Must be the 2nd Snowball of the evening kicking in.
I’m fairly certain a Snowball counts as at least one of your five a day if the recipe is what I think it is. Cheers!
Has to have at least 3 cocktail Cherries per glass. Advocaat Lime Cordial and R Whites. Best Advocaat is Cooymans none of that Warnincks dhite the Dutch wouldnt let their pawsers drink that
Pimms is best for 5 a day imo (extra Cucumber)
Hope you don’t mind but I’ve copied that post so I can give your recipe a try.
Have you put any money on considering no overall majority is at 3.85ish on Betfair?
Slightly better odds available for laying the Tory majority
1.38-1.39 now, I think personally I'm done with it (about a grand and a half at an average of 1.397), and will keep what little liquidity I have left for Thursday night.
Perhaps the Tory candidate in Hastings and Rye can introduce you to them.
Do you regret joining the Conservative party?
No.
I regret what the Party has become but I'm hoping it isn't terminal.
I don't think the Conservatives are that different. A bit more left wing, economically. A bit more right wing, socially. Moving with the times, as the party has done for 200 years.
Which is why they've been in power for most of the last 200 years.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Grammarly are a worldwide plague. Their advertising budget must be vast.
I'm not kidding when I say I see more of their advertising than anything else, they must either spend a fortune, or I fit the demographic that they target to a tee.
Deltapoll VI now out, LD percentage back down relative to last time but otherwise little change. Con Lab gap of 11%, broadly consistent with mean for last fortnight.
As suspected, those Best for Britain numbers look like an outlier.
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
There is no such thing as too many pubs.
You’ve never lived in Aberystwyth!
No, though I visited a relative there once. She was doing her PhD. I was a bit too young for the pub though.
Very little overall movement on Betfair's Conservative Majority market, currently available to buy at 1.39 = 1.37 net of their 5% commission. Based on an 8% - 10% lead in the polls, which appear stable and with only 5 days to go until polling day, this looks like surprisingly generous potential return. But for some reason, I like others are hesitating from grabbing some of this apparent "bargain".
It's hard to see where Labour can get many more votes from now without a LD vote collapse. I don't see that happening ecause of Corbyn and the anti-semitism issue.
The don't knows and others are still a faiir consideration.
I don't think the LD's will fall much below 11 or 12 or so, and tactical voting might deliver them more than that suggests.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Grammarly are a worldwide plague. Their advertising budget must be vast.
I'm not kidding when I say I see more of their advertising than anything else, they must either spend a fortune, or I fit the demographic that they target to a tee.
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.
I’d say if that is realistically the Lib Dems 5th or 6th biggest target seat and they are 1% ahead then the Tories won’t be too discouraged.
I am not sure how it is seen as 5th or 6th. I would have all the following ahead of it as targets; Richmond Park, Cheltenham, St Albans, NE Fife, Winchester, Lewes, South Cambridgeshire, St Ives, Wells and probably Cities of L&W. So maybe 11th or 12th alongside Wimbledon.
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
There is no such thing as too many pubs.
You’ve never lived in Aberystwyth!
No, though I visited a relative there once. She was doing her PhD. I was a bit too young for the pub though.
It used to be said (in 1996 was I was an undergrad in Aber) that it had the highest density of licensed premises of any town in the UK. Something like 55 within half a square mile. I think I visited all of them!
Guildford is a good example of why the Conservatives face a mountain unless their lead really does pan out into a national vote share in double figures (which I think is unlikely on the day).
If you're in trouble holding Remain parts of England, doing relatively poorly in London, Scotland and Wales you need a seismic shift in the Labour heartlands of a kind not showing up in constituency polling.
Give up your ramping - literally none of my friends aree buying it.
You're in a vitriolic mood. Rather nasty which really reflects on you as a person. This isn't ramping. It's an opinion poll. Dismiss it to your heart's content, and the tories may well indeed go on to win a majority of some sort, but that doesn't alter the fact that you are showing yourself to be a less than pleasant human being. Sadly.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Grammarly are a worldwide plague. Their advertising budget must be vast.
I'm not kidding when I say I see more of their advertising than anything else, they must either spend a fortune, or I fit the demographic that they target to a tee.
How is your spelling?
I thought it was quite good, but apparently I'm wrong about that.
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
There is no such thing as too many pubs.
You’ve never lived in Aberystwyth!
No, though I visited a relative there once. She was doing her PhD. I was a bit too young for the pub though.
It used to be said (in 1996 was I was an undergrad in Aber) that it had the highest density of licensed premises of any town in the UK. Something like 55 within half a square mile.
The centres of Oxford and Cambridge might beat that, but only if you count the college bars.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Grammarly are a worldwide plague. Their advertising budget must be vast.
I'm not kidding when I say I see more of their advertising than anything else, they must either spend a fortune, or I fit the demographic that they target to a tee.
How is your spelling?
Tories spending 3+ million this week if they spend what they raised last week lib dems and labour 1/2 million each, always good to have an even playing field
These modelled projections keep coming in at around 40, which miay be what happens if there's less tactical voting and more predictability. If things are less predictable and uniform, then maybe closer to the hung parliament or smaller majority end of the range.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Grammarly are a worldwide plague. Their advertising budget must be vast.
I'm not kidding when I say I see more of their advertising than anything else, they must either spend a fortune, or I fit the demographic that they target to a tee.
How is your spelling?
Tories spending 3+ million this week if they spend what they raised last week lib dems and labour 1/2 million each, always good to have an even playing field
I don't think it'll be by much. If the national lead is about 9% (like Yougov's latest regular poll), they should get around 30 seats or so. I could even see it being around 345-350, if most of the labour increase is in London and other safe seats (which is the most likely imo).
Not too late for the Corbynista swing! Or for Watford to stay up!
Possibly not the latter.
Has a single seat yet showed a swing from the Tories to Labour since 2017 in any of the seat polls?
Do you think IDS could be a victim to the north London labour surge?
He won by 5% in 2017 and I think he will hold it by about the same margin.
Raab is probably more at risk than IDS now though both will be close
I agree IDS will just be ok. Raab will do better. There are lots of squueky LDs in Epsom but the quiet successful voters who can't afford Corbyn will get out for Raab. Maj 10,000.
But I did forecast Con Maj 20,000 in Kingston and Surbiton last time. That went well!
Judging by my canvassing in Chingford and Woodford Green if IDS' main opponent was a LD not a Corbyn Labour candidate I think he might well have lost in this marginal Remain seat, it will be fear of Corbyn amongst Tory and LD Remainers that will enable him to scrape home.
Raab's main opponent is a LD so he does not have that luxury but as you say indirect fear of Corbyn may keep Esher and Walton Tory
North Cornwall, on the other hand, has had no 'visitations' from either senior CONs or LDs - a safe CON hold unfortunately. The constituency has changed a lot since the days of John Pardoe and Paul Tyler with many incomers.
I believe that St Ives is the tightest Tory held marginal in the South West. They'll certainly want to be holding it, both for its own sake and to stop the yellow peril from re-establishing a toehold West of Bath.
The MRP gives the Cons a 6% lead based on the central estimates, about the same as in the.much-discussed Guildford but without the complication of an ex-Tory independent running and with the other parties predicted to be down to bedrock. It's not a gimme, but on the balance of probability one would expect a Con hold.
The tories will also be helped in St Ives by the Greens standing, unlike last time. They're pretty strong locally (they got 7% in 2015). I'd expect a tory hold by about 5%.
I think Cheltenham will be even tighter. On paper it should be an easy libdem gain given the 3% or so majority, heavily remain vote and the lack of a Green candidate, but the tory vote there seems fairly resilient and the libdems didn't surge as much in the EU election as they did in other remain seats like St Albans (they only got 36%). I could see it going both ways, though I think the libdems will probably win it narrowly.
They’re always tight in Cheltenham. Too many pubs.
There is no such thing as too many pubs.
You’ve never lived in Aberystwyth!
No, though I visited a relative there once. She was doing her PhD. I was a bit too young for the pub though.
It used to be said (in 1996 was I was an undergrad in Aber) that it had the highest density of licensed premises of any town in the UK. Something like 55 within half a square mile.
The centres of Oxford and Cambridge might beat that, but only if you count the college bars.
Isn't this a bit like the BBC's 1987 exit poll which said the result would be anything from the Tories short by 17 to a Con majority of 86? In other words, not telling us anything of value.
Must be the 2nd Snowball of the evening kicking in.
I’m fairly certain a Snowball counts as at least one of your five a day if the recipe is what I think it is. Cheers!
Has to have at least 3 cocktail Cherries per glass. Advocaat Lime Cordial and R Whites. Best Advocaat is Cooymans none of that Warnincks dhite the Dutch wouldnt let their pawsers drink that
Pimms is best for 5 a day imo (extra Cucumber)
Hope you don’t mind but I’ve copied that post so I can give your recipe a try.
I am on my last bottle of Cooymans. Not sold in UK in 2018 if anyone sees any let me know. I will pay a premium.
Emily Owen cut majority from 4k to 500. Tory Guto Bebb standing down. New Tory candidate (not very active no twitter very little on Facebook). Emily is the new breed of politicians using social media and day to day campaigning and now tory doesn't have name recognition.
Result 2017 Conservative 14337 (+3.1%) Labour (Emily Owen) 13702 (+14.4%) Plaid 3170 Lib dem 941
Get on it.
Welcome to PB.com with your very first post. Caution is required I would suggest as regards your suggestion of backing Labour's Emily Owen to win Aberconwy. Electoral Calculus reckon the Tories have a 71% chance of winning this seat with Labour languishing on 27%. Based on those percentages, I'd want much better odds than the 5/2 you quote, but good luck anyway.
Thank you. The % are based on the YouGov MRP but I prefer on the ground knowledge. Canvass returns. Labour are doing better ward by ward. No Tory Power of incumbency and we have a total outsider bought in a month before a general election with no name recognition against a sitting councillor who is active.
To think Tories are going to hold all their seats is ridiculous. They will lose seats in England Wales and Scotland because we live in a world where middle class people are more leftwing as thry want the poorest to not be homeless or hungry etc and the working class are more conservative because they blame immigration.
Populism is always dangerous but this election is so depressing. In america, Andrew Yang says we are in the middle of the 4th industrial revolution and vast majority of jobs will be done by automation and that will lead to massive unemployment across retail, transportation and business services. Bernie sanders blames the largest companies in the world for destroying lives and communities by creating outrageous monopolies and avoiding tax. Warren blames the banks consistent attempt to put every citizen in debt with loans, mortgages or credit. Klobuchar talks about how the digital economy and climate change is destroying rural communities and how kids raised in rural areas feel forced to move to the big city to build a life. Klobuchar gets laws passed and is the number one enemy with the drug companies as she's passed over 100 bills lowering drug prices.
But in the UK we have no adult debate because the media don't want a debate. We have to talk stupid, small-minded gutter politics.
It's been a quite tame election, nothing really much had happened, I suspect most people made their minds up long before it started
The main events have been the Brexit Party stand down and a leakage of (presumably) Remain voters from the LDs back to Labour, possibly concentrated in London. Unless there is a significant shift in the polls between now and Wednesday, the available evidence suggests that the campaign effectively ended about a fortnight ago.
Isn't this a bit like the BBC's 1987 exit poll which said the result would be anything from the Tories short by 17 to a Con majority of 86? In other words, not telling us anything of value.
Saying the result could be anything from a hung parliament to a Tory landslide isn't telling us anything we didn't know 6 weeks ago, is it? It's a statement of the bleeding obvious. We look to polls and surveys to actually tell us something we don't already know.
Well last time the undecideds broke for Lanour in the last 3 days or so, so if that happens again I would assume that would be why people claim a HP is possible
It's been a quite tame election, nothing really much had happened, I suspect most people made their minds up long before it started
The main events have been the Brexit Party stand down and a leakage of (presumably) Remain voters from the LDs back to Labour, possibly concentrated in London. Unless there is a significant shift in the polls between now and Wednesday, the available evidence suggests that the campaign effectively ended about a fortnight ago.
I disagree, I think the main event has been the failure of the LDs to make the progress that most people, including me, were expecting them to make.
I noticed this being posted on Guido Falkes, and thought I would look for it, sinse it was uploaded on YouTube and this morning at about 0900, it has bee viewed 2.2 million times, which seems like a big number, but when I looked on Facebook its only been viewed 70,000 time. now that's a big disparity, why?
If its not being shared on Facebook, how are the conservatives getting people to watch it?
All I can think of is that they are paying to have it as one of the annoying adverts at the start of normal YouTube videos?
Or does anybody know how else they could of get this popular so quickly, email links?
How much do adverts like this cost? have they been used before and are they effective?
Grammarly are a worldwide plague. Their advertising budget must be vast.
I'm not kidding when I say I see more of their advertising than anything else, they must either spend a fortune, or I fit the demographic that they target to a tee.
How is your spelling?
Tories spending 3+ million this week if they spend what they raised last week lib dems and labour 1/2 million each, always good to have an even playing field
What are the national spending limits?
For a GE its normally about £18.8 Million, however this year is a bit difent because of the European Parliament Elections and the calculation is:
Normal GE Limit + EP Limit - Spending at EP - Spending at all Buy-Elections in the last year.
So what does that add up to???? hard to say exactly as the Electoral commition was not planning on release the spending figures for the big party's in the EP election until mid Dec!!!
As to the previous comment, the Labour party has a turnover of £50 million and employs 700 People, if they cant keep some of that back to, I donk know, FUND A GE!!! then I have little sympathy for them.
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruption
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
Well last time the undecideds broke for Lanour in the last 3 days or so, so if that happens again I would assume that would be why people claim a HP is possible
They didn't, the last 3 days saw a minor recovery to the government if anything
Tim Shipman Datapraxis seat projections: Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Putney, but 1% behind Lib Dems in Winchester IDS only 2% up in Chingford and could lose to a squeeze Swinson 5% up but SNP closing Raab 6% up and pulling away
Well last time the undecideds broke for Lanour in the last 3 days or so, so if that happens again I would assume that would be why people claim a HP is possible
They didn't, the last 3 days saw a minor recovery to the government if anything
"Undecideds" will typically break for the governing party on the day IMO.
Based on what?
Corbyn, of course.
Yes, but the alternative is Boris Johnson. Someone equally as detestable.
He is a known equally detestable factor. Corbyn is an unknown one, with the important exception he had all of Johnson’s facts but much less experience and intelligence, and with a weaker team around him.
In this case, therefore, faced with a choice of two evils, the probabilities of how undecideds will break would appear to be (1) abstention (2) vote for the devil you know (3) vote for the devil you don’t.
Corbyn isn’t in the box seat to take advantage of indecision. Not to say it’s impossible, but it’s less likely than the alternatives.
He is due here in Aberconwy and North Wales tomorrow just as we have received a yellow weather warning with 70mph gales, stormy seas, and travel disruption
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
If corbyn is going to Aberconwy tomorrow definitely get on. Whatever you think of his politics, people do believe in socialism and ending poverty.Bernie is doing it in america and corbyn is doing it in UK. Neo-liberalism is dead.
I think if the Tories get between 310 and 320 seats it means another election next year. 310 seats would be enough to block a Corbyn-led government because the unionists still won't support him but they would block Johnson's deal.
Well last time the undecideds broke for Lanour in the last 3 days or so, so if that happens again I would assume that would be why people claim a HP is possible
They didn't, the last 3 days saw a minor recovery to the government if anything
Well you can prove anything with facts!
(c) Stewart Lee
You can't prove movement within a campaign by movements within polls.
Comments
1.38-1.39 now, I think personally I'm done with it (about a grand and a half at an average of 1.397), and will keep what little liquidity I have left for Thursday night.
As suspected, those Best for Britain numbers look like an outlier.
I don't think the LD's will fall much below 11 or 12 or so, and tactical voting might deliver them more than that suggests.
MRP will show a smaller majority.
@ShippersUnbound
·
2m
EXC: Datapraxis MRP model gives Tories a majority of 38
Con 344 (+27)
Lab 221 (-41)
LD 14 (+2)
SNP 47 (+12)
PC 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
This is based on a staggering 500,000 YouGov interviews but the model is from Datapraxis. Their last MRP, two weeks ago gave a majority of 48
LDs down from low 20s to 11% during same period
https://imgur.com/BVaGzet
Raab's main opponent is a LD so he does not have that luxury but as you say indirect fear of Corbyn may keep Esher and Walton Tory
Just waiting to see Sunday Times front page.
What if you have red shoes and don't like Corbyn?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1203250070268907520
If the same pattern occurs then MRP will show a majority of 58.
(That’s a joke for the benefit of the moderators).
It’s the hope that does it
At 11 mins 24 secs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVahD8xWoxo
*innocent face*
Although since they’re screwing the whole nation, it seems appropriate they should screw each other as well.
To think Tories are going to hold all their seats is ridiculous. They will lose seats in England Wales and Scotland because we live in a world where middle class people are more leftwing as thry want the poorest to not be homeless or hungry etc and the working class are more conservative because they blame immigration.
Populism is always dangerous but this election is so depressing. In america, Andrew Yang says we are in the middle of the 4th industrial revolution and vast majority of jobs will be done by automation and that will lead to massive unemployment across retail, transportation and business services.
Bernie sanders blames the largest companies in the world for destroying lives and communities by creating outrageous monopolies and avoiding tax. Warren blames the banks consistent attempt to put every citizen in debt with loans, mortgages or credit. Klobuchar talks about how the digital economy and climate change is destroying rural communities and how kids raised in rural areas feel forced to move to the big city to build a life. Klobuchar gets laws passed and is the number one enemy with the drug companies as she's passed over 100 bills lowering drug prices.
But in the UK we have no adult debate because the media don't want a debate. We have to talk stupid, small-minded gutter politics.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203427102801956864
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1203429004797206528
SNP 4/6
SCon 16/5
SLab 16/5
Normal GE Limit + EP Limit - Spending at EP - Spending at all Buy-Elections in the last year.
So what does that add up to???? hard to say exactly as the Electoral commition was not planning on release the spending figures for the big party's in the EP election until mid Dec!!!
As to the previous comment, the Labour party has a turnover of £50 million and employs 700 People, if they cant keep some of that back to, I donk know, FUND A GE!!! then I have little sympathy for them.
If walks along Llandudno Promenade wearing red it may help the emergency services to find him as he takes off towards Snowdon. !!!!
But joking apart the winds are already hitting us
Datapraxis seat projections:
Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Putney, but 1% behind Lib Dems in Winchester
IDS only 2% up in Chingford and could lose to a squeeze
Swinson 5% up but SNP closing
Raab 6% up and pulling away
(c) Stewart Lee
I haven't noticed any links to the detail.
To be fair that’s what Miller said right?
In this case, therefore, faced with a choice of two evils, the probabilities of how undecideds will break would appear to be (1) abstention (2) vote for the devil you know (3) vote for the devil you don’t.
Corbyn isn’t in the box seat to take advantage of indecision. Not to say it’s impossible, but it’s less likely than the alternatives.