Not a good look for Jonathan Ainsworth on Victoria on BBC
In fact a car crash
You would say that wouldn't you
Only when it is true
Only in your selectively true world, stop pretending you're impartial
I am not impartial when it comes to Corbyn
A lot of focus always goes on Corbyn, but let`s remember who is behind him: McDonnell, Abbott, Pidcock, RLB, Burgon, Butler etc etc. They`ve all got to go in my opinion.
How diferrent the Lab front bench would look with Cooper, Benn, Miliband, Kinnock, Nandy, Flint ...
So if the bloody fools had not excluded themselves, we might be in a better place.
Not a good look for Jonathan Ainsworth on Victoria on BBC
In fact a car crash
You would say that wouldn't you
Only when it is true
Only in your selectively true world, stop pretending you're impartial
I am not impartial when it comes to Corbyn
A lot of focus always goes on Corbyn, but let`s remember who is behind him: McDonnell, Abbott, Pidcock, RLB, Burgon, Butler etc etc. They`ve all got to go in my opinion.
How diferrent the Lab front bench would look with Cooper, Benn, Miliband, Kinnock, Nandy, Flint ...
To illustrate the point, Siberia's fastest growth industry over the last couple of years has been the export to China of mammoth ivory - which had been buried under permafrost for tens of thousands of years.
It’s a 100 year project (credibly) to turn it around.
I just don’t see it as being credible the West can “stop” before 2050-2060 and probably 2080-2090 for the developing world. Anything more aggressive (which won’t happen) and we’d be facing societal collapse and insurrection, and probably even more deaths.
Therefore, we are going to have to take an awful lot of nasty shit on the chin, and mitigate it.
An aggressive program now is going to be far less painful than 'taking it on the chin'. And I think your estimates of our ability to transition to zero carbon energy are wildly pessimistic and unambitious, particularly for the developing world.
Jonathan Ashworth says the person he was talking to was a Tory called Greg Barker. Is this the same Greg Barker who was Tory MP for Bexhill and Battle until recently?
To illustrate the point, Siberia's fastest growth industry over the last couple of years has been the export to China of mammoth ivory - which had been buried under permafrost for tens of thousands of years.
It’s a 100 year project (credibly) to turn it around.
I just don’t see it as being credible the West can “stop” before 2050-2060 and probably 2080-2090 for the developing world. Anything more aggressive (which won’t happen) and we’d be facing societal collapse and insurrection, and probably even more deaths.
Therefore, we are going to have to take an awful lot of nasty shit on the chin, and mitigate it.
An aggressive program now is going to be far less painful than 'taking it on the chin'. And I think your estimates of our ability to transition to zero carbon energy are wildly pessimistic and unambitious, particularly for the developing world.
An aggressive program by who? If you mean just us it won't make the slightest bit of difference. If you mean everyone including China and the USA it could.
Where we can help is leading the way in developing clean technologies and encouraging China to follow suit. Simply shutting down our manufacturing and exporting our emissions to China then importing finished products claiming we are net zero is worse than bullshit.
Our energy is far cleaner already than China's. Encouraging less energy consumption here but more in China then flying goods here is self defeating.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
Why don't you fuck off?
That is not acceptable to any poster
No you know what, I don't give a toss anymore. I've tried to be pleasant to people here and they just throw it back in my face. To be fair to you you've always been pleasant but others haven't and it's right they get called out for it.
There are ways of doing it
And I've tried being pleasant and people don't respect me, so why should I respect them?
Like I said, you've always been pleasant to me so I have treated you in the same way - but others have not. And I am not going to change what I do or so, thank you.
Thats probably because youve become such a PB bore.
A period of silence from you would be most welcome...
My view is that I don't think it's right to record a private conversation and then make it public.
I agree, why the hell was he recording it in the first place?
To me it seems like a drunken conversation I've had loads of times where I've ranted and raved about how shit Corbyn is
But you are not I imagine the Shadow Secretary of State for Health.
Both leaders are people about whom their close colleagues have serious reservations. That is something which the voters ought to be aware of.
Having watched the leaders on TV I wish I could vote for either a party led by Nicola Sturgeon or one led by Adam Price. TBH, I think of the two Ms Sturgeon shades it. Ms Swinson seems, so far, to be an example of the Peter Principle. Rather a pity that someone from the 2017 wasn't chosen, who couldn't have the cruelties of the early Coalition years hung round her neck.
All voices should be welcome on PB and a little less shooting the messenger wouldn't go amiss. Tempers may be high but if you have nothing nice to say draw a deep breath and move on.
To illustrate the point, Siberia's fastest growth industry over the last couple of years has been the export to China of mammoth ivory - which had been buried under permafrost for tens of thousands of years.
It’s a 100 year project (credibly) to turn it around.
I just don’t see it as being credible the West can “stop” before 2050-2060 and probably 2080-2090 for the developing world. Anything more aggressive (which won’t happen) and we’d be facing societal collapse and insurrection, and probably even more deaths.
Therefore, we are going to have to take an awful lot of nasty shit on the chin, and mitigate it.
I don't know if it's been reported here, but on Sunday the Uk generated over 40% of its electricity from wind. Add in solar and hydro and you get close to 50%. Once you take on board the 20-odd percent from nuclear, well over 70% of UK energy came from non-carbon sources. The growth in renewables has been frankly aatonishing and there is no reason to think that this growth will abate. Granted, Sunday is a low-demand day, but pretty encouraging, no?
My view is that I don't think it's right to record a private conversation and then make it public.
I agree, why the hell was he recording it in the first place?
To me it seems like a drunken conversation I've had loads of times where I've ranted and raved about how shit Corbyn is
But you are not I imagine the Shadow Secretary of State for Health.
Both leaders are people about whom their close colleagues have serious reservations. That is something which the voters ought to be aware of.
I think recording conversations with your friends and then selectively leaking them to the press is pretty low. I wouldn't do that to my friends.
I agree. I wouldn’t do that to my friends.
Nonetheless is this what Ashworth thinks about Corbyn? It is pretty worrying for a potential Labour Cabinet Minister to be saying, apparently, that the Civil Service will do whatever's necessary to protect the country from the PM because the latter’s a security risk.
All voices should be welcome on PB and a little less shooting the messenger wouldn't go amiss. Tempers may be high but if you have nothing nice to say draw a deep breath and move on.
Don’t worry. We’ll be back to bitching about pineapple pizza before long.
FYI for those interested in my live data scraping for the big night. In addition to spreadsheet, I intend to have the following two charts be live updated...
One showing current seat results vs what YouGov MRP predicted for those seats, and the current result (solid line) + what YouGov predicts for remaining undeclared seats* (dotted line)
*ordered in estimated declaration time
Hopefully, we should see quite quickly how well YouGov MRP is doing this time and what that means for the final result.
All voices should be welcome on PB and a little less shooting the messenger wouldn't go amiss. Tempers may be high but if you have nothing nice to say draw a deep breath and move on.
In that spirit, I appreciated your polite response to my long post yesterday about “guests” and my parents’ experiences.
Jeremy Corbyn's chances of winning the election are “dire”, and the party's reception in some parts of the country “abysmal”, the shadow health secretary has claimed.
In an explosive recording leaked this morning, Jonathan Ashworth is heard telling a friend to “stop worrying” because a Labour victory is “not going...
All voices should be welcome on PB and a little less shooting the messenger wouldn't go amiss. Tempers may be high but if you have nothing nice to say draw a deep breath and move on.
Don’t worry. We’ll be back to bitching about pineapple pizza before long.
FYI for those interested in my live data scraping for the big night. In addition to spreadsheet, I intend to have the following two charts be live updated...
One showing current seat results vs what YouGov MRP predicted for those seats, and the second current result + what YouGov predicts for remaining undeclared seats (ordered in estimated declaration time).
Hopefully, we should see quite quickly how well YouGov MRP is doing this time and what that means for the final result.
Wonderful! One thing I really want to see is a model that updates with every declaration, so you can watch the seat projection change, and the confidence interval get smaller, as the night goes on.
All voices should be welcome on PB and a little less shooting the messenger wouldn't go amiss. Tempers may be high but if you have nothing nice to say draw a deep breath and move on.
Don’t worry. We’ll be back to bitching about pineapple pizza before long.
To illustrate the point, Siberia's fastest growth industry over the last couple of years has been the export to China of mammoth ivory - which had been buried under permafrost for tens of thousands of years.
It’s a 100 year project (credibly) to turn it around.
I just don’t see it as being credible the West can “stop” before 2050-2060 and probably 2080-2090 for the developing world. Anything more aggressive (which won’t happen) and we’d be facing societal collapse and insurrection, and probably even more deaths.
Therefore, we are going to have to take an awful lot of nasty shit on the chin, and mitigate it.
I don't know if it's been reported here, but on Sunday the Uk generated over 40% of its electricity from wind. Add in solar and hydro and you get close to 50%. Once you take on board the 20-odd percent from nuclear, well over 70% of UK energy came from non-carbon sources. The growth in renewables has been frankly aatonishing and there is no reason to think that this growth will abate. Granted, Sunday is a low-demand day, but pretty encouraging, no?
Agreed. It's a shame people won't accept it but the UK is doing a fantastic world beating job at switching away from carbon. And helping to develop clean affordable alternatives to generate energy.
If we produced more in this country and flew in less our carbon emissions might go up a bit or take longer to come down to zero but our net contribution to global carbon would be an improvement.
How much carbon is generated in China, pumped into the atmosphere then the output of it flown here generating more carbon?
FYI for those interested in my live data scraping for the big night. In addition to spreadsheet, I intend to have the following two charts be live updated...
One showing current seat results vs what YouGov MRP predicted for those seats, and the second current result + what YouGov predicts for remaining undeclared seats (ordered in estimated declaration time).
Hopefully, we should see quite quickly how well YouGov MRP is doing this time and what that means for the final result.
Wonderful! One thing I really want to see is a model that updates with every declaration, so you can watch the seat projection change, and the confidence interval get smaller, as the night goes on.
I think I can do that too....As effectively where the dotted lines end up are the "prediction", because it is actual result plus MRP for whats left.
I do all this nonsense and we will probably find MRP is absolute garbage!!!
Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.
Ooh exciting. I shall get some whisky and ice ready. Though do I remember that David is no longer politically active because of #proroguegate?
Who will be the 2019 equivalent? MarqueeMark saying that Totnes is going yellow after all? Or the Horse person throwing in the towel?
Yup David and myself are hors de combat.
It would be interesting to read more of a personal piece from either of you on what it's been like to go from being so politically engaged that you were canvassers to sitting on the sidelines of an election. Because if we are honest being a canvasser is a pretty fringe activity.
Will your heart be a flutter at 9.59 for any reason other than your betfair account? Or will you be at the local Odeon watching Cats?
It is always for the betting.
It is a pity that they can’t both lose.
If Corbyn had said what Johnson said yesterday about migrants but about the Jews he would have been rightly condemned.
Both leaders are turning their parties into sewers.
I look at the Tory manifesto pledge to weaken the judiciary and think eventually one day a Corbynite will win and the moment we need a strong judiciary to stop the unlawful seizure of assets they’ll have been castrated by a cheering Tory party.
100% agree.
The best result is a Hung Parliament which Corbyn can resign and we can have a Government with a new face of Labour that with LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens, a decent percentage of the population has voted for. Then we can have electoral reform and actually have a working democracy again.
A Hung Parliament is literally the best outcome for PR.
One should always expect Labour betrayal though.
A benevolent artificial super intelligence taking over the world is a much more likely route to positive political change in the UK.
My view is that I don't think it's right to record a private conversation and then make it public.
I agree, why the hell was he recording it in the first place?
To me it seems like a drunken conversation I've had loads of times where I've ranted and raved about how shit Corbyn is
But you are not I imagine the Shadow Secretary of State for Health.
Both leaders are people about whom their close colleagues have serious reservations. That is something which the voters ought to be aware of.
I think recording conversations with your friends and then selectively leaking them to the press is pretty low. I wouldn't do that to my friends.
I agree. I wouldn’t do that to my friends.
Nonetheless is this what Ashworth thinks about Corbyn? It is pretty worrying for a potential Labour Cabinet Minister to be saying, apparently, that the Civil Service will do whatever's necessary to protect the country from the PM because the latter’s a security risk.
And if so that is something voters should know.
Yes they bloody shoud know
Mind you, they should have been aware of that already
Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.
Ooh exciting. I shall get some whisky and ice ready. Though do I remember that David is no longer politically active because of #proroguegate?
Who will be the 2019 equivalent? MarqueeMark saying that Totnes is going yellow after all? Or the Horse person throwing in the towel?
Yup David and myself are hors de combat.
It would be interesting to read more of a personal piece from either of you on what it's been like to go from being so politically engaged that you were canvassers to sitting on the sidelines of an election. Because if we are honest being a canvasser is a pretty fringe activity.
Will your heart be a flutter at 9.59 for any reason other than your betfair account? Or will you be at the local Odeon watching Cats?
It is always for the betting.
It is a pity that they can’t both lose.
If Corbyn had said what Johnson said yesterday about migrants but about the Jews he would have been rightly condemned.
Both leaders are turning their parties into sewers.
I look at the Tory manifesto pledge to weaken the judiciary and think eventually one day a Corbynite will win and the moment we need a strong judiciary to stop the unlawful seizure of assets they’ll have been castrated by a cheering Tory party.
100% agree.
The best result is a Hung Parliament which Corbyn can resign and we can have a Government with a new face of Labour that with LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens, a decent percentage of the population has voted for. Then we can have electoral reform and actually have a working democracy again.
A Hung Parliament is literally the best outcome for PR.
One should always expect Labour betrayal though.
A benevolent artificial super intelligence taking over the world is a much more likely route to positive political change in the UK.
In this case though, Labour is going to have literally no power to do anything. But the LDs and SNP will have a lot. If they want to stop Labour and the Tories for good, they'll force PR.
Not a good look for Jonathan Ainsworth on Victoria on BBC
In fact a car crash
You would say that wouldn't you
Only when it is true
Only in your selectively true world, stop pretending you're impartial
I am not impartial when it comes to Corbyn
A lot of focus always goes on Corbyn, but let`s remember who is behind him: McDonnell, Abbott, Pidcock, RLB, Burgon, Butler etc etc. They`ve all got to go in my opinion.
How diferrent the Lab front bench would look with Cooper, Benn, Miliband, Kinnock, Nandy, Flint ...
Well, quite. [Pauses for brief primal scream in frustration]. But Labour has always had its quota of fringe loonies. Why, in retrospect, did I not vote Lab in 2015? It wasn't because of Ed Miliband's inability to eat a sandwich. It's because I was horrified by the nutters behind him, in yhe PLP and the party at large. Just as many Labour votets are horrified by the likes of Mark Francois. If a party could clean out its loonies it would become much more attractive. But would have no activist base. I don't really have a solution to this.
FYI for those interested in my live data scraping for the big night. In addition to spreadsheet, I intend to have the following two charts be live updated...
All voices should be welcome on PB and a little less shooting the messenger wouldn't go amiss. Tempers may be high but if you have nothing nice to say draw a deep breath and move on.
Amen. One of the great strengths of PB.com is the diversity of opinions and perspectives. While the truth may be absolute, our perception of it is relative. If there are posters whose posts you find repetitive or tedious (a particular bugbear, "How could anyone thinking of voting for Johnson/Corbyn possibly live with themselves when X, Y, Z"scroll past them - don't waste your time and theirs telling them to post elsewhere.
FYI for those interested in my live data scraping for the big night. In addition to spreadsheet, I intend to have the following two charts be live updated...
One showing current seat results vs what YouGov MRP predicted for those seats, and the second current result + what YouGov predicts for remaining undeclared seats (ordered in estimated declaration time).
Hopefully, we should see quite quickly how well YouGov MRP is doing this time and what that means for the final result.
Wonderful! One thing I really want to see is a model that updates with every declaration, so you can watch the seat projection change, and the confidence interval get smaller, as the night goes on.
I think I can do that too....As effectively where the dotted lines end up are the "prediction", because it is actual result plus MRP for whats left.
I do all this nonsense and we will probably find MRP is absolute garbage!!!
That’s half what I want (not good enough, Mr Urquhart!), as the model doesn’t react to the results.
Regardless of what you think of the Yoon to Nat narrative, this is a devastatingly accurate description of the SCon campaign. The SCons will be an interesting experiment in how long a party (sub branch) can operate without policies, ideas or aspirations.
'Step forward the Conservative and Unionist Party. Campaign leaflets from the SNP and Conservative candidates arrived recently at our house near Loch Ness. The SNP’s Drew Hendry spelt out what he is doing at present and intends to do if elected. On the other hand, the Conservative candidate, Fiona Fawcett, told me only that she doesn’t want another referendum and — for that reason alone — I should give her my vote.
Not a word on any national, regional or local policy. Not a word on Brexit. Not a word on what she personally stands for. I tweeted to point out the contrast and within two hours Dr Fawcett had blocked me. One look at her website does reveal what her priorities would be if elected, and shows that she has an admirable CV in both a professional and a voluntary capacity. I have no animosity towards her. However, I do have lots of questions for Dr Fawcett and other Scottish Tories, despite their keenness to avoid communicating with me. They are doing this all over Scotland. Do they realise that campaign literature of the sort she sent is an insult to our intelligence? Do they think avoiding talking about Brexit just makes it go away? Are they really comfortable campaigning for a man who lies as easily as he breathes, and whose idea of scrutiny is talking to the camera without an interviewer?'
Apparently 40 is the age when people change from being more likely to vote Labour to being more likely to vote Conservative, compared to 47 at the last election. (Maybe that figure has changed slightly as a result of the election campaign).
My view is that I don't think it's right to record a private conversation and then make it public.
I agree, why the hell was he recording it in the first place?
To me it seems like a drunken conversation I've had loads of times where I've ranted and raved about how shit Corbyn is
But you are not I imagine the Shadow Secretary of State for Health.
Both leaders are people about whom their close colleagues have serious reservations. That is something which the voters ought to be aware of.
I think recording conversations with your friends and then selectively leaking them to the press is pretty low. I wouldn't do that to my friends.
I agree. I wouldn’t do that to my friends.
Nonetheless is this what Ashworth thinks about Corbyn? It is pretty worrying for a potential Labour Cabinet Minister to be saying, apparently, that the Civil Service will do whatever's necessary to protect the country from the PM because the latter’s a security risk.
And if so that is something voters should know.
Yes they bloody shoud know
Mind you, they should have been aware of that already
In the scales of national significance it is a bit higher than C4's lengthy shock revelation last night that the Brexit party in Hartlepool includes a couple of disgusting layabout racist losers.
"Labour’s own Shadow Cabinet Health Minister hopes they lose and they can get rid of Jeremy Corbyn. In the event that Corbyn gets into Downing Street, he hopes the Civil Service machine would be able to safeguard national security from Prime Minister Corbyn. Has there ever been a situation where Labour frontbenchers hope their party loses because their leader is a risk to national security?"
Not a good look for Jonathan Ainsworth on Victoria on BBC
In fact a car crash
You would say that wouldn't you
Only when it is true
Only in your selectively true world, stop pretending you're impartial
I am not impartial when it comes to Corbyn
A lot of focus always goes on Corbyn, but let`s remember who is behind him: McDonnell, Abbott, Pidcock, RLB, Burgon, Butler etc etc. They`ve all got to go in my opinion.
How diferrent the Lab front bench would look with Cooper, Benn, Miliband, Kinnock, Nandy, Flint ...
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
Why don't you fuck off?
That is not acceptable to any poster
No you know what, I don't give a toss anymore. I've tried to be pleasant to people here and they just throw it back in my face. To be fair to you you've always been pleasant but others haven't and it's right they get called out for it.
There are ways of doing it
And I've tried being pleasant and people don't respect me, so why should I respect them?
Like I said, you've always been pleasant to me so I have treated you in the same way - but others have not. And I am not going to change what I do or so, thank you.
If I were you I’d take a break from the site for a few hours.
"Labour’s own Shadow Cabinet Health Minister hopes they lose and they can get rid of Jeremy Corbyn. In the event that Corbyn gets into Downing Street, he hopes the Civil Service machine would be able to safeguard national security from Prime Minister Corbyn. Has there ever been a situation where Labour frontbenchers hope their party loses because their leader is a risk to national security?"
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
Why don't you fuck off?
That is not acceptable to any poster
No you know what, I don't give a toss anymore. I've tried to be pleasant to people here and they just throw it back in my face. To be fair to you you've always been pleasant but others haven't and it's right they get called out for it.
There are ways of doing it
And I've tried being pleasant and people don't respect me, so why should I respect them?
Like I said, you've always been pleasant to me so I have treated you in the same way - but others have not. And I am not going to change what I do or so, thank you.
Too right , if they hand it out they should expect it back and not be the snowflakes we see on here. They don't like it though.
To illustrate the point, Siberia's fastest growth industry over the last couple of years has been the export to China of mammoth ivory - which had been buried under permafrost for tens of thousands of years.
It’s a 100 year project (credibly) to turn it around.
I just don’t see it as being credible the West can “stop” before 2050-2060 and probably 2080-2090 for the developing world. Anything more aggressive (which won’t happen) and we’d be facing societal collapse and insurrection, and probably even more deaths.
Therefore, we are going to have to take an awful lot of nasty shit on the chin, and mitigate it.
I don't know if it's been reported here, but on Sunday the Uk generated over 40% of its electricity from wind. Add in solar and hydro and you get close to 50%. Once you take on board the 20-odd percent from nuclear, well over 70% of UK energy came from non-carbon sources. The growth in renewables has been frankly aatonishing and there is no reason to think that this growth will abate. Granted, Sunday is a low-demand day, but pretty encouraging, no?
Very encouraging, but it will take 20-30 years to fully decarbonise transport and residential property.
Energy production is a big part of it but only part of it.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
Why don't you fuck off?
I rather hope you might.
So dull.
Tories looking to close down opinions that don't fit their twisted ideals I see.
I am sure many are disappointed that I will stay around post the election
Why? What business is it of theirs? The only people whose opinion matters is Mike, Robert and (possibly) TSE. In fact, historically, posters telling others to "F*** off" usually get a ban themselves.
"Labour’s own Shadow Cabinet Health Minister hopes they lose and they can get rid of Jeremy Corbyn. In the event that Corbyn gets into Downing Street, he hopes the Civil Service machine would be able to safeguard national security from Prime Minister Corbyn. Has there ever been a situation where Labour frontbenchers hope their party loses because their leader is a risk to national security?"
Leaflet count: one each from Labour and Conservatives through the post. Both candidates were schooled locally, and probably privately since the schools are coyly not named. Maybe they were classmates.
Both the red and blue candidates detail their local priorities: crime, broadband, children and "our" NHS on the one hand; homes, "our" NHS, crime and children on the other.
It is lucky the leaflets come in different colours or you could hardly tell them apart.
If I'm not even allowed to call out people for being nasty, trolling or just being downright rude then what's the point? You'll just end up with more of an echo chamber than I am sure you want.
I am happy to apologise for the bad language as I'm sure it's against the rules. But I will not apologise for calling people out and being rude to me and getting away with it repeatedly. I was prepared to let it slide but no longer.
FYI for those interested in my live data scraping for the big night. In addition to spreadsheet, I intend to have the following two charts be live updated...
One showing current seat results vs what YouGov MRP predicted for those seats, and the current result (solid line) + what YouGov predicts for remaining undeclared seats* (dotted line)
*ordered in estimated declaration time
Hopefully, we should see quite quickly how well YouGov MRP is doing this time and what that means for the final result.
Thank you for doing this. I wouldn’t know where to begin and this looks like by far the most interesting and useful way of following the results.
The Ashworth tape shows two things: 1. Labour knows it will lose. 2. The Tories will pretend to be your friend but will then shit all over you when it suits them. That makes them entirely untrustworthy. It’s good for voters to know both things.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
Why don't you fuck off?
I rather hope you might.
So dull.
Tories looking to close down opinions that don't fit their twisted ideals I see.
Yep.
The misinformation campaign is on a scale about 1000x anything seen before. Mostly, but by no means exclusively, on the Right.
Anyone decent ought to despair at this. We've entered Trump Twilight.
Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.
Ooh exciting. I shall get some whisky and ice ready. Though do I remember that David is no longer politically active because of #proroguegate?
Who will be the 2019 equivalent? MarqueeMark saying that Totnes is going yellow after all? Or the Horse person throwing in the towel?
Yup David and myself are hors de combat.
It would be interesting to read more of a personal piece from either of you on what it's been like to go from being so politically engaged that you were canvassers to sitting on the sidelines of an election. Because if we are honest being a canvasser is a pretty fringe activity.
Will your heart be a flutter at 9.59 for any reason other than your betfair account? Or will you be at the local Odeon watching Cats?
It is always for the betting.
It is a pity that they can’t both lose.
If Corbyn had said what Johnson said yesterday about migrants but about the Jews he would have been rightly condemned.
Both leaders are turning their parties into sewers.
I look at the Tory manifesto pledge to weaken the judiciary and think eventually one day a Corbynite will win and the moment we need a strong judiciary to stop the unlawful seizure of assets they’ll have been castrated by a cheering Tory party.
It is for sure an irony that it’s the ECJ that acts as the ultimate backdrop against the more manic bits of Corbynism. But that is I guess what democracy means.
My personal view is that as with many policy areas, Blair’s reforms of the judiciary were half cocked / complete. I also wouldn’t say no to a written constitution post Brexit to act as a firmer safe guard but the reality is that should be done with consensus, and there ain’t a lot of that around at the moment.
Best of luck with your betting and enjoy the big night (ho ho ho to one and all). I am sufficiently exposed to UK political risk already without signing up with Shadsy. As ever I look forward to seeing the views of all here as the action unfolds (my first time as a non lurker since Obama 2008).
It's all getting a bit Guido Fawkes comment section on here. Can the administrators step in and do some cleaning up, please? A bit like the broken windows theory, things can quickly deteriorate.
On the Ashworth thing, I think that's more of a bubble story, won't have any cut-through.
The Ashworth tape shows two things: 1. Labour knows it will lose. 2. The Tories will pretend to be your friend but will then shit all over you when it suits them. That makes them entirely untrustworthy. It’s good for voters to know both things.
Lets not pretend that other parties will not use people and spit them out
Do I really need to bring up the last Labour government?
FYI for those interested in my live data scraping for the big night. In addition to spreadsheet, I intend to have the following two charts be live updated...
One showing current seat results vs what YouGov MRP predicted for those seats, and the current result (solid line) + what YouGov predicts for remaining undeclared seats* (dotted line)
*ordered in estimated declaration time
Hopefully, we should see quite quickly how well YouGov MRP is doing this time and what that means for the final result.
Thank you for doing this. I wouldn’t know where to begin and this looks like by far the most interesting and useful way of following the results.
If I'm not even allowed to call out people for being nasty, trolling or just being downright rude then what's the point? You'll just end up with more of an echo chamber than I am sure you want.
I am happy to apologise for the bad language as I'm sure it's against the rules. But I will not apologise for calling people out and being rude to me and getting away with it repeatedly. I was prepared to let it slide but no longer.
FYI for those interested in my live data scraping for the big night. In addition to spreadsheet, I intend to have the following two charts be live updated...
One showing current seat results vs what YouGov MRP predicted for those seats, and the second current result + what YouGov predicts for remaining undeclared seats (ordered in estimated declaration time).
Hopefully, we should see quite quickly how well YouGov MRP is doing this time and what that means for the final result.
Wonderful! One thing I really want to see is a model that updates with every declaration, so you can watch the seat projection change, and the confidence interval get smaller, as the night goes on.
I think I can do that too....As effectively where the dotted lines end up are the "prediction", because it is actual result plus MRP for whats left.
I do all this nonsense and we will probably find MRP is absolute garbage!!!
That’s half what I want (not good enough, Mr Urquhart!), as the model doesn’t react to the results.
To be fair, as ever with stats and science, this will be just as interesting and useful (maybe more so) if the MRP is off because we might be able to spot something systemic and act accordingly.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
Why don't you fuck off?
I rather hope you might.
So dull.
Tories looking to close down opinions that don't fit their twisted ideals I see.
Yep.
The misinformation campaign is on a scale about 1000x anything seen before. Mostly, but by no means exclusively, on the Right.
Anyone decent ought to despair at this. We've entered Trump Twilight.
How many hours are there to save the NHS this time?
Comments
And I think your estimates of our ability to transition to zero carbon energy are wildly pessimistic and unambitious, particularly for the developing world.
Both leaders are people about whom their close colleagues have serious reservations. That is something which the voters ought to be aware of.
Where we can help is leading the way in developing clean technologies and encouraging China to follow suit. Simply shutting down our manufacturing and exporting our emissions to China then importing finished products claiming we are net zero is worse than bullshit.
Our energy is far cleaner already than China's. Encouraging less energy consumption here but more in China then flying goods here is self defeating.
A period of silence from you would be most welcome...
Ms Swinson seems, so far, to be an example of the Peter Principle. Rather a pity that someone from the 2017 wasn't chosen, who couldn't have the cruelties of the early Coalition years hung round her neck.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/12/it-makes-me-look-like-a-plonker-jonathan-ashworth-on-leaked-tape/
Nonetheless is this what Ashworth thinks about Corbyn? It is pretty worrying for a potential Labour Cabinet Minister to be saying, apparently, that the Civil Service will do whatever's necessary to protect the country from the PM because the latter’s a security risk.
And if so that is something voters should know.
One showing current seat results vs what YouGov MRP predicted for those seats, and the current result (solid line) + what YouGov predicts for remaining undeclared seats* (dotted line)
*ordered in estimated declaration time
Hopefully, we should see quite quickly how well YouGov MRP is doing this time and what that means for the final result.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/10/general-election-jeremy-corbyn-labour-johnson-brexit-news-latest/
Jeremy Corbyn's chances of winning the election are “dire”, and the party's reception in some parts of the country “abysmal”, the shadow health secretary has claimed.
In an explosive recording leaked this morning, Jonathan Ashworth is heard telling a friend to “stop worrying” because a Labour victory is “not going...
It's a battle for the news agenda between the boy in the NHS, prime Labour territory, and anything the Tories can find to fight it.
I guarantee the Tory was saying "it's dire for us, Corbyn is going to win" and said Johnson is total crap and a liar.
This isn't an uncommon view, even amongst Tory MPs.
It's just Guido being the Government mouthpiece again.
https://order-order.com/2019/12/10/ashworth-civil-service-machine-will-move-quickly-safeguard-national-security-corbyn/
Good god, you are right
Ho! Ho! Ho!
If we produced more in this country and flew in less our carbon emissions might go up a bit or take longer to come down to zero but our net contribution to global carbon would be an improvement.
How much carbon is generated in China, pumped into the atmosphere then the output of it flown here generating more carbon?
I do all this nonsense and we will probably find MRP is absolute garbage!!!
Difficult for his mate, you dont want to ruin a friendship but National Security is very important.
A benevolent artificial super intelligence taking over the world is a much more likely route to positive political change in the UK.
Mind you, they should have been aware of that already
If a party could clean out its loonies it would become much more attractive. But would have no activist base.
I don't really have a solution to this.
And why hide the voice of the person he was talking to?
Out this evening I think?
"Labour’s own Shadow Cabinet Health Minister hopes they lose and they can get rid of Jeremy Corbyn. In the event that Corbyn gets into Downing Street, he hopes the Civil Service machine would be able to safeguard national security from Prime Minister Corbyn. Has there ever been a situation where Labour frontbenchers hope their party loses because their leader is a risk to national security?"
Incendiary
Hilarious,the idiot Ashworth should just put his hands up instead of trying to lie his way out of it.
Energy production is a big part of it but only part of it.
Somebody asked me earlier - 7M views on this one
You destroyed your own credibility a while back
If you're going to act like a twat, I'm going to call you out for it. Deal with it.
Both the red and blue candidates detail their local priorities: crime, broadband, children and "our" NHS on the one hand; homes, "our" NHS, crime and children on the other.
It is lucky the leaflets come in different colours or you could hardly tell them apart.
I am happy to apologise for the bad language as I'm sure it's against the rules. But I will not apologise for calling people out and being rude to me and getting away with it repeatedly. I was prepared to let it slide but no longer.
Just a frustrated trot who has been caught out
1. Labour knows it will lose.
2. The Tories will pretend to be your friend but will then shit all over you when it suits them. That makes them entirely untrustworthy.
It’s good for voters to know both things.
The misinformation campaign is on a scale about 1000x anything seen before. Mostly, but by no means exclusively, on the Right.
Anyone decent ought to despair at this. We've entered Trump Twilight.
My personal view is that as with many policy areas, Blair’s reforms of the judiciary were half cocked / complete. I also wouldn’t say no to a written constitution post Brexit to act as a firmer safe guard but the reality is that should be done with consensus, and there ain’t a lot of that around at the moment.
Best of luck with your betting and enjoy the big night (ho ho ho to one and all). I am sufficiently exposed to UK political risk already without signing up with Shadsy. As ever I look forward to seeing the views of all here as the action unfolds (my first time as a non lurker since Obama 2008).
It doesn't matter anymore, I am simply not prepared to let people be nasty to me and let them get away with it.
I couldn't give a toss what others think about me.
It's a sad election this one. Really sad.
On the Ashworth thing, I think that's more of a bubble story, won't have any cut-through.
Do I really need to bring up the last Labour government?
We are very fortunate to have you.