politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds remainers more likely than leavers to
Options
Comments
-
-38 --30 =An 8 point improvementwooliedyed said:
Yes it was 22/60 last time. A 4 point swingbrokenwheel said:
Going off memory that looks like mostly a decrease in the unfavourable figure rather than a positive vote for, so not the end of the world.Time_to_Leave said:Hmmm
Edit: I lie, it's half and half.0 -
Just because the FTPA insists that it be long, this doesn't necessarily mean that it's a good idea.AlastairMeeks said:And the idea that this is an excessively long campaign is laughable. It couldn’t have been shorter.
Obviously there are vast numbers of voters who are displeased with both of the main party leaders (and even more who hate the Government as an entity, but that's not exactly unheard of.) However, just because someone doesn't much like either Johnson or Corbyn, it doesn't mean that they're desperately dithering between the two. This would only occur if the voter in question found both men precisely as repellent as one another and, given that they aren't identical twins, that will seldom be the case.AlastairMeeks said:Look at the satisfaction ratings of (a) Boris Johnson (b) the government and (c) Jeremy Corbyn. Calculate the number of people who must be dissatisfied with all three. Consider how fixed they are likely to be in any choice they might provisionally have made.
NB that percentage is something like 40% of the electorate.0 -
That’s not a good reason not to vote for them. My daughter is voting Lib Dem in Dundee West and I am voting Tory. Both completely pointless in terms of the result but that’s democracy.eek said:
As AlistairMeeks commented below that's a lot of the electorate and chances are they aren't going to make up their mind until presented with the paper.UpTheMariners said:Some were thinking about not voting - but most did want to vote; it was a case of "who do I dislike least?"
I have to admit when I voted it was with a heavy heart wishing that the Lib Dems were an option (they weren't as a vote for them around here is no different from not voting or spoiling the ballot).2 -
He`s gone off to watch a film or something. Think what he`s missing.RobD said:
I'm assuming MarqueeMark will want to revel in the excitement in the build up.bigjohnowls said:
It was 3hrs 48 mins when you posted.RobD said:
3 hours and 38 minutes, to be precise?MarqueeMark said:Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....
PB Tories gone mad!!
0 -
I'd love to know what the "more recent data" is behind some of the lib dems' more egregious recommendations for tactical voting0
-
A corbyn majority is impossible, a hung parliament is not a national disaster but an opportunity. How it would play out is anyone’s guess but it ain’t going to happen no matter how much I would like it to. Floor gate has been trumped by traitor friend gateByronic said:
Corbyn's favourability is climbing fast, exactly as happened in 2017.Time_to_Leave said:
No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.Byronic said:
Another pointer to HPTime_to_Leave said:Hmmm
The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.
This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.
I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.0 -
Could you also tell the met office that you don't get accumulations of rain?Byronic said:
That offends me!AlastairMeeks said:
If you adore Jeremy Corbyn, you’ll vote for him. If you salute Boris Johnson Benny Hill-style every time you see him, you’ll vote for him.Cookie said:On thread - unless there was some further context, this is not a particularly uswful question since candidate I dislikethe least is just a grumpier way of saying candidate I like the most. Or am I missing something? I'm in full blown panic mode so may not be thinking clearly. For other Tory panickers, Ladbrokes has NOM at 4.0 + boost.
If you think both are stinking piles of effluent, the choice is markedly harder and different considerations come into play.
You can't have a "pile" of effluent. It's liquid.0 -
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872797587413360640RobD said:
I'm going to steel myself and watch 2017 again.RobinWiggs said:
Watching the BBC election special from 1983 might help too.MarqueeMark said:Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....
(just kidding, I couldn't watch that again
)0 -
I had a YouGov survey in my email from 10 hours ago about voting intention, I fear I have lost my chance to contribute to the glorious MRP, damn it.0
-
-
It’s nothing to do with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. The 25 working day minimum period is set by entirely separate legislation. It’s all in your head that this has been a long campaign. The very opposite is true!Black_Rook said:
Just because the FTPA insists that it be long, this doesn't necessarily mean that it's a good idea.AlastairMeeks said:And the idea that this is an excessively long campaign is laughable. It couldn’t have been shorter.
Obviously there are vast numbers of voters who are displeased with both of the main party leaders (and even more who hate the Government as an entity, but that's not exactly unheard of.) However, just because someone doesn't much like either Johnson or Corbyn, it doesn't mean that they're desperately dithering between the two. This would only occur if the voter in question found both men precisely as repellent as one another and, given that they aren't identical twins, that will seldom be the case.AlastairMeeks said:Look at the satisfaction ratings of (a) Boris Johnson (b) the government and (c) Jeremy Corbyn. Calculate the number of people who must be dissatisfied with all three. Consider how fixed they are likely to be in any choice they might provisionally have made.
NB that percentage is something like 40% of the electorate.1 -
Yes 4 up on approval, 4 down on disapproval, or a 4 point swingbigjohnowls said:
-38 --30 =An 8 point improvementwooliedyed said:
Yes it was 22/60 last time. A 4 point swingbrokenwheel said:
Going off memory that looks like mostly a decrease in the unfavourable figure rather than a positive vote for, so not the end of the world.Time_to_Leave said:Hmmm
Edit: I lie, it's half and half.0 -
Do you trust Jon Ashworth?bigjohnowls said:0 -
A lot of the media hyperbole seems to leave people cold; in this 24 hour news and internet age everything, however, minor, is an outrage or scandal or crisis so that when something major does happen the breathless media gave nowhere to apart from repeating the same pictures and vox pops over and over again - have the general public tired of them?0
-
I would certainly enjoy it a lot more. And it could make a difference at the local level or once in 15-20 years with a coalition. But I dont know if that is the most effective way to take on the extremists in the main parties. My right to moan and complain should be less unless I willing to put in the effort somehow.nichomar said:
Just join the lib dems and work from the ground up it can’t be done from within labour or Tory they think they control their patch and will never change except to the extremes. There is no better satisfaction than beating a lazy complacent Tory councillor try it it’s enjoyable.noneoftheabove said:
Great post. I know I should get politically active rather than just accept perpetual political disappointment, and to make any difference it probably needs to be in Labour or the Tories. There are many Labour and Tory politicians I admire but they tend to retiring or getting kicked out! It is time for a centrist entryist takeover of one of the main parties, which one, I am ambivalent. If it works for kippers and momentum why cant it work for centrists?NorthofStoke said:The voting system must change! We should be able to vote for something that is close to our beliefs not trying to game the system to stop something we hate.
The old two party system provided stability when the parties were clustered coalitions that carried out internal compromises and then bid for power. Big binary issues like Brexit break that model and then to put the icing on the cake the Labour Party has been captured by extremist fanatics.
After this crisis of an election I'm going to get politically active as appalled centrists can't simply act like consumers who don't like the offerings. One problem is the fanatics are really dedicated.0 -
Why do you believe this is such a big issue. I can remember far bigger events causing similar certainty in the week before a vote and in retrospect not having had any effect at allByronic said:
YouGov won't be definitive this time, because of LGIDavidL said:So when are we expecting an end to the wibbling? (I mean of course this super Yougov which is going to make the act of voting superfluous).
In terms of calming nerves, it will be valerian pastilles, not valium pills0 -
Josh AshworthDavidL said:
Do you trust Jon Ashworth?bigjohnowls said:
0 -
These IT wizard chaps really know how to rain on someone else's parade!bigjohnowls said:0 -
Time and again, people have assumed here that that there is some "gotcha" moment that will turn the campaign around, and there isn't.Mexicanpete said:
It might be a lot closer after the LGI controversy, and I don't expect Corbyn has improved at all.Sean_F said:
-30 is still a long way behind -14.Time_to_Leave said:Hmmm
0 -
If only we had a voting system where every vote counted, eh?DavidL said:
That’s not a good reason not to vote for them. My daughter is voting Lib Dem in Dundee West and I am voting Tory. Both completely pointless in terms of the result but that’s democracy.eek said:
As AlistairMeeks commented below that's a lot of the electorate and chances are they aren't going to make up their mind until presented with the paper.UpTheMariners said:Some were thinking about not voting - but most did want to vote; it was a case of "who do I dislike least?"
I have to admit when I voted it was with a heavy heart wishing that the Lib Dems were an option (they weren't as a vote for them around here is no different from not voting or spoiling the ballot).0 -
What is "traitor friend gate"? There are so many of these five-minute anti-social media flaps going on that I can't keep up!nichomar said:
A corbyn majority is impossible, a hung parliament is not a national disaster but an opportunity. How it would play out is anyone’s guess but it ain’t going to happen no matter how much I would like it to. Floor gate has been trumped by traitor friend gateByronic said:
Corbyn's favourability is climbing fast, exactly as happened in 2017.Time_to_Leave said:
No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.Byronic said:
Another pointer to HPTime_to_Leave said:Hmmm
The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.
This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.
I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.0 -
No one has done a Brexit. Possibly it will be bad, maybe probably, but even the worst case scenarios (most unlikely) posit a 5-8% loss in possible growth (not shrinkage) and a modest recession.AlastairMeeks said:
You see only Scylla while a large part of the electorate is staring with horror at sailing into Charybdis.Byronic said:
Corbyn's favourability is climbing fast, exactly as happened in 2017.Time_to_Leave said:
No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.Byronic said:
Another pointer to HPTime_to_Leave said:Hmmm
The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.
This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.
I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.
By contrast, Corbynism has been tried. We did it in the 70s and became the sick man of Europe, in apparently terminal decline, and what Corbyn proposes is much stupider than the 70s, with added insanity, around terror, security, Russia, Iran, identity politics.
We could be a mixture of Venezuela and North London Poly. We will certainly end up with crippling debts and capital flight which will leave us poorer on a scale not seen outside wartime.
What's more, Corbyn is a Jew hater. You want to vote for the Jew hater who will ruin us, because you're upset by a democratic vote? Go ahead. Be it on your conscience. Be it ALL on your conscience.
3 -
You guv will show Tories at around 43% and Labour fast catching up, at around 36%
Just enough to show that the Tories are still winning. Though not be get complacent and encourage a higher Tory turnout.0 -
Why did the communists win dad?
Well son, legend has it a man put a phone in his pocket1 -
On topic. Silly header silly survey. There’s only 2 or 3 % of brex left, and they think Boris deal is BINO sell out so ain’t shifting.
MRP is jibberish. Flawed yougov internet sampling, 650 into 100k makes it flakiest of constituency polls. If you think anything or anyone was spot on in any past so gold standard, they only fluked it.
I think the reminders to all remania that it might prevent the now inevitable Brexit if it tactically votes enough is not the smartest move from Cummings and Boris. However that mistake they have been saved from by tonight’s press joyfully splashing top labour spokesman say we can’t win over their headlines, so remainers won’t even bother to vote.0 -
But is it momentum that matters?Sean_F said:
-30 is still a long way behind -14.Time_to_Leave said:Hmmm
0 -
Not to pick friends but to not sell our NHS 100%DavidL said:
Do you trust Jon Ashworth?bigjohnowls said:0 -
I’m not voting for either. But don’t tell me that voting for a man who has already led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy and whose only policy is to push the country into the backwaters to endure the equivalent of a severe recession while dogwhistling about sending immigrants home is a safe bet. Be that on your conscience.Byronic said:
No one has done a Brexit. Possibly it will be bad, maybe probably, but even the worst case scenarios (most unlikely) posit a 5-8% loss in possible growth (not shrinkage) and a modest recession.AlastairMeeks said:
You see only Scylla while a large part of the electorate is staring with horror at sailing into Charybdis.Byronic said:
Corbyn's favourability is climbing fast, exactly as happened in 2017.Time_to_Leave said:
No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.Byronic said:
Another pointer to HPTime_to_Leave said:Hmmm
The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.
This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.
I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.
By contrast, Corbynism has been tried. We did it in the 70s and became the sick man of Europe, in apparently terminal decline, and what Corbyn proposes is much stupider than the 70s, with added insanity, around terror, security, Russia, Iran, identity politics.
We could be a mixture of Venezuela and North London Poly. We will certainly end up with crippling debts and capital flight which will leave us poorer on a scale not seen outside wartime.
What's more, Corbyn is a Jew hater. You want to vote for the Jew hater who will ruin us, because you're upset by a democratic vote? Go ahead. Be it on your conscience. Be it ALL on your conscience.0 -
I agree, but in those seats where the margins are tight, yesterday's train wreck might tip the balance.Sean_F said:
Time and again, people have assumed here that that there is some "gotcha" moment that will turn the campaign around, and there isn't.Mexicanpete said:
It might be a lot closer after the LGI controversy, and I don't expect Corbyn has improved at all.Sean_F said:
-30 is still a long way behind -14.Time_to_Leave said:Hmmm
I thought that about Ashworth's car crash earlier today, but as it is being framed on TV news as Shadow Minister thinks Labour can't win under Corbyn, it might have the opposite effect.0 -
I see Farage is trying to shore up the red wall....
Wonder why?0 -
I think so what does your ELBOW say?Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
I think something's snapped for him since Annunziata-gate.Scrapheap_as_was said:I see Farage is trying to shore up the red wall....
Wonder why?0 -
Boris is not a safe bet. I get why some dislike Corbyn. I don't get why they think Boris is acceptable. It is not a binary choice. The man is a bully, acted unlawfully and is a proven liar.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m not voting for either. But don’t tell me that voting for a man who has already led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy and whose only policy is to push the country into the backwaters to endure the equivalent of a severe recession while dogwhistling about sending immigrants home is a safe bet. Be that on your conscience.Byronic said:
No one has done a Brexit. Possibly it will be bad, maybe probably, but even the worst case scenarios (most unlikely) posit a 5-8% loss in possible growth (not shrinkage) and a modest recession.AlastairMeeks said:
You see only Scylla while a large part of the electorate is staring with horror at sailing into Charybdis.Byronic said:
Corbyn's favourability is climbing fast, exactly as happened in 2017.Time_to_Leave said:
No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.Byronic said:
Another pointer to HPTime_to_Leave said:Hmmm
The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.
This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.
I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.
By contrast, Corbynism has been tried. We did it in the 70s and became the sick man of Europe, in apparently terminal decline, and what Corbyn proposes is much stupider than the 70s, with added insanity, around terror, security, Russia, Iran, identity politics.
We could be a mixture of Venezuela and North London Poly. We will certainly end up with crippling debts and capital flight which will leave us poorer on a scale not seen outside wartime.
What's more, Corbyn is a Jew hater. You want to vote for the Jew hater who will ruin us, because you're upset by a democratic vote? Go ahead. Be it on your conscience. Be it ALL on your conscience.0 -
He sees irrelevance beckoning, for the first time in 20 years. Can't be nice.WhisperingOracle said:
I think something's snapped for him since Annuziata-gate.Scrapheap_as_was said:I see Farage is trying to shore up the red wall....
Wonder why?
He must also be getting a great deal of anger from previously allied Tories, and donors, not least Arron Banks, for continuing to stand his stupid party in any seats at all.0 -
"After learning the repercussions, support for nationalising water fell"?AlastairMeeks said: 0 -
That is an encouraging trend from a Labour POV. These are a different data series from the leader satisfaction data in Mori's political monitor that historically are a good predictor of the election outcome. But they seem to correlate (the better figures in the latest political monitor were foreshadowed by an improvement in the higher frequency campaign tracker numbers). The 7 point difference in positive favorability compares to a 12 point difference in the political monitor series and would point to a hung parliament other things being equal (although since you are no longer using strictly comparable data with respect to the historical data this is all rather speculative).Time_to_Leave said:Hmmm
0 -
When do we get red-wall-gate? I think it might lead to a nice allotment.WhisperingOracle said:
I think something's snapped for him since Annunziata-gate.Scrapheap_as_was said:I see Farage is trying to shore up the red wall....
Wonder why?2 -
In some respects Johnson is worse.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m not voting for either. But don’t tell me that voting for a man who has already led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy and whose only policy is to push the country into the backwaters to endure the equivalent of a severe recession while dogwhistling about sending immigrants home is a safe bet. Be that on your conscience.Byronic said:
No one has done a Brexit. Possibly it will be bad, maybe probably, but even the worst case scenarios (most unlikely) posit a 5-8% loss in possible growth (not shrinkage) and a modest recession.AlastairMeeks said:
You see only Scylla while a large part of the electorate is staring with horror at sailing into Charybdis.Byronic said:
Corbyn's favourability is climbing fast, exactly as happened in 2017.Time_to_Leave said:
No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.Byronic said:
Another pointer to HPTime_to_Leave said:Hmmm
The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.
This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.
I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.
By contrast, Corbynism has been tried. We did it in the 70s and became the sick man of Europe, in apparently terminal decline, and what Corbyn proposes is much stupider than the 70s, with added insanity, around terror, security, Russia, Iran, identity politics.
We could be a mixture of Venezuela and North London Poly. We will certainly end up with crippling debts and capital flight which will leave us poorer on a scale not seen outside wartime.
What's more, Corbyn is a Jew hater. You want to vote for the Jew hater who will ruin us, because you're upset by a democratic vote? Go ahead. Be it on your conscience. Be it ALL on your conscience.
At least Corbyn has believed in his dangerous nonsense for a lifetime. Johnson by contrast claims an epiphany over the UK's role in Europe at the very moment it looked like doing so would bolster his career.0 -
There not Communists son, it was just another lie put out by that idiot who refused to look at the photo of a suffering 4 yr old and then people realised his lack of empathy made him unfit to be PM.wooliedyed said:Why did the communists win dad?
Well son, legend has it a man put a phone in his pocket
But Dad you called them Communists didnt people believe you Dad?0 -
The moral of the story is to never trust a Tory. They’ll stab their friends in the back if they see advantages in it.IshmaelZ said:Ashworth had been on holiday with the guy who leaked the tape.
Blokes just don't come any lovelier than that.
1 -
What's he said? Don't give Boris too big a majority?Scrapheap_as_was said:I see Farage is trying to shore up the red wall....
Wonder why?0 -
David Cameron (pbuh) had a 17% lead over Ed Miliband when he won a majority in 2015
https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871434971797475328?s=210 -
The only reason you're able to spout this drivel is because you think Corbyn cannot win. If you thought he could win, I imagine his "dangerous nonsense" would become a lot more menacing than Boris' personality flaws.Mexicanpete said:
In some respects Johnson is worse.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m not voting for either. But don’t tell me that voting for a man who has already led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy and whose only policy is to push the country into the backwaters to endure the equivalent of a severe recession while dogwhistling about sending immigrants home is a safe bet. Be that on your conscience.Byronic said:
No one hascience.AlastairMeeks said:
You see only Scylla while a large part of the electorate is staring with horror at sailing into Charybdis.Byronic said:
Corbyn's favourability is climbing fast, exactly as happened in 2017.Time_to_Leave said:
No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.Byronic said:
Another pointer to HPTime_to_Leave said:Hmmm
The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.
This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.
I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.
At least Corbyn has believed in his dangerous nonsense for a lifetime. Johnson by contrast claims an epiphany over the UK's role in Europe at the very moment it looked like doing so would bolster his career.
The paradox, of course, is that if enough people think and act like you, then Corbyn WILL win, or will at least become PM in some form - and then the dangerous nonsense becomes reality.0 -
Who’s Nigel Farage? Didn’t he used to be someone to do with Europe.Scrapheap_as_was said:I see Farage is trying to shore up the red wall....
Wonder why?
0 -
I agree that too much emphasis is put on the MRP given its very short track record, but the "650 into 100k" comment makes me think you don't know how it worksegg said:On topic. Silly header silly survey. There’s only 2 or 3 % of brex left, and they think Boris deal is BINO sell out so ain’t shifting.
MRP is jibberish. Flawed yougov internet sampling, 650 into 100k makes it flakiest of constituency polls. If you think anything or anyone was spot on in any past so gold standard, they only fluked it.
I think the reminders to all remania that it might prevent the now inevitable Brexit if it tactically votes enough is not the smartest move from Cummings and Boris. However that mistake they have been saved from by tonight’s press joyfully splashing top labour spokesman say we can’t win over their headlines, so remainers won’t even bother to vote.0 -
Going solely by the satisfaction ratings I think we can rule out a landslide but looks more like a modest Tory majority.1
-
How quaint.TheScreamingEagles said:David Cameron (pbuh) had a 17% lead over Ed Miliband when he won a majority in 2015
https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/871434971797475328?s=210 -
Nah. Whistleblowing should be encouraged. Public interest defence and all that.SouthamObserver said:
The moral of the story is to never trust a Tory. They’ll stab their friends in the back if they see advantages in it.IshmaelZ said:Ashworth had been on holiday with the guy who leaked the tape.
Blokes just don't come any lovelier than that.0 -
He's started targeting the Tories' Get Brexit Done angle very specifically, since the fragrant Annunziata spurned his big tent a couple of days ago.Stark_Dawning said:
What's he said? Don't give Boris too big a majority?Scrapheap_as_was said:I see Farage is trying to shore up the red wall....
Wonder why?0 -
The NHS burns it’s way through over £120bn a year, not all of it on doctors pensions. How much do you think it is worth given it’s statutory duty to give away all it’s output for free? If you think Boris is capable of selling that you must believe he’s a lot more to incredible than I do.bigjohnowls said:
Not to pick friends but to not sell our NHS 100%DavidL said:
Do you trust Jon Ashworth?bigjohnowls said:0 -
As I said before there are people like that who support all parties in all walks of life.SouthamObserver said:
The moral of the story is to never trust a Tory. They’ll stab their friends in the back if they see advantages in it.IshmaelZ said:Ashworth had been on holiday with the guy who leaked the tape.
Blokes just don't come any lovelier than that.0 -
What a tease.Slackbladder said:0 -
An MEP I think. Redundant in January.Time_to_Leave said:
Who’s Nigel Farage? Didn’t he used to be someone to do with Europe.Scrapheap_as_was said:I see Farage is trying to shore up the red wall....
Wonder why?0 -
The problem with Boris is that he believes in precisely nothing. The bigger problem with Corbyn is that he does3
-
Eek. Edit - wait, no, that’s a happy (if nervous) face.
0 -
What is that Labour face exactly ? He looks asleep.RobD said:
What a tease.Slackbladder said:0 -
0
-
Good God do we have to wait three more hours to find out?0
-
Is this the twit that did this last time? Why don't they blacklist him?Slackbladder said:0 -
Anyway, enough screen time for today for these achey eyes.0
-
John Ashworth reminds me of err... Orville the duck0
-
Dammit you bastard!Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872797587413360640RobD said:
I'm going to steel myself and watch 2017 again.RobinWiggs said:
Watching the BBC election special from 1983 might help too.MarqueeMark said:Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....
(just kidding, I couldn't watch that again )
I didn't realise that was 2017 until after I'd had a heart attack!1 -
Corbyn is not a communist just a very left wing anti semite of limited intelligence who isn’t going to win
Johnson is equally as damaging to our democracy and economy for different reasons
It is not a binary choice, if you think that then you need to start campaigning for a proper voting system.
Whilst not actually having to accept what those who have actually been out on the door steps are telling us they are the basis of democracy and people should remember on Thursday night Friday morning that your delight is someone else’s agony and respect for those having the guts to take part should be universal.0 -
MRP is not a constituency poll. It is an attempt to assess the voting intention of each socioeconomic group, then apply those figures to each constituency, then apply turnout assumptions, predict who will win each seat, and thus predict the election. Classical sampling statistics aren't used in this - it's all regression - so concepts like margin of error do not strictly apply, although they will use some technique to assess the variance of their estimate.egg said:On topic. Silly header silly survey. There’s only 2 or 3 % of brex left, and they think Boris deal is BINO sell out so ain’t shifting.
MRP is jibberish. Flawed yougov internet sampling, 650 into 100k makes it flakiest of constituency polls. If you think anything or anyone was spot on in any past so gold standard, they only fluked it.
I think the reminders to all remania that it might prevent the now inevitable Brexit if it tactically votes enough is not the smartest move from Cummings and Boris. However that mistake they have been saved from by tonight’s press joyfully splashing top labour spokesman say we can’t win over their headlines, so remainers won’t even bother to vote.0 -
The Big Mo is the Big Myth.egg said:
But is it momentum that matters?Sean_F said:
-30 is still a long way behind -14.Time_to_Leave said:Hmmm
0 -
So Labour doing better, Tories worse but Ok, and LDs cratering while SNP canter.Time_to_Leave said:Eek. Edit - wait, no, that’s a happy (if nervous) face.
0 -
Does anyone know what the Tory emoji actually is? I don’t speak “yoof”.0
-
Guessing 14% leadTime_to_Leave said:Eek. Edit - wait, no, that’s a happy (if nervous) face.
0 -
Every single citizen in this country should watch this
https://twitter.com/drbenwhite/status/1204309488808976384?s=20
1 -
I interpreted this as relieved.Time_to_Leave said:Does anyone know what the Tory emoji actually is? I don’t speak “yoof”.
2 -
Sh! McDonnell-band is listening!bigjohnowls said:
There not Communists son, it was just another lie put out by that idiot who refused to look at the photo of a suffering 4 yr old and then people realised his lack of empathy made him unfit to be PM.wooliedyed said:Why did the communists win dad?
Well son, legend has it a man put a phone in his pocket
But Dad you called them Communists didnt people believe you Dad?0 -
Maybe. Is the Labour one happier than last time or is it just “no change”?RobD said:
I interpreted this as relieved.Time_to_Leave said:Does anyone know what the Tory emoji actually is? I don’t speak “yoof”.
Guess we’ll find out.
0 -
It means relieved, so probably down but not by much.Time_to_Leave said:Does anyone know what the Tory emoji actually is? I don’t speak “yoof”.
1 -
Happy/relieved ?Time_to_Leave said:Does anyone know what the Tory emoji actually is? I don’t speak “yoof”.
1 -
If there was no change surely they woudl still be very upset, rather than just flat?Time_to_Leave said:
Maybe. Is the Labour one happier than last time or is it just “no change”?RobD said:
I interpreted this as relieved.Time_to_Leave said:Does anyone know what the Tory emoji actually is? I don’t speak “yoof”.
Guess we’ll find out.1 -
Johnson's massive personality flaws impact on his ability to do the job of Prime Minister. Mrs Ratcliffe lays testament to that notion. Either by conspiracy or cock-up Johnson has the opportunity to inflict as much damage on our economy (no deal anyone?) and way of life as does Corbyn.Byronic said:
The only reason you're able to spout this drivel is because you think Corbyn cannot win. If you thought he could win, I imagine his "dangerous nonsense" would become a lot more menacing than Boris' personality flaws.Mexicanpete said:
In some respects Johnson is worse.AlastairMeeks said:
I’m not voting for either. But don’t tell me that voting for a man who has already led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy and whose only policy is to push the country into the backwaters to endure the equivalent of a severe recession while dogwhistling about sending immigrants home is a safe bet. Be that on your conscience.Byronic said:
No one hascience.AlastairMeeks said:
You see only Scylla while a large part of the electorate is staring with horror at sailing into Charybdis.Byronic said:
Corbyn's favourability is climbing fast, exactly as happened in 2017.Time_to_Leave said:
No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.Byronic said:
Another pointer to HPTime_to_Leave said:Hmmm
The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.
This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.
I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.
At least Corbyn has believed in his dangerous nonsense for a lifetime. Johnson by contrast claims an epiphany over the UK's role in Europe at the very moment it looked like doing so would bolster his career.
The paradox, of course, is that if enough people think and act like you, then Corbyn WILL win, or will at least become PM in some form - and then the dangerous nonsense becomes reality.
Apart from the initial insult, good post!0 -
kle4 said:
I had a YouGov survey in my email from 10 hours ago about voting intention, I fear I have lost my chance to contribute to the glorious MRP, damn it.
I just completed one for them - no doubt too late for the MPR so no one can accuse me of skewing the results!
0 -
The polling booths open in just 36 hours' time - it's surprising how few polls we have seen yesterday and today.0
-
Is he one of the Tiggers?Sean_F said:
I think that's right. I'll be voting for Gavin Shuker in Luton South (which is safe Labour) but helping the Conservatives in Southgate.Pulpstar said:The problem with Boris is that he believes in precisely nothing. The bigger problem with Corbyn is that he does
0 -
"I think she's dead..."WhisperingOracle said:
What is that Labour face exactly ? He looks asleep.RobD said:
What a tease.Slackbladder said:
"Noo I'm not...."2 -
I would say 73.5% myself and 68.5%bigjohnowls said:Shouldnt posters who state "Get a fucking grip and learn some basic mathematics"
Learn some basic Maths
Alistair states 1.36 is a 72% chance
Its 73.6% chance
0/10 see me0 -
I think we've reached the limits of the knowledge of the PB hive mind - emoji analysis.2
-
I’ve been asked to contribute to one on Thursday morning. I understand it’s a 40m sample set. May help with the results, though it does include some data that was posted in weeks ago so may be off.peter_from_putney said:The polling booths open in just 36 hours' time - it's surprising how few polls we have seen yesterday and today.
0 -
So there is not much change, in line with the non movement in polls for the past 2 weeks.brokenwheel said:Compared to the first MRP;
https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/11997880814376427520 -
😅 Grinning Face With SweatTime_to_Leave said:Does anyone know what the Tory emoji actually is? I don’t speak “yoof”.
Has the same grin and eyes as 😄 Grinning Face With Smiling Eyes but with a single, blue bead of sweat, usually over its left eye. Intended to depict nerves or discomfort but commonly used to express a close call, as if saying Whew! and wiping sweat from the forehead.
Grinning Face With Sweat was approved as part of Unicode 6.0 in 2010 under the name “Smiling Face With Open Mouth and Cold Sweat” and added to Emoji 1.0 in 2015.
https://emojipedia.org/smiling-face-with-open-mouth-and-cold-sweat/
4 -
You can move to Scotland Sean, Shangri La and in the EU as well, tout suiteByronic said:
Corbyn's favourability is climbing fast, exactly as happened in 2017.Time_to_Leave said:
No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.Byronic said:
Another pointer to HPTime_to_Leave said:Hmmm
The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.
This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.
I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.0 -
Will be a glut tomorrow!peter_from_putney said:The polling booths open in just 36 hours' time - it's surprising how few polls we have seen yesterday and today.
0 -
OK, I normally lurk, but time to delurk for the election.
Like many I have been very conflicted, I am a remainer, I dislike both Corbyn and Johnson, and considered LibDems, but they failed to make any breakthrough.
So , again, like many, I have had to vote for the least bad, Johnson.
Rejoining is always a possibility, but the damage from Labour headed by Corbyn could take longer than my life expectancy.
On the NHS, my personal experience is generally very good. My wife once rushed me in to A and E with severe abdominal pains, I was taken straight to the front of the queue, and was on Morphine within 10 mins, a week in hospital and was treated well.
A follow up visit ended up with another unplanned week in hospital, again they looked after me well.
One comment was that the mens surgical ward was partly occupied by dementia patients who had been admitted because the homes they were in could not cope, the consultants who came round promptly threw them out back to the nursing homes.
Final experience comment, they should really control the use of mobile phones on the wards, people were talking all night and disturbing every one else.0 -
😑 Expressionless FaceTime_to_Leave said:
Maybe. Is the Labour one happier than last time or is it just “no change”?RobD said:
I interpreted this as relieved.Time_to_Leave said:Does anyone know what the Tory emoji actually is? I don’t speak “yoof”.
Guess we’ll find out.
A yellow face with flat, closed eyes and mouth. May convey a sense of frustration or annoyance more intense than suggested by 😐 Neutral Face, as if taking a moment to collect itself.
Expressionless Face was approved as part of Unicode 6.1 in 2012 and added to Emoji 1.0 in 2015.
2 -
I love this website. Someone always knows.IshmaelZ said:
😅 Grinning Face With SweatTime_to_Leave said:Does anyone know what the Tory emoji actually is? I don’t speak “yoof”.
Has the same grin and eyes as 😄 Grinning Face With Smiling Eyes but with a single, blue bead of sweat, usually over its left eye. Intended to depict nerves or discomfort but commonly used to express a close call, as if saying Whew! and wiping sweat from the forehead.
Grinning Face With Sweat was approved as part of Unicode 6.0 in 2010 under the name “Smiling Face With Open Mouth and Cold Sweat” and added to Emoji 1.0 in 2015.
https://emojipedia.org/smiling-face-with-open-mouth-and-cold-sweat/
1 -
Has he been told the MRP data... or the MRP results?IshmaelZ said:
Is this the twit that did this last time? Why don't they blacklist him?Slackbladder said:0 -
I have to say I'm haven't been quite convinced of Yougov's MRP this time round, but nor do I think we're already nailed on for a hung parliament.speedy2 said:
So there is not much change, in line with the non movement in polls for the past 2 weeks.brokenwheel said:Compared to the first MRP;
https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/11997880814376427520 -
I think we've reached the limits of the knowledge of the PB hive mind - emoji analysis.3
-
For anyone who cares these are the Impeachment acticles in detail by the Democrats against Trump:
https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/democrats.judiciary.house.gov/files/documents/Articles of Impeachment.pdf
It's very thin, only 9 pages long and only 2 Articles.
The article of Obstuction of Congress is an unusual thing, since Impeachment is a political act and obstructing an institution that it's popularity is frequently less than 20% for decades will not move votes in favour of Impeachment and Removal.0 -
Hovering cursor gives:
Con = Smile with open mouth and cold sweat
Lab = Expressionless0
This discussion has been closed.