So Baron Greg Barker of Battle, Tory peer, has betrayed his friend Jonathan Ashworth. What was meant to be banter between mates has been leaked to the Guido Fawkes site.
Ashworth has given his honest opinion of the state of play as he sees it but that doesn't mean that all Labour MPs think in the same way. It is no secret that Brexit has complicated voting patterns all over the country. It is also no secret that some Labour MPs think that the party would gain votes with a new leader.
A good letter in one of our daily papers today says that Labour voters 'Lending their votes to Boris' is like giving your car keys to a drunk and hoping you will get the car back in one piece.
No surprises in the Ashworth tape for me. I already knew all sane Labour MPs believe that Corbyn is unfit to be PM and that the Tories will happily betray their friends if it is politically expedient to do so.
Despite all this morning's hoo ha which will pass by most voters the last two polls ICM and Comres had Tory leads of just 6 and 7% which is approaching hung parliament territory. Some late swingback to Labour is entirely plausible and could be happening.
So Baron Greg Barker of Battle, Tory peer, has betrayed his friend Jonathan Ashworth. What was meant to be banter between mates has been leaked to the Guido Fawkes site.
Ashworth has given his honest opinion of the state of play as he sees it but that doesn't mean that all Labour MPs think in the same way. It is no secret that Brexit has complicated voting patterns all over the country. It is also no secret that some Labour MPs think that the party would gain votes with a new leader.
A good letter in one of our daily papers today says that Labour voters 'Lending their votes to Boris' is like giving your car keys to a drunk and hoping you will get the car back in one piece.
Very good analogy (which paper let me guess). Except you are temporarily blinded and the only other thing with you is a 2-yr old dachshund called Poppet.
So Baron Greg Barker of Battle, Tory peer, has betrayed his friend Jonathan Ashworth. What was meant to be banter between mates has been leaked to the Guido Fawkes site.
Ashworth has given his honest opinion of the state of play as he sees it but that doesn't mean that all Labour MPs think in the same way. It is no secret that Brexit has complicated voting patterns all over the country. It is also no secret that some Labour MPs think that the party would gain votes with a new leader.
A good letter in one of our daily papers today says that Labour voters 'Lending their votes to Boris' is like giving your car keys to a drunk and hoping you will get the car back in one piece.
It's so evidently a wind up on the phone call, I can't believe anyone actually thinks Ashworth is being serious, he literally laughs on the phone.
And why hide the voice of the person he was talking to?
If that is the case, why are you so rattled?
"And he said party MPs 'f***ed it up' in 2016 in their attempt to remove the Labour leader, saying they 'went too early'. "
Oh the LOLZ
As revealing as this story is, I don't see it making much of a difference. I would be very surprised if the main news channels ran a story using Guido as a source.
Despite all this morning's hoo ha which will pass by most voters the last two polls ICM and Comres had Tory leads of just 6 and 7% which is approaching hung parliament territory. Some late swingback to Labour is entirely plausible and could be happening.
Except comres was a swing away from the previous poll for Gina Miller
So Baron Greg Barker of Battle, Tory peer, has betrayed his friend Jonathan Ashworth. What was meant to be banter between mates has been leaked to the Guido Fawkes site.
Ashworth has given his honest opinion of the state of play as he sees it but that doesn't mean that all Labour MPs think in the same way. It is no secret that Brexit has complicated voting patterns all over the country. It is also no secret that some Labour MPs think that the party would gain votes with a new leader.
A good letter in one of our daily papers today says that Labour voters 'Lending their votes to Boris' is like giving your car keys to a drunk and hoping you will get the car back in one piece.
You gloss over the fact Ashworth states Corbyn could be a risk to national security that the civil service will have to take steps to deal with. Unsurprisingly
And half a dozen senior Tories were so convinced Boris should not be leader that they stood against him just last summer.
Anecdotal - The 4 year old kid story has been noted by my (Tory this time round) office and called staged/fake news. No prompting by myself.
The trouble with so many lies and dissemblings, and so much fake news amplified by partisan commentators, is that no one believes anything, and thus chooses to believe the thing which most matches their worldview.
For example, there are still a *lot* of people on Twitter (where else) who refuse to believe that Johnson said "people of talent" rather than "people of colour". Most of them seem to sport a red rose or a GTTO hashtag.
I think Boris's video was possibly one of the most excruciating things I have seen in politics- up there with the Edstone and Kinnocks Sheffield rally
What possesses the spinmasters to try out these trite, stupid things?
Well my 21 year old (likely to vote Green) saw it and laughed. Enjoyed it. Said it was very good. I enjoyed it too. Boris is not a bad actor. But there again I loathe Love Actually so anything that takes the piss out of it is fine by me.
Won't change either of our votes but for those who care about Brexit it may well have cut-through and it is certainly more enjoyable than shouty debates.
It's so evidently a wind up on the phone call, I can't believe anyone actually thinks Ashworth is being serious, he literally laughs on the phone.
And why hide the voice of the person he was talking to?
If that is the case, why are you so rattled?
"And he said party MPs 'f***ed it up' in 2016 in their attempt to remove the Labour leader, saying they 'went too early'. "
Oh the LOLZ
As revealing as this story is, I don't see it making much of a difference. I would be very surprised if the main news channels ran a story using Guido as a source.
BBC, Guardian, Telegraph, Mail for starters........
So Baron Greg Barker of Battle, Tory peer, has betrayed his friend Jonathan Ashworth. What was meant to be banter between mates has been leaked to the Guido Fawkes site.
Ashworth has given his honest opinion of the state of play as he sees it but that doesn't mean that all Labour MPs think in the same way. It is no secret that Brexit has complicated voting patterns all over the country. It is also no secret that some Labour MPs think that the party would gain votes with a new leader.
A good letter in one of our daily papers today says that Labour voters 'Lending their votes to Boris' is like giving your car keys to a drunk and hoping you will get the car back in one piece.
You gloss over the fact Ashworth states Corbyn could be a risk to national security that the civil service will have to take steps to deal with. Unsurprisingly
And half a dozen senior Tories were so convinced Boris should not be leader that they stood against him just last summer.
You think leadership contests should be uncontested? Very democratic
In 72 hours we will be post GE 2019 for better or worse
But to be honest it cannot be any worse than we have seen upto polling day
Want to bet?
A little assessment of where we're at, as a country: on Sunday I had lunch with a friend. She grew up in Tito's Yugoslavia, and lived in the UK for several years in her 20s. Her daughter came to study at a university in Liverpool, so she has been over a few times recently. Her view of the UK media is that it is much, much worse in terms of bias and falsehood than she ever experienced in the Communist dictatorship of her youth. She was also dismayed by Liverpool, describing it as an absolutely abysmal place to live. And the daughter (who has family in North Wales) found her British fellow students to be a bunch of vacuous drunks, and quickly fell ill such was the paucity of the food available at the university and in local shops. She is now in the Netherlands, and much happier.
Sometimes an outside eye is helpful.
But politics in the UK takes place in such a bubble. There are so many issues here that other European countries handle better, but we seem incapable of learning from them. Arrogance, corruption, dark money and media bias hold us back.
Chances of a Johnson regime doing anything to address this? Zero, zero, zero.
"Her view of the UK media is that it is much, much worse in terms of bias and falsehood than she ever experienced in the Communist dictatorship of her youth"
On the Social Media stuff this is a c&p from a Tele article.
"Social media analysis by the research firm We Are Social showed the Conservative Party has gained more likes, comments, shares and positive reactions than Labour.
Andre Van Loon, senior research and insight director, said: "In the past, the Conservative Party has attracted less visible engagement from its social media followers than Labour, due to the 'shy Tory' phenomenon.
"But in this election, Conservative support appears to be loud and proud, with Labour trailing by comparison.
"The Conservative Party is far ahead of Labour and the other opposition parties, with just a few days to go before the country goes to the polls.""
To be honest, I think we're all in danger of leaping on to the latest story as THE ground-shaking event of the campaign, pumped by either side's propaganda machine. Paul Staines is a really nasty piece of work, and yes there are plenty of people like him on the Left.
I shall be glad when this is all over. I'm heading abroad whilst the results come in. Thank goodness.
In 72 hours we will be post GE 2019 for better or worse
But to be honest it cannot be any worse than we have seen upto polling day
Want to bet?
A little assessment of where we're at, as a country: on Sunday I had lunch with a friend. She grew up in Tito's Yugoslavia, and lived in the UK for several years in her 20s. Her daughter came to study at a university in Liverpool, so she has been over a few times recently. Her view of the UK media is that it is much, much worse in terms of bias and falsehood than she ever experienced in the Communist dictatorship of her youth. She was also dismayed by Liverpool, describing it as an absolutely abysmal place to live. And the daughter (who has family in North Wales) found her British fellow students to be a bunch of vacuous drunks, and quickly fell ill such was the paucity of the food available at the university and in local shops. She is now in the Netherlands, and much happier.
Sometimes an outside eye is helpful.
But politics in the UK takes place in such a bubble. There are so many issues here that other European countries handle better, but we seem incapable of learning from them. Arrogance, corruption, dark money and media bias hold us back.
Chances of a Johnson regime doing anything to address this? Zero, zero, zero.
"Her view of the UK media is that it is much, much worse in terms of bias and falsehood than she ever experienced in the Communist dictatorship of her youth"
Anecdotal - The 4 year old kid story has been noted by my (Tory this time round) office and called staged/fake news. No prompting by myself.
The trouble with so many lies and dissemblings, and so much fake news amplified by partisan commentators, is that no one believes anything, and thus chooses to believe the thing which most matches their worldview.
For example, there are still a *lot* of people on Twitter (where else) who refuse to believe that Johnson said "people of talent" rather than "people of colour". Most of them seem to sport a red rose or a GTTO hashtag.
Not sure if the response I saw to my post on the Isle of Wight was here or elsewhere, but it's Bristol West and the Isle of Wight that the Greens are hopeful for. They could get one of them.
Why? Electoral Calculus has Greens with 1% chance in both those seats.
I’m not like some in here who refuse to accept when their parties having a bad day ! Yesterday was bad for the Tories and today Labours having a bad day because of Ashworth .
I’m not like some in here who refuse to accept when their parties having a bad day ! Yesterday was bad for the Tories and today Labours having a bad day because of Ashworth .
It's so evidently a wind up on the phone call, I can't believe anyone actually thinks Ashworth is being serious, he literally laughs on the phone.
And why hide the voice of the person he was talking to?
If that is the case, why are you so rattled?
"And he said party MPs 'f***ed it up' in 2016 in their attempt to remove the Labour leader, saying they 'went too early'. "
Oh the LOLZ
As revealing as this story is, I don't see it making much of a difference. I would be very surprised if the main news channels ran a story using Guido as a source.
Corbyn is a clear and present danger to the safety and security of the UK.
If you are worried he might scrap our aircraft carriers, or sell off the Harriers, or axe a third of the army, the joke is on him. The Conservatives have beaten him to it.
It's so evidently a wind up on the phone call, I can't believe anyone actually thinks Ashworth is being serious, he literally laughs on the phone.
And why hide the voice of the person he was talking to?
If that is the case, why are you so rattled?
"And he said party MPs 'f***ed it up' in 2016 in their attempt to remove the Labour leader, saying they 'went too early'. "
Oh the LOLZ
As revealing as this story is, I don't see it making much of a difference. I would be very surprised if the main news channels ran a story using Guido as a source.
BBC, Guardian, Telegraph, Mail for starters........
Let's see if it makes the 6.00 or 10.00pm news. If it does, then it's pretty serious for Labour. It's not like Ashworth is a junior minister either. Events indeed.
I’m not like some in here who refuse to accept when their parties having a bad day ! Yesterday was bad for the Tories and today Labours having a bad day because of Ashworth .
Not sure if the response I saw to my post on the Isle of Wight was here or elsewhere, but it's Bristol West and the Isle of Wight that the Greens are hopeful for. They could get one of them.
Why? Electoral Calculus has Greens with 1% chance in both those seats.
Baron Greg Barker of Battle, Ashworth's so called friend has now a new claim to fame as a betrayer of friends.
His other claim to fame rests on his habit of using the microwave at The Department of Energy and Climate Change to warm a cushion for his pet dachsund. What a hero!
To be honest, I think we're all in danger of leaping on to the latest story as THE ground-shaking event of the campaign, pumped by either side's propaganda machine. Paul Staines is a really nasty piece of work, and yes there are plenty of people like him on the Left.
I shall be glad when this is all over. I'm heading abroad whilst the results come in. Thank goodness.
You're going away on election night? You should have mentioned it
I doubt the Ashworth news will change any votes, just as the kid won't have done so yesterday.
Agreed, the kid will probably shift slightly more but we're talking small numbers IMO.
The key is avoiding a barrage of negative stories and losing momentum, so Ashworth has helped the Tories out immensely in this case.
I hope the updated MRP will show the day by day changes to the model as we saw a couple of weeks ago, that can help us understand what issues might have cut through and/or if minds were largely made up 6 weeks ago.
I think the trouble is that everyone agrees the NHS is overstretched but simply doesn’t trust Corbyn’s Labour to be any better in doing something about it.
I find it bizarre the way the NHS becomes the most important political issue in every election. It is absurd. It is not the case in elections in other European countries. It becomes such a political issue that any chance of sensible steps - as per the very good post by @RobinWiggs (on the previous thread) - become impossible. .....
It's something cared about so much, and venerated too much, that it actually prevents things happening. Sometimes that's very good, but it also hinders improvement and people dare not contemplate it
On the Social Media stuff this is a c&p from a Tele article.
"Social media analysis by the research firm We Are Social showed the Conservative Party has gained more likes, comments, shares and positive reactions than Labour.
Andre Van Loon, senior research and insight director, said: "In the past, the Conservative Party has attracted less visible engagement from its social media followers than Labour, due to the 'shy Tory' phenomenon.
"But in this election, Conservative support appears to be loud and proud, with Labour trailing by comparison.
"The Conservative Party is far ahead of Labour and the other opposition parties, with just a few days to go before the country goes to the polls.""
How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?
Johnson:
Bad 42% Good 38% Neither 16% Don't know 4%
Corbyn:
Bad 56% Good 24% Neither 15% Don't know 5%
Swinson:
Bad 44% Neither 27% Good 19% Don't know 10%
Panelbase 4-6 Dec #GE2019 #bbcr4today
Who would you prefer as PM
Jester 39%
Jezza 32%
BMG 7.12.19
Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.
HP here we come!
Except the lead in that poll was 9 points.
PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
May be they missed out Prime Minster Jo??
I know I`ll be shouted down but I think that Swinson has been harshly criticised over this. Of more substance is that the public seem to have taken against her due to things like dress and voice pitch, which is a shame.
I'd second that. She made an over optimistic pitch as potential pm, big deal.
I’m not like some in here who refuse to accept when their parties having a bad day ! Yesterday was bad for the Tories and today Labours having a bad day because of Ashworth .
“The question is for Labour if it gets itself a half-decent leader, next time round if it can reverse and regain its sort of traditional heartland seats," he adds.
Asked how long it would take to replace Jeremy Corbyn if the Tories win a majority, Mr Ashworth says: "I think things can change quickly. I think things change more quickly generally now."
"They clearly knew his views of Jeremy Corbyn and basically it amounts to what looks like a sting - because the individual he was talking to is a Conservative activist.
Nevertheless, the remarks are out there and they are damning.
Here you have the man who is meant to be fronting Labour's attack on the NHS basically saying they haven't a hope of winning, that voters believe they blocked Brexit and they don't like Jeremy Corbyn.
And, perhaps most damning of all, seeming to suggest that Mr Corbyn is a risk to national security.
So this is absolutely going to dominate the headlines today."
The words of Norman Smith, BBC assistant political editor.
I don't at all. Note that Corbyn is insisting on politicizing the 4-year old today when even the Guadian is reporting that "his mother has asked politicians not to use her son’s treatment to make arguments about the NHS in the final few days of general election campaigning."
No holds should be barred in taking Corbyn and his cadre down - reporting the fact that his own Shadow Cabinet colleagues think he's a disaster and a risk to national security is absolute fair play.
I disagree here. It is awful for the parents but to bring the NHS into focus Lab have every right to politicise it. It (the NHS) has formed the basis of their whole campaign and here they have a human face to put to their campaign. They would be crazy, and wrong imo, not to use it.
Hard cases make bad law. Ditto re individual NHS cases like this.
Quite a few years ago my youngest was in A&E with a suspected epilepsy attack. (Turned out not to be.). We had to wait a long time and in the children's waiting area there was another parent who was also waiting for some final check. His child had already seen a doctor. The father was being an absolute pill, endlessly complaining about the wait and barracking any medical staff he could see to ask what was going on. Eventually a doctor told him that his son would be seen but this was according to medical priority and not according to who had arrived first. I can well imagine a parent like that making a fuss and a story about how his son had to had to wait a zillion hours and what a disgrace etc. Without context and without understanding what else is going on, an individual story does not really tell you much about what is happening and can be grossly unfair to the medical staff (as this parent was).
Individual cases can - sometimes - illuminate but they can just as easily obscure and divert from sensible understanding, especially in the middle of an election campaign when used by those seeking to make a point they will make anyway regardless of any facts.
FYI, still some more work to do (if I get time), but this is roughly what will be available on the big night. Not designed as a "result service", more how things are looking, especially vs YouGov MRP.
It's so evidently a wind up on the phone call, I can't believe anyone actually thinks Ashworth is being serious, he literally laughs on the phone.
And why hide the voice of the person he was talking to?
If that is the case, why are you so rattled?
"And he said party MPs 'f***ed it up' in 2016 in their attempt to remove the Labour leader, saying they 'went too early'. "
Oh the LOLZ
As revealing as this story is, I don't see it making much of a difference. I would be very surprised if the main news channels ran a story using Guido as a source.
BBC, Guardian, Telegraph, Mail for starters........
Let's see if it makes the 6.00 or 10.00pm news. If it does, then it's pretty serious for Labour. It's not like Ashworth is a junior minister either. Events indeed.
adding the FT, The Sun, the express, the Mirror, ITV news, Leicestershire live
I’m not like some in here who refuse to accept when their parties having a bad day ! Yesterday was bad for the Tories and today Labours having a bad day because of Ashworth .
Clearly Ashworth saying it’s banter and feeling betrayed by a Tory friend is the least damaging way of dealing with it .
I think most people would be pissed off if their phone call was recorded and then released and feel quite betrayed .
Yes they would and quite rightly so, although in terms of story management I'd suggest they not go big on attacking the recording even existing as it looks like trying to distract. Let people make their own view on that.
I must admit I feel a bit sorry for Ashworth too. Everyone should be able to have private conversations without being recorded.
With regards to this and the boy on the floor story, will they make a difference? It's so hard to know. At the time, the death of Jo Cox was thought to have ended Leave's chance in the referendum but in the end it didn't seem to make any difference.
At this point, I would say there is less chance of these stories affecting the overall result as many people have already voted by post and others have already made up their minds. It could make a difference at the margins though. There is bound to be a Lab-Con marginal somewhere which comes down to less than 50 votes.
It must be so hard if you lose by 2 votes like the LD in NE Fife last time. You must think a few more leaflets delivered or doors knocked on could have made the difference.
It's so evidently a wind up on the phone call, I can't believe anyone actually thinks Ashworth is being serious, he literally laughs on the phone.
And why hide the voice of the person he was talking to?
If that is the case, why are you so rattled?
"And he said party MPs 'f***ed it up' in 2016 in their attempt to remove the Labour leader, saying they 'went too early'. "
Oh the LOLZ
As revealing as this story is, I don't see it making much of a difference. I would be very surprised if the main news channels ran a story using Guido as a source.
BBC, Guardian, Telegraph, Mail for starters........
Let's see if it makes the 6.00 or 10.00pm news. If it does, then it's pretty serious for Labour. It's not like Ashworth is a junior minister either. Events indeed.
It will, but I think it has less potential traction than yesterday because we all know Corbyn is a dangerous subversive. In fact it suggests checks and balances are in place in the event of a Corbyn premiership. I always had it down as in the unlikely event of Corbyn winning an election, some latter day Peter Wight's would replace him with some titular PM. I had that guy down as Prince Andrew. I suspect that might have changed.
Yesterday's embarrassment was all about the bizarre chain of events including cover ups. I doubt that too will have too much effect either.
"Nevertheless, the remarks are out there and they are damning.
Here you have the man who is meant to be fronting Labour’s attack on the NHS basically saying they haven’t a hope of winning, that voters believe they blocked Brexit and they don’t like Jeremy Corbyn.
And, perhaps most damning of all, seeming to suggest that Mr Corbyn is a risk to national security.
So this is absolutely going to dominate the headlines today.
Events dear boy, events..".
BBC Assistant Political Editor
I read Ben Macintyre's biography of Oleg Gordievsky recently ("The Spy and the Traitor" - a cracking read by the way). There's an interesting section in it about the security services' reaction to Gordievsky's allegation that Michael Foot was "Agent Boot", in the pay of the KGB. This emerged in the run up to the 1983 election and gave the security services a dilemma - should they act on their information or not? According to Macintyre, the very small group of people (only 2 or 3 I think) in the know decided that they couldn't do anything that might influence the election and so kept quiet about it in the hope or expectation that Foot would lose and the problem of having a KGB informant as potential PM go away, but at the same time they determined that if by some chance Labour did win, then before he was sworn in, they would have to pass the information they had on to the Queen, presumably to give her the opportunity of refusing to appoint Foot as PM.
The truth of the allegations against Foot is disputed, as is the question of whether or not any information he gave away either deliberately or accidentally was actually of any value. But that isn't what matters - the fact is that, rightly or wrongly, the heads of the security services believed there was some risk and that they had to make a decision as to how to use the information they had.
Macintyre doesn't speculate on what would have happened if the Queen had been brought into play, or discuss the constitutional implications of any of this, but it does raise some interesting questions about how things might play out if there are genuine concerns within the security services about whether Corbyn or any members of his circle do pose a security risk.
In 72 hours we will be post GE 2019 for better or worse
But to be honest it cannot be any worse than we have seen upto polling day
Want to bet?
A little assessment of where we're at, as a country: on Sunday I had lunch with a friend. She grew up in Tito's Yugoslavia, and lived in the UK for several years in her 20s. Her daughter came to study at a university in Liverpool, so she has been over a few times recently. Her view of the UK media is that it is much, much worse in terms of bias and falsehood than she ever experienced in the Communist dictatorship of her youth. She was also dismayed by Liverpool, describing it as an absolutely abysmal place to live. And the daughter (who has family in North Wales) found her British fellow students to be a bunch of vacuous drunks, and quickly fell ill such was the paucity of the food available at the university and in local shops. She is now in the Netherlands, and much happier.
Sometimes an outside eye is helpful.
But politics in the UK takes place in such a bubble. There are so many issues here that other European countries handle better, but we seem incapable of learning from them. Arrogance, corruption, dark money and media bias hold us back.
Chances of a Johnson regime doing anything to address this? Zero, zero, zero.
"Her view of the UK media is that it is much, much worse in terms of bias and falsehood than she ever experienced in the Communist dictatorship of her youth"
I stopped reading when i got to this bit.
A fundamentally unserious comment.
Chances of that being serious? Zero, zero, zero.
Sounds like your friend will be much more at comfortable in an EU superstate.
I’m not like some in here who refuse to accept when their parties having a bad day ! Yesterday was bad for the Tories and today Labours having a bad day because of Ashworth .
Yep
Thanks we finally agree on something ! Lol
I would give a thumbs up - but my tech skills.....
FYI, still some more work to do (if I get time), but this is roughly what will be available on the big night. Not designed as a "result service", more how things are looking, especially vs YouGov MRP.
FYI, still some more work to do (if I get time), but this is roughly what will be available on the big night. Not designed as a "result service", more how things are looking, especially vs YouGov MRP.
FYI, still some more work to do (if I get time), but this is roughly what will be available on the big night. Not designed as a "result service", more how things are looking, especially vs YouGov MRP.
How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?
Johnson:
Bad 42% Good 38% Neither 16% Don't know 4%
Corbyn:
Bad 56% Good 24% Neither 15% Don't know 5%
Swinson:
Bad 44% Neither 27% Good 19% Don't know 10%
Panelbase 4-6 Dec #GE2019 #bbcr4today
Who would you prefer as PM
Jester 39%
Jezza 32%
BMG 7.12.19
Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.
HP here we come!
Except the lead in that poll was 9 points.
PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
May be they missed out Prime Minster Jo??
I know I`ll be shouted down but I think that Swinson has been harshly criticised over this. Of more substance is that the public seem to have taken against her due to things like dress and voice pitch, which is a shame.
I'd second that. She made an over optimistic pitch as potential pm, big deal.
Really is that all you think she has done wrong.
Oh well at least you aren't voting Tory this time.
Anyone else suprised that ICM showed a further narrowing of the tory lead when most others a showing a larger lead? Why the difference?
Most likely explanation is that it is all just noise. Comres also showed a narrowing lead (on their regular series for the Torygraph) and both have traditionally shown smaller leads, could be mean reversion? The best explanation from a Labour POV would be a late swing, the ICM poll is the only released so far to cover 8/9 of Dec according to Wiki. But I would want to see more evidence before jumping to that conclusion. My view is the real lead is somewhere between 4pp and 12pp.
In 72 hours we will be post GE 2019 for better or worse
But to be honest it cannot be any worse than we have seen upto polling day
Want to bet?
A little assessment of where we're at, as a country: on Sunday I had lunch with a friend. She grew up in Tito's Yugoslavia, and lived in the UK for several years in her 20s. Her daughter came to study at a university in Liverpool, so she has been over a few times recently. Her view of the UK media is that it is much, much worse in terms of bias and falsehood than she ever experienced in the Communist dictatorship of her youth. She was also dismayed by Liverpool, describing it as an absolutely abysmal place to live. And the daughter (who has family in North Wales) found her British fellow students to be a bunch of vacuous drunks, and quickly fell ill such was the paucity of the food available at the university and in local shops. She is now in the Netherlands, and much happier.
Sometimes an outside eye is helpful.
But politics in the UK takes place in such a bubble. There are so many issues here that other European countries handle better, but we seem incapable of learning from them. Arrogance, corruption, dark money and media bias hold us back.
Chances of a Johnson regime doing anything to address this? Zero, zero, zero.
Interesting. Back in the mid 80's I went to look at services for then elderly in Czechoslovakia, and while there got talking to a journalist. It was a time of football hooliganism in UK and I remarked to him that I had been told of sports reporters going along to away fans at a particular game and urging hostility and abuse towards the opposition. The Czech looked at me in astonishment and wanted to know why anyone would do that!
FYI, still some more work to do (if I get time), but this is roughly what will be available on the big night. Not designed as a "result service", more how things are looking, especially vs YouGov MRP.
I’m not like some in here who refuse to accept when their parties having a bad day ! Yesterday was bad for the Tories and today Labours having a bad day because of Ashworth .
Good on you. It happens, it has effect, but it not the end of the world.
How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?
Johnson:
Bad 42% Good 38% Neither 16% Don't know 4%
Corbyn:
Bad 56% Good 24% Neither 15% Don't know 5%
Swinson:
Bad 44% Neither 27% Good 19% Don't know 10%
Panelbase 4-6 Dec #GE2019 #bbcr4today
Who would you prefer as PM
Jester 39%
Jezza 32%
BMG 7.12.19
Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.
HP here we come!
Except the lead in that poll was 9 points.
PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
May be they missed out Prime Minster Jo??
I know I`ll be shouted down but I think that Swinson has been harshly criticised over this. Of more substance is that the public seem to have taken against her due to things like dress and voice pitch, which is a shame.
I'd second that. She made an over optimistic pitch as potential pm, big deal.
Really is that all you think she has done wrong.
Oh well at least you aren't voting Tory this time.
I dont think she's been great, the reaction to her proves that, but she's not been as bad as people act like either.
I think the trouble is that everyone agrees the NHS is overstretched but simply doesn’t trust Corbyn’s Labour to be any better in doing something about it.
I find it bizarre the way the NHS becomes the most important political issue in every election. It is absurd. It is not the case in elections in other European countries. It becomes such a political issue that any chance of sensible steps - as per the very good post by @RobinWiggs (on the previous thread) - become impossible. .....
It's something cared about so much, and venerated too much, that it actually prevents things happening. Sometimes that's very good, but it also hinders improvement and people dare not contemplate it
It has become a sacred cow. A really bad move because it means its faults are not properly addressed and no-one is willing to expend any sort of political capital making changes that would make it better.
It is really dangerous when people or things are seen as indispensable in this way. A proper health system is absolutely essential. The particular form of it is not. Labour's big mistake - and one reason I don't really trust them on this - is that they always confuse the particular form/structure with what is - or should be - the real aim, an affordable efficient health/social care service which provides patients with what they need medically.
Corbyn is a clear and present danger to the safety and security of the UK.
If you are worried he might scrap our aircraft carriers, or sell off the Harriers, or axe a third of the army, the joke is on him. The Conservatives have beaten him to it.
One does wonder how well a patriotic Labour Party willing to deal with crime, invest in defence, practical and understanding on immigration and being sensible with the economy too, led by someone like Ed Balls, would do.
ICM's last poll before the election was announced had a 6 point Tory lead and their first poll after had a 7 point lead although both Lab and Con vote shares have stormed upwards.
It all suggests not too much has changed over the election period which has got to be decent news for the Tories compared to 2 years ago.
Despite all this morning's hoo ha which will pass by most voters the last two polls ICM and Comres had Tory leads of just 6 and 7% which is approaching hung parliament territory. Some late swingback to Labour is entirely plausible and could be happening.
Except comres was a swing away from the previous poll for Gina Miller
Sure but if you are a Tory supporter how comfortable are you on leads of 6's and 7's in this volatile final pre-election period? A rotten weather day on Thursday or further traction on the NHS could knock off a couple of points yet.
ICM's last poll before the election was announced had a 6 point Tory lead and their first poll after had a 7 point lead although both Lab and Con vote shares have stormed upwards.
It all suggests not too much has changed over the election period which has got to be decent news for the Tories compared to 2 years ago.
Comments
We need our politicians to talk to one another not in a siloed campaign mode.
Now they won’t. Well done.
I think most people would be pissed off if their phone call was recorded and then released and feel quite betrayed .
For example, there are still a *lot* of people on Twitter (where else) who refuse to believe that Johnson said "people of talent" rather than "people of colour". Most of them seem to sport a red rose or a GTTO hashtag.
Won't change either of our votes but for those who care about Brexit it may well have cut-through and it is certainly more enjoyable than shouty debates.
I stopped reading when i got to this bit.
A fundamentally unserious comment.
"Social media analysis by the research firm We Are Social showed the Conservative Party has gained more likes, comments, shares and positive reactions than Labour.
Andre Van Loon, senior research and insight director, said: "In the past, the Conservative Party has attracted less visible engagement from its social media followers than Labour, due to the 'shy Tory' phenomenon.
"But in this election, Conservative support appears to be loud and proud, with Labour trailing by comparison.
"The Conservative Party is far ahead of Labour and the other opposition parties, with just a few days to go before the country goes to the polls.""
Anyway, he's on BBC News saying it's banter. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50726592
To be honest, I think we're all in danger of leaping on to the latest story as THE ground-shaking event of the campaign, pumped by either side's propaganda machine. Paul Staines is a really nasty piece of work, and yes there are plenty of people like him on the Left.
I shall be glad when this is all over. I'm heading abroad whilst the results come in. Thank goodness.
Electoral Calculus has Greens with 1% chance in both those seats.
As long as Labour keep it on the NHS they may be do okay.
Feeling betrayed is fair enough though - but that does not detract from the message.
Lets be honest a lot of people have doubts about Corbyn, this just reinforces it.
France, Germany and Italy, certainly Italy, all show slumps at about that time.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord_10errors.html
GODDAMMIT, Ozy!
His other claim to fame rests on his habit of using the microwave at The Department of Energy and Climate Change to warm a cushion for his pet dachsund. What a hero!
The key is avoiding a barrage of negative stories and losing momentum, so Ashworth has helped the Tories out immensely in this case.
I hope the updated MRP will show the day by day changes to the model as we saw a couple of weeks ago, that can help us understand what issues might have cut through and/or if minds were largely made up 6 weeks ago.
Churn the outrage machine on both ends & break the polity.
Particularly with Ashworth front & centre.
Asked how long it would take to replace Jeremy Corbyn if the Tories win a majority, Mr Ashworth says: "I think things can change quickly. I think things change more quickly generally now."
Nevertheless, the remarks are out there and they are damning.
Here you have the man who is meant to be fronting Labour's attack on the NHS basically saying they haven't a hope of winning, that voters believe they blocked Brexit and they don't like Jeremy Corbyn.
And, perhaps most damning of all, seeming to suggest that Mr Corbyn is a risk to national security.
So this is absolutely going to dominate the headlines today."
The words of Norman Smith, BBC assistant political editor.
Quite a few years ago my youngest was in A&E with a suspected epilepsy attack. (Turned out not to be.). We had to wait a long time and in the children's waiting area there was another parent who was also waiting for some final check. His child had already seen a doctor. The father was being an absolute pill, endlessly complaining about the wait and barracking any medical staff he could see to ask what was going on. Eventually a doctor told him that his son would be seen but this was according to medical priority and not according to who had arrived first. I can well imagine a parent like that making a fuss and a story about how his son had to had to wait a zillion hours and what a disgrace etc. Without context and without understanding what else is going on, an individual story does not really tell you much about what is happening and can be grossly unfair to the medical staff (as this parent was).
Individual cases can - sometimes - illuminate but they can just as easily obscure and divert from sensible understanding, especially in the middle of an election campaign when used by those seeking to make a point they will make anyway regardless of any facts.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA
With regards to this and the boy on the floor story, will they make a difference? It's so hard to know. At the time, the death of Jo Cox was thought to have ended Leave's chance in the referendum but in the end it didn't seem to make any difference.
At this point, I would say there is less chance of these stories affecting the overall result as many people have already voted by post and others have already made up their minds. It could make a difference at the margins though. There is bound to be a Lab-Con marginal somewhere which comes down to less than 50 votes.
It must be so hard if you lose by 2 votes like the LD in NE Fife last time. You must think a few more leaflets delivered or doors knocked on could have made the difference.
Yesterday's embarrassment was all about the bizarre chain of events including cover ups. I doubt that too will have too much effect either.
The truth of the allegations against Foot is disputed, as is the question of whether or not any information he gave away either deliberately or accidentally was actually of any value. But that isn't what matters - the fact is that, rightly or wrongly, the heads of the security services believed there was some risk and that they had to make a decision as to how to use the information they had.
Macintyre doesn't speculate on what would have happened if the Queen had been brought into play, or discuss the constitutional implications of any of this, but it does raise some interesting questions about how things might play out if there are genuine concerns within the security services about whether Corbyn or any members of his circle do pose a security risk.
Yeah, cheerio pocohontas
https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/1204344653174181888?s=20
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Jennifer's_Ear
As it stands MRP predicts Labour on 7 and Tories on 5. Landslide victory for UKIP, I suppose?
Oh well at least you aren't voting Tory this time.
The Czech looked at me in astonishment and wanted to know why anyone would do that!
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/12/14-portillo-moments-to-look-out-for-on-election-night/
It is really dangerous when people or things are seen as indispensable in this way. A proper health system is absolutely essential. The particular form of it is not. Labour's big mistake - and one reason I don't really trust them on this - is that they always confuse the particular form/structure with what is - or should be - the real aim, an affordable efficient health/social care service which provides patients with what they need medically.
Most elections, haven't had any. That's one each for the reds and blues (it's a red-blue marginal) and a lot of electoral literature from both.
It all suggests not too much has changed over the election period which has got to be decent news for the Tories compared to 2 years ago.
Just like TSE and David Herdson.
One other prominent sensible Tory poster has unfortunately succumbed to tribe over Country.
I'll get my coat.