Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.
Ooh exciting. I shall get some whisky and ice ready. Though do I remember that David is no longer politically active because of #proroguegate?
Who will be the 2019 equivalent? MarqueeMark saying that Totnes is going yellow after all? Or the Horse person throwing in the towel?
Yup David and myself are hors de combat.
It would be interesting to read more of a personal piece from either of you on what it's been like to go from being so politically engaged that you were canvassers to sitting on the sidelines of an election. Because if we are honest being a canvasser is a pretty fringe activity.
Will your heart be a flutter at 9.59 for any reason other than your betfair account? Or will you be at the local Odeon watching Cats?
It is always for the betting.
It is a pity that they can’t both lose.
If Corbyn had said what Johnson said yesterday about migrants but about the Jews he would have been rightly condemned.
Both leaders are turning their parties into sewers.
I look at the Tory manifesto pledge to weaken the judiciary and think eventually one day a Corbynite will win and the moment we need a strong judiciary to stop the unlawful seizure of assets they’ll have been castrated by a cheering Tory party.
I texted a friend who lives in Sydney yesterday and she said it was just terrible and not going away. Apparently it is like smoking 150 cigarettes a day Just think of that stat
150-200 PM2.5 …. not nice at all.
What's really shocking: Delhi and several Chinese cities are like that all the time.
I think these next three days are crucial, including switchers on the day.
My view is that we're currently on about +10-20, and we could still get either a heavier Tory maj than that, or a hung parliament.
That is exactly where I am. Worth bearing in mind that both in 1992 and 2017 (and indeed in every election in my lifetime) the leader satisfaction ratings correctly called the result, and in 2019 those point to a Tory lead of 6-7pp, on the cusp of a hung parliament.
The respective leader ratings point to a bigger lead than that.
No they don't. Have you run the regression? The prediction for 2019 based on 10 data points from 1979 to 2017 is 6.5pp. If you want to run the regression yourself, the Mori positive leader satisfaction ratings differential (PM Vs LOTO) for the 10 elections plus 2019 are: -3 29 20 7 -19 19 3 -10 11 4 12 The GB vote share lead for the govt in those 10 elections are: -7.2 15.2 11.7 7.6 -12.8 9.4 2.9 -7.2 6.5 2.4 Regression coefficients are y=-0.88214+0.611826x. R^2=0.9373. You can run the same analysis using net favorability, it gives a Tory lead of 8pp, but it does a worse job of predicting the result historically. You're welcome!
Post hoc, proper hoc.
So in response to my reasoned analysis you have said something untrue and then misquoted some Latin. You are Boris Johnson and I claim my £350mn a week.
Apparently 40 is the age when people change from being more likely to vote Labour to being more likely to vote Conservative, compared to 47 at the last election. (Maybe that figure has changed slightly as a result of the election campaign).
Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.
No it isnt.
Corbyn is an old, delusional fart. He probably fancies himself as some sort of missionary, to spread communism in this god forsaken land! I still think he's part of some Tory sleeper cell. If not for BC( Brexit Corbyn) the tories would never have dreamt of crossing 200 seats. With ten years of shocking austerity and nothing much to show. Still I don't understand why they love bashing him. He's their best friend!
What austerity is that ?
During the last ten years the government has borrowed over a trillion quid while the UK has run continuous trade deficits.
Could you tell us where the austerity is please.
Ask the baldy that question and many more unseen, unheard plebs
So you can't tell us where the 'ten years of shocking austerity' is even though you continually talk about it.
The meme that the UK has been suffering under austerity is worthy of some academic research.
IMO it originated because Labour wanted to use opposition to 'austerity' for electoral purposes and George Osborne was happy to play along so he could act the Thatcherite hardman.
Whereas the reality was a trillion quid of government borrowing and a continuous trade deficit.
At some point the UK will have to live within its means - at that point people will be looking back fondly on the era of 'austerity' and realise that in fact they never had it so good.
I suggest taking a look at the increasing rough sleeping problem nationwide, which I see a little worse each Christmas. Cuts to multiple wings of services and cuts to benefits are without doubt a key contributor.
Regardless of what you think of the Yoon to Nat narrative, this is a devastatingly accurate description of the SCon campaign. The SCons will be an interesting experiment in how long a party (sub branch) can operate without policies, ideas or aspirations.
'Step forward the Conservative and Unionist Party. Campaign leaflets from the SNP and Conservative candidates arrived recently at our house near Loch Ness. The SNP’s Drew Hendry spelt out what he is doing at present and intends to do if elected. On the other hand, the Conservative candidate, Fiona Fawcett, told me only that she doesn’t want another referendum and — for that reason alone — I should give her my vote.
Not a word on any national, regional or local policy. Not a word on Brexit. Not a word on what she personally stands for. I tweeted to point out the contrast and within two hours Dr Fawcett had blocked me. One look at her website does reveal what her priorities would be if elected, and shows that she has an admirable CV in both a professional and a voluntary capacity. I have no animosity towards her. However, I do have lots of questions for Dr Fawcett and other Scottish Tories, despite their keenness to avoid communicating with me. They are doing this all over Scotland. Do they realise that campaign literature of the sort she sent is an insult to our intelligence? Do they think avoiding talking about Brexit just makes it go away? Are they really comfortable campaigning for a man who lies as easily as he breathes, and whose idea of scrutiny is talking to the camera without an interviewer?'
You see, whenever you post something like that I know you’re worried.
It’s like how you get the strongest criticism of how useless Ruth Davidson is from Scottish Nationalists. They doth protest too much.
Good luck for Thursday x
Davidson was demonstrably useless. The Con vote is polling just as high if not higher than when she was leader. She led the SCons to a series of worst ever results. They only improved under Ruth Davidson when she abandoned the approach she won the leadership election on and adopted the approach of of her rival.
I think the trouble is that everyone agrees the NHS is overstretched but simply doesn’t trust Corbyn’s Labour to be any better in doing something about it.
I find it bizarre the way the NHS becomes the most important political issue in every election. It is absurd. It is not the case in elections in other European countries. It becomes such a political issue that any chance of sensible steps - as per the very good post by @RobinWiggs (on the previous thread) - become impossible.
On a personal level I am very conscious that, especially with my medical history, I need to take much more responsibility for my own health. I don’t smoke, drink very little but I do like my bread and pasta so need to lose some weight.
I suppose I better be off for a long walk then .....
It becomes that way because its a nationalised service and dependent on the largesse of the Treasury.
In the very long term I think the government should look at extending mandatory private cover to those in work, in the same way they have for private pensions.
It’s paid for by the state in other European countries too. So that can’t be the reason.
The fact that Labour see it as their best political card is utterly disastrous for the NHS as it makes any sensible grown up cross party discussion about how to provide cost effective health and social care more or less impossible.
Yes, but here it’s a direct budgetary decision of HM Treasury. It’s set in the annual Budget and 5-year departmental spending plans.
European countries have a mix of social insurance and localised funding, as well as central, so it’s not such an immediate political issue.
I think the trouble is that everyone agrees the NHS is overstretched but simply doesn’t trust Corbyn’s Labour to be any better in doing something about it.
I find it bizarre the way the NHS becomes the most important political issue in every election. It is absurd. It is not the case in elections in other European countries. It becomes such a political issue that any chance of sensible steps - as per the very good post by @RobinWiggs (on the previous thread) - become impossible.
On a personal level I am very conscious that, especially with my medical history, I need to take much more responsibility for my own health. I don’t smoke, drink very little but I do like my bread and pasta so need to lose some weight.
I suppose I better be off for a long walk then .....
It becomes that way because its a nationalised service and dependent on the largesse of the Treasury.
In the very long term I think the government should look at extending mandatory private cover to those in work, in the same way they have for private pensions.
It’s paid for by the state in other European countries too. So that can’t be the reason.
The fact that Labour see it as their best political card is utterly disastrous for the NHS as it makes any sensible grown up cross party discussion about how to provide cost effective health and social care more or less impossible.
The electorate figures show why a boundary review is long overdue. West Ham now up to 98,871 voters! At the other end of the scale Wirral West has 55,550! They are both Labour held seats in England so no excuse for the disparity.
I therefore don't see why the Isle of Wight couldn't be split into two. Doesn't it have 140,000 electors? So if split in two, it'd still each be bigger than Wirral West.
I do recall the Wirral was going to be reduced to three seats at the boundary review (from Wallasey, Wirral West, Wirral South and Birkenhead) which is probably long overdue.
Boundary review suggested splitting IoW into 2 IIRC.
How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?
Johnson:
Bad 42% Good 38% Neither 16% Don't know 4%
Corbyn:
Bad 56% Good 24% Neither 15% Don't know 5%
Swinson:
Bad 44% Neither 27% Good 19% Don't know 10%
Panelbase 4-6 Dec #GE2019 #bbcr4today
Who would you prefer as PM
Jester 39%
Jezza 32%
BMG 7.12.19
Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.
HP here we come!
Except the lead in that poll was 9 points.
PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
May be they missed out Prime Minster Jo??
I know I`ll be shouted down but I think that Swinson has been harshly criticised over this. Of more substance is that the public seem to have taken against her due to things like dress and voice pitch, which is a shame.
Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.
No it isnt.
Corbyn is an old, delusional fart. He probably fancies himself as some sort of missionary, to spread communism in this god forsaken land! I still think he's part of some Tory sleeper cell. If not for BC( Brexit Corbyn) the tories would never have dreamt of crossing 200 seats. With ten years of shocking austerity and nothing much to show. Still I don't understand why they love bashing him. He's their best friend!
What austerity is that ?
During the last ten years the government has borrowed over a trillion quid while the UK has run continuous trade deficits.
Could you tell us where the austerity is please.
"Austerity" has become a boo-word for Labour to deploy against the Tories. Austerity was a policy response to the credit-crunch, and it ended when Osborne ceased to be Chancellor. However, the narrative now is that any form of government prudence is referred to an an "austerity agenda" ar some such like.
Tories` fault for coining the phrase in the first place I guess.
How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?
Johnson:
Bad 42% Good 38% Neither 16% Don't know 4%
Corbyn:
Bad 56% Good 24% Neither 15% Don't know 5%
Swinson:
Bad 44% Neither 27% Good 19% Don't know 10%
Panelbase 4-6 Dec #GE2019 #bbcr4today
Who would you prefer as PM
Jester 39%
Jezza 32%
BMG 7.12.19
Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.
HP here we come!
Except the lead in that poll was 9 points.
PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
May be they missed out Prime Minster Jo??
I know I`ll be shouted down but I think that Swinson has been harshly criticised over this. Of more substance is that the public seem to have taken against her due to things like dress and voice pitch, which is a shame.
The problem is that she seems to be away with the fairies just as the Lib Dems were trying to portray themselves as a sensible moderate alternative to Boris and Corbyn.
There is nothing sensible and moderate about revoke or PM Jo Swinson and both unforced errors reinforced the negative image that she's not serious. It's no different to suggesting PM Farage.
Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.
Ooh exciting. I shall get some whisky and ice ready. Though do I remember that David is no longer politically active because of #proroguegate?
Who will be the 2019 equivalent? MarqueeMark saying that Totnes is going yellow after all? Or the Horse person throwing in the towel?
Yup David and myself are hors de combat.
It would be interesting to read more of a personal piece from either of you on what it's been like to go from being so politically engaged that you were canvassers to sitting on the sidelines of an election. Because if we are honest being a canvasser is a pretty fringe activity.
Will your heart be a flutter at 9.59 for any reason other than your betfair account? Or will you be at the local Odeon watching Cats?
It is always for the betting.
It is a pity that they can’t both lose.
If Corbyn had said what Johnson said yesterday about migrants but about the Jews he would have been rightly condemned.
Both leaders are turning their parties into sewers.
I look at the Tory manifesto pledge to weaken the judiciary and think eventually one day a Corbynite will win and the moment we need a strong judiciary to stop the unlawful seizure of assets they’ll have been castrated by a cheering Tory party.
100% agree.
The best result is a Hung Parliament which Corbyn can resign and we can have a Government with a new face of Labour that with LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens, a decent percentage of the population has voted for. Then we can have electoral reform and actually have a working democracy again.
A Hung Parliament is literally the best outcome for PR.
I'm drawing back slightly from my 110 majority thoughts to tory majority 80, a seat for every day of the year. Labour will be under 200, but not by as much as I had suspected. Probably around 190. There remains imo a small chance the polls are grossly overstating labour due to overcorretion for 2017 and if so, and with foul weather predicted it could be much much worse for labour
Regardless of what you think of the Yoon to Nat narrative, this is a devastatingly accurate description of the SCon campaign. The SCons will be an interesting experiment in how long a party (sub branch) can operate without policies, ideas or aspirations.
'Step forward the Conservative and Unionist Party. Campaign leaflets from the SNP and Conservative candidates arrived recently at our house near Loch Ness. The SNP’s Drew Hendry spelt out what he is doing at present and intends to do if elected. On the other hand, the Conservative candidate, Fiona Fawcett, told me only that she doesn’t want another referendum and — for that reason alone — I should give her my vote.
Not a word on any national, regional or local policy. Not a word on Brexit. Not a word on what she personally stands for. I tweeted to point out the contrast and within two hours Dr Fawcett had blocked me. One look at her website does reveal what her priorities would be if elected, and shows that she has an admirable CV in both a professional and a voluntary capacity. I have no animosity towards her. However, I do have lots of questions for Dr Fawcett and other Scottish Tories, despite their keenness to avoid communicating with me. They are doing this all over Scotland. Do they realise that campaign literature of the sort she sent is an insult to our intelligence? Do they think avoiding talking about Brexit just makes it go away? Are they really comfortable campaigning for a man who lies as easily as he breathes, and whose idea of scrutiny is talking to the camera without an interviewer?'
You see, whenever you post something like that I know you’re worried.
It’s like how you get the strongest criticism of how useless Ruth Davidson is from Scottish Nationalists. They doth protest too much.
Good luck for Thursday x
Davidson was demonstrably useless. The Con vote is polling just as high if not higher than when she was leader. She led the SCons to a series of worst ever results. They only improved under Ruth Davidson when she abandoned the approach she won the leadership election on and adopted the approach of of her rival.
It’s only Scottish Nationalists who talk about how useless Ruth Davidson is. It’s funny really because you’d normally expect them to beam about her political brilliance and how much of a threat she is, wouldn’t you?
Anyone else Scottish who’s non-partisan that I speak to has respect for her, and how she reaches out across the political divide. She impresses a lot of one nation Tories too.
I think the trouble is that everyone agrees the NHS is overstretched but simply doesn’t trust Corbyn’s Labour to be any better in doing something about it.
I find it bizarre the way the NHS becomes the most important political issue in every election. It is absurd. It is not the case in elections in other European countries. It becomes such a political issue that any chance of sensible steps - as per the very good post by @RobinWiggs (on the previous thread) - become impossible.
On a personal level I am very conscious that, especially with my medical history, I need to take much more responsibility for my own health. I don’t smoke, drink very little but I do like my bread and pasta so need to lose some weight.
I suppose I better be off for a long walk then .....
There is a 'folk memory' that 'Labour created the NHS' and indeed the original NHS Act was brought in by a Labour Government against consistent opposition from Churchill's Conservatives.There is therefore a belief that Labour will look after the NHS, and the Tories will seek to alter it.
One act of the Coalition Government that, IMHO anyway, caused a lot of Harm was the Lansley Act, which placed the day to day management of the NHS outside hospitals in the hands of GP's, who rarely signed up to be either managers or strategic thinkers. It also removed from Health management the sort of thing Ms Cyclefree mentioned; health promotion and disease prevention, and gave it to Local Government.
How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?
Johnson:
Bad 42% Good 38% Neither 16% Don't know 4%
Corbyn:
Bad 56% Good 24% Neither 15% Don't know 5%
Swinson:
Bad 44% Neither 27% Good 19% Don't know 10%
Panelbase 4-6 Dec #GE2019 #bbcr4today
Who would you prefer as PM
Jester 39%
Jezza 32%
BMG 7.12.19
Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.
HP here we come!
Except the lead in that poll was 9 points.
PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
May be they missed out Prime Minster Jo??
I know I`ll be shouted down but I think that Swinson has been harshly criticised over this. Of more substance is that the public seem to have taken against her due to things like dress and voice pitch, which is a shame.
The problem is that she seems to be away with the fairies just as the Lib Dems were trying to portray themselves as a sensible moderate alternative to Boris and Corbyn.
There is nothing sensible and moderate about revoke or PM Jo Swinson and both unforced errors reinforced the negative image that she's not serious. It's no different to suggesting PM Farage.
Well, Revoke certainly isn`t moderate, but I do think it`s sensible - so we are going to have to disagree about that.
To illustrate the point, Siberia's fastest growth industry over the last couple of years has been the export to China of mammoth ivory - which had been buried under permafrost for tens of thousands of years.
Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.
Ooh exciting. I shall get some whisky and ice ready. Though do I remember that David is no longer politically active because of #proroguegate?
Who will be the 2019 equivalent? MarqueeMark saying that Totnes is going yellow after all? Or the Horse person throwing in the towel?
Yup David and myself are hors de combat.
It would be interesting to read more of a personal piece from either of you on what it's been like to go from being so politically engaged that you were canvassers to sitting on the sidelines of an election. Because if we are honest being a canvasser is a pretty fringe activity.
Will your heart be a flutter at 9.59 for any reason other than your betfair account? Or will you be at the local Odeon watching Cats?
It is always for the betting.
It is a pity that they can’t both lose.
If Corbyn had said what Johnson said yesterday about migrants but about the Jews he would have been rightly condemned.
Both leaders are turning their parties into sewers.
I look at the Tory manifesto pledge to weaken the judiciary and think eventually one day a Corbynite will win and the moment we need a strong judiciary to stop the unlawful seizure of assets they’ll have been castrated by a cheering Tory party.
100% agree.
The best result is a Hung Parliament which Corbyn can resign and we can have a Government with a new face of Labour that with LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens, a decent percentage of the population has voted for. Then we can have electoral reform and actually have a working democracy again.
A Hung Parliament is literally the best outcome for PR.
I think the thing that irritates me is that Labour are running the NHS, and have been running it for the last two decades.
In Wales.
Labour would be on stronger ground if they could point to the Welsh NHS and say look how well we have done. In fact, the Welsh NHS is well, well behind the English and Scottish NHS.
My uncle died in a Welsh NHS hospital a few year ago now. He fell off his bed in a geriatric ward, and no-one noticed for 10 hours and he died on the floor.
An uncle on a floor. Less photogenic than a boy, as he was old and decrepit.
That’s awful: my sympathies
I think one defence Labour might point to on the “why haven’t you fixed the NHS in Wales?” question is that one of the biggest problems the NHS is currently having is bed blocking by geriatric patients who can’t go home but don’t actually need to be in hospital. Social care budgets have been cut to the bone as the government has cut local authority budgets - it’s hard to see how any locality in the UK can “fix the NHS” without fixing social care provision somehow & that requires co-operation from central government.
True ---- BUT Labour were in power in Westminster for many than half of the two decades.
They could -- and should -- have fixed the problem when they were in power in Westminster.
Even if they did - the local authority budget cuts up north are so extreme that unless it's legally required then it isn't in the budget,
And often even if it's legally required it's only being provided to those who know it has to be provided - if the council can fob you off they will.
I am sure you are right regarding local Councils in the NE.
But, many of the problems of social care/NHS funding were exacerbated by Blair's reforms (together with the remorseless ageing of the UK population).
E.g., the desperate position that dementia sufferers now face of funding their own care originates in the New Labour reformation of the NHS. (I think, last time I stated this on pb.com, Nick Palmer reluctantly admitted that this was true).
Truth to tell, we will make no progress on NHS or social care funding until the politics is removed. It is just too easy for the parties to blame each other, or cry "Dementia Tax" or "Death Tax" when a funding stream is devised.
Why I'm I getting a bad feeling about the result in the last couple of days?
Despite the polls, the anecdotes, the lack of any major boo boo by Boris etc. I just have this feeling of after 9 years are the public really going to back the tories for another 5 year term?
Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.
No it isnt.
Corbyn is an old, delusional fart. He probably fancies himself as some sort of missionary, to spread communism in this god forsaken land! I still think he's part of some Tory sleeper cell. If not for BC( Brexit Corbyn) the tories would never have dreamt of crossing 200 seats. With ten years of shocking austerity and nothing much to show. Still I don't understand why they love bashing him. He's their best friend!
What austerity is that ?
During the last ten years the government has borrowed over a trillion quid while the UK has run continuous trade deficits.
Could you tell us where the austerity is please.
Ask the baldy that question and many more unseen, unheard plebs
So you can't tell us where the 'ten years of shocking austerity' is even though you continually talk about it.
The meme that the UK has been suffering under austerity is worthy of some academic research.
IMO it originated because Labour wanted to use opposition to 'austerity' for electoral purposes and George Osborne was happy to play along so he could act the Thatcherite hardman.
Whereas the reality was a trillion quid of government borrowing and a continuous trade deficit.
At some point the UK will have to live within its means - at that point people will be looking back fondly on the era of 'austerity' and realise that in fact they never had it so good.
I suggest taking a look at the increasing rough sleeping problem nationwide, which I see a little worse each Christmas. Cuts to multiple wings of services and cuts to benefits are without doubt a key contributor.
Haven't we been told that there were 3,000 rough sleepers in the borough of Brent alone a decade ago ?
And do you really think rough sleepers are in any way indicative of 99% of people in this country ?
To illustrate the point, Siberia's fastest growth industry over the last couple of years has been the export to China of mammoth ivory - which had been buried under permafrost for tens of thousands of years.
It’s a 100 year project (credibly) to turn it around.
I just don’t see it as being credible the West can “stop” before 2050-2060 and probably 2080-2090 for the developing world. Anything more aggressive (which won’t happen) and we’d be facing societal collapse and insurrection, and probably even more deaths.
Therefore, we are going to have to take an awful lot of nasty shit on the chin, and mitigate it.
How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?
Johnson:
Bad 42% Good 38% Neither 16% Don't know 4%
Corbyn:
Bad 56% Good 24% Neither 15% Don't know 5%
Swinson:
Bad 44% Neither 27% Good 19% Don't know 10%
Panelbase 4-6 Dec #GE2019 #bbcr4today
Who would you prefer as PM
Jester 39%
Jezza 32%
BMG 7.12.19
Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.
HP here we come!
Except the lead in that poll was 9 points.
PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
May be they missed out Prime Minster Jo??
I know I`ll be shouted down but I think that Swinson has been harshly criticised over this. Of more substance is that the public seem to have taken against her due to things like dress and voice pitch, which is a shame.
The problem is that she seems to be away with the fairies just as the Lib Dems were trying to portray themselves as a sensible moderate alternative to Boris and Corbyn.
There is nothing sensible and moderate about revoke or PM Jo Swinson and both unforced errors reinforced the negative image that she's not serious. It's no different to suggesting PM Farage.
Well, Revoke certainly isn`t moderate, but I do think it`s sensible - so we are going to have to disagree about that.
There is a difference between revoke without a referendum and revoke after one. I think the proportion of people who think simply revoking without one is sensible is a very small number which is why the Lib Dems have lost nearly half their voters since September according to the polls. Total unforced error.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
The one thing that has been evidently clear throughout the last three years is the idea of cabinet responsibility has completely gone out of the window.
Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.
No it isnt.
Corbyn is an old, delusional fart. He probably fancies himself as some sort of missionary, to spread communism in this god forsaken land! I still think he's part of some Tory sleeper cell. If not for BC( Brexit Corbyn) the tories would never have dreamt of crossing 200 seats. With ten years of shocking austerity and nothing much to show. Still I don't understand why they love bashing him. He's their best friend!
What austerity is that ?
During the last ten years the government has borrowed over a trillion quid while the UK has run continuous trade deficits.
Could you tell us where the austerity is please.
Ask the baldy that question and many more unseen, unheard plebs
So you can't tell us where the 'ten years of shocking austerity' is even though you continually talk about it.
The meme that the UK has been suffering under austerity is worthy of some academic research.
IMO it originated because Labour wanted to use opposition to 'austerity' for electoral purposes and George Osborne was happy to play along so he could act the Thatcherite hardman.
Whereas the reality was a trillion quid of government borrowing and a continuous trade deficit.
At some point the UK will have to live within its means - at that point people will be looking back fondly on the era of 'austerity' and realise that in fact they never had it so good.
I suggest taking a look at the increasing rough sleeping problem nationwide, which I see a little worse each Christmas. Cuts to multiple wings of services and cuts to benefits are without doubt a key contributor.
Haven't we been told that there were 3,000 rough sleepers in the borough of Brent alone a decade ago ?
And do you really think rough sleepers are in any way indicative of 99% of people in this country ?
We've had this discussion extensively here, so I'm not really feeling too inclined to rehash it again. There are key missing elements in benefits and services, as well as benefit waiting times, that are linked to the recent rise. These changes were marketed under the brand "tightening our belts", so they can reasonably be ascribed to something called austerity.
This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Why does he have to guarantee you anything?
Of course he doesn't but it is a fair question
I'll still be here, I know you'd be very happy getting rid of all of the left-wing voices and turning this into even more of an echo chamber than it already is but I am afraid I won't be going anywhere.
Come on Horse, this isn't like you. Only a week or two back you were lauding this site for its good-naturedness. I don't think anyone wants to get rid of left wing voices. The fact that we can talk to each other without shouting at each other is one of the strengths of the site. If emotions are running a tad high with two days to go, I quite understand. But there are many non-Tory voices on here: BJO, Sandy Rentool, Nick Palmer, kinbalu, alb1on on the Labout side; OGH, Rochdale Pioneers, nichomar on the Lib Dems; Alistair Meeks, Cyclefree, PtP, OnlyLivingBoy, noneoftheabove in the generally disaffected category;Richard Nabavi, Nigel Foremain, Screaming Eagles in the ex-Tory category; Stuart Dicksob and malcolmg and Ybardsw (sp?) for the nats. Even many of those whi have said they will vite Tory like Topping and Robert Smithson and Byronic are doing so with sigmificant reservarions. As against whuch in the firmly Tory camp there's HYUFD and Marquee Mark and AVFC and North Cadboll and Big G. Now, I've missed many out, and apologies to allwho I have or who I've misplaced, but that doesn't sound like an echo chamber to me.
The "echo chambers" are people's own self-service buffet of social accounts they follow. Membership of PB is of course self-selecting, but at least there's a reasonable range of voices and once you decide to stay you get the full range. And despite, I fear, a slight decline in civility (probably since the referendum), it's nothing compared to the sewer of abuse on Twitter and on public Facebook pages.
I have some sympathy* with people who lift their head from their social feeds once a day and feel angry the "MSM" isn't parroting the same old nonsense they've been reading on Breitbart or Novara . Oh well.. once Boris has closed down the BBC and Channel 4 and people have stopped buying quality newspapers, that won't be a problem.
(*in a pitying, exasperated "I wish you'd get your head out of from between your legs and learn to evaluate sources of information in the world around you" kind of way.)
I just clarified with Shadsy that Candidates who have been suspended after nominations closed will settle as the party they were a memeber of.
This could be important for SNP over/under seat totals.
Can you explain this further - which constituecncies may be affected?
SNP candidate for Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy (likely SNP gain from Lab) is suspended by his party.
Others: - Labour PPC for Falkirk (less likely but still vaguely possible Lab gain from SNP) - Lib Dem PPC for Birmingham, Hodge Hill (will probably be a lost deposit anyway) - 3 Con PPCs currently suspended: - Aberdeen North (tiny outside chance of Tory gain from SNP) - Glasgow Central (no chance) - Leeds NE (almost no chance) - Also Leicester South - not sure if candidate is actually suspended, but no chance anyway - 3 more currently under investigation, in particular Hastings and Rye and Ashfield
The Labour and Lib Dem candidates are still on their respective party websites of candidate lists. I have emailed both to complain.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
To illustrate the point, Siberia's fastest growth industry over the last couple of years has been the export to China of mammoth ivory - which had been buried under permafrost for tens of thousands of years.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
Why I'm I getting a bad feeling about the result in the last couple of days?
Despite the polls, the anecdotes, the lack of any major boo boo by Boris etc. I just have this feeling of after 9 years are the public really going to back the tories for another 5 year term?
And now this. I have a bad feeling it is Corbyn who has improved his ratings.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
Did you read the thread? It's messages going out without the legally required imprint saying who is behind the message that he is talking about.
To give credit where it is due OGH's very cheeky Lib Dem letters that went out which he has now distanced himself from had the Lib Dems imprint on the bottom of the letter. If it didn't that would be a breach of existing law which is what is being spoken about.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
Why don't you fuck off?
I rather hope you might.
So dull.
You know, you don't have to respond, you can just scroll on past. I will do the same to your posts.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
So you can't tell us where the 'ten years of shocking austerity' is even though you continually talk about it.
The meme that the UK has been suffering under austerity is worthy of some academic research.
IMO it originated because Labour wanted to use opposition to 'austerity' for electoral purposes and George Osborne was happy to play along so he could act the Thatcherite hardman.
Whereas the reality was a trillion quid of government borrowing and a continuous trade deficit.
At some point the UK will have to live within its means - at that point people will be looking back fondly on the era of 'austerity' and realise that in fact they never had it so good.
I suggest taking a look at the increasing rough sleeping problem nationwide, which I see a little worse each Christmas. Cuts to multiple wings of services and cuts to benefits are without doubt a key contributor.
Haven't we been told that there were 3,000 rough sleepers in the borough of Brent alone a decade ago ?
And do you really think rough sleepers are in any way indicative of 99% of people in this country ?
We've had this discussion extensively here, and I'm not feeling too inclined to rehash it now. There are key missing elements in services and benefits, and benefit waiting times, that explain some of the recent rise. These changes were marketed under the brand "tightening our belts", so they can reasonably be ascribed to something named austerity.
You might be able to argue that they are cuts but cuts are not the same as 'austerity'.
And this typifies all the claims about 'austerity' - a failure to see the wood for the trees ie lots of comments about rough sleepers or food banks or zero hour contracts or some specific cut in government spending.
While ignoring that during the last decade the government has borrowed over a trillion quid and the UK has been in continuous trade deficit.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
Why don't you fuck off?
That is not acceptable to any poster
No you know what, I don't give a toss anymore. I've tried to be pleasant to people here and they just throw it back in my face. To be fair to you you've always been pleasant but others haven't and it's right they get called out for it.
My view is that I don't think it's right to record a private conversation and then make it public. Everyone has private conversations where they say things that they wouldn't necessarily say in public, and it would be pretty awful if you had to be paranoid every time you did that in case it was going to be made public.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
Why don't you fuck off?
That is not acceptable to any poster
No you know what, I don't give a toss anymore. I've tried to be pleasant to people here and they just throw it back in my face. To be fair to you you've always been pleasant but others haven't and it's right they get called out for it.
You have indeed. Is it just me, or are there far more suspended candidates than usual. As one who has been involved with elections fairly closely in the past, I don't remember so many. There also seem to be more Members retiring than recently.
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
Do you have a day job? Seriously!
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
Why don't you fuck off?
That is not acceptable to any poster
No you know what, I don't give a toss anymore. I've tried to be pleasant to people here and they just throw it back in my face. To be fair to you you've always been pleasant but others haven't and it's right they get called out for it.
There are ways of doing it
And I've tried being pleasant and people don't respect me, so why should I respect them?
Like I said, you've always been pleasant to me so I have treated you in the same way - but others have not. And I am not going to change what I do or so, thank you.
My view is that I don't think it's right to record a private conversation and then make it public.
If it is in the public interest, and I think misgivings of a senior colleague towards a potential future prime minister fits that description, then fair game.
My view is that I don't think it's right to record a private conversation and then make it public.
If it is in the public interest, and I think misgivings of a senior colleague towards a potential future prime minister fits that description, then fair game.
It's strange this is in the public interest and yet documents about trade talks suddenly aren't.
Not a good look for Jonathan Ainsworth on Victoria on BBC
In fact a car crash
You would say that wouldn't you
Only when it is true
Only in your selectively true world, stop pretending you're impartial
I am not impartial when it comes to Corbyn
A lot of focus always goes on Corbyn, but let`s remember who is behind him: McDonnell, Abbott, Pidcock, RLB, Burgon, Butler etc etc. They`ve all got to go in my opinion.
How diferrent the Lab front bench would look with Cooper, Benn, Miliband, Kinnock, Nandy, Flint ...
My view is that I don't think it's right to record a private conversation and then make it public. Everyone has private conversations where they say things that they wouldn't necessarily say in public, and it would be pretty awful if you had to be paranoid every time you did that in case it was going to be made public.
My view is that I don't think it's right to record a private conversation and then make it public.
If it is in the public interest, and I think misgivings of a senior colleague towards a potential future prime minister fits that description, then fair game.
It's strange this is in the public interest and yet documents about trade talks suddenly aren't.
Partisanship strikes again.
I haven't said a word on here about any trade documents so kindly piss off.
So you can't tell us where the 'ten years of shocking austerity' is even though you continually talk about it.
At some point the UK will have to live within its means - at that point people will be looking back fondly on the era of 'austerity' and realise that in fact they never had it so good.
I suggest taking a look at the increasing rough sleeping problem nationwide, which I see a little worse each Christmas. Cuts to multiple wings of services and cuts to benefits are without doubt a key contributor.
And do you really think rough sleepers are in any way indicative of 99% of people in this country ?
We've had this discussion extensively here, and I'm not feeling too inclined to rehash it now. There are key missing elements in services and benefits, and benefit waiting times, that explain some of the recent rise. These changes were marketed under the brand "tightening our belts", so they can reasonably be ascribed to something named austerity.
You might be able to argue that they are cuts but cuts are not the same as 'austerity'.
And this typifies all the claims about 'austerity' - a failure to see the wood for the trees ie lots of comments about rough sleepers or food banks or zero hour contracts or some specific cut in government spending.
While ignoring that during the last decade the government has borrowed over a trillion quid and the UK has been in continuous trade deficit.
But for a long period, particularly before George Osborne changed course, it embarked on a particularly broad-based programme of cuts that were justified on the basis not only of economics, but a protestant ethic - belt-tightening. In particular areas like benefits the cuts continued most strongly after this reduction in the rate of cuts and partial change of course ; hence food banks and higher rough sleepers.
You're arguing about the extent to which ratios of government spending and borrowing indicate austerity, but what happened in the first three or four years of the Cameron goverment particularly is something rather different - a series of cuts justified on the basis of an abstract ethic, not a concrete figure related to gdp.
To illustrate the point, Siberia's fastest growth industry over the last couple of years has been the export to China of mammoth ivory - which had been buried under permafrost for tens of thousands of years.
Fastest growth starting from a zero base!
It's rather an alarming symptom of the climate emergency. The CO2/methane feedback loop from thawing permafrost has set in motion, and it's hard to see how it will be arrested. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permafrost_carbon_cycle
My view is that I don't think it's right to record a private conversation and then make it public.
If it is in the public interest, and I think misgivings of a senior colleague towards a potential future prime minister fits that description, then fair game.
It's strange this is in the public interest and yet documents about trade talks suddenly aren't.
This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.
If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.
We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.
Of course. But that has always been the case.
And yet he will be. It will be a very crap decade, with much worse to come.
My view is that I don't think it's right to record a private conversation and then make it public.
If it is in the public interest, and I think misgivings of a senior colleague towards a potential future prime minister fits that description, then fair game.
It's strange this is in the public interest and yet documents about trade talks suddenly aren't.
My view is that I don't think it's right to record a private conversation and then make it public.
If it is in the public interest, and I think misgivings of a senior colleague towards a potential future prime minister fits that description, then fair game.
It's strange this is in the public interest and yet documents about trade talks suddenly aren't.
Partisanship strikes again.
I haven't said a word on here about any trade documents so kindly piss off.
Comments
It is a pity that they can’t both lose.
If Corbyn had said what Johnson said yesterday about migrants but about the Jews he would have been rightly condemned.
Both leaders are turning their parties into sewers.
I look at the Tory manifesto pledge to weaken the judiciary and think eventually one day a Corbynite will win and the moment we need a strong judiciary to stop the unlawful seizure of assets they’ll have been castrated by a cheering Tory party.
What's really shocking: Delhi and several Chinese cities are like that all the time.
https://rts.org.uk/article/what-comcasts-purchase-sky-means-future-pay-tv-platform
The Con vote is polling just as high if not higher than when she was leader.
She led the SCons to a series of worst ever results.
They only improved under Ruth Davidson when she abandoned the approach she won the leadership election on and adopted the approach of of her rival.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1204342161686323201
European countries have a mix of social insurance and localised funding, as well as central, so it’s not such an immediate political issue.
Tories` fault for coining the phrase in the first place I guess.
There is nothing sensible and moderate about revoke or PM Jo Swinson and both unforced errors reinforced the negative image that she's not serious. It's no different to suggesting PM Farage.
The best result is a Hung Parliament which Corbyn can resign and we can have a Government with a new face of Labour that with LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens, a decent percentage of the population has voted for. Then we can have electoral reform and actually have a working democracy again.
A Hung Parliament is literally the best outcome for PR.
Aberdeen North. The Con candidate has been suspended.
Kirkcaldy is the important one for SNP seat totals. If the absolute bigot Neale Hanvey makes it then that counts as a SNP win.
Jez on the up!
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1204334447467941889?s=20
Anyone else Scottish who’s non-partisan that I speak to has respect for her, and how she reaches out across the political divide. She impresses a lot of one nation Tories too.
I find that rather telling.
One act of the Coalition Government that, IMHO anyway, caused a lot of Harm was the Lansley Act, which placed the day to day management of the NHS outside hospitals in the hands of GP's, who rarely signed up to be either managers or strategic thinkers. It also removed from Health management the sort of thing Ms Cyclefree mentioned; health promotion and disease prevention, and gave it to Local Government.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K-ABf5qs4zTFzHv6koLY0mEJyGi2VGWF4sWswDmJquk/edit#gid=0
Oh fuck.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-world/
To illustrate the point, Siberia's fastest growth industry over the last couple of years has been the export to China of mammoth ivory - which had been buried under permafrost for tens of thousands of years.
Why not go the whole hog and remove voting altogether?
This won't be reported.
But, many of the problems of social care/NHS funding were exacerbated by Blair's reforms (together with the remorseless ageing of the UK population).
E.g., the desperate position that dementia sufferers now face of funding their own care originates in the New Labour reformation of the NHS. (I think, last time I stated this on pb.com, Nick Palmer reluctantly admitted that this was true).
Truth to tell, we will make no progress on NHS or social care funding until the politics is removed. It is just too easy for the parties to blame each other, or cry "Dementia Tax" or "Death Tax" when a funding stream is devised.
Despite the polls, the anecdotes, the lack of any major boo boo by Boris etc. I just have this feeling of after 9 years are the public really going to back the tories for another 5 year term?
And do you really think rough sleepers are in any way indicative of 99% of people in this country ?
I just don’t see it as being credible the West can “stop” before 2050-2060 and probably 2080-2090 for the developing world. Anything more aggressive (which won’t happen) and we’d be facing societal collapse and insurrection, and probably even more deaths.
Therefore, we are going to have to take an awful lot of nasty shit on the chin, and mitigate it.
Fucking hell, is Ashworth trying to lose his job?
So you are right, this will not be a repeat of 1992
Bloody hell, this is naive to the extreme. Although would be interesting to hear what the Tory MP said - I notice that hasn't been released, probably because it's just as bad about Johnson.
In fact a car crash
I have some sympathy* with people who lift their head from their social feeds once a day and feel angry the "MSM" isn't parroting the same old nonsense they've been reading on Breitbart or Novara . Oh well.. once Boris has closed down the BBC and Channel 4 and people have stopped buying quality newspapers, that won't be a problem.
(*in a pitying, exasperated "I wish you'd get your head out of from between your legs and learn to evaluate sources of information in the world around you" kind of way.)
Others:
- Labour PPC for Falkirk (less likely but still vaguely possible Lab gain from SNP)
- Lib Dem PPC for Birmingham, Hodge Hill (will probably be a lost deposit anyway)
- 3 Con PPCs currently suspended:
- Aberdeen North (tiny outside chance of Tory gain from SNP)
- Glasgow Central (no chance)
- Leeds NE (almost no chance)
- Also Leicester South - not sure if candidate is actually suspended, but no chance anyway
- 3 more currently under investigation, in particular Hastings and Rye and Ashfield
The Labour and Lib Dem candidates are still on their respective party websites of
candidate lists. I have emailed both to complain.
It would be good to hear someone else's view occasionally rather than your relentless astro-turfing..
https://mobile.twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1204343443746676736
Never change PB, never change
So dull.
To give credit where it is due OGH's very cheeky Lib Dem letters that went out which he has now distanced himself from had the Lib Dems imprint on the bottom of the letter. If it didn't that would be a breach of existing law which is what is being spoken about.
What the hell is wrong with you?
Have a lovely day.
And this typifies all the claims about 'austerity' - a failure to see the wood for the trees ie lots of comments about rough sleepers or food banks or zero hour contracts or some specific cut in government spending.
While ignoring that during the last decade the government has borrowed over a trillion quid and the UK has been in continuous trade deficit.
To me it seems like a drunken conversation I've had loads of times where I've ranted and raved about how shit Corbyn is
Is it just me, or are there far more suspended candidates than usual. As one who has been involved with elections fairly closely in the past, I don't remember so many.
There also seem to be more Members retiring than recently.
Like I said, you've always been pleasant to me so I have treated you in the same way - but others have not. And I am not going to change what I do or so, thank you.
Partisanship strikes again.
How diferrent the Lab front bench would look with Cooper, Benn, Miliband, Kinnock, Nandy, Flint ...
Ashworth has confirmed the recording is real but is claiming today that it was banter with a friend.
But to be honest it cannot be any worse than we have seen upto polling day
You're arguing about the extent to which ratios of government spending and borrowing indicate austerity, but what happened in the first three or four years of the Cameron goverment particularly is something rather different - a series of cuts justified on the basis of an abstract ethic, not a concrete figure related to gdp.
The CO2/methane feedback loop from thawing permafrost has set in motion, and it's hard to see how it will be arrested.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permafrost_carbon_cycle
And yet he will be. It will be a very crap decade, with much worse to come.
Have a lovely day.