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Opinium is unchanged 15 point lead 46 to 311
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Thanks.melcf said:Reposted:::: feel free to disagree
Lincoln , very close fight
Just my two pence worth of thoughts, wrt Lincon. Have lived and worked there, so know a little about it.
Pros and Cons, for Labour Karen Lee
Pros:
-Student vote - around 1500+
-Brexit Party to split Leave votes
-Possible tactical voting from Greens and even LD
Karen has been more hands on and visible in Lincon, with a more down to earth nature. Being a nurse also helps, given the way the public services are at the moment.
Not a hugely leave area 55:45 unlike neighbouring Boston, which I think was like 70:30
Cons:
-Her biggest threat comes from being strongly remain in a 55-45 leave Constituency. A lot of people feel let down, even calling her a traitor. How much of this would translate into votes, time will tell
- As usual JC, but he was there in 2017, so people have got used to him, like a rash.
Conservative: Karl McCartney
Pros: strongly Brexit, will he polarise the 55% vote? Tyen he wins
Cons: quite a few , actually.
-Has been MP for 7 years, so has a lot to answer, when he promises new stuff, like park and ride.
-Lot of people have been hurt by 9 years of austerity, so again on the back foot
- Has this impression of being arrogant and little too full of himself. Read his facebook page, with mostly negative comments from the public, v unsual in the North
- Was involved in the expenses scandal as well as hiring his wife. People have not forgotten that
So, overall it's going to be a close fight, with Karen slightly ahead. However, if the Tories had selected a newbie, with not much baggage as Karl, then most likely the Tories had this in the bag.
My verdict, close win for Karen, less than 1000 votes . Please feel free to disagree.
The red wall in the North has been shaken. Whether it will crumble, will depend on many factors, including turnout and not only on Brexit alone
On the student vote; wasn't there some issue about turnout in Halls of Residence in 2017? If student turnout was very high in 2017 then that will be hard to maintain this time round, so it could be a 'con' not a 'pro'.0 -
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 46% (-)
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 13% (-)
GRN: 3% (+1)
BREX: 2% (-)
via @OpiniumResearch, 04 - 06 Dec
Chgs. w/ 29 Nov
More:
https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D0 -
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Opinium is mad lol.
I just do not believe it's 15 points - I am prepared to eat my hat0 -
Gold Standard confirmed.RobD said:0 -
Someone's got it very wrong again..
This could still be anything from a hung parliament to a 40 seat majority, I think.0 -
Even with a systematic bias, they are showing no change in the relative positions. Consistent with other pollsters in that regard.CorrectHorseBattery said:Opinium is mad lol.
I just do not believe it's 15 points - I am prepared to eat my hat0 -
Only gold? I was thinking double diamond standard.brokenwheel said:
Gold Standard confirmed.RobD said:1 -
Yes I suppose that is the most interesting thing, no change as of yet. But more polls to come, more straws to clench!RobD said:
Even with a systematic bias, they are showing no change in the relative positions. Consistent with other pollsters in that regard.CorrectHorseBattery said:Opinium is mad lol.
I just do not believe it's 15 points - I am prepared to eat my hat0 -
Any bet puts you in the elite 20% of this site I would reckon.StevenWhaley said:
All on Betfair for tiny stakes as I'm not a serious gambler... just for added interest on the night.CorrectHorseBattery said:Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
£2 at 9 on Conservatives to be in the 360-369 seats band.
£2 at 17 on the Lib Dems to be in the 30-39 seats band.
£2 lay at 2.2 on the Lib Dems being in the 10-19 seats band.
£6 at 5.8 on Labour to be in the 169 seats or below band.
£2.50 at 12 on Labour to be in the 170-179 seats band.
£2.50 at 11 on Labour to be in the 180-189 seats band.
another £4 at 21 on Labour to be in the 180-189 seats band.
£2 at 12.5 on Labour to be in the 190-199 seats band.0 -
15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!0
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Platinum executive gold standard for Tory voters. Comres may become the diamond crystal standard for Labourites.RobD said:
Only gold? I was thinking double diamond standard.brokenwheel said:
Gold Standard confirmed.RobD said:0 -
It's probably somewhere in between.WhisperingOracle said:Someone's got it very wrong again..
This could still be anything from a hung parliament to a 40 seat majority, I think.
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Ridiculous. We don't know if there are any better ones yet.CorrectHorseBattery said:15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
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It would be interesting to dig into why Opinium is different.0
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How does that explain the difference in Lab share?NickPalmer said:Just a technical note on the two ComRes's which seems to have been largely overlooked. the Telegraph one is taken with the actual candidates, which means that in half the seats respondents were not offered a Brexit Party option. If we think the BXP vote nationally is 4%, and that BXP voters without a candidate will generally go for Boris, then that explains the difference entirely. It's probably more complicated than that, but I'd guess that's most of the difference.
What this means specifically is that the 8-point lead reflects Tories being safer in their own seats, and the 6-point lead is a reflection of the position elsewhere. We shouldn't knock ourselves out obsessing over one poll when there are lots more coming, but maybe this is helpful in understanding what's happening.
ComRes (Miller) - Lab 36
ComRes (Telegraph) - Lab 330 -
I see a former Tory PM (JM) and Leader of the Tory Party has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see a former Tory Home Secretary (MH) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see a former Tory CotE (KC) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see a former Tory Chair (CP) has told the voters not to vote Tory
I see Tommy Robinson a former Leader of Britain First has told people to vote FOR the Tory Party
Boris claims to be a one nation Tory but he has taken the Whip from most of those. He is a 1% Tory not 1 nation.
PBers who can hold there heads high TSE, Richard Nbavi and David Herdson
Notable "one nationers" who should hang their heads in shame.
Well i dont need to name them but.......0 -
LOL!RobD said:
Ridiculous. We don't know if there are any better ones yet.CorrectHorseBattery said:15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
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Which one?WhisperingOracle said:
Platinum executive gold standard for Tory voters. Comres may become the diamond crystal standard for Labourites.RobD said:
Only gold? I was thinking double diamond standard.brokenwheel said:
Gold Standard confirmed.RobD said:
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Now you've got me worried.RobD said:
Could have two demises of the crown in quick succession.Chris said:
No excuse for Betfair, though, because it would still be in December 2019 ...Chris said:
Oh I see - the Representation of the People Act 1985.Chris said:
What's the evidence for saying that?Philip_Thompson said:
Death of a monarch postpones the election by a fortnight.Chris said:
But does anyone have the power to postpone the election legally?TudorRose said:
I suspect that the death of HMQ might be a cause.Chris said:
In that case in a sense it's fair not to settle, as it is clearly written into their rules.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I had November and December and will come out overall in profit. They haven't settled mine either.Chris said:
I have a couple of bets on the date of the election. I am quietly confident, though Betfair isn't willing to settle until the day after the election.CorrectHorseBattery said:Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
But I think it's a bit absurd for it to be in the rules. Is there any power on earth that can prevent the election taking place, once Parliament has been dissolved?0 -
City in big trouble. Fred hit with a bottle from the crowd0
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WTAFFFFF0
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Curtice-coppered?RobD said:
Only gold? I was thinking double diamond standard.brokenwheel said:
Gold Standard confirmed.RobD said:0 -
Remember, we are just one systematic polling error away from the biggest Tory landslide since '31.
*innocent face*1 -
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I do love a polling related collective nervous breakdown on PB.com.RobD said:Here's the numbers:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/12033863792265052210 -
The polling pattern tonight seems to follow the pattern of the last few days.
"Nothing has changed"0 -
Or a very Hung Parliament!RobD said:Remember, we are just one systematic polling error away from the biggest Tory landslide since '31.
*innocent face*0 -
It should mean at least one game behind closed doors - as should have happened with Arsenal last season - but it won't.Big_G_NorthWales said:City in big trouble. Fred hit with a bottle from the crowd
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Well thank goodness no herding, but I don't personally find it plausible. Either HP or massive majority, so clear!wooliedyed said:Opinium is unchanged 15 point lead 46 to 31
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15% tort lead feels right. 😂0
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That's one reason the majority of tories on here have been less bullish about chances of a landslide - despite positive noises from the north (england and wales) it disappointed last time. But even a disappointment has a high chance of some kind of majority, which is all they need.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Perhaps the pollsters read PB and like to have people cheering on both sides?
Perhaps the pollsters have all said fuck it and just plucked numbers out of thin air?
Fuck it, Labour super majority incoming0 -
Not sure why Wrexham and previously Grimsby targetted by 'individual polls'squareroot2 said:
That is an amazing poll in Wrexham..RobD said:
A second poll in Wrexham?ralphmalph said:
Just my fleeting impression of Wrexham, was there 10 days ago for a while.
Met three types
1) Frothing Brexiters, ' We voted leave' We want focking out types-- Advantage Bojo
2) Those upset with austerity and poor services, including a creaking local hospital Adv Labour
3) those just fed up with everything and unwilling to commit., I dont know
Candidates Labour A young Oxford educated lady, seemed to be on the ball
Conservative Sarah Atherthon, not very active, at least on social sites. Followed the glorius example of her boss and missed an important all candidates interview. Pissed off some traditional Welsh speakers , when asked why leaflets were not printed in Welsh , with a Catherine Tate sort of reply, Am I Botherwered
My impression Very close, and definitely not a fifteen point lead. All will depend on the turnout and those who have not commited. It takes a lot of effort to break age old traditions and habits.
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Opinium is the religion of the people.brokenwheel said:
Gold Standard confirmed.RobD said:3 -
Tomorrow's ELBOW should be... interesting (as always)RobD said:Here's the numbers:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203386379226505221
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>A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
Is this MRP?0 -
On 2 - isn't health a devolved issue? In which case definitely not advantage Labour.melcf said:
Not sure why Wrexham and previously Grimsby targetted by 'individual polls'squareroot2 said:
That is an amazing poll in Wrexham..RobD said:
A second poll in Wrexham?ralphmalph said:
Just my fleeting impression of Wrexham, was there 10 days ago for a while.
Met three types
1) Frothing Brexiters, ' We voted leave' We want focking out types-- Advantage Bojo
2) Those upset with austerity and poor services, including a creaking local hospital Adv Labour
3) those just fed up with everything and unwilling to commit., I dont know
Candidates Labour A young Oxford educated lady, seemed to be on the ball
Conservative Sarah Atherthon, not very active, at least on social sites. Followed the glorius example of her boss and missed an important all candidates interview. Pissed off some traditional Welsh speakers , when asked why leaflets were not printed in Welsh , with a Catherine Tate sort of reply, Am I Botherwered
My impression Very close, and definitely not a fifteen point lead. All will depend on the turnout and those who have not commited. It takes a lot of effort to break age old traditions and habits.0 -
Ian Blackford, Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.RobD said:Remember, we are just one systematic polling error away from the biggest Tory landslide since '31.
*innocent face*0 -
Thankfully this looks to be the last Opinium as I’m beginning to detest this polling company ! Lol1
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xkcd is ALWAYS relevant.CorrectHorseBattery said:xkcd is relevant here
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They won’t be bullish until the exit poll which shows a 60+ tory majority their job is to frighten every possible vote into voting Tory because we need more Tory robots.kle4 said:
That's one reason the majority of tories on here have been less bullish about chances of a landslide - despite positive noises from the north (england and wales) it disappointed last time. But even a disappointment has a high chance of some kind of majority, which is all they need.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Alright, who has a Times subscription?CorrectHorseBattery said:>A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
Is this MRP? 0 -
Well a 15% lead surely guarantees an average lead of 10% plus unless all other polls have narrowed.0
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That'll do, Pig......RobD said:Here's the numbers:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/12033863792265052210 -
The MRP poll predicts that without tactical voting Labour will win 224 seats, with the Scottish National Party on 45, the Lib Dems on 13 and the Green Party on one. @cazjwheeler0
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Not Nigel Dodds? Facing off against 630 MPs?LostPassword said:
Ian Blackford, Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.RobD said:Remember, we are just one systematic polling error away from the biggest Tory landslide since '31.
*innocent face*
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You say that, but there were more people more bullish last time, it isn't always standard for peopple to show any caution whatsoever.nichomar said:
They won’t be bullish until the exit poll which shows a 60+ tory majority their job is to frighten every possible vote into voting Tory because we need more Tory robots.kle4 said:
That's one reason the majority of tories on here have been less bullish about chances of a landslide - despite positive noises from the north (england and wales) it disappointed last time. But even a disappointment has a high chance of some kind of majority, which is all they need.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
That's the Times.0
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Times poll is very old - 25 Nov to 2 Dec.
It is not the YouGov MRP.
It was commissioned by Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum.0 -
We probably shouldn't copy/paste entire articles though. Trim the fluff and give us the juicy bits
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As mentioned I think that's almost exactly the maximum possible outcome for the Tories. Hung parliament is the other end of fair possibility.CorrectHorseBattery said:>A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
Is this MRP?0 -
Opinium always overestimates the ToriesMarqueeMark said:
That'll do, Pig......RobD said:Here's the numbers:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203386379226505221
Keep the champagne back on ice0 -
I live in Lincoln, I've been here for 19 years. I agree that it will be a very close contest. I wouldn't like to call it either way other than to say that Labour (win or lose) will out-perform their national performance here as the seat is trending their way.melcf said:Reposted:::: feel free to disagree
Lincoln , very close fight
Just my two pence worth of thoughts, wrt Lincon. Have lived and worked there, so know a little about it.
Pros and Cons, for Labour Karen Lee
Pros:
-Student vote - around 1500+
-Brexit Party to split Leave votes
-Possible tactical voting from Greens and even LD
Karen has been more hands on and visible in Lincon, with a more down to earth nature. Being a nurse also helps, given the way the public services are at the moment.
Not a hugely leave area 55:45 unlike neighbouring Boston, which I think was like 70:30
Cons:
-Her biggest threat comes from being strongly remain in a 55-45 leave Constituency. A lot of people feel let down, even calling her a traitor. How much of this would translate into votes, time will tell
- As usual JC, but he was there in 2017, so people have got used to him, like a rash.
Conservative: Karl McCartney
Pros: strongly Brexit, will he polarise the 55% vote? Tyen he wins
Cons: quite a few , actually.
-Has been MP for 7 years, so has a lot to answer, when he promises new stuff, like park and ride.
-Lot of people have been hurt by 9 years of austerity, so again on the back foot
- Has this impression of being arrogant and little too full of himself. Read his facebook page, with mostly negative comments from the public, v unsual in the North
- Was involved in the expenses scandal as well as hiring his wife. People have not forgotten that
So, overall it's going to be a close fight, with Karen slightly ahead. However, if the Tories had selected a newbie, with not much baggage as Karl, then most likely the Tories had this in the bag.
My verdict, close win for Karen, less than 1000 votes . Please feel free to disagree.
The red wall in the North has been shaken. Whether it will crumble, will depend on many factors, including turnout and not only on Brexit alone0 -
It is a MRP but not a YouGov MRP but a Focaldata MRP.CorrectHorseBattery said:>A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
Is this MRP?0 -
CHBCorrectHorseBattery said:That's the Times.
You probably wouldn’t know this, but OGH has been in trouble before over breaches of copyright when people copy and paste whole articles from paywalled newspapers, including The Times. Would advise you not to do it, however interesting or relevant the article. Just a snippet and a link would be better.0 -
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.0 -
By betting less than £25 in a year? LOLAlistair said:
Any bet puts you in the elite 20% of this site I would reckon.StevenWhaley said:
All on Betfair for tiny stakes as I'm not a serious gambler... just for added interest on the night.CorrectHorseBattery said:Would anyone like to discuss what bets they've got on? Happy to post mine to get the ball rolling?
£2 at 9 on Conservatives to be in the 360-369 seats band.
£2 at 17 on the Lib Dems to be in the 30-39 seats band.
£2 lay at 2.2 on the Lib Dems being in the 10-19 seats band.
£6 at 5.8 on Labour to be in the 169 seats or below band.
£2.50 at 12 on Labour to be in the 170-179 seats band.
£2.50 at 11 on Labour to be in the 180-189 seats band.
another £4 at 21 on Labour to be in the 180-189 seats band.
£2 at 12.5 on Labour to be in the 190-199 seats band.0 -
According to Reddit, variation last time.
>The variation in 2017 went from Labour up 2% in Qriously to Tories up 13% in BMG. ICM was at 12% for the Tories. Survation at 1% for the Tories. Was just as wild as this time really. Just we don't have Qriously polling this time to give ridiculous pro-Labour results.
I recall on polling day some showed a 10 point lead, were there any higher than that? So 15 is far out but perhaps not as far out as we think at first glance.0 -
As it's his first offence, I think the punishment can be limited to three days' exile at ConHome.ydoethur said:
CHBCorrectHorseBattery said:That's the Times.
You probably wouldn’t know this, but OGH has been in trouble before over breaches of copyright when people copy and paste whole articles from paywalled newspapers, including The Times. Would advise you not to do it, however interesting or relevant the article. Just a snippet and a link would be better.2 -
The upper case is higher than that I would have thought.WhisperingOracle said:Someone's got it very wrong again..
This could still be anything from a hung parliament to a 40 seat majority, I think.0 -
Re the Times my apologies, I didn't realise and I'll hold my hands up to that - wouldn't wish anyone to get into trouble.0
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That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.CorrectHorseBattery said:15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
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While we are still in the EU that kind of punishment is not legal.RobD said:
As it's his first offence, I think the punishment can be limited to three days' exile at ConHome.ydoethur said:
CHBCorrectHorseBattery said:That's the Times.
You probably wouldn’t know this, but OGH has been in trouble before over breaches of copyright when people copy and paste whole articles from paywalled newspapers, including The Times. Would advise you not to do it, however interesting or relevant the article. Just a snippet and a link would be better.
Damn it, that's the ECHR I'm getting mixed up again.1 -
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Remain? I thought you voted Leave.kle4 said:
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.0 -
Somebody left their sense of humour at home todayglw said:
That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.CorrectHorseBattery said:15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
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Of course it is corbyn is poison even worse than Johnson.kinabalu said:
The upper case is higher than that I would have thought.WhisperingOracle said:Someone's got it very wrong again..
This could still be anything from a hung parliament to a 40 seat majority, I think.0 -
Deltapoll constituency polls were due at 7pm.0
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My humour is just fine, I'm simply tired of reading your nonsense every time a new poll crops up.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Somebody left their sense of humour at home todayglw said:
That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.CorrectHorseBattery said:15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
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Not all Leavers are still leavers. Though I do not see leaving with a deal as a disaster.Stark_Dawning said:
Remain? I thought you voted Leave.kle4 said:
Those sort of polls give me hope of a HP which, despite all the terrible things that come with it, is the only path to remain, but is it not just as easy to identify several dozen seats where tactical voting could swing the seats to the Tories with only a few thousands or hundred votes?CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson would be denied a majority if fewer than 41,000 people voted tactically in 36 seats that could swing the election, according to a major new poll.
A survey of almost 30,000 voters found that the Conservatives are on course to win 345 seats in the House of Commons, giving Johnson a majority of 40.
However, analysis for the Best for Britain campaign for a second EU referendum found that in 36 seats, the Tory candidate could be defeated by 2,500 or fewer anti-Brexit voters switching their vote — with an average of just 1,131 votes needed in each constituency.0 -
You don't need to respond you know, you're not required to.glw said:
My humour is just fine, I'm simply tired of reading your nonsense every time a new poll crops up.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Somebody left their sense of humour at home todayglw said:
That's rich coming from you, when you have poured cold water on dozens of polls you didn't like over the last few weeks. You are not fooling anybody on here with your ill-thought-out opinions about polling, this is the worst place for you to post such claptrap and think you can get away with it.CorrectHorseBattery said:15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
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You kid, but I remember "always take the best number for Conservatives and the worst number for Labour" being said seriously here in 2017RobD said:
Ridiculous. We don't know if there are any better ones yet.CorrectHorseBattery said:15 point is the true poll, that is what the Tories on here will say!
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The new gold standard!wooliedyed said:Opinium is unchanged 15 point lead 46 to 31
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Posted 16s ago, lolMikeL said:Deltapoll constituency polls were due at 7pm.
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/12033915825877729310 -
Actually, a better punishment would be to set his bedtime to 9.55pm on Thursday....kle4 said:
While we are still in the EU that kind of punishment is not legal.RobD said:
As it's his first offence, I think the punishment can be limited to three days' exile at ConHome.ydoethur said:
CHBCorrectHorseBattery said:That's the Times.
You probably wouldn’t know this, but OGH has been in trouble before over breaches of copyright when people copy and paste whole articles from paywalled newspapers, including The Times. Would advise you not to do it, however interesting or relevant the article. Just a snippet and a link would be better.
Damn it, that's the ECHR I'm getting mixed up again.0 -
We wouldn't want to live in the ignominium of having been taken in by Opinium.melcf said:
Opinium always overestimates the ToriesMarqueeMark said:
That'll do, Pig......RobD said:Here's the numbers:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203386379226505221
Keep the champagne back on ice0 -
Guildford, I knew it!0
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Some time after 7pm, it's up to the client.MikeL said:Deltapoll constituency polls were due at 7pm.
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Well no one can accuse Opinium of herding!0
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That Guildford poll tallies up with my experience, so it must be right!2
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Out of interest I'm comparing a plot of Jeremy Corbyn's campaign visits and rallies to his from 2017.
In 2017 Corbyn campaigned almost evenly accross england, but did no campaigning south of the Thames, and very little in wales and scotland.
Corbyn visited almost all places along the M62 and M56.
This time he is doing almost no campaigning in the space between London and Birmigham, and a lot more in wales, scotland, the east mildands and the rural north west.
Corbyn has visited almost all places on the M1 from Nottingham to Sheffield.
Glaringly I don't think he has visited Lincon, Bedford and Norwich this time.0 -
Extremely close!CorrectHorseBattery said:That Guildford poll tallies up with my experience, so it must be right!
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If we become the 51st State, OTOH, that will be barred under the Eighth Amendment.kle4 said:
While we are still in the EU that kind of punishment is not legal.RobD said:
As it's his first offence, I think the punishment can be limited to three days' exile at ConHome.ydoethur said:
CHBCorrectHorseBattery said:That's the Times.
You probably wouldn’t know this, but OGH has been in trouble before over breaches of copyright when people copy and paste whole articles from paywalled newspapers, including The Times. Would advise you not to do it, however interesting or relevant the article. Just a snippet and a link would be better.
Damn it, that's the ECHR I'm getting mixed up again.0 -
It shows libdems just about taking GuildfordMikeL said:Deltapoll constituency polls were due at 7pm.
https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/12033913064558223420 -
A killer stat from the opinium guts. The labour campaign is viewed more negatively than May's 2017 campaign.1
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They should have polled Winchester, which is quite similar to Guildford from recollection.1
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Good lord, lol.wooliedyed said:A killer stat from the opinium guts. The labour campaign is viewed more negatively than May's 2017 campaign.
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Southport, constituency voting intention:
CON: 43% (+4)
LAB: 35% (+2)
LDEM: 22% (-4)
via @DeltaPoll, 02 - 06 Dec
Chgs. w/ GE20170 -
Bets:
Lab in Doncaster North @1.5 (!) - £15
Lab in Barnsley Central @1.3 - £10 - thought this was good value but suggestions today it might be far closer than it ought to be
Lab in Aberavon @1.3 - £10
Lab in Canterbury @ 2.0 - £8
Lab in Lincoln @2.5 - £3
NOM @2.5 - £20
Con seats 290-299 @33 - £3
SNP in Aberdeen S @1.44 - £10
PC in Ronddha @13 - £5
All for fun - no overall strategy bar bets to ease the pain as Con falls short, again...1 -
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