I mean the Jews may not get irony but the Labour party and its supporters don't get the British people and some of them have been living here all their lives.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
With all the crash and chaos of Boris' first few weeks, they had a strategy worked out. They called the politics right, the public were fed up with a remoaning parliament and have turfed the lot out. Almost every one of the egregious blockers have now gone.
They were gifted it. Why Labour and the Lib Dems agreed to an early election will be an enduring mystery. They should have left him dangling.
I think they completely misunderstood what the hypothetical election before oct 31st/election after Oct 31st polling meant.
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
He needs to own the EHRC report, when it arrives. Completely culpable.
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.
McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
That's because they were so fecking intransigent in the HOC votes, It was always going to cost them dearly. As for winning the other policy arguments, that's bullshit. The electorate did not believe L:abour's attempt at bribes.
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
He needs to own the EHRC report, when it arrives. Completely culpable.
Yes. But I think he will anyway. So that’s not a barrier. What might save him for now is the absence of any alternative likely to command widespread support.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
It’s a Natsy position to be in.
Pause.
Ah, my coat...
Have a good morning after last night’s shall we say, startling events.
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.
I agree. He should stay while the dust settles and have a new Labour leader in place for the autumn. Good decisions need a cool head.
My two biggest winning bets: selling the Lib Dems on the spreads and betting against the Brexit party getting any seats. I’d previously closed out at a profit a buy of the Conservatives - left quite a bit on the table though.
Still going through the constituency bets. The most notable thing for me is how the Conservatives squeezed more out of Brexicity from 2017. When you stop and think about it, that’s remarkable.
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.
I agree. He should stay while the dust settles and have a new Labour leader in place for the autumn. Good decisions need a cool head.
Yes I think it's the right move. There's certainly no rush, Labour are basically irrelevant and the Cons can do whatever they like in parliament now.
Both Lab and LD need to some hard thinking about whether they campaign for rejoin or not.
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.
I agree. He should stay while the dust settles and have a new Labour leader in place for the autumn. Good decisions need a cool head.
Listening to the news I doubt he will survive beyond Christmas
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.
I agree. He should stay while the dust settles and have a new Labour leader in place for the autumn. Good decisions need a cool head.
Since when has Corbyn's been a cool head? What next national treasure?
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.
It's surely a desire to gerrymander the succession, rather than opening up a debate on future policy direction?
Claudia Webbe is an unlikely, yet horrifying, prospect.
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.
Not sure that’s true. He wants to hang around to decide the narrative of this election result and find a placeman to carry on his ‘popular’ policies.
McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
That's because they were so fecking intransigent in the HOC votes, It was always going to cost them dearly. As for winning the other policy arguments, that's bullshit. The electorate did not believe L:abour's attempt at bribes.
Look at how much of what Boris said in 2019 matches what Corbyn said in 2017 on ending austerity, on reversing police cuts, on investing in the NHS. Heck, even Conservatives now say *our* NHS. To that extent, Labour really did win the policy arguments.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
That's because they were so fecking intransigent in the HOC votes, It was always going to cost them dearly. As for winning the other policy arguments, that's bullshit. The electorate did not believe L:abour's attempt at bribes.
Look at how much of what Boris said in 2019 matches what Corbyn said in 2017 on ending austerity, on reversing police cuts, on investing in the NHS. Heck, even Conservatives now say *our* NHS. To that extent, Labour really did win the policy arguments.
Labour had better policies, its just you wouldn't trust them to implement them
McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
That's because they were so fecking intransigent in the HOC votes, It was always going to cost them dearly. As for winning the other policy arguments, that's bullshit. The electorate did not believe L:abour's attempt at bribes.
Look at how much of what Boris said in 2019 matches what Corbyn said in 2017 on ending austerity, on reversing police cuts, on investing in the NHS. Heck, even Conservatives now say *our* NHS. To that extent, Labour really did win the policy arguments.
Labour had better policies, its just you wouldn't trust them to implement them
Very, very sorry for all my good Labour friends. Our party was taken over by the SWP and destroyed. They have gifted the country to the Tories. I would rejoin the party to help it regain its senses, but I think I’m banned.
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.
I agree. He should stay while the dust settles and have a new Labour leader in place for the autumn. Good decisions need a cool head.
Yes I think it's the right move. There's certainly no rush, Labour are basically irrelevant and the Cons can do whatever they like in parliament now.
Both Lab and LD need to some hard thinking about whether they campaign for rejoin or not.
Though the fundamentals haven't changed. While Parliament now has a Leave majority, the country remains split 50/50 on Brexit. The Remain vote was split too many ways, but the aggregate is still there.
LD should go for EEA. Rejoin is not on the cards for a decade or so.
Very, very sorry for all my good Labour friends. Our party was taken over by the SWP and destroyed. They have gifted the country to the Tories. I would rejoin the party to help it regain its senses, but I think I’m banned.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.
I agree. He should stay while the dust settles and have a new Labour leader in place for the autumn. Good decisions need a cool head.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.
Very, very sorry for all my good Labour friends. Our party was taken over by the SWP and destroyed. They have gifted the country to the Tories. I would rejoin the party to help it regain its senses, but I think I’m banned.
I hope for the good health of parliamentarians, or else they'll try and sneak Pidders back in at a nifty by-election. Perhaps Jezza could stand down in Islington North?
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.
And yet people who argue that leaving a 40 year old trading and customs Union will be terribly difficult seem to think that leaving a 300 year old political, fiscal, defence, diplomatic, trading, customs and currency union will be straightforward?
Wait until the complications on the Irish sea emerge...
Hope everyone piled on the SNP seat line on Betfair
Yes thank you so much Alistair. That was a great spot and gave me the cherry on the icing. Hadn’t seen that on the sports book so wouldn’t have seen the value.
Very, very sorry for all my good Labour friends. Our party was taken over by the SWP and destroyed. They have gifted the country to the Tories. I would rejoin the party to help it regain its senses, but I think I’m banned.
I sincerely hope your time is coming shortly.
Leamington is red!! Most Labour members are not anti-Semitic Marxists. They are good people who allowed themselves to fall into a state of delusion. I can only hope the scale of this entirely predictable defeat shakes them out of it. I worry it won’t, though.
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.
So trebles all round.
RLB should pass the threshold, so should Rayner. I think Jess has a good chance too.
I would not back any male candidate, the pressure to have a female leader is there, as it was in Swinson vs Davey.
Betting Review: Overall quite disappointing personally. Small profit which really should have been more.
Won: Con over 340 seats at evens. This was easy money and should have bet more. Lost: Con at 45-50% of vote at 8.4. Still think this was a value loser. Lost: Lab in Chingford. Lost: Con in Reading East. Should have hedged and taken a guaranteed profit. Won: Lab seats 200-209, this was post exit poll. Lost: SNP over 50.5 seats. Not sure why I made this, didn't get good odds. Won: Brexit on 0-9 seats. Free 12% return. Won: Lib Dems to get less than 40 seats. Closed out for a profit, but happy with that call. Won: Chesterfield for Lab at 1.3. Probably a bit lucky with that. Lost: Lab to win Watford. Won: Con majority. Got on that 1.53 the day before. Lost: Cities and Westminster for Lab at 15.5. Silly bet but fancied a longshot Won: Putney for Lab, but stupidly cashed out early rather than letting it ride. Won: GE to happen before Brexit.
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.
So trebles all round.
RLB should pass the threshold, so should Rayner. I think Jess has a good chance too.
I would not back any male candidate, the pressure to have a female leader is there, as it was in Swinson vs Davey.
In Labour women make the tea, they don't lead the party.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
They just did!
By voting 45-46% for pro-independence parties? By that measure in 2016 the UK voted to remain in the EU.
Very, very sorry for all my good Labour friends. Our party was taken over by the SWP and destroyed. They have gifted the country to the Tories. I would rejoin the party to help it regain its senses, but I think I’m banned.
I sincerely hope your time is coming shortly.
Leamington is red!! Most Labour members are not anti-Semitic Marxists. They are good people who allowed themselves to fall into a state of delusion. I can only hope the scale of this entirely predictable defeat shakes them out of it. I worry it won’t, though.
To be clear, some Labour members were quite clear about the unfolding disaster and did what they could to improve things.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
I used to think that, I don't think so now. Johnson's brand of Toryism is not popular there, and the fact that Scottish Labour voters switched more to the SNP (anti-Brexit) rather than the Tories (anti-independence) I think tells you the way things are going. It's certainly not nailed on, there are lots of difficult economic questions to be answered, but the difference in political outlook between Scotland and E&W is just too great to be bridged. One could say the same thing about London of course, but the rest of E&W isn't economically viable without London so while I think greater self government for London will come eventually I doubt it will ever become a full on city state.
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
They need to do exactly this.
There is a small window where in the heat of this defeat we can remove Corbyns zombie like grip. The cult will try to build the lie that it was just Brexit and they were popular. It is time to move swiftly.
I can taste the chlorinated chicken already... and it tastes good
In fairness their chicken tastes loads better than ours. Oh to have Chik Fil A in the UK.
We did - they had an outlet in reading (I think)
Then a bunch of self-righteous numpties started tearing up the shopping centre in protest about the owner’s religious beliefs and their lease wasn’t renewed
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
They need to do exactly this.
There is a small window where in the heat of this defeat we can remove Corbyns zombie like grip. The cult will try to build the lie that it was just Brexit and they were popular. It is time to move swiftly.
Totally agreed. Alastair and Foxy are plain wrong on this.
Very, very sorry for all my good Labour friends. Our party was taken over by the SWP and destroyed. They have gifted the country to the Tories. I would rejoin the party to help it regain its senses, but I think I’m banned.
I sincerely hope your time is coming shortly.
Leamington is red!! Most Labour members are not anti-Semitic Marxists. They are good people who allowed themselves to fall into a state of delusion. I can only hope the scale of this entirely predictable defeat shakes them out of it. I worry it won’t, though.
To be clear, some Labour members were quite clear about the unfolding disaster and did what they could to improve things.
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.
So trebles all round.
RLB should pass the threshold, so should Rayner. I think Jess has a good chance too.
I would not back any male candidate, the pressure to have a female leader is there, as it was in Swinson vs Davey.
Broadly agree. Although I suppose the Swinson experience might cool the female criterion slightly.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.
And yet people who argue that leaving a 40 year old trading and customs Union will be terribly difficult seem to think that leaving a 300 year old political, fiscal, defence, diplomatic, trading, customs and currency union will be straightforward?
Wait until the complications on the Irish sea emerge...
It doesn’t work like that, though, does it? I hope I’m wrong, but putting myself in the shows of a Labour voter in Scotland I’d be asking myself why stay.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
I'm Scottish, I'm not particularly well disposed of towards the SNP, but I'm certain the UK died yesterday.
45% of the Scottish people voted to leave previously, with a hard brexit and Boris in charge for the next 5 years this will get over the line. Likewise Northern Ireland returned a majority of nationalist MPs for the first time. There will be a border poll and it will be won.
Of course, this means a Tory majority of around 210 in England and Wales. Not sure how long it takes to o we turn that.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.
And yet people who argue that leaving a 40 year old trading and customs Union will be terribly difficult seem to think that leaving a 300 year old political, fiscal, defence, diplomatic, trading, customs and currency union will be straightforward?
Wait until the complications on the Irish sea emerge...
It doesn’t work like that, though, does it? I hope I’m wrong, but putting myself in the shows of a Labour voter in Scotland I’d be asking myself why stay.
because the Germans aren't going to fund your 10% spending deficit ?
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
They need to do exactly this.
There is a small window where in the heat of this defeat we can remove Corbyns zombie like grip. The cult will try to build the lie that it was just Brexit and they were popular. It is time to move swiftly.
Totally agreed. Alastair and Foxy are plain wrong on this.
Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.
Politics is brutal.
Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.
Swinson was unlucky in becoming Leader only weeks before a political crisis.
If she had really thought that frustrating Brexit was the top priority, she would have acted otherwise. (Not that I agree that revoking Brexit without at least another referendum would have been right.)
She was following the recent Lib Dem trend of unprincipled opportunism. I have to say I'm pleased that strategy has backfired. I much preferred the Liberals/Liberal Democrats as a little band campaigning for principles they believed in, rather than a bunch of political chancers saying whatever they thought would be to their short-term advantage.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independence
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.
And yet people who argue that leaving a 40 year old trading and customs Union will be terribly difficult seem to think that leaving a 300 year old political, fiscal, defence, diplomatic, trading, customs and currency union will be straightforward?
Wait until the complications on the Irish sea emerge...
It doesn’t work like that, though, does it? I hope I’m wrong, but putting myself in the shows of a Labour voter in Scotland I’d be asking myself why stay.
because the Germans aren't going to fund your 10% spending deficit ?
If there is one thing to learn over recent years, it is that nationalist emotionalism beats reason and economics.
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
They need to do exactly this.
There is a small window where in the heat of this defeat we can remove Corbyns zombie like grip. The cult will try to build the lie that it was just Brexit and they were popular. It is time to move swiftly.
Totally agreed. Alastair and Foxy are plain wrong on this.
Mr. Jonathan, I was just about to write something similar.
Labour MPs should throw Corbyn out now, whilst the memory and the pain are still fresh, and the odds are strongest against a far left fool succeeding him.
Mr. S, that does rather neglect that the people of Scotland, of whom the SNP like to speak but to whom they prefer not to listen, voted to stay in the UK in a once-in-a-generation referendum.
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.
So trebles all round.
Surely Labour can't get to the 30th anniversary of the Tories *booting out* their first woman leader - and another one since - without chalking up one for the supposed party of equality? So I'm surprised to see Starmer quite so out in front in the odds. Name recognition? That said, I hope they also hire someone electable (which is probably also why Starmer is so far out in front).
I've warmed (or at least thawed) to RLB, but I think Angela Rayner would carry more weight than her. I get they're the next generation and would carry the flame for the Dear Leader. But Cooper and possibly Thornberry should be up there on grounds of greater heft and competence, and even Jess Phillips on the grounds of socking it to the man - she'd soon get back some of the Midlands (ex)marginals and score some points at PMQs.
In any case, I'm not convinced Corbyn's timescale for leaving is at all urgent. Given a choice, I reckon he'd give himself a year plus to groom the nextgen candidates to victory. At the very best he's waiting to see how insistent others are that he buggers off pronto.
Comments
I have little joy, but reasonable coffers, after my prediction from Wed night being fairly near.
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The true Europe respects and rejoices in the diversity of its peoples.
Pause.
Ah, my coat...
Have a good morning after last night’s shall we say, startling events.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-50094551
To @Peter_the_Punter for his notice of such good odds for large Cons maj. I did indeed lump on.
Still going through the constituency bets. The most notable thing for me is how the Conservatives squeezed more out of Brexicity from 2017. When you stop and think about it, that’s remarkable.
Both Lab and LD need to some hard thinking about whether they campaign for rejoin or not.
That's all I need to win my SCon bet. Always hated Douglas Ross.
more little englandersim from you.
ditch your parochialism and look beyond your parish boundariy
Claudia Webbe is an unlikely, yet horrifying, prospect.
A huge risk to have him hang around.
LD should go for EEA. Rejoin is not on the cards for a decade or so.
https://twitter.com/OliverKamm/status/1205389276130746368?s=20
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
similar end to 1,0
So trebles all round.
People have been thrown out the party for less.
What a total unmitigated disaster your leadership was.
Wait until the complications on the Irish sea emerge...
I would not back any male candidate, the pressure to have a female leader is there, as it was in Swinson vs Davey.
Won: Con over 340 seats at evens. This was easy money and should have bet more.
Lost: Con at 45-50% of vote at 8.4. Still think this was a value loser.
Lost: Lab in Chingford.
Lost: Con in Reading East. Should have hedged and taken a guaranteed profit.
Won: Lab seats 200-209, this was post exit poll.
Lost: SNP over 50.5 seats. Not sure why I made this, didn't get good odds.
Won: Brexit on 0-9 seats. Free 12% return.
Won: Lib Dems to get less than 40 seats. Closed out for a profit, but happy with that call.
Won: Chesterfield for Lab at 1.3. Probably a bit lucky with that.
Lost: Lab to win Watford.
Won: Con majority. Got on that 1.53 the day before.
Lost: Cities and Westminster for Lab at 15.5. Silly bet but fancied a longshot
Won: Putney for Lab, but stupidly cashed out early rather than letting it ride.
Won: GE to happen before Brexit.
#equality
One could say the same thing about London of course, but the rest of E&W isn't economically viable without London so while I think greater self government for London will come eventually I doubt it will ever become a full on city state.
When the North votes Tory, then these old arguments about miners and the pits have no traction.
Then a bunch of self-righteous numpties started tearing up the shopping centre in protest about the owner’s religious beliefs and their lease wasn’t renewed
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en_uk/article/9kem5e/the-uks-first-chick-fil-a-has-announced-its-closure-after-just-eight-days
https://twitter.com/seatsixtyone/status/1205397740857024513?s=20
He's left his "Nazi UK" tweet up....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/northern_ireland
on the other hand SF and DUP going backwards is a good result by any measure.
45% of the Scottish people voted to leave previously, with a hard brexit and Boris in charge for the next 5 years this will get over the line. Likewise Northern Ireland returned a majority of nationalist MPs for the first time. There will be a border poll and it will be won.
Of course, this means a Tory majority of around 210 in England and Wales. Not sure how long it takes to o we turn that.
Progressive politics in this country is in despair. Can Labour pull themselves out of the mire? Time will tell as ever....
She was following the recent Lib Dem trend of unprincipled opportunism. I have to say I'm pleased that strategy has backfired. I much preferred the Liberals/Liberal Democrats as a little band campaigning for principles they believed in, rather than a bunch of political chancers saying whatever they thought would be to their short-term advantage.
The Conservative Party are the architects of this. Suck it up!
He has the seats for the latter...
Stable Door, Bolting and horse gone,comes to mind.
Labour MPs should throw Corbyn out now, whilst the memory and the pain are still fresh, and the odds are strongest against a far left fool succeeding him.
Mr. S, that does rather neglect that the people of Scotland, of whom the SNP like to speak but to whom they prefer not to listen, voted to stay in the UK in a once-in-a-generation referendum.
I've warmed (or at least thawed) to RLB, but I think Angela Rayner would carry more weight than her. I get they're the next generation and would carry the flame for the Dear Leader. But Cooper and possibly Thornberry should be up there on grounds of greater heft and competence, and even Jess Phillips on the grounds of socking it to the man - she'd soon get back some of the Midlands (ex)marginals and score some points at PMQs.
In any case, I'm not convinced Corbyn's timescale for leaving is at all urgent. Given a choice, I reckon he'd give himself a year plus to groom the nextgen candidates to victory. At the very best he's waiting to see how insistent others are that he buggers off pronto.