Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
"The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) advise against all travel to the cities of Daegu, Cheongdo and Gyeongsan due to the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, the increased incidence of community transmission and increasing pressure on medical services in these areas."
"At least six reports of coronavirus-related attacks have been received by Devon and Cornwall Police.
People from Chinese and Asian backgrounds in Exeter have been assaulted and verbally abused by groups of men.
Victims, three of them students, have been punched, kicked, spat on and told to "go back to your own country - you must have coronavirus"."
It turns out there are more efficient catalysts of racist thuggery than Brexit.
And I think we can gloomily look forward to a lot of fckwitted vigilantism, no longer directed only at minorities, as this progresses. So voluntary self isolation may have a pretty big involuntary component to it.
Covid has the potential to unleash medieval style behaviour from our cave dwellers.
The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.
Not if the US ends up suffering more deaths. China will then be seen as relatively competent.
America will not be able to control the movement of people like a police state can if it worsens over there.
In principle a democracy with an educated citizenship, good information and competent leadership, would be able to rely on its population following the recommendations of its government health experts without resorting to force.
I'm not looking forward to having this argument tested.
"At least six reports of coronavirus-related attacks have been received by Devon and Cornwall Police.
People from Chinese and Asian backgrounds in Exeter have been assaulted and verbally abused by groups of men.
Victims, three of them students, have been punched, kicked, spat on and told to "go back to your own country - you must have coronavirus"."
It turns out there are more efficient catalysts of racist thuggery than Brexit.
And I think we can gloomily look forward to a lot of fckwitted vigilantism, no longer directed only at minorities, as this progresses. So voluntary self isolation may have a pretty big involuntary component to it.
That's Exeter for you. A red blob of intolerance in a sea of chilled-out blue.....
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.
Do we have any numbers on re-infection rates? Percentage that get the virus, recover, then get it again?
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his way
"At least six reports of coronavirus-related attacks have been received by Devon and Cornwall Police.
People from Chinese and Asian backgrounds in Exeter have been assaulted and verbally abused by groups of men.
Victims, three of them students, have been punched, kicked, spat on and told to "go back to your own country - you must have coronavirus"."
It turns out there are more efficient catalysts of racist thuggery than Brexit.
And I think we can gloomily look forward to a lot of fckwitted vigilantism, no longer directed only at minorities, as this progresses. So voluntary self isolation may have a pretty big involuntary component to it.
It is (and it's a surprise it's amongst young students who I thought were supposed to be Uber woke and progressive) but these are still very isolated incidents.
That said, I walked faster up the escalator at Bank tube the other day when an Asian man in his 30s started walking closer behind me and coughing loudly near me.
Yes, yes.. I know, I know... Judge me. But it's a reflexive instinct.
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.
Do we have any numbers on re-infection rates? Percentage that get the virus, recover, then get it again?
I think the number will end up being close to zero.
"At least six reports of coronavirus-related attacks have been received by Devon and Cornwall Police.
People from Chinese and Asian backgrounds in Exeter have been assaulted and verbally abused by groups of men.
Victims, three of them students, have been punched, kicked, spat on and told to "go back to your own country - you must have coronavirus"."
It turns out there are more efficient catalysts of racist thuggery than Brexit.
And I think we can gloomily look forward to a lot of fckwitted vigilantism, no longer directed only at minorities, as this progresses. So voluntary self isolation may have a pretty big involuntary component to it.
It is (and it's a surprise it's amongst young students who I thought were supposed to be Uber woke and progressive) but these are still very isolated incidents.
That said, I walked faster up the escalator at Bank tube the other day when an Asian man in his 30s started walking closer behind me and coughing loudly near me.
Yes, yes.. I know, I know... Judge me. But it's a reflexive instinct.
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his way
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his way
Those figures show WI, MI and IA all flipping blue from last time. That makes it 270-268 to Trump. But if NE-02 flips then that’s a tie..
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.
Do we have any numbers on re-infection rates? Percentage that get the virus, recover, then get it again?
I think the number will end up being close to zero.
Yes, and as there will be partial immunity from first exposure, much milder disease.
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his way
Assuming the Dems hold all the states they won in 2016 (a good bet I think), then if Trump loses MI and WI, then the Dems just have to turn Florida or North Carolina or Pennsylvania. Personally I think the Dems will get back PA, and I think NC should be pretty easy for them - it's the new Virginia: a state that's turning blue due to an influx of lefter-leaning voters attracted by tech jobs.
It would seem more that they want to be in place to capitalise on the fall of Sturgeon. Vultures circling would seem a more apt metaphor.
Sadly, I expect it's this. There was a time when everything was "Good for the SNP," and I think (because of the men) it's now all Bad.
Also Swinson didn't do as badly as people think - over 50% more votes than 2017.
I don't see what's sad about it. Scotland is a wonderful country and deserves better than a bunch of loonies running its Government as a pro-indy pressure group.
Yes sooner we are free of those Westminster numpties the better
The situations aren't really comparable. We never had a Government whose sole purpose was Brexit - if you remember at the time of the referendum the Government was dead against it. So despite a lot of other issues, we never saw state institutions geared away from their assigned tasks and toward some sort of pro-Brexit propaganda campaign for years. If we had, it would have been equally reprehensible.
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his way
Assuming the Dems hold all the states they won in 2016 (a good bet I think), then if Trump loses MI and WI, then the Dems just have to turn Florida or North Carolina or Pennsylvania. Personally I think the Dems will get back PA, and I think NC should be pretty easy for them - it's the new Virginia: a state that's turning blue due to an influx of lefter-leaning voters attracted by tech jobs.
They also have a good shot at flipping AZ which is tuning increasing blue. Plus an outside chance in GA.
Without looking at the details, I am not surprised. What's the government done?
Well, oven-ready Brexit but that's not improved anyone's life and if it turns out a lot of Brexit voters were not really voting on Brexit but against decline in general -- and Arron Banks and Dominic Cummings would agree with that -- then where are we? Any genuinely hardcore Brexiteers might see that we are still in a transition period so they won't be happy either. And that is betting without the natural Labour voters in the red wall seats.
So what has the government done? It's got Carrie pregnant and exiled Harry and Meghan but what else?
Your last sentence is just nasty.
Carrie being pregnant and Harry and Megan have nothing to do with HMG
Some people need to grow up
I think it was meant to satirical, so I think you may need to do the growing up.
The achievements of this government are pretty difficult to identify. We have a blustering PM who is in thrall to a very unsavoury "advisor" and a Home Sec who is likely to find herself in an employment tribunal for bullying. This is a government that already stinks of incompetence, which for a supposed Tory government is not a good look.
It's very early days in this government but so far it has been 10/10 great.
A renegotiated deal that was supposed to be impossible has been negotiated and implemented. The threat of Corbyn has been dealt with. HS2 decision made. The coronavirus outbreak has been dealt with well so far.
Early days still but nothing to criticise so far.
A Home Sec in an employment tribunal for bullying? Your tribal loyalty is as quaint as your belief in the fairytale of Brexit.
I am afraid that it is you who continues to display your normal tribal bias. You hate this current government and the whole Brexit scenario so much they will never be able to do anything that would satisfy you.
The rest of us have moved on whilst you continue to sink in the mire of the past.
I think that yours is the tribal response here.
Showing your ignorance Mike. I am not a Boris fan, did not want him for PM (something I mentioned many times on here) and think he is a thoroughly reprehensible individual.
So claiming I am being tribal about him and his Government really is very dumb of you.
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.
Do we have any numbers on re-infection rates? Percentage that get the virus, recover, then get it again?
I think the number will end up being close to zero.
Yes, and as there will be partial immunity from first exposure, much milder disease.
There's been a bit of speculation that recovering from one strain of the virus doesn't give you immunity from the other - hence why there's a couple of re-infections going on. Could have been because of dodgy tests results before discharge though.
"At least six reports of coronavirus-related attacks have been received by Devon and Cornwall Police.
People from Chinese and Asian backgrounds in Exeter have been assaulted and verbally abused by groups of men.
Victims, three of them students, have been punched, kicked, spat on and told to "go back to your own country - you must have coronavirus"."
It turns out there are more efficient catalysts of racist thuggery than Brexit.
And I think we can gloomily look forward to a lot of fckwitted vigilantism, no longer directed only at minorities, as this progresses. So voluntary self isolation may have a pretty big involuntary component to it.
It is (and it's a surprise it's amongst young students who I thought were supposed to be Uber woke and progressive) but these are still very isolated incidents.
That said, I walked faster up the escalator at Bank tube the other day when an Asian man in his 30s started walking closer behind me and coughing loudly near me.
Yes, yes.. I know, I know... Judge me. But it's a reflexive instinct.
I see no suggestion the perps are students.
They were 15 and 16 year olds in Oxford Street the other day.
The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.
Do you think? I don't think they have a brand really. Chinese products are cheaper, or better value let's say. That's it. That's no offence to China - I fully admire them for their achievement of economic dominance, but I don't see their prospect of future business being damaged providing their products remain cheaper than the competition.
I have a few days holiday coming up thanks to our event in Dublin being called off. There are some options, but I’m genuinely not sure what to do: 1. Use the tickets paid for and non-refundable to go to Dublin anyway and have a look around Ireland for a few days. 2. Write the tickets off and do a British trip instead 3. Stay at home because now is not the time to be travelling.
I figure that hotels, restaurants and other places need people to still be out and about, but I worry that right now it’s not the right thing to do.
Thoughts?
The chances of getting the bug in the UK at a restaurant or hotel at the moment are absolutely minuscule, and not necessarily any higher than staying at home and going out to do the shopping or meeting friends. A trip around Ireland would also be very safe.
This is pretty sensible advice. Yes you can still go somewhere in the UK or Ireland. (The UK if you want to help the British tourist economy)
The further abroad you go the greater the chance of being marooned there, or excluded from home, if there is a sudden change in quarantine/lockdown wherever you are, or wherever your home is.
And you don't want to go anywhere with a crap health system.
I'd do Cornwall, the West Country, or the Irish West Coast, Connemara maybe.....
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his way
Assuming the Dems hold all the states they won in 2016 (a good bet I think), then if Trump loses MI and WI, then the Dems just have to turn Florida or North Carolina or Pennsylvania. Personally I think the Dems will get back PA, and I think NC should be pretty easy for them - it's the new Virginia: a state that's turning blue due to an influx of lefter-leaning voters attracted by tech jobs.
It’s odd really. The tech industry is a master of tax arbitrage yet it attracts people who think it’s a moral choice. Their salaries are paid for by agressive intragroup licensing arrangements.
Genuine question: is 60% infection really realistic?
Hubei province (ground zero) has almost 60 million people and new cases are on the decline. And, yet, global cases have only just topped 100k.
That suggests a plateau of less than 1% infection. *If* extreme containment (aka China) measures are taken.
Nothing about this is inevitable.
It's controllable if the correct measures are put in place. But we cant weld people into apartments so we are relying on people behaving in optimal ways voluntarily. I have my doubts that is going to happen.
Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Which is your favourite model of the moment?
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.
Do we have any numbers on re-infection rates? Percentage that get the virus, recover, then get it again?
I think the number will end up being close to zero.
Yes, and as there will be partial immunity from first exposure, much milder disease.
There's been a bit of speculation that recovering from one strain of the virus doesn't give you immunity from the other - hence why there's a couple of re-infections going on. Could have been because of dodgy tests results before discharge though.
It may not give complete immunity, but it will be likely to be a degree of stamina.
Without looking at the details, I am not surprised. What's the government done?
Well, oven-ready Brexit but that's not improved anyone's life and if it turns out a lot of Brexit voters were not really voting on Brexit but against decline in general -- and Arron Banks and Dominic Cummings would agree with that -- then where are we? Any genuinely hardcore Brexiteers might see that we are still in a transition period so they won't be happy either. And that is betting without the natural Labour voters in the red wall seats.
So what has the government done? It's got Carrie pregnant and exiled Harry and Meghan but what else?
Your last sentence is just nasty.
Carrie being pregnant and Harry and Megan have nothing to do with HMG
Some people need to grow up
I think it was meant to satirical, so I think you may need to do the growing up.
The achievements of this government are pretty difficult to identify. We have a blustering PM who is in thrall to a very unsavoury "advisor" and a Home Sec who is likely to find herself in an employment tribunal for bullying. This is a government that already stinks of incompetence, which for a supposed Tory government is not a good look.
It's very early days in this government but so far it has been 10/10 great.
A renegotiated deal that was supposed to be impossible has been negotiated and implemented. The threat of Corbyn has been dealt with. HS2 decision made. The coronavirus outbreak has been dealt with well so far.
Early days still but nothing to criticise so far.
A Home Sec in an employment tribunal for bullying? Your tribal loyalty is as quaint as your belief in the fairytale of Brexit.
I am afraid that it is you who continues to display your normal tribal bias. You hate this current government and the whole Brexit scenario so much they will never be able to do anything that would satisfy you.
The rest of us have moved on whilst you continue to sink in the mire of the past.
I think that yours is the tribal response here.
Showing your ignorance Mike. I am not a Boris fan, did not want him for PM (something I mentioned many times on here) and think he is a thoroughly reprehensible individual.
So claiming I am being tribal about him and his Government really is very dumb of you.
I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
Postpone. People will understand.
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.
Just back in Aberdeen after doing the full length of the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line. Went as far as Inverurie back in January due to time constraints.
Hopefully no one on board had Covid! But I just need two "proper" passenger trains left in Scotland: Inverness to Kyle, and Inverness to Thurso and Wick. May need to see how things pan out before trying those out....
I did the Inverness to Kyle line back in 1991. Back then you had to get the ferry if you wanted to go to Skye.
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ? Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him. The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his way
Assuming the Dems hold all the states they won in 2016 (a good bet I think), then if Trump loses MI and WI, then the Dems just have to turn Florida or North Carolina or Pennsylvania. Personally I think the Dems will get back PA, and I think NC should be pretty easy for them - it's the new Virginia: a state that's turning blue due to an influx of lefter-leaning voters attracted by tech jobs.
Without looking at the details, I am not surprised. What's the government done?
Well, oven-ready Brexit but that's not improved anyone's life and if it turns out a lot of Brexit voters were not really voting on Brexit but against decline in general -- and Arron Banks and Dominic Cummings would agree with that -- then where are we? Any genuinely hardcore Brexiteers might see that we are still in a transition period so they won't be happy either. And that is betting without the natural Labour voters in the red wall seats.
So what has the government done? It's got Carrie pregnant and exiled Harry and Meghan but what else?
Your last sentence is just nasty.
Carrie being pregnant and Harry and Megan have nothing to do with HMG
Some people need to grow up
I think it was meant to satirical, so I think you may need to do the growing up.
The achievements of this government are pretty difficult to identify. We have a blustering PM who is in thrall to a very unsavoury "advisor" and a Home Sec who is likely to find herself in an employment tribunal for bullying. This is a government that already stinks of incompetence, which for a supposed Tory government is not a good look.
It's very early days in this government but so far it has been 10/10 great.
A renegotiated deal that was supposed to be impossible has been negotiated and implemented. The threat of Corbyn has been dealt with. HS2 decision made. The coronavirus outbreak has been dealt with well so far.
Early days still but nothing to criticise so far.
A Home Sec in an employment tribunal for bullying? Your tribal loyalty is as quaint as your belief in the fairytale of Brexit.
I am afraid that it is you who continues to display your normal tribal bias. You hate this current government and the whole Brexit scenario so much they will never be able to do anything that would satisfy you.
The rest of us have moved on whilst you continue to sink in the mire of the past.
I think that yours is the tribal response here.
Showing your ignorance Mike. I am not a Boris fan, did not want him for PM (something I mentioned many times on here) and think he is a thoroughly reprehensible individual.
So claiming I am being tribal about him and his Government really is very dumb of you.
I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
Postpone. People will understand.
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.
The waters close quickly. Hopefully, you’ve left a material legacy, be it pushing forward good people or making a difference. Most Partners don’t.
The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.
Do you think? I don't think they have a brand really. Chinese products are cheaper, or better value let's say. That's it. That's no offence to China - I fully admire them for their achievement of economic dominance, but I don't see their prospect of future business being damaged providing their products remain cheaper than the competition.
On the contrary.
In my industry (clothing) China has an extraordinarily strong brand - among professional clothing buyers. A country of limited creative or stylistic skills (which don't matter, since most designing's done in the West), but a formidably reliable network of businesses supplying raw materials, key components (like buttons and zips) and on-time, high-quality, garment assembly.
If anything, I'd say that brand has been strengthened by the country's robust response to the crisis. Everyone knows the place is run by unaccountable and out of touch politicians, so no-one's surprised the issue was badly fudged in the early days.
But the contrast between the ruthlessness of China's containment programme since late Jan and the self-deceiving, lackadaisical, behaviour of the White House and the cockups in Italy, Japan and Korea, is stark.
In Jan, I'd say there was a case for repatriating production (though it's currently impossible). With the haplessness four Western countries are showing (and that Johnson is still showing on most other issues), China's reputation for Teutonic reliability once it knows what the problem is has probably improved over the past month.
Genuine question: is 60% infection really realistic?
Hubei province (ground zero) has almost 60 million people and new cases are on the decline. And, yet, global cases have only just topped 100k.
That suggests a plateau of less than 1% infection. *If* extreme containment (aka China) measures are taken.
Nothing about this is inevitable.
It's controllable if the correct measures are put in place. But we cant weld people into apartments so we are relying on people behaving in optimal ways voluntarily. I have my doubts that is going to happen.
Genuine question: is 60% infection really realistic?
Hubei province (ground zero) has almost 60 million people and new cases are on the decline. And, yet, global cases have only just topped 100k.
That suggests a plateau of less than 1% infection. *If* extreme containment (aka China) measures are taken.
Nothing about this is inevitable.
It's controllable if the correct measures are put in place. But we cant weld people into apartments so we are relying on people behaving in optimal ways voluntarily. I have my doubts that is going to happen.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
Postpone. People will understand.
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.
That sucks.
No doubt you won’t be the only one whose plans are sabotaged this year... or worse. But it still sucks.
I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
Postpone. People will understand.
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.
We could always take you on a massive piss-up later in the year, Alastair?
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
I'd be shocked if it wasn't being discussed. Bit tricky for the continent though.
I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
Postpone. People will understand.
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.
We could always take you on a massive piss-up later in the year, Alastair?
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
I predicted this some weeks ago, and I remember being roundly ridiculed by basically everyone on PB! (including possibly you)
I am prophet without honour etc etc
Your attempts at mathematics are still risible though
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
Not great for Andorra, San Marino or Liechtenstein then.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
Postpone. People will understand.
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.
We could always take you on a massive piss-up later in the year, Alastair?
Pb looks out for its own.
Count me in.
If there is a post viral PB meet-up, I’d make the effort too.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
Not great for Andorra, San Marino or Liechtenstein then.
I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
Postpone. People will understand.
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.
We could always take you on a massive piss-up later in the year, Alastair?
Pb looks out for its own.
Count me in.
If there is a post viral PB meet-up, I’d make the effort too.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
I think in our case, country level is the only viable approach to this method.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
Not great for Andorra, San Marino or Liechtenstein then.
Let them eat tax avoiders.
San Marino's per capita infection rate is astronomical: 23 out of 33,000. Italy would be well advised to close the border.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
I think in our case, country level is the only viable approach to this method.
I wouldnt be surprised if some countries, including the UK, decide closing their own borders is best for them, it may or may not be. I think it is impossible it is right for all countries, or even the worldwide population to close all borders.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
Because irrespective of the size of your rooms, the only lockable things are the doors between them.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?
Dont do it?
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?
Seeing as I dont have more resources or more data than the UK government or WHO I will go along with whatever they decide. Which will be slowing down the virus until the late Spring/Summer rather than trying to stop it and ending up with a second peak next winter when our hospitals really couldnt cope.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?
Dont do it?
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.
Just let it take its course with some sensible not over the top sanctions.Otherwise society will break down and we will still be fafhing around trying to stop it when its not that much dangerous than normal flu
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?
Dont do it?
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.
Just let it take its course with some sensible not over the top sanctions.Otherwise society will break down and we will still be fafhing around trying to stop it when its not that much dangerous than normal flu
Very sorry but your last statement is absolute nonsense which negates the rest of your post.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?
Dont do it?
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.
Just let it take its course with some sensible not over the top sanctions.Otherwise society will break down and we will still be fafhing around trying to stop it when its not that much dangerous than normal flu
Very sorry but your last statement is absolute nonsense which negates the rest of your post.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?
Dont do it?
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.
Just let it take its course with some sensible not over the top sanctions.Otherwise society will break down and we will still be fafhing around trying to stop it when its not that much dangerous than normal flu
Letting the old and sick do their duty does have advantages on many fronts, doesn't it?
Saw a couple wearing facemasks in Waitrose this afternoon. Could have been Chinese, oriental anyway. No one paid them any attention - this is Edinburgh, Morningside. Then on my way home saw another, jogging. I hope it doesn't become the new normal. My normalcy bias showing there.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?
Dont do it?
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.
There was quite a lot of movement over borders in 1918. Not quite as quickly but equally information didn’t flow in the same way.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?
Seeing as I dont have more resources or more data than the UK government or WHO I will go along with whatever they decide. Which will be slowing down the virus until the late Spring/Summer rather than trying to stop it and ending up with a second peak next winter when our hospitals really couldnt cope.
Just commenting on the snippet from Charles. In my view it has a lot of merit. We can't do what China has done but we can close borders between a number of countries.
Thinking about it, this was hinted at by the Chief Scientific Officer when he said a select few countries might move together. I didn't know what he meant but perhaps its this.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
I predicted this some weeks ago, and I remember being roundly ridiculed by basically everyone on PB! (including possibly you)
I am prophet without honour etc etc
Your attempts at mathematics are still risible though
Meh. I am a genius superforecaster with near-clairvoyant gifts. But I am crap at working out how to invest in bonds so as to avoid inflation. That I admit.
Will anyone survive covid 19 ..why should you give a fuck about bond rates?
Saw a couple wearing facemasks in Waitrose this afternoon. Could have been Chinese, oriental anyway. No one paid them any attention - this is Edinburgh, Morningside. Then on my way home saw another, jogging. I hope it doesn't become the new normal. My normalcy bias showing there.
Do they have to take them off when they go into a bank? Just askin'
The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.
Do you think? I don't think they have a brand really. Chinese products are cheaper, or better value let's say. That's it. That's no offence to China - I fully admire them for their achievement of economic dominance, but I don't see their prospect of future business being damaged providing their products remain cheaper than the competition.
On the contrary.
In my industry (clothing) China has an extraordinarily strong brand - among professional clothing buyers. A country of limited creative or stylistic skills (which don't matter, since most designing's done in the West), but a formidably reliable network of businesses supplying raw materials, key components (like buttons and zips) and on-time, high-quality, garment assembly.
If anything, I'd say that brand has been strengthened by the country's robust response to the crisis. Everyone knows the place is run by unaccountable and out of touch politicians, so no-one's surprised the issue was badly fudged in the early days.
But the contrast between the ruthlessness of China's containment programme since late Jan and the self-deceiving, lackadaisical, behaviour of the White House and the cockups in Italy, Japan and Korea, is stark.
In Jan, I'd say there was a case for repatriating production (though it's currently impossible). With the haplessness four Western countries are showing (and that Johnson is still showing on most other issues), China's reputation for Teutonic reliability once it knows what the problem is has probably improved over the past month.
I don't think Korea is doing badly. These are their infection and mortality figures btw.
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
I think in our case, country level is the only viable approach to this method.
We are an island nation. Sometimes this works against us (we become literally insular and backward) sometimes it works in our favour. We are able to control our borders in a way few nations can.
Note that some of the countries doing better, already, at containing Coronavirus. are also islands: Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore (sort of an island).
Closing our island frontier will be economically grim. 1m dead and 3m in "hospital" will be far, far grimmer.
This plague is about as bad as it gets, potentially. Wartime measures are required.
People do actually die anyway in Britain - Quite a lot actually probably not far off that 1M a year so it not exactly zombie takeover - Its funny this hyberbole in a way but you seem to be getting sincere supporters
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?
Dont do it?
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.
We did, though. A widely held theory is that Spanish flu emerged in the USA which then knowingly exported shiploads of infectious soldiers to Europe to win the war. Not that that negates your point.
Saw a couple wearing facemasks in Waitrose this afternoon. Could have been Chinese, oriental anyway. No one paid them any attention - this is Edinburgh, Morningside. Then on my way home saw another, jogging. I hope it doesn't become the new normal. My normalcy bias showing there.
Do they have to take them off when they go into a bank? Just askin'
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
The stable door manoeuvre.
And how would Britain import the food it needs if that happened?
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
The stable door manoeuvre.
ONE horse has bolted. That's not good. But at least half a dozen remain in their stables, eyeing the open door.
So lock the door.
This is the saying I always get wrong:
"Bolting the stable door after the horse has, er... bolted?"
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Less than that
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental level
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?
Seeing as I dont have more resources or more data than the UK government or WHO I will go along with whatever they decide. Which will be slowing down the virus until the late Spring/Summer rather than trying to stop it and ending up with a second peak next winter when our hospitals really couldnt cope.
Just commenting on the snippet from Charles. In my view it has a lot of merit. We can't do what China has done but we can close borders between a number of countries.
Thinking about it, this was hinted at by the Chief Scientific Officer when he said a select few countries might move together. I didn't know what he meant but perhaps its this.
Quite possible that the Northern Hemisphere well off countries move together by trying to time the peak of the virus to our summer by co-ordinating their actions. Doubt closing a significant number of borders is part of it, let alone all borders.
How come we've not heard anything about anti-virals so far? During the Swine Flu pandemic the whole world knew about "Tamiflu" but this time, so far, we've heard nothing about trials etc?
Comments
They are the UK c.1920s.
Maybe he's going to do a Clinton and end up with an inefficient vote share this time around.
Is that mean?
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/south-korea
Public order is a big worry for me.
I'm not looking forward to having this argument tested.
OTOH, he’s not taking his bat home, and is carrying on (funding) the fight against Trump, so a degree of respect is due.
That said, I walked faster up the escalator at Bank tube the other day when an Asian man in his 30s started walking closer behind me and coughing loudly near me.
Yes, yes.. I know, I know... Judge me. But it's a reflexive instinct.
Slightly fatalistic going ahead with it IMO.
Hubei province (ground zero) has almost 60 million people and new cases are on the decline. And, yet, global cases have only just topped 100k.
That suggests a plateau of less than 1% infection. *If* extreme containment (aka China) measures are taken.
Nothing about this is inevitable.
But, the civil contingency act is a powerful thing.
In my industry (clothing) China has an extraordinarily strong brand - among professional clothing buyers. A country of limited creative or stylistic skills (which don't matter, since most designing's done in the West), but a formidably reliable network of businesses supplying raw materials, key components (like buttons and zips) and on-time, high-quality, garment assembly.
If anything, I'd say that brand has been strengthened by the country's robust response to the crisis. Everyone knows the place is run by unaccountable and out of touch politicians, so no-one's surprised the issue was badly fudged in the early days.
But the contrast between the ruthlessness of China's containment programme since late Jan and the self-deceiving, lackadaisical, behaviour of the White House and the cockups in Italy, Japan and Korea, is stark.
In Jan, I'd say there was a case for repatriating production (though it's currently impossible). With the haplessness four Western countries are showing (and that Johnson is still showing on most other issues), China's reputation for Teutonic reliability once it knows what the problem is has probably improved over the past month.
I'm up for it for 2-3 months.
No doubt you won’t be the only one whose plans are sabotaged this year... or worse.
But it still sucks.
Pb looks out for its own.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1186956577699446784?lang=en
Are there any in Scotland, I wonder? Do they still have a vote?
Recycling is green. Green is good.
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.
Quite a lot of borders moving as well.
Thinking about it, this was hinted at by the Chief Scientific Officer when he said a select few countries might move together. I didn't know what he meant but perhaps its this.
https://twitter.com/YangeHan/status/1235866453028438019?s=09
"Bolting the stable door after the horse has, er... bolted?"