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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At exactly this stage before GE2017 punters rated TMay’s majority chances higher than they rate Johnson’s now

It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves what happened last time and how the received opinion of those who risk their money betting on politics got it totally wrong.

Read the full story here

Cookie

First!

Floater

2nd like the Marxists

WhisperingOracle

Third time lucky.

I think these next three days are crucial, including switchers on the day.

My view is that we're currently on about +10-20, and we could still get either a heavier Tory maj than that or a hung parliament.

HYUFD

In 1992 every poll had Major preferred to Kinnock as PM, even if Labour narrowly led the Tories in most polls, now every poll has Boris preferred to Corbyn as PM.

In 2017 Yougov MRP forecast a hung parliament and Survation GMB had the Tories just 1% ahead in its final poll, now Yougov MRP forecasts a Tory majority and Survation GMB has the Tories 14% ahead

OnlyLivingBoy

WhisperingOracle said:

Third time lucky.

I think these next three days are crucial, including switchers on the day.

My view is that we're currently on about +10-20, and we could still get either a heavier Tory maj than that, or a hung parliament.

That is exactly where I am. Worth bearing in mind that both in 1992 and 2017 (and indeed in every election in my lifetime) the leader satisfaction ratings correctly called the result, and in 2019 those point to a Tory lead of 6-7pp, on the cusp of a hung parliament.

bigjohnowls

Floater said:

2nd like the Marxists

A close 2nd!!!

HYUFD

Jeremy Corbyn wants power sharing deal in the Falklands outgoing Argentine Ambassador says

eek

HYUFD said:

In 1992 every poll had Major preferred to Kinnock as PM, even if Labour narrowly led the Tories in most polls, now every poll has Boris preferred to Corbyn as PM.

In 2017 Yougov MRP forecast a hung parliament and Survation GMB had the Tories just 1% ahead in its final poll, now Yougov MRP forecasts a Tory majority and Survation GMB has the Tories 14% ahead

You seem to be getting nervous

RobinWiggs

6th or lower, like Farage.

bigjohnowls

HYUFD said:

In 1992 every poll had Major preferred to Kinnock as PM, even if Labour narrowly led the Tories in most polls, now every poll has Boris preferred to Corbyn as PM.

In 2017 Yougov MRP forecast a hung parliament and Survation GMB had the Tories just 1% ahead in its final poll, now Yougov MRP forecasts a Tory majority and Survation GMB has the Tories 14% ahead

How do you know what tonight's YG MRP shows?
How does MRP pick up Tactical voting?

HYUFD

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Third time lucky.

I think these next three days are crucial, including switchers on the day.

My view is that we're currently on about +10-20, and we could still get either a heavier Tory maj than that, or a hung parliament.

That is exactly where I am. Worth bearing in mind that both in 1992 and 2017 (and indeed in every election in my lifetime) the leader satisfaction ratings correctly called the result, and in 2019 those point to a Tory lead of 6-7pp, on the cusp of a hung parliament.

It was preferred PM that predicted the result, on net satisfaction ratings Howard led Blair in 2005 for example but Blair still led as preferred PM

MarqueeMark

Lessons have been learned.

HYUFD

bigjohnowls said:

HYUFD said:

In 1992 every poll had Major preferred to Kinnock as PM, even if Labour narrowly led the Tories in most polls, now every poll has Boris preferred to Corbyn as PM.

In 2017 Yougov MRP forecast a hung parliament and Survation GMB had the Tories just 1% ahead in its final poll, now Yougov MRP forecasts a Tory majority and Survation GMB has the Tories 14% ahead

How do you know what tonight's YG MRP shows?

The first Yougov MRP in 2017 predicted a hung parliament, as did the second, the first Yougov MRP this time predicted a Tory majority of 68 so I doubt the final one will be much different given the overall Yougov poll rating is about the same

Sean_F

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Third time lucky.

I think these next three days are crucial, including switchers on the day.

My view is that we're currently on about +10-20, and we could still get either a heavier Tory maj than that, or a hung parliament.

That is exactly where I am. Worth bearing in mind that both in 1992 and 2017 (and indeed in every election in my lifetime) the leader satisfaction ratings correctly called the result, and in 2019 those point to a Tory lead of 6-7pp, on the cusp of a hung parliament.

The respective leader ratings point to a bigger lead than that.

MarqueeMark

We are getting used to expecting a "well I never saw that coming" election?

RobinWiggs

FPT.

Are we running a prediction thread this time?

This was mine from last Thursday - if anything I would go slightly bigger now...because I hadn’t factored in the otter vote.

Con 43% 355 seats
Lab 33% 215 seats
Lib Dem 14% 15 seats
SNP 46 seats
Brexit Party 0 seats.
Green 1 seat.
Others 18 seats.

Con Majority 60

HYUFD

eek said:

HYUFD said:

In 1992 every poll had Major preferred to Kinnock as PM, even if Labour narrowly led the Tories in most polls, now every poll has Boris preferred to Corbyn as PM.

In 2017 Yougov MRP forecast a hung parliament and Survation GMB had the Tories just 1% ahead in its final poll, now Yougov MRP forecasts a Tory majority and Survation GMB has the Tories 14% ahead

You seem to be getting nervous

No, I am the same as I have been throughout the campaign, I don't get excited by noise, the fundamentals remain the same

Andy_JS

Question: if the Tories get between 310 and 320 seats and are therefore dependent on the unionists, is it probably correct to say that although they won't support Boris's Deal they also won't put Corbyn in Downing Street?

bigjohnowls

Sean_F said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Third time lucky.

I think these next three days are crucial, including switchers on the day.

My view is that we're currently on about +10-20, and we could still get either a heavier Tory maj than that, or a hung parliament.

That is exactly where I am. Worth bearing in mind that both in 1992 and 2017 (and indeed in every election in my lifetime) the leader satisfaction ratings correctly called the result, and in 2019 those point to a Tory lead of 6-7pp, on the cusp of a hung parliament.

The respective leader ratings point to a bigger lead than that.

Most recent BMG is Jester 39 Jezza 32

Big_G_NorthWales

Andy_JS said:

Question: if the Tories get between 310 and 320 seats and are therefore dependent on the unionists, is it probably correct to say that although they won't support Boris's Deal they also won't put Corbyn in Downing Street?

Yes

WhisperingOracle

Andy_JS said:

Question: if the Tories get between 310 and 320 seats and are therefore dependent on the unionists, is it probably correct to say that although they won't support Boris's Deal they also won't put Corbyn in Downing Street?

This issue hasn't been discussed enough recently - they could be important again.

MarqueeMark

98% chance of rain. 63 mph winds. This is going to be a fun canvass session..... 😒

Endillion

A timely reminder of how important it is that tonight's yougov shows a smaller majority than the last one did.

Although it seems clear that Corbyn has already been rejected, far more strongly than Kinnock ever was.

Richard_Tyndall

Andy_JS said:

Question: if the Tories get between 310 and 320 seats and are therefore dependent on the unionists, is it probably correct to say that although they won't support Boris's Deal they also won't put Corbyn in Downing Street?

I suspect the most likely situation in that case is that they support Boris in No 10 except on the Deal and as a result we potentially Leave with No Deal on 31st Jan. The interesting question at that point is how many anti-No Dealers have managed to get elected under the Conservative banner and whether they are able to compensate for the Unionist support. It will all come down to one or two votes.

theakes

One thing for sure the Lib Dems are going to stgruggle to win even 10 seats, I suspect it will be single figures, with a total vote not that much more than the last two elections..

Andy_JS

Richard_Tyndall said:

Andy_JS said:

Question: if the Tories get between 310 and 320 seats and are therefore dependent on the unionists, is it probably correct to say that although they won't support Boris's Deal they also won't put Corbyn in Downing Street?

I suspect the most likely situation in that case is that they support Boris in No 10 except on the Deal and as a result we potentially Leave with No Deal on 31st Jan. The interesting question at that point is how many anti-No Dealers have managed to get elected under the Conservative banner and whether they are able to compensate for the Unionist support. It will all come down to one or two votes.

Thanks, that's what I was thinking. So in order for the opposition parties to get rid of Boris as PM, the Tories would have to go below 310 seats.

HYUFD

Andy_JS said:

Question: if the Tories get between 310 and 320 seats and are therefore dependent on the unionists, is it probably correct to say that although they won't support Boris's Deal they also won't put Corbyn in Downing Street?

The DUP have said they will only back Labour if Corbyn is ousted as Labour leader

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7720127/DUPs-Arlene-Foster-prop-Labour-government-Jeremy-Corbyn-ousted.html

Cookie

RobinWiggs said:

FPT.

Are we running a prediction thread this time?

This was mine from last Thursday - if anything I would go slightly bigger now...because I hadn’t factored in the otter vote.

Con 43% 355 seats
Lab 33% 215 seats
Lib Dem 14% 15 seats
SNP 46 seats
Brexit Party 0 seats.
Green 1 seat.
Others 18 seats.

Con Majority 60

New avatar, Robin? Are you actually associated withe the SDP?

Jonathan

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

RobinWiggs

Cookie said:

RobinWiggs said:

FPT.

Are we running a prediction thread this time?

This was mine from last Thursday - if anything I would go slightly bigger now...because I hadn’t factored in the otter vote.

Con 43% 355 seats
Lab 33% 215 seats
Lib Dem 14% 15 seats
SNP 46 seats
Brexit Party 0 seats.
Green 1 seat.
Others 18 seats.

Con Majority 60

New avatar, Robin? Are you actually associated withe the SDP?

Nope...but it was the first party I joined as a 14 yr old in 1987. Followed by the Lib Dem’s at uni and a Tory member since 1997.

My natural home would be somewhere between an Owenite SDP and Cameron one nationism, but a bit harder fiscally.

Andy_JS

HYUFD said:

Andy_JS said:

Question: if the Tories get between 310 and 320 seats and are therefore dependent on the unionists, is it probably correct to say that although they won't support Boris's Deal they also won't put Corbyn in Downing Street?

The DUP have said they will only back Labour if Corbyn is ousted as Labour leader

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7720127/DUPs-Arlene-Foster-prop-Labour-government-Jeremy-Corbyn-ousted.html

Presumably they wouldn't be impressed if he was replaced by John McDonnell.

Big_G_NorthWales

theakes said:

One thing for sure the Lib Dems are going to stgruggle to win even 10 seats, I suspect it will be single figures, with a total vote not that much more than the last two elections..

Yesterday's London constituency polls were not good for the lib dems

At the same time George Osborne came down for Boris in the Evening Standard and Lord Sugar asked all labour supporters to vote conservative to rid the party of Corbyn

Both Osborne and Sugar could have quite an effect in London and the south

Indeed if labour supporters want to see the back of Corbyn voting conservative would amost guarantee it.

Jonathan

RobinWiggs said:

Cookie said:

RobinWiggs said:

FPT.

Are we running a prediction thread this time?

This was mine from last Thursday - if anything I would go slightly bigger now...because I hadn’t factored in the otter vote.

Con 43% 355 seats
Lab 33% 215 seats
Lib Dem 14% 15 seats
SNP 46 seats
Brexit Party 0 seats.
Green 1 seat.
Others 18 seats.

Con Majority 60

New avatar, Robin? Are you actually associated withe the SDP?

Nope...but it was the first party I joined as a 14 yr old in 1987. Followed by the Lib Dem’s at uni and a Tory member since 1997.

My natural home would be somewhere between an Owenite SDP and Cameron one nationism, but a bit harder fiscally.

New Labour.

CorrectHorseBattery

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

bigjohnowls

What level of seats will force leaders to resign?

I go for

Corbyn below 275 therefore he will

Johnson below 300 therefore he stays

Swinson?? I suspect she has to lose her seat but could see her hanging on with 10 if she does.

CorrectHorseBattery

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1204322254651318272?s=21

CorrectHorseBattery

Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

IanB2

bigjohnowls said:

HYUFD said:

In 1992 every poll had Major preferred to Kinnock as PM, even if Labour narrowly led the Tories in most polls, now every poll has Boris preferred to Corbyn as PM.

In 2017 Yougov MRP forecast a hung parliament and Survation GMB had the Tories just 1% ahead in its final poll, now Yougov MRP forecasts a Tory majority and Survation GMB has the Tories 14% ahead

How do you know what tonight's YG MRP shows?
How does MRP pick up Tactical voting?

My guess is that the seat-specific panellists are weighted to how they said (at the time) they voted in 2017.

Therefore a "base" level of tactical voting is built in.

The MRP will struggle to pick up the full extent of any change in tactical voting (up or down), essentially having two ways to do this, neither of which is perfect:

- changes in the reported voting intention of local panellists, working from a small sample with big MoE
- the national aggregate changes in voting behaviour filtering through the demographics.

I'd expect the latter to be better picking up a trend that is happening in lots of places - for example LibDems moving Labour in the many seats where the LibDems never stood a chance - than those happening in a few places - for example Labour supporters moving LibDem in its few targets. The latter relies on influencing the relevant demographics, which will pick up some of it - such Lab to LibDem tactical voters are likely to be educated people living in middle class areas - but spread it too widely across the model.

WhisperingOracle

When is the next poll due ?

I'm fascinated with each one at the moment, like a hungry otter.

timple

I have tried some canvassing this election both door step and telephone and the response rate for both is incredibly low. The only demographic I got much feedback from was the elderly. Perhaps everyone here already knows that but how the polling firms can draw accurate predictions given the difficulty in actually contacting abroad swathe of the population is beyond me. There must come a time mathematically where the signal to noise ratio is so low that not even the most sophisticated model can give an accurate answer. What that means for politics I do not know.

Cookie

RobinWiggs said:

Cookie said:

RobinWiggs said:

FPT.

Are we running a prediction thread this time?

This was mine from last Thursday - if anything I would go slightly bigger now...because I hadn’t factored in the otter vote.

Con 43% 355 seats
Lab 33% 215 seats
Lib Dem 14% 15 seats
SNP 46 seats
Brexit Party 0 seats.
Green 1 seat.
Others 18 seats.

Con Majority 60

New avatar, Robin? Are you actually associated withe the SDP?

Nope...but it was the first party I joined as a 14 yr old in 1987. Followed by the Lib Dem’s at uni and a Tory member since 1997.

My natural home would be somewhere between an Owenite SDP and Cameron one nationism, but a bit harder fiscally.

Ah, pity. I was going to award myself a spotter's badge! Personally I'd be very happy with an Owenite SDP. But maybe that's because as they never got near power I can project what I like onto them.

camel

RobinWiggs said:

Cookie said:

RobinWiggs said:

FPT.

Are we running a prediction thread this time?

This was mine from last Thursday - if anything I would go slightly bigger now...because I hadn’t factored in the otter vote.

Con 43% 355 seats
Lab 33% 215 seats
Lib Dem 14% 15 seats
SNP 46 seats
Brexit Party 0 seats.
Green 1 seat.
Others 18 seats.

Con Majority 60

New avatar, Robin? Are you actually associated withe the SDP?

Nope...but it was the first party I joined as a 14 yr old in 1987. Followed by the Lib Dem’s at uni and a Tory member since 1997.

My natural home would be somewhere between an Owenite SDP and Cameron one nationism, but a bit harder fiscally.

You sound like an Orange Booker. Am not sure your home is in OneNationTory 2.0.

squareroot2

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

that's only chopping off one head so to speak. Labour has to defeat its own hard left.

Jonathan

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.

Andy_JS

I wonder if there are plans within the Labour Party to potentially replace Corbyn with a leader who'd be acceptable to both the DUP and the LDs in the event of those parties holding the balance of power. They've both said they couldn't support the party as long as Corbyn is leader. Surely Labour wouldn't turn down the opportunity to move into government just over the issue of who the leader is.

IanB2

bigjohnowls said:

What level of seats will force leaders to resign?

I go for

Corbyn below 275 therefore he will

Johnson below 300 therefore he stays

Swinson?? I suspect she has to lose her seat but could see her hanging on with 10 if she does.

Swinson is brand new and will be seen as deserving a spell in the job and another chance. Corbyn will go anyway. Bozo would have to be prized from office and, like Mrs M before him, wont be resigning until there is at least one gun pointed to his head by close colleagues.

CorrectHorseBattery

squareroot2 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

that's only chopping off one head so to speak. Labour has to defeat its own hard left.

I’ll give you my most honest prediction: Starmer will become leader in the HP

WhisperingOracle

Andy_JS said:

I wonder if there are plans within the Labour Party to potentially replace Corbyn with a leader who'd be acceptable to both the DUP and the LDs in the event of those parties holding the balance of power. They've both said they couldn't support the party as long as Corbyn is leader. Surely Labour wouldn't turn down the opportunity to move into government just over the issue of who the leader is.

Exactly what I was thinking.

Big_G_NorthWales

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Only 9.1m views. Surely it must be near 65m now

But seriously will you answer the question I posted on the last thread

Will you guarantee you will still be posting on this forum after friday and beyond like the rest of us

IshmaelZ

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Can you update us on the number of views of that video of wossname off the BBC which was so crucial 4 or 5 days ago?

camel

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Can you update us on the number of views of that video of wossname off the BBC which was so crucial 4 or 5 days ago?

Cruel!

OnlyLivingBoy

Sean_F said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Third time lucky.

I think these next three days are crucial, including switchers on the day.

My view is that we're currently on about +10-20, and we could still get either a heavier Tory maj than that, or a hung parliament.

That is exactly where I am. Worth bearing in mind that both in 1992 and 2017 (and indeed in every election in my lifetime) the leader satisfaction ratings correctly called the result, and in 2019 those point to a Tory lead of 6-7pp, on the cusp of a hung parliament.

The respective leader ratings point to a bigger lead than that.

No they don't. Have you run the regression? The prediction for 2019 based on 10 data points from 1979 to 2017 is 6.5pp.
If you want to run the regression yourself, the Mori positive leader satisfaction ratings differential (PM Vs LOTO) for the 10 elections plus 2019 are:
-3 29 20 7 -19 19 3 -10 11 4 12
The GB vote share lead for the govt in those 10 elections are:
-7.2 15.2 11.7 7.6 -12.8 9.4 2.9 -7.2 6.5 2.4
Regression coefficients are y=-0.88214+0.611826x. R^2=0.9373.
You can run the same analysis using net favorability, it gives a Tory lead of 8pp, but it does a worse job of predicting the result historically.
You're welcome!

Chris

bigjohnowls said:

What level of seats will force leaders to resign?

I go for

Corbyn below 275 therefore he will

Johnson below 300 therefore he stays

Swinson?? I suspect she has to lose her seat but could see her hanging on with 10 if she does.

Always tricky for Lib Dems these days. The bad end of the range means they have so few alternatives to choose from. If it's really bad Ed Davey and Layla Moran may not be available.

Andy_JS

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1204322254651318272?s=21

Thanks, I might add this data to my candidates list.

TheScreamingEagles

Boy was on hospital floor because he wanted to get Brexit done, says Johnson.

BORIS Johnson has claimed that the boy lying on a floor in A&E was doing it as a protest because he wants to get Brexit done.

https://bit.ly/2YCZHiK

Sean_F

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sean_F said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Third time lucky.

I think these next three days are crucial, including switchers on the day.

My view is that we're currently on about +10-20, and we could still get either a heavier Tory maj than that, or a hung parliament.

That is exactly where I am. Worth bearing in mind that both in 1992 and 2017 (and indeed in every election in my lifetime) the leader satisfaction ratings correctly called the result, and in 2019 those point to a Tory lead of 6-7pp, on the cusp of a hung parliament.

The respective leader ratings point to a bigger lead than that.

No they don't. Have you run the regression? The prediction for 2019 based on 10 data points from 1979 to 2017 is 6.5pp.
If you want to run the regression yourself, the Mori positive leader satisfaction ratings differential (PM Vs LOTO) for the 10 elections plus 2019 are:
-3 29 20 7 -19 19 3 -10 11 4 12
The GB vote share lead for the govt in those 10 elections are:
-7.2 15.2 11.7 7.6 -12.8 9.4 2.9 -7.2 6.5 2.4
Regression coefficients are y=-0.88214+0.611826x. R^2=0.9373.
You can run the same analysis using net favorability, it gives a Tory lead of 8pp, but it does a worse job of predicting the result historically.
You're welcome!

Post hoc, proper hoc.

BluerBlue

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Which number will be greater - the number of views your tedious viral videos get, or the number of votes Labour gets in the election?

How's the Andrew Neil video doing by the way? We've missed your updates.

bigjohnowls

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1204322254651318272?s=21

Anyone find Uxbridge?

Jonathan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boy was on hospital floor because he wanted to get Brexit done, says Johnson.

BORIS Johnson has claimed that the boy lying on a floor in A&E was doing it as a protest because he wants to get Brexit done.

https://bit.ly/2YCZHiK

That about sums it all up.

bigjohnowls

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

HYUFD said:

In 1992 every poll had Major preferred to Kinnock as PM, even if Labour narrowly led the Tories in most polls, now every poll has Boris preferred to Corbyn as PM.

In 2017 Yougov MRP forecast a hung parliament and Survation GMB had the Tories just 1% ahead in its final poll, now Yougov MRP forecasts a Tory majority and Survation GMB has the Tories 14% ahead

How do you know what tonight's YG MRP shows?
How does MRP pick up Tactical voting?

My guess is that the seat-specific panellists are weighted to how they said (at the time) they voted in 2017.

Therefore a "base" level of tactical voting is built in.

The MRP will struggle to pick up the full extent of any change in tactical voting (up or down), essentially having two ways to do this, neither of which is perfect:

- changes in the reported voting intention of local panellists, working from a small sample with big MoE
- the national aggregate changes in voting behaviour filtering through the demographics.

I'd expect the latter to be better picking up a trend that is happening in lots of places - for example LibDems moving Labour in the many seats where the LibDems never stood a chance - than those happening in a few places - for example Labour supporters moving LibDem in its few targets. The latter relies on influencing the relevant demographics, which will pick up some of it - such Lab to LibDem tactical voters are likely to be educated people living in middle class areas - but spread it too widely across the model.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Interesting.

Brom

Any polls today other than the big one or are they all waiting for tomorrow now?

Chris

Interesting that this report suggests the first YouGov MRP was leaked ahead of the initial release. Is that generally thought to be the case?
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12518-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-final-mrp-poll

RobD

Chris said:

Interesting that this report suggests the first YouGov MRP was leaked ahead of the initial release. Is that generally thought to be the case?
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12518-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-final-mrp-poll

I recall there being a sharp move one day recently, but I can't remember if that was just prior to the first MRP release.

wooliedyed

Brom said:

Any polls today other than the big one or are they all waiting for tomorrow now?

I think Kantar but not sure

moonshine

Sterling still steady as she goes, in fact just bounced off 1.3170, the highest point since May. I assume this is the Yougov print lad buying his summer Magaluf money early, having seen tonight's MRP already.

Andy_JS

17 of the 25 biggest increases in electorate are in safe Labour seats.

Richard_Tyndall

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

As I said yesterday evening, my impression is that this infatuation with likes and views is very misleading. The Neil empty chair was hyped as being a huge blow to the Conservatives and then their vote share went up. Just like the marches and petitions earlier in the year this counting of views and likes is ultimately pointless as - so far - it changes nothing. Even when perhaps it should.

Why is this? Because the sorts of people who are going to go and look at this sort of video clip are generally going to be those who already dislike the Tories. They are going to share it with their friends who hold the same views. They are going to watch it multiple times and talk about it in the echo chambers of facebook and twitter. It changes nothing.

TheScreamingEagles

Chris said:

Interesting that this report suggests the first YouGov MRP was leaked ahead of the initial release. Is that generally thought to be the case?
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12518-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-final-mrp-poll

It wasn’t leaked, it was discussed at a presentation for political scientists, bloggers, and journalists a few hours before the official release.

No presentation is scheduled today.

(Well I’ve not received an invite this time.)

WhisperingOracle

"On the Today programme this morning Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, said that Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan would take the UK into “years of negotiation”. It would not amount to getting Brexit done, he claimed.

I do believe that, unless we get a Brexit party voice in the House of Commons, we are not going to get a realistic Brexit because he’ll push through this new EU treaty as it is."

This could be slightly damaging for Boris, given Farage's status as the sage and originator of Brexit, and the centrality of the "Get Brexit Done" message. Nigel seems to have gone full rogue for the Tories since the Annunziata Rees-Mogg incident.

PeterC

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

Is it? Why do you think that? The PLP can't just appoint another leader. There is an elaborate procedure to be followed.

MattW

That graph is *not* something of which I need to be reminded :-) .

RobD

RobD said:

Chris said:

Interesting that this report suggests the first YouGov MRP was leaked ahead of the initial release. Is that generally thought to be the case?
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12518-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-final-mrp-poll

I recall there being a sharp move one day recently, but I can't remember if that was just prior to the first MRP release.

Just had a check, that was on Dec 4th, and not prior to the MRP. Sorry!

DecrepiterJohnL

BluerBlue said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Which number will be greater - the number of views your tedious viral videos get, or the number of votes Labour gets in the election?

How's the Andrew Neil video doing by the way? We've missed your updates.

Given CCHQ hired a specialist social media team for this election, it probably does consider these things are important.

Chris

BluerBlue said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Which number will be greater - the number of views your tedious viral videos get, or the number of votes Labour gets in the election?

When will the Tories catch on to the fact that contemptuous arrogance isn't a good look - especially when it concerns sick children lying on hospital floors?

RobD

MattW said:

That graph is *not* something of which I need to be reminded :-) .

There was no election in 2017.

noneoftheabove

WhisperingOracle said:

Andy_JS said:

Question: if the Tories get between 310 and 320 seats and are therefore dependent on the unionists, is it probably correct to say that although they won't support Boris's Deal they also won't put Corbyn in Downing Street?

This issue hasn't been discussed enough recently - they could be important again.

Indeed, would love to see a no deal 31 Jan market on bf for hedging purposes.

BluerBlue

Tories focusing on the closeness of the race, and how a Hung Parliament could install Corbyn even if he's miles behind in seats.

That, plus yesterday's phoneygate smears, should put the fear of Cob in any Tory waverers and help GOTV.

bigjohnowls

PeterC said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

Is it? Why do you think that? The PLP can't just appoint another leader. There is an elaborate procedure to be followed.

If he is not in number 10 he will go.

OldKingCole

Jonathan said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.

I wonder if yesterday came in time to do some damage. Boris did NOT look good.
Conversely, in the opinion of self & wife, Corbyn came across well on BBBC this morning. Civilised, calm. Bit like Major really.

Andrew

Chris said:

Interesting that this report suggests the first YouGov MRP was leaked ahead of the initial release. Is that generally thought to be the case?
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12518-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-final-mrp-poll

Pretty sure it's happening with several of the polls, but there doesn't seem to be much evidence of it on the GBPUSD charts for last MRP - although maybe there wouldn't be, given it was in line with other polls.

bigjohnowls

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

Interesting that this report suggests the first YouGov MRP was leaked ahead of the initial release. Is that generally thought to be the case?
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12518-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-final-mrp-poll

It wasn’t leaked, it was discussed at a presentation for political scientists, bloggers, and journalists a few hours before the official release.

No presentation is scheduled today.

(Well I’ve not received an invite this time.)

Out of the loop!!!

Chris

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

Interesting that this report suggests the first YouGov MRP was leaked ahead of the initial release. Is that generally thought to be the case?
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12518-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-final-mrp-poll

It wasn’t leaked, it was discussed at a presentation for political scientists, bloggers, and journalists a few hours before the official release.

No presentation is scheduled today.

(Well I’ve not received an invite this time.)

I thought the results were omitted from the presentation, though. The audience wasn't trusted?

nunu2

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

No it isnt.

RobD

bigjohnowls said:

PeterC said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

Is it? Why do you think that? The PLP can't just appoint another leader. There is an elaborate procedure to be followed.

If he is not in number 10 he will go.

Whether or not he makes it to no. 10, he has been very successful at completely changing the direction of the Labour party. If one of his acolytes makes it as next leader, I doubt he'll be that unhappy with it overall!

Theuniondivvie

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Only 9.1m views. Surely it must be near 65m now

But seriously will you answer the question I posted on the last thread

Will you guarantee you will still be posting on this forum after friday and beyond like the rest of us

Why does he(?) have to guarantee you anything?

melcf

TheScreamingEagles said:

Boy was on hospital floor because he wanted to get Brexit done, says Johnson.

BORIS Johnson has claimed that the boy lying on a floor in A&E was doing it as a protest because he wants to get Brexit done.

https://bit.ly/2YCZHiK

Thank god that the boy wasn't Brexit. Would have been oven ready

bigjohnowls

bigjohnowls said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1204322254651318272?s=21

Anyone find Uxbridge?

Down the M1 turn right!

RobD

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Only 9.1m views. Surely it must be near 65m now

But seriously will you answer the question I posted on the last thread

Will you guarantee you will still be posting on this forum after friday and beyond like the rest of us

Why does he have to guarantee you anything?

He will be - it's obvious those that won't because they don't actually engage in conversation or debate. Such as our short-term visitor who went down in flames of glory over the weekend, for example!

BluerBlue

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Only 9.1m views. Surely it must be near 65m now

But seriously will you answer the question I posted on the last thread

Will you guarantee you will still be posting on this forum after friday and beyond like the rest of us

Why does he have to guarantee you anything?

Of course he doesn't. We're just speculating on what seat totals might prompt him to resign...

Big_G_NorthWales

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Only 9.1m views. Surely it must be near 65m now

But seriously will you answer the question I posted on the last thread

Will you guarantee you will still be posting on this forum after friday and beyond like the rest of us

Why does he have to guarantee you anything?

Of course he doesn't but it is a fair question

Chris

Jonathan said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.

I think jubilant Tories should be very concerned about five years of Johnson as prime minister. Not that there's much chance they can do anything about it if he gets a majority.

TheScreamingEagles

Chris said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

Interesting that this report suggests the first YouGov MRP was leaked ahead of the initial release. Is that generally thought to be the case?
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12518-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-final-mrp-poll

It wasn’t leaked, it was discussed at a presentation for political scientists, bloggers, and journalists a few hours before the official release.

No presentation is scheduled today.

(Well I’ve not received an invite this time.)

I thought the results were omitted from the presentation, though. The audience wasn't trusted?

If you had your wits about you then you could glean from the plethora of information presented (as well the 2017 MRP) that the Blue Meanies were on course for a majority of 50-80.

CorrectHorseBattery

PeterC said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

Is it? Why do you think that? The PLP can't just appoint another leader. There is an elaborate procedure to be followed.

The PLP don't appoint anyone. But what can be easily done is a temporary leader can stand in - and since McDonnell and Watson will go that leaves Starmer.

3ChordTrick

Financially this has already been my most successful election by a street. A pretty big buy of Tory seats at 324 before selling at 345. And a sell of Lib Dem seats at 44 which in hindsight I backed out of much to soon. But very nice profit in the bag.

I'm now sitting nicely in the green on Betfair with a bet on Tory majority. And once again debating whether to take money off the table.

My head says comfortable Tory majority, but I look at the ICM polls and Comres and ask what if they are right and Labour outperform. Really can't see it but it is possible. Against that we have the other polls showing comfortable Tory leads and anecdotals from Labour canvassing that don't exactly point to out performance.

Incidentally, I inhabit a world in real life where literally no-one I work with or socialise with is voting Tory or at least no-one will admit to it. Classic bubble which in no way reflects the real world. Within that group there are a small minority of Corbynites who still have the zealotry of true believers. The vast majority think he's an absolute disaster. A few flirting with voting Plaid, but clear that come Thursday almost every vote will go in the red box.

I have a feeling the Labour vote might he spectacularly inefficient this time round with votes piling up in safe metropolitan seats and collapsing elsewhere.

I hope that with Brexit out of the way Johnson might feel able to govern in the mantle of a Liberal, one nation Tory but I won't hold my breath.

Big_G_NorthWales

How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

Johnson:

Bad 42%
Good 38%
Neither 16%
Don't know 4%

Corbyn:

Bad 56%
Good 24%
Neither 15%
Don't know 5%

Swinson:

Bad 44%
Neither 27%
Good 19%
Don't know 10%

Panelbase 4-6 Dec
#GE2019 #bbcr4today

Banterman

Chris said:

Jonathan said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.

I think jubilant Tories should be very concerned about five years of Johnson as prime minister. Not that there's much chance they can do anything about it if he gets a majority.

Why? He was a very decent mayor of London for 8 years. Just look at the disaster Khan has been by comparison.

Chris

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Chris said:

Interesting that this report suggests the first YouGov MRP was leaked ahead of the initial release. Is that generally thought to be the case?
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/12518-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-final-mrp-poll

It wasn’t leaked, it was discussed at a presentation for political scientists, bloggers, and journalists a few hours before the official release.

No presentation is scheduled today.

(Well I’ve not received an invite this time.)

I thought the results were omitted from the presentation, though. The audience wasn't trusted?

If you had your wits about you then you could glean from the plethora of information presented (as well the 2017 MRP) that the Blue Meanies were on course for a majority of 50-80.

OK, thanks. I obviously didn't have my wits about me when I was trying to sift the speculation by those reading the runes after the presentation.

Big_G_NorthWales

Breaking

Adam Boulton making an unreserved apology to Boris Johnson

Now that is a surprise

CorrectHorseBattery

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Jonathan said:

This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.

Only 9.1m views. Surely it must be near 65m now

But seriously will you answer the question I posted on the last thread

Will you guarantee you will still be posting on this forum after friday and beyond like the rest of us

Why does he have to guarantee you anything?

Of course he doesn't but it is a fair question

I'll still be here, I know you'd be very happy getting rid of all of the left-wing voices and turning this into even more of an echo chamber than it already is but I am afraid I won't be going anywhere.

Harris_Tweed

On a (small) point of (utterly unimportant) order, the Sheffield rally was on the Wednesday before election week, not the Friday

(I actually thought it was the week of the election.. but apparently not)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Rally