politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polls – almost
Options
Comments
-
That's a fair point, I apologise. Though I stand by point between replace the word 'Labour' for the 'Left as a whole'. As I still think that's very unfair. Any more than tarring the right as a whole for the actions of EDL...olm said:
I condemned the British Left as a whole. I did not specify Labour. Although the SWP and Labour are two peas in a pod these days. One blends easily into the other.Gabs3 said:
I'm not defending Labour for their dealing with anti-Semitism, I'm saying not to be disingenuous with the truth and tar them with actions of Social Workers Party, that is outrageous.olm said:Gabs3 said:
We can look at what is done in the Labour Party if you prefer...
https://www.news.sky.com/story/amp/12-shocking-claims-of-abuse-in-leaked-labour-antisemitism-dossier-11879053At Labour's 2017 conference, a member said he shared a table with two delegates he did not know who agreed Jews were "subhuman", "didn't deserve to be allowed to define what constitutes antisemitism" and should be "grateful we don't make them eat bacon…
A party member said: "The only reason we have prostitutes in Seven Sisters is because of the Jews"
One person listed 22 examples of antisemitic abuse directed at him at local party meetings, including being called "a Tory Jew", "a child killer", "Zio scum", being told "he's good with money", "to shut the f*** up, Jew" and "Hitler was right"
I condemned the British Left as a whole. I did not specify Labour. Although the SWP and Labour are two peas in a pod these days. One blends easily into the other.
Also, SWP and Lab are most definitely not two peas of a pod, they are further than they've ever been in my lifetime. They hate Momentum, let alone the others, they just hate Johnson more. And they hate Israel so they'll take any opportunity they can force themselves in...
On your point about the 'Left as a whole', that's still unfair and not sustainable to argue, any more than equating EDL to the right as a whole is unsustainable.
The original article (not your post), but which you shared is utterly dishonest.
It inferred the actions were by Labour by very clear inference i.e. 'sort of stuff you expect to see from EDL... not a a major political party'. That's untrue. SWP is not a major political party and is not Labour, just as EDL is not Conservative.
It also states 'Corbyn's supporters' which is tenuous, they weren't 'his' supporters, they were another party who supports Corbyn. Significant difference. Also it quotes 'Kinder gentler politics', which again disingenuously connects the actions of the SWP Labour.
0 -
Oh for pity's sake. You're going to win. You may not win bigly but you will win convincingly. Nothing has changed since the election was called. Boris has a bigger slice of a bigger slice. Boris is popular, at least amongst those voters willing to overlook his morals. Corbyn is voter repellent. Labour decided to wank itself stupid instead of fighting an election. Conservatives snogged Brexit Party to death. This thing was dead before it even started.Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
Aaargh!
1 -
They're pretty explicitly pro-Brexitbrokenwheel said:
Really? Memory must be failing me then, I was sure I read something at the time about at least some of their supporters doing it.rcs1000 said:
The BNP supports Brexit and the UK leaving the ECHR.brokenwheel said:I know at least Nick Griffin voiced his support for Corbyn last year.
Didn't they also campaign for Remain because at least they iz white innit?
https://bnp.org.uk/brexit-is-our-destiny/0 -
I hope you're right.viewcode said:
Oh for pity's sake. You're going to win. You may not win bigly but you will win convincingly. Nothing has changed since the election was called. Boris has a bigger slice of a bigger slice. Boris is popular, at least amongst those voters willing to overlook his morals. Corbyn is voter repellent. Labour decided to wank itself stupid instead of fighting an election. Conservatives snogged Brexit Party to death. This thing was dead before it even started.Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
Aaargh!
Quite frankly, I'm scared.0 -
Just saw the Survation numbers. Worrying that more than a third of the electorate would vote for a bunch of Marxists thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Anyway, I suppose if the polls are right this election has been decided because Farage was more crap than Swinson: had it been the other way around, we could be heading Venezuela-wards tomrorow.-1 -
One thing I've noticed is, apart from the impact of cold wet weather (notably not the impact of early sunset...), no one has really been talking about turnout.
Before we've had reports about percentages of returned postals etc, can't see any mention of it this time. I sense there are a lot of undecideds, and quite a lot of apathy; many may simply not bother to vote. Against that you would guess after how close the last election was that it would motivate people.0 -
Get used to it. The older you are the more trouble you will have sleeping.Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.5 -
Something to look forward to.MikeSmithson said:
Get used to it. The older you are the more trouble you will have sleeping.Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.0 -
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.0 -
It is interesting that this antisemitic character that Johnson seems to have written, much more explicit than anything Corbyn has ever said, seem to be unknown to most people.olm said:
Lol, I think not. They gush praise for Johnson regularly...brokenwheel said:
Point of order, I believe the BNP support their fellow subjects of EHRC investigation.olm said:
Tarring Labour with the vile actions of the **Social Workers Party** is utterly disingenuous of you.Gabs3 said:
Truly horrific. The British Left are horrible. I am ashamed I ever counted myself among them.CarlottaVance said:
They may want Corbyn to beat Johnson, just as EDL and BNP would want Johnson to beat Corbyn. But they are not the responsibility of Corbyn or his party. That's a ridiculous suggestion.
Unsurprising, since Johnson is himself a notorious anti-Semite...
He wrote of 'Jewish oligarchs' running the media.
Another book of his portrays a Jewish character, Sammy Katz, with a “proud nose and curly hair”, and paints him as a malevolent, stingy, snake-like Jewish businessman who exploits immigrant workers for profit.
Johnson also, as editor of the Spectator, against protestations, chose to publish articles by his mate Taki Theodoracopulos who boasted of being “an antisemite”, is a racist, and who wrote of the 'global Jewish conspiracy'. Alas Johnson could no longer help his mate, as Johnson was then infamously fired for plagiarism.
On top of that, the Tories are investigating, at least 5 counts of anti-Semitism amongst their current crop of candidates for MPs... But decisions not taken before the election. (Unlike SNP etc... who acted swiftly to deselect and disown).0 -
What are the Survation numbers ?Fishing said:Just saw the Survation numbers. Worrying that more than a third of the electorate would vote for a bunch of Marxists thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Anyway, I suppose if the polls are right this election has been decided because Farage was more crap than Swinson: had it been the other way around, we could be heading Venezuela-wards tomrorow.0 -
I've just seen rcs1000's forecast (at 2:06 on this thread) for a 100+ Tory Majority. He's no mug, so I'm going to take my Horlicks and get back to bed. I've already voted so there's nowt else I can do.0
-
Many of the people who would vote for them have never heard of the Berlin Wall - or it's ancient history.Fishing said:Just saw the Survation numbers. Worrying that more than a third of the electorate would vote for a bunch of Marxists thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
For example - yesterday's DeltaPoll - Con Lead:
18-24: -48
25-34: -25
35-54: +7
55-64: +25
65+: +500 -
Ah, sorry - half asleep ; I see everything is up at the top. The pollsters once again are staking their reputation. Some of those numbers are far too generous I think, but equally Johnson may scrape through with anything up to 20-25, is my final impression.0
-
In 1935 the prime minister was toast. This time, in Uxbridge...kjohnw1 said:If RCS is right we are heading for a 1935 result incoming . Labour will get the kicking it deserves and will either self destruct or rebrand . Corbyn will be toast. Thank goodness . If his party won’t get rid of him the British public will do the job .
0 -
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.1 -
Good morning, and happy Election Day everyone!
Campaign is over, now it’s down to the voting.
Good luck to those betting, and those involved as candidates or activists. (Esp @Tissue_Price) - and the PB data modelling team!
This time tomorrow, we’ll have a pretty good idea of the result. :O1 -
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.0 -
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.
0 -
viewcode said:
Oh for pity's sake. You're going to win. You may not win bigly but you will win convincingly. Nothing has changed since the election was called. Boris has a bigger slice of a bigger slice. Boris is popular, at least amongst those voters willing to overlook his morals. Corbyn is voter repellent. Labour decided to wank itself stupid instead of fighting an election. Conservatives snogged Brexit Party to death. This thing was dead before it even started.Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
Aaargh!
There’s nowt so flaky as a Conservative, as we LibDems found to our surprise during the coalition.
In other news, Labour’s national polling station finder is snazzy and easy to use; just a shame it sends half my town to somewhere that isn’t being used as a polling station at all.0 -
I’m in agreement with the last couple of comments - our politics has become increasingly ugly over the last couple of years, with growing incomprehension and intolerance of the views of political opponents. And I don’t easily see how we walk back from that any time soon.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
In any event, I might be a bit scarce round here for a time, as I suffered a house fire yesterday... which is not ideal in the run up to Christmas.0 -
It is the character of the winner, sadly.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
Still, I expect tomorrow will be the high spot of what historians will come to see as an ignominious term of office. I expect his reputation will be down there with Cameron by the time he is done.0 -
A lot of right wing politicians, media pundits, PB posters and others who have spent years talking about liberty, accountability and scrutiny are going to spend the next few years justifying the Johnson government’s moves to restrict all three.5
-
There was another PB’er there on that night posting us regular reports. What an amazing coincidence.Byronic said:
I was literally in Rome enjoying a posho rooftop party for the 2017 election. There were half naked dancers and the like. Then the exit poll came in and I felt shocked for about 10 minutes, then I went back to the Trentodoc wine and foie gras bruschettaCookie said:
Count no chickens, friend. Remember how much we were panicking not 24 hours ago. And indeed how content we were feeling 24 hours before that. Who knows what the next 24 hours will bring.Byronic said:bIG tORY wIN INCOMING
I have never felt as physically sick at an exit poll as in 2017. I had thought Corbynism would be banished back to the mad place it came from. I'm in no mood for tallying poultry.
Strange days. It was like a Fellini film.2 -
Just you wait and see what Johnson will do with our constitution.IanB2 said:
It is the character of the winner, sadly.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
Still, I expect tomorrow will be the high spot of what historians will come to see as an ignominious term of office. I expect his reputation will be down there with Cameron by the time he is done.
0 -
Your party knew that on 5th May 2010, but then trusted the tories during the following week, resulting in a poorly prepared coalition agreement.IanB2 said:viewcode said:
Oh for pity's sake. You're going to win. You may not win bigly but you will win convincingly. Nothing has changed since the election was called. Boris has a bigger slice of a bigger slice. Boris is popular, at least amongst those voters willing to overlook his morals. Corbyn is voter repellent. Labour decided to wank itself stupid instead of fighting an election. Conservatives snogged Brexit Party to death. This thing was dead before it even started.Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
Aaargh!
There’s nowt so flaky as a Conservative, as we LibDems found to our surprise during the coalition.
0 -
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.0 -
I'm off to do a few hours' telling in Southgate.
My prediction is Con 360, Lib Dem 18, SNP 40, Northern Ireland 18, Others 7 (including the East Devon Independent) Labour 207 or thereabouts.0 -
It has a lot to do with Corbyn. He is loathed so much , its visceral, BUT "GET BREXIT DONE" is the message that has won through.Jonathan said:
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.0 -
It was an expertly crafted bit of electioneering, almost as good as take back control. Genius really, but like take back control, undeliverable.squareroot2 said:
It has a lot to do with Corbyn. He is loathed so much , its visceral, BUT "GET BREXIT DONE" is the message that has won through.Jonathan said:
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
0 -
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.0 -
IF the Tories win a majority and the WA goes through then for the vast majority of people that should be the end of Brexit.Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.
Fine if the LD's and Labour want to campaign to rejoin the EU at a future GE, more power to them, but the interminable whining and griping about 2016 should cease.
1 -
I may be no mug, but I am far from always correct.peter_from_putney said:I've just seen rcs1000's forecast (at 2:06 on this thread) for a 100+ Tory Majority. He's no mug, so I'm going to take my Horlicks and get back to bed. I've already voted so there's nowt else I can do.
0 -
-
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.
0 -
I hope you are not measuring success against the best ever results for each party. If the tories do get 380 seats tonight, will you be saying "still well below the 1983 majority"?HYUFD said:
Hardly, SNP still well below 2015 levels which was even before the Brexit vote.nico67 said:
What’s he talking about . They’ve released the Scottish poll and it’s a horror show for the Union .CarlottaVance said:
0 -
I think the quarrels over Brexit are nothing compared to the viciousness of this sort of thing...
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1204929598896693249
1 -
Boris Johnson looks set to defy expectations by retaining the majority of Conservative seats in Scotland, according to an exclusive general election poll for The Courier.
Research by Survation suggests the SNP will dominate today’s general election but not manage the clean sweep of Tory seats predicted in some quarters.
The result would be a boost to Mr Johnson’s hopes of securing a UK majority and getting Westminster approval for his Brexit deal.
It also means close-fought battles between the SNP and the Conservatives in seats like Angus, Perth and North Perthshire and Ochil and South Perthshire.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/uk-politics/1039917/general-election-exclusive-courier-poll-suggests-conservatives-and-snp-to-be-tonights-big-winners/0 -
Your forecast of 18 Northern Irish seats is pretty bold. How confident are you we won't see Ulster breaking out and getting north of 20?Sean_F said:I'm off to do a few hours' telling in Southgate.
My prediction is Con 360, Lib Dem 18, SNP 40, Northern Ireland 18, Others 7 (including the East Devon Independent) Labour 207 or thereabouts.3 -
The griping will not cease, just as the griping in Scotland did not cease after the first Sindyref.SunnyJim said:
IF the Tories win a majority and the WA goes through then for the vast majority of people that should be the end of Brexit.Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.
Fine if the LD's and Labour want to campaign to rejoin the EU at a future GE, more power to them, but the interminable whining and griping about 2016 should cease.
The people voting to "Get Brexit Done" in Durham and Brum are not going to be pleased by the result either. Why would they vote Tory ever again?0 -
After five years of Johnson rule UK citizens will enjoy fewer personal freedoms than they do now and will be less able to hold the government to account than they are now.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.
0 -
-
The left's total failure over this has removed a strong ethical element over race from British politics. They've shifted to the much more febrile culture wars approach, which is going so well in the US.SunnyJim said:I think the quarrels over Brexit are nothing compared to the viciousness of this sort of thing...
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/12049295988966932491 -
The promise to get Brexit done, is that the government will stop talking about it and focus on other things in this Parliament. That is unlikely to happen.Foxy said:
The griping will not cease, just as the griping in Scotland did not cease after the first Sindyref.SunnyJim said:
IF the Tories win a majority and the WA goes through then for the vast majority of people that should be the end of Brexit.Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.
Fine if the LD's and Labour want to campaign to rejoin the EU at a future GE, more power to them, but the interminable whining and griping about 2016 should cease.
The people voting to "Get Brexit Done" in Durham and Brum are not going to be pleased by the result either. Why would they vote Tory ever again?0 -
Maybe they were sleeping in the same hotel room.IanB2 said:
There was another PB’er there on that night posting us regular reports. What an amazing coincidence.Byronic said:
I was literally in Rome enjoying a posho rooftop party for the 2017 election. There were half naked dancers and the like. Then the exit poll came in and I felt shocked for about 10 minutes, then I went back to the Trentodoc wine and foie gras bruschettaCookie said:
Count no chickens, friend. Remember how much we were panicking not 24 hours ago. And indeed how content we were feeling 24 hours before that. Who knows what the next 24 hours will bring.Byronic said:bIG tORY wIN INCOMING
I have never felt as physically sick at an exit poll as in 2017. I had thought Corbynism would be banished back to the mad place it came from. I'm in no mood for tallying poultry.
Strange days. It was like a Fellini film.0 -
Merely reflects the party stereotypes. If the Tories are viewed as arrogant and entitled, so Labour appears to have a massive moral superiority complex.CarlottaVance said:
So of course it's "us" versus "them." Labour thinks it has a monopoly on virtue.
On topic: I've just caught up on Survation from last night. Bearing in mind that they got closest to the actual result last time, that set of numbers - 45/34/9, coupled with a substantial swing to the SNP in Scotland - implies an SNP landslide in Scotland and a Tory landslide in England. That's well into bye-bye Britain territory. The country that goes to the polls in 2024 may be very different from that which does so today.0 -
Yup, we will remember why people cheered in 1997.SouthamObserver said:
After five years of Johnson rule UK citizens will enjoy fewer personal freedoms than they do now and will be less able to hold the government to account than they are now.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.0 -
The battle lines in the Republic of Ireland, between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, are still drawn from acceptance or not of the settlement reached with Britain over Home Rule.SunnyJim said:
IF the Tories win a majority and the WA goes through then for the vast majority of people that should be the end of Brexit.Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.
Fine if the LD's and Labour want to campaign to rejoin the EU at a future GE, more power to them, but the interminable whining and griping about 2016 should cease.
It is undoubtedly better for the health of the UK political system that the referendum is enacted. But I think it is naive to think the fissure in UK political life will simply heal itself because we've left.0 -
They may not vote Tory again.Foxy said:
The griping will not cease, just as the griping in Scotland did not cease after the first Sindyref.
The people voting to "Get Brexit Done" in Durham and Brum are not going to be pleased by the result either. Why would they vote Tory ever again?
But once Labour move to a rejoin position they won't be voting for them either.0 -
And curiously similar to the Corbyn comments Carlotta posted at 5:44...Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.
0 -
Whatever happens there'll be plenty of sore losers to provide equally sickening balance whoever wins.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.0 -
I would have to disagree with the equivalence of Ireland and the EU.rcs1000 said:
The battle lines in the Republic of Ireland, between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, are still drawn from acceptance or not of the settlement reached with Britain over Home Rule.
It is undoubtedly better for the health of the UK political system that the referendum is enacted. But I think it is naive to think the fissure in UK political life will simply heal itself because we've left.
Regardless, any fissure will be an internal party management issue for Labour rather than a collective one for the country as a whole.
I said at the start of this election that the losing party (and a HP would be the Tories losing) would face a challenging time surviving in their current form.
The Tories will never be a party of rejoin.
Labour on the other hand is going to have to alienate a huge block of its potential future vote by positioning itself to either rejoin or not.0 -
Boris and the Tories cannot expect any support or goodwill following their divisive rhetoric and actions..felix said:
Whatever happens there'll be plenty of sore losers to provide equally sickening balance whoever wins.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.
0 -
Is it? We will see later..not so suresquareroot2 said:
It has a lot to do with Corbyn. He is loathed so much , its visceral, BUT "GET BREXIT DONE" is the message that has won through.Jonathan said:
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.0 -
That's a good point RCSrcs1000 said:
Your forecast of 18 Northern Irish seats is pretty bold. How confident are you we won't see Ulster breaking out and getting north of 20?Sean_F said:I'm off to do a few hours' telling in Southgate.
My prediction is Con 360, Lib Dem 18, SNP 40, Northern Ireland 18, Others 7 (including the East Devon Independent) Labour 207 or thereabouts.
This country needs more NI MPs.
if we had 650 of them they could all refuse to sit together like they do back home and then there would be nobody in government and the country would be a better place.0 -
Yet another one-sided and partisan post by you.IanB2 said:
It is the character of the winner, sadly.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
Still, I expect tomorrow will be the high spot of what historians will come to see as an ignominious term of office. I expect his reputation will be down there with Cameron by the time he is done.
Corbyn is off the scale and yet you continue to exercise your personal dislike of Johnson above everything else.
Shameful.1 -
Survation shows the continued Lib Dem fall. I suspect most will swing behind Labour today and the result will be as I expect.0
-
Another apologist.Jonathan said:
Boris and the Tories cannot expect any support or goodwill following their divisive rhetoric and actions..felix said:
Whatever happens there'll be plenty of sore losers to provide equally sickening balance whoever wins.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.
Look at that video from last night at the Corbyn 'victory' party. Those are the people you're associating with.1 -
Someone’s got sour grapes this morning 😀Jonathan said:
Yup, we will remember why people cheered in 1997.SouthamObserver said:
After five years of Johnson rule UK citizens will enjoy fewer personal freedoms than they do now and will be less able to hold the government to account than they are now.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.0 -
Very sorry to hear that Nigel. I hope no one was injured and you get things sorted speedily.Nigelb said:
I’m in agreement with the last couple of comments - our politics has become increasingly ugly over the last couple of years, with growing incomprehension and intolerance of the views of political opponents. And I don’t easily see how we walk back from that any time soon.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
In any event, I might be a bit scarce round here for a time, as I suffered a house fire yesterday... which is not ideal in the run up to Christmas.
0 -
There will be no magnanimity from PM Johnson, and certainly nothing from Cummings, who will achieve his objective of bringing down the institutions of the British Constitution. Britain Trump will not have courts nor congress to restrain his blunders.Jonathan said:
Boris and the Tories cannot expect any support or goodwill following their divisive rhetoric and actions..felix said:
Whatever happens there'll be plenty of sore losers to provide equally sickening balance whoever wins.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.0 -
Every victory contains the seeds of subsequent defeat. Cameron’s led to the referendum that sunk his career and reputation. May sunk hers there and then.Foxy said:
The griping will not cease, just as the griping in Scotland did not cease after the first Sindyref.SunnyJim said:
IF the Tories win a majority and the WA goes through then for the vast majority of people that should be the end of Brexit.Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.
Fine if the LD's and Labour want to campaign to rejoin the EU at a future GE, more power to them, but the interminable whining and griping about 2016 should cease.
The people voting to "Get Brexit Done" in Durham and Brum are not going to be pleased by the result either. Why would they vote Tory ever again?0 -
So the big question of the day - Comedy Results or Gold Standard?
I'm about 30th in the queue waiting for the polling station to open.
(That was fake news, btw)0 -
In a few short hours we will have the answer to this question: did people prefer to get Brexit done or get rid of the Tories after nine years?0
-
You're being a total partisan twat this morning.Jonathan said:
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
Beneath you.0 -
personally I don't recall cheeringJonathan said:
Yup, we will remember why people cheered in 1997.SouthamObserver said:
After five years of Johnson rule UK citizens will enjoy fewer personal freedoms than they do now and will be less able to hold the government to account than they are now.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.
I recall thinking this blokes a con man0 -
I see this as a rather different "battle". Rather than seeing it as about UK vs EU, I think it is a deeper one between nationalists and internationalists.SunnyJim said:
I would have to disagree with the equivalence of Ireland and the EU.rcs1000 said:
The battle lines in the Republic of Ireland, between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, are still drawn from acceptance or not of the settlement reached with Britain over Home Rule.
It is undoubtedly better for the health of the UK political system that the referendum is enacted. But I think it is naive to think the fissure in UK political life will simply heal itself because we've left.
Regardless, any fissure will be an internal party management issue for Labour rather than a collective one for the country as a whole.
I said at the start of this election that the losing party (and a HP would be the Tories losing) would face a challenging time surviving in their current form.
The Tories will never be a party of rejoin.
Labour on the other hand is going to have to alienate a huge block of its potential future vote by positioning itself to either rejoin or not.
For the period from 1970 to 2008 (or so), internationalism was on the up. Institutions like the WTO, the EU, etc, took more and more power from national governments. People got more internationally mobile. The importance of the nation state was diminished.
While there were positive consequences of this, there were also negative ones. In particular, democratic accountability suffered. (Essentially, community control declined. This is seen in immigration and in many other areas.)
With the GFC, faith in internationalism to keep raising living standards declined, and nationalism (and I don't use the word in a derogatory sense) was on the rise again.
Brexit is one facet of this.
But the internationalists don't disappear, just because Brexit's happened. And given that group skews younger, and we're likely heading into a recession, they're likely to be in the ascendant for at least some of the next decade. Which is why a sensible government needs to remember to co-opt at least some of the internationalists rather than allowing the UK to whipsaw in the opposite direction at some point in the near future.1 -
Will people post turnout anecdotes today? What I am particularly interested in is youth turnout.
0 -
Give it a rest. It’s perfectly ok to make another choice than Conservative. It’s still a free country, just about.Casino_Royale said:
Another apologist.Jonathan said:
Boris and the Tories cannot expect any support or goodwill following their divisive rhetoric and actions..felix said:
Whatever happens there'll be plenty of sore losers to provide equally sickening balance whoever wins.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.
Look at that video from last night at the Corbyn 'victory' party. Those are the people you're associating with.0 -
He’ll have more power and influence over our lives than Corbyn, of course it is right to focus on his character,Casino_Royale said:
Yet another one-sided and partisan post by you.IanB2 said:
It is the character of the winner, sadly.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
Still, I expect tomorrow will be the high spot of what historians will come to see as an ignominious term of office. I expect his reputation will be down there with Cameron by the time he is done.
Corbyn is off the scale and yet you continue to exercise your personal dislike of Johnson above everything else.
Shameful.0 -
In terms of the result today, I would say that I'm 90% confident of some kind of Tory majority; I don't definitively rule out a Hung Parliament, which seems more plausible than a three-figure Tory majority, but I'm not expecting one (although a little warning bell in the back of my mind still tolls with respect to the Labour robot vote, so I'm trying to remain mentally prepared for the eventuality of Prime Minister Corbyn nonetheless.)
I think that the final result will be somewhere not too far from the most recent YouGov MRP, although it looks a little on the stingy side for the Cons, notably with that bloc of too-close-to-call results in North Wales that doesn't really stack up with the Welsh Barometer. I'd say Con Maj 40 or thereabouts, i.e. more like 1979 territory than either 1983 or 1992.
(All of this means that there almost certainly will be a Hung Parliament: I have all the predictive abilities of Mystic Meg.)0 -
There's no government like no government.Alanbrooke said:
That's a good point RCSrcs1000 said:
Your forecast of 18 Northern Irish seats is pretty bold. How confident are you we won't see Ulster breaking out and getting north of 20?Sean_F said:I'm off to do a few hours' telling in Southgate.
My prediction is Con 360, Lib Dem 18, SNP 40, Northern Ireland 18, Others 7 (including the East Devon Independent) Labour 207 or thereabouts.
This country needs more NI MPs.
if we had 650 of them they could all refuse to sit together like they do back home and then there would be nobody in government and the country would be a better place.
Indeed, I fear that we're about to discover the downsides of strong government.1 -
I am simply reflecting on what has been thrown at me here. I can’t recall ever advocating people vote for any single party.Casino_Royale said:
You're being a total partisan twat this morning.Jonathan said:
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
Beneath you.
0 -
One of the more shocking stats of this election is that there are 100 000 people waiting for hospital treatment in NI for more than a year. Pretty astonishing in a place with only 1 800 000 people. It puts the failures of the English and Welsh NHS into perspective.Alanbrooke said:
That's a good point RCSrcs1000 said:
Your forecast of 18 Northern Irish seats is pretty bold. How confident are you we won't see Ulster breaking out and getting north of 20?Sean_F said:I'm off to do a few hours' telling in Southgate.
My prediction is Con 360, Lib Dem 18, SNP 40, Northern Ireland 18, Others 7 (including the East Devon Independent) Labour 207 or thereabouts.
This country needs more NI MPs.
if we had 650 of them they could all refuse to sit together like they do back home and then there would be nobody in government and the country would be a better place.
0 -
Why do you assume that LibDems falling will swing behind Labour when surely a major part of their rise was linked to Conservatives appalled by Johnson? But who are shit scared of Corbyn(ism)CorrectHorseBattery said:Survation shows the continued Lib Dem fall. I suspect most will swing behind Labour today and the result will be as I expect.
0 -
Can we all be pleasant today whatever the result0
-
What are you predicting?CorrectHorseBattery said:Survation shows the continued Lib Dem fall. I suspect most will swing behind Labour today and the result will be as I expect.
I closed out my lays on the Tories a couple of days ago when Labour had the strong polls.
0 -
..0
-
Like I said plenty of sore losers - but bitterness even before a vote has barely been cast - that 's some sour lemons.Jonathan said:
Boris and the Tories cannot expect any support or goodwill following their divisive rhetoric and actions..felix said:
Whatever happens there'll be plenty of sore losers to provide equally sickening balance whoever wins.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.0 -
Thanks.RobinWiggs said:
Very sorry to hear that Nigel. I hope no one was injured and you get things sorted speedily.Nigelb said:
I’m in agreement with the last couple of comments - our politics has become increasingly ugly over the last couple of years, with growing incomprehension and intolerance of the views of political opponents. And I don’t easily see how we walk back from that any time soon.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
In any event, I might be a bit scarce round here for a time, as I suffered a house fire yesterday... which is not ideal in the run up to Christmas.
No one injured, and the fire service were admirably efficient... but it’s going to take some time to make the house fully habitable again.
Anyway, off to start sorting some stuff out.
1 -
And Corbyn and Labour would?Jonathan said:
Boris and the Tories cannot expect any support or goodwill following their divisive rhetoric and actions..felix said:
Whatever happens there'll be plenty of sore losers to provide equally sickening balance whoever wins.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.1 -
I do hope not. There is nothing so worthless as a turnout anecdote.CorrectHorseBattery said:Will people post turnout anecdotes today? What I am particularly interested in is youth turnout.
2 -
You may be right about the Hung Parliament, but there's not much cheer in those Survation numbers for Labour backers at all. It suggests an 11% Con lead even with the Lib Dems crushed all the way down to 9%.CorrectHorseBattery said:Survation shows the continued Lib Dem fall. I suspect most will swing behind Labour today and the result will be as I expect.
The Yellows polled about 8% in both 2015 and 2017. There's almost nothing left there for Labour to squeeze.0 -
A fair post. I guess we could all help by being generous to each other.Nigelb said:
I’m in agreement with the last couple of comments - our politics has become increasingly ugly over the last couple of years, with growing incomprehension and intolerance of the views of political opponents. And I don’t easily see how we walk back from that any time soon.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
In any event, I might be a bit scarce round here for a time, as I suffered a house fire yesterday... which is not ideal in the run up to Christmas.
Sorry to hear the news about your house. I hope it wasn't too major and it all gets sorted quickly.0 -
As polling stations across Great Britain prepare to open their doors, reports are already coming in that turnout in Northern Ireland is said to be “brisk”, with many electors responding to the call to “Vote early, vote often”.2
-
Hung Parliament.SunnyJim said:
What are you predicting?CorrectHorseBattery said:Survation shows the continued Lib Dem fall. I suspect most will swing behind Labour today and the result will be as I expect.
I closed out my lays on the Tories a couple of days ago when Labour had the strong polls.
Tories largest party, around 310 seats.
Although because we live in the strangest timeline, I’m not ruling out Labour being the largest party for maximum comedy value.0 -
Biter, nope. Just reflecting that the bile chucked out from CCHQ and outriders makes it difficult for Boris to unite anything. It’s going to be stomach churning when he starts spouting the need to come together after all that.felix said:
Like I said plenty of sore losers - but bitterness even before a vote has barely been cast - that 's some sour lemons.Jonathan said:
Boris and the Tories cannot expect any support or goodwill following their divisive rhetoric and actions..felix said:
Whatever happens there'll be plenty of sore losers to provide equally sickening balance whoever wins.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.0 -
Spot onrcs1000 said:
I see this as a rather differeished.SunnyJim said:
I would have to disagree with the to either rejoin or not.rcs1000 said:
The battle lines in the Republic of Ireland, between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, are still drawn from acceptance or not of the settlement reached with Britain over Home Rule.
It is undoubtedly better for the health of the UK political system that the referendum is enacted. But I think it is naive to think the fissure in UK political life will simply heal itself because we've left.
While there were positive consequences of this, there were also negative ones. In particular, democratic accountability suffered. (Essentially, community control declined. This is seen in immigration and in many other areas.)
With the GFC, faith in internationalism to keep raising living standards declined, and nationalism (and I don't use the word in a derogatory sense) was on the rise again.
Brexit is one facet of this.
But the internationalists don't disappear, just because Brexit's happened. And given that group skews younger, and we're likely heading into a recession, they're likely to be in the ascendant for at least some of the next decade. Which is why a sensible government needs to remember to co-opt at least some of the internationalists rather than allowing the UK to whipsaw in the opposite direction at some point in the near future.
The problem the internationalists had was they totally forgot they were responsible to national electorates. Those pushing the global agenda did well out of it but alienated the people who got left behind. A country is not like a company. A company can shed excess labour a country cant, given the electoral dynamics we are all our brothers keepers. Eventually the losers outweighed the gainers and hence Brexit.
The national agenda will presumably get pushed for a while, and as you say the internationalists will have to regroup. The question is when they come back have the learnt from their mistakes or are we just destined to repeat a cycle of in out ?0 -
Happy voting everyone, Polls open in one minute.2
-
I made a comment about the ugliness of the campaign. I threw nothing at you. But, you took it as a partisan dig, and responded in kind.Jonathan said:
I am simply reflecting on what has been thrown at me here. I can’t recall ever advocating people vote for any single party.Casino_Royale said:
You're being a total partisan twat this morning.Jonathan said:
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
Beneath you.
You are a pointless drone.0 -
7 hours ago the WTO resolutions panel became inquorate and can no longer resolve trade disputes.rcs1000 said:
I see this as a rather different "battle". Rather than seeing it as about UK vs EU, I think it is a deeper one between nationalists and internationalists.SunnyJim said:
I would have to disagree with the equivalence of Ireland and the EU.rcs1000 said:
The battle lines in the Republic of Ireland, between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, are still drawn from acceptance or not of the settlement reached with Britain over Home Rule.
It is undoubtedly better for the health of the UK political system that the referendum is enacted. But I think it is naive to think the fissure in UK political life will simply heal itself because we've left.
Regardless, any fissure will be an internal party management issue for Labour rather than a collective one for the country as a whole.
I said at the start of this election that the losing party (and a HP would be the Tories losing) would face a challenging time surviving in their current form.
The Tories will never be a party of rejoin.
Labour on the other hand is going to have to alienate a huge block of its potential future vote by positioning itself to either rejoin or not.
For the period from 1970 to 2008 (or so), internationalism was on the up. Institutions like the WTO, the EU, etc, took more and more power from national governments. People got more internationally mobile. The importance of the nation state was diminished.
While there were positive consequences of this, there were also negative ones. In particular, democratic accountability suffered. (Essentially, community control declined. This is seen in immigration and in many other areas.)
With the GFC, faith in internationalism to keep raising living standards declined, and nationalism (and I don't use the word in a derogatory sense) was on the rise again.
Brexit is one facet of this.
But the internationalists don't disappear, just because Brexit's happened. And given that group skews younger, and we're likely heading into a recession, they're likely to be in the ascendant for at least some of the next decade. Which is why a sensible government needs to remember to co-opt at least some of the internationalists rather than allowing the UK to whipsaw in the opposite direction at some point in the near future.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/11/uk-post-brexit-trade-at-risk-as-wto-top-court-shuts-down
Still, who needs the WTO...0 -
With respect, that’s somewhat hyperbolic. The courts proved able to constrain his pushing of constitutional norms this autumn. And the Tories are a long way from controlling the Lords.Foxy said:
There will be no magnanimity from PM Johnson, and certainly nothing from Cummings, who will achieve his objective of bringing down the institutions of the British Constitution. Britain Trump will not have courts nor congress to restrain his blunders.Jonathan said:
Boris and the Tories cannot expect any support or goodwill following their divisive rhetoric and actions..felix said:
Whatever happens there'll be plenty of sore losers to provide equally sickening balance whoever wins.Jonathan said:
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.Foxy said:
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.SouthamObserver said:
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!Foxy said:
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.
1 -
2
-
Well, I'm in LA and about to go to bed.CorrectHorseBattery said:Can we all be pleasant today whatever the result
I'm a bit concerned that election night runs from 2pm to about 9pm, but I'm sure my wife will cope 0 -
That is yet to be determined today.IanB2 said:
He’ll have more power and influence over our lives than Corbyn, of course it is right to focus on his character,Casino_Royale said:
Yet another one-sided and partisan post by you.IanB2 said:
It is the character of the winner, sadly.Casino_Royale said:
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.peter_from_putney said:
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...Casino_Royale said:I can't sleep.
This has never happened to me before.
Still, I expect tomorrow will be the high spot of what historians will come to see as an ignominious term of office. I expect his reputation will be down there with Cameron by the time he is done.
Corbyn is off the scale and yet you continue to exercise your personal dislike of Johnson above everything else.
Shameful.
Voting starts now, and there are least 75% of them yet to be cast.0 -
. And looks worse later on. 
This discussion has been closed.