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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polls – almost

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  • After LauraK. 's intervention yesterday I might vote Conservative just to remind myself what voting for a winner feels like.

    Incredible though it may seem, apparently thousands of folk do precisely that!
  • DavidL said:

    Was there an Ipsos Mori this morning?

    Supposedly, but it's a bit "After the Lord Mayor's show" now.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I've just seen rcs1000's forecast (at 2:06 on this thread) for a 100+ Tory Majority. He's no mug, so I'm going to take my Horlicks and get back to bed. I've already voted so there's nowt else I can do.

    I may be no mug, but I am far from always correct.
    I agree, but you've repeated your GE forecast several times now and you can't always be wrong either.
  • High youth turnout you heard it here first
  • So far all the photos I’ve seen are lots of young people. Any other anecdotes?
  • High youth turnout you heard it here first

    Incorrect ... on both counts!
  • So far all the photos I’ve seen are lots of young people. Any other anecdotes?


  • High youth turnout you heard it here first

    Incorrect ... on both counts!
    Not what I’m seeing and hearing
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited December 2019
    rcs1000:
    I predict the next election (i.e. 2024) will be won by a party that doesn't even exist today.

    For that to be the case within a 5 year time frame would require one of the two major parties to split and re-form ..... Hmm, I wonder which one?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,995



    After LauraK. 's intervention yesterday I might vote Conservative just to remind myself what voting for a winner feels like.

    Incredible though it may seem, apparently thousands of folk do precisely that!
    Rest assured I won't!
  • Any anecdotes from northern marginals
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Unfortunately batters they all look like eager leavers to me
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Urgh, it's foul out there. And I have been rewarded for finally finishing the election campaign by waking up with a stinking cold and hacking cough. Bloody germ-ridden voters....

    Lol, sympathies. Am expecting much the same after a day in the rain. A canvassers' trade union to oppose December elections would be nice.
    The country had no choice.
    FPtP lovers need to wake up to the fact the voters aren’t comfortable with two party politics anymore.
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174

    Gabs3 said:

    Truly horrific. The British Left are horrible. I am ashamed I ever counted myself among them.
    I think some of the British left are horrible - the lump that has seized control of Labour - I suspect the majority of the British Left are as appalled and repulsed by this as we are - I just wish they'd get their act together and regain control of their party. I hope the electorate give them sufficient incentive to do so.
    Even if the electorate give them a clear message at this GE I don't see how the moderates can regain control of Labour given Momentum's power grab. Last time they needed to purge the Loony Left it took almost 20 years and Kinnock and Blair.

    The worry is that Momentum will sit tight and wait for the next GE or the one after that, until the electorate get bored with Tory governments and "give the other lot a try".

    We really, really need an alternative centre-left party to rise up and fill the gap. Can the Lib Dems do that? I think their brand has been damaged to the point that a new party needs to be set up, and fast. Perhaps something will come of Ian Austin's mainstreamuk.org?
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,016
    eristdoof said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    I can't sleep.

    This has never happened to me before.

    Oh for pity's sake. You're going to win. You may not win bigly but you will win convincingly. Nothing has changed since the election was called. Boris has a bigger slice of a bigger slice. Boris is popular, at least amongst those voters willing to overlook his morals. Corbyn is voter repellent. Labour decided to wank itself stupid instead of fighting an election. Conservatives snogged Brexit Party to death. This thing was dead before it even started.

    Aaargh!

    :):):)



    There’s nowt so flaky as a Conservative, as we LibDems found to our surprise during the coalition.
    Your party knew that on 5th May 2010, but then trusted the tories during the following week, resulting in a poorly prepared coalition agreement.
    And they will end up doing 100 years of penance for it. Whereas if you launch an illegal war of international aggression you get forgiven within two years.
  • Con maj drifting; NOM being backed. 1.52 and 3.1 on Betfair (roughly 1/2 and 2/1 in old money, or 67% and 33%) respectively.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,016
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Good morning PB.

    So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?

    There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:

    1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.

    2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.

    3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
    Yep landslide talk is delusional.

    I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
    It bodes well for them in the next election, which I except will probably be a Labour win.
    I predict the next election (i.e. 2024) will be won by a party that doesn't even exist today.
    Fascism v Internationalist, business-friendly, left-liberals. I know which side I'm on.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Mango said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Good morning PB.

    So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?

    There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:

    1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.

    2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.

    3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
    Yep landslide talk is delusional.

    I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
    It bodes well for them in the next election, which I except will probably be a Labour win.
    I predict the next election (i.e. 2024) will be won by a party that doesn't even exist today.
    Fascism v Internationalist, business-friendly, left-liberals. I know which side I'm on.
    Yeah sadly. Last 4 years living in this democratic hell hole has made fascists out of us all.
  • egg said:

    Unfortunately batters they all look like eager leavers to me
    Judging from those rucksacks I should say they are about to leave just as soon as they finish voting.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437

    High youth turnout you heard it here first

    So far this morning, I've done telling at two stations, 10 miles apart.

    I've not seen any demographic difference between today and 2017, 2016 (in our case) and 2015. Anyone telling you different needs to learn the difference between data and anecdotes.
This discussion has been closed.