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  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.

    I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.
    The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.
    So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.
    ‘<‘Pedant mode> If they are not on the register they might be Labour supporters but they can’t be Labour voters.’<‘/Pedant Mode>
    Who has been excluded?
    Why not just register everyone who has an NI number?
    Not everyone with an NI number is entitled to vote!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    For those not wanting a Tory majority .

    Apparently there’s more chance of the Tories underperforming because their polling is reliant on a large amount of BP and ex UKIP voters who underperformed in both the 2017 GE and 2019 Euro elections .

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.

    I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.
    The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.
    So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.
    ‘<‘Pedant mode> If they are not on the register they might be Labour supporters but they can’t be Labour voters.’<‘/Pedant Mode>
    Who has been excluded?
    Why not just register everyone who has an NI number?
    For the very good and obvious reason that several million people with an NI number are not entitled to vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    HYUFD said:
    I'm on the SDLP for Foyle and Belfast South for pennies so hopefully those come in. It'll be healthy to have a moderate left party with representation in Westminster for NI.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,123
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    Sad news. I saw him give a lecture about 10 years ago (which included being very sceptical about climate change).
    Yes he became persona non grata when it became clear that he wasn't fully onboard with climate change, despite being a life long conservationist.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Oborne - “Ian Austin, a Labour politician of negligible importance”
  • RIP, I used to like his wildlife programs from when I was a kid. I think he stood against John Major for the Referendum Party.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.

    I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.
    The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.
    So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.
    Zero voters have been excluded from the register.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    edited December 2019

    ICM, ComRes, Deltapoll and Survation still to come this evening?

    *lies buried under weight of opinion polls*

    Hoping to publish one final ELBOW within the next 12 hours :)

    Somebody has added the MRPs (YG and FocalData) to the Wiki poll table - do you think I should include them in ELBOW?
    Put it all in, Sunil!
    OK so I've got the following:

    Savanta Comres (8th Dec)
    Qriously (8th)
    ICM (9th)
    FocalData MRP (10th Dec)
    YG MRP (10th Dec)
    NumberCruncher Politics (10th)
    Opinium (11th Dec)
    Panelbase (11th Dec)

    Any omissions? (Survation I included with last week's ELBOW).

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    The full headline from the Peter Oborne article is as follows:

    "Boris Johnson wants to destroy the Britain I love. I cannot vote Conservative
    Peter Oborne

    Johnson’s Conservatives are a revolutionary sect and should be understood as such"
  • PB Exclusive.

    I can exclusively reveal that Opinium are joining Populus in conducting an on day how you voted poll.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155

    argyllrs said:

    Well have the same impact as the fifteen Labour MPs saying don’t vote Corbyn I expect: negligible.
    Did Boris shag his missus?
    Who is the “his” in that sentence?
    Mr Oborne
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    RIP, I used to like his wildlife programs from when I was a kid. I think he stood against John Major for the Referendum Party.
    Are you that old?
  • I've not been online much today - has there been a "Herdson Moment" to be aware of?

    No
    Not even a candidate hiding from Piers Morgan in a refrigerator. An extra 20 million votes from the Piers Morgan haters?
    No
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    MikeL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.

    2017 GE Electorate = 46,843,896.

    So up 1.4% - I guess that's roughly in line with population increase.

    Implies no change in % of people registered / not registered.

    So all those articles about registration surges were complete rubbish - surprise, surprise!

    And none of the journalists who wrote those articles have bothered to follow up the actual data - again surprise, surprise!
    If you strip out immigration (non voters), there is barely any population increase. So that could be an extra 1% of registrations
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    PB Exclusive.

    I can exclusively reveal that Opinium are joining Populus in conducting an on day how you voted poll.

    Why is that not an exit poll?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Andy_JS said:

    Sad news. I saw him give a lecture about 10 years ago (which included being very sceptical about climate change).
    Wasn't he also an enthusiastic Brexiteer?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    FPT:
    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
  • PB Exclusive.

    I can exclusively reveal that Opinium are joining Populus in conducting an on day how you voted poll.

    So they are doing their own exit poll?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:

    PB Exclusive.

    I can exclusively reveal that Opinium are joining Populus in conducting an on day how you voted poll.

    Why is that not an exit poll?
    Exit poll is when people exit the polling station, whereas theirs might just be an online/phone poll asking how you voted?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    PB Exclusive.

    I can exclusively reveal that Opinium are joining Populus in conducting an on day how you voted poll.

    Why is that not an exit poll?
    Exit poll is when people exit the polling station, whereas there's might just be an online/phone poll asking how you voted?
    Will they provide an option for ‘with a pencil and paper?’
  • ydoethur said:

    PB Exclusive.

    I can exclusively reveal that Opinium are joining Populus in conducting an on day how you voted poll.

    Why is that not an exit poll?
    Because the exit poll is supervised by Professor Sir John Curtice (pbuh) so that can only be called an exit poll.

    Plus these on the day polls have a poor track record.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,123
    edited December 2019
    I don't mean to be funny, but why would anybody else do some form of exit poll, when the official exit poll has shown to be very good in general (and the way they do it enables them to do seat predictions).
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    PB Exclusive.

    I can exclusively reveal that Opinium are joining Populus in conducting an on day how you voted poll.

    So they are doing their own exit poll?
    It wouldn't be the same as THE exit poll as they wouldn't be polling people as they leave the polling station. they would be polling people who they normally poll after they have voted (and gone home etc). (correct me if I'm wrong)
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.

    I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.
    The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.
    So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.
    ‘<‘Pedant mode> If they are not on the register they might be Labour supporters but they can’t be Labour voters.’<‘/Pedant Mode>
    Who has been excluded?
    Why not just register everyone who has an NI number?
    An NI number means you can work, not that you are a citizen, over 18, and resident in the country in the last fifteen years, nor which constituenciy you are in.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    I don't mean to be funny, but why would anybody else do some form of exit poll, when the official exit poll has shown to be very good in general.

    To show how good you are?

    Doesn't work if you get it totally wrong though.
  • FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.
  • I don't mean to be funny, but why would anybody else do some form of exit poll, when the official exit poll has shown to be very good in general.

    Lord Ashcroft likes to do it more for why you voted for x party.

    Other reasons include evil Hedge Funds wanting to get ahead of the markets.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited December 2019

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    A 2018 study estimated that actual turnout of GE17 could have been nearer 78% than 68%, because of all the duplicate entries on the register and people who had died. Basically the published electorate is way too large.

    Food for thought when using published electorate numbers for boundary reviews.

    Good news for my prediction of a turnout above 70% for the first time since 1997.
    Not if the current register is similar
    Shouldn't the register be "fresher" and so have fewer mistakes in it as old expired entries get purged near the end of the year and that should have just been done?
    With the introduction of rolling registers that doesn’t make nearly as much difference as it used to. But the annual canvass does mean that the register published in November is the most accurate of the year.

    Edit/ anyhow the biggest issue in that 2018 study is how many people are registered twice (or more) but only vote once.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    spudgfsh said:

    PB Exclusive.

    I can exclusively reveal that Opinium are joining Populus in conducting an on day how you voted poll.

    So they are doing their own exit poll?
    It wouldn't be the same as THE exit poll as they wouldn't be polling people as they leave the polling station. they would be polling people who they normally poll after they have voted (and gone home etc). (correct me if I'm wrong)
    No you’re completely right . I think that polling allows more questions about why you voted a certain way etc .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    spudgfsh said:

    PB Exclusive.

    I can exclusively reveal that Opinium are joining Populus in conducting an on day how you voted poll.

    So they are doing their own exit poll?
    It wouldn't be the same as THE exit poll as they wouldn't be polling people as they leave the polling station. they would be polling people who they normally poll after they have voted (and gone home etc). (correct me if I'm wrong)
    It’s not THE exit poll, it’s A customs Un...er, exit poll.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.

    I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.
    The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.
    So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.
    Zero voters have been excluded from the register.
    No wonder the Zero Party is struggling to make headway.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,123
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    I don't mean to be funny, but why would anybody else do some form of exit poll, when the official exit poll has shown to be very good in general.

    To show how good you are?

    Doesn't work if you get it totally wrong though.
    Sounds like a waste of time / money TBH.
  • RIP, I used to like his wildlife programs from when I was a kid. I think he stood against John Major for the Referendum Party.
    Are you that old?
    "What on Earth...?" was on during the 1980s.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    GIN1138 said:
    Jo Swansong.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited December 2019

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.

    I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.
    The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.
    So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.
    ‘<‘Pedant mode> If they are not on the register they might be Labour supporters but they can’t be Labour voters.’<‘/Pedant Mode>
    Who has been excluded?
    Why not just register everyone who has an NI number?
    An NI number means you can work, not that you are a citizen, over 18, and resident in the country in the last fifteen years, nor which constituenciy you are in.
    Deleted - missed a crucial word and misunderstood.
  • spudgfsh said:

    Banterman said:

    Interesting how Corbyn's IRA association didn't stick to him in 2017, whereas his antisemitism has this time.

    Either way, anyone voting for him should hang their heads in shame.

    Jester has done more to bring about a United Ireland and is an actual racist

    Anyone voting for him should hang their head in shame!!
    No, I don't think he is a racist, and certainly not indisputably so. He is however a liar and a charlatan. He may not be the first such PM in my lifetime of whom that could be said, but he would certainly the first who was known to be such before he was elected.
    His actions have shown that he may not be racist (or antisemitic) but he is, as are a large number of the hard left, blind to the antisemitism. his actions have shown as much.
    Is there some confusion here? I was referring to Boris Johnson.

    My views on Corbyn are well known and have been expressed here many times.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited December 2019

    RobD said:

    I don't mean to be funny, but why would anybody else do some form of exit poll, when the official exit poll has shown to be very good in general.

    To show how good you are?

    Doesn't work if you get it totally wrong though.
    Sounds like a waste of time / money TBH.
    You want fewer opinion polls? :open_mouth:

    get out.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    Because postal votes suit Darby and Joan, whereas secure apps don't?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.
    Has no-one ever proposed early voting at a smaller number of polling stations for a week or so before the polling date for the UK? It seems to work quite well here in the US and A.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    If Boris wins a majority then the Withdrawal Agreement will pass and there will thus be an agreed completed Deal, No Deal will no longer be possible and FTA talks will begin with the EU and it is misleading to talk about No Deal still in such a scenario, No Deal is only no completed and passed Withdrawal Agreement.

    It may be we can complete a FTA within a year and before the transition period ends or it may take a bit longer but a FTA will be done

    Have we addressed this b*llocks yet?
  • From Private Eye.


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.
    It's coming - you can't hold back progress.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    I don't mean to be funny, but why would anybody else do some form of exit poll, when the official exit poll has shown to be very good in general (and the way they do it enables them to do seat predictions).

    Betting. Or financial speculation
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,123
    edited December 2019
    IanB2 said:

    I don't mean to be funny, but why would anybody else do some form of exit poll, when the official exit poll has shown to be very good in general (and the way they do it enables them to do seat predictions).

    Betting. Or financial speculation
    If it was a private poll, yes absolutely. As they did with Brexit. But it sounds like this is just a normal poll, just conducted on the day and released post 10pm.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited December 2019

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    Everyone is too nervous about potential for fraud. Hacking. Server attacks etc.

  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    What are people searching in the last day before the election?

    https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now 1-d&amp;geo=GB&amp;q=/m/0h508,/m/025m87

    It's Boris in the Fridge, all 25 top queries in the UK is Boris hiding in a Fridge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited December 2019

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.
    It's coming - you can't hold back progress.
    Why is it progress? What about it improves things without additional issues?

    Also it is very easy to hold back or even reverse progress. Governments prove it all the time.
  • rpjs said:

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.
    Has no-one ever proposed early voting at a smaller number of polling stations for a week or so before the polling date for the UK? It seems to work quite well here in the US and A.
    I dunno. I just have experience of government IT systems. I've often thought about flogging them my old phone for 60 million quid....
  • FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.
    I don’t know how to link to it, but search YouTube for Tom Scott and “Why electronic Voting is a bad idea”. He gets very passionate about it.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    Think of how much effort and risk there would be in intercepting and editing even 150 postal ballots. You'd have to intercept them over a long period without being noticed, and then return them to the postal system.

    When (and it is a when) a flaw is discovered in electronic voting you'd be able to change 10,000s of votes without needing to put on your trousers.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.
    Has no-one ever proposed early voting at a smaller number of polling stations for a week or so before the polling date for the UK? It seems to work quite well here in the US and A.
    That would make far too much sense !

    Equally I think moving polling day to a Sunday would be a good idea but I can’t see that happening .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    RIP, I used to like his wildlife programs from when I was a kid. I think he stood against John Major for the Referendum Party.
    I'd often see him wandering about Durham back in the day.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    EPG said:

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    Because postal votes suit Darby and Joan, whereas secure apps don't?
    "Secure apps."
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Andrew said:
    I’m dubious about ICM they said the poll out on Monday was their final one .
  • FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.
    Also: https://xkcd.com/2030/
  • FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.
    It's coming - you can't hold back progress.
    Government IT. What could go wrong?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    I don't mean to be funny, but why would anybody else do some form of exit poll, when the official exit poll has shown to be very good in general (and the way they do it enables them to do seat predictions).

    Betting. Or financial speculation
    If it was a private poll, yes absolutely. As they did with Brexit. But it sounds like this is just a normal poll, just conducted on the day and released post 10pm.
    I guess there is personal kudos and business benefit if your model proves more accurate than Curtice’s? A bit like how the MRP has trumped ordinary polling based on one performance.
  • Well that s a shame - yet another lengthy anti-Brexit diatribe - but this time on the eve of election. Newsnight would be proud
  • Asking for a friend, how do you spoil your ballot with electronic voting?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.

    I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.
    The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.
    So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.
    ‘<‘Pedant mode> If they are not on the register they might be Labour supporters but they can’t be Labour voters.’<‘/Pedant Mode>
    Who has been excluded?
    Why not just register everyone who has an NI number?
    An NI number means you can work, not that you are a citizen, over 18, and resident in the country in the last fifteen years, nor which constituenciy you are in.
    Deleted - missed a crucial word and misunderstood.
    Was it in? I nearly said for...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710

    ICM, ComRes, Deltapoll and Survation still to come this evening?

    *lies buried under weight of opinion polls*

    Hoping to publish one final ELBOW within the next 12 hours :)

    Somebody has added the MRPs (YG and FocalData) to the Wiki poll table - do you think I should include them in ELBOW?
    Put it all in, Sunil!
    OK so I've got the following:

    Savanta Comres (8th Dec)
    Qriously (8th)
    ICM (9th)
    FocalData MRP (10th Dec)
    YG MRP (10th Dec)
    NumberCruncher Politics (10th)
    Opinium (11th Dec)
    Panelbase (11th Dec)

    Any omissions? (Survation I included with last week's ELBOW).

    BMG came out about an hour ago.

    It was posted on here but not on Wiki.

    C 41, L 32, LD 14, GR 4, BX 3
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Asking for a friend, how do you spoil your ballot with electronic voting?

    🍆?
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I don't mean to be funny, but why would anybody else do some form of exit poll, when the official exit poll has shown to be very good in general (and the way they do it enables them to do seat predictions).

    Betting. Or financial speculation
    If it was a private poll, yes absolutely. As they did with Brexit. But it sounds like this is just a normal poll, just conducted on the day and released post 10pm.
    I guess there is personal kudos and business benefit if your model proves more accurate than Curtice’s? A bit like how the MRP has trumped ordinary polling based on one performance.
    Yes I guess so, but the reason why MRP is so attractive to people is not just they got it right last time, but it actual seat predictions. As is the exit poll.

    Doing a standard VI poll can't be compared to the exit poll (as they never give vote %'s).
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.
    It's coming - you can't hold back progress.
    I'd argue adding a few hundred new ways for votes to be compromised en-masse is far from progress.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    The full headline from the Peter Oborne article is as follows:

    "Boris Johnson wants to destroy the Britain I love. I cannot vote Conservative
    Peter Oborne

    Johnson’s Conservatives are a revolutionary sect and should be understood as such"

    So he's literally going to vote for someone who wants a revolution - albeit of a different kind - instead?

    The guy's lost his marbles.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.

    I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.
    The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.
    So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.
    ‘<‘Pedant mode> If they are not on the register they might be Labour supporters but they can’t be Labour voters.’<‘/Pedant Mode>
    Who has been excluded?
    Why not just register everyone who has an NI number?
    An NI number means you can work, not that you are a citizen, over 18, and resident in the country in the last fifteen years, nor which constituenciy you are in.
    Deleted - missed a crucial word and misunderstood.
    Was it in? I near said for...
    No - I thought you said an NI number *did* prove you were over 18.
  • On topic: Has anyone noticed that the WTO is in trouble? It has a shortage of judges to arbitrate disputes and the USA (aka Trump) is apparently blocking the approintment of new ones.

    So, going out to WTO Rules is not exactly a Good Move ™ at this point

    BTW - Why is there a picture of Arlene Foster wrapped in a Europe flag as the thread header? ;):D:D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    RIP, I used to like his wildlife programs from when I was a kid. I think he stood against John Major for the Referendum Party.
    Yes remember his videos well from Biology classes, quite a character
  • MikeL said:

    ICM, ComRes, Deltapoll and Survation still to come this evening?

    *lies buried under weight of opinion polls*

    Hoping to publish one final ELBOW within the next 12 hours :)

    Somebody has added the MRPs (YG and FocalData) to the Wiki poll table - do you think I should include them in ELBOW?
    Put it all in, Sunil!
    OK so I've got the following:

    Savanta Comres (8th Dec)
    Qriously (8th)
    ICM (9th)
    FocalData MRP (10th Dec)
    YG MRP (10th Dec)
    NumberCruncher Politics (10th)
    Opinium (11th Dec)
    Panelbase (11th Dec)

    Any omissions? (Survation I included with last week's ELBOW).

    BMG came out about an hour ago.

    It was posted on here but not on Wiki.

    C 41, L 32, LD 14, GR 4, BX 3
    Thanks Mike!
  • EPG said:

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    Because postal votes suit Darby and Joan, whereas secure apps don't?
    Secure apps aren’t is much more the problem. Anyone who knows about computer security thinks it’s a really bad idea. See the links in my other posts on this topic.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Advice to people planning to spoil their paper: don't leave it completely blank in case someone at the count tries to turn it into a valid vote. Best to do something like voting for all the candidates.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    RIP, I used to like his wildlife programs from when I was a kid. I think he stood against John Major for the Referendum Party.
    Are you that old?
    "What on Earth...?" was on during the 1980s.
    "Watt on earth" wasn't it?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Andy_JS said:

    Advice to people planning to spoil their paper: don't leave it completely blank in case someone at the count tries to turn it into a valid vote. Best to do something like voting for all the candidates.

    Tempted to draw a phallus on it solely to see which party claims it means a vote for them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Asking for a friend, how do you spoil your ballot with electronic voting?

    It might allow you to spoil someone else’s ballot as well!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like the total electorate is going to be about 47.5 million, if the 523 seats we already have data for are typical.

    I wonder how many living individuals that represents. Strip out the deceased and double registered, and that represents a true 100% turnout figure.
    The population is 67.5 million and about 75% are adults, so the electorate ought to be about 50.6 million if everyone were registered.
    So several million Labour voters excluded from the register.
    What I find strange is that about 12 million people on the register won't bother to vote tomorrow, including some who've specially registered in the last few weeks.
    There are a good number of double registrations on the register, from students and second home owners, so may well be only 45 million unique registrations, perhaps 10% of the population not being on the register. Of course there are also a lot of longstanding EU citizens in that 10% not on the register.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    EPG said:

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    Because postal votes suit Darby and Joan, whereas secure apps don't?
    Secure apps aren’t is much more the problem. Anyone who knows about computer security thinks it’s a really bad idea. See the links in my other posts on this topic.
    Estonia uses it, using an electronic ID card.

    But I believe they also allow you to check how you voted.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Any docs in the house?

    Son has a cerantine level over 7. something as indicated by a blood test today

    His GP says drink lots of water and have another test tomorrow and if a similar result occurs he will need to be admitted.

    His girlfriend is a nurse and she asked doc at hospital who said come in now.

    He would prefer to go with GP's opinion which I can understand but do I need to encourage him to go tonight?
  • Asking for a friend, how do you spoil your ballot with electronic voting?

    Don’t worry, someone else will do that for you.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    Andy_JS said:

    The full headline from the Peter Oborne article is as follows:

    "Boris Johnson wants to destroy the Britain I love. I cannot vote Conservative
    Peter Oborne

    Johnson’s Conservatives are a revolutionary sect and should be understood as such"

    So he's literally going to vote for someone who wants a revolution - albeit of a different kind - instead?

    The guy's lost his marbles.
    He lost them a long time ago.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    If Boris wins a majority then the Withdrawal Agreement will pass and there will thus be an agreed completed Deal, No Deal will no longer be possible and FTA talks will begin with the EU and it is misleading to talk about No Deal still in such a scenario, No Deal is only no completed and passed Withdrawal Agreement.

    It may be we can complete a FTA within a year and before the transition period ends or it may take a bit longer but a FTA will be done

    Have we addressed this b*llocks yet?
    No because it is not worth pointing out to people what is actually in the WAIB, that’s the one everybody has forgotten. Nothing is legally agreed and it has to be agreed by 30/6 otherwise WTO (not no deal) brexit in the absence Of an agreement or an extension requested. Why anyone thinks the EU will agree something that is a good as we already have is beyond me. But why worry about mere details a Johnson majority gives him carte Blanche to implement any future relationship he wants without parliamentary scrutiny but then how many have actually looked beyond ‘get brexit done’ it’s ss good a con job as ‘take back control’
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    Benpointer: electronic methods were recently banned in the Netherlands due to worries about hacking from Russia.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/02/dutch-will-count-all-election-ballots-by-hand-to-thwart-cyber-hacking
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Andrew said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Advice to people planning to spoil their paper: don't leave it completely blank in case someone at the count tries to turn it into a valid vote. Best to do something like voting for all the candidates.

    Tempted to draw a phallus on it solely to see which party claims it means a vote for them.
    Is there really any question, this time?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    Floater said:

    Any docs in the house?

    Son has a cerantine level over 7. something as indicated by a blood test today

    His GP says drink lots of water and have another test tomorrow and if a similar result occurs he will need to be admitted.

    His girlfriend is a nurse and she asked doc at hospital who said come in now.

    He would prefer to go with GP's opinion which I can understand but do I need to encourage him to go tonight?

    It depends what his other results are. PM me if you prefer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The full headline from the Peter Oborne article is as follows:

    "Boris Johnson wants to destroy the Britain I love. I cannot vote Conservative
    Peter Oborne

    Johnson’s Conservatives are a revolutionary sect and should be understood as such"

    So he's literally going to vote for someone who wants a revolution - albeit of a different kind - instead?

    The guy's lost his marbles.
    He lost them a long time ago.
    I always thought of Oborne as being more of a cards man.
  • Andrew said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Advice to people planning to spoil their paper: don't leave it completely blank in case someone at the count tries to turn it into a valid vote. Best to do something like voting for all the candidates.

    Tempted to draw a phallus on it solely to see which party claims it means a vote for them.
    Obviously Boris!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038

    Asking for a friend, how do you spoil your ballot with electronic voting?

    Control-Alt-Delete
  • FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    Seriously?

    Because of the lack of accountability. He (or she) who controls the computers can have any result they like regardless of votes cast. The paper votes system with piles being counted in full view is hard to beat for security, especially if the boxes are opened within minutes of the polls closing.

    Remember, anyone can go to a count. You may have to view it from a public gallery but anyone can watch the process.

    BTW - Postal voting should have higher levels of scrutiny and be harder to get. Individual voter registration was a good step forward as is requiring a signature to accompany postal votes (as long as the signatures are cross-checked with the registration documents as they come in)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Any docs in the house?

    Son has a cerantine level over 7. something as indicated by a blood test today

    His GP says drink lots of water and have another test tomorrow and if a similar result occurs he will need to be admitted.

    His girlfriend is a nurse and she asked doc at hospital who said come in now.

    He would prefer to go with GP's opinion which I can understand but do I need to encourage him to go tonight?

    It depends what his other results are. PM me if you prefer.
    He was having the test to make sure ok for dye to be injected tomorrow for CT scan

    He is out now the other reading he mentioned was "200 plus" which I gathered is really not good at all but no idea what it is referring to.

    Obviously mum and /I are nervous - but don't want to increase his anxiety unless I need to make sure he goes tonight.

    Thanks for replying
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Andy_JS said:

    Advice to people planning to spoil their paper: don't leave it completely blank in case someone at the count tries to turn it into a valid vote. Best to do something like voting for all the candidates.

    I wonder how many people will be writing 'Brexit Now!' or 'STOP Brexit'

    is there a market on how many papers are spoiled?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Andy_JS said:

    Advice to people planning to spoil their paper: don't leave it completely blank in case someone at the count tries to turn it into a valid vote. Best to do something like voting for all the candidates.

    In my seat, I can draw testicles on the Yorkshire Party, have a shaft that rises up through the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Greens, a bell-end on the Conservative Party, and a squirt of ejaculate on the Brexit Party candidate.

    That'll learn 'em.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Floater said:

    Any docs in the house?

    Son has a cerantine level over 7. something as indicated by a blood test today

    His GP says drink lots of water and have another test tomorrow and if a similar result occurs he will need to be admitted.

    His girlfriend is a nurse and she asked doc at hospital who said come in now.

    He would prefer to go with GP's opinion which I can understand but do I need to encourage him to go tonight?

    Never take a chance. Both you and your son need peace of mind . If the doctor at the hospital thinks he should come in for more tests than I’d go with their opinion . No disrespect to the GP but that’s what I’d do.

    Good luck and I hope everything works out fine .

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,123
    edited December 2019
    It has been quite a strange campaign in that there hasn't been the chain letter campaigns (other than the pitiful 40 person one to the Guardian, where half of them aren't even able to vote in the UK), no Panorama specials "exposing" the dodgy backgrounds of the leaders or the soft soap at house with specials and few celebs making personal appearances / making hypocritical campaign videos.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    nico67 said:

    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    viewcode said:

    Weather's going to be foul across much of the country tomorrow. Isn't it about time we allowed on-line voting?

    No. If you cant get to the thousands of easily accessible obviously labeled polling stations around the country where they will give you privacy to vote as you see fit and a pencil to mak your mark, then just contact the council and they will arrange for a postal vote for you in future.
    Why is it ok to allow postal votes and not on-line voting?
    I've got zero expertise in this, but my view of the Internet is that there are far too many clever young 'uns who can do stuff with computers who are cleverer than the government.
    Has no-one ever proposed early voting at a smaller number of polling stations for a week or so before the polling date for the UK? It seems to work quite well here in the US and A.
    That would make far too much sense !

    Equally I think moving polling day to a Sunday would be a good idea but I can’t see that happening .
    I'd have voting on Saturday and Sunday to maximise turnout.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    Any docs in the house?

    Son has a cerantine level over 7. something as indicated by a blood test today

    His GP says drink lots of water and have another test tomorrow and if a similar result occurs he will need to be admitted.

    His girlfriend is a nurse and she asked doc at hospital who said come in now.

    He would prefer to go with GP's opinion which I can understand but do I need to encourage him to go tonight?

    Never take a chance. Both you and your son need peace of mind . If the doctor at the hospital thinks he should come in for more tests than I’d go with their opinion . No disrespect to the GP but that’s what I’d do.

    Good luck and I hope everything works out fine .

    Thank you
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    camel said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Advice to people planning to spoil their paper: don't leave it completely blank in case someone at the count tries to turn it into a valid vote. Best to do something like voting for all the candidates.

    In my seat, I can draw testicles on the Yorkshire Party, have a shaft that rises up through the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Greens, a bell-end on the Conservative Party, and a squirt of ejaculate on the Brexit Party candidate.

    That'll learn 'em.
    Clearly a BXP vote.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,123
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1204804957679038465

    I notice this time the Mail had the correct story very quickly and down playing it.
This discussion has been closed.