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  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    timple said:

    I have tried some canvassing this election both door step and telephone and the response rate for both is incredibly low. The only demographic I got much feedback from was the elderly. Perhaps everyone here already knows that but how the polling firms can draw accurate predictions given the difficulty in actually contacting abroad swathe of the population is beyond me. There must come a time mathematically where the signal to noise ratio is so low that not even the most sophisticated model can give an accurate answer. What that means for politics I do not know.

    Low in the sense of willingness to disclose, or simply not there at all? I find about 40% are out at any given time, but people are more than usually willing to discuss what many of them see as a difficult dilemma. Because we've got so many people this time, we've been given the reverse of the usual instructions (which are "get their intention and move on") - this time, we've been asked to engage in discussions and persuasion with anyone who seems to be genuinely wavering.

    It's a lot more fun, and at the micro level it does pay off - I suppose I've swung a couple of dozen, which is trivial in itself but if replicated, becomes worthwhile.Of course, you can get trapped - on Sunday I found a Tory who'd managed to entrap the whole of my canvass team into an argument about educational opportunity, grrr.
  • The electorate figures show why a boundary review is long overdue. West Ham now up to 98,871 voters! At the other end of the scale Wirral West has 55,550! They are both Labour held seats in England so no excuse for the disparity.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    On a (small) point of (utterly unimportant) order, the Sheffield rally was on the Wednesday before election week, not the Friday :smiley:

    (I actually thought it was the week of the election.. but apparently not)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Rally

    It was held on the same day an opinion poll came out giving Labour a 7% lead, which would have been enough for an overall majority.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    Breaking

    Adam Boulton making an unreserved apology to Boris Johnson

    Now that is a surprise

    Why?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Breaking

    Adam Boulton making an unreserved apology to Boris Johnson

    Now that is a surprise

    About anything in particular? Any more information?
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

    We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.



    I think jubilant Tories should be very concerned about five years of Johnson as prime minister. Not that there's much chance they can do anything about it if he gets a majority.
    The Tory party is very adept at getting rid of leaders who become a liability.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Andy_JS said:

    On a (small) point of (utterly unimportant) order, the Sheffield rally was on the Wednesday before election week, not the Friday :smiley:

    (I actually thought it was the week of the election.. but apparently not)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Rally

    It was held on the same day an opinion poll came out giving Labour a 7% lead, which would have been enough for an overall majority.
    Huh, so they were all right?
  • On a (small) point of (utterly unimportant) order, the Sheffield rally was on the Wednesday before election week, not the Friday :smiley:

    (I actually thought it was the week of the election.. but apparently not)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Rally

    I’ll be near the venue of the Sheffield Rally shortly.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    edited December 2019

    How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
  • Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Only 9.1m views. Surely it must be near 65m now

    But seriously will you answer the question I posted on the last thread

    Will you guarantee you will still be posting on this forum after friday and beyond like the rest of us

    Why does he have to guarantee you anything?
    Of course he doesn't but it is a fair question
    I'll still be here, I know you'd be very happy getting rid of all of the left-wing voices and turning this into even more of an echo chamber than it already is but I am afraid I won't be going anywhere.
    Really pleased. Thank you for your reply
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

    We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.

    I wonder if yesterday came in time to do some damage. Boris did NOT look good.
    Conversely, in the opinion of self & wife, Corbyn came across well on BBBC this morning. Civilised, calm. Bit like Major really.
    Personal anecdotes I have of people meeting both leaders, is that Corbyn always comes across well and Johnson is very variable. He can be good but also terrible.

    Of course I'm paid for by the Labour Party so take with a grain of salt!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Banterman said:

    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

    We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.



    I think jubilant Tories should be very concerned about five years of Johnson as prime minister. Not that there's much chance they can do anything about it if he gets a majority.
    Why? He was a very decent mayor of London for 8 years. Just look at the disaster Khan has been by comparison.
    Please be my guest to be unconcerned, if you'd prefer not to be!
  • Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Only 9.1m views. Surely it must be near 65m now

    But seriously will you answer the question I posted on the last thread

    Will you guarantee you will still be posting on this forum after friday and beyond like the rest of us

    Why does he have to guarantee you anything?
    Of course he doesn't but it is a fair question
    I'll still be here, I know you'd be very happy getting rid of all of the left-wing voices and turning this into even more of an echo chamber than it already is but I am afraid I won't be going anywhere.
    Really pleased. Thank you for your reply
    You're welcome?
  • How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
    Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.

    HP here we come!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    PeterC said:

    Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

    Is it? Why do you think that? The PLP can't just appoint another leader. There is an elaborate procedure to be followed.
    The PLP don't appoint anyone. But what can be easily done is a temporary leader can stand in - and since McDonnell and Watson will go that leaves Starmer.
    The NEC meet and agree a temporary leader and start the process for an election. This was passed I think at the recent conference.
  • BluerBlue said:

    Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Which number will be greater - the number of views your tedious viral videos get, or the number of votes Labour gets in the election?

    How's the Andrew Neil video doing by the way? We've missed your updates.
    I think this is the sort of thing that cuts through and will do *some* damage but it’s come too little too late for Labour.

    Polling stations open in less than 48 hours and probably ~20% of votes have already been cast.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
    Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.

    HP here we come!
    Except the lead in that poll was 9 points. ;)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Uxbridge: up from 69,936 to 70,369.
  • Chris said:

    Breaking

    Adam Boulton making an unreserved apology to Boris Johnson

    Now that is a surprise

    About anything in particular? Any more information?
    He referred to some comments he had made about Boris last week but I was not sure to what he referred too, but clearly he must have crossed a line to make such a wholesome apology
  • RobD said:

    How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
    Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.

    HP here we come!
    Except the lead in that poll was 9 points. ;)
    PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited December 2019

    Breaking

    Adam Boulton making an unreserved apology to Boris Johnson

    Now that is a surprise

    Deleted
  • Banterman said:

    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

    We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.



    I think jubilant Tories should be very concerned about five years of Johnson as prime minister. Not that there's much chance they can do anything about it if he gets a majority.
    Why? He was a very decent mayor of London for 8 years. Just look at the disaster Khan has been by comparison.
    Khan is worse than Ken *and* Boris.

    I spoke to an ex-nulab SPAD who now works in the private sector, and worked at Crossrail for a while.

    He told me Khan never got a ministerial position under Blair for a very good reason.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    My forecast is still an overall maj of 20-40

    Unchanged from before Boris lack of empathy.

    Sadly the chance for real change decisively rejected imo
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    .

    RobD said:

    How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
    Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.

    HP here we come!
    Except the lead in that poll was 9 points. ;)
    PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
    I'm not sure how it can confirm a seven point lead if it is showing a nine point lead.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    My forecast is still an overall maj of 20-40

    Unchanged from before Boris lack of empathy.

    Sadly the chance for real change decisively rejected imo

    Don't worry. There'll be 24 hours to save the NHS again in a few years. :p
  • Regardless of what you think of the Yoon to Nat narrative, this is a devastatingly accurate description of the SCon campaign. The SCons will be an interesting experiment in how long a party (sub branch) can operate without policies, ideas or aspirations.

    'Step forward the Conservative and Unionist Party. Campaign leaflets from the SNP and Conservative candidates arrived recently at our house near Loch Ness. The SNP’s Drew Hendry spelt out what he is doing at present and intends to do if elected. On the other hand, the Conservative candidate, Fiona Fawcett, told me only that she doesn’t want another referendum and — for that reason alone — I should give her my vote.

    Not a word on any national, regional or local policy. Not a word on Brexit. Not a word on what she personally stands for. I tweeted to point out the contrast and within two hours Dr Fawcett had blocked me. One look at her website does reveal what her priorities would be if elected, and shows that she has an admirable CV in both a professional and a voluntary capacity. I have no animosity towards her. However, I do have lots of questions for Dr Fawcett and other Scottish Tories, despite their keenness to avoid communicating with me. They are doing this all over Scotland. Do they realise that campaign literature of the sort she sent is an insult to our intelligence? Do they think avoiding talking about Brexit just makes it go away? Are they really comfortable campaigning for a man who lies as easily as he breathes, and whose idea of scrutiny is talking to the camera without an interviewer?'

    https://tinyurl.com/tcgz2mj
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    nunu2 said:

    Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

    No it isnt.
    Corbyn is an old, delusional fart. He probably fancies himself as some sort of missionary, to spread communism in this god forsaken land! I still think he's part of some Tory sleeper cell.
    If not for BC( Brexit Corbyn) the tories would never have dreamt of crossing 200 seats. With ten years of shocking austerity and nothing much to show. Still I don't understand why they love bashing him. He's their best friend!
  • I think the trouble is that everyone agrees the NHS is overstretched but simply doesn’t trust Corbyn’s Labour to be any better in doing something about it.
  • Banterman said:

    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

    We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.



    I think jubilant Tories should be very concerned about five years of Johnson as prime minister. Not that there's much chance they can do anything about it if he gets a majority.
    Why? He was a very decent mayor of London for 8 years. Just look at the disaster Khan has been by comparison.
    Khan is worse than Ken *and* Boris.

    I spoke to an ex-nulab SPAD who now works in the private sector, and worked at Crossrail for a while.

    He told me Khan never got a ministerial position under Blair for a very good reason.
    For an obvious reason.

    He only became an MP two years before Blair stood down.

    I mean how many MPs become ministers less than two years after being first elected?
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

    We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.

    I wonder if yesterday came in time to do some damage. Boris did NOT look good.
    Conversely, in the opinion of self & wife, Corbyn came across well on BBBC this morning. Civilised, calm. Bit like Major really.
    I do think the combination of timing (late campaign) and breadth of coverage (10 O'Clock News/newspaper leads) makes The Boy on the Floor a potential Event. As Old King Cole suggests, it also plays into subtle questions of character.

    We heard about a large number of DKs in the weekend polling. And I also suspect there's an extremely soft attachment to the Tories in the Brexit heartlands marginal swing seats. If they turn out to have been Shy Labour by the time Thursday comes, in a sudden pang of yearning for more hospital beds, Boris is in trouble.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
    Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.

    HP here we come!
    No the poll was in Sundays paper and showed Tory lead up from 6 to 9 but preferred PM had narrowed from 14 to 7.

    I think HP at 5.1 yesterday even after ICM was free money.

    Taken and cashed out at 4.6.

    It's now 4.3 that is about right imo.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    PeterC said:

    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

    We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.



    I think jubilant Tories should be very concerned about five years of Johnson as prime minister. Not that there's much chance they can do anything about it if he gets a majority.
    The Tory party is very adept at getting rid of leaders who become a liability.
    Used to be, May almost had to be dragged out.
  • This looks pretty bloody serious to me.

    Australia and Canada seem to be feeling the effects of climate change far worse than we do, or even NZ.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50722650
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    On a (small) point of (utterly unimportant) order, the Sheffield rally was on the Wednesday before election week, not the Friday :smiley:

    (I actually thought it was the week of the election.. but apparently not)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Rally

    I’ll be near the venue of the Sheffield Rally shortly.
    Was he saying "We're alright" or "We're all right"? It's always confused me. What was the context?
  • Banterman said:

    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

    We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.



    I think jubilant Tories should be very concerned about five years of Johnson as prime minister. Not that there's much chance they can do anything about it if he gets a majority.
    Why? He was a very decent mayor of London for 8 years. Just look at the disaster Khan has been by comparison.
    Khan is worse than Ken *and* Boris.

    I spoke to an ex-nulab SPAD who now works in the private sector, and worked at Crossrail for a while.

    He told me Khan never got a ministerial position under Blair for a very good reason.
    For an obvious reason.

    He only became an MP two years before Blair stood down.

    I mean how many MPs become ministers less than two years after being first elected?
    No, that’s not the reason.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019

    This looks pretty bloody serious to me.

    Australia and Canada seem to be feeling the effects of climate change far worse than we do, or even NZ.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50722650

    Every other day of mild winter here over the past few years here seems to have been matched up with a report of terrible heat there.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    Breaking

    Adam Boulton making an unreserved apology to Boris Johnson

    Now that is a surprise

    About anything in particular? Any more information?
    He referred to some comments he had made about Boris last week but I was not sure to what he referred too, but clearly he must have crossed a line to make such a wholesome apology
    Presumably something rather minor. Can't see anything about it on the Sky News site.
  • Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.
  • Regardless of what you think of the Yoon to Nat narrative, this is a devastatingly accurate description of the SCon campaign. The SCons will be an interesting experiment in how long a party (sub branch) can operate without policies, ideas or aspirations.

    'Step forward the Conservative and Unionist Party. Campaign leaflets from the SNP and Conservative candidates arrived recently at our house near Loch Ness. The SNP’s Drew Hendry spelt out what he is doing at present and intends to do if elected. On the other hand, the Conservative candidate, Fiona Fawcett, told me only that she doesn’t want another referendum and — for that reason alone — I should give her my vote.

    Not a word on any national, regional or local policy. Not a word on Brexit. Not a word on what she personally stands for. I tweeted to point out the contrast and within two hours Dr Fawcett had blocked me. One look at her website does reveal what her priorities would be if elected, and shows that she has an admirable CV in both a professional and a voluntary capacity. I have no animosity towards her. However, I do have lots of questions for Dr Fawcett and other Scottish Tories, despite their keenness to avoid communicating with me. They are doing this all over Scotland. Do they realise that campaign literature of the sort she sent is an insult to our intelligence? Do they think avoiding talking about Brexit just makes it go away? Are they really comfortable campaigning for a man who lies as easily as he breathes, and whose idea of scrutiny is talking to the camera without an interviewer?'

    https://tinyurl.com/tcgz2mj

    You see, whenever you post something like that I know you’re worried.

    It’s like how you get the strongest criticism of how useless Ruth Davidson is from Scottish Nationalists. They doth protest too much.

    Good luck for Thursday x
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.

    :o:s
  • moonshine said:

    On a (small) point of (utterly unimportant) order, the Sheffield rally was on the Wednesday before election week, not the Friday :smiley:

    (I actually thought it was the week of the election.. but apparently not)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Rally

    I’ll be near the venue of the Sheffield Rally shortly.
    Was he saying "We're alright" or "We're all right"? It's always confused me. What was the context?
    We're all right!!

    It was in the context of the shadow cabinet being individually brought to the podium as the next Home Secretary etc and culminated in ‘and our next Prime Minister, Neil Kinnock.’
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.

    :o:s
    Who is out on the stump tonight??
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837

    Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Only 9.1m views. Surely it must be near 65m now

    But seriously will you answer the question I posted on the last thread

    Will you guarantee you will still be posting on this forum after friday and beyond like the rest of us

    Why does he have to guarantee you anything?
    Of course he doesn't but it is a fair question
    I'll still be here, I know you'd be very happy getting rid of all of the left-wing voices and turning this into even more of an echo chamber than it already is but I am afraid I won't be going anywhere.
    Come on Horse, this isn't like you. Only a week or two back you were lauding this site for its good-naturedness.
    I don't think anyone wants to get rid of left wing voices. The fact that we can talk to each other without shouting at each other is one of the strengths of the site.
    If emotions are running a tad high with two days to go, I quite understand.
    But there are many non-Tory voices on here: BJO, Sandy Rentool, Nick Palmer, kinbalu, alb1on on the Labout side; OGH, Rochdale Pioneers, nichomar on the Lib Dems; Alistair Meeks, Cyclefree, PtP, OnlyLivingBoy, noneoftheabove in the generally disaffected category;Richard Nabavi, Nigel Foremain, Screaming Eagles in the ex-Tory category; Stuart Dicksob and malcolmg and Ybardsw (sp?) for the nats. Even many of those whi have said they will vite Tory like Topping and Robert Smithson and Byronic are doing so with sigmificant reservarions. As against whuch in the firmly Tory camp there's HYUFD and Marquee Mark and AVFC and North Cadboll and Big G. Now, I've missed many out, and apologies to allwho I have or who I've misplaced, but that doesn't sound like an echo chamber to me.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    I think the trouble is that everyone agrees the NHS is overstretched but simply doesn’t trust Corbyn’s Labour to be any better in doing something about it.

    True, don't think NHS Wales under labour set a sterling example. Probably did worse than NHS England. Heard stories of some elderly patients dying in AE waiting rooms, specially in Morriston, Swansea.
    Is that one reson Labour Wales is down? Anti incumbency
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.

    Ooh exciting. I shall get some whisky and ice ready. Though do I remember that David is no longer politically active because of #proroguegate?

    Who will be the 2019 equivalent? MarqueeMark saying that Totnes is going yellow after all? Or the Horse person throwing in the towel?
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This campaign has done nothing to alter the view of those that know him best, Boris is unfit to be Prime Minister.

    If you believe that social media has any impact - which it obviously does - then that video of Johnson yesterday which has now 9.1M views and still climbing, might have impact in the final days, with those undecided Labour voters. Their fears about the NHS verified, that Johnson doesn’t give a toss.
    Johnson is the worst kind of bully. Superficially charming, but entitled and arrogant. He uses people, lashes out and even acts unlawfully when things don't go well for him. It's all ok as far as he is concerned, because he is Boris. That alone is justification for him.

    We saw another glimpse of that yesterday. He should not be let near number 10, let alone with a majority.

    I wonder if yesterday came in time to do some damage. Boris did NOT look good.
    Conversely, in the opinion of self & wife, Corbyn came across well on BBBC this morning. Civilised, calm. Bit like Major really.
    I do think the combination of timing (late campaign) and breadth of coverage (10 O'Clock News/newspaper leads) makes The Boy on the Floor a potential Event. As Old King Cole suggests, it also plays into subtle questions of character.

    We heard about a large number of DKs in the weekend polling. And I also suspect there's an extremely soft attachment to the Tories in the Brexit heartlands marginal swing seats. If they turn out to have been Shy Labour by the time Thursday comes, in a sudden pang of yearning for more hospital beds, Boris is in trouble.
    Didn't Sunday's Survation show a lot less undecided voters than the previous poll? Iirc it went down to 12% or so.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    PeterC said:

    Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

    Is it? Why do you think that? The PLP can't just appoint another leader. There is an elaborate procedure to be followed.
    The PLP don't appoint anyone. But what can be easily done is a temporary leader can stand in - and since McDonnell and Watson will go that leaves Starmer.
    Law firms sort (or at least used to sort) partners Into three categories:

    A. Finders;
    B. Minders; and
    C. Grinders.

    Most lawyers are, by temperament, grinders. They work hard and know how to get things done. The Minders are able to keep clients and grind if needed. Between them they are the bedrock of any partnership. The Finders are key to growth. They have the charm and reputation to grow the business although they are frequently indifferent lawyers.

    Why am I saying this? Because Starmer seems best suited as a grinder with minder elements. He can follow a brief very effectively and construct an argument supporting it. However, he doesn’t seem to have the Finder characteristics to grow Labour. In short, probably good lawyer, indifferent leader (see Blair for the polar opposite of this).
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Breaking

    Adam Boulton making an unreserved apology to Boris Johnson

    Now that is a surprise

    About anything in particular? Any more information?
    He referred to some comments he had made about Boris last week but I was not sure to what he referred too, but clearly he must have crossed a line to make such a wholesome apology
    Presumably something rather minor. Can't see anything about it on the Sky News site.
    He did not think it was minor. I have never heard a broadcaster make such a personal and protracted apology anywhere

    Try and view if on play back
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.

    Didn't David sort of retract his canvassing experience the following day?

    Or is it my false recollection?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    moonshine said:

    On a (small) point of (utterly unimportant) order, the Sheffield rally was on the Wednesday before election week, not the Friday :smiley:

    (I actually thought it was the week of the election.. but apparently not)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Rally

    I’ll be near the venue of the Sheffield Rally shortly.
    Was he saying "We're alright" or "We're all right"? It's always confused me. What was the context?
    We're all right!!

    It was in the context of the shadow cabinet being individually brought to the podium as the next Home Secretary etc and culminated in ‘and our next Prime Minister, Neil Kinnock.’
    That seems like an odd thing to say in that context but I guess he had a reason.
  • moonshine said:

    Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.

    Ooh exciting. I shall get some whisky and ice ready. Though do I remember that David is no longer politically active because of #proroguegate?

    Who will be the 2019 equivalent? MarqueeMark saying that Totnes is going yellow after all? Or the Horse person throwing in the towel?
    Yup David and myself are hors de combat.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Breaking

    Adam Boulton making an unreserved apology to Boris Johnson

    Now that is a surprise

    Link?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    My forecast is still an overall maj of 20-40

    Unchanged from before Boris lack of empathy.

    Sadly the chance for real change decisively rejected imo

    I agree about 20 to 40.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    I think the trouble is that everyone agrees the NHS is overstretched but simply doesn’t trust Corbyn’s Labour to be any better in doing something about it.

    I find it bizarre the way the NHS becomes the most important political issue in every election. It is absurd. It is not the case in elections in other European countries. It becomes such a political issue that any chance of sensible steps - as per the very good post by @RobinWiggs (on the previous thread) - become impossible.

    On a personal level I am very conscious that, especially with my medical history, I need to take much more responsibility for my own health. I don’t smoke, drink very little but I do like my bread and pasta so need to lose some weight.

    I suppose I better be off for a long walk then .....
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    The boy on the floor ...

    I think the thing that irritates me is that Labour are running the NHS, and have been running it for the last two decades.

    In Wales.

    Labour would be on stronger ground if they could point to the Welsh NHS and say look how well we have done. In fact, the Welsh NHS is well, well behind the English and Scottish NHS.

    My uncle died in a Welsh NHS hospital a few year ago now. He fell off his bed in a geriatric ward, and no-one noticed for 10 hours and he died on the floor.

    An uncle on a floor. Less photogenic than a boy, as he was old and decrepit.
  • Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.

    Didn't David sort of retract his canvassing experience the following day?

    Or is it my false recollection?
    IIRC he didn’t retract it more said the Tories were going to win but not the landslide majority.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited December 2019
    Economy 0% growth in the 3 months to October
  • melcf said:

    nunu2 said:

    Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

    No it isnt.
    Corbyn is an old, delusional fart. He probably fancies himself as some sort of missionary, to spread communism in this god forsaken land! I still think he's part of some Tory sleeper cell.
    If not for BC( Brexit Corbyn) the tories would never have dreamt of crossing 200 seats. With ten years of shocking austerity and nothing much to show. Still I don't understand why they love bashing him. He's their best friend!
    What austerity is that ?

    During the last ten years the government has borrowed over a trillion quid while the UK has run continuous trade deficits.

    Could you tell us where the austerity is please.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    On a (small) point of (utterly unimportant) order, the Sheffield rally was on the Wednesday before election week, not the Friday :smiley:

    (I actually thought it was the week of the election.. but apparently not)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Rally

    I’ll be near the venue of the Sheffield Rally shortly.
    Was he saying "We're alright" or "We're all right"? It's always confused me. What was the context?
    We're all right!!

    It was in the context of the shadow cabinet being individually brought to the podium as the next Home Secretary etc and culminated in ‘and our next Prime Minister, Neil Kinnock.’
    That seems like an odd thing to say in that context but I guess he had a reason.
    He said in an interview he did it because it was the sort of thing Johnny Cash does.

    Odd, because what Johnny Cash says is "I'm Johnny Cash".
  • Regardless of what you think of the Yoon to Nat narrative, this is a devastatingly accurate description of the SCon campaign. The SCons will be an interesting experiment in how long a party (sub branch) can operate without policies, ideas or aspirations.

    'Step forward the Conservative and Unionist Party. Campaign leaflets from the SNP and Conservative candidates arrived recently at our house near Loch Ness. The SNP’s Drew Hendry spelt out what he is doing at present and intends to do if elected. On the other hand, the Conservative candidate, Fiona Fawcett, told me only that she doesn’t want another referendum and — for that reason alone — I should give her my vote.

    Not a word on any national, regional or local policy. Not a word on Brexit. Not a word on what she personally stands for. I tweeted to point out the contrast and within two hours Dr Fawcett had blocked me. One look at her website does reveal what her priorities would be if elected, and shows that she has an admirable CV in both a professional and a voluntary capacity. I have no animosity towards her. However, I do have lots of questions for Dr Fawcett and other Scottish Tories, despite their keenness to avoid communicating with me. They are doing this all over Scotland. Do they realise that campaign literature of the sort she sent is an insult to our intelligence? Do they think avoiding talking about Brexit just makes it go away? Are they really comfortable campaigning for a man who lies as easily as he breathes, and whose idea of scrutiny is talking to the camera without an interviewer?'

    https://tinyurl.com/tcgz2mj

    You see, whenever you post something like that I know you’re worried.

    It’s like how you get the strongest criticism of how useless Ruth Davidson is from Scottish Nationalists. They doth protest too much.

    Good luck for Thursday x
    Posting a link to a piece in arch Unionist organ The Times is a sign of worry? Who knew?

    Of course events have richly justified Nats' view of Ruth.
  • matt said:

    PeterC said:

    Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

    Is it? Why do you think that? The PLP can't just appoint another leader. There is an elaborate procedure to be followed.
    The PLP don't appoint anyone. But what can be easily done is a temporary leader can stand in - and since McDonnell and Watson will go that leaves Starmer.
    Law firms sort (or at least used to sort) partners Into three categories:

    A. Finders;
    B. Minders; and
    C. Grinders.

    Most lawyers are, by temperament, grinders. They work hard and know how to get things done. The Minders are able to keep clients and grind if needed. Between them they are the bedrock of any partnership. The Finders are key to growth. They have the charm and reputation to grow the business although they are frequently indifferent lawyers.

    Why am I saying this? Because Starmer seems best suited as a grinder with minder elements. He can follow a brief very effectively and construct an argument supporting it. However, he doesn’t seem to have the Finder characteristics to grow Labour. In short, probably good lawyer, indifferent leader (see Blair for the polar opposite of this).
    My view for sometime is that McDonnell will be the brains behind Starmer.
  • This looks pretty bloody serious to me.

    Australia and Canada seem to be feeling the effects of climate change far worse than we do, or even NZ.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50722650

    Every other day of mild winter here over the past few years here seems to have been matched up with a report of terrible heat there.

    This looks pretty bloody serious to me.

    Australia and Canada seem to be feeling the effects of climate change far worse than we do, or even NZ.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50722650

    Every other day of mild winter here over the past few years here seems to have been matched up with a report of terrible heat there.
    I texted a friend who lives in Sydney yesterday and she said it was just terrible and not going away.

    Apparently it is like smoking 150 cigarettes a day

    Just think of that stat
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318


    The boy on the floor ...

    I think the thing that irritates me is that Labour are running the NHS, and have been running it for the last two decades.

    In Wales.

    Labour would be on stronger ground if they could point to the Welsh NHS and say look how well we have done. In fact, the Welsh NHS is well, well behind the English and Scottish NHS.

    My uncle died in a Welsh NHS hospital a few year ago now. He fell off his bed in a geriatric ward, and no-one noticed for 10 hours and he died on the floor.

    An uncle on a floor. Less photogenic than a boy, as he was old and decrepit.

    I am very sorry to hear this. What an awful end.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    edited December 2019

    moonshine said:

    Relatively speaking to the 2017 campaign it was this evening David Herdson posted that update.

    Ooh exciting. I shall get some whisky and ice ready. Though do I remember that David is no longer politically active because of #proroguegate?

    Who will be the 2019 equivalent? MarqueeMark saying that Totnes is going yellow after all? Or the Horse person throwing in the towel?
    Yup David and myself are hors de combat.
    It would be interesting to read more of a personal piece from either of you on what it's been like to go from being so politically engaged that you were canvassers to sitting on the sidelines of an election. Because if we are honest being a canvasser is a pretty fringe activity.

    Will your heart be a flutter at 9.59 for any reason other than your betfair account? Or will you be at the local Odeon watching Cats?
  • RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
    Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.

    HP here we come!
    Except the lead in that poll was 9 points. ;)
    PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
    I'm not sure how it can confirm a seven point lead if it is showing a nine point lead.

    39-32 = 7

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19
  • melcf said:

    nunu2 said:

    Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

    No it isnt.
    Corbyn is an old, delusional fart. He probably fancies himself as some sort of missionary, to spread communism in this god forsaken land! I still think he's part of some Tory sleeper cell.
    If not for BC( Brexit Corbyn) the tories would never have dreamt of crossing 200 seats. With ten years of shocking austerity and nothing much to show. Still I don't understand why they love bashing him. He's their best friend!
    What austerity is that ?

    During the last ten years the government has borrowed over a trillion quid while the UK has run continuous trade deficits.

    Could you tell us where the austerity is please.
    Austerity never works, as that nice Mr Osborne was warned at the time, just before he choked off the recovery inherited from Labour. Ask Boris.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    melcf said:

    nunu2 said:

    Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

    No it isnt.
    Corbyn is an old, delusional fart. He probably fancies himself as some sort of missionary, to spread communism in this god forsaken land! I still think he's part of some Tory sleeper cell.
    If not for BC( Brexit Corbyn) the tories would never have dreamt of crossing 200 seats. With ten years of shocking austerity and nothing much to show. Still I don't understand why they love bashing him. He's their best friend!
    What austerity is that ?

    During the last ten years the government has borrowed over a trillion quid while the UK has run continuous trade deficits.

    Could you tell us where the austerity is please.
    Ask the baldy that question and many more unseen, unheard plebs

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49577250
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited December 2019

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
    Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.

    HP here we come!
    Except the lead in that poll was 9 points. ;)
    PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
    I'm not sure how it can confirm a seven point lead if it is showing a nine point lead.

    39-32 = 7

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19
    Even when factoring that in it is a nine point lead on the VI.
  • I think the trouble is that everyone agrees the NHS is overstretched but simply doesn’t trust Corbyn’s Labour to be any better in doing something about it.

    There is that - not helped by Labour's policy of paying NHS employees five days wages for four days work.

    But underlying is the fact that few people want to pay more taxes for better public services and even fewer think they would get better public services if they paid more taxes.

    Of course most people are happy for other people to pay more taxes to fund public services.

  • The boy on the floor ...

    I think the thing that irritates me is that Labour are running the NHS, and have been running it for the last two decades.

    In Wales.

    Labour would be on stronger ground if they could point to the Welsh NHS and say look how well we have done. In fact, the Welsh NHS is well, well behind the English and Scottish NHS.

    My uncle died in a Welsh NHS hospital a few year ago now. He fell off his bed in a geriatric ward, and no-one noticed for 10 hours and he died on the floor.

    An uncle on a floor. Less photogenic than a boy, as he was old and decrepit.

    That’s awful.

    So sorry to hear that.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Make this guy the next Labour leader, he gets it!
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    Economy 0% growth in the 3 months to October

    Not a problem, have oven ready brexit, job done. You have Bojo's name on it.
  • Mr. Cwsc, my deepest sympathies.
  • Cyclefree said:

    I think the trouble is that everyone agrees the NHS is overstretched but simply doesn’t trust Corbyn’s Labour to be any better in doing something about it.

    I find it bizarre the way the NHS becomes the most important political issue in every election. It is absurd. It is not the case in elections in other European countries. It becomes such a political issue that any chance of sensible steps - as per the very good post by @RobinWiggs (on the previous thread) - become impossible.

    On a personal level I am very conscious that, especially with my medical history, I need to take much more responsibility for my own health. I don’t smoke, drink very little but I do like my bread and pasta so need to lose some weight.

    I suppose I better be off for a long walk then .....
    It becomes that way because its a nationalised service and dependent on the largesse of the Treasury.

    In the very long term I think the government should look at extending mandatory private cover to those in work, in the same way they have for private pensions.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019
    Did someone mention a Kantar poll for today ?
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275

    matt said:

    PeterC said:

    Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

    Is it? Why do you think that? The PLP can't just appoint another leader. There is an elaborate procedure to be followed.
    The PLP don't appoint anyone. But what can be easily done is a temporary leader can stand in - and since McDonnell and Watson will go that leaves Starmer.
    Law firms sort (or at least used to sort) partners Into three categories:

    A. Finders;
    B. Minders; and
    C. Grinders.

    Most lawyers are, by temperament, grinders. They work hard and know how to get things done. The Minders are able to keep clients and grind if needed. Between them they are the bedrock of any partnership. The Finders are key to growth. They have the charm and reputation to grow the business although they are frequently indifferent lawyers.

    Why am I saying this? Because Starmer seems best suited as a grinder with minder elements. He can follow a brief very effectively and construct an argument supporting it. However, he doesn’t seem to have the Finder characteristics to grow Labour. In short, probably good lawyer, indifferent leader (see Blair for the polar opposite of this).
    My view for sometime is that McDonnell will be the brains behind Starmer.
    McDonnell will be gone with Corbyn.
  • nunu2 said:

    Breaking

    Adam Boulton making an unreserved apology to Boris Johnson

    Now that is a surprise

    Link?
    I can only suggest you watch Sky news on playback from 9.00ish
  • melcf said:

    melcf said:

    nunu2 said:

    Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

    No it isnt.
    Corbyn is an old, delusional fart. He probably fancies himself as some sort of missionary, to spread communism in this god forsaken land! I still think he's part of some Tory sleeper cell.
    If not for BC( Brexit Corbyn) the tories would never have dreamt of crossing 200 seats. With ten years of shocking austerity and nothing much to show. Still I don't understand why they love bashing him. He's their best friend!
    What austerity is that ?

    During the last ten years the government has borrowed over a trillion quid while the UK has run continuous trade deficits.

    Could you tell us where the austerity is please.
    Ask the baldy that question and many more unseen, unheard plebs

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49577250
    So you can't tell us where the 'ten years of shocking austerity' is even though you continually talk about it.
  • PeterC said:

    matt said:

    PeterC said:

    Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

    Is it? Why do you think that? The PLP can't just appoint another leader. There is an elaborate procedure to be followed.
    The PLP don't appoint anyone. But what can be easily done is a temporary leader can stand in - and since McDonnell and Watson will go that leaves Starmer.
    Law firms sort (or at least used to sort) partners Into three categories:

    A. Finders;
    B. Minders; and
    C. Grinders.

    Most lawyers are, by temperament, grinders. They work hard and know how to get things done. The Minders are able to keep clients and grind if needed. Between them they are the bedrock of any partnership. The Finders are key to growth. They have the charm and reputation to grow the business although they are frequently indifferent lawyers.

    Why am I saying this? Because Starmer seems best suited as a grinder with minder elements. He can follow a brief very effectively and construct an argument supporting it. However, he doesn’t seem to have the Finder characteristics to grow Labour. In short, probably good lawyer, indifferent leader (see Blair for the polar opposite of this).
    My view for sometime is that McDonnell will be the brains behind Starmer.
    McDonnell will be gone with Corbyn.
    He won't be in the foreground anymore - but he'll be in the background.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
    Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.

    HP here we come!
    Except the lead in that poll was 9 points. ;)
    PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
    I'm not sure how it can confirm a seven point lead if it is showing a nine point lead.

    39-32 = 7

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19
    Even when factoring that in it is a nine point lead on the VI.
    I clearly referred to preferred PM though, which was my whole point. Historically my understanding is preferred PM has predicted the final result better than headline intention.
  • 60 hours till polls close.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Did someone mention a Kantar poll coming up today ?

    I did, but I'm going by the past 3 weeks release on tuesday, they might delay till tomorrow to make it eve of poll?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    nunu2 said:

    Breaking

    Adam Boulton making an unreserved apology to Boris Johnson

    Now that is a surprise

    Link?
    It was about 35 minutes ago on this live stream, at about 9:20 am. You can rewind.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166


    The boy on the floor ...

    I think the thing that irritates me is that Labour are running the NHS, and have been running it for the last two decades.

    In Wales.

    Labour would be on stronger ground if they could point to the Welsh NHS and say look how well we have done. In fact, the Welsh NHS is well, well behind the English and Scottish NHS.

    My uncle died in a Welsh NHS hospital a few year ago now. He fell off his bed in a geriatric ward, and no-one noticed for 10 hours and he died on the floor.

    An uncle on a floor. Less photogenic than a boy, as he was old and decrepit.


    I hate Tories but I support every word you have written about NHS Wales. I have heard,from reliable sources, of people passing away in AE waiting areas.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316


    The boy on the floor ...

    I think the thing that irritates me is that Labour are running the NHS, and have been running it for the last two decades.

    In Wales.

    Labour would be on stronger ground if they could point to the Welsh NHS and say look how well we have done. In fact, the Welsh NHS is well, well behind the English and Scottish NHS.

    My uncle died in a Welsh NHS hospital a few year ago now. He fell off his bed in a geriatric ward, and no-one noticed for 10 hours and he died on the floor.

    An uncle on a floor. Less photogenic than a boy, as he was old and decrepit.

    That’s awful: my sympathies :(

    I think one defence Labour might point to on the “why haven’t you fixed the NHS in Wales?” question is that one of the biggest problems the NHS is currently having is bed blocking by geriatric patients who can’t go home but don’t actually need to be in hospital. Social care budgets have been cut to the bone as the government has cut local authority budgets - it’s hard to see how any locality in the UK can “fix the NHS” without fixing social care provision somehow & that requires co-operation from central government.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited December 2019

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    .

    RobD said:

    How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
    Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.

    HP here we come!
    Except the lead in that poll was 9 points. ;)
    PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
    I'm not sure how it can confirm a seven point lead if it is showing a nine point lead.

    39-32 = 7

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19
    Even when factoring that in it is a nine point lead on the VI.
    I clearly referred to preferred PM though, which was my whole point. Historically my understanding is preferred PM has predicted the final result better than headline intention.
    Sorry, I thought "confirming the 7 point lead" referred to the seven point VI lead you think it is in reality.

    Edit: and I don't think there is a direct 1:1 mapping between lead in preferred PM and VI.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Cyclefree said:


    The boy on the floor ...

    I think the thing that irritates me is that Labour are running the NHS, and have been running it for the last two decades.

    In Wales.

    Labour would be on stronger ground if they could point to the Welsh NHS and say look how well we have done. In fact, the Welsh NHS is well, well behind the English and Scottish NHS.

    My uncle died in a Welsh NHS hospital a few year ago now. He fell off his bed in a geriatric ward, and no-one noticed for 10 hours and he died on the floor.

    An uncle on a floor. Less photogenic than a boy, as he was old and decrepit.

    I am very sorry to hear this. What an awful end.
    It was a sad end, & the family were of course distressed at the time.

    But, I can see that my uncle had a joyful and successful life, and he lived till his late seventies. Late in life, he returned to the small Welsh village in which he was born. He was not within easy distance of his children.

    My feeling is that a small boy, with loving parents, will be fine in the NHS. If something is wrong, the parents will fight like tigers to get the right treatment.

    It is the elderly, perhaps a little confused, with distant children who cannot always be present -- they are the ones to which bad accidents really can happen in hospitals through neglect. They have no-one to speak up for them in a timely manner when things go wrong.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    My sympathies, @YBarddCwsc
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Phil said:


    The boy on the floor ...

    I think the thing that irritates me is that Labour are running the NHS, and have been running it for the last two decades.

    In Wales.

    Labour would be on stronger ground if they could point to the Welsh NHS and say look how well we have done. In fact, the Welsh NHS is well, well behind the English and Scottish NHS.

    My uncle died in a Welsh NHS hospital a few year ago now. He fell off his bed in a geriatric ward, and no-one noticed for 10 hours and he died on the floor.

    An uncle on a floor. Less photogenic than a boy, as he was old and decrepit.

    That’s awful: my sympathies :(

    I think one defence Labour might point to on the “why haven’t you fixed the NHS in Wales?” question is that one of the biggest problems the NHS is currently having is bed blocking by geriatric patients who can’t go home but don’t actually need to be in hospital. Social care budgets have been cut to the bone as the government has cut local authority budgets - it’s hard to see how any locality in the UK can “fix the NHS” without fixing social care provision somehow & that requires co-operation from central government.
    True ---- BUT Labour were in power in Westminster for many than half of the two decades.

    They could -- and should -- have fixed the problem when they were in power in Westminster.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    RobD said:

    How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
    Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.

    HP here we come!
    Except the lead in that poll was 9 points. ;)
    PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
    May be they missed out Prime Minster Jo??
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited December 2019
    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
    Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.

    HP here we come!
    Except the lead in that poll was 9 points. ;)
    PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
    May be they missed out Prime Minster Jo??
    Here's other polling with this question. Unsurprisingly, Swinson is a distant third.

    https://britainelects.newstatesman.com/preferred-primeminister/

    Funny we aren't seeing those Survation numbers posted here frequently. :)
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    matt said:

    PeterC said:

    Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

    Is it? Why do you think that? The PLP can't just appoint another leader. There is an elaborate procedure to be followed.
    The PLP don't appoint anyone. But what can be easily done is a temporary leader can stand in - and since McDonnell and Watson will go that leaves Starmer.
    Law firms sort (or at least used to sort) partners Into three categories:

    A. Finders;
    B. Minders; and
    C. Grinders.

    Most lawyers are, by temperament, grinders. They work hard and know how to get things done. The Minders are able to keep clients and grind if needed. Between them they are the bedrock of any partnership. The Finders are key to growth. They have the charm and reputation to grow the business although they are frequently indifferent lawyers.

    Why am I saying this? Because Starmer seems best suited as a grinder with minder elements. He can follow a brief very effectively and construct an argument supporting it. However, he doesn’t seem to have the Finder characteristics to grow Labour. In short, probably good lawyer, indifferent leader (see Blair for the polar opposite of this).
    My view for sometime is that McDonnell will be the brains behind Starmer.
    You miss the point. Starmer has the brains. He doesn’t do what he did without them and I suspect is far, far brighter than McDonnell. He lacks seller characteristics.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I just clarified with Shadsy that Candidates who have been suspended after nominations closed will settle as the party they were a memeber of.

    This could be important for SNP over/under seat totals.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    The electorate figures show why a boundary review is long overdue. West Ham now up to 98,871 voters! At the other end of the scale Wirral West has 55,550! They are both Labour held seats in England so no excuse for the disparity.
    I therefore don't see why the Isle of Wight couldn't be split into two. Doesn't it have 140,000 electors? So if split in two, it'd still each be bigger than Wirral West.

    I do recall the Wirral was going to be reduced to three seats at the boundary review (from Wallasey, Wirral West, Wirral South and Birkenhead) which is probably long overdue.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited December 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    I think the trouble is that everyone agrees the NHS is overstretched but simply doesn’t trust Corbyn’s Labour to be any better in doing something about it.

    I find it bizarre the way the NHS becomes the most important political issue in every election. It is absurd. It is not the case in elections in other European countries. It becomes such a political issue that any chance of sensible steps - as per the very good post by @RobinWiggs (on the previous thread) - become impossible.

    On a personal level I am very conscious that, especially with my medical history, I need to take much more responsibility for my own health. I don’t smoke, drink very little but I do like my bread and pasta so need to lose some weight.

    I suppose I better be off for a long walk then .....
    It becomes that way because its a nationalised service and dependent on the largesse of the Treasury.

    In the very long term I think the government should look at extending mandatory private cover to those in work, in the same way they have for private pensions.
    It’s paid for by the state in other European countries too. So that can’t be the reason.

    The fact that Labour see it as their best political card is utterly disastrous for the NHS as it makes any sensible grown up cross party discussion about how to provide cost effective health and social care more or less impossible.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Graph in original posts shows how the markets over reacted to the early northern constituencies swinging to the Tories. Exactly as the YouGov MRP foretold.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    Phil said:


    The boy on the floor ...

    I think the thing that irritates me is that Labour are running the NHS, and have been running it for the last two decades.

    In Wales.

    Labour would be on stronger ground if they could point to the Welsh NHS and say look how well we have done. In fact, the Welsh NHS is well, well behind the English and Scottish NHS.

    My uncle died in a Welsh NHS hospital a few year ago now. He fell off his bed in a geriatric ward, and no-one noticed for 10 hours and he died on the floor.

    An uncle on a floor. Less photogenic than a boy, as he was old and decrepit.

    That’s awful: my sympathies :(

    I think one defence Labour might point to on the “why haven’t you fixed the NHS in Wales?” question is that one of the biggest problems the NHS is currently having is bed blocking by geriatric patients who can’t go home but don’t actually need to be in hospital. Social care budgets have been cut to the bone as the government has cut local authority budgets - it’s hard to see how any locality in the UK can “fix the NHS” without fixing social care provision somehow & that requires co-operation from central government.
    True ---- BUT Labour were in power in Westminster for many than half of the two decades.

    They could -- and should -- have fixed the problem when they were in power in Westminster.
    Even if they did - the local authority budget cuts up north are so extreme that unless it's legally required then it isn't in the budget,

    And often even if it's legally required it's only being provided to those who know it has to be provided - if the council can fob you off they will.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    melcf said:

    RobD said:

    How good or bad a job do you think the following politicians are doing?

    Johnson:

    Bad 42%
    Good 38%
    Neither 16%
    Don't know 4%

    Corbyn:

    Bad 56%
    Good 24%
    Neither 15%
    Don't know 5%

    Swinson:

    Bad 44%
    Neither 27%
    Good 19%
    Don't know 10%

    Panelbase 4-6 Dec
    #GE2019 #bbcr4today

    Who would you prefer as PM

    Jester 39%

    Jezza 32%

    BMG 7.12.19

    Narrower margin than the VI of that poll
    Another poll confirming the 7 point lead. It's possibly 7 points - and I think it will squeeze in the final days.

    HP here we come!
    Except the lead in that poll was 9 points. ;)
    PM preferred is 7 points, that is what I referred to.
    May be they missed out Prime Minster Jo??
    I know I`ll be shouted down but I think that Swinson has been harshly criticised over this. Of more substance is that the public seem to have taken against her due to things like dress and voice pitch, which is a shame.
  • melcf said:

    melcf said:

    nunu2 said:

    Corbyn will resign regardless of how many seats he wins. That much is obvious.

    No it isnt.
    Corbyn is an old, delusional fart. He probably fancies himself as some sort of missionary, to spread communism in this god forsaken land! I still think he's part of some Tory sleeper cell.
    If not for BC( Brexit Corbyn) the tories would never have dreamt of crossing 200 seats. With ten years of shocking austerity and nothing much to show. Still I don't understand why they love bashing him. He's their best friend!
    What austerity is that ?

    During the last ten years the government has borrowed over a trillion quid while the UK has run continuous trade deficits.

    Could you tell us where the austerity is please.
    Ask the baldy that question and many more unseen, unheard plebs

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49577250
    So you can't tell us where the 'ten years of shocking austerity' is even though you continually talk about it.
    The meme that the UK has been suffering under austerity is worthy of some academic research.

    IMO it originated because Labour wanted to use opposition to 'austerity' for electoral purposes and George Osborne was happy to play along so he could act the Thatcherite hardman.

    Whereas the reality was a trillion quid of government borrowing and a continuous trade deficit.

    At some point the UK will have to live within its means - at that point people will be looking back fondly on the era of 'austerity' and realise that in fact they never had it so good.
This discussion has been closed.