I dont know but looking into the future, surely there will be less flu spread as people are more aware of hand hygiene and how to avoid it. That should have an impact for years to come.
Well that's an optimistic view! Personally I'd like it if more people learned to wash their hands after using the toilet!!
But there may be some truth in it, that it is raising some awareness of hygiene (regarding fomites particularly).
On a similar habit-changing note, I'd be tempted to go on a corona-related anti-smoking drive if I was in power. If you catch this thing - and even vigilant hand-washing can't guarantee you will avoid it forever - you definitely want your lungs in the best possible shape, and even a couple of months off the cigarettes gives them a bit of recovery time. (Though whether or not that would be clinically significant I don't know...) The UK's remaining smokers seem to be a fairly change-resistant bunch so an additional prod to kick the habit wouldn't go amiss - the NHS claims smoking leads to 78,000 deaths per year so still an important issue!
OT I see the City v Arsenal game has been rescheduled for next week, so there's a slim but still there possibility for the season to end at Goodison Park.
Anyone know where I can get some handgel to get rid of the germs from hoping United wins a game?
OT I see the City v Arsenal game has been rescheduled for next week, so there's a slim but still there possibility for the season to end at Goodison Park.
Anyone know where I can get some handgel to get rid of the germs from hoping United wins a game?
Arsenal have more chance of catching COVID-19 at the Etihad than they do of getting any points.
OT I see the City v Arsenal game has been rescheduled for next week, so there's a slim but still there possibility for the season to end at Goodison Park.
Anyone know where I can get some handgel to get rid of the germs from hoping United wins a game?
Arsenal have more chance of catching COVID-19 at the Etihad than they do of getting any points.
And who knows, perhaps the public over there will equate 'nasty foreign virus' with 'nasty foreign people' and instinctively want more Insularity and Walls.
Completely off-topic, but I used to do a fair bit of work in Tower Hamlets back when Lutfur Rahman was mayor. His glowing face would beam down on me (or at least a very large, smart photograph of it would) from the temporary walls around all the construction sites and reconstruction projects, from advertising hoardings and so on, all proclaiming the various forms of progress coming to the borough courtesy of "Lutfur Rhaman, Mayor of Tower Hamlets". To reiterate, these were not party-political ads, merely helpful messages of information brought to me via the generosity of Tower Hamlets council and its fortuitous taxpayers who were kindly picking up the tab for informing me.
Felt a lot like I had ventured to some rather less democratic country and was being confronted wherever I looked by The Boss himself.
Now I am not even a fan of what Guido (partisanly, naturally) reports as Sadiq Khan’s been usurping TfL’s political advertising ban for months by plastering his name all over GLA information posters and highlighting his single ticket price freeze policy, described in large wording on posters as “part of the commitment by the Mayor, Sadiq Khan to make travel in London more affordable” but at least that doesn't feature his beaming mugshot. Annoys me every time I use the Tube nonetheless.
This isn't a partisan thing, politicians of any stripe doing it would tick me off. And we don't seem to tolerate the equivalent from our national politicians. We don't see giant signs proclaiming "Welcome to Peterborough City Hospital, Brought To You By The Inspirational Leadership of Matt Hancock In Fulfilment of His Wise Manifesto Commitments matthancocksbenevolentcheesygrinbeamsdownuponyou.jpeg"
Images of Gavin Williamson do not adorn our classrooms, "Ben Wallace Woz Ere As Part Of His Profoundly Personal Mission To Protect You All" is not inscribed upon the side of our tanks and frigates. We just wouldn't have it.
Yet Mayors now seem to be springing up everywhere, even of places that sound rather more like they should have a County Council Senior Officer than a Super Mayor. All the parties seem rather too enamoured with the concept and I fear it is going to make administrative politics ever more personal.
Is there any way we could depersonalise things to, maybe, "The Office of The Mayor Of London has committed to making travel affordable" and take names out of the stuff the public are paying for?
To be fair, he is an enormous arse, quite beyond the mean.
tbf, he seems to be using "talent" in the sense of people working for her -- not that she is untalented but that she could not attract a top team around her.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112v1.full.pdf ...Our findings indicate key pieces of information that are still required to know how the current SARS-CoV-2 outbreak will unfold. Most crucially, longitudinal serological studies from patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 could indicate whether or not immunity wanes, and at what rate. According to our projections, this rate is the key modulator of the total SARS-CoV-2 incidence in the coming years. While long-lasting immunity would lead to lower overall incidence of infection, it would also complicate vaccine efficacy trials by contributing to low case numbers when those trials are conducted, as occurred with Zika virus (31). Furthermore, our findings underscore the need to maintain SARS-CoV-2 surveillance even if the outbreak appears to die out after the first pandemic wave, as a resurgence in infection could be possible as late as 2025.
In summary, the total incidence of COVID-19 illness over the next five years will depend critically upon whether or not it enters into regular circulation after the initial pandemic wave, which in turn depends primarily upon the duration of immunity that SARS-CoV-2 infection imparts. The intensity and timing of pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks will depend on the time of year when widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection becomes established and, to a lesser degree, upon the magnitude of seasonal variation in transmissibility and the level of cross- immunity that exists between the betacoronaviruses. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently required to determine the duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2, and epidemiological surveillance should be maintained in the coming years to anticipate the possibility of resurgence...
Completely off-topic, but I used to do a fair bit of work in Tower Hamlets back when Lutfur Rahman was mayor. His glowing face would beam down on me (or at least a very large, smart photograph of it would) from the temporary walls around all the construction sites and reconstruction projects, from advertising hoardings and so on, all proclaiming the various forms of progress coming to the borough courtesy of "Lutfur Rhaman, Mayor of Tower Hamlets". To reiterate, these were not party-political ads, merely helpful messages of information brought to me via the generosity of Tower Hamlets council and its fortuitous taxpayers who were kindly picking up the tab for informing me.
Felt a lot like I had ventured to some rather less democratic country and was being confronted wherever I looked by The Boss himself.
Now I am not even a fan of what Guido (partisanly, naturally) reports as Sadiq Khan’s been usurping TfL’s political advertising ban for months by plastering his name all over GLA information posters and highlighting his single ticket price freeze policy, described in large wording on posters as “part of the commitment by the Mayor, Sadiq Khan to make travel in London more affordable” but at least that doesn't feature his beaming mugshot. Annoys me every time I use the Tube nonetheless.
This isn't a partisan thing, politicians of any stripe doing it would tick me off. And we don't seem to tolerate the equivalent from our national politicians. We don't see giant signs proclaiming "Welcome to Peterborough City Hospital, Brought To You By The Inspirational Leadership of Matt Hancock In Fulfilment of His Wise Manifesto Commitments matthancocksbenevolentcheesygrinbeamsdownuponyou.jpeg"
Images of Gavin Williamson do not adorn our classrooms, "Ben Wallace Woz Ere As Part Of His Profoundly Personal Mission To Protect You All" is not inscribed upon the side of our tanks and frigates. We just wouldn't have it.
Yet Mayors now seem to be springing up everywhere, even of places that sound rather more like they should have a County Council Senior Officer than a Super Mayor. All the parties seem rather too enamoured with the concept and I fear it is going to make administrative politics ever more personal.
Is there any way we could depersonalise things to, maybe, "The Office of The Mayor Of London has committed to making travel affordable" and take names out of the stuff the public are paying for?
Boris Island and Boris Bridge/Tunnel suggest we are moving to it nationally.....if we elect on cult of personalities rather than capabilities or policies, then what do we expect?
He had the US economy just where he wanted it going into 2020.
And then something nobody could do anything about really hove into view.
But he mismanaged the initial response.
He pre-mismanaged the response when he sacked the entire CDC pandemic response team.
When I went Inter-railing around Europe in the late seventies I asked if I needed a Smallpox jab - “no, it’s been eradicated”. Not long after I set off a poor lab worker in Birmingham contracted it and subsequently died - I made it back to the UK before travel restrictions started.
Very good point indeed and I totally agree. Elevation of the politician over policy is fascist. Also hate the fetishization of the People. For example, the "People's Government" attempted branding of this administration. That is fascist too.
Very good point indeed and I totally agree. Elevation of the politician over policy is fascist. Also hate the fetishization of the People. For example, the "People's Government" attempted branding of this administration. That is fascist too.
Looks like there could be more active cases in Europe than China soon?
Personally, I'm very skeptical of the numbers coming out of China.
Not least how many of the family's welded in to there blocks of flats are being tested, treated or recorded?
I haven't seen anything about that since the original video at the beginning of last month. Do you have any more evidence of it ?
Google it. There's any amount of video and stills. Fck knows how much if any is genuine, but note that at least one video has multiple uniformed police and a marked police vehicle in it. A bit harder and more dangerous to fake than getting your mate to lie still under a blanket.
Boris Island and Boris Bridge/Tunnel suggest we are moving to it nationally.....if we elect on cult of personalities rather than capabilities or policies, then what do we expect?
Yes there's an "it's our own stupid fault" element to it (and you could add "Boris Bikes" to that list back to his time in London) but these terms in many ways represent the habits - even laziness? - of journalists rather than the official names of the proposals. And although it's a fine distinction I like how certain official pronouncements technically come from "HM Government" or "The UK Government" rather than "Boris Johnson, PM" even if it's his voice box the words are emanating from....
Very good point indeed and I totally agree. Elevation of the politician over policy is fascist. Also hate the fetishization of the People. For example, the "People's Government" attempted branding of this administration. That is fascist too.
"Boris" and his "People's Government".
No. No.
Yes!! See above. Craig Brown (the satirist, not the football manager) used to skewer Tony Blair over this, inserting "People's" all over the place in his versions of Blair's speeches.
I think this constant reporting of numbers of confirmed cases of and deaths caused by Covid19 are really unhelpful. We don't have the faintest idea of how many unconfirmed cases there have been, nor how many of the deaths would have happened soon enough anyway. I believe the people hungry for such information have a disturbingly macabre fascination. We can be warned about the dangers of the virus without all of the dubious detail.
BTW in response to other posts about China's numbers and accuracy.
I understand that outside Hubei province they only test if there is a proven travel history involving Hubei.... now Hubei is locked down and this will exclude community outbreaks......
I think this constant reporting of numbers of confirmed cases of and deaths caused by Covid19 are really unhelpful. We don't have the faintest idea of how many unconfirmed cases there have been, nor how many of the deaths would have happened soon enough anyway. I believe the people hungry for such information have a disturbingly macabre fascination. We can be warned about the dangers of the virus without all of the dubious detail.
I'd strongly argue the case for fewer data.
At this stage, if you want to cause real panic, stop reporting the numbers.
I think this constant reporting of numbers of confirmed cases of and deaths caused by Covid19 are really unhelpful. We don't have the faintest idea of how many unconfirmed cases there have been, nor how many of the deaths would have happened soon enough anyway. I believe the people hungry for such information have a disturbingly macabre fascination. We can be warned about the dangers of the virus without all of the dubious detail.
I'd strongly argue the case for fewer data.
I think there'd be even more hysteria without the data, rampant speculation, rumour etc. Trusting in transparency is keeping people, to some extent, calm. (Ah, now see @Benpointer already pointed that out)
The problem is people looking at the data and trying to extrapolate and/or getting excited over small variations from that trend in either direction (these are still, statistically, small numbers from a random process, so noisy).
I think this constant reporting of numbers of confirmed cases of and deaths caused by Covid19 are really unhelpful. We don't have the faintest idea of how many unconfirmed cases there have been, nor how many of the deaths would have happened soon enough anyway. I believe the people hungry for such information have a disturbingly macabre fascination. We can be warned about the dangers of the virus without all of the dubious detail.
I'd strongly argue the case for fewer data.
At this stage, if you want to cause real panic, stop reporting the numbers.
I confess to going from detached bleakness to getting quite personally scared. I have a few underlying health issues that I'd rather not lay bare before this bastard virus.
Moving from the medical to the economic, how is the coronavirus going to impact the economy in the next 6-12 months?
Flash data for February will no doubt start to tell a story of sorts though today's payroll data from the US was very strong.
What will it mean for Sunak and his economic plans? Back in 2008, Brown was derailed because his grandiose spending plans relied not only on borrowing but on strong growth to keep the revenue side strong primarily through tax receipts.
When the economy essentially stopped with the lack of liquidity in the banking sector and all that didn't flow, the collapse in income tax, VAT and corporation tax receipts was rapid and dramatic and left Brown's spending plans to be financed only by more borrowing.
The 2010 solution to the escalating deficit was to cut £5 of spending for every £1 raised by additional taxes.
In 2020, Sunak's problem stems from the notion the economy needs as such stimulus as possible to offset any potential economic dislocation resulting from our exit of the EU to WTO rules at the end of the year. Hence big capital spending projects and the like to create work to get in taxes - Keynes would be proud.
The problem is what will happen if the economy freezes up because of supply issues from abroad and sickness at home. It's entirely possible the dislocation will be temporary but could be severe.
The risk is the interruption to revenue will force deficit expenditure higher (with additional expenditure likely to be incurred combating the coronavirus) so a higher debt meaning more borrowing.
Will this mean capital expenditure projects are put on hold for 6-12 months or will we be looking at tax cuts to try to re-stimulate the economy (not effective in this situation) or tax rises? It's a dilemma and I suspect even by Budget time Sunak won't have real clarity as to the impacts of this "black swan" event.
Of course I know it's not the full picture - there will an unknown number of unreported infections, and probably unreported deaths too. But still, them's the numbers we have.
PS: We also don't know how many of the cutrrently unrecovered cases will result in further deaths.
What a character! And not to scare you off me or anything - I'd hate to do that - but once when the balance of my mind was disturbed I had all my hair shaved off and went on a bit of a rampage around the Shepherds Market area. Ended up with me "self isolating" for a week. Now here I am wearing elasticated trousers and fretting about a virus. Time changes so much.
Of course I know it's not the full picture - there will an unknown number of unreported infections, and probably unreported deaths too. But still, them's the numbers we have.
PS: We also don't know how many of the cutrrently unrecovered cases will result in further deaths.
So it's not accurate? As you yourself say, it's not the full picture.
This article has prompted an argument between two people I quite like - namely Andrew Doyle, creator of Titania McGrath, and Peter Hitchens, who isn't a fan. He also usually seems to dislike Nick Cohen, so something for everyone here!
This article has prompted an argument between two people I quite like - namely Andrew Doyle, creator of Titania McGrath, and Peter Hitchens, who isn't a fan. He also usually seems to dislike Nick Cohen, so something for everyone here!
Titania McGrath has had a couple of good moments but there's a lot of dross. Nick Cohen's comments about the quality are fair enough.
I don't agree with his rationale as to why the right has produced such poor satire of the left. I think it's simply a matter of the quality of the writers.
This article has prompted an argument between two people I quite like - namely Andrew Doyle, creator of Titania McGrath, and Peter Hitchens, who isn't a fan. He also usually seems to dislike Nick Cohen, so something for everyone here!
Titania McGrath has had a couple of good moments but there's a lot of dross. Nick Cohen's comments about the quality are fair enough.
I don't agree with his rationale as to why the right has produced such poor satire of the left. I think it's simply a matter of the quality of the writers.
How on earth can any right-leaning satirical writers compete with Richard Burgon or Polly Toynbee?
It's not typical for a govt to win an election with such poor ratings but those that do win usually get favourable ratings for a while (May's didn't but that was probably related to her underperforming expectations so badly).
4:00pm Fifth person dies in Spain A fifth patient has died from Covid-19 in Spain as the number of people infected with coronavirus jumped overnight by 102 case to 365, according to the country’s health officials.
All the victims so far in the country have been people in high-risk categories, elderly or suffering from a pre-existing condition, AFP quoted Fernando Simon of the Spanish health ministry as saying.
Madrid and the surrounding area has the highest concentration of cases, at 137, after health officials found clusters at two elderly care centres. Both have since been closed.
3:58pm Coronavirus is unlikely to disappear in summer, says WHO Speaking at the World Health Organization's daily briefing, Dr Mike Ryan said it is "a false hope" that coronavirus will just disappear in the summer like flu.
This article has prompted an argument between two people I quite like - namely Andrew Doyle, creator of Titania McGrath, and Peter Hitchens, who isn't a fan. He also usually seems to dislike Nick Cohen, so something for everyone here!
Titania McGrath has had a couple of good moments but there's a lot of dross. Nick Cohen's comments about the quality are fair enough.
I don't agree with his rationale as to why the right has produced such poor satire of the left. I think it's simply a matter of the quality of the writers.
A piece of advice I once got was that I should take on my opponents strongest argument, rather than caricature their weakest, when debating. Obviously I don't follow it all the time, the opportunity for a piss take is often too tempting, but I reckon political commentators, & politicians themselves, could do with adhering to it.
The James O'Brien critique of "Patriotic Breakfast" earlier this week is one that bugged me. I dont know of anyone who really thinks Brexit means the UK becoming a self sufficient nation like Tom and Barbara from The Good Life, where any non UK products are prohibited. I reckon O'Brien is probably clever enough to know that, his schooling cost enough, yet he went in feet first in the manner of a Brexiteer convinced that remaining a member of the EU meant compulsory German lessons, and people lapped it up
This article has prompted an argument between two people I quite like - namely Andrew Doyle, creator of Titania McGrath, and Peter Hitchens, who isn't a fan. He also usually seems to dislike Nick Cohen, so something for everyone here!
... and whatever happened to the slimming food 'Ayds'?
I remember in the late 80s when I was a student in Aberdeen, there used to be an old drilling company called Aberdeen International Drilling Services. Not sure what happened to them or their business cards.
Coronavirus is unlikely to disappear in summer, says WHO Speaking at the World Health Organization's daily briefing, Dr Mike Ryan said it is "a false hope" that coronavirus will just disappear in the summer like flu.
Well, it isn’t summer “everywhere” in “the summer” in the northern hemisphere. But the so far lower infection rates in currently warm countries may give some cause for possible optimism.
This article has prompted an argument between two people I quite like - namely Andrew Doyle, creator of Titania McGrath, and Peter Hitchens, who isn't a fan. He also usually seems to dislike Nick Cohen, so something for everyone here!
Does Peter Hitchens like anyone ?
Bishop George Bell, George Orwell... erm...
I actually spoke to him on the phone a few years ago, and when I started to rubbish Russell Brand, who he had clashed with many times on tv around that time, he started to be a lot more positive about RB than I had ever heard him before! So, a contrarian no doubt.
This article has prompted an argument between two people I quite like - namely Andrew Doyle, creator of Titania McGrath, and Peter Hitchens, who isn't a fan. He also usually seems to dislike Nick Cohen, so something for everyone here!
Titania McGrath has had a couple of good moments but there's a lot of dross. Nick Cohen's comments about the quality are fair enough.
I don't agree with his rationale as to why the right has produced such poor satire of the left. I think it's simply a matter of the quality of the writers.
A piece of advice I once got was that I should take on my opponents strongest argument, rather than caricature their weakest, when debating. Obviously I don't follow it all the time, the opportunity for a piss take is often too tempting, but I reckon political commentators, & politicians themselves, could do with adhering to it.
The James O'Brien critique of "Patriotic Breakfast" earlier this week is one that bugged me. I dont know of anyone who really thinks Brexit means the UK becoming a self sufficient nation like Tom and Barbara from The Good Life, where any non UK products are prohibited. I reckon O'Brien is probably clever enough to know that, his schooling cost enough, yet he went in feet first in the manner of a Brexiteer convinced that remaining a member of the EU meant compulsory German lessons, and people lapped it up
I've heard Peter Hitchens pine for the days when we made our own shoes.
We’re seeing a political obituary written tweet by tweet
The only two metrics Trump values are the Dow and ratings. Neither is a reliable predictor of future developments.
I heard Larry Ludlow on CNN early this afternoon talk the most idiotic tosh you could imagine. According to him the crisis has all but gone in China, that the US pharmaceutical industry will have treatments in the next few months, and referencing the outbreak in Seattle he said 'just do not go there'
This is just irresponsible nonsense and it does make you wonder what happens when reality kicks in
Another Princess ship of the coast of California is in quarantine and prohibited from landing with over 2,000 guests on board. I really would not book a cruise at present under any circumstances
Comments
But there may be some truth in it, that it is raising some awareness of hygiene (regarding fomites particularly).
On a similar habit-changing note, I'd be tempted to go on a corona-related anti-smoking drive if I was in power. If you catch this thing - and even vigilant hand-washing can't guarantee you will avoid it forever - you definitely want your lungs in the best possible shape, and even a couple of months off the cigarettes gives them a bit of recovery time. (Though whether or not that would be clinically significant I don't know...) The UK's remaining smokers seem to be a fairly change-resistant bunch so an additional prod to kick the habit wouldn't go amiss - the NHS claims smoking leads to 78,000 deaths per year so still an important issue!
I mean if we’re going to hell in a handcart why not make it fun and the chance to win money.
#IDoNotHaveAGamblingProblem
Then I remember I have a few underlying health issues that Covid-19 likes.
https://twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/1235885735074500608
Anyone know where I can get some handgel to get rid of the germs from hoping United wins a game?
Oh come on, you'd be gutted too.
Look at today's payrolls numbers.
He had the US economy just where he wanted it going into 2020.
And then something nobody could do anything about really hove into view.
I was really only posting that for the sake of a bad pun....
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1235938839434350598
Not least how many of the family's welded in to there blocks of flats are being tested, treated or recorded?
https://twitter.com/jamescrisp6/status/1235816306529587201?s=21
The relationship we have with China is one of the conversations we may be having if and when we get a handle on this.
Look at the large and growing tory Huawei rebellion in the tory ranks.
But TBF Trump has had a good run of the balls.
And who knows, perhaps the public over there will equate 'nasty foreign virus' with 'nasty foreign people' and instinctively want more Insularity and Walls.
Completely off-topic, but I used to do a fair bit of work in Tower Hamlets back when Lutfur Rahman was mayor. His glowing face would beam down on me (or at least a very large, smart photograph of it would) from the temporary walls around all the construction sites and reconstruction projects, from advertising hoardings and so on, all proclaiming the various forms of progress coming to the borough courtesy of "Lutfur Rhaman, Mayor of Tower Hamlets". To reiterate, these were not party-political ads, merely helpful messages of information brought to me via the generosity of Tower Hamlets council and its fortuitous taxpayers who were kindly picking up the tab for informing me.
Felt a lot like I had ventured to some rather less democratic country and was being confronted wherever I looked by The Boss himself.
Now I am not even a fan of what Guido (partisanly, naturally) reports as Sadiq Khan’s been usurping TfL’s political advertising ban for months by plastering his name all over GLA information posters and highlighting his single ticket price freeze policy, described in large wording on posters as “part of the commitment by the Mayor, Sadiq Khan to make travel in London more affordable” but at least that doesn't feature his beaming mugshot. Annoys me every time I use the Tube nonetheless.
This isn't a partisan thing, politicians of any stripe doing it would tick me off. And we don't seem to tolerate the equivalent from our national politicians. We don't see giant signs proclaiming "Welcome to Peterborough City Hospital, Brought To You By The Inspirational Leadership of Matt Hancock In Fulfilment of His Wise Manifesto Commitments matthancocksbenevolentcheesygrinbeamsdownuponyou.jpeg"
Images of Gavin Williamson do not adorn our classrooms, "Ben Wallace Woz Ere As Part Of His Profoundly Personal Mission To Protect You All" is not inscribed upon the side of our tanks and frigates. We just wouldn't have it.
Yet Mayors now seem to be springing up everywhere, even of places that sound rather more like they should have a County Council Senior Officer than a Super Mayor. All the parties seem rather too enamoured with the concept and I fear it is going to make administrative politics ever more personal.
Is there any way we could depersonalise things to, maybe, "The Office of The Mayor Of London has committed to making travel affordable" and take names out of the stuff the public are paying for?
Do you have any more evidence of it ?
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112v1.full.pdf
...Our findings indicate key pieces of information that are still required to know how the current SARS-CoV-2 outbreak will unfold. Most crucially, longitudinal serological studies from patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 could indicate whether or not immunity wanes, and at what rate. According to our projections, this rate is the key modulator of the total SARS-CoV-2 incidence in the coming years. While long-lasting immunity would lead to lower overall incidence of infection, it would also complicate vaccine efficacy trials by contributing to low case numbers when those trials are conducted, as occurred with Zika virus (31). Furthermore, our findings underscore the need to maintain SARS-CoV-2 surveillance even if the outbreak appears to die out after the first pandemic wave, as a resurgence in infection could be possible as late as 2025.
In summary, the total incidence of COVID-19 illness over the next five years will depend critically upon whether or not it enters into regular circulation after the initial pandemic wave, which in turn depends primarily upon the duration of immunity that SARS-CoV-2 infection imparts. The intensity and timing of pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks will depend on the time of year when widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection becomes established and, to a lesser degree, upon the magnitude of seasonal variation in transmissibility and the level of cross- immunity that exists between the betacoronaviruses. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently required to determine the duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2, and epidemiological surveillance should be maintained in the coming years to anticipate the possibility of resurgence...
Very good point indeed and I totally agree. Elevation of the politician over policy is fascist. Also hate the fetishization of the People. For example, the "People's Government" attempted branding of this administration. That is fascist too.
"Boris" and his "People's Government".
No. No.
Edit: Yes!! See above. Craig Brown (the satirist, not the football manager) used to skewer Tony Blair over this, inserting "People's" all over the place in his versions of Blair's speeches.
Can you use it as after shave?
I'd strongly argue the case for fewer data.
'Avoid visiting elderly relatives' - Macron
On Friday, the French president called on people in France to limit trips to homes for the elderly.
"We must avoid visiting our elderly relatives as much as possible," Emmanuel Macron said on a visit to a retirement home in Paris.
Er?.... Presumably if they are not your relatives and you need a photo-opportunity it's just fine.
Alternatively, surely real aftershave will kill covid-19 too?
BTW in response to other posts about China's numbers and accuracy.
I understand that outside Hubei province they only test if there is a proven travel history involving Hubei.... now Hubei is locked down and this will exclude community outbreaks......
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8082899/Doctor-says-pandemic-quite-useful-killing-bed-blockers.html
But "People's Government" is a bit more (potentially) sinister than crass, self-serving euphemism.
I do not like it. It's not cricket.
That kills ALL known germs ... DEAD.
The problem is people looking at the data and trying to extrapolate and/or getting excited over small variations from that trend in either direction (these are still, statistically, small numbers from a random process, so noisy).
I think they're getting this right.
Moving from the medical to the economic, how is the coronavirus going to impact the economy in the next 6-12 months?
Flash data for February will no doubt start to tell a story of sorts though today's payroll data from the US was very strong.
What will it mean for Sunak and his economic plans? Back in 2008, Brown was derailed because his grandiose spending plans relied not only on borrowing but on strong growth to keep the revenue side strong primarily through tax receipts.
When the economy essentially stopped with the lack of liquidity in the banking sector and all that didn't flow, the collapse in income tax, VAT and corporation tax receipts was rapid and dramatic and left Brown's spending plans to be financed only by more borrowing.
The 2010 solution to the escalating deficit was to cut £5 of spending for every £1 raised by additional taxes.
In 2020, Sunak's problem stems from the notion the economy needs as such stimulus as possible to offset any potential economic dislocation resulting from our exit of the EU to WTO rules at the end of the year. Hence big capital spending projects and the like to create work to get in taxes - Keynes would be proud.
The problem is what will happen if the economy freezes up because of supply issues from abroad and sickness at home. It's entirely possible the dislocation will be temporary but could be severe.
The risk is the interruption to revenue will force deficit expenditure higher (with additional expenditure likely to be incurred combating the coronavirus) so a higher debt meaning more borrowing.
Will this mean capital expenditure projects are put on hold for 6-12 months or will we be looking at tax cuts to try to re-stimulate the economy (not effective in this situation) or tax rises? It's a dilemma and I suspect even by Budget time Sunak won't have real clarity as to the impacts of this "black swan" event.
See also: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Of course I know it's not the full picture - there will an unknown number of unreported infections, and probably unreported deaths too. But still, them's the numbers we have.
PS: We also don't know how many of the cutrrently unrecovered cases will result in further deaths.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1235946635047374849?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1235952805581447173?s=20
We’re seeing a political obituary written tweet by tweet
At least dogs are taking this virus risk seriously. But are their owners also going to cancel?
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/mar/06/crufts-brexit-fewer-dogs-kennel-club
One billion Android devices at risk of hacking
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51751950
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanhatesthis/trump-supporters-coronavirus-deep-state-qanon
I don't agree with his rationale as to why the right has produced such poor satire of the left. I think it's simply a matter of the quality of the writers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxJDobrrOYA
The unnamed patient in his 80s is thought to have succumbed to COVID-19 last night while being treated at Milton Keynes Hospital, Bucks.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-uk-news-cases-latest-update-covid-19-live/
4:00pm
Fifth person dies in Spain
A fifth patient has died from Covid-19 in Spain as the number of people infected with coronavirus jumped overnight by 102 case to 365, according to the country’s health officials.
All the victims so far in the country have been people in high-risk categories, elderly or suffering from a pre-existing condition, AFP quoted Fernando Simon of the Spanish health ministry as saying.
Madrid and the surrounding area has the highest concentration of cases, at 137, after health officials found clusters at two elderly care centres. Both have since been closed.
3:58pm
Coronavirus is unlikely to disappear in summer, says WHO
Speaking at the World Health Organization's daily briefing, Dr Mike Ryan said it is "a false hope" that coronavirus will just disappear in the summer like flu.
The James O'Brien critique of "Patriotic Breakfast" earlier this week is one that bugged me. I dont know of anyone who really thinks Brexit means the UK becoming a self sufficient nation like Tom and Barbara from The Good Life, where any non UK products are prohibited. I reckon O'Brien is probably clever enough to know that, his schooling cost enough, yet he went in feet first in the manner of a Brexiteer convinced that remaining a member of the EU meant compulsory German lessons, and people lapped it up
I actually spoke to him on the phone a few years ago, and when I started to rubbish Russell Brand, who he had clashed with many times on tv around that time, he started to be a lot more positive about RB than I had ever heard him before! So, a contrarian no doubt.
https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1235961685611024390?s=20
This is just irresponsible nonsense and it does make you wonder what happens when reality kicks in
Another Princess ship of the coast of California is in quarantine and prohibited from landing with over 2,000 guests on board. I really would not book a cruise at present under any circumstances
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235963710939844610?s=20