I think this constant reporting of numbers of confirmed cases of and deaths caused by Covid19 are really unhelpful. We don't have the faintest idea of how many unconfirmed cases there have been, nor how many of the deaths would have happened soon enough anyway. I believe the people hungry for such information have a disturbingly macabre fascination. We can be warned about the dangers of the virus without all of the dubious detail.
I'd strongly argue the case for fewer data.
At this stage, if you want to cause real panic, stop reporting the numbers.
I have a few days holiday coming up thanks to our event in Dublin being called off. There are some options, but I’m genuinely not sure what to do: 1. Use the tickets paid for and non-refundable to go to Dublin anyway and have a look around Ireland for a few days. 2. Write the tickets off and do a British trip instead 3. Stay at home because now is not the time to be travelling.
I figure that hotels, restaurants and other places need people to still be out and about, but I worry that right now it’s not the right thing to do.
Thoughts?
The chances of getting the bug in the UK at a restaurant or hotel at the moment are absolutely minuscule, and not necessarily any higher than staying at home and going out to do the shopping or meeting friends. A trip around Ireland would also be very safe.
And you don't want to go anywhere with a crap health system.
This is the key point in my view. Travelling doesn't look inherently more dangerous than staying in Britain in the medium term for picking up the infection. So the only question is whether you will get adequate healthcare if you catch it wherever you're going.
Is travelling/flying not significantly higher risk? I reckon I average 3 or 4 colds a year, close to one of which seems to start when Im flying somewhere.
A very real danger to the health of Americans and the rest of us
And the rest of us......
Indeed.
I wonder whether, despite the impending consequences of Trump's ostrich approach not having cut through to Americans yet, whether this could turn so quickly that Trump is unseated by his own party before November, even though the base looks solid as of today.
Remind me, is the 25th amendment, potentially on both Trump and his VP, the sole practical means of doing this?
In theory, Republicans vote on the presidential candidate at their convention, but Trump is running mostly unopposed or against a no-hoper Bill Weld, who has one delegate out of 1,400 allocated so far from primaries. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Republican_National_Convention
Trump has cleverly put Pence in full charge of virus and the president is now concentrating on campaigning as far as I can see.
Pence will get all the blame under Trump's cunning plan.
Will it work?
Blame it all on Pence? People would have to be dumber than dumb to fall for that. So, yes, I can see it working.
For how long might it work? A week later could Trump get away with blaming Pence's replacement? Or would he take command himself? An iconic leader such as he is must be seen to exercise helmsmanship in a time of national crisis, and not merely by appointing people (or issuing tweets).
One of the few interesting things I've read on PB about Coronavirus was the account of the 25 year old sufferer who has since recovered. Assuming there is no vaccine on the near horizon, I am wondering what the most effective protocol to treat a case is. Given that difficulty breathing is one of the worst symptoms, do asthma inhalers have a beneficial effect? Given that we don't want sufferers to bring the lurgy to their local GP surgery, should Corona packs that can be posted through letterboxes be a thing?
My wife and I decided today not to book a trip to a sporting event at the end of this month, no-one is going to book travel for an event that could end up being cancelled.
Don't think I'd fancy holding Boeing shares right now either, coming on top of the 737 max's unfortunate habit of flying itself into terrain.
Yep, I know that, I’m just wondering if it’s good form.
I don't see why not, the hotels and restaurants need the business.
Yep, that is true. I am also figuring that there are probably some very good deals to be had right now: suites for the price of a single room!
I would not travel abroad atm - the risk of being stranded/quarantined and a worry to f & f. Also would not wish to be an additional burden on the FO and another country.
We have local elections on 7 May, including London Assembly/Mayor. That may well be at the peak of the Covid-19 epidemic. How is that going to affect the election? Lower turnout, particularly among the old? Reduced campaigning? A focus on health issues?
Postponed. Almost a certainty now I would say.
Something last done in 2001, during the Foot and Mouth outbreak. Required primary legislation at the time, I wonder if that’s still the case now?
I think the Civil Contingencies Act came after that and provides the statutory power to delay elections in this sort of situation.
Henrietta's model G (happily, the most optimistic of the three) is looking the best at the moment.
"G" expected, at the end of Friday March 6. 21,995 cases. At the moment there are 20,943, but all of America and Canada is yet to come (esp the West Coast) so it may well end up very accurate.
Just had this from a contact in Silicon Valley ...
"Santa Clara County health officials are encouraging people not to go to events and companies here to stop events. Facebook is now 100% WFH in the bay area. twitter/square are WW... it's a bit crazy."
We are now entering the full-scale US panic cycle. It's a country that only knows how to do extreme complacency or total hysteria.
NB “This is what the start of a recession after a long bull market feels like,” said John McClain, a portfolio manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management. “This is the first day of seeing some panic in the market.”
I have a few days holiday coming up thanks to our event in Dublin being called off. There are some options, but I’m genuinely not sure what to do: 1. Use the tickets paid for and non-refundable to go to Dublin anyway and have a look around Ireland for a few days. 2. Write the tickets off and do a British trip instead 3. Stay at home because now is not the time to be travelling.
I figure that hotels, restaurants and other places need people to still be out and about, but I worry that right now it’s not the right thing to do.
Thoughts?
The chances of getting the bug in the UK at a restaurant or hotel at the moment are absolutely minuscule, and not necessarily any higher than staying at home and going out to do the shopping or meeting friends. A trip around Ireland would also be very safe.
And you don't want to go anywhere with a crap health system.
This is the key point in my view. Travelling doesn't look inherently more dangerous than staying in Britain in the medium term for picking up the infection. So the only question is whether you will get adequate healthcare if you catch it wherever you're going.
Or are prepared to be quarantined abroad or here when you come home
Yes, exactly. This is no small risk. It's happened to thousands of people in China who got caught the wrong side of a lockdown when it was imposed.
Wives separated from husbands, parents from children, frail grandparents from their carers.
It's not funny. It can last for months, in Wuhan it is still ongoing. There have been reports of suicide.
If you go away, consider how you and your loved ones would cope if you couldn't get back, for weeks or months on end.
In our case not a problem being retired but for most fair comment
My wife and I decided today not to book a trip to a sporting event at the end of this month, no-one is going to book travel for an event that could end up being cancelled.
Don't think I'd fancy holding Boeing shares right now either, coming on top of the 737 max's unfortunate habit of flying itself into terrain.
There’s going to be a lot of cancelled orders and a lot of people looking to offload surplus aircraft. Most airlines lease their planes, so it’s costing them tens of thousands of dollars a day to have one sitting on the ground if demand has dropped off, plus all the crews and parking fees.
We have local elections on 7 May, including London Assembly/Mayor. That may well be at the peak of the Covid-19 epidemic. How is that going to affect the election? Lower turnout, particularly among the old? Reduced campaigning? A focus on health issues?
Postponed. Almost a certainty now I would say.
Something last done in 2001, during the Foot and Mouth outbreak. Required primary legislation at the time, I wonder if that’s still the case now?
As I mentioned yesterday I am pretty sure it could be done using the Civil Contingencies Act.
Trump has cleverly put Pence in full charge of virus and the president is now concentrating on campaigning as far as I can see.
Pence will get all the blame under Trump's cunning plan.
Will it work?
Blame it all on Pence? People would have to be dumber than dumb to fall for that. So, yes, I can see it working.
For how long might it work? A week later could Trump get away with blaming Pence's replacement? Or would he take command himself? An iconic leader such as he is must be seen to exercise helmsmanship in a time of national crisis, and not merely by appointing people (or issuing tweets).
USA wouldn’t have corona if Obama had been tougher on the virus.
Just watching ITV Wales testing kits are now available and if anyone becomes unwell a practice nurse will attend the home and do the testing with a result in 2 to 3 days
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Trump has cleverly put Pence in full charge of virus and the president is now concentrating on campaigning as far as I can see.
Pence will get all the blame under Trump's cunning plan.
Will it work?
Blame it all on Pence? People would have to be dumber than dumb to fall for that. So, yes, I can see it working.
For how long might it work? A week later could Trump get away with blaming Pence's replacement? Or would he take command himself? An iconic leader such as he is must be seen to exercise helmsmanship in a time of national crisis, and not merely by appointing people (or issuing tweets).
USA wouldn’t have corona if Obama had been tougher on the virus.
Without looking at the details, I am not surprised. What's the government done?
Well, oven-ready Brexit but that's not improved anyone's life and if it turns out a lot of Brexit voters were not really voting on Brexit but against decline in general -- and Arron Banks and Dominic Cummings would agree with that -- then where are we? Any genuinely hardcore Brexiteers might see that we are still in a transition period so they won't be happy either. And that is betting without the natural Labour voters in the red wall seats.
So what has the government done? It's got Carrie pregnant and exiled Harry and Meghan but what else?
Your last sentence is just nasty.
Carrie being pregnant and Harry and Megan have nothing to do with HMG
Some people need to grow up
I think it was meant to satirical, so I think you may need to do the growing up.
The achievements of this government are pretty difficult to identify. We have a blustering PM who is in thrall to a very unsavoury "advisor" and a Home Sec who is likely to find herself in an employment tribunal for bullying. This is a government that already stinks of incompetence, which for a supposed Tory government is not a good look.
It's very early days in this government but so far it has been 10/10 great.
A renegotiated deal that was supposed to be impossible has been negotiated and implemented. The threat of Corbyn has been dealt with. HS2 decision made. The coronavirus outbreak has been dealt with well so far.
Early days still but nothing to criticise so far.
A Home Sec in an employment tribunal for bullying? Your tribal loyalty is as quaint as your belief in the fairytale of Brexit.
I am afraid that it is you who continues to display your normal tribal bias. You hate this current government and the whole Brexit scenario so much they will never be able to do anything that would satisfy you.
The rest of us have moved on whilst you continue to sink in the mire of the past.
I think that yours is the tribal response here.
Showing your ignorance Mike. I am not a Boris fan, did not want him for PM (something I mentioned many times on here) and think he is a thoroughly reprehensible individual.
So claiming I am being tribal about him and his Government really is very dumb of you.
One of the few interesting things I've read on PB about Coronavirus was the account of the 25 year old sufferer who has since recovered. Assuming there is no vaccine on the near horizon, I am wondering what the most effective protocol to treat a case is. Given that difficulty breathing is one of the worst symptoms, do asthma inhalers have a beneficial effect?
It'd be helpful to know the answer to that - I have a friend with asthma.
One of the few interesting things I've read on PB about Coronavirus was the account of the 25 year old sufferer who has since recovered. Assuming there is no vaccine on the near horizon, I am wondering what the most effective protocol to treat a case is. Given that difficulty breathing is one of the worst symptoms, do asthma inhalers have a beneficial effect?
It'd be helpful to know the answer to that - I have a friend with asthma.
I have two different breathing inhallers and am fairly certain they would be of limited value and hospital treatment with oxygen is probably the best and only option
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
South Korea is a source of encouragement. They've done more reliable tests than anyone and their mortality rate is just 0.6%, six times nastier than flu but not Doomsday. Some experts are heartened
On the other hand there are dissenters who say this is because they are catching so many cases very early, and a lot of these cases will eventually succumb, raising the CFRatio.
Bear in mind that 0.6% is the absolute lower bound in SK. If not one more person had the disease, and everyone currently with it recovered then it would have a CFR of 0.6%. That is absolutely not realistic.
I am interested in the recollections from older posters about the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics. In each of those cases some 80,000 people died in Britain from the flu. Having been born in 1965 I am too young to remember either but looking at the history of the country I certainly don't remember it being portrayed as such a crisis as we are now seeing in the media.
This is not to play down the seriousness of the Covid-19 but I just wonder whether those who were adults at that time remember it being such a huge thing as this has turned into?
I doubt you'll find many commenters here other than OKC who were adults in 1957. I was at secondary school and I can assure you that "Asian flu" as it was known (or "Asiatic Influenza" as our headmaster insisted on calling it) was a big thing. It was the main topic of public discussion for several weeks.
NB “This is what the start of a recession after a long bull market feels like,” said John McClain, a portfolio manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management. “This is the first day of seeing some panic in the market.”
Yes I am superforecasting 20000 before 30000 on the Dow. And the money is where the mouth is now. I'm short. Nevertheless I've sold the Dow. Did it yesterday. Have not traded the financials for years but this has tempted me out of retirement. Ooo.
I am interested in the recollections from older posters about the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics. In each of those cases some 80,000 people died in Britain from the flu. Having been born in 1965 I am too young to remember either but looking at the history of the country I certainly don't remember it being portrayed as such a crisis as we are now seeing in the media.
This is not to play down the seriousness of the Covid-19 but I just wonder whether those who were adults at that time remember it being such a huge thing as this has turned into?
I doubt you'll find many commenters here other than OKC who were adults in 1957. I was at secondary school and I can assure you that "Asian flu" as it was known (or "Asiatic Influenza" as our headmaster insisted on calling it) was a big thing. It was the main topic of public discussion for several weeks.
My wife was 18 at the time and she had the Asian flu in 1957 and was very ill with it
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Are the Primary numbers comparable when the GOP primary isn't competitive this year? Perhaps there are some people voting in the Dem primary who would have voted in the GOP primary in 2016.
I am interested in the recollections from older posters about the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics. In each of those cases some 80,000 people died in Britain from the flu. Having been born in 1965 I am too young to remember either but looking at the history of the country I certainly don't remember it being portrayed as such a crisis as we are now seeing in the media.
This is not to play down the seriousness of the Covid-19 but I just wonder whether those who were adults at that time remember it being such a huge thing as this has turned into?
I could ask my father. He started college in London in 1957 at the age of 17.
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
I think it is. My only concern is if he really has lost it mentally. But I don't see sufficient evidence for that right now. If he can do the campaign I think he wins big.
I have a few days holiday coming up thanks to our event in Dublin being called off. There are some options, but I’m genuinely not sure what to do: 1. Use the tickets paid for and non-refundable to go to Dublin anyway and have a look around Ireland for a few days. 2. Write the tickets off and do a British trip instead 3. Stay at home because now is not the time to be travelling. I figure that hotels, restaurants and other places need people to still be out and about, but I worry that right now it’s not the right thing to do. Thoughts?
The chances of getting the bug in the UK at a restaurant or hotel at the moment are absolutely minuscule, and not necessarily any higher than staying at home and going out to do the shopping or meeting friends. A trip around Ireland would also be very safe.
And you don't want to go anywhere with a crap health system.
This is the key point in my view. Travelling doesn't look inherently more dangerous than staying in Britain in the medium term for picking up the infection. So the only question is whether you will get adequate healthcare if you catch it wherever you're going.
The only question...? A lot of people here are looking at things entirely from their own point of view, which is very self-centred..... What about the risk of taking the plague to somewhere which is hitherto uncontaminated?
A few threads ago, a well-known cosmopolitan London-based traveller was suggesting that the safest thing for him to do was to head for Cornwall, the West Country or the West of Ireland. I am sure he would be most welcome....
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
I think it is. My only concern is if he really has lost it mentally. But I don't see sufficient evidence for that right now. If he can do the campaign I think he wins big.
NB “This is what the start of a recession after a long bull market feels like,” said John McClain, a portfolio manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management. “This is the first day of seeing some panic in the market.”
One of the few interesting things I've read on PB about Coronavirus was the account of the 25 year old sufferer who has since recovered. Assuming there is no vaccine on the near horizon, I am wondering what the most effective protocol to treat a case is. Given that difficulty breathing is one of the worst symptoms, do asthma inhalers have a beneficial effect? Given that we don't want sufferers to bring the lurgy to their local GP surgery, should Corona packs that can be posted through letterboxes be a thing?
For most people with mild symptoms, just treat the symptoms with over the counter medications - ibuprofen, acetaminophen, NyQuil, sudafed, Afrin. Basically anti-inflammatories and decongestants.
For serious cases, it is still treat the symptoms, but then with things like ventilators and organ support.
I am interested in the recollections from older posters about the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics. In each of those cases some 80,000 people died in Britain from the flu. Having been born in 1965 I am too young to remember either but looking at the history of the country I certainly don't remember it being portrayed as such a crisis as we are now seeing in the media.
This is not to play down the seriousness of the Covid-19 but I just wonder whether those who were adults at that time remember it being such a huge thing as this has turned into?
Back then they had their daily newspaper and an evening news. They did not have to fill a need for a 24 hours cycle with "stuff".
The world should agree to put out one set of information each day at 6.00 am GMT. The "OMG! Another 289 in Italy" type statistic every couple of hours just fuels a sense of rolling doom.
I got the 1968 flu - as did my parents and my 3 siblings. It was awful. But, to my recollection, it was reported in a factual dispassionate way, rather than fear mongering headlines. But then we were living in Cyprus without TV, so this may be a biased sample (or biased memory, even).
I was the first to recover, and had to go to a friend's birthday party. My mum was too sick to drive me, so got a taxi for me (I was 10, those were the days, eh?). So I went on my own in the taxi, only to see doom and destruction on the way. And when I got there, the restaurant was gone and the party cancelled. 3 tornadoes had touched down - one in Limassol, one in Akrotiri, and another in Episkopi.
Nissan investing £400m in its Sunderland plant "despite the threat of tariffs after Brexit" (according the the BBC). They just don't get it. If there are tariffs the UK market becomes more attractive to Nissan who get an advantage in the UK over its German rivals. And if there is an FTA then it's status quo ante. Win-win for Nissan.
It's not much of a surprise — Barr's unsolicited memo about the Mueller investigation was a bloody big clue, and his actions since have merely confirmed his appointment is mainly to shield Trump — but it's nice to hear prominent people saying what many think.
I am interested in the recollections from older posters about the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics. In each of those cases some 80,000 people died in Britain from the flu. Having been born in 1965 I am too young to remember either but looking at the history of the country I certainly don't remember it being portrayed as such a crisis as we are now seeing in the media.
This is not to play down the seriousness of the Covid-19 but I just wonder whether those who were adults at that time remember it being such a huge thing as this has turned into?
I could ask my father. He started college in London in 1957 at the age of 17.
In those days you had few TV's and no other communication other than papers or radio. Everything was very local and people were not soft pampered snowflakes.
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Total dead is still only about 50% of a weeks carnage on the roads in China. Given the restrictions their death rate will be down on normal.
South Korea is a source of encouragement. They've done more reliable tests than anyone and their mortality rate is just 0.6%, six times nastier than flu but not Doomsday. Some experts are heartened
On the other hand there are dissenters who say this is because they are catching so many cases very early, and a lot of these cases will eventually succumb, raising the CFRatio.
Bear in mind that 0.6% is the absolute lower bound in SK. If not one more person had the disease, and everyone currently with it recovered then it would have a CFR of 0.6%. That is absolutely not realistic.
No, but it stops me posting relentlessly pessimistic comments!
It's the lower bound assuming perfect data. Big assumption.
I am interested in the recollections from older posters about the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics. In each of those cases some 80,000 people died in Britain from the flu. Having been born in 1965 I am too young to remember either but looking at the history of the country I certainly don't remember it being portrayed as such a crisis as we are now seeing in the media.
This is not to play down the seriousness of the Covid-19 but I just wonder whether those who were adults at that time remember it being such a huge thing as this has turned into?
I could ask my father. He started college in London in 1957 at the age of 17.
In those days you had few TV's and no other communication other than papers or radio. Everything was very local and people were not soft pampered snowflakes.
Actually it coincided with the early mass adoption of small screen bw TVs. But you're right, the news was not presented anywhere near as sensationally as nowadays. And indeed we were not pampered snowflakes. Soft toilet paper was a luxury.
It would seem more that they want to be in place to capitalise on the fall of Sturgeon. Vultures circling would seem a more apt metaphor.
Sadly, I expect it's this. There was a time when everything was "Good for the SNP," and I think (because of the men) it's now all Bad.
Also Swinson didn't do as badly as people think - over 50% more votes than 2017.
I don't see what's sad about it. Scotland is a wonderful country and deserves better than a bunch of loonies running its Government as a pro-indy pressure group.
I know I'm generally very sanguine and relaxed about Covid-19, and usually scoff at the doomsters, whiners and apocalypse-porno-merchants, but even I was a trifle disturbed by this:
That’s almost as good as your, er, SeanT’s ‘shall I compare thee to a Sony Walkman’ line.
One of the few interesting things I've read on PB about Coronavirus was the account of the 25 year old sufferer who has since recovered. Assuming there is no vaccine on the near horizon, I am wondering what the most effective protocol to treat a case is. Given that difficulty breathing is one of the worst symptoms, do asthma inhalers have a beneficial effect? Given that we don't want sufferers to bring the lurgy to their local GP surgery, should Corona packs that can be posted through letterboxes be a thing?
For most people with mild symptoms, just treat the symptoms with over the counter medications - ibuprofen, acetaminophen, NyQuil, sudafed, Afrin. Basically anti-inflammatories and decongestants.
For serious cases, it is still treat the symptoms, but then with things like ventilators and organ support.
I am interested in the recollections from older posters about the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics. In each of those cases some 80,000 people died in Britain from the flu. Having been born in 1965 I am too young to remember either but looking at the history of the country I certainly don't remember it being portrayed as such a crisis as we are now seeing in the media.
This is not to play down the seriousness of the Covid-19 but I just wonder whether those who were adults at that time remember it being such a huge thing as this has turned into?
Back then they had their daily newspaper and an evening news. They did not have to fill a need for a 24 hours cycle with "stuff".
The world should agree to put out one set of information each day at 6.00 am GMT. The "OMG! Another 289 in Italy" type statistic every couple of hours just fuels a sense of rolling doom.
I got the 1968 flu - as did my parents and my 3 siblings. It was awful. But, to my recollection, it was reported in a factual dispassionate way, rather than fear mongering headlines. But then we were living in Cyprus without TV, so this may be a biased sample (or biased memory, even).
I was the first to recover, and had to go to a friend's birthday party. My mum was too sick to drive me, so got a taxi for me (I was 10, those were the days, eh?). So I went on my own in the taxi, only to see doom and destruction on the way. And when I got there, the restaurant was gone and the party cancelled. 3 tornadoes had touched down - one in Limassol, one in Akrotiri, and another in Episkopi.
But one would think that a nebuliser to open the airways would be beneficial?
It would seem more that they want to be in place to capitalise on the fall of Sturgeon. Vultures circling would seem a more apt metaphor.
Sadly, I expect it's this. There was a time when everything was "Good for the SNP," and I think (because of the men) it's now all Bad.
Also Swinson didn't do as badly as people think - over 50% more votes than 2017.
I don't see what's sad about it. Scotland is a wonderful country and deserves better than a bunch of loonies running its Government as a pro-indy pressure group.
Yes sooner we are free of those Westminster numpties the better
The fact that Johnson is bone idle is a real plus currently. It means there is no-one seeking to second guess the experts. For that reason, I feel (and hope) that the UK response to COVID-19 is towards the positive end of best practice.
One of the few interesting things I've read on PB about Coronavirus was the account of the 25 year old sufferer who has since recovered. Assuming there is no vaccine on the near horizon, I am wondering what the most effective protocol to treat a case is. Given that difficulty breathing is one of the worst symptoms, do asthma inhalers have a beneficial effect? Given that we don't want sufferers to bring the lurgy to their local GP surgery, should Corona packs that can be posted through letterboxes be a thing?
For most people with mild symptoms, just treat the symptoms with over the counter medications - ibuprofen, acetaminophen, NyQuil, sudafed, Afrin. Basically anti-inflammatories and decongestants.
For serious cases, it is still treat the symptoms, but then with things like ventilators and organ support.
I am interested in the recollections from older posters about the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics. In each of those cases some 80,000 people died in Britain from the flu. Having been born in 1965 I am too young to remember either but looking at the history of the country I certainly don't remember it being portrayed as such a crisis as we are now seeing in the media.
This is not to play down the seriousness of the Covid-19 but I just wonder whether those who were adults at that time remember it being such a huge thing as this has turned into?
Back then they had their daily newspaper and an evening news. They did not have to fill a need for a 24 hours cycle with "stuff".
The world should agree to put out one set of information each day at 6.00 am GMT. The "OMG! Another 289 in Italy" type statistic every couple of hours just fuels a sense of rolling doom.
I got the 1968 flu - as did my parents and my 3 siblings. It was awful. But, to my recollection, it was reported in a factual dispassionate way, rather than fear mongering headlines. But then we were living in Cyprus without TV, so this may be a biased sample (or biased memory, even).
I was the first to recover, and had to go to a friend's birthday party. My mum was too sick to drive me, so got a taxi for me (I was 10, those were the days, eh?). So I went on my own in the taxi, only to see doom and destruction on the way. And when I got there, the restaurant was gone and the party cancelled. 3 tornadoes had touched down - one in Limassol, one in Akrotiri, and another in Episkopi.
But one would think that a nebuliser to open the airways would be beneficial?
I know I'm generally very sanguine and relaxed about Covid-19, and usually scoff at the doomsters, whiners and apocalypse-porno-merchants, but even I was a trifle disturbed by this:
Apart from the 1-4% fatality rate, of a disease which may infect 20-60% of all humanity, amongst the tens of millions who "recover" may be many millions who are permanently scarred, require lung transplants etc, have lifelong immunity problems.
Long term, the disease is described as being "like a combination of SARS and AIDS".
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
In general, as you are all aware, I do not share the PB view that sans-corona virus Trump was nailed on for re election. I think the @2.7 the Dems got too was totally ridiculous.
With Corona virus I think the @2.28 the Dems are currently at to win is good value.
The fact that Johnson is bone idle is a real plus currently. It means there is no-one seeking to second guess the experts. For that reason, I feel (and hope) that the UK response to COVID-19 is towards the positive end of best practice.
Great opportunity for Hancock this.
If it goes OK he'll win a place in people's hearts - something he does not have now and has never had.
The fact that Johnson is bone idle is a real plus currently. It means there is no-one seeking to second guess the experts. For that reason, I feel (and hope) that the UK response to COVID-19 is towards the positive end of best practice.
He is behaving markedly different from Trump who has repeatedly contradicted the medics and scientists.
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.
The fact that Johnson is bone idle is a real plus currently. It means there is no-one seeking to second guess the experts. For that reason, I feel (and hope) that the UK response to COVID-19 is towards the positive end of best practice.
He is behaving markedly different from Trump who has repeatedly contradicted the medics and scientists.
Politician playing at populism. Populist playing at politics.
There's an awful big difference, as this is showing.
The fact that Johnson is bone idle is a real plus currently. It means there is no-one seeking to second guess the experts. For that reason, I feel (and hope) that the UK response to COVID-19 is towards the positive end of best practice.
He is behaving markedly different from Trump who has repeatedly contradicted the medics and scientists.
Yep - he is clearly not involved in the detail and has no political investment beyond it being handled as well as possible. It's good.
The fact that Johnson is bone idle is a real plus currently. It means there is no-one seeking to second guess the experts. For that reason, I feel (and hope) that the UK response to COVID-19 is towards the positive end of best practice.
He is behaving markedly different from Trump who has repeatedly contradicted the medics and scientists.
Politician playing at populism. Populist playing at politics.
There's an awful big difference, as this is showing.
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.
For clarity, on my last comment, there are other doctors disputing the "like Aids" remark, saying it relies on a mistranslation.
But then there are other doctors saying this translation is justified.
DYOR, if you dare.
The evidence that Coronavirus causes long term damage in some recovered patients is undisputed.
I would be surprised if it didn't to be honest. For start the immune system gets a hell of whacking I would have thought (I am not medical).
Seriously starting to think about self isolation at home with my wife for next two months.
Me too. I'm basically going to start next weekend after this. I have one more trip to the Hebrides next week (fairly safe I hope) and then that's pretty much it.
I have supplies for a month or so.
I am already social distancing otherwise. Turning down parties now, and so on.
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.
I have a few days holiday coming up thanks to our event in Dublin being called off. There are some options, but I’m genuinely not sure what to do: 1. Use the tickets paid for and non-refundable to go to Dublin anyway and have a look around Ireland for a few days. 2. Write the tickets off and do a British trip instead 3. Stay at home because now is not the time to be travelling.
I figure that hotels, restaurants and other places need people to still be out and about, but I worry that right now it’s not the right thing to do.
Thoughts?
The chances of getting the bug in the UK at a restaurant or hotel at the moment are absolutely minuscule, and not necessarily any higher than staying at home and going out to do the shopping or meeting friends. A trip around Ireland would also be very safe.
And you don't want to go anywhere with a crap health system.
This is the key point in my view. Travelling doesn't look inherently more dangerous than staying in Britain in the medium term for picking up the infection. So the only question is whether you will get adequate healthcare if you catch it wherever you're going.
Travel insurance (or the lack of it at sensible prices) will be the problem with foreign travel.
South Korea is a source of encouragement. They've done more reliable tests than anyone and their mortality rate is just 0.6%, six times nastier than flu but not Doomsday. Some experts are heartened
On the other hand there are dissenters who say this is because they are catching so many cases very early, and a lot of these cases will eventually succumb, raising the CFRatio.
Bear in mind that 0.6% is the absolute lower bound in SK. If not one more person had the disease, and everyone currently with it recovered then it would have a CFR of 0.6%. That is absolutely not realistic.
That's not strictly true.
It's more accurate to say: imagine a steady state, where no more people get the disease. There will still be people who have it now, who will go on to die. Therefore for the cohort of people with the disease right now in SK, 0.6% is the low-bound of fatality.
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
Do it 21st Century style. Send a bottle of wine to every attendee and have them stay at home, all use videocameras on Google Meet and off you go. No risk of Beckwith-style problems, either.
Or, as it’s a English law firm and they will need to hit billing targets for end of year, do the same but from their desks and offer the choice of still or sparkling.
A lot of their NRW cases were from a festival with a very young demographic iirc. Same reason as why SK is having a relatively slow ramp up in deaths, and why Italy is suffering so badly.
Just back in Aberdeen after doing the full length of the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line. Went as far as Inverurie back in January due to time constraints.
Hopefully no one on board had Covid! But I just need two "proper" passenger trains left in Scotland: Inverness to Kyle, and Inverness to Thurso and Wick. May need to see how things pan out before trying those out....
For clarity, on my last comment, there are other doctors disputing the "like Aids" remark, saying it relies on a mistranslation.
But then there are other doctors saying this translation is justified.
DYOR, if you dare.
The evidence that Coronavirus causes long term damage in some recovered patients is undisputed.
I would be surprised if it didn't to be honest. For start the immune system gets a hell of whacking I would have thought (I am not medical).
Seriously starting to think about self isolation at home with my wife for next two months.
Me too. I'm basically going to start next weekend after this. I have one more trip to the Hebrides next week (fairly safe I hope) and then that's pretty much it.
I have supplies for a month or so.
I am already social distancing otherwise. Turning down parties now, and so on.
Sad, but necessary.
I cannot social distance at work, but I think that the Villa game on Monday will be my last for a while. Download festival off the agenda too.
NB “This is what the start of a recession after a long bull market feels like,” said John McClain, a portfolio manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management. “This is the first day of seeing some panic in the market.”
There were several days last week when no new corporate debt capital markets products went to market in the US. That’s partially changed this week but only for good credits. The junk/high yield (delete to taste) market remains in stasis.
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.
"At least six reports of coronavirus-related attacks have been received by Devon and Cornwall Police.
People from Chinese and Asian backgrounds in Exeter have been assaulted and verbally abused by groups of men.
Victims, three of them students, have been punched, kicked, spat on and told to "go back to your own country - you must have coronavirus"."
It turns out there are more efficient catalysts of racist thuggery than Brexit.
And I think we can gloomily look forward to a lot of fckwitted vigilantism, no longer directed only at minorities, as this progresses. So voluntary self isolation may have a pretty big involuntary component to it.
And 8 of the 53 took place in the past 24 odd hours. Your ridiculous belief that somehow western Europe will be mostly left alone is a bit silly.
He is right to point out Germany tho, it is an odd anomaly. 670 cases and still not a single death?
That's..... weird. I am sure it is explicable, or just coincidence. But it is striking, nonetheless.
Germany (and the UK) are testing lots and lots of people. We're therefore picking up lots of asymptomatic (or mild symptoms) people. In the US, probably none of these people would have been picked up.
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.
It could (and should) be far less than that.
But, the cost will be the economy and personal freedoms for 1-2 months.
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.
There is some evidence that the ACE2 receptor (the viral entry site) has significant genetic variation. If so, some people may well be substantially less at risk of infection.
Comments
My ambitions are limited to hoping I can still go to the Isle of Wight with my wife and daughter in two weeks time.
We love it and have been looking forward to it for ages!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Republican_National_Convention
"Santa Clara County health officials are encouraging people not to go to events and companies here to stop events. Facebook is now 100% WFH in the bay area. twitter/square are WW... it's a bit crazy."
We are now entering the full-scale US panic cycle. It's a country that only knows how to do extreme complacency or total hysteria.
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1235986781906092034
NB “This is what the start of a recession after a long bull market feels like,” said John McClain, a portfolio manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management. “This is the first day of seeing some panic in the market.”
https://twitter.com/neal_katyal/status/1235708039728173062
EXCLUSIVE: Jo Swinson ‘mulling over’ Holyrood run amid rumours Willie Rennie stepping down as Scottish Lib Dem leader
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2055536/exclusive-jo-swinson-mulling-over-holyrood-run-amid-rumours-willie-rennie-stepping-down-as-scottish-lib-dem-leader/?utm_source=twitter
Also Swinson didn't do as badly as people think - over 50% more votes than 2017.
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
So claiming I am being tribal about him and his Government really is very dumb of you.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
A few threads ago, a well-known cosmopolitan London-based traveller was suggesting that the safest thing for him to do was to head for Cornwall, the West Country or the West of Ireland. I am sure he would be most welcome....
But the same is of course true of Trump.
For serious cases, it is still treat the symptoms, but then with things like ventilators and organ support. I got the 1968 flu - as did my parents and my 3 siblings. It was awful. But, to my recollection, it was reported in a factual dispassionate way, rather than fear mongering headlines. But then we were living in Cyprus without TV, so this may be a biased sample (or biased memory, even).
I was the first to recover, and had to go to a friend's birthday party. My mum was too sick to drive me, so got a taxi for me (I was 10, those were the days, eh?). So I went on my own in the taxi, only to see doom and destruction on the way. And when I got there, the restaurant was gone and the party cancelled. 3 tornadoes had touched down - one in Limassol, one in Akrotiri, and another in Episkopi.
And 40% atleast will believe him.
You think you've heard of every sort of human evil and then something comes along to surprise you again.
Like that is going to help knock the "made in a lab" conspiracy theories on the head....
With Corona virus I think the @2.28 the Dems are currently at to win is good value.
If it goes OK he'll win a place in people's hearts - something he does not have now and has never had.
https://twitter.com/SolankeSanjay/status/1221807294926614528?s=19
Populist playing at politics.
There's an awful big difference, as this is showing.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Seriously starting to think about self isolation at home with my wife for next two months.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.
If a country is locked down for 2-3 weeks then surely the virus goes away?
If people can't move they can't spread it and the virus will peter out in the vast majority that do.
Buy an annual policy now, might I suggest?
It's more accurate to say: imagine a steady state, where no more people get the disease. There will still be people who have it now, who will go on to die. Therefore for the cohort of people with the disease right now in SK, 0.6% is the low-bound of fatality.
He’s just a run of the mill jerk
Or, as it’s a English law firm and they will need to hit billing targets for end of year, do the same but from their desks and offer the choice of still or sparkling.
A lot of their NRW cases were from a festival with a very young demographic iirc. Same reason as why SK is having a relatively slow ramp up in deaths, and why Italy is suffering so badly.
Hopefully no one on board had Covid! But I just need two "proper" passenger trains left in Scotland: Inverness to Kyle, and Inverness to Thurso and Wick. May need to see how things pan out before trying those out....
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.
"At least six reports of coronavirus-related attacks have been received by Devon and Cornwall Police.
People from Chinese and Asian backgrounds in Exeter have been assaulted and verbally abused by groups of men.
Victims, three of them students, have been punched, kicked, spat on and told to "go back to your own country - you must have coronavirus"."
It turns out there are more efficient catalysts of racist thuggery than Brexit.
And I think we can gloomily look forward to a lot of fckwitted vigilantism, no longer directed only at minorities, as this progresses. So voluntary self isolation may have a pretty big involuntary component to it.
But, the cost will be the economy and personal freedoms for 1-2 months.
Personally, I'd take that like a shot.
I don't want to get this.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0147-1