politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the debates, a plethora of polls and Andrew Neil – a CON
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Nothing too surprising except for Chingford. Would've expected a majority in the 5-10% range. The seat is pretty much 50/50 on Brexit so it isn't somewhere you'd expect a swing to labour (unlike Putney for instance).bigjohnowls said:Tim Shipman
Datapraxis seat projections:
Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Putney, but 1% behind Lib Dems in Winchester
IDS only 2% up in Chingford and could lose to a squeeze
Swinson 5% up but SNP closing
Raab 6% up and pulling away0 -
I think IDS will hold on, he is a good constituency MP and the LD vote has already been squeezed hard but Chingford is now slightly more Labour than the national averagebigjohnowls said:Tim Shipman
Datapraxis seat projections:
Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Putney, but 1% behind Lib Dems in Winchester
IDS only 2% up in Chingford and could lose to a squeeze
Swinson 5% up but SNP closing
Raab 6% up and pulling away0 -
So he choses to mention four south eastern Conservative seats, one Scottish LibDem seat and no Labour ?TheScreamingEagles said:IDS = In Deep Shit?
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1203429004797206528
Some of the media are perhaps resentful that the main battleground is all a bit too northern and working class for their preference.2 -
I assume it's something to do with Klingons, given the name.FrancisUrquhart said:Datapraxis - What is their background?
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Gap during this campaign.....
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This is entirely in line with my prediction of a 20-40 seat Tory majority, and I now declare this to be the new gold standard.maaarsh said:Tim Shipman
@ShippersUnbound
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2m
EXC: Datapraxis MRP model gives Tories a majority of 38
Con 344 (+27)
Lab 221 (-41)
LD 14 (+2)
SNP 47 (+12)
PC 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
This is based on a staggering 500,000 YouGov interviews but the model is from Datapraxis. Their last MRP, two weeks ago gave a majority of 480 -
Boris wins on the likeability scores against Corbyn with the public, though.Gallowgate said:
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.humbugger said:
Corbyn, of course.Gallowgate said:
Based on what?GIN1138 said:
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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Fortunately those of us in a seat with a third party in contention are able to make a more positive contribution with our vote.ydoethur said:
He is a known equally detestable factor. Corbyn is an unknown one, with the important exception he had all of Johnson’s facts but much less experience and intelligence, and with a weaker team around him.Gallowgate said:
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.humbugger said:
Corbyn, of course.Gallowgate said:
Based on what?GIN1138 said:
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:
In this case, therefore, faced with a choice of two evils, the probabilities of how undecideds will break would appear to be (1) abstention (2) vote for the devil you know (3) vote for the devil you don’t.
Corbyn isn’t in the box seat to take advantage of indecision. Not to say it’s impossible, but it’s less likely than the alternatives.0 -
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Indeed, Johnson is a philandering, mendacious, disengenious, racist little sh*t!Gallowgate said:
Boris Johnson has 55 years of baggage.funkhauser said:
Nope, Corbyn has 40 years of baggage.Gallowgate said:
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.humbugger said:
Corbyn, of course.Gallowgate said:
Based on what?GIN1138 said:
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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He's tweeting other seats as we speak.another_richard said:
So he choses to mention four south eastern Conservative seats, one Scottish LibDem seat and no Labour ?TheScreamingEagles said:IDS = In Deep Shit?
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1203429004797206528
Some of the media are perhaps resentful that the main battleground is all a bit too northern and working class for their preference.0 -
I am seeing truly epic levels of self delusion in this post. Sanders is falling apart in the States, Corbyn is reviled in the UK and Socialism is rejected by the overwhelming majority of people for the simple reason it doesn’t work - at a most basic level, it makes people much poorer. Why do you suppose every country that has tried Socialism except North Korea and Venezuela has now abandoned it?MissScarlett said:
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruptionTheScreamingEagles said:Asking for a friend.
What if you have red shoes and don't like Corbyn?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1203250070268907520
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
But then, the first two posts were not exactly impressive.
If Labour can’t put up better than this to explain their policies, no wonder they’re struggling.0 -
I think SuperJo will be fine. She is the future! 😊bigjohnowls said:Tim Shipman
Datapraxis seat projections:
Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Putney, but 1% behind Lib Dems in Winchester
IDS only 2% up in Chingford and could lose to a squeeze
Swinson 5% up but SNP closing
Raab 6% up and pulling away0 -
Totally O/T - This big fight is crap.0
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There is no Green candidate in Chingford unlike 2017, boosting Labour, there is a Green candidate in PutneyNobidexx said:
Nothing too surprising except for Chingford. Would've expected a majority in the 5-10% range. The seat is pretty much 50/50 on Brexit so it isn't somewhere you'd expect a swing to labour (unlike Putney for instance).bigjohnowls said:Tim Shipman
Datapraxis seat projections:
Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Putney, but 1% behind Lib Dems in Winchester
IDS only 2% up in Chingford and could lose to a squeeze
Swinson 5% up but SNP closing
Raab 6% up and pulling away0 -
Took me three years...Sandpit said:
Sounds like a few fun days working it out!Fysics_Teacher said:
The centres of Oxford and Cambridge might beat that, but only if you count the college bars.Sandpit said:
It used to be said (in 1996 was I was an undergrad in Aber) that it had the highest density of licensed premises of any town in the UK. Something like 55 within half a square mile.Fysics_Teacher said:
No, though I visited a relative there once. She was doing her PhD. I was a bit too young for the pub though.ydoethur said:
You’ve never lived in Aberystwyth!Fysics_Teacher said:
There is no such thing as too many pubs.ydoethur said:
They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.Nobidexx said:
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.Black_Rook said:
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.Bufton_Tufton said:The Tories seem to be getting rather jumpy in St. Ives. Sajid Javid visited on Thursday and now Andrea Loath.. er Ledsom today.
https://cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/brexiteer-andrea-leadsom-denies-tories-3619270
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.1 -
Future headteacher?Ave_it said:
I think SuperJo will be fine. She is the future! 😊bigjohnowls said:Tim Shipman
Datapraxis seat projections:
Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Putney, but 1% behind Lib Dems in Winchester
IDS only 2% up in Chingford and could lose to a squeeze
Swinson 5% up but SNP closing
Raab 6% up and pulling away0 -
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?FrancisUrquhart said:Gap during this campaign.....
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@FrancisUrquhart
May seem a strange request, but can we please go easy on the GIFs? I suffer from a condition related to epilepsy and two going off on the page at the same time are making me dizzy.0 -
That's an interestingly unusual and important one there. How many Tories are prepared to vote tactically for the Brexit party, rather than the other way around ? It might help to show how high a priority Brexit really is in the ex-industrial seats the Tories are newly confident in.HYUFD said:0 -
No problem. I shall resist the urge to post anymore.ydoethur said:@FrancisUrquhart
May seem a strange request, but can we please go easy on the GIFs? I suffer from a condition related to epilepsy and two going off on the page at the same time are making me dizzy.0 -
I live in Aberconwy. I do not expect labour to win this seatMissScarlett said:
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruptionTheScreamingEagles said:Asking for a friend.
What if you have red shoes and don't like Corbyn?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1203250070268907520
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us1 -
When did they change the election night music? For the worseAndy_JS said:
Isn't this a bit like the BBC's 1987 exit poll which said the result would be anything from the Tories short by 17 to a Con majority of 86? In other words, not telling us anything of value.TheScreamingEagles said:
At 11 mins 24 secs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVahD8xWoxo0 -
You have no choice but to calm yourself!FrancisUrquhart said:
No problem. I shall resist the urge to post anymore.ydoethur said:@FrancisUrquhart
May seem a strange request, but can we please go easy on the GIFs? I suffer from a condition related to epilepsy and two going off on the page at the same time are making me dizzy.
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Average of tonight's polls so far:
Con 43.5%
Lab 32.5%1 -
LOL....Time to get back to coding me thinks.RobD said:
You have no choice but to calm yourself!FrancisUrquhart said:
No problem. I shall resist the urge to post anymore.ydoethur said:@FrancisUrquhart
May seem a strange request, but can we please go easy on the GIFs? I suffer from a condition related to epilepsy and two going off on the page at the same time are making me dizzy.0 -
If Ed Balls was leading Labour we would be having an election in May as even if Brexit had gone the same way (which is a big if) May would never have gone for an early election in 2017.murali_s said:
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?FrancisUrquhart said:Gap during this campaign.....
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I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.0
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I'm looking at it.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's tweeting other seats as we speak.another_richard said:
So he choses to mention four south eastern Conservative seats, one Scottish LibDem seat and no Labour ?TheScreamingEagles said:IDS = In Deep Shit?
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1203429004797206528
Some of the media are perhaps resentful that the main battleground is all a bit too northern and working class for their preference.
His next tweet was about Grieve - another SE Conservative seat.
And then Hartlepool.
So still no Lab-Con constituency which I can see.0 -
Sanders doing well I think ?ydoethur said:
I am seeing truly epic levels of self delusion in this post. Sanders is falling apart in the States, Corbyn is reviled in the UK and Socialism is rejected by the overwhelming majority of people for the simple reason it doesn’t work - at a most basic level, it makes people much poorer. Why do you suppose every country that has tried Socialism except North Korea and Venezuela has now abandoned it?MissScarlett said:
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruptionTheScreamingEagles said:Asking for a friend.
What if you have red shoes and don't like Corbyn?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1203250070268907520
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
But then, the first two posts were not exactly impressive.
If Labour can’t put up better than this to explain their policies, no wonder they’re struggling.0 -
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
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YouGov MRP have it very close.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
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Thanks. One I can cope with, but two in such quick succession was a bit much!FrancisUrquhart said:
No problem. I shall resist the urge to post anymore.ydoethur said:@FrancisUrquhart
May seem a strange request, but can we please go easy on the GIFs? I suffer from a condition related to epilepsy and two going off on the page at the same time are making me dizzy.0 -
Well it looks as though the left-wing Sunday papers are praying for mass tactical voting and the remainder are expecting Boris to be visiting his 8th cousin on Friday so she offers him his job back. The problem for Gina Miller and her metropolitan Europhile chums is that the only people who are interested in the Observer and Independent are the metropolitan lefties who will have already decided to vote tactically or otherwise. Normal people are more interested in getting on with their Christmas shopping.
I look forward to reading the reactions on here on Thursday night if the SNP total proves to be sub 40:)0 -
murali_s said:
Indeed, Johnson is a philandering, mendacious, disengenious, racist little sh*t!Gallowgate said:
Boris Johnson has 55 years of baggage.funkhauser said:
Nope, Corbyn has 40 years of baggage.Gallowgate said:
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.humbugger said:
Corbyn, of course.Gallowgate said:
Based on what?GIN1138 said:
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:
And next you will be telling us the Equality & Human Rights Commission investigation into racism in the Labour party is fiction or a conspiracy or some such garbage.
The only other party that has had this investigation is the BNP ,Labour is in great company.1 -
More chance of Watford staying up.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
I quite fancy CON gain Eastbourne0 -
43/33/13 😀Andy_JS said:Average of tonight's polls so far:
Con 43.5%
Lab 32.5%
Or something very like it, anyway.0 -
Ed Balls was so well thought of he managed to lose what was believed to be a safe Labour seat.murali_s said:
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?FrancisUrquhart said:Gap during this campaign.....
To Andrea Jenkyns.0 -
I'm not shifting my covering bets on hung parliament just yet.
In fact, I might not do so until 10.01pm on Thursday night.1 -
That was all down to Mr Eagles' campaigning IIRC.another_richard said:
Ed Balls was so well thought of he managed to lose what was believed to be a safe Labour seat.murali_s said:
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?FrancisUrquhart said:Gap during this campaign.....
To Andrea Jenkyns.1 -
Are you telling me that the Guardian don't sell 10,000s of copies in the likes of Wakefield?NorthCadboll said:Well it looks as though the left-wing Sunday papers are praying for mass tactical voting and the remainder are expecting Boris to be visiting his 8th cousin on Friday so she offers him his job back. The problem for Gina Miller and her metropolitan Europhile chums is that the only people who are interested in the Observer and Independent are the metropolitan lefties who will have already decided to vote tactically or otherwise. Normal people are more interested in getting on with their Christmas shopping.
I look forward to reading the reactions on here on Thursday night if the SNP total proves to be sub 40:)
Between school and uni I had a gap working and I ended up living in a very rough area. The local corner shop only ever had 1 copy of the Sunday Times...I know, because I was the only one who bought it.0 -
Slightly better for the Tories than previously. Shows Labour doesn't have any momentum.Black_Rook said:
43/33/13 😀Andy_JS said:Average of tonight's polls so far:
Con 43.5%
Lab 32.5%
Or something very like it, anyway.0 -
Winchester is a different seat to both of those, far more rural and suburban areas with strong Tory support.Andy_JS said:
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
Plus Steve Brine is a moderate Tory with lots of support.0 -
I’d be tempted to vote for him myself.murali_s said:
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?FrancisUrquhart said:Gap during this campaign.....
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If you can't see that the Tory leader is a racist little sh*t, then you really are a dim-witted halfwit!funkhauser said:murali_s said:
Indeed, Johnson is a philandering, mendacious, disengenious, racist little sh*t!Gallowgate said:
Boris Johnson has 55 years of baggage.funkhauser said:
Nope, Corbyn has 40 years of baggage.Gallowgate said:
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.humbugger said:
Corbyn, of course.Gallowgate said:
Based on what?GIN1138 said:
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:
And next you will be telling us the Equality & Human Rights Commission investigation into racism in the Labour party is fiction or a conspiracy or some such garbage.
The only other party that has had this investigation is the BNP ,Labour is in great company.
Be gone pest!0 -
Any sign of a big new Labour bribe?0
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Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.Andy_JS said:
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
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On the other hand Winchester has a much stronger recent history of being LD compared to the other two. Some might say: so what? Personally I think that sort of history does count for quite a lot.Casino_Royale said:
Winchester is a different seat to both of those, far more rural and suburban areas with strong Tory support.Andy_JS said:
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
Plus Steve Brine is a moderate Tory with lots of support.0 -
Ed Balls is the best option they've got.DavidL said:
I’d be tempted to vote for him myself.murali_s said:
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?FrancisUrquhart said:Gap during this campaign.....
Assuming they're still interested in winning elections.0 -
I seem to remember something about Labour infighting having a part to play in that. Weren’t resources diverted to other, safer seats, or is my memory playing tricks?another_richard said:
Ed Balls was so well thought of he managed to lose what was believed to be a safe Labour seat.murali_s said:
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?FrancisUrquhart said:Gap during this campaign.....
To Andrea Jenkyns.0 -
Your posts always add so much to this site.murali_s said:
If you can't see that the Tory leader is a racist little sh*t, then you really are a dim-witted halfwit!funkhauser said:murali_s said:
Indeed, Johnson is a philandering, mendacious, disengenious, racist little sh*t!Gallowgate said:
Boris Johnson has 55 years of baggage.funkhauser said:
Nope, Corbyn has 40 years of baggage.Gallowgate said:
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.humbugger said:
Corbyn, of course.Gallowgate said:
Based on what?GIN1138 said:
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:
And next you will be telling us the Equality & Human Rights Commission investigation into racism in the Labour party is fiction or a conspiracy or some such garbage.
The only other party that has had this investigation is the BNP ,Labour is in great company.
Be gone pest!2 -
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
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Ed Balls, like Portillo, is a politician whose absence is making the heart grow fonder. We’re forgetting all the reasons we disliked him and seeing him as the cuddly guy on prime time TV who can sometimes talk human and takes an interest in sensible subjects like cooking (or railways, in Portillo’s case).another_richard said:
Ed Balls was so well thought of he managed to lose what was believed to be a safe Labour seat.murali_s said:
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?FrancisUrquhart said:Gap during this campaign.....
To Andrea Jenkyns.
Of course, it helps enormously that his successors are so manifestly not up to it, as it did with Hague and Duncan Smith. The latter is weirder because Portillo did stand against him and still lost.
And on that rather sour note, good night.1 -
Amazingly Ed Balls is the current most popular Labour politician according to YouGov:
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/labour-politicians/all0 -
And of course it has been predicted that the Tory voters will be cut off due to the snowdrifts paralysing rural areas?alb1on said:
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
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That is uncalled for no matter how much you disagree with another postermurali_s said:
If you can't see that the Tory leader is a racist little sh*t, then you really are a dim-witted halfwit!funkhauser said:murali_s said:
Indeed, Johnson is a philandering, mendacious, disengenious, racist little sh*t!Gallowgate said:
Boris Johnson has 55 years of baggage.funkhauser said:
Nope, Corbyn has 40 years of baggage.Gallowgate said:
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.humbugger said:
Corbyn, of course.Gallowgate said:
Based on what?GIN1138 said:
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:
And next you will be telling us the Equality & Human Rights Commission investigation into racism in the Labour party is fiction or a conspiracy or some such garbage.
The only other party that has had this investigation is the BNP ,Labour is in great company.
Be gone pest!
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I assume you have never lived in Winchester (or probably even visited it)?Ave_it said:
More chance of Watford staying up.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
I quite fancy CON gain Eastbourne1 -
Casino_Royale said:
Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.Andy_JS said:
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
From WP: Other counties more distant from London—such as Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Hampshire and Oxfordshire—are also sometimes regarded as home counties due to their proximity to London and their connection to the London regional economy.0 -
Great work by Joshua there, perfect gameplan0
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In the absence of BMG, here's the latest tracker graph - https://imgur.com/81q0sOJ0
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Nobody in Aberconwy on the Tory side in 2017 thought the majority would be cut from 4k to 500. This I'm told by local canvassing results is going labour. Tory candidate has zero name I'd.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I live in Aberconwy. I do not expect labour to win this seatMissScarlett said:
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruptionTheScreamingEagles said:Asking for a friend.
What if you have red shoes and don't like Corbyn?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1203250070268907520
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us0 -
Yes , that will finish off the social care sector aswell as the hospitality industry but a small price to pay for the Tories .dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203431337769783302/photo/1
Predictable dog whistle.1 -
Boring as hell fight though.Pulpstar said:Great work by Joshua there, perfect gameplan
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I only used Home Counties because I was going to say South East Region but the idiots moved Herts into the Eastern Region! It used to be in the South East.Casino_Royale said:
Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.Andy_JS said:
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
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Banging Yougov. Better than the boxing anyway0
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St Albans makes a similar claim, although quite a few have closed in the past few years. The Campaign for Real Ale was founded there.Sandpit said:
It used to be said (in 1996 was I was an undergrad in Aber) that it had the highest density of licensed premises of any town in the UK. Something like 55 within halfFysics_Teacher said:
No, though I visited a relative there once. She was doing her PhD. I was a bit too young for the pub though.ydoethur said:
You’ve never lived in Aberystwyth!Fysics_Teacher said:
There is no such thing as too many pubs.ydoethur said:
They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.Nobidexx said:
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.Black_Rook said:
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.Bufton_Tufton said:The Tories seem to be getting rather jumpy in St. Ives. Sajid Javid visited on Thursday and now Andrea Loath.. er Ledsom today.
https://cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/brexiteer-andrea-leadsom-denies-tories-3619270
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
a square mile. I think I visited all of them!1 -
Almost at the point where I am considering a stray fiver on them.StuartDickson said:SLab lengthening in East Lothian (SLab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 4/6
SCon 16/5
SLab 16/50 -
He's throwing a temper tantrum, the poor little darling.Casino_Royale said:
Your posts always add so much to this site.murali_s said:
If you can't see that the Tory leader is a racist little sh*t, then you really are a dim-witted halfwit!funkhauser said:murali_s said:
Indeed, Johnson is a philandering, mendacious, disengenious, racist little sh*t!Gallowgate said:
Boris Johnson has 55 years of baggage.funkhauser said:
Nope, Corbyn has 40 years of baggage.Gallowgate said:
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.humbugger said:
Corbyn, of course.Gallowgate said:
Based on what?GIN1138 said:
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.TheScreamingEagles said:
And next you will be telling us the Equality & Human Rights Commission investigation into racism in the Labour party is fiction or a conspiracy or some such garbage.
The only other party that has had this investigation is the BNP ,Labour is in great company.
Be gone pest!1 -
Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?0 -
[[citation needed]]IanB2 said:Casino_Royale said:
Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.Andy_JS said:
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
From WP: Other counties more distant from London—such as Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Hampshire and Oxfordshire—are also sometimes regarded as home counties due to their proximity to London and their connection to the London regional economy.0 -
Hampshire is not in the core Home Counties ie Essex, Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Sussex and Kent and Hertfordshire.Andy_JS said:
I only used Home Counties because I was going to say South East Region but the idiots moved Herts into the Eastern Region! It used to be in the South East.Casino_Royale said:
Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.Andy_JS said:
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
However it is sometimes included along with Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire as it has a lot of commuters
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_counties1 -
Social care sector is NOT populated by unskilled workers. Are you saying the carers looking after the infirm elderly, the sufferers of dementia, those at the end of their life are cared for by the "unskilled"?nico67 said:
Yes , that will finish off the social care sector aswell as the hospitality industry but a small price to pay for the Tories .dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203431337769783302/photo/1
Predictable dog whistle.
Try doing that job and seeing how unskilled it is.1 -
No, it was hubris/anger.Fysics_Teacher said:
I seem to remember something about Labour infighting having a part to play in that. Weren’t resources diverted to other, safer seats, or is my memory playing tricks?another_richard said:
Ed Balls was so well thought of he managed to lose what was believed to be a safe Labour seat.murali_s said:
If Ed Balls was leading Labour, possible Labour landslide incoming?FrancisUrquhart said:Gap during this campaign.....
To Andrea Jenkyns.
There were more Labour activists in Sheffield Hallam than in Morley and Outwood, they really wanted to defeat Nick Clegg and in Morley & Outwood thought everyone who voted Labour in 2010 and circa most of the 2010 Lib Dem would vote Labour in 2015.0 -
I was canvassed by a young momentum supporter and when I said no way he just seemed so resigned to it and even a bit downMissScarlett said:
Nobody in Aberconwy on the Tory side in 2017 thought the majority would be cut from 4k to 500. This I'm told by local canvassing results is going labour. Tory candidate has zero name I'd.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I live in Aberconwy. I do not expect labour to win this seatMissScarlett said:
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruptionTheScreamingEagles said:Asking for a friend.
What if you have red shoes and don't like Corbyn?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1203250070268907520
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
I am sure momentums propaganda is ramping up it's hope but it will not happen0 -
£2trillion?Byronic said:Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?0 -
Joshua Fury looks like an awful matchup on tonight's showing. Though Joshua can't outreach Fury who is like a bloody Orangutan so he might mix it up moreFrancisUrquhart said:
Boring as hell fight though.Pulpstar said:Great work by Joshua there, perfect gameplan
0 -
Surely the question is how the government defines it. If it defines it based on income (as it does for some work visa right now I believe) then care workers who are skilled but poorly paid could well be excluded.ozymandias said:
Social care sector is NOT populated by unskilled workers. Are you saying the carers looking after the infirm elderly, the sufferers of dementia, those at the end of their life are cared for by the "unskilled"?nico67 said:
Yes , that will finish off the social care sector aswell as the hospitality industry but a small price to pay for the Tories .dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203431337769783302/photo/1
Predictable dog whistle.
Try doing that job and seeing ow unskilled it is.0 -
My guess would have been 2.7tn. But your wider point - Corbyn and the far left don't care about trifles like economics. They truly don't. Their job is to spread poverty, not wealth.Byronic said:Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?2 -
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.alb1on said:
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
0 -
STimes sticking the boot in one last time, just to be sure:
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/12034369056370032640 -
No need for sarcasm. I lived in Winchester in the 90s. The Tory strongholds are some of the villages, especially on the fringes of the Meon Valley constituency. Very spread out. The strongest LD areas include the easily worked townhouses in and around the town centre. Just means you need more people to get the Conservative vote out. And they will not get any help from the Meon Valley neighbours. Flick Drummond (the Meon Valley PPC) used to be the headmistress of the Winchester Conservatives and still resents not getting the nomination many years ago.IanB2 said:
And of course it has been predicted that the Tory voters will be cut off due to the snowdrifts paralysing rural areas?alb1on said:
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
0 -
Well all of us now.Byronic said:Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?2 -
Did anybody think on the weekend of the general election in 2017 that labour would win Canterbury? Or get within 3k votes in seats in Cornwall? I remember Tories confidently saying that they would hold battersea, southgate and even gain tooting.
Populism is a funny business. Majority of people don't read newspapers and voters only want to talk to people that reinforce their views not question them.0 -
I knew it was around about 2.2trn GBP but only because I regularly review it as well as our national budgets and numbers.Byronic said:Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?0 -
At the start of the election I did myself a spreadsheet to see what was possible, I took the Leave voting Labour seats, took of the 25 with the smallest majority's as likely Tory targets, and the 25 that where only slightly lave, i.e. all had voted leave by at least 55%WhisperingOracle said:
That's an interestingly unusual and important one there. How many Tories are prepared to vote tactically for the Brexit party, rather than the other way around ? It might help to show how high a priority Brexit really is in the ex-industrial seats the Tories are newly confident in.HYUFD said:
If Brexit Party took 1/3 of Lab votes, 90% of UKIP, and 70% of Tory, But Lab picked up all 100% of Lib Dem and Green: then Brexit Party would have 70 of those seats!
0 -
Mark Oaten once said that he always used to get about 70% of votes from the city itself and the Tories 70% in the surrounding area. Sounds like a slight exaggeration to me but may have been basically true.Casino_Royale said:
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.alb1on said:
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
0 -
-
Exactly my point. The city is LD and much more easily got out.Casino_Royale said:
People tend to focus on Winchester city rather than its equally large hinterland.alb1on said:
If we assume an equal number of available votes in Winchester for both LDs and Conservatives (which seems to be the poll suggestion) the LDs will win. This is for some simple reasons. The LDs have a much better ground operation in the constituency and their core support is in the city itself, where it is easier to work the vote. Add in that the LDs can pull in support from the likes of Southampton if they want (the Conservatives need to focus Southampton support in Itchen) and it means the Conservatives need to be perhaps 5% up in underlying support to win the seat. So that swing is the challenge for them in the next few days.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
0 -
Does anyone know if Labour will still allow people to pay to vote in their forthcoming leadership election? Does that still need to be decided?
I would pay to vote for Jess Phillips.0 -
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That's ok. It does have a fair few commuters.Andy_JS said:
I only used Home Counties because I was going to say South East Region but the idiots moved Herts into the Eastern Region! It used to be in the South East.Casino_Royale said:
Being pedantic as well but Hampshire isn't a home county.Andy_JS said:
I wouldn't be. The 3 best LD prospects in the Home Counties are Winchester, St Albans and Guildford.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
Not as many as Guildford though and isn't dominated by London feeling in quite the same way.0 -
Just a little nudge to all those Southern soft remainers undecided types....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:STimes sticking the boot in one last time, just to be sure:
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/12034369056370032641 -
No need to google when its on the ONS:Byronic said:Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/pn2
Just over two trillion quid would be a better description than just under three trillion bucks.0 -
Yes, Yougov MRP had Labour winning Canterbury in 2017MissScarlett said:Did anybody think on the weekend of the general election in 2017 that labour would win Canterbury? Or get within 3k votes in seats in Cornwall? I remember Tories confidently saying that they would hold battersea, southgate and even gain tooting.
Populism is a funny business. Majority of people don't read newspapers and voters only want to talk to people that reinforce their views not question them.0 -
So what are your notable constituency predictions for Thursday?MissScarlett said:Did anybody think on the weekend of the general election in 2017 that labour would win Canterbury? Or get within 3k votes in seats in Cornwall? I remember Tories confidently saying that they would hold battersea, southgate and even gain tooting.
Populism is a funny business. Majority of people don't read newspapers and voters only want to talk to people that reinforce their views not question them.0 -
Con can ave it, Eastbourne is a dumpAve_it said:
More chance of Watford staying up.Casino_Royale said:I'd be surprised if the Tories lost Winchester.
I quite fancy CON gain Eastbourne0 -
About £2.2 trillion, and that's off the top of my head no cheating.Byronic said:Just had drinks with a Corbynite friend - smart, sensitive, an artist, very well educated
We got into a lively argument about economics and Corbyn's manifesto, and his spending plans, and I challenged her to guess the size of the British economy. Our total GDP. As without that fact to hand, it would be impossible to say whether Corbynomics works or not.
She didn't have a clue. Not the beginnings of a clue. It could have been $10bn, $500bn, $7 trillion. She would't even hazard a guess.
But here's a thing - my guess was out by several hundred billion, too. Tho at least I was in the right ballpark - its actually just under $3trn,
How many PB-ers would guess this figure right, without Googling?0
