politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s quitting but not quite yet as Blair’s old seat goes t

SW Herts:

Con 30,327
Ind Gauke 15,919
Lab 7,228
LD 6,251
Grn 1,466

Boris has a very handy majority that could see him through the next election as well. He can proceed with Brexit, without the distraction of the Europhile headbangers.

Bolsover!

Buckingham gets a Tory MP back!

CON GAIN DUDLEY NORTH

Blimey. Comfortable hold for the SCONS in Banff.

Skinner gone...

Yay - I was still up for Skinner!!!!

Good lord

SKINNER!!!!!!!!!!!

Artist said:

Berger wasn't close in the end.

Pretty much what the constituency polls said ... but Con a little lower and Lab a little higher

BBC call it for the Tories

Con Gain Bolsover

Playing with the Economist data, leave-voting seats unsurprisingly voted Con +20 overall. But even down to about 40% of the leave vote Con won overall.

RobD said:

numbertwelve said:

CON HOLD BANFF & BUCHAN

vital

SNP bellow 50 seats.

Chris said:

Can I say I was "up for Swinson" if I went to bed at 11 and just woke up?

No.

Slacker.

Blimey, Bolsover. Farewell Dennis Skinner

dellertronic said:

Artist said:

Berger wasn't close in the end.

Pretty much what the constituency polls said ... but Con a little lower and Lab a little higher

Ridiculously high Labour score considering the circumstances.

wooliedyed said:

One more non SNP seat and theres no naked Ruth!

Well, I think we're all relieved, and I say that as a SNP voter.

Are the Scots Tories on 6 now?

KentRising said:

RandallFlagg said:

Blimey. Comfortable hold for the SCONS in Banff.

The East Coast is coming to the Union's rescue.

Rescue might be a strong way of putting. Spare them the worst of their blushes?

Andrew said:

Playing with the Economist data, leave-voting seats unsurprisingly voted Con +20 overall. But even down to about 40% of the leave vote Con won overall.

The reverse of 2017.

Already on a majority of 14.

Finchley numbers?

Batley & Spen:

Lab 22,594
Con 19,069

So, given how volatile Scotland is, which seats are going to flip completely in the next GE?

KentRising said:

BluestBlue said:

Are the Scots Tories on 6 now?

Yep.

Bad, but they're used to even worse.

Labour hold Hallam. They get the MP they deserve.

Artist said:

Labour hold Hallam. They get the MP they deserve.

TSE, you failed us

Artist said:

dellertronic said:

Artist said:

Berger wasn't close in the end.

Pretty much what the constituency polls said ... but Con a little lower and Lab a little higher

Ridiculously high Labour score considering the circumstances.

candidate a dull but safe local councillor... most of that vote will have been his own ward.

Artist said:

If the SNP hadn't won Swinson's seat, it wouldn't have been that notable a night for them.

Correct.
They got some Labour votes back but no one else.
Their result in terms of votes and seats is worse than 2015.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Cooper giving it "think of the children"....

She probably realised her majority has screwed her leadership chances

kle4 said:

So, given how volatile Scotland is, which seats are going to flip completely in the next GE?

KentRising said:

BluestBlue said:

Are the Scots Tories on 6 now?

Yep.

Bad, but they're used to even worse.

SNP take Gordon by 819 ;-(

MikeL said:

Finchley numbers?

Con ~ 24,000
Berger ~ 17,000
Lab ~ 13,000

Con gain Keighley

Andy_JS said:

Gordon:

SNP 23,885
Con 23,066
Lab 3,052
LD 5,913

Hoo Boy

Dagenham:

Lab 19,468
Con 19,175
BRX 2,887
LD 1,182
Grn 602
Ind 212
Ind 209

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000657

RobD said:

speedy2 said:

Vote share is:
CON 44
LAB 33
LD 11

UNS
CON 357
LAB 214
LD 18

UNS is again very reliable.

MRP a waste of money?

Yeah but this is using actual vote share so a bit cheaty, when you've only got polling data to go with there's more uncertainty. I wonder whether an advantage of MRP over UNS is that it reduces sensitivity of the MP numbers to the polling uncertainty ... perhaps it doesn't work that way at all. Might be able to stake a guess at how sensitive it is from the way the two MRP projections differed.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205352881995550720?s=20

speedy2 said:

Artist said:

If the SNP hadn't won Swinson's seat, it wouldn't have been that notable a night for them.

Correct.
They got some Labour votes back but no one else.
Their result in terms of votes and seats is worse than 2015.

The SCON vote was basically the same as 2017. But the disintegration of SLAB to the SNP damaged them.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

Dagenham:

Lab 19,468
Con 19,175
BRX 2,887
LD 1,182
Grn 602
Ind 212
Ind 209

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000657

So many waffer-thin majorities for Labour. Not only are they going to start miles behind, they will have to throw loads of resources at defending these new marginals.

No, they'll just wheel out Len McCluskey to go around saying 'Come home to Labour'.

Worked a treat this time.

I haven't looked at accuracy of the actual seat predictions, but MRP on 11% (which was the first one) won't be far out with their 58 seat majority.

MRP #2 was taken at height of photo-gate and it knocked 20 seats off from the previous day.

RandallFlagg said:

speedy2 said:

Artist said:

If the SNP hadn't won Swinson's seat, it wouldn't have been that notable a night for them.

Correct.
They got some Labour votes back but no one else.
Their result in terms of votes and seats is worse than 2015.

The SCON vote was basically the same as 2017. But the disintegration of SLAB to the SNP damaged them.

Labour did better than 2015 in votes.
But because there are so many marginals the impact was much greater.

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1205353670696722433?s=20

Astonishing that LDs couldn't take Hallam even after 'the O'Mara experience'.

RandallFlagg said:

Astonishing that LDs couldn't take Hallam even after 'the O'Mara experience'.

Massive student seat.

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Turn-out 67% so far...so again total horse-shit about voting rush.

All that guff about registration too.

Except that there really was a late registration rush and there really were queues to vote. Whether there were regional variations, or we should question the lazy assumption these were all or even mainly Labour voters, can wait.

Andy_JS said:

Pulpstar said:

So close in Coventry.

Coventry NW must be very close. Also Carshalton & Wallington.

NW might be the most marginal seat in the country

Tom Brake loses by 700

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Turn-out 67% so far...so again total horse-shit about voting rush.

All that guff about registration too.

Except that there really was a late registration rush and there really were queues to vote. Whether there were regional variations, or we should question the lazy assumption these were all or even mainly Labour voters, can wait.

But turn-out isn't up. And registration increase was basically inline with population increase (and as I said numerous times, lots of uni now auto-enroll all students).