politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Getting Brexit Done

FrancisUrquhart said:

It has been quite a strange campaign in that there hasn't been the chain letter campaigns (other than the pitiful 40 person one to the Guardian, where half of them aren't even able to vote in the UK), no Panorama specials "exposing" the dodgy backgrounds of the leaders or the soft soap at house with specials and few celebs making personal appearances / making hypocritical campaign videos.

I'm still awaiting instructions from Russel Brand,

camel said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It has been quite a strange campaign in that there hasn't been the chain letter campaigns (other than the pitiful 40 person one to the Guardian, where half of them aren't even able to vote in the UK), no Panorama specials "exposing" the dodgy backgrounds of the leaders or the soft soap at house with specials and few celebs making personal appearances / making hypocritical campaign videos.

I'm still awaiting instructions from Russel Brand,

Isn't he confined to the garden shed of his massive country pile these days looking like some weirdo ageing hobo making dull podcasts about stuff he doesn't really understand or just batshit crazy? A lot in common with Dave...

Devastating stuff from Oborne, a lifelong Conservative.


"Something horrible has happened. The Conservative party lies. It cheats. It bullies. It’s not the wise, gentle, decent party of the postwar era.

I wonder whether Boris Johnson and his squalid associates are Conservatives at all. The Conservativism I understand is about public duty, generosity, the instinct to conserve what is good in our society; the importance of the rule of law and of institutions; suspicion of leaps in the dark. I am thinking of the Conservatism of Burke, Lord Salisbury, Oakeshott.

Johnson has become the leader of a project – his adviser Dominic Cummings is an important part of this – to destroy Conservatism. This is why during his brief term as prime minister Boris Johnson has attacked parliament, mocked the rule of law, abused the monarchy, and shown a total disregard for the truth."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/11/boris-johnson-destroy-britain-conservative-revolutionary-sect

TheScreamingEagles said:

From Private Eye.

Blimey, that "prick with a fork" thing was an fake news internet meme about Ainsley Harriot about a decade ago, surpised they have the nerve to copy that

spudgfsh said:

Andy_JS said:

nico67 said:

rpjs said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

viewcode said:

Benpointer said:

Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.

Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?

I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.

Has no-one ever proposed early voting at a smaller number of polling stations for a week or so before the polling date for the UK? It seems to work quite well here in the US and A.

That would make far too much sense !

Equally I think moving polling day to a Sunday would be a good idea but I can’t see that happening .

I'd have voting on Saturday and Sunday to maximise turnout.

It's amazing that we don't have ward level or polling station level counting. I'd reform the system so it's easier for data nerds to make better predictions.

I think that would massively increase the number of scrutinisers required from each party and so increase the risk of something dodgy happening.

Ŵ

Beibheirli_C said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

viewcode said:

Benpointer said:

Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.

Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?

Seriously?

Because of the lack of accountability. He (or she) who controls the computers can have any result they like regardless of votes cast. The paper votes system with piles being counted in full view is hard to beat for security, especially if the boxes are opened within minutes of the polls closing.

Remember, anyone can go to a count. You may have to view it from a public gallery but anyone can watch the process.

BTW - Postal voting should have higher levels of scrutiny and be harder to get. Individual voter registration was a good step forward as is requiring a signature to accompany postal votes (as long as the signatures are cross-checked with the registration documents as they come in)

Yes. A fair few postal votes get rejected because signatures don’t match up - it’s not rare

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1204855717712318466?s=20

Fysics_Teacher said:

spudgfsh said:

It's amazing that we don't have ward level or polling station level counting. I'd reform the system so it's easier for data nerds to make better predictions.

I think that would massively increase the number of scrutinisers required from each party and so increase the risk of something dodgy happening.

it works in many other countries. you wouldn't need to do too much different, just keep the ballot boxes from each ward together at the count rather than mix them up as is done at the moment.

Peter Oborne is mad. Just thought I'd say that.

dr_spyn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It has been quite a strange campaign in that there hasn't been the chain letter campaigns (other than the pitiful 40 person one to the Guardian, where half of them aren't even able to vote in the UK), no Panorama specials "exposing" the dodgy backgrounds of the leaders or the soft soap at house with specials and few celebs making personal appearances / making hypocritical campaign videos.

https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1204816888389390337

115 Poets for Corbyn.

That’s a really long version of the 12 days of Christmas

HYUFD said:

twitter.com/HackedOffHugh/status/1204851528105902083?s=20

Alien vs Predator....

Chris said:

dr_spyn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It has been quite a strange campaign in that there hasn't been the chain letter campaigns (other than the pitiful 40 person one to the Guardian, where half of them aren't even able to vote in the UK), no Panorama specials "exposing" the dodgy backgrounds of the leaders or the soft soap at house with specials and few celebs making personal appearances / making hypocritical campaign videos.

https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1204816888389390337

115 Poets for Corbyn.

What is that worth against Jeffrey Archer backing the Tories?

A Jeffrey?

*cough*

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1204853360886611968?s=20

Isn't that really bad for the Tories?

Given virtually 0 2017 Tories are now voting Labour, 9% of 2017 Labour voters voting Tory and 2% voting Brexit Party certainly not bad news for them

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1204855717712318466?s=20

Why do celebrities feel that they are adding anything or are honour bound to share their political views? The first series of Alan Partridge was hilarious, so are The Trip series'... do I feel the need to know what he thinks about politics on the News as well? Why?

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

viewcode said:

Benpointer said:

Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.

Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?

I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.

Essentially nobody who works in computer security thinks that online voting, or even voting machines, is a good idea.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1204853360886611968?s=20

Who would have guessed anti Semiticism and economic insanity would be so popular.

dr_spyn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It has been quite a strange campaign in that there hasn't been the chain letter campaigns (other than the pitiful 40 person one to the Guardian, where half of them aren't even able to vote in the UK), no Panorama specials "exposing" the dodgy backgrounds of the leaders or the soft soap at house with specials and few celebs making personal appearances / making hypocritical campaign videos.

https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1204816888389390337

115 Poets for Corbyn.

There was an old man of the left,
Whose popularity gave him some heft,
He taxed the few,
And repelled the Jew,
And so the opposition was cleft.

IanB2 said:

The Guardian has learned that Waltham Forest council in east London has been scrambling to deliver postal votes that should have been out by last Friday, after an administrative error delayed the process.

The problem affected 1,470 voters in three constituencies, including Chingford and Woodford Green, which Iain Duncan Smith won for the Conservatives with a majority of 2,438 at the last election and which is a key target for Labour.

Jesus. Can people whose postal voting slip has not turned up in the post just show up and vote at the polling station? There could be a few elderly IDS voters in that 1,470 number.

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1204804957679038465

A Labour activist maiming a Conservative activist for life using something as horrific as acid would have been despicable. It could and should have been a game changer. If, as is being implied, this was another work of fiction by Guido Fawkes, it serves to demonstrate what a sick mind Staines is in possession of.

IanB2 said:

The Guardian has learned that Waltham Forest council in east London has been scrambling to deliver postal votes that should have been out by last Friday, after an administrative error delayed the process.

The problem affected 1,470 voters in three constituencies, including Chingford and Woodford Green, which Iain Duncan Smith won for the Conservatives with a majority of 2,438 at the last election and which is a key target for Labour.

Convenient....

KeithJenner said:

Andrew said:

Andy_JS said:

Advice to people planning to spoil their paper: don't leave it completely blank in case someone at the count tries to turn it into a valid vote. Best to do something like voting for all the candidates.

Tempted to draw a phallus on it solely to see which party claims it means a vote for them.

I like the idea of spoiling my ballot in a way that will entertain when they go through them at the count. However, at that point people are really just concentrating on whether they can claim it or not, so it wouldn't be noticed.

It always amuses me when people say they spoilt their ballot by writing a clever message on it, obviously imagining that people will be reading what they have written and thinking "ooh, good point, that told us!". The number that are actually read by anyone must be tiny.

They’ll be seen by a council counter, maybe overlooked by a party scrutineer or two, and put aside in a special tray. Then at three in the morning the ERO and the party agents will whiz through them and decide whether they are valid or not. By that time the result is known, and unless it is particularly close or a party is close to the deposit line, no-one is that bothered what happens to them.

KentRising said:

IanB2 said:

The Guardian has learned that Waltham Forest council in east London has been scrambling to deliver postal votes that should have been out by last Friday, after an administrative error delayed the process.

The problem affected 1,470 voters in three constituencies, including Chingford and Woodford Green, which Iain Duncan Smith won for the Conservatives with a majority of 2,438 at the last election and which is a key target for Labour.

Jesus. Can people whose postal voting slip has not turned up in the post just show up and vote at the polling station? There could be a few elderly IDS voters in that 1,470 number.

Aren't postal voters on the lists at the polling station with a line through them as already voted?

KentRising said:

Foxy said:

dr_spyn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It has been quite a strange campaign in that there hasn't been the chain letter campaigns (other than the pitiful 40 person one to the Guardian, where half of them aren't even able to vote in the UK), no Panorama specials "exposing" the dodgy backgrounds of the leaders or the soft soap at house with specials and few celebs making personal appearances / making hypocritical campaign videos.

https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1204816888389390337

115 Poets for Corbyn.

There was an old man of the left,
Whose popularity gave him some heft,
He taxed the few,
And repelled the Jew,
And so the opposition was cleft.

'Poets' in the loosest possible use of the term. There are only 10 proper poets in the entire country.

Who are the other nine?

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1204855717712318466?s=20

What an absolute cock Steve Coogan is. Tories should be sending that out on Facebook ASAP...see what they think of you.

I have to say all his sanctimonious stuff about phone hacking, when he used to be best mates with the NOTW celeb bod, used to phone him up on a Saturday night and got them to spike all sorts of stories about him.

He got pissed when Andy Coulson came in and said why do we keep not printing the stories about him?

I'm still waiting for similar levels of celeb outrage to be directed at Trinity Mirror.

No_Offence_Alan said:

spudgfsh said:

Andy_JS said:

nico67 said:

rpjs said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

viewcode said:

Benpointer said:

Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.

Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?

I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.

Has no-one ever proposed early voting at a smaller number of polling stations for a week or so before the polling date for the UK? It seems to work quite well here in the US and A.

That would make far too much sense !

Equally I think moving polling day to a Sunday would be a good idea but I can’t see that happening .

I'd have voting on Saturday and Sunday to maximise turnout.

It's amazing that we don't have ward level or polling station level counting. I'd reform the system so it's easier for data nerds to make better predictions.

It is done in Scotland for the local elections (held under STV) which are counted electronically. One year I was 50% of the Lib Dem votes in a ballot box.

Ah but I am sure Jo will do better this time.

IanB2 said:

The Guardian has learned that Waltham Forest council in east London has been scrambling to deliver postal votes that should have been out by last Friday, after an administrative error delayed the process.

The problem affected 1,470 voters in three constituencies, including Chingford and Woodford Green, which Iain Duncan Smith won for the Conservatives with a majority of 2,438 at the last election and which is a key target for Labour.

That will be the Labour-controlled Waltham Forest council......

According to Panelbase Labours attempt to put the NHS as their centre piece during the campaign has succeeded .

The NHS is the top issue .

Corbyn leads 42 to 27 over Johnson on that .

It doesn’t translate into the headline voting intention but still should cause some concern in no 10 going into tomorrow .

glw said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

viewcode said:

Benpointer said:

Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.

Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?

I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.

Essentially nobody who works in computer security thinks that online voting, or even voting machines, is a good idea.

I'm turning into a right old codger in middle age, but I love how low rent UK elections are. I want to cast my vote in a plywood booth in the village hall, not on an iPad.

KentRising said:

Foxy said:

dr_spyn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It has been quite a strange campaign in that there hasn't been the chain letter campaigns (other than the pitiful 40 person one to the Guardian, where half of them aren't even able to vote in the UK), no Panorama specials "exposing" the dodgy backgrounds of the leaders or the soft soap at house with specials and few celebs making personal appearances / making hypocritical campaign videos.

https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1204816888389390337

115 Poets for Corbyn.

There was an old man of the left,
Whose popularity gave him some heft,
He taxed the few,
And repelled the Jew,
And so the opposition was cleft.

'Poets' in the loosest possible use of the term. There are only 10 proper poets in the entire country.

Where's Philip Larkin when you need him?

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1204855717712318466?s=20

What an absolute cock Steve Coogan is. Tories should be sending that out on Facebook ASAP...see what they think of you.

I have to say all his sanctimonious stuff about phone hacking, when he used to be best mates with the NOTW celeb bod, used to phone him up on a Saturday night and got them to spike all sorts of stories about him.

He got pissed when Andy Coulson came in and said why do we keep not printing the stories about him?

I'm still waiting for similar levels of celeb outrage to be directed at Trinity Mirror.

Very odd that.....despite all the hard evidence being that the Mirror being Russian level doping compared to NOTW's Oregon project...

algarkirk said:

KentRising said:

Foxy said:

dr_spyn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It has been quite a strange campaign in that there hasn't been the chain letter campaigns (other than the pitiful 40 person one to the Guardian, where half of them aren't even able to vote in the UK), no Panorama specials "exposing" the dodgy backgrounds of the leaders or the soft soap at house with specials and few celebs making personal appearances / making hypocritical campaign videos.

https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1204816888389390337

115 Poets for Corbyn.

There was an old man of the left,
Whose popularity gave him some heft,
He taxed the few,
And repelled the Jew,
And so the opposition was cleft.

'Poets' in the loosest possible use of the term. There are only 10 proper poets in the entire country.

Where's Philip Larkin when you need him?

Still being read, 35 years after his death.

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1204853360886611968?s=20

Isn't that really bad for the Tories?

Given virtually 0 2017 Tories are now voting Labour, 9% of 2017 Labour voters voting Tory and 2% voting Brexit Party certainly not bad news for them

Depends where they are. Won’t be enough in most Northern Labour seats.

isam said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1204855717712318466?s=20

Why do celebrities feel that they are adding anything or are honour bound to share their political views? The first series of Alan Partridge was hilarious, so are The Trip series'... do I feel the need to know what he thinks about politics on the News as well? Why?

Its not that different to us posting on here, celebs just happens to have a bigger audience.

IanB2 said:

KeithJenner said:

Andrew said:

Andy_JS said:

Advice to people planning to spoil their paper: don't leave it completely blank in case someone at the count tries to turn it into a valid vote. Best to do something like voting for all the candidates.

Tempted to draw a phallus on it solely to see which party claims it means a vote for them.

I like the idea of spoiling my ballot in a way that will entertain when they go through them at the count. However, at that point people are really just concentrating on whether they can claim it or not, so it wouldn't be noticed.

It always amuses me when people say they spoilt their ballot by writing a clever message on it, obviously imagining that people will be reading what they have written and thinking "ooh, good point, that told us!". The number that are actually read by anyone must be tiny.

They’ll be seen by a council counter, maybe overlooked by a party scrutineer or two, and put aside in a special tray. Then at three in the morning the ERO and the party agents will whiz through them and decide whether they are valid or not. By that time the result is known, and unless it is particularly close or a party is close to the deposit line, no-one is that bothered what happens to them.

Yeah, I know how it works. I've been through them a few times myself.

And at no point have we ever considered anything other than whether we could claim it as a vote. It would have to be something very clear and obviously funny to get the laugh that I would ideally like to achieve.

I suppose that it could give the counter a brief respite from the boredom.

KentRising said:

algarkirk said:

KentRising said:

Foxy said:

dr_spyn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It has been quite a strange campaign in that there hasn't been the chain letter campaigns (other than the pitiful 40 person one to the Guardian, where half of them aren't even able to vote in the UK), no Panorama specials "exposing" the dodgy backgrounds of the leaders or the soft soap at house with specials and few celebs making personal appearances / making hypocritical campaign videos.

https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1204816888389390337

115 Poets for Corbyn.

There was an old man of the left,
Whose popularity gave him some heft,
He taxed the few,
And repelled the Jew,
And so the opposition was cleft.

'Poets' in the loosest possible use of the term. There are only 10 proper poets in the entire country.

Where's Philip Larkin when you need him?

Still being read, 35 years after his death.

They fuck you up, your mum and dad...

Just brilliant.

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1204853360886611968?s=20

Isn't that really bad for the Tories?

Given virtually 0 2017 Tories are now voting Labour, 9% of 2017 Labour voters voting Tory and 2% voting Brexit Party certainly not bad news for them

Depends where they are. Won’t be enough in most Northern Labour seats.

I think they will benefit from the 20%+ of 2017 Labour voters that won't vote Labour this time around.

We are going to end up where we were 6 weeks ago aren't we....Flat Cap Fred isn't going to vote Boris in the end.

KeithJenner said:

IanB2 said:

KeithJenner said:

Andrew said:

Andy_JS said:

Advice to people planning to spoil their paper: don't leave it completely blank in case someone at the count tries to turn it into a valid vote. Best to do something like voting for all the candidates.

Tempted to draw a phallus on it solely to see which party claims it means a vote for them.

I like the idea of spoiling my ballot in a way that will entertain when they go through them at the count. However, at that point people are really just concentrating on whether they can claim it or not, so it wouldn't be noticed.

It always amuses me when people say they spoilt their ballot by writing a clever message on it, obviously imagining that people will be reading what they have written and thinking "ooh, good point, that told us!". The number that are actually read by anyone must be tiny.

They’ll be seen by a council counter, maybe overlooked by a party scrutineer or two, and put aside in a special tray. Then at three in the morning the ERO and the party agents will whiz through them and decide whether they are valid or not. By that time the result is known, and unless it is particularly close or a party is close to the deposit line, no-one is that bothered what happens to them.

Yeah, I know how it works. I've been through them a few times myself.

And at no point have we ever considered anything other than whether we could claim it as a vote. It would have to be something very clear and obviously funny to get the laugh that I would ideally like to achieve.

I suppose that it could give the counter a brief respite from the boredom.

You’ll know then that agents look forward to it as an interesting highlight of the night, particularly in a seat where the result wasn’t in suspense. It’s a good source of tales to tell down the pub.

egg said:

Foxy said:

dr_spyn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It has been quite a strange campaign in that there hasn't been the chain letter campaigns (other than the pitiful 40 person one to the Guardian, where half of them aren't even able to vote in the UK), no Panorama specials "exposing" the dodgy backgrounds of the leaders or the soft soap at house with specials and few celebs making personal appearances / making hypocritical campaign videos.

https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1204816888389390337

115 Poets for Corbyn.

There was an old man of the left,
Whose popularity gave him some heft,
He taxed the few,
And repelled the Jew,
And so the opposition was cleft.

An MP called Jacob Rees-Mogg,
Who dresses like Phileas Fogg,
He insulted the dead,
Then to Somerset he fled,
And lounged on a bench like a slob.

A liberal leader called Jo
Said 'number 10 i'll go'
The public did laugh
and so did her staff
in hell it'd be more likely to snow

FrancisUrquhart said:

We are going to end up where we were 6 weeks ago aren't we....

Not possible. 23 independents at dissolution (even more not long before then).

CorrectHorseBattery said:

What’s the lowest lead we’ve had this evening please?

You've not had a lead this evening.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

What’s the lowest lead we’ve had this evening please?

9, I think.

egg said:

spudgfsh said:

egg said:

Foxy said:

dr_spyn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It has been quite a strange campaign in that there hasn't been the chain letter campaigns (other than the pitiful 40 person one to the Guardian, where half of them aren't even able to vote in the UK), no Panorama specials "exposing" the dodgy backgrounds of the leaders or the soft soap at house with specials and few celebs making personal appearances / making hypocritical campaign videos.

https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/1204816888389390337

115 Poets for Corbyn.

There was an old man of the left,
Whose popularity gave him some heft,
He taxed the few,
And repelled the Jew,
And so the opposition was cleft.

An MP called Jacob Rees-Mogg,
Who dresses like Phileas Fogg,
He insulted the dead,
Then to Somerset he fled,
And lounged on a bench like a slob.

A liberal leader called Jo
Said 'number 10 i'll go'
The public did laugh
and so did her staff
in hell it'd be more likely to snow

Sounds like you stole that from baldrick

I do like blackadder but haven't watched it for years.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1204855136423677952

MikeL said:

Guardian needs to be much clearer - what does "has been scrambling" mean?

I strongly suspect all ballots have now been delivered - if not then surely Court action is possible.

Anyone who has received postal ballot can hand it in at polling station.

And for those too ill to do so, or who wanted a postal ballot because they would be out of the country?

FrancisUrquhart said:

ozymandias said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

What’s the lowest lead we’ve had this evening please?

Nine.

Statistically we should expect at least one that is small, say 5-6%.

The temptation to just release a fake one saying a one point lead must be considerable. Low risk, and huge upside.