politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s quitting but not quite yet as Blair’s old seat goes t
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Look forward to Dr Moderate’s next polling conspiracy in 2024KentRising said:
We were also informed by certain Labourites on here that Corbyn had some mystyical oracle MRP up his sleeve that was guiding him efficiently to the seats he needed to be in.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Anecdotes on Twitter from 'sources' suggest they thought they'd done enough for a hung parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:Given Jezza's campaign trail, do we think Labour knew they were in for a shell-laking or they had no clue about anything?
I think they were making it up as they were going along.0 -
Moran did well here on OxWAb. Undeserved. But she got the votes0
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Good job there is a spreadsheet with them....MikeL said:I can't get BBC website to load any individual seat results.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA1 -
Labour deserves to lose this badly. The country did not deserve to have these conscienceless spivs inflicted on them for the foreseeable future. One more ratchet down in the spiral of decline.0
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Her and Davey both relatively safe after tonight.oxfordsimon said:Moran did well here on OxWAb. Undeserved. But she got the votes
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Their antics did enough to scare the excrement out of us PB Tories, but little more...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Anecdotes on Twitter from 'sources' suggest they thought they'd done enough for a hung parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:Given Jezza's campaign trail, do we think Labour knew they were in for a shell-laking or they had no clue about anything?
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What happened to that guy who who used to post on here during the EdM years who claimed to be involved with Labour HQ and banged on all the time about "algorithms"? Was sure that 2015 was going to go Lab's way.KentRising said:
We were also informed by certain Labourites on here that Corbyn had some magical, super secret oracle MRP up his sleeve that was guiding him efficiently to the seats he needed to be in.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Anecdotes on Twitter from 'sources' suggest they thought they'd done enough for a hung parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:Given Jezza's campaign trail, do we think Labour knew they were in for a shell-laking or they had no clue about anything?
I think they were making it up as they were going along.0 -
Well a random number generator is an algorithm....MyBurningEars said:
What happened to that guy who who used to post on here during the EdM years who claimed to be involved with Labour HQ and banged on all the time about "algorithms"? Was sure that 2015 was going to go Lab's way.KentRising said:
We were also informed by certain Labourites on here that Corbyn had some magical, super secret oracle MRP up his sleeve that was guiding him efficiently to the seats he needed to be in.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Anecdotes on Twitter from 'sources' suggest they thought they'd done enough for a hung parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:Given Jezza's campaign trail, do we think Labour knew they were in for a shell-laking or they had no clue about anything?
I think they were making it up as they were going along.0 -
On a last note, Labour can't do the trick of simply uniting the left at least not outside of Scotland, they need Conservative votes.
But which type of Conservative votes?
The ones of Dominic Grieve or the ones like in Sunderland ?0 -
Do we know what the Sinn Fein total is going to be? I think's it's 7, but can't find the hard number.0
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She should never have been allowed to stand again. The issue of domestic violence should have ended her career. I am ashamed to be represented by hertlg86 said:
Her and Davey both relatively safe after tonight.oxfordsimon said:Moran did well here on OxWAb. Undeserved. But she got the votes
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a very golf club postAlastairMeeks said:Labour deserves to lose this badly. The country did not deserve to have these conscienceless spivs inflicted on them for the foreseeable future. One more ratchet down in the spiral of decline.
Essex is getting in to your soul1 -
The union has been finished since the Brexit vote. It’s an English nationalist project.Black_Rook said:
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.1 -
Osborne has made a good point...basically saying the country has found a way forward that MPs couldn't.0
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Curtice is still awake.
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By finding new MPs, lol.FrancisUrquhart said:Osborne has made a good point...basically saying the country has found a way forward that MPs couldn't.
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Thanks!FrancisUrquhart said:
Good job there is a spreadsheet with them....MikeL said:I can't get BBC website to load any individual seat results.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA
BBC works through search, just not through map.0 -
Not many interesting seats left. Cheltenham, St Ives, Colne Valley..0
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That must be a mark of extreme (electoral) political inexperience if so, given that they were said to have no shortage of people on the ground.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Anecdotes on Twitter from 'sources' suggest they thought they'd done enough for a hung parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:Given Jezza's campaign trail, do we think Labour knew they were in for a shell-laking or they had no clue about anything?
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If Labour had voted for May's deal then the Conservatives would have ripped themselves apart and Corbyn would now be PM.
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Still, things looking up for those taking foreign holidays.AlastairMeeks said:Labour deserves to lose this badly. The country did not deserve to have these conscienceless spivs inflicted on them for the foreseeable future. One more ratchet down in the spiral of decline.
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Blackford holds. Bugger. The mute button on my remote is nearly completely warn out. The bloody windbag.1
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Would I be right in thinking that the net change in London has been precisely zero? I'm sure I saw that both Villiers and IDS survived. That being the case, presumably the net result is a swap of Putney for Kensington, and Richmond Park for Carshalton? It's the most spectacular anti-climax on the part of the left parties.
Elsewhere, God-like Curtice vindicated again.3 -
They replaced the MP's, simple.FrancisUrquhart said:Osborne has made a good point...basically saying the country has found a way forward that MPs couldn't.
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pbuh0
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Or even abstained on it, which I thought would be the smart thing to do.another_richard said:If Labour had voted for May's deal then the Conservatives would have ripped themselves apart and Corbyn would now be PM.
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The new Speaker will not indulge him do readilyKentRising said:Blackford holds. Bugger. The mute button on my remote is nearly completely warn out. The bloody windbag.
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Indeed... so he should end it on English termsBlack_Rook said:
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.0 -
Tory / Lab - 44%/32%
Old adage, take the best Tory, worst Labour in the polls.0 -
2014 YES 45%AlastairMeeks said:
The union has been finished since the Brexit vote. It’s an English nationalist project.Black_Rook said:
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.
2019 SNP 45%
No movement in 5 years.0 -
A decent new speaker to look forward to as well.oxfordsimon said:
The new Speaker will not indulge him do readilyKentRising said:Blackford holds. Bugger. The mute button on my remote is nearly completely warn out. The bloody windbag.
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Hm, looks like a hung parliament to me.FrancisUrquhart said:Tory / Lab - 44%/32%
Old adage, take the best Tory, worst Labour in the polls.0 -
Chipping Barnet:
Con 25,745
Lab 24,533
LD 5,932
Grn 1,288
AT 71
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000636
Hastings & Rye:
Con 26,896
Lab 22,853
LD 3,960
Ind 565
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140007351 -
Good. Now they can stop playing games.CarlottaVance said:1 -
Famously Quebec separated from Canada after the 5th referendum.Black_Rook said:
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.0 -
Will be interesting to find out what the Tories thought the lead was yesterday. I wouldn't be surprised if there was on the day "swing-back", making it 12% rather than 10% and that pushes lots of seats the Tories way in a domino effect.RobD said:
Hm, looks like a hung parliament to me.FrancisUrquhart said:Tory / Lab - 44%/32%
Old adage, take the best Tory, worst Labour in the polls.0 -
Exit poll off by four seats. Not too shabby.0
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Great night.FrancisUrquhart said:
A decent new speaker to look forward to as well.oxfordsimon said:
The new Speaker will not indulge him do readilyKentRising said:Blackford holds. Bugger. The mute button on my remote is nearly completely warn out. The bloody windbag.
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Peston losing it.1
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And settle down to enjoy the entirely unnecessary economic damage and isolation Britain is volunteering for with no compensating benefits.RobD said:
Good. Now they can stop playing games.CarlottaVance said:0 -
In other news anyone remember this story from six weeks back ?
Pigs in blankets and other festive meal treats might be in short supply this Christmas, the British Meat Processors Association has warned.
It says 60% of the labour force in UK meat plants comes from other countries and the industry is not attracting enough seasonal EU workers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50205951
I ask because Morissons are now offering the new culinary delight of 'Pigs in Blankets Butty' in their Barista Bars.0 -
Wales voted to Leave.AlastairMeeks said:
The union has been finished since the Brexit vote. It’s an English nationalist project.Black_Rook said:
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.
But this is a sterile argument that's been had a million times. We are where we are.
My real concern regarding the Union with Scotland is what happens if we do have one - or more - repetitions of the failed first referendum, and it becomes obvious that the independence movement is simultaneously too strong to be denied power in Edinburgh and too weak to get what it wants. We could be going round in circles on this matter indefinitely.
That's no good for Scotland - but it's no good for the rest of us, either.0 -
What evidence is their that Labour had any serious knowledge at the centre of how to fight a national campaign. Milne is hardly going to have learnt much from his studies of North Korea?Chris said:
That must be a mark of extreme (electoral) political inexperience if so, given that they were said to have no shortage of people on the ground.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Anecdotes on Twitter from 'sources' suggest they thought they'd done enough for a hung parliament.FrancisUrquhart said:Given Jezza's campaign trail, do we think Labour knew they were in for a shell-laking or they had no clue about anything?
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One of the best results thinking about it is Burnley going Tory, on the same night the remain dream died. I’d love to see the look on Alastair Campbell’s face!1
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Well that's the end of the George and Ed show....time to turn that off when Piers Morgan comes on.0
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The public is in mood for major reforms.FrancisUrquhart said:Peston losing it.
But I suspect that the Gina Milner team will be the first to feel them, with Media reform and Court reform to defang the tools she used.0 -
ICM must be seriously considering exiting the U.K. political polling market.FrancisUrquhart said:
Will be interesting to find out what the Tories thought the lead was yesterday. I wouldn't be surprised if there was on the day "swing-back", making it 12% rather than 10% and that pushes lots of seats the Tories way in a domino effect.RobD said:
Hm, looks like a hung parliament to me.FrancisUrquhart said:Tory / Lab - 44%/32%
Old adage, take the best Tory, worst Labour in the polls.0 -
Just think of the betting opportunities!Black_Rook said:
Wales voted to Leave.AlastairMeeks said:
The union has been finished since the Brexit vote. It’s an English nationalist project.Black_Rook said:
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.
But this is a sterile argument that's been had a million times. We are where we are.
My real concern regarding the Union with Scotland is what happens if we do have one - or more - repetitions of the failed first referendum, and it becomes obvious that the independence movement is simultaneously too strong to be denied power in Edinburgh and too weak to get what it wants. We could be going round in circles on this matter indefinitely.
That's no good for Scotland - but it's no good for the rest of us, either.0 -
Remember those polls about the prices Leavers were willing to pay? They were cool with chucking Northern Ireland to the wolves. They were cool with jettisoning Scotland. They were cool with a serious economic downturn.Black_Rook said:
Wales voted to Leave.AlastairMeeks said:
The union has been finished since the Brexit vote. It’s an English nationalist project.Black_Rook said:
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.
But this is a sterile argument that's been had a million times. We are where we are.
My real concern regarding the Union with Scotland is what happens if we do have one - or more - repetitions of the failed first referendum, and it becomes obvious that the independence movement is simultaneously too strong to be denied power in Edinburgh and too weak to get what it wants. We could be going round in circles on this matter indefinitely.
That's no good for Scotland - but it's no good for the rest of us, either.
And everyone said: “oh, they don’t really mean it.” And now they’ve just voted for all of it.1 -
People are talking her up for the leadership. But I honestly think that will hang over her. Had it been a man, her career would be finished after being arrested for physically assaulting her partner. There's a moral clarity to the argument "if you're all about equality, why doesn't that apply to women too?" Obviously there are nuances about the individual situation (there was no prosecution, although she struck him first she claims she was in fear that he might have hit her) and whether male-female violence is asymmetric (males physically stronger, more likely to kill partners etc). But even if anyone thinks those nuances are worth making, as soon as you have to start out by defending that kind of thing then you're losing.oxfordsimon said:
She should never have been allowed to stand again. The issue of domestic violence should have ended her career. I am ashamed to be represented by hertlg86 said:
Her and Davey both relatively safe after tonight.oxfordsimon said:Moran did well here on OxWAb. Undeserved. But she got the votes
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-47686844
Wouldn't entirely surprise me given the poor judgement LDs have shown in leadership selection if they end up picking her for leader because she appeals to something in their downhearted activists, and the ONE THING that the general public will "know"/think about her is that she's "a hypocritical domestic abuser" (I think senior politicians get at most 3-5 THINGS that the public know about them, but if you're leader of the Lib Dems and they're on less-seats-than-you-can-count-on-fingers-and-toes, then you'll largely have to make do with the one) and it cocks up their next election as well.1 -
Is there no prospect of any seats not being declared until mid afternoon? (other than Orkney’s)0
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Does anyone know who the Remainer who wanted to void this election was ?
As per Jolyon Maugham tweet.0 -
BTW, North Norfolk went Tory (and with a massive majority of over 14,000.) I feel vindicated 1
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Burnley had been Labour since WWI.Brom said:One of the best results thinking about it is Burnley going Tory, on the same night the remain dream died. I’d love to see the look on Alastair Campbell’s face!
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We meant it. No Deal with Scotland.AlastairMeeks said:
Remember those polls about the prices Leavers were willing to pay? They were cool with chucking Northern Ireland to the wolves. They were cool with jettisoning Scotland. They were cool with a serious economic downturn.Black_Rook said:
Wales voted to Leave.AlastairMeeks said:
The union has been finished since the Brexit vote. It’s an English nationalist project.Black_Rook said:
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.
But this is a sterile argument that's been had a million times. We are where we are.
My real concern regarding the Union with Scotland is what happens if we do have one - or more - repetitions of the failed first referendum, and it becomes obvious that the independence movement is simultaneously too strong to be denied power in Edinburgh and too weak to get what it wants. We could be going round in circles on this matter indefinitely.
That's no good for Scotland - but it's no good for the rest of us, either.
And everyone said: “oh, they don’t really mean it.” And now they’ve just voted for all of it.0 -
I quess the same that happened to the Bloc Quebeqois.Black_Rook said:
Wales voted to Leave.AlastairMeeks said:
The union has been finished since the Brexit vote. It’s an English nationalist project.Black_Rook said:
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.
But this is a sterile argument that's been had a million times. We are where we are.
My real concern regarding the Union with Scotland is what happens if we do have one - or more - repetitions of the failed first referendum, and it becomes obvious that the independence movement is simultaneously too strong to be denied power in Edinburgh and too weak to get what it wants. We could be going round in circles on this matter indefinitely.
That's no good for Scotland - but it's no good for the rest of us, either.
They lost 2 referendums in the 1990's, they still dominated Quebec for 20 years until people got bored with Quebec independence.0 -
I shouldn't have doubted youBlack_Rook said:BTW, North Norfolk went Tory (and with a massive majority of over 14,000.) I feel vindicated
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Election shows are ending but I'll wait for Cheltenham.
St Ives doesn't look like declaring any time soon as a box is stuck in Scilly.0 -
Brillo has one of those momentum idiots on BBC1, and is having the time of his life.1
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11 seats to come:
St Ives
Devon W
Dorset N
Arundel
Horsham
Croydon N
Croydon S
Cheltenham
Northamptonshire S
Orkney
Fermanagh0 -
I suppose its too much to hope the endless bollocks of fear ramping by remainers might end.another_richard said:In other news anyone remember this story from six weeks back ?
Pigs in blankets and other festive meal treats might be in short supply this Christmas, the British Meat Processors Association has warned.
It says 60% of the labour force in UK meat plants comes from other countries and the industry is not attracting enough seasonal EU workers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50205951
I ask because Morissons are now offering the new culinary delight of 'Pigs in Blankets Butty' in their Barista Bars.
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Still? I've been reading the threads after getting back from the counts and he was doing that 6 hours ago!FrancisUrquhart said:Peston losing it.
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Let's just hope that once Brexit is "done" in January, Johnson perceives his self-interest to lie in ditching the nutters and negotiating a future relationship that limits the damage.AlastairMeeks said:
And settle down to enjoy the entirely unnecessary economic damage and isolation Britain is volunteering for with no compensating benefits.RobD said:
Good. Now they can stop playing games.CarlottaVance said:
At least we know he won't let principle stand in his way.0 -
Its odd how much more likeable politicians become when they stop being politicians.FrancisUrquhart said:Well that's the end of the George and Ed show....time to turn that off when Piers Morgan comes on.
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Black_Rook said:
Goodness me.
I suppose that, at the end of the night and after all the talk of Portillo moments, it's kind of fitting that the decapitee turned out to be the leader of the Revoke Party. And now the Liberal Democrats are projected to end up with one seat fewer than they won in 2017 - and Tim Farron is the last survivor in the country between Oxford and Edinburgh. Where they're meant to go from here, who knows?
Wooden-headed Labour looks at imminent risk of going to war with itself, as the Momentum wing tries to buy time to push Corbyn Mk2 upon what's left of the PLP, and upon the nation.
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson wins an immense landslide victory in England, Nicola Sturgeon does likewise in Scotland, and the breakup of Britain once again looms upon the horizon.
Where will we find ourselves by 2024, I wonder?Black_Rook said:Goodness me.
I suppose that, at the end of the night and after all the talk of Portillo moments, it's kind of fitting that the decapitee turned out to be the leader of the Revoke Party. And now the Liberal Democrats are projected to end up with one seat fewer than they won in 2017 - and Tim Farron is the last survivor in the country between Oxford and Edinburgh. Where they're meant to go from here, who knows?
Wooden-headed Labour looks at imminent risk of going to war with itself, as the Momentum wing tries to buy time to push Corbyn Mk2 upon what's left of the PLP, and upon the nation.
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson wins an immense landslide victory in England, Nicola Sturgeon does likewise in Scotland, and the breakup of Britain once again looms upon the horizon.
Where will we find ourselves by 2024, I wonder?
Another referendum in Scotland will follow what Sturgeon tried to inflict on the UK.
Ref 1 Leave or Remain Ref 2 Leave or Remain based in the crap deal she will get from the UK.
What goes around tends to come around.0 -
It is not many elections ago when Cheltenham was one of the first seats to declare...Artist said:Election shows are ending but I'll wait for Cheltenham.
St Ives doesn't look like declaring any time soon as a box is stuck in Scilly.0 -
Do we have a scorecard for the Mike Smithson letters ?1
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Just looking at the vote swings. People were worried Tories not doing very well in Midlands, especially West Midlands, they absolutely smashed it there.0
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Who said it was going to be 1987?0
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LDs will end one down on 11 if they win Orkney but don't gain Cheltenham / St Ives0
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I see Lab have crossed 200, which is a shame. I didn't want a Tory huge majority, but given Boris has gotten a comfortable one anyway there would have been something very hard hitting about hitting the exit poll number.0
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What I liked was they kept the partisan stuff to a minimum. There was valid criticism, without just tub-thumping my team is better than your team nonsense.another_richard said:
Its odd how much more likeable politicians become when they stop being politicians.FrancisUrquhart said:Well that's the end of the George and Ed show....time to turn that off when Piers Morgan comes on.
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Turn Out - Change since 2017: -1.50
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Croydon North is a Labour hold as expected.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140006550 -
Do we know how many new Conservative MPs are ERG fodder?Chris said:
Let's just hope that once Brexit is "done" in January, Johnson perceives his self-interest to lie in ditching the nutters and negotiating a future relationship that limits the damage.AlastairMeeks said:
And settle down to enjoy the entirely unnecessary economic damage and isolation Britain is volunteering for with no compensating benefits.RobD said:
Good. Now they can stop playing games.CarlottaVance said:
At least we know he won't let principle stand in his way.0 -
Surge!FrancisUrquhart said:Turn Out - Change since 2017: -1.5
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True. I think it must be incredibly close there between the LDs and Con.oxfordsimon said:
It is not many elections ago when Cheltenham was one of the first seats to declare...Artist said:Election shows are ending but I'll wait for Cheltenham.
St Ives doesn't look like declaring any time soon as a box is stuck in Scilly.0 -
Boris did better than Thatcher, Corbyn did better than Kinnock.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Who said it was going to be 1987?
Same lead as 1987.
The SNP block just made it smaller in terms of seats for both.0 -
FWIW, something like 45% of the population in both Northern Ireland and Scotland already wanted rid of the Union *BEFORE* the 2016 EU referendum was held. And that's OK. That's their right and they can articulate good reasons for adopting that stance.AlastairMeeks said:
Remember those polls about the prices Leavers were willing to pay? They were cool with chucking Northern Ireland to the wolves. They were cool with jettisoning Scotland. They were cool with a serious economic downturn.Black_Rook said:
Wales voted to Leave.AlastairMeeks said:
The union has been finished since the Brexit vote. It’s an English nationalist project.Black_Rook said:
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.
But this is a sterile argument that's been had a million times. We are where we are.
My real concern regarding the Union with Scotland is what happens if we do have one - or more - repetitions of the failed first referendum, and it becomes obvious that the independence movement is simultaneously too strong to be denied power in Edinburgh and too weak to get what it wants. We could be going round in circles on this matter indefinitely.
That's no good for Scotland - but it's no good for the rest of us, either.
And everyone said: “oh, they don’t really mean it.” And now they’ve just voted for all of it.
However, I'm afraid that expecting the English and Welsh voter to respond to that stance with tremulous fear and wailing over the break-up of Britain may be asking a bit much. Please explain to said voter why, if so many of the Scots and Northern Irish want a divorce, they ought to care that much about preventing it?0 -
Did the Greens set up any plausible targets? Any double-digit rises or 20%+ results?0
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To the bar for the Christmas do.RobD said:
Surge!FrancisUrquhart said:Turn Out - Change since 2017: -1.5
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Labour are on course to get roughly the same percentage of seats as their share of the vote. FPTP is going nowhere.0
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The exit poll in Scotland wasn't quite as good as elsewhere. It was predicting a LD wipeout but they've held Edinburgh West, NE Fife and just now Orkney & Shetland:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S140000510 -
Oh dear one of my Facebook friends has just posted the Steve Coogan quote.1
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So how many views did the Andrew Neil tweet get in the end ?2
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I think if people are fantasising about 1984 arriving just 35 years late, they may find Boris Johnson a disappointment. That's not the way to make people love you.speedy2 said:
The public is in mood for major reforms.FrancisUrquhart said:Peston losing it.
But I suspect that the Gina Milner team will be the first to feel them, with Media reform and Court reform to defang the tools she used.0 -
Not quite as bad as predicted....but bad enough...
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Do we seriously think that the SNP is going to collapse in a heap if it fights a second referendum and loses?Chameleon said:
Famously Quebec separated from Canada after the 5th referendum.Black_Rook said:
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.0 -
The English have decided that they don’t care about being British. They want to pursue English nationalism. That is a choice. They could have prioritised the union. They decided that becoming a closed-minded country fearful of the necessary compromises of the 21st century was more important. So be it.Black_Rook said:
FWIW, something like 45% of the population in both Northern Ireland and Scotland already wanted rid of the Union *BEFORE* the 2016 EU referendum was held. And that's OK. That's their right and they can articulate good reasons for adopting that stance.AlastairMeeks said:
Remember those polls about the prices Leavers were willing to pay? They were cool with chucking Northern Ireland to the wolves. They were cool with jettisoning Scotland. They were cool with a serious economic downturn.Black_Rook said:
Wales voted to Leave.AlastairMeeks said:
The union has been finished since the Brexit vote. It’s an English nationalist project.Black_Rook said:
What's he actually meant to do? The Unionist vote in Scotland is hopelessly split. If we somehow end up with Indyref2 *AND* the No campaign wins it again, Indyref3 will simply follow in a few years' time.kle4 said:I would love to believe Boris has a plan to win over Scotland, draw it back from the brink of indy other than just saying no to them, and that that plan will work, but I cannot. He's proven me very wrong before, so I hope he will again.
The Union is finished. It's done.
But this is a sterile argument that's been had a million times. We are where we are.
My real concern regarding the Union with Scotland is what happens if we do have one - or more - repetitions of the failed first referendum, and it becomes obvious that the independence movement is simultaneously too strong to be denied power in Edinburgh and too weak to get what it wants. We could be going round in circles on this matter indefinitely.
That's no good for Scotland - but it's no good for the rest of us, either.
And everyone said: “oh, they don’t really mean it.” And now they’ve just voted for all of it.
However, I'm afraid that expecting the English and Welsh voter to respond to that stance with tremulous fear and wailing over the break-up of Britain may be asking a bit much. Please explain to said voter why, if so many of the Scots and Northern Irish want a divorce, they ought to care that much about preventing it?0 -
How many more than votes Labour received?another_richard said:So how many views did the Andrew Neil tweet get in the end ?
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My guess 10 million views, all Labour voters but no one else.another_richard said:So how many views did the Andrew Neil tweet get in the end ?
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Which was???FrancisUrquhart said:Oh dear one of my Facebook friends has just posted the Steve Coogan quote.
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