Despite all this morning's hoo ha which will pass by most voters the last two polls ICM and Comres had Tory leads of just 6 and 7% which is approaching hung parliament territory. Some late swingback to Labour is entirely plausible and could be happening.
Except comres was a swing away from the previous poll for Gina Miller
Sure but if you are a Tory supporter how comfortable are you on leads of 6's and 7's in this volatile final pre-election period? A rotten weather day on Thursday or further traction on the NHS could knock off a couple of points yet.
Well taken in the round and looking at the Welsh poll yesterday I think these are outliers on the tight side. I think a 10 to 12 lead is about the mark
Do we in all honesty think that there may be some questions to ask about Johnson's risk to security after all he has been sacked from several jobs for inappropriate commentary.
Theresa May had to put up with him calling her deal a 'polished turd.' This is the same deal which he is putting in front of the public as being a very good deal, 95% the same as May's deal. What a charlatan.
Do we in all honesty think that there may be some questions to ask about Johnson's risk to security after all he has been sacked from several jobs for inappropriate commentary.
Theresa May had to put up with him calling her deal a 'polished turd.' This is the same deal which he is putting in front of the public as being a very good deal, 95% the same as May's deal. What a charlatan.
95% of the deal wasn't objected to, it was the 5% that was objected to and that has been removed.
If a quality chef offered to cook me a delicious meal but 5% of the ingredients would be cyanide I'd say no I'm not interested. If an alternative chef offered the same dish without the cyanide then I would be.
On the Jonathan Ashworth story, I seem to remember Laura Pidcock getting stick on here for saying she'd never be friends with a Tory. Perhaps Ashworth would have been better off following the same policy?
Fair play to Ashworth. He was at least addressing the questions that millions of people have asked themselves. Is Corbyn to be trusted with the national secrets. He answers that by saying that in his view the Civil Service will respond so quickly that the security threat is minimal. He appears to have worked in Downing Street. The issue for the rest of us is-can we be as sure?
On the Jonathan Ashworth story, I seem to remember Laura Pidcock getting stick on here for saying she'd never be friends with a Tory. Perhaps Ashworth would have been better off following the same policy?
Looking at the ICM methodology nothing really stands out that would suggest that is causing the better than expected Labour vote share .
Indeed if people say 7/10 or below for certainty to vote they then halve that if people say they didn’t vote in 2017.
The one thing though with these turnout indications , many different weighting’s are applied across the pollsters .
There’s no perfect way to weight turnout .
We should also be aware that just because a poll is an outlier doesn’t mean it’s not correct , this works both ways so the Opinium and recent Survation can’t just be discounted .
On the Jonathan Ashworth story, I seem to remember Laura Pidcock getting stick on here for saying she'd never be friends with a Tory. Perhaps Ashworth would have been better off following the same policy?
Fair play to Ashworth. He was at least addressing the questions that millions of people have asked themselves. Is Corbyn to be trusted with the national secrets. He answers that by saying that in his view the Civil Service will respond so quickly that the security threat is minimal. He appears to have worked in Downing Street. The issue for the rest of us is-can we be as sure?
How can it possibly work? The PM has to take final decisions on all sorts of security matters. The idea that the civil service can do this stuff without the PM having the final say seems to me to be utter horseshit. Take a Skripal incident for instance. Or a terrorist threat. Or attack.
And then there is the question of the advisors around Corbyn - Milne and Murray for instance.
Questions have (rightly IMO) been asked about Cummings. There are certain people he has been linked with which worry me now about his closeness to the PM. The same need to be asked about Corbyn and co.
These are legitimate questions and it is very troubling that there are unanswered questions and concerns about both the current PM and his advisors and the Opposition Leader and his advisors.
Ok, I need to get on with proper work. If people have any requests / ideas for improvements to spreadsheets let me know and I will see what I can do. I do have a lot more data in the raw sheets locally on my pc e.g. census data on each seat.
As said previous, I am not trying to provide a real time results service (BBC, Sky etc will do that), more trying to get a handle on the state of play and especially if YouGov is looking correct again and if so what will be the likely final outcome.
On the Jonathan Ashworth story, I seem to remember Laura Pidcock getting stick on here for saying she'd never be friends with a Tory. Perhaps Ashworth would have been better off following the same policy?
John McDonnell said it too.
Shows what narrow minded, unintelligent and unempathetic people they are. Best kept away from power and in the back rooms doing some filing. People like that can do real harm and are limiting their ability to reach solutions.
Is there any chance that this was leaked with Ashworth's aporoval? We know he's not JC's greatest fan. Maybe he doesn't want Vorias PM. Maybe it's some sort of post-election positioning? Any thoughts from anyone better than me at the Kremlinology?
So, how much of this Twitter / FB activity is people just stirring the pot to see what happens?
That's a lot of it. Copypasta to wind up people about bots is very much the current thing. They get their response, that's the kick they're looking for.
Real political warfare social media operations moved on years ago from simple spamming - nowadays they try look more like normal people. Aside from being more convincing, it's also far harder for twitter's automated defences to detect.
On the Jonathan Ashworth story, I seem to remember Laura Pidcock getting stick on here for saying she'd never be friends with a Tory. Perhaps Ashworth would have been better off following the same policy?
The tory certainly would have been
Well, otoh he would have avoided being known henceforward as a grassing, untrustworthy ****, on the other he was able to do a service to the Conservatives by throwing out chaff to distract from the general shiteyness of his own party, so ye pays yer money etc.
You would have thought with the disaster for Corbyn Ashworth story Betfair NOM would be drifting rather than tightening.
1.51 yesterday 3.30pm
1.46 7pm
1.43 8am today
1.41 Now
I think the polls will show a narrowing lead and that a HP is a very real possibility. But I have been saying this all along so have no special insight.
On that note, I better go and do something useful: my VAT returns.
Older readers will remember when MI5 thought Harold Wilson was a spy, and Wilson thought MI5 was plotting against the government. Younger readers can consult the MI5 web site.
One of the most persistent controversies involving the Security Service during the 1970s and 1980s was the so-called "Wilson Plot", in which officers of the Service were accused of having conspired against the Labour Prime Minister Sir Harold Wilson. https://www.mi5.gov.uk/the-wilson-plot
I’ve just found out something worse than this election.
My office Christmas party is tonight. And apparently it’s “Cuban themed”.
Kill me. Kill me now.
Kill the bosses, exile the upper management and seize the means of production. Then proceed to run the company really, really badly for the next sixty odd years.
To break the glass on this recording, one must conclude that the Tories were seriously worried.
Let’s not fall for it.
What you think he wouldn't have released this absolute gold if boy on floorgate hadn't occured?
Releasing secret recordings is something you can really only do once and opens you up to all sorts of responses in future. All Tory off the record briefings are now fair game.
You only go there if you have to. The Tories needed a dead cat.
You would have thought with the disaster for Corbyn Ashworth story Betfair NOM would be drifting rather than tightening.
1.51 yesterday 3.30pm
1.46 7pm
1.43 8am today
1.41 Now
I think the polls will show a narrowing lead and that a HP is a very real possibility. But I have been saying this all along so have no special insight.
On that note, I better go and do something useful: my VAT returns.
I have got those numbers completely wrong!! Was 5.1 then 4.6 then 4.3 now 4.1
On the Jonathan Ashworth story, I seem to remember Laura Pidcock getting stick on here for saying she'd never be friends with a Tory. Perhaps Ashworth would have been better off following the same policy?
John McDonnell said it too.
Well it certainly seems like a sensible strategy now.
On the Jonathan Ashworth story, I seem to remember Laura Pidcock getting stick on here for saying she'd never be friends with a Tory. Perhaps Ashworth would have been better off following the same policy?
John McDonnell said it too.
Shows what narrow minded, unintelligent and unempathetic people they are. Best kept away from power and in the back rooms doing some filing. People like that can do real harm and are limiting their ability to reach solutions.
My partner of nearly 30 years is a Labour party activist. We agree to disagree!
I’ve just found out something worse than this election.
My office Christmas party is tonight. And apparently it’s “Cuban themed”.
Kill me. Kill me now.
Kill the bosses, exile the upper management and seize the means of production. Then proceed to run the company really, really badly for the next sixty odd years.
Or huddle outside in the cold rain, smoking fine cigars.
On the Jonathan Ashworth story, I seem to remember Laura Pidcock getting stick on here for saying she'd never be friends with a Tory. Perhaps Ashworth would have been better off following the same policy?
I guess this well set back cross party working together significantly.
The Tory peer comes across as a twat. Ashworth comes across as naive in being so frank, but it is no surprise he has those views, and just like many Tories reluctantly support Johnson simply because he is not Corbyn, I have no doubt Ashworth prefers Corbyn to Johnson. Most voters already know the Tories are winning, that Corbyn is a liability so it will only change things at the margin, just like yesterdays news. Neither side has won the campaign, hence the numbers are quite similar to a month ago, bar the smaller parties being heavily squeezed.
I’ve just found out something worse than this election.
My office Christmas party is tonight. And apparently it’s “Cuban themed”.
Go dressed as a cigar.
Or dig out that Che Guevara t-shirt from your student days.
As an introvert, my solution to occasions like that is to drink 3 cocktails very quickly, and then slooooow down before reaching a truly embarrassing state.
I think the trouble is that everyone agrees the NHS is overstretched but simply doesn’t trust Corbyn’s Labour to be any better in doing something about it.
I find it bizarre the way the NHS becomes the most important political issue in every election. It is absurd. It is not the case in elections in other European countries. It becomes such a political issue that any chance of sensible steps - as per the very good post by @RobinWiggs (on the previous thread) - become impossible. .....
It's something cared about so much, and venerated too much, that it actually prevents things happening. Sometimes that's very good, but it also hinders improvement and people dare not contemplate it
It has become a sacred cow. A really bad move because it means its faults are not properly addressed and no-one is willing to expend any sort of political capital making changes that would make it better.
It is really dangerous when people or things are seen as indispensable in this way. A proper health system is absolutely essential. The particular form of it is not. Labour's big mistake - and one reason I don't really trust them on this - is that they always confuse the particular form/structure with what is - or should be - the real aim, an affordable efficient health/social care service which provides patients with what they need medically.
Exactly - the sacred cow should be the determination to provide good, affordable health care to all, not the particular method of delivery or funding.
The desire for all healthcare to be delivered to all citizens through a single publicly funded institution is unsustainable. We currently spend about 10% of GDP on healthcare, less than all bar Italy amongst G7 countries and way below the US which spends over 16%. But out of the 10%, 8% comes directly from the government, which is actually higher than anywhere else in the world. I think the forecasts are that due to demographic and economic changes, within a decade or two we're going to have to spend something like 14-15% of GDP on healthcare (and that's just to stand still in terms of the range and quality of provision). There's absolutely no way that an additional 5% or so of GDP can come entirely from government coffers - there's going to have to be a significant contribution from the private sector on both an absolute and proportional basis, either directly or through some form of insurance scheme. But mention those economic realities and the reaction is often that you're proposing to eat babies. We're already lagging behind the rest of the world in terms of the quality and scope of our healthcare and the obsession that everything must revolve around an entirely publicly-funded NHS is part of the problem - not the solution.
I’ve just found out something worse than this election.
My office Christmas party is tonight. And apparently it’s “Cuban themed”.
Kill me. Kill me now.
Kill the bosses, exile the upper management and seize the means of production. Then proceed to run the company really, really badly for the next sixty odd years.
Re earlier, I think this is the wrong way round, but who knows. Bristol West is an urban seat with similarities to Brighton, but the Isle of Wight is the candidate for the more typically green, off-grid grassroots surge this time round.
You would have thought with the disaster for Corbyn Ashworth story Betfair NOM would be drifting rather than tightening.
1.51 yesterday 3.30pm
1.46 7pm
1.43 8am today
1.41 Now
Tory majority currently trading at 1.35 on Betfair.
It was as low as 1.26 yesterday iirc but drifted as a result of "Kid on floor gate".
I've been watching it like a hawk as I'm in a quandary whether to take my cash off the table before exit poll as I'm currently sitting nicely in the green.
Not sure if the response I saw to my post on the Isle of Wight was here or elsewhere, but it's Bristol West and the Isle of Wight that the Greens are hopeful for. They could get one of them.
There is little organisation on the IoW, I would be amazed if they come anywhere near.
Older readers will remember when MI5 thought Harold Wilson was a spy, and Wilson thought MI5 was plotting against the government. Younger readers can consult the MI5 web site.
One of the most persistent controversies involving the Security Service during the 1970s and 1980s was the so-called "Wilson Plot", in which officers of the Service were accused of having conspired against the Labour Prime Minister Sir Harold Wilson. https://www.mi5.gov.uk/the-wilson-plot
Maybe I need a tin hat but I would be surprised if there arent still foreign agents (or at least those heavily influenced by foreign security services) within the first couple of tiers of people in both Tories and Labour and the civil service.
I’ve just found out something worse than this election.
My office Christmas party is tonight. And apparently it’s “Cuban themed”.
Kill me. Kill me now.
Is this pre or post-revolutionary Cuba? Could have quite a big impact on the vibe, I would have thought. My office party is on Friday night. Could be a very painful experience, surrounded by gloating Tory supporters.
Not sure if the response I saw to my post on the Isle of Wight was here or elsewhere, but it's Bristol West and the Isle of Wight that the Greens are hopeful for. They could get one of them.
There is little organisation on the IoW, I would be amazed if they come anywhere near.
Hm, my local Green chums must be spinning then. Have you heard on Bristol West ?
To break the glass on this recording, one must conclude that the Tories were seriously worried.
Let’s not fall for it.
If not now, when?!?
And fall for what? Are you doubting its authenticity, when Ashworth himself has admitted it is genuine?
It’s a dead cat.
It's certainly functioning as one. I suppose it depends if one thinks that Guido is part of the Tory spin machine, and is coordinating with them.
But it was always going to be wheeled out by tomorrow at the latest.
Didn't Guido work for CCHQ at one time? Did that arrangement end?
If you mean Paul Staines, then I don't think he ever worked for them. [but happy to be corrected]
I must be misremembering. Wikipedia says Staines' company advised Boris and the Russian Embassy.
An advertising company specialising in politics. I'd say having Boris and Russia as clients merely shows they'll work for anyone with a keen interest in lying to the public.
I remember that. Robin Cook was the main politician involved in it IIRC. One of the parents was a Labour supporter, the other a Tory supporter. And they disagreed about whether the photo should have been used.
I’ve just found out something worse than this election.
My office Christmas party is tonight. And apparently it’s “Cuban themed”.
Kill me. Kill me now.
Kill the bosses, exile the upper management and seize the means of production. Then proceed to run the company really, really badly for the next sixty odd years.
I remember that. Robin Cook was the main politician involved in it IIRC. One of the parents was a Labour supporter, the other a Tory supporter. And they disagreed about whether the photo should have been used.
To break the glass on this recording, one must conclude that the Tories were seriously worried.
Let’s not fall for it.
What you think he wouldn't have released this absolute gold if boy on floorgate hadn't occured?
Releasing secret recordings is something you can really only do once and opens you up to all sorts of responses in future. All Tory off the record briefings are now fair game.
You only go there if you have to. The Tories needed a dead cat.
Yes, the lengths the Tories are going to to distract from Floorgate are extraordinary. Personally, I thought the negative effects on Boris would be negligible, but they clearly think otherwise. They must fear this is Dementia Tax II.
I’ve just found out something worse than this election.
My office Christmas party is tonight. And apparently it’s “Cuban themed”.
Kill me. Kill me now.
This works.
"I wish I'd known sooner. But, alas, I have a prior engagement. Look forward to the photos, guys!"
You can thank me later.
And if Casino has already agreed to attend before the Cuban revelation... Is there a polite form of apology for that ?
Now that really would be useful.
Yes.
"I'm so sorry. My baby daughter has not been well and it's been very tiring for my wife. So I really need to be home to support her and do my bit. I'm sure you understand."
(PS This one - without the word "baby" - works for quite a long time, especially if you have more than one child. I managed to get out of most works dos for about two decades that way.)
I see Yorkshire Post still debunking Tory lies about the 4 year old boy
BREAKING: Sheree Jenner-Hepburn claims she was hacked. Knows not a soul in Leeds, she says. So, that 'good friend' that was used to debunk our story was - according to her - a fabrication.
Elizabeth Warren helped company to avoid clearing up toxic waste, document reveals https://t.co/lseAyqZoqB
Yeah, cheerio pocohontas
Racist slurs. Tasteful.
White woman invents minority back ground in order to take advantage in affirmative action career advancement. This was later shown to be entirely invented.
Yet someone pointing this out is the racist. Get in the sea.
I think these next three days are crucial, including switchers on the day.
My view is that we're currently on about +10-20, and we could still get either a heavier Tory maj than that, or a hung parliament.
That is exactly where I am. Worth bearing in mind that both in 1992 and 2017 (and indeed in every election in my lifetime) the leader satisfaction ratings correctly called the result, and in 2019 those point to a Tory lead of 6-7pp, on the cusp of a hung parliament.
The respective leader ratings point to a bigger lead than that.
No they don't. Have you run the regression? The prediction for 2019 based on 10 data points from 1979 to 2017 is 6.5pp. If you want to run the regression yourself, the Mori positive leader satisfaction ratings differential (PM Vs LOTO) for the 10 elections plus 2019 are: -3 29 20 7 -19 19 3 -10 11 4 12 The GB vote share lead for the govt in those 10 elections are: -7.2 15.2 11.7 7.6 -12.8 9.4 2.9 -7.2 6.5 2.4 Regression coefficients are y=-0.88214+0.611826x. R^2=0.9373. You can run the same analysis using net favorability, it gives a Tory lead of 8pp, but it does a worse job of predicting the result historically. You're welcome!
Ok, I'll bite. What are X and Y in your equation above?
Comments
Theresa May had to put up with him calling her deal a 'polished turd.'
This is the same deal which he is putting in front of the public as being a very good deal, 95% the same as May's deal. What a charlatan.
Let’s not fall for it.
And fall for what? Are you doubting its authenticity, when Ashworth himself has admitted it is genuine?
If a quality chef offered to cook me a delicious meal but 5% of the ingredients would be cyanide I'd say no I'm not interested. If an alternative chef offered the same dish without the cyanide then I would be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbpyjwTrfJg
The Tory Bots should really stop digging.
The only ones to have made stuff up over this are @bbclaurak sources and CCHQ.
Just apologise and let the story move on to something else.
Yesterday Boris was wrong but so was Laura Kunnesberg over the punch
However, nobody could have foreseen labour shooting their own fox this morning in such a spectacular way
And of course conservatives will play it to their advantage
It is called politics
Indeed if people say 7/10 or below for certainty to vote they then halve that if people say they didn’t vote in 2017.
The one thing though with these turnout indications , many different weighting’s are applied across the pollsters .
There’s no perfect way to weight turnout .
We should also be aware that just because a poll is an outlier doesn’t mean it’s not correct , this works both ways so the Opinium and recent Survation can’t just be discounted .
And then there is the question of the advisors around Corbyn - Milne and Murray for instance.
Questions have (rightly IMO) been asked about Cummings. There are certain people he has been linked with which worry me now about his closeness to the PM. The same need to be asked about Corbyn and co.
These are legitimate questions and it is very troubling that there are unanswered questions and concerns about both the current PM and his advisors and the Opposition Leader and his advisors.
As said previous, I am not trying to provide a real time results service (BBC, Sky etc will do that), more trying to get a handle on the state of play and especially if YouGov is looking correct again and if so what will be the likely final outcome.
1.51 yesterday 3.30pm
1.46 7pm
1.43 8am today
1.41 Now
☠️
Real political warfare social media operations moved on years ago from simple spamming - nowadays they try look more like normal people. Aside from being more convincing, it's also far harder for twitter's automated defences to detect.
But it was always going to be wheeled out by tomorrow at the latest.
On that note, I better go and do something useful: my VAT returns.
"How the hell am I supposed to know that?"
My office Christmas party is tonight. And apparently it’s “Cuban themed”.
Kill me. Kill me now.
One of the most persistent controversies involving the Security Service during the 1970s and 1980s was the so-called "Wilson Plot", in which officers of the Service were accused of having conspired against the Labour Prime Minister Sir Harold Wilson.
https://www.mi5.gov.uk/the-wilson-plot
You only go there if you have to. The Tories needed a dead cat.
Was 5.1 then 4.6 then 4.3 now 4.1
Sorry
"I wish I'd known sooner. But, alas, I have a prior engagement. Look forward to the photos, guys!"
You can thank me later.
That said, the story completely undermines Warren's attempt to attack Buttigieg for his corporate connections.
The Tory peer comes across as a twat.
Ashworth comes across as naive in being so frank, but it is no surprise he has those views, and just like many Tories reluctantly support Johnson simply because he is not Corbyn, I have no doubt Ashworth prefers Corbyn to Johnson.
Most voters already know the Tories are winning, that Corbyn is a liability so it will only change things at the margin, just like yesterdays news.
Neither side has won the campaign, hence the numbers are quite similar to a month ago, bar the smaller parties being heavily squeezed.
As an introvert, my solution to occasions like that is to drink 3 cocktails very quickly, and then slooooow down before reaching a truly embarrassing state.
The desire for all healthcare to be delivered to all citizens through a single publicly funded institution is unsustainable. We currently spend about 10% of GDP on healthcare, less than all bar Italy amongst G7 countries and way below the US which spends over 16%. But out of the 10%, 8% comes directly from the government, which is actually higher than anywhere else in the world. I think the forecasts are that due to demographic and economic changes, within a decade or two we're going to have to spend something like 14-15% of GDP on healthcare (and that's just to stand still in terms of the range and quality of provision). There's absolutely no way that an additional 5% or so of GDP can come entirely from government coffers - there's going to have to be a significant contribution from the private sector on both an absolute and proportional basis, either directly or through some form of insurance scheme. But mention those economic realities and the reaction is often that you're proposing to eat babies. We're already lagging behind the rest of the world in terms of the quality and scope of our healthcare and the obsession that everything must revolve around an entirely publicly-funded NHS is part of the problem - not the solution.
No lords a leaping
No gold rings
Is there a polite form of apology for that ?
Now that really would be useful.
https://twitter.com/Senhor_da_Luz/status/1203982726078050306
https://twitter.com/PinkNews/status/1204005099233828870
My office party is on Friday night. Could be a very painful experience, surrounded by gloating Tory supporters.
NEW THREAD
"I'm so sorry. My baby daughter has not been well and it's been very tiring for my wife. So I really need to be home to support her and do my bit. I'm sure you understand."
(PS This one - without the word "baby" - works for quite a long time, especially if you have more than one child. I managed to get out of most works dos for about two decades that way.)
Well, I'd like that too.
We need to reintroduce the PB Drinks Do.
BREAKING: Sheree Jenner-Hepburn claims she was hacked. Knows not a soul in Leeds, she says. So, that 'good friend' that was used to debunk our story was - according to her - a fabrication.
Yet someone pointing this out is the racist.
Get in the sea.
Talk about defending the indefensible.
Hasta victoria siempre.