They’ve sat down and crunched this. I get the feeling that the final survation and the final YouGov mrp are now seen as the ‘big events’. 11 point lead should be healthy majority, shouldn’t it?
I got 23 on Betfair for Lib Dems between 5.00-9.99%, for the overall UK result I think. Pretty pleased that I had a good feeling about the value in those odds, even if it doesn't actually happen.
They’ve sat down and crunched this. I get the feeling that the final survation and the final YouGov mrp are now seen as the ‘big events’. 11 point lead should be healthy majority, shouldn’t it?
It depends how many votes are wasted in safe seats, for both parties.
In 2017 the day before the election the central case was for a 60 seat Cons majority and the odds on a Cons maj were 2/9.
Sure, but so much has changed.
There were plenty of signals last time that Labour were doing better, from the odd poll showing Labour AHEAD, to plenty of polls showing Labour just behind (eg Survation), to the leadership figures showing Corbyn surging, to the anecdotal evidence of Corbymania, which was real and a thing. O Jeremy Corbyn....
This time, no polls show Labour ahead, no polls show Labour just behind, the leadership figures all show Corbyn still lagging badly, and there is zero anecdotal evidence for Corbymania, if anything it it is the opposite: evidence that Corbyn is toxic.
The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?
I think what this Survation shows again is Remainers are switching to Labour. The question is by how much.
The tragedy for them is that Corbyn has always been a Eurosceptic. It's bad luck for Remainers that just when they needed an opposition leader to be emphatically pro-EU they got Jezza.
I don't know if you saw my anecdata from earlier - but from my experience and discussions this feels about right.
E.G. I spoke to someone in Wythenshawe who told me that the Labour vote is cratering...especially on the council estates.
Wythenshawe? Jesus wept.
Sounds about right. In Wythenshawe and Sale East 20 years ago Wythenshawe was red and Sale East was blue. Now I'd say there's no real split. Wythenshawe has become much less Labour, but Sale East much more so.
I'd still say that overall there's no chance of Con getting anywhere near a victory here though! If Lab were to lose Wythenshawe they'd be looking at sub-100 seats. Not going to happen today.
Only two polling companies, I think, have a Tory lead now which is greater than the one they recorded at the beginning of the campaign; BMG (up 1) and Survation (up 3). Nice to see Survation continuing to buck the trend a little.
The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?
At these levels tactical voting won't do much, maybe reduce the Conservative seats by 5 max which I already take into account.
Only two polling companies, I think, have a Tory lead now which is greater than the one they recorded at the beginning of the campaign; BMG (up 1) and Survation (up 3). Nice to see Survation continuing to buck the trend a little.
WillS.
Its really just the same. Its ~10%. Tories have squeezed Brexit, Labour have squeezed Lib Dems.
If she survives the election, I have a feeling Swinson would make a decent leader of the Lib Dems. She made mistakes but those were largely due to inexperience I think. Different politics but she reminds me a bit of Margaret Thatcher. And objectively she would make a better prime minister than either Johnson or Corbyn. And by the way I am not voting for her.
To be fair to Swinson the Lib Dems don't do well when there is clear blue / red water between the two major parties. They also need a period when the Tories have been in power for a long time as their success of taking Labour seats has historically been minimal.
Count no chickens, friend. Remember how much we were panicking not 24 hours ago. And indeed how content we were feeling 24 hours before that. Who knows what the next 24 hours will bring. I have never felt as physically sick at an exit poll as in 2017. I had thought Corbynism would be banished back to the mad place it came from. I'm in no mood for tallying poultry.
Have my partner's lad coming over to do an all nighter for the election. He has started 'A' Level politics this year. If we were to try to go and watch the local count, would we be allowed in?
To round off, on UNS Survation would give 44 Tory gains from Labour and not a single Tory loss to the LDs
And not even you believe that 😉.
“ Final Call‘. Feels like pundits on grand national day, and with no more exact science if they are this far apart. OGH said earlier lot of nervousness around polling companies with the final call. Why? We don’t expect them to get it right. If one of them flukes it they may dine out on gold standard status for a while, but lose the next game badly they are back where they are now.
Count no chickens, friend. Remember how much we were panicking not 24 hours ago. And indeed how content we were feeling 24 hours before that. Who knows what the next 24 hours will bring. I have never felt as physically sick at an exit poll as in 2017. I had thought Corbynism would be banished back to the mad place it came from. I'm in no mood for tallying poultry.
I was literally in Rome enjoying a posho rooftop party for the 2017 election. There were half naked dancers and the like. Then the exit poll came in and I felt shocked for about 10 minutes, then I went back to the Trentodoc wine and foie gras bruschetta
The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?
At these levels tactical voting won't do much, maybe reduce the Conservative seats by 5 max which I already take into account.
But anyone assuming this election is in the bag for the Tories obviously didn't live through 2015, 2016 Ref, 2016 Trump, 2017, etc etc....
Survation forecast 2017 (and 2015), Trafalgar Group had Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Opinium and ICM had Leave ahead in 2016, not a single pollster now has Corbyn anywhere near a majority or even most seats.
Survation now puts the Tories nearer a majority of 100 than another hung parliament
The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?
Because its a myth? Its mentioned far much more than it deserves.
Count no chickens, friend. Remember how much we were panicking not 24 hours ago. And indeed how content we were feeling 24 hours before that. Who knows what the next 24 hours will bring. I have never felt as physically sick at an exit poll as in 2017. I had thought Corbynism would be banished back to the mad place it came from. I'm in no mood for tallying poultry.
I was literally in Rome enjoying a posho rooftop party for the 2017 election. There were half naked dancers and the like. Then the exit poll came in and I felt shocked for about 10 minutes, then I went back to the Trentodoc wine and foie gras bruschetta
Strange days. It was like a Fellini film.
And there were people starting to think you weren't Sean T.....
Have my partner's lad coming over to do an all nighter for the election. He has started 'A' Level politics this year. If we were to try to go and watch the local count, would we be allowed in?
The gallery maybe, you need a ticket for the main count
The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?
Because its a myth? Its mentioned far much more than it deserves.
Tactical voting clearly exists, or the LDs would have exactly one seat in Scotland.
Indeed, the story of Scotland in the 1979 to 1997 period is of most seats coalescing around a single non-Tory candidate.
Have my partner's lad coming over to do an all nighter for the election. He has started 'A' Level politics this year. If we were to try to go and watch the local count, would we be allowed in?
The gallery maybe, you need a ticket for the main count
If the Tories don't win this would surely be the greatest polling disaster EVER???
Can anyone think of a worse result?
At least in 2017 some pollsters were close to the voting shares.
Polling companies amazingly seem to be able to brush off getting things terribly wrong, reboot with a new improved model and a few years later we are all still here believing them....oh that will set me off again.
But anyone assuming this election is in the bag for the Tories obviously didn't live through 2015, 2016 Ref, 2016 Trump, 2017, etc etc....
Survation forecast 2017 (and 2015), Trafalgar Group had Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Opinium and ICM had Leave ahead in 2016, not a single pollster now has Corbyn anywhere near a majority or even most seats.
Survation now puts the Tories nearer a majority of 100 than another hung parliament
But the MRP was the gold standard last time around, and by the MRP we are within MOE of HP.
I am not comfortable. Far from it. But at least I am feeling less despondent than I was last night.
The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?
Because its a myth? Its mentioned far much more than it deserves.
Tactical voting clearly exists, or the LDs would have exactly one seat in Scotland.
Indeed, the story of Scotland in the 1979 to 1997 period is of most seats coalescing around a single non-Tory candidate.
I don't think tactical voting is anywhere near as big a deal as people make out.
I do think the Lib Dems are good at putting their effort into targetting a few seats. That's not the same thing.
But anyone assuming this election is in the bag for the Tories obviously didn't live through 2015, 2016 Ref, 2016 Trump, 2017, etc etc....
Survation forecast 2017 (and 2015), Trafalgar Group had Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Opinium and ICM had Leave ahead in 2016, not a single pollster now has Corbyn anywhere near a majority or even most seats.
Survation now puts the Tories nearer a majority of 100 than another hung parliament
But the MRP was the gold standard last time around, and by the MRP we are within MOE of HP.
I am not comfortable. Far from it. But at least I am feeling less despondent than I was last night.
The only thing was that the first MRP was more accurate than the last one. It is really because basically all the other pollsters were shit that MRP got god like status.
We have a system that works so incredibly well. Why risk it? Let’s innovate. Let’s have ballot papers with barcodes that facilitates electronic counting etc.
Survation I think you need to turn it off and on again.
No they dont. Labour is simply coalescong the Remain vote.
I don't disagree, but I think 9% is still too low. Jezza is still toxic to many and so I think they will get more than that....especially as in your Bath's of the world they will vote en-masse Lib Dem.
The danger is that says Labour 34%...they get 35-36% when the work shy students turn out and Tories under perform with Flat Cap Fred doesn't fancy it in the end and they get 42%...Eeeekkk...
And why isn't tactical mentioned more often, is it because the polling companies from 92 to today haven't a clue how to capture it?
Because its a myth? Its mentioned far much more than it deserves.
Tactical voting clearly exists, or the LDs would have exactly one seat in Scotland.
Indeed, the story of Scotland in the 1979 to 1997 period is of most seats coalescing around a single non-Tory candidate.
I don't think tactical voting is anywhere near as big a deal as people make out.
I do think the Lib Dems are good at putting their effort into targetting a few seats. That's not the same thing.
Fortunately we can use data to make a call on this. How different at a constituency level are list votes in Scotland and consituency votes? If - for some seats - they are significantly different, then that suggests there is tactical voting. People choose at the list level who they really support, and then choose tactically for someone with a chance of winning at the constituency level.
so what’s the recommended drink and snacks for tomorrow night?
Are you watching Sky for your full dose of John Bercow or something else?
If Sky, probably meths and lampreys.
Bercow will be in a foul mood tomorrow if this result happens.
I will take great delight in watching bercows face if it’s a Tory landslide
He'll also have the honour of being the first ex Speaker that doesn't get a sinecure in the House of Lords.
I think it would be a great mistake not to elevate him. The government should be magnanimous in victory.
Agree, if it was anyone else, but after the games he's played over the past three years with parliamentary procedure,the serious bullying allegations that were not properly investigated & his blatant bias, No.
Comments
Good luck to all candidates, canvassers and activists of whatever hue ahead of the big day tomorrow, get some rest now, you will need it
Those Scottish numbers must be sensational
But anyone assuming this election is in the bag for the Tories obviously didn't live through 2015, 2016 Ref, 2016 Trump, 2017, etc etc....
There were plenty of signals last time that Labour were doing better, from the odd poll showing Labour AHEAD, to plenty of polls showing Labour just behind (eg Survation), to the leadership figures showing Corbyn surging, to the anecdotal evidence of Corbymania, which was real and a thing. O Jeremy Corbyn....
This time, no polls show Labour ahead, no polls show Labour just behind, the leadership figures all show Corbyn still lagging badly, and there is zero anecdotal evidence for Corbymania, if anything it it is the opposite: evidence that Corbyn is toxic.
The Tories are gonna win
WillS
I'd still say that overall there's no chance of Con getting anywhere near a victory here though! If Lab were to lose Wythenshawe they'd be looking at sub-100 seats. Not going to happen today.
Opinium down by 3
Comres down by 3
LD are getting hit hard by voters going Labour.
WillS.
They also need a period when the Tories have been in power for a long time as their success of taking Labour seats has historically been minimal.
I have never felt as physically sick at an exit poll as in 2017. I had thought Corbynism would be banished back to the mad place it came from. I'm in no mood for tallying poultry.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
https://imgur.com/w9FCvcr
“ Final Call‘. Feels like pundits on grand national day, and with no more exact science if they are this far apart.
OGH said earlier lot of nervousness around polling companies with the final call. Why? We don’t expect them to get it right. If one of them flukes it they may dine out on gold standard status for a while, but lose the next game badly they are back where they are now.
Strange days. It was like a Fellini film.
Con 43.1 (+0.1)
Lab 33.8 (+0.9)
LD 11.9 (-0.6)
BXP 3.1 (NC)
Con lead 9.3 (-0.8)
Comparisons with ELBOW week-ending Sunday 8th.
Survation now puts the Tories nearer a majority of 100 than another hung parliament
Can anyone think of a worse result?
At least in 2017 some pollsters were close to the voting shares.
And now for my forecast.
Is that due to older ones falling out?
If its 325 do we go to a penalty shootout?
GN all remember LAB/SNP can still form a majority government. We must vote CON to beat the enemy within!
See you later today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkH2r-sNjQs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3_0x6oaDmI
Indeed, the story of Scotland in the 1979 to 1997 period is of most seats coalescing around a single non-Tory candidate.
I am not comfortable. Far from it. But at least I am feeling less despondent than I was last night.
I do think the Lib Dems are good at putting their effort into targetting a few seats. That's not the same thing.
https://unherd.com/2019/12/how-labour-betrayed-their-supporters/
These are the Tory leads for the last three days, and the average at the end.
[ 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10.8 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. ] 9.9
[ 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10.8 12. 12. 13. ] 9.4
[ 5. 6. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10.8 12. 12. ] 9.3
Labour in theory cant get above their 2017 result in terms of vote share.
But that small share for Farage can still ruin everything and another Hung Parliament may be the result.
An example of how Farage could screw the result:
Current National average:
CON 44
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 3
If the Brexit party stood in all seats it would be:
CON 41
LAB 34
LD 11
BRX 6
If the Brexit party withdrew completely:
CON 47
LAB 34
LD 11
So in Labour seats due to Farage the swing could be just 2.5%, a majority of around 14, just 7 MP's above the finish line.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=0
Get out there and vote CON!