politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories drop five seats on the spreads following the Andrew Nei

In 2017, the mood music was all "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".

This time, its northern and midland accents saying "I've never voted Tory before, but I'm voting for Boris" for either Brexit or hating Corbyn reasons.

Major underlying shift.

Stocky said:

MarkLittlewood said:

My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

I`ve railed against bloody floating voters for years. But I should fess up and say that I am seriously considering abandoning the LibDems next week in favour of the Greens. I cannot align myself with some of Swinson`s comments, such as those around transgender issues and her refusals to defend LibDem`s role in the coalition government.

I guess it depends on which seat you are in. Understandable in a seat where the LDs have no hope. Equivalent to voting Conservative if they are in with a chance (assuming it is not one of those rare LD/Lab seats).

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Owls, 'drifting like a barge' = 'drifting by the smallest measurable margin'?

Not saying we shouldn't pay attention to even small changes, but calling mice mountains is a bit inaccurate.

I think that was my point.

Its been at 1.4 ish all week but some posters insist on reporting every tiny move.

I had my sarcasm button depressed.

MarkLittlewood said:

My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

I'm not sure I believe that. Anecdotally for instance my mother, Ex-public sector manager centrist Labour-leaner, has atypically yet to complete her postal vote. I sense she isn't unusual this election.

I think there's a lot of people who aren't enamoured with the choice in front of them who will eventually plump for what they view is the least worst option, or just not bother.

alb1on said:

Stocky said:

MarkLittlewood said:

My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

I`ve railed against bloody floating voters for years. But I should fess up and say that I am seriously considering abandoning the LibDems next week in favour of the Greens. I cannot align myself with some of Swinson`s comments, such as those around transgender issues and her refusals to defend LibDem`s role in the coalition government.

I guess it depends on which seat you are in. Understandable in a seat where the LDs have no hope. Equivalent to voting Conservative if they are in with a chance (assuming it is not one of those rare LD/Lab seats).

I don`t go in for tactical voting - and in any case my constituency votes Tory by a mile anyway.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Bother in Barnsley?

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1203011112205246464

Labour are in depth-doo if those two seats are in play. Even with 11% lead, MRP has those still has easy holds for Labour. I don't believe it.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Bother in Barnsley?

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1203011112205246464

Below is the full email, sent by Farage to BXP supporters this afternoon:

"In the last week of the General Election campaign, we are focusing our efforts on seats where we have the best chance of getting Brexit Party MPs elected. That’s why I’m going to South Yorkshire on Monday for a big action day.

Join me on Monday, and let’s get our two Barnsley candidates over the line!


CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP


In both Barnsley Central and Barnsley East, it’s a two-horse race between The Brexit Party and Corbyn’s Remainer Labour. Both are Leave-voting Labour seats, where many people feel betrayed by Labour — the party of a second referendum and Remain.

Yet the Conservatives have NEVER won in Barnsley. Only The Brexit Party can beat Corbyn’s Remainer Labour there. That message is winning a lot of support for our candidates — Victoria Felton in Barnsley Central and Jim Ferguson in Barnsley East.

Join me in South Yorkshire on Monday. With your help, we can win! "

stodge said:

melcf said:

I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'.
Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom?
Let me think
- Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few?
- Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children
- cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care
- Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit
- Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises
- lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat
--- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024

There is a valid question which is why nearly fifteen years after the 7/7/attacks, we are still seeing home-grown radicalised Islamists spreading terror in London?

Successive Governments have implemented layer upon layer of a security state with surveillance aplenty and yet we have completely failed to eradicate the root cause of the problem in any meaningful sense for all the death in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.

I imagine Johnson and Patel will witter on about longer sentences, tougher this and harsher that but ultimately we seem no nearer ending the scourge of such terror.

The solution is more austerity and oven ready Brexit??

MikeL said:

Six polls so far this week (ie fieldwork ending 2 Dec) onwards - average lead 9.8% - almost identical to last week's ELBOW.

This is the change in the gap so far this campaign...

MikeSmithson said:

Black_Rook said:

Alistair said:

I presume the Tory majority price is being anchored by BMG.

They have the lower bound on the Tory lead. If BMG are right we are in hung parliament territory.

Alternatively, Opinium have got it right and there's going to be a landslide. Or nobody's got it right and Labour are going to win a majority.

Nobody knows for sure, but the range of information available points to a moderate Conservative majority as the most likely outcome. And I remain to be convinced that the Neil faux outrage episode will make the blindest bit of difference.

Issues like this can impact on turnout. The question is how much.

I think a workable CON majority that's sustainable to May 2024 is the likely outcome

Would it be in order to quote you on a Conservative leaflet?

Stats for Lefties continues to post upbeat articles for Labour, including one in the Guardian today, but in the quiet of his Twitter commentary, some of the frustration comes out:

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1203009398244818944

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Bother in Barnsley?

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1203011112205246464

Labour are in depth-doo if those two seats are in play. Even with 11% lead, MRP has those still has easy holds for Labour. I don't believe it.

I sincerely hope they're not going to lose Barnsley Central
Might have to go and deliver there myself lol

I think as somebody said up thread it is more likely that for once in their life they aren't getting the 99% UP THE REDs response and going oh shit.

FrancisUrquhart said:

maaarsh said:

Jason said:

This is the third thread out of the previous four about Andrew Neill.

Leave him alone - he's hardly going to post about the Lib Dems so there has to be something to keep spirits up

The Lib whos?

The Lib Dem's. You must remember them. They have access to a Polling and election expert and everything.

BluerBlue said:

Stats for Lefties continues to post upbeat articles for Labour, including one in the Guardian today, but in the quiet of his Twitter commentary, some of the frustration comes out:

twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1203009398244818944

In the crazed world of fake news twitter bollocks. I have to say I miss sites like Left Foot Forward. Actually using you know like real data that wasn't so spun it would dry your clothes at the same time to try to make an argument.

With the amount of negative press, Corbyn has been stigmatised like herpes or STI.
Loads have it, but most never talk about it!? That explains the 40% in 2017?
What is the tory catch phrase to the Northern working class in 2019
No bread for 9.5 years, have oven ready Brexit
Get shafted for another 5 years

melcf said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Jason said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

andy3664 said:

Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.

A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives

If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.

It is interesting that nobody is talking about policy anymore. Last few days, it has all been about personality. Labour's train bribe seems to have sunk without trace. The dodgy doctor was hyping it as the biggest moment of the campaign.

I think Labour are really struggling to accept the hurt and damage they've done to some of their most loyal voters over Brexit. I also think they're struggling to accept that millions of people do not believe their notion that a government can borrow and tax the thick end of a trillion quid with out there being wider and profoundly damaging consequences to the economy.

The public have seen through Labour's brass necked bribes for the complete and utter bollocks they are.

I think Brexit has very little to do with it. It is the Corbyn factor, pure and simple.

If the Tories get a majority when they are as shit as they are it is Corbyn Wot Won It (for the Tories)

Corbyn was there in 2017, when they got 40% of votes. What has changed since then? Three Tory PMs, more austerity and a buffon with a 350 million bus? We heard the same shyte in 2017 but the Northern wall didn't crack

Last time Corbyn got most of the Remainers (undeservedly) and kept a good chunk of the Leavers (deservedly). This time he'll get most of the Remainers (deservedly), and lose most of the Leavers (deservedly). What's left for him is numerically much smaller than in 2017.

That's the difference.

Today's revelations from Jez have finished the Tories hopes in Northern Ireland I think

The electoral calculus puts Wrexham, Vale of Clywd and many seats in the North as Labour in the lead by a mile. Suprising poll, recently done at Wrexham, Tories at 44 and Labour at 29. Not what I'm hearing from the ground.
Dream on, at this time in 2017, Bet fred had an 86% Tory majority!

I have received an e mail today asking Labour Members in Chesterfield to go to Bolsover and NE Derbyshire for the remainder of the Campaign.

As i am not able to walk more than about 10 paces wont be doing either but i think the former is close the latter unwinnable

melcf said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Jason said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

andy3664 said:

Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.

A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives

If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.

It is interesting that nobody is talking about policy anymore. Last few days, it has all been about personality. Labour's train bribe seems to have sunk without trace. The dodgy doctor was hyping it as the biggest moment of the campaign.

I think Labour are really struggling to accept the hurt and damage they've done to some of their most loyal voters over Brexit. I also think they're struggling to accept that millions of people do not believe their notion that a government can borrow and tax the thick end of a trillion quid with out there being wider and profoundly damaging consequences to the economy.

The public have seen through Labour's brass necked bribes for the complete and utter bollocks they are.

I think Brexit has very little to do with it. It is the Corbyn factor, pure and simple.

If the Tories get a majority when they are as shit as they are it is Corbyn Wot Won It (for the Tories)

Corbyn was there in 2017, when they got 40% of votes. What has changed since then? Three Tory PMs, more austerity and a buffon with a 350 million bus? We heard the same shyte in 2017 but the Northern wall didn't crack

In 2017, he looked good compared to the utterly awful Tory campaign - but I suspect a lot of people had made up their minds about him because of the media without really seeing much of him.

2017 was his second chance at making a first impression, and he polished himself up, kept his temper in check, and didn't look too bad, so I think people gave him the benefit of the doubt.

The antisemitism issues that have come more to the fore since then, and his prevarication on Brexit have pushed him far into -ve popularity again, but this time it's sticking as most people now have a solid impression of him. Doing ok, and not being a three-headed monster aren't enough this time around.

stodge said:

melcf said:

I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'.
Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom?
Let me think
- Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few?
- Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children
- cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care
- Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit
- Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises
- lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat
--- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024

There is a valid question which is why nearly fifteen years after the 7/7/attacks, we are still seeing home-grown radicalised Islamists spreading terror in London?

Successive Governments have implemented layer upon layer of a security state with surveillance aplenty and yet we have completely failed to eradicate the root cause of the problem in any meaningful sense for all the death in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.

I imagine Johnson and Patel will witter on about longer sentences, tougher this and harsher that but ultimately we seem no nearer ending the scourge of such terror.

Why do you think that we face such a threat Stodge?

Lets be honest, its not just us is it.

You can't blame it all on the Iraq war considering preceding events and the number of countries attacked who had nothing to do with a "war on terror"

So what do you think underpins these attacks throughout the world?

What do you think is the answer?

bigjohnowls said:

I have received an e mail today asking Labour Members in Chesterfield to go to Bolsover and NE Derbyshire for the remainder of the Campaign.

As i am not able to walk more than about 10 paces wont be doing either but i think the former is close the latter unwinnable

Sorry to hear you are not well.

For those confident Conservatives and despairing Socialists, news that demonstrates that the most extreme outsider can defeat the favourite. In the London Chess Classic Maxime Vachier-Lagrave beat world champion Magnus Carlsen. In the GE this would be the equivalent of the Greens winning a majority!

melcf said:

The electoral calculus puts Wrexham, Vale of Clywd and many seats in the North as Labour in the lead by a mile. Suprising poll, recently done at Wrexham, Tories at 44 and Labour at 29. Not what I'm hearing from the ground.
Dream on, at this time in 2017, Bet fred had an 86% Tory majority!

You planning on being here next Friday? Personally, I doubt it.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Jason said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

andy3664 said:

Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.

A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives

If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.

It is interesting that nobody is talking about policy anymore. Last few days, it has all been about personality. Labour's train bribe seems to have sunk without trace. The dodgy doctor was hyping it as the biggest moment of the campaign.

I think Labour are really struggling to accept the hurt and damage they've done to some of their most loyal voters over Brexit. I also think they're struggling to accept that millions of people do not believe their notion that a government can borrow and tax the thick end of a trillion quid with out there being wider and profoundly damaging consequences to the economy.

The public have seen through Labour's brass necked bribes for the complete and utter bollocks they are.

I think Brexit has very little to do with it. It is the Corbyn factor, pure and simple.

If the Tories get a majority when they are as shit as they are it is Corbyn Wot Won It (for the Tories)

This. Although Brexit hasn't helped, Labour's winning coalition contains two types of voter who are much more hesitant about voting for the party this time, pretty much solely due to Corbyn. First there's the metropolitan remainers who think he's crap, pro-Brexit and very possibly antisemitic, but many of whom have inched back into the fold as Labour have come up with some kind of Brexit offer, and they have judged Johnson's sins as worse than Corbyn's - but probably not by enough to make 2017 advances in the south that will offset the second group, traditional working class Labour voters in the Midlands and North. They despise Corbyn for different reasons - because he's the epitome of the north London do-gooder who thinks he understands their lives but doesn't.

There's a fairly simple point. If you voted Brexit because of some unease over immigration and a sense of Britain losing power and pride, why would you cast your vote, even if you'd take a chance on a referendum, for a bloke who is a staunch supporter of the type of immigration (taking in large numbers of the less fortunate) that people like least, and gives every impression he isn't massively keen on Britain having either pride or power?

BluerBlue said:

melcf said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Jason said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

andy3664 said:

Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.

A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives

If it`s a bad day for the Tories it`s escaped my notice.

It is interesting that nobody is talking about policy anymore. Last few days, it has all been about personality. Labour's train bribe seems to have sunk without trace. The dodgy doctor was hyping it as the biggest moment of the campaign.

I think Labour are really struggling to accept the hurt and damage they've done to some of their most loyal voters over Brexit. I also think they're struggling to accept that millions of people do not believe their notion that a government can borrow and tax the thick end of a trillion quid with out there being wider and profoundly damaging consequences to the economy.

The public have seen through Labour's brass necked bribes for the complete and utter bollocks they are.

I think Brexit has very little to do with it. It is the Corbyn factor, pure and simple.

If the Tories get a majority when they are as shit as they are it is Corbyn Wot Won It (for the Tories)

Corbyn was there in 2017, when they got 40% of votes. What has changed since then? Three Tory PMs, more austerity and a buffon with a 350 million bus? We heard the same shyte in 2017 but the Northern wall didn't crack

Last time Corbyn got most of the Remainers (undeservedly) and kept a good chunk of the Leavers (deservedly). This time he'll get most of the Remainers (deservedly), and lose most of the Leavers (deservedly). What's left for him is numerically much smaller than in 2017.

That's the difference.

So Brexit is the solution to all, simples? So a single mum in Grimsby, recent homeless with her two kids and shafted by universal credit, all thanks to Tories AND who voted leave, is automatically gonna vote Tories this time. Elementary dear Watson ??
Or many in Lincoln will vote Tory despite having a mega prik like Karl McCartney as their candidate ? Who has been involved in expenses fiddling and is generally perceived as an arrogant caunt.. if only life was so simple

melcf said:

The electoral calculus puts Wrexham, Vale of Clywd and many seats in the North as Labour in the lead by a mile. Suprising poll, recently done at Wrexham, Tories at 44 and Labour at 29. Not what I'm hearing from the ground.
Dream on, at this time in 2017, Bet fred had an 86% Tory majority!

Are you in Wrexham then

Got distracted on Twitter and found this:
https://twitter.com/VikiLovesFACS/status/1202212904071811082

Updated chart:

https://imgur.com/U7qd6Zc

RobD said:

Updated chart:

https://imgur.com/U7qd6Zc

Even I'm saying Tory victory likely now. That line is remarkably steady.

BluerBlue said:

RobD said:

Updated chart:

https://imgur.com/U7qd6Zc

My favourite part of the day!

I even added the current day on there!

Floater said:

Why do you think that we face such a threat Stodge?

Lets be honest, its not just us is it.

You can't blame it all on the Iraq war considering preceding events and the number of countries attacked who had nothing to do with a "war on terror"

So what do you think underpins these attacks throughout the world?

What do you think is the answer?

No it's far from being solely a UK problem and I never intimated that was the case.

I didn't reference the Iraq War in isolation but the invasion and subsequent de-stabilisation of Iraq leading to the rise of ISIS or ISIL were factors.

It's a multi-layered problem with many facets and responses. There are groups and individuals trying to counter radicalisation at home but if I had to come up with a simple solution, I'd offer capitalism.

People who are busy making money are usually too busy to make trouble - poverty and resentment are great breeding grounds for extremism.

I also think we need to make a new effort to resolve the Middle East with the Palestinians and others accepting Israel's right to exist backed by Israel supporting (with Saudi oil money) the economic re-generation of the West Bank and Gaza. Israel's best guarantee of survival is or are prosperous stable neighbours.

That's just the start - my point was nearly a generation since 9/11, what progress have we made?

nico67 said:

Looks like a pretty static picture pollwise.

The Tories will be happy with that .

If the lead was say 10 points going into Election Day then I’m sure they’d take that , I still think though they might be a bit nervous.

Labour are bound to squeeze a bit more out of the Lib Dems and Greens and the turnout could be very difficult to predict at this stage .

In 2017 Labour found in general an extra 3 points from a bigger turnout in their supporters than expected from polls.

It's possible to fall short of a majority with some pretty high leads, so they will be nervous right to the end, but if it is 10 it is pretty hard to not win, even with some major regional variations. I'm expecting it to be closer than that, but only a few % closer than the polls.

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarkLittlewood said:

My own theory, for what little it's worth, is that there aren't really many floating voters in this campaign compared to others because the issues at stake are so divisive.

I'm really struggling to imagine the sort of voter who is till weighing up whether to vote Tory, labour or Liberal. There will be some, of course, but i expect many fewer than is typical.

Differential turnout, scale of tactical voting or the polls being systematically wrong might lead to a surprise result, but most people's voting intentions have been frozen in aspic for several weeks.

The only ones I can think of are your Southern soft Tory remainer types, thinking can we really go for Boris or do we go Lib Dem. That could obviously swing 10 seats in the South.

The big factor in this GE, given how the Tories have set their campaign, is do they break the Red firewall in the Midlands and especially the North. If they don't, all those southern seats are going to make it very iffy for a majority, if they do, things could swing a lot more than UNS to the Tories.

I think this is spot on.

RobD said:

BluerBlue said:

RobD said:

Updated chart:

https://imgur.com/U7qd6Zc

My favourite part of the day!

I even added the current day on there!

Is the Yougov megapoll represented by three of the circles there? If so can you say which ones?

alb1on said:

For those confident Conservatives and despairing Socialists, news that demonstrates that the most extreme outsider can defeat the favourite. In the London Chess Classic Maxime Vachier-Lagrave beat world champion Magnus Carlsen. In the GE this would be the equivalent of the Greens winning a majority!

MVL is world number 4 and the 7th highest rated chess player of all time. He is in no way an extreme outsider
Hes been rated world number 2 at his highest

Big_G_NorthWales said:

andy3664 said:

Maybe nobody will notice, but today has been a terrible day for the Tories.

A grovelling apology by Channel 4 for doctoring a Boris speech and Sturgeon, Starmer, Abbott, Umunna and others having to make desperate attempts to delete their tweets is a bad day for the conservatives

Will the BJorgs who immediately stated that it was perfectly acceptable terminology while simultaneously being brilliantly targetted at a certain type of voter also be making desperate attempts to delete their posts? Let's hope they don't succeed 'cos it was fckn hilarious.

RobD said:

geoffw said:

RobD said:

BluerBlue said:

RobD said:

Updated chart:

https://imgur.com/U7qd6Zc

My favourite part of the day!

I even added the current day on there!

Is the Yougov megapoll represented by three of the circles there? If so can you say which ones?

Which mega poll is this?

the 100,000

Would make my day if Bolsover was a Portillo moment.

geoffw said:

RobD said:

geoffw said:

RobD said:

BluerBlue said:

RobD said:

Updated chart:

https://imgur.com/U7qd6Zc

My favourite part of the day!

I even added the current day on there!

Is the Yougov megapoll represented by three of the circles there? If so can you say which ones?

Which mega poll is this?

the 100,000

Oh, I don’t think that is on here.

stodge said:

Are we going to have to live like this for the rest of time? At what point and in what way can we look forward to a time when we no longer need the depth and volume of counter-terrorist infrastructure? Yes, we may be more safe and secure now than ever and I accept the price of that freedom is eternal vigilance but ultimately a solution to radical Islamism will have to be found - whether that's a political, military or economic solution I'm not sure and it will involve a global as much as a regional effort but I see no sense in which anyone is willing to try to find that resolution.

There has been terrorism of one form or another in the UK since at least the 1880s. Even if Islamist terrorism wanes, and I doubt it will as the source is no longer just the Middle East, we can expect other extremists to take up terrorism to try to advance their cause. I would expect real terrorism from the extreme of the environmental movement in the long run.

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1202975165505769474

My attention has just been drawn to the above.

Anthony J Wells! Doyen of UKPR! The man, the legend himself. Good lad.

bigjohnowls said:

I have received an e mail today asking Labour Members in Chesterfield to go to Bolsover and NE Derbyshire for the remainder of the Campaign.

As i am not able to walk more than about 10 paces wont be doing either but i think the former is close the latter unwinnable

Missed that you were unwell BJO. Hope it all gets sorted for you very soon and best wishes. Some things are far more important than political disagreements.

BluerBlue said:

RobD said:

Updated chart:

https://imgur.com/U7qd6Zc

My favourite part of the day!

Agreed. Of course if you were evil you’d add a yellow line......

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

Updated chart:

https://imgur.com/U7qd6Zc

1. Campaign period starts, Tory lead around 10%
2. Tories crush Brexit Party, lead expands
3. Labour squeezes Lib Dem vote, lead contracts
4. Tory lead stabilises at 10% again, no further movement

Unless there's a 5. then, whilst party vote shares have changed significantly, the campaign will have made no net difference at all to the Conservative lead.

I think the apparent sine wave is an artefact of "poll-of-polls" and the fact that pollsters publish at different times. I've argued against poll-of-polls in the past because they capture house effects as well as real movements.

Richard_Tyndall said:

bigjohnowls said:

I have received an e mail today asking Labour Members in Chesterfield to go to Bolsover and NE Derbyshire for the remainder of the Campaign.

As i am not able to walk more than about 10 paces wont be doing either but i think the former is close the latter unwinnable

Missed that you were unwell BJO. Hope it all gets sorted for you very soon and best wishes. Some things are far more important than political disagreements.

Absolutely. All the best BJO

Andrew said:

RobD said:

Updated chart:
https://imgur.com/U7qd6Zc

Pretty graph.

Last time the polls were this stable during a campaign was 2010, and they got it pretty much spot on (result +7.2%, average of final polls 6.9)

Difference between then and now is that the Lib Dem seat count has broadly switched to the SNP count which makes it harder for Labour but easier for the Tories to get a majority

stodge said:

melcf said:

I keep hearing this ' Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser'.
Well, if one was a real terrorist, how would they try and harm the United Kingdom?
Let me think
- Causing misery and economic hardships for the many, not the few?
- Make tens of thousands homeless, specially single mums and children
- cause rising death rate amongst the elderly, due to cuts in social and health care
- Cause internal divisions and a near civil war among the general population, by divisive games, such as Brexit
- Cause a slump in the economy and with the falling pound, rising prises
- lastly, try and bring our centuries old United Kingdom union under threat
--- Sorry, Mr Terrorist, no vacancy for the above. Thus job has been filed, for the last 9.5 years, with excellent references. Come back in 2024

There is a valid question which is why nearly fifteen years after the 7/7/attacks, we are still seeing home-grown radicalised Islamists spreading terror in London?

Successive Governments have implemented layer upon layer of a security state with surveillance aplenty and yet we have completely failed to eradicate the root cause of the problem in any meaningful sense for all the death in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.

I imagine Johnson and Patel will witter on about longer sentences, tougher this and harsher that but ultimately we seem no nearer ending the scourge of such terror.

But if they are locked up they are unable to murder people on our streets.

glw said:

There has been terrorism of one form or another in the UK since at least the 1880s. Even if Islamist terrorism wanes, and I doubt it will as the source is no longer just the Middle East, we can expect other extremists to take up terrorism to try to advance their cause. I would expect real terrorism from the extreme of the environmental movement in the long run.

True - I've lived in London all my life and have always lived with terror.

I was simply hoping we could be better.

I do agree the next form of terror could well be eco-terrorism which would take a very different form to radical Islamism.

Pulpstar said:

Andrew said:

RobD said:

Updated chart:
https://imgur.com/U7qd6Zc

Pretty graph.

Last time the polls were this stable during a campaign was 2010, and they got it pretty much spot on (result +7.2%, average of final polls 6.9)

Difference between then and now is that the Lib Dem seat count has broadly switched to the SNP count which makes it harder for Labour but easier for the Tories to get a majority

Probably more for 2024 than now, but it does look quite challenging for Labour to get an overall majority of one without a big Scottish recovery. One for Friday morning if we’re not all surprised by a hung Parliament I guess.