Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.
Whatever happens there'll be plenty of sore losers to provide equally sickening balance whoever wins.
Boris and the Tories cannot expect any support or goodwill following their divisive rhetoric and actions..
There will be no magnanimity from PM Johnson, and certainly nothing from Cummings, who will achieve his objective of bringing down the institutions of the British Constitution. Britain Trump will not have courts nor congress to restrain his blunders.
With respect, that’s somewhat hyperbolic. The courts proved able to constrain his pushing of constitutional norms this autumn. And the Tories are a long way from controlling the Lords.
My prediction is Con 360, Lib Dem 18, SNP 40, Northern Ireland 18, Others 7 (including the East Devon Independent) Labour 207 or thereabouts.
Your forecast of 18 Northern Irish seats is pretty bold. How confident are you we won't see Ulster breaking out and getting north of 20?
That's a good point RCS
This country needs more NI MPs.
if we had 650 of them they could all refuse to sit together like they do back home and then there would be nobody in government and the country would be a better place.
One of the more shocking stats of this election is that there are 100 000 people waiting for hospital treatment in NI for more than a year. Pretty astonishing in a place with only 1 800 000 people. It puts the failures of the English and Welsh NHS into perspective.
that's probably saving lives
when my dad went in to his local hospital in NI some years back the bastards nearly killed him ( lack of basic care, norovirus, etc ) . He only recovered when he got back out !
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
You're being a total partisan twat this morning.
Beneath you.
I am simply reflecting on what has been thrown at me here. I can’t recall ever advocating people vote for any single party.
I made a comment about the ugliness of the campaign. I threw nothing at you. But, you took it as a partisan dig, and responded in kind.
You are a pointless drone.
If tonight’s winners are going to be so abusive, we are in for an unpleasant time, for sure.
The battle lines in the Republic of Ireland, between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, are still drawn from acceptance or not of the settlement reached with Britain over Home Rule.
It is undoubtedly better for the health of the UK political system that the referendum is enacted. But I think it is naive to think the fissure in UK political life will simply heal itself because we've left.
I would have to disagree with the equivalence of Ireland and the EU.
Regardless, any fissure will be an internal party management issue for Labour rather than a collective one for the country as a whole.
I said at the start of this election that the losing party (and a HP would be the Tories losing) would face a challenging time surviving in their current form.
The Tories will never be a party of rejoin.
Labour on the other hand is going to have to alienate a huge block of its potential future vote by positioning itself to either rejoin or not.
I see this as a rather different "battle". Rather than seeing it as about UK vs EU, I think it is a deeper one between nationalists and internationalists.
For the period from 1970 to 2008 (or so), internationalism was on the up. Institutions like the WTO, the EU, etc, took more and more power from national governments. People got more internationally mobile. The importance of the nation state was diminished.
While there were positive consequences of this, there were also negative ones. In particular, democratic accountability suffered. (Essentially, community control declined. This is seen in immigration and in many other areas.)
With the GFC, faith in internationalism to keep raising living standards declined, and nationalism (and I don't use the word in a derogatory sense) was on the rise again.
Brexit is one facet of this.
But the internationalists don't disappear, just because Brexit's happened. And given that group skews younger, and we're likely heading into a recession, they're likely to be in the ascendant for at least some of the next decade. Which is why a sensible government needs to remember to co-opt at least some of the internationalists rather than allowing the UK to whipsaw in the opposite direction at some point in the near future.
7 hours ago the WTO resolutions panel became inquorate and can no longer resolve trade disputes.
The battle lines in the Republic of Ireland, between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, are still drawn from acceptance or not of the settlement reached with Britain over Home Rule.
It is undoubtedly better for the health of the UK political system that the referendum is enacted. But I think it is naive to think the fissure in UK political life will simply heal itself because we've left.
I would have to disagree with the equivalence of Ireland and the EU.
Regardless, any fissure will be an internal party management issue for Labour rather than a collective one for the country as a whole.
I said at the start of this election that the losing party (and a HP would be the Tories losing) would face a challenging time surviving in their current form.
The Tories will never be a party of rejoin.
Labour on the other hand is going to have to alienate a huge block of its potential future vote by positioning itself to either rejoin or not.
I see this as a rather different "battle". Rather than seeing it as about UK vs EU, I think it is a deeper one between nationalists and internationalists.
For the period from 1970 to 2008 (or so), internationalism was on the up. Institutions like the WTO, the EU, etc, took more and more power from national governments. People got more internationally mobile. The importance of the nation state was diminished.
While there were positive consequences of this, there were also negative ones. In particular, democratic accountability suffered. (Essentially, community control declined. This is seen in immigration and in many other areas.)
With the GFC, faith in internationalism to keep raising living standards declined, and nationalism (and I don't use the word in a derogatory sense) was on the rise again.
Brexit is one facet of this.
But the internationalists don't disappear, just because Brexit's happened. And given that group skews younger, and we're likely heading into a recession, they're likely to be in the ascendant for at least some of the next decade. Which is why a sensible government needs to remember to co-opt at least some of the internationalists rather than allowing the UK to whipsaw in the opposite direction at some point in the near future.
Good post, and I don’t even think it’s even that ideological.
We’re collectively struggling with the economic eclipse of the West, and rapid demographic change.
It was all laid bare by the credit crunch and its aftermath, as well as policy decisions taken in the noughties that then came home to roost.
Easy to forget Corbyn comfortably preceded Brexit, and the UKIP surge even before that.
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
You're being a total partisan twat this morning.
Beneath you.
I am simply reflecting on what has been thrown at me here. I can’t recall ever advocating people vote for any single party.
I made a comment about the ugliness of the campaign. I threw nothing at you. But, you took it as a partisan dig, and responded in kind.
You are a pointless drone.
If tonight’s winners are going to be so abusive, we are in for an unpleasant time, for sure.
I made a magnanimous comment. Jonathan decided to go full Alastair Campbell over it.
The final lead will be around 8%. There will be a last minute Labour uptick, as in 2017.
It won’t be enough to stop the Tories knocking a few bricks out of the red wall, but won’t be a total collapse.
We’re going to see some seats we thought were gonners stay stubbornly Labour, and some that looked comfortable for Labour swinging massively away from them.
Swinson will hold her seat by the tiniest of margins. Overall the LDs will have a shocking night.
There’ll be a couple of labour gains from the Tories. Maybe Putney and IDS.
Most entertaining interview of the night will go to Anna Soubry.
BXP will come shockingly close in Bansley Central.
The final result: Conservative majority of 10-24. Enough to get Brexit done but a challenge to govern for the full five years.
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
It has a lot to do with Corbyn. He is loathed so much , its visceral, BUT "GET BREXIT DONE" is the message that has won through.
What will the Tories vote share be like when Brexit is still not 'Done' in a years time.
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
You're being a total partisan twat this morning.
Beneath you.
I am simply reflecting on what has been thrown at me here. I can’t recall ever advocating people vote for any single party.
I made a comment about the ugliness of the campaign. I threw nothing at you. But, you took it as a partisan dig, and responded in kind.
You are a pointless drone.
If tonight’s winners are going to be so abusive, we are in for an unpleasant time, for sure.
I made a magnanimous comment. Jonathan decided to go full Alastair Campbell over it.
Blame him. It takes two to tango.
Readers can peruse your last few posts and decide for themselves who is in a foul mood.
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
You're being a total partisan twat this morning.
Beneath you.
I am simply reflecting on what has been thrown at me here. I can’t recall ever advocating people vote for any single party.
I made a comment about the ugliness of the campaign. I threw nothing at you. But, you took it as a partisan dig, and responded in kind.
You are a pointless drone.
If tonight’s winners are going to be so abusive, we are in for an unpleasant time, for sure.
I made a magnanimous comment. Jonathan decided to go full Alastair Campbell over it.
Blame him. It takes two to tango.
Readers can peruse your last few posts and decide for themselves who is in a foul mood.
You can’t talk. You insulted me yesterday and my work.
What an election. One where the 'best' result is an incompetent egotist unfit to be in Cabinet remains PM. And yet the alternative is an order of magnitude worse.
Still, fingers crossed for a strong Conservative majority, and Boris Johnson losing his seat.
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
I agree. Culture wars are very particularly ugly, and Brexit has debased our politics. At least it is not a proper civil war.
I have placed my final bets. I think 360+ Con, so am green above that line, I think low turnout. I am bearish on LD seats, though there will be some gains.
The collapse of the SLAB vote to the SNP should see quite a few SNP gains. I think this may well be the last UK election that Scotland is part of.
There is going to be a lot of messing around with the constitution over the coming few years designed to increase the power of the executive, decrease scrutiny of its actions, cement Tory electoral dominance and prevent Scottish independence and Irish reunification. I can only see the UK becoming an angrier, more divided country. It’s not going to be pleasant. And that’s before you factor in the economic consequences of Brexit. I Don’t think we’ll need to worry too much about immigration!
Refusing a further Sindyref will only foster that sense of grievance with an un-listening London. Paradoxically this will ensure that the eventual second Sindyref is lost.
We will get a bullshit tomorrow from Boris, repeated by PB Tories about how it’s now time to come together. It will be nauseating and hypocritical in the extreme.
Whatever happens there'll be plenty of sore losers to provide equally sickening balance whoever wins.
Boris and the Tories cannot expect any support or goodwill following their divisive rhetoric and actions..
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
You're being a total partisan twat this morning.
Beneath you.
I am simply reflecting on what has been thrown at me here. I can’t recall ever advocating people vote for any single party.
I made a comment about the ugliness of the campaign. I threw nothing at you. But, you took it as a partisan dig, and responded in kind.
You are a pointless drone.
If tonight’s winners are going to be so abusive, we are in for an unpleasant time, for sure.
I made a magnanimous comment. Jonathan decided to go full Alastair Campbell over it.
Blame him. It takes two to tango.
You said it was a divisive campaign.
I said it was not nice to get a lot of abuse for not voting Tory.
So far in response you called me a twat, partisan and a drone.
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
You're being a total partisan twat this morning.
Beneath you.
I am simply reflecting on what has been thrown at me here. I can’t recall ever advocating people vote for any single party.
I made a comment about the ugliness of the campaign. I threw nothing at you. But, you took it as a partisan dig, and responded in kind.
You are a pointless drone.
If tonight’s winners are going to be so abusive, we are in for an unpleasant time, for sure.
I made a magnanimous comment. Jonathan decided to go full Alastair Campbell over it.
Blame him. It takes two to tango.
You said it was a divisive campaign.
I said it was not nice to get a lot of abuse for not voting Tory.
So far in response you called me a twat, partisan and a drone.
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
You're being a total partisan twat this morning.
Beneath you.
I am simply reflecting on what has been thrown at me here. I can’t recall ever advocating people vote for any single party.
I made a comment about the ugliness of the campaign. I threw nothing at you. But, you took it as a partisan dig, and responded in kind.
You are a pointless drone.
If tonight’s winners are going to be so abusive, we are in for an unpleasant time, for sure.
I made a magnanimous comment. Jonathan decided to go full Alastair Campbell over it.
Blame him. It takes two to tango.
Readers can peruse your last few posts and decide for themselves who is in a foul mood.
You can’t talk. You insulted me yesterday and my work.
An accusation you then failed to clarify.
By suggesting you should work for HS2? It’s called a joke.
Hardly on the same scale as the abuse and unpleasantness littering your posts this morning, is it?
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
It has a lot to do with Corbyn. He is loathed so much , its visceral, BUT "GET BREXIT DONE" is the message that has won through.
What will the Tories vote share be like when Brexit is still not 'Done' in a years time.
WE will have to see. its going to be ugly whatever happens.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Eve Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
You're being a total partisan twat this morning.
Beneath you.
I am simply reflecting on what has been thrown at me here. I can’t recall ever advocating people vote for any single party.
I made a comment about the ugliness of the campaign. I threw nothing at you. But, you took it as a partisan dig, and responded in kind.
You are a pointless drone.
If tonight’s winners are going to be so abusive, we are in for an unpleasant time, for sure.
I made a magnanimous comment. Jonathan decided to go full Alastair Campbell over it.
Blame him. It takes two to tango.
You said it was a divisive campaign.
I said it was not nice to get a lot of abuse for not voting Tory.
So far in response you called me a twat, partisan and a drone.
I still expect a narrow Conservative win but I'm by no means sure.
I'm fairly confident of my betting position though. When Labour languished at 25% in the polls I got on them at good odds for 200+ seats. We shall see!
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
It has a lot to do with Corbyn. He is loathed so much , its visceral, BUT "GET BREXIT DONE" is the message that has won through.
What will the Tories vote share be like when Brexit is still not 'Done' in a years time.
It doesn't matter if the next election is in 2024.
Brisk voting in my corner of solid Labour Remainia in SE London. Queue of about ten people at 7am and a steady flow walking down to the polling station as I walked back to the station. Only contributing to the inefficiency of Labour's vote most likely, but still nice to see. Voting always gives me such a good feeling, we are very lucky to live in a democracy and should cherish the norms of civilised, informed debate and free access to the ballot box that make it that way. Have a great day everybody.
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
You're being a total partisan twat this morning.
Beneath you.
I am simply reflecting on what has been thrown at me here. I can’t recall ever advocating people vote for any single party.
I made a comment about the ugliness of the campaign. I threw nothing at you. But, you took it as a partisan dig, and responded in kind.
You are a pointless drone.
If tonight’s winners are going to be so abusive, we are in for an unpleasant time, for sure.
I made a magnanimous comment. Jonathan decided to go full Alastair Campbell over it.
Blame him. It takes two to tango.
You said it was a divisive campaign.
I said it was not nice to get a lot of abuse for not voting Tory.
So far in response you called me a twat, partisan and a drone.
Doesn’t feel like a Tango.
It takes two to tango but only one to w*nk.
youre doing it wrong
Don't knock masturbation, it's sex with someone you love.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Eve Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
The vote shares in marginals from Deltapoll last night were significant. It true, it’ll be a strong majority today for Boris.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
If my Facebook feed is anything to go by, there are going to be some angry angry young people tomorrow.
One factor I am interested in is how big of an age divide we have again. It can't be sustainable to have such a big difference between young and old, those of working age and those retired.
Brisk voting in my corner of solid Labour Remainia in SE London. Queue of about ten people at 7am and a steady flow walking down to the polling station as I walked back to the station. Only contributing to the inefficiency of Labour's vote most likely, but still nice to see. Voting always gives me such a good feeling, we are very lucky to live in a democracy and should cherish the norms of civilised, informed debate and free access to the ballot box that make it that way. Have a great day everybody.
The only polling station I've ever had to queue for was Sheffield Central. I think urban ones are always busier
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Eve Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
For me, a crushing of Corbyn (sub 200 seats) would be the best possible result, but would the brothers turn inward or would the sensible Labourites like Jonathan be able to take back the Party>?
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
Yep landslide talk is delusional.
I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
What will the Tories vote share be like when Brexit is still not 'Done' in a years time.
As long as it is 'done' by the next GE it won't matter. And for leavers if the answer to the question 'Have we left?' is 'Yes' then the trade agreement is going to be of little importance to them.
The real question is what will Labour's vote share be when they come out for rejoining at the next GE...or indeed their vote share if they don't!
If my Facebook feed is anything to go by, there are going to be some angry angry young people tomorrow.
One factor I am interested in is how big of an age divide we have again. It can't be sustainable to have such a big difference between young and old, those of working age and those retired.
The old will eventually depart the scene - and somewhat faster than previously thought thanks to the recent decline in longevity projections which of course has nothing to do with austerity. At that point the question is whether my generation become miserable right wing gits to quite the same degree. I am expecting not. If anything I have become more left wing as I have got older, and I don't think I am alone in that.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
Yep landslide talk is delusional.
I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
They can be as motivated and as loud as they like, just look at the antisemetic stuff... but if the voters are not listening, its just hot air. Just ask Jonathan about his canvassing on the door.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
Yep landslide talk is delusional.
I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
It bodes well for them in the next election, which I except will probably be a Labour win.
If my Facebook feed is anything to go by, there are going to be some angry angry young people tomorrow.
One factor I am interested in is how big of an age divide we have again. It can't be sustainable to have such a big difference between young and old, those of working age and those retired.
If anything I have become more left wing as I have got older, and I don't think I am alone in that.
You're not. I have too.
The generation which benefitted from unprecedented and never-to-be-repeated house price rises have a good (frankly selfish) reason for being tory. The rest of us don't.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
I think it will be a landslide, with low turnout of demotivated youngsters and traditional Labour voters contributing to massive Labour losses in Wales, Scotland, North and West Midlands. There will be a different story in Southern Remania but not enough to compensate. In Scotland the SNP may well have over 50 seats again.
I am comfortable with my betting position, but the country is going down a Trumpian plughole.
If my Facebook feed is anything to go by, there are going to be some angry angry young people tomorrow.
One factor I am interested in is how big of an age divide we have again. It can't be sustainable to have such a big difference between young and old, those of working age and those retired.
There's always been a big age gap between voters. For instance in 1974 the Tories came third behind the Liberals with the youngest voters.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
Yep landslide talk is delusional.
I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
It bodes well for them in the next election, which I except will probably be a Labour win.
I predict the next election (i.e. 2024) will be won by a party that doesn't even exist today.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
Yep landslide talk is delusional.
I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
It bodes well for them in the next election, which I except will probably be a Labour win.
I predict the next election (i.e. 2024) will be won by a party that doesn't even exist today.
Brisk voting in my corner of solid Labour Remainia in SE London. Queue of about ten people at 7am and a steady flow walking down to the polling station as I walked back to the station. Only contributing to the inefficiency of Labour's vote most likely, but still nice to see. Voting always gives me such a good feeling, we are very lucky to live in a democracy and should cherish the norms of civilised, informed debate and free access to the ballot box that make it that way. Have a great day everybody.
The only polling station I've ever had to queue for was Sheffield Central. I think urban ones are always busier
Although I technically live on the very edge of the London built-up area as defined by Ordnance Survey, I think my estate is very much more surburbia. Had to queue for five minutes, though this may be influenced by SWR still running a revised timetable even though today is not a strike day.
If my Facebook feed is anything to go by, there are going to be some angry angry young people tomorrow.
One factor I am interested in is how big of an age divide we have again. It can't be sustainable to have such a big difference between young and old, those of working age and those retired.
If anything I have become more left wing as I have got older, and I don't think I am alone in that.
You're not. I have too.
The generation which benefitted from unprecedented and never-to-be-repeated house price rises have a good (frankly selfish) reason for being tory. The rest of us don't.
The best people get more left-wing as they get older. The older they get the more injustice they see and the more determined they are to do something about it. I am inspired by some of the older people I've met, who are engaging in a range of big political issues whilst middle aged farts like me whinge about the pressures of daily life.
Do the words ComRes, ComRes, ComRes keep going through your mind? Those pollsters who were wrong in 2017 and are wrong again today will find themselves in big trouble. On the other hand ...
Yes. There's something particularly ugly about this election campaign that I really don't like.
Yes. It has been different. Being told repeatedly how foolish, shameful or In some cases how downright evil you are for not following the true blue path has been a new development.
It has a lot to do with Corbyn. He is loathed so much , its visceral, BUT "GET BREXIT DONE" is the message that has won through.
What will the Tories vote share be like when Brexit is still not 'Done' in a years time.
WE will have to see. its going to be ugly whatever happens.
I fear you are correct. Sadly I get the impression that Johnson and Co are are unlikely to be gracious to their opponents, whether in defeat or victory.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
Yep landslide talk is delusional.
I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
They can be as motivated and as loud as they like, just look at the antisemetic stuff... but if the voters are not listening, its just hot air. Just ask Jonathan about his canvassing on the door.
I don't think there's a lot of point having a 'oh yes it will' 'oh no it won't' ding-dong on here today although it is pantomime season.
I am confident it won't be a landslide and I, too, have been 'on the doorstep' as well as on social media (dismiss at your peril - it's where under 30's live nowadays).
It won't be a landslide but I wish you all a good day. I'm off to the cinema!!!! And then tomorrow morning I fly from these shores for a break.
Some anecdota - my friend who worked in the People's Vote campaign says Grieve has made up a lot of ground, but probably still won't quite make it - and that Raab has had it ; and my Green associate thinks they'll run Labour surprisingly close in Bristol West rather than anywhere else, but again with the larger party making it.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
Yep landslide talk is delusional.
I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
It bodes well for them in the next election, which I except will probably be a Labour win.
I predict the next election (i.e. 2024) will be won by a party that doesn't even exist today.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
Yep landslide talk is delusional.
I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
They can be as motivated and as loud as they like, just look at the antisemetic stuff... but if the voters are not listening, its just hot air. Just ask Jonathan about his canvassing on the door.
I don't think there's a lot of point having a 'oh yes it will' 'oh no it won't' ding-dong on here today although it is pantomime season.
I am confident it won't be a landslide and I, too, have been 'on the doorstep' as well as on social media (dismiss at your peril - it's where under 30's live nowadays).
It won't be a landslide but I wish you all a good day. I'm off to the cinema!!!! And then tomorrow morning I fly from these shores for a break.
My advice to under 30s would be to get off social media and try doing other things.
If my Facebook feed is anything to go by, there are going to be some angry angry young people tomorrow.
One factor I am interested in is how big of an age divide we have again. It can't be sustainable to have such a big difference between young and old, those of working age and those retired.
If anything I have become more left wing as I have got older, and I don't think I am alone in that.
You're not. I have too.
The generation which benefitted from unprecedented and never-to-be-repeated house price rises have a good (frankly selfish) reason for being tory. The rest of us don't.
The best people get more left-wing as they get older. The older they get the more injustice they see and the more determined they are to do something about it. I am inspired by some of the older people I've met, who are engaging in a range of big political issues whilst middle aged farts like me whinge about the pressures of daily life.
I totally agree.
My heart has softened the older I've got and the more I've become aware of the injustices around me.
Don't get me started on the tories' austerity programme and universal credit. My friends are fed up with me going into rant mode about it!!!
Brisk voting in my corner of solid Labour Remainia in SE London. Queue of about ten people at 7am and a steady flow walking down to the polling station as I walked back to the station. Only contributing to the inefficiency of Labour's vote most likely, but still nice to see. Voting always gives me such a good feeling, we are very lucky to live in a democracy and should cherish the norms of civilised, informed debate and free access to the ballot box that make it that way. Have a great day everybody.
It's odd how the Lib Dems never cut through in seats like yours where I presume there is no Tory threat. One problem LD have is they have very little appeal to deprived areas, it's a very middle class electorate.
I was thinking that, while on pb we joked about who the left would blame this time if they got crushed. AS has played as a big media issue in this campaign and the last two years. The backlash really could be against Jews if it’s thought that they’ve robbed the Corbynites of power.
If my Facebook feed is anything to go by, there are going to be some angry angry young people tomorrow.
One factor I am interested in is how big of an age divide we have again. It can't be sustainable to have such a big difference between young and old, those of working age and those retired.
The old will eventually depart the scene - and somewhat faster than previously thought thanks to the recent decline in longevity projections which of course has nothing to do with austerity. At that point the question is whether my generation become miserable right wing gits to quite the same degree. I am expecting not. If anything I have become more left wing as I have got older, and I don't think I am alone in that.
Im don't plan to go anywhere yet; am looking forward to seeing my older grandchildren's contemporaries (current around 30) in power. Sure that will be different. Although we were going to Ban The Bomb, as I recall.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
Yep landslide talk is delusional.
I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
It bodes well for them in the next election, which I except will probably be a Labour win.
I predict the next election (i.e. 2024) will be won by a party that doesn't even exist today.
I wonder how the campaign would have gone if the Tories had been campaigning strongly for remain and Labour had campaigned to leave. A lot of the rhetoric (at least on here) has been about how bad the Tories are and the need for change. I would have loved to see the tone of the comments from the left and right if the Brexit positions were reversed 😂
Some anecdota - my friend who worked in the People's Vote campaign says Grieve has made up a lot of ground, but probably still won't quite make it - and that Raab has had it ; and my Green associate thinks they'll run Labour surprisingly close in Bristol West rather than anywhere else, but again with the larger party making it.
Yep I think Raab has had it. Guildford 'should' go LD, Wimbledon too. Woking will be close too. I'm not convinced Michael Gove is entirely safe either.
If that is correct the LDs will be on one seat, O&S, in Scotland.
If YouGov is correct it will be four.
Aren't the SNP usually flattered by opinion polling? A chance they won't do quite as well as 2017, and the Tories do a bit better....which would be fun.
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Ele Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
There are a few factors that convince me it won’t be a landslide:
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
Yep landslide talk is delusional.
I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
It bodes well for them in the next election, which I except will probably be a Labour win.
I predict the next election (i.e. 2024) will be won by a party that doesn't even exist today.
If my Facebook feed is anything to go by, there are going to be some angry angry young people tomorrow.
One factor I am interested in is how big of an age divide we have again. It can't be sustainable to have such a big difference between young and old, those of working age and those retired.
The old will eventually depart the scene - and somewhat faster than previously thought thanks to the recent decline in longevity projections which of course has nothing to do with austerity. At that point the question is whether my generation become miserable right wing gits to quite the same degree. I am expecting not. If anything I have become more left wing as I have got older, and I don't think I am alone in that.
Im don't plan to go anywhere yet; am looking forward to seeing my older grandchildren's contemporaries (current around 30) in power. Sure that will be different. Although we were going to Ban The Bomb, as I recall.
By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.
I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.
It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...
I was thinking that, while on pb we joked about who the left would blame this time if they got crushed. AS has played as a big media issue in this campaign and the last two years. The backlash really could be against Jews if it’s thought that they’ve robbed the Corbynites of power.
If my Facebook feed is anything to go by, there are going to be some angry angry young people tomorrow.
One factor I am interested in is how big of an age divide we have again. It can't be sustainable to have such a big difference between young and old, those of working age and those retired.
If anything I have become more left wing as I have got older, and I don't think I am alone in that.
You're not. I have too.
The generation which benefitted from unprecedented and never-to-be-repeated house price rises have a good (frankly selfish) reason for being tory. The rest of us don't.
The best people get more left-wing as they get older. The older they get the more injustice they see and the more determined they are to do something about it. I am inspired by some of the older people I've met, who are engaging in a range of big political issues whilst middle aged farts like me whinge about the pressures of daily life.
I hadn't really thought that voting Brexit and for the Conservatives was particularly left wing
Urgh, it's foul out there. And I have been rewarded for finally finishing the election campaign by waking up with a stinking cold and hacking cough. Bloody germ-ridden voters....
while a hung parliament is my preferred outcome today, I do almost wonder if I would prefer a large tory majority to à small one, on the off chance that it means Boris Johnson feels able to govern more as he did while mayor as a one nation type and throw the ERG overboard like he did the DUP.
If its a majority of 10 or so we could be in trouble, the ERG loons will have much more of a say and Johnson will have to curry favour with them. In addition there will be no more pro eu or left tory Rebels in the party, all the old ones have either left or backed down, and the new tory MPs will all show loyalty to Johnson as he got them elected.
My guess today is
42 tories 35 labour 11 Lib Dems
Leading to a small tory majority. Purely a huch, I've been very remote from this campaign so no anecdata to report beyond the fact that the idea of tactical voting really seems to be widely spoken of now, even more than 2017, so Lib dems should do better in seats than votes even while being squeezed by Labour.
My prediction is Con 360, Lib Dem 18, SNP 40, Northern Ireland 18, Others 7 (including the East Devon Independent) Labour 207 or thereabouts.
Your forecast of 18 Northern Irish seats is pretty bold. How confident are you we won't see Ulster breaking out and getting north of 20?
That's a good point RCS
This country needs more NI MPs.
if we had 650 of them they could all refuse to sit together like they do back home and then there would be nobody in government and the country would be a better place.
One of the more shocking stats of this election is that there are 100 000 people waiting for hospital treatment in NI for more than a year. Pretty astonishing in a place with only 1 800 000 people. It puts the failures of the English and Welsh NHS into perspective.
that's probably saving lives
when my dad went in to his local hospital in NI some years back the bastards nearly killed him ( lack of basic care, norovirus, etc ) . He only recovered when he got back out !
A very bizarre experience was, when visiting soldiers in MPH, after passing through the normal reception, there was a little booth, usually manned by a fresh-faced young female nurse, where, because they weren't allowed in the hospital, we had to hand over all our weapons and she would smile sweetly as she collected them up and gave us a ticket as though as she was taking coats at the theatre.
Urgh, it's foul out there. And I have been rewarded for finally finishing the election campaign by waking up with a stinking cold and hacking cough. Bloody germ-ridden voters....
Lol, sympathies. Am expecting much the same after a day in the rain. A canvassers' trade union to oppose December elections would be nice.
Comments
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/05/protecting-our-democracy/
when my dad went in to his local hospital in NI some years back the bastards nearly killed him ( lack of basic care, norovirus, etc ) . He only recovered when he got back out !
We’re collectively struggling with the economic eclipse of the West, and rapid demographic change.
It was all laid bare by the credit crunch and its aftermath, as well as policy decisions taken in the noughties that then came home to roost.
Easy to forget Corbyn comfortably preceded Brexit, and the UKIP surge even before that.
Blame him. It takes two to tango.
My final predictions:
The final lead will be around 8%. There will be a last minute Labour uptick, as in 2017.
It won’t be enough to stop the Tories knocking a few bricks out of the red wall, but won’t be a total collapse.
We’re going to see some seats we thought were gonners stay stubbornly Labour, and some that looked comfortable for Labour swinging massively away from them.
Swinson will hold her seat by the tiniest of margins. Overall the LDs will have a shocking night.
There’ll be a couple of labour gains from the Tories. Maybe Putney and IDS.
Most entertaining interview of the night will go to Anna Soubry.
BXP will come shockingly close in Bansley Central.
The final result: Conservative majority of 10-24. Enough to get Brexit done but a challenge to govern for the full five years.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/liberal-democrat-brendan-devlin-stockton-south-labour-candidate-1338807
This is my favourite pb regular prediction.
An accusation you then failed to clarify.
What an election. One where the 'best' result is an incompetent egotist unfit to be in Cabinet remains PM. And yet the alternative is an order of magnitude worse.
Still, fingers crossed for a strong Conservative majority, and Boris Johnson losing his seat.
I said it was not nice to get a lot of abuse for not voting Tory.
So far in response you called me a twat, partisan and a drone.
Doesn’t feel like a Tango.
Hardly on the same scale as the abuse and unpleasantness littering your posts this morning, is it?
So if Survation are as accurate with this 2019 Eve Of Poll poll as they were in 2015 and 2017 Conservatives are about to get a near-landslide of majority?
I still expect a narrow Conservative win but I'm by no means sure.
I'm fairly confident of my betting position though. When Labour languished at 25% in the polls I got on them at good odds for 200+ seats. We shall see!
1. Tactical voting. Yes, yes I know, that old bugbear, but I think people are right that it will make the difference in some places. I don’t think it will have the seismic impact some suggest, but it will be there in a number of seats.
2. The fundamentals are that the Tories have been in power for 9 years and whilst the economy is broadly ok, there are a lot of people out there who don’t feel particularly secure or looked after. Think FloorGate.
3. Labour are much more fired up than the Tories were in, say, 1997 or 2001. They are motivated and they are loud. They won’t just roll over.
One factor I am interested in is how big of an age divide we have again. It can't be sustainable to have such a big difference between young and old, those of working age and those retired.
I've lived through landslides and this time the mood ain't that. The third point is particularly good - something I've noticed too.
The real question is what will Labour's vote share be when they come out for rejoining at the next GE...or indeed their vote share if they don't!
The generation which benefitted from unprecedented and never-to-be-repeated house price rises have a good (frankly selfish) reason for being tory. The rest of us don't.
I am comfortable with my betting position, but the country is going down a Trumpian plughole.
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1205011532511371264?s=19
Fits with YouGov MRP. Everything on a knife edge.
If YouGov is correct it will be four.
I am confident it won't be a landslide and I, too, have been 'on the doorstep' as well as on social media (dismiss at your peril - it's where under 30's live nowadays).
It won't be a landslide but I wish you all a good day. I'm off to the cinema!!!! And then tomorrow morning I fly from these shores for a break.
18-24: -48
65+: +50
My heart has softened the older I've got and the more I've become aware of the injustices around me.
Don't get me started on the tories' austerity programme and universal credit. My friends are fed up with me going into rant mode about it!!!
Although we were going to Ban The Bomb, as I recall.
I think Claire Wright will win Devon East.
I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.
It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...
https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1204868698470789120?s=20
https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1205030492468367362?s=20
After LauraK. 's intervention yesterday I might vote Conservative just to remind myself what voting for a winner feels like.
Stupid presidential campaign by Labour. A leader everyone despises pits himself against a well loved comedic TV personality.
"Here’s a clue...don’t vote for the one hiding in a fridge"
"Indiana Jones?"
If its a majority of 10 or so we could be in trouble, the ERG loons will have much more of a say and Johnson will have to curry favour with them. In addition there will be no more pro eu or left tory Rebels in the party, all the old ones have either left or backed down, and the new tory MPs will all show loyalty to Johnson as he got them elected.
My guess today is
42 tories
35 labour
11 Lib Dems
Leading to a small tory majority. Purely a huch, I've been very remote from this campaign so no anecdata to report beyond the fact that the idea of tactical voting really seems to be widely spoken of now, even more than 2017, so Lib dems should do better in seats than votes even while being squeezed by Labour.
The young