politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab’s rock solid safe seat now a key GE2019 battlegro
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Sorry. This is now an Exe contest.Nigelb said:
Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.ydoethur said:
We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.Mexicanpete said:
I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You're Avon a laugh!Mexicanpete said:
Hats off! You are on fire tonight!ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
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rcs1000 said:
This has to be one of the best stories of 2019: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/22/asia/china-jails-men-outsource-murder-plot-intl-hnk/index.html
Capitalism - you can't beat it! 0 -
Who are the Others at 6? That seems extremely strange to be +5 !?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Renamed McDonnell's.BluerBlue said:
4 polls so far this week ... and the only change is Tories +1 in Kantar.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Corbyn had better hurry up with that red wave. Is there anything left to nationalise? McDonald's, maybe?1 -
Tutt, Tutt.ydoethur said:
Sorry. This is now an Exe contest.Nigelb said:
Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.ydoethur said:
We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.Mexicanpete said:
I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You're Avon a laugh!Mexicanpete said:
Hats off! You are on fire tonight!ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
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You can dress it up any way you want but the fact remains that he was too scared to be interviewed by AN because it would expose his lies. It won't matter as far as the GE is concerned but it will matter afterwardsPhilip_Thompson said:
There's nothing new. Cameron didn't do it either and I respected him.nichomar said:
You know Johnson would be left a shivering jelly if he did the interview so you hide behind ‘he doesn’t he has to do it’ it’s pathetic but the great British public will not notice and all you are interested in is a Tory majority regardless how and on what basis it is gained. The new definition of one nation Tory makes me laugh as apparently a one nation Tory is reflective of the membership who think they occupy the center ground, well it’s a view.Philip_Thompson said:
They don't "allow" anything, party leaders choose which engagements they wish to partake in. Just because Corbyn and May agreed to Neil doesn't mean anyone else has to do so.kinabalu said:
The Neil thing stands out. It relates to the fairness of election coverage by our national broadcaster. They've allowed one party leader to avoid the engagement which carries the most risk.Pulpstar said:Lib Dems good politics/cheating in the Esher ground game
Tories good politics/cheating in the Neill interview
Labour good politics/cheating leaking out sensitive/secret documents on the NHS
Did they "allow" Cameron and Brown to avoid Neil in 2010?
Did they "allow" Cameron and Miliband to avoid Neil in 2015?
Did they "allow" Blair and Howard to avoid Neil in 2005?
Not a single leader I respect has ever agreed to be interviewed by Neil during an election campaign.
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Wensum one complains it's time to stop.ThomasNashe said:
Orwell, it was fun while it lasted.Gallowgate said:Tyne to stop this now guys.
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SNP 4%. Tasty.1
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Another poll showing Labour's recovery has fizzled out...0
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What's your preferred outcome @nichomar ?nichomar said:
Not if it means corbyn, sorry. Vote lib dem to show both of them they are useless. But it’s stupid because con 60+ majority so let’s stop playing games and start to realize that corbyn is the tories massive helper.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
Not the worst person to have a resemblance to.Mexicanpete said:
I reckon Silva. Has anyone ever mentioned you have an uncanny resemblance to Johnny Depp?Philip_Thompson said:Who's getting sacked first: Corbyn, Swinson or Silva?
I picked the avatar because people were throwing around the term "Libertarian Pirate Island" as an insult. I rather find the idea attractive not insulting so decided to roll with it.0 -
OMRLP surge!wooliedyed said:
PC max 1% and nobody else could be more than 1% as they arent standing widely. 1% each for Change, Yorkshire, Liberal, SDP and the Loonies??!nichomar said:
Independents but that can’t count for +5 so there is a wobble in the dataMaxPB said:
That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.0
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I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!1 -
It Derwent stale Severn jokes agoydoethur said:
Sorry. This is now an Exe contest.Nigelb said:
Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.ydoethur said:
We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.Mexicanpete said:
I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You're Avon a laugh!Mexicanpete said:
Hats off! You are on fire tonight!ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
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more like 3 weeks nearly.maaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!1 -
Lord Buckethead a shoo innichomar said:
OMRLP surge!wooliedyed said:
PC max 1% and nobody else could be more than 1% as they arent standing widely. 1% each for Change, Yorkshire, Liberal, SDP and the Loonies??!nichomar said:
Independents but that can’t count for +5 so there is a wobble in the dataMaxPB said:
That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
That's others 1 others moving to CON soon 5Philip_Thompson said:
Who are the Others at 6? That seems extremely strange to be +5 !?CorrectHorseBattery said:
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Really? Wye would you think that?spudgfsh said:
It Derwent stale Severn jokes agoydoethur said:
Sorry. This is now an Exe contest.Nigelb said:
Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.ydoethur said:
We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.Mexicanpete said:
I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You're Avon a laugh!Mexicanpete said:
Hats off! You are on fire tonight!ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
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I don't think I ever said it would be over. I have less hope than I did then in truth - but I still have hopemaaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! 0 -
Conwy stop this now please? You'll have us begging for Mersey.spudgfsh said:
It Derwent stale Severn jokes agoydoethur said:
Sorry. This is now an Exe contest.Nigelb said:
Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.ydoethur said:
We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.Mexicanpete said:
I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You're Avon a laugh!Mexicanpete said:
Hats off! You are on fire tonight!ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
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Conservatives OM now 1.4 on Betfair0
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(Last one) You're Afan a laugh.spudgfsh said:
It Derwent stale Severn jokes agoydoethur said:
Sorry. This is now an Exe contest.Nigelb said:
Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.ydoethur said:
We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.Mexicanpete said:
I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You're Avon a laugh!Mexicanpete said:
Hats off! You are on fire tonight!ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
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In the words of John Cleese - it's the hope that kills you.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I don't think I ever said it would be over. I have less hope than I did then in truth - but I still have hopemaaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!1 -
Lord have Mersey!ydoethur said:
Our race is Arun.ThomasNashe said:
Orwell, it was fun while it lasted.Gallowgate said:Tyne to stop this now guys.
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The SDP are back, back, back...MaxPB said:
That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
River puns.
Absolutely no nene.0 -
In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.ozymandias said:
more like 3 weeks nearly.maaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
True. If Johnson gets a majority I'll be very sad - but such is life.ozymandias said:
In the words of John Cleese - it's the hope that kills you.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I don't think I ever said it would be over. I have less hope than I did then in truth - but I still have hopemaaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
Healthy free market there.Peter_the_Punter said:rcs1000 said:This has to be one of the best stories of 2019: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/22/asia/china-jails-men-outsource-murder-plot-intl-hnk/index.html
Capitalism - you can't beat it!0 -
The odds for Ilford South are wrong generally. The idea Gapes has a personal vote is one of the funniest ideas in a while3
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It only seems to be down to higher turnout in Scotland for some reason rather than a genuine surge in SNP support. They're only on 40% in the subsample.StuartDickson said:SNP 4%. Tasty.
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In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.JamesP said:
In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.ozymandias said:
more like 3 weeks nearly.maaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
Look ouse talkin.Casino_Royale said:River puns.
Absolutely no nene.1 -
Preferred would be a hung parliament brought on by a significant lib dem presence having taken 30 of Tory and 5/6 of labour it’s not going to happen. I’ve now moved to building a platform for the future which from my view requires a resurgent lib dem party and a Labour Party that has to face into the realities of life. Johnson will win, the tories will try to pretend it’s close but it isn’t there needs to be a sane center left political grouping in the UK and if labour fail to fulfill that role then it will be up to the lib dems.Benpointer said:
What's your preferred outcome @nichomar ?nichomar said:
Not if it means corbyn, sorry. Vote lib dem to show both of them they are useless. But it’s stupid because con 60+ majority so let’s stop playing games and start to realize that corbyn is the tories massive helper.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
Did anyone Esk you ?Casino_Royale said:River puns.
Absolutely no nene.0 -
Yes, let's see if they fall back down to ~30% and if we can stay in the low to mid 40s.GIN1138 said:
Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.MaxPB said:Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.
The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
There's nothing about the current Labour campaign that screams anything other than "defend the castle" because the enemy is at the gates.
I'm still waiting for their final freebie to be the Labour dividend, it's got to be on the way. Maybe something like £2000 cash per year per person to vote Labour.1 -
Trump to win California?ozymandias said:
In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.JamesP said:
In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.ozymandias said:
more like 3 weeks nearly.maaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
Possible. Unlikely but possible.JamesP said:
Trump to win California?ozymandias said:
In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.JamesP said:
In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.ozymandias said:
more like 3 weeks nearly.maaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
I'd rather be dead in a ditch than see that happen.JamesP said:
Trump to win California?ozymandias said:
In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.JamesP said:
In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.ozymandias said:
more like 3 weeks nearly.maaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
Shit pun, not your finest Stour.Nigelb said:
I was just being a Tees.ydoethur said:
I can’t stand Humber bragging.Nigelb said:
Ure pretty Rye this evening.ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
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The movement in the polls appears to have stopped. If we simply take the 14 most recent nationwide polls currently listed on Wiki (i.e. those between the Kantar and ICM completed on 25 November and the most recent YouGov,) the mean value for the parties is as follows:CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!
Con 42.6%
Lab 33.0%
LD 13.1%
Of the individual polling figures, 11 of the 14 Conservative values, 13 of the 14 Lib Dem values and all of the Labour values are within 2% of the mean.
This doesn't imply, of course, that further movement is impossible. But it could well imply that those voters liable to be swayed have now been so, and that the campaign could be effectively over.0 -
Not in Chorley that can't.ozymandias said:
In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.JamesP said:
In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.ozymandias said:
more like 3 weeks nearly.maaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! 0 -
The even huger promises have gone against them this time, in 2017 they were claiming they could do big things but it was this side of toothpast manufacturers claims. This time they have to go bigger because of their own rhetoric, if the system was so awful and the rich to terrible they HAD to be brought into line so they HAD to go big or they were no better than the despised centrists and *spits* Tories.GIN1138 said:Another poll showing Labour's recovery has fizzled out...
But at a certain point people just cannot believe that people with no track record of...well....anything, can pull off such a huge change so quickly. Mainly because they can't, their own experience of large bureaucracy being so limited they assume it must be easy because their own academic and philosophical readings tell them so. Change is easy, if you believe hard enough.
These are people that ignore Holodomor and the Great leap forward in their own readings of history and point towards tractor figures.0 -
It's sad to see this kind of mindset of the US right infiltrate this country. It's a weirdly zero sum approach to politics (I can only be made happier by someone else being unhappier). As I think you note, ultimately it is people on the right who are being played by their political leaders - it's a distraction technique so you don't notice they're doing nothing to actually improve your life.BluerBlue said:
The desire to "own the libs" (i.e. to make self-righteous lefty outriders choke on their political impotence) is not a small part of the populist right's electoral appeal.saddened said:
Easily amused. But, there's a lot to be amused about. The screaming and screaming until they're sick, about not appearing on AN is hilarious.kinabalu said:
You are rather petty in other words?saddened said:I think Boris, will be average at best. But what I like about him, is his ability to drive his opponents to foot stamping , teary eyed, frothing at the mouth impotent rage. It's not fair, it's not fair. He has to do AN, he just HAS to!
Delicious.
It's precisely because they send our despised opponents into a childish frenzy that we put up with a lot of stuff that would be less palatable if they were boring, straight bats.
Boris vs. May in a nutshell.0 -
Very Twee-d!Casino_Royale said:River puns.
Absolutely no nene.0 -
I'm still thinking it will be complete abolition of tuition fees, announced on Saturday evening.MaxPB said:
Yes, let's see if they fall back down to ~30% and if we can stay in the low to mid 40s.GIN1138 said:
Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.MaxPB said:Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.
The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
There's nothing about the current Labour campaign that screams anything other than "defend the castle" because the enemy is at the gates.
I'm still waiting for their final freebie to be the Labour dividend, it's got to be on the way. Maybe something like £2000 cash per year per person to vote Labour.
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I guess point is there are fringe candidates who people select when shown ballot paper.
Whereas in previous poll no ballot paper so people were unaware of those candidates.
Hence Others UP.0 -
Trump brought over his electoral mind-control installations with him. Came over in a cargo plane shadowing Airforce One. They're being deployed from Stansted in secret convoys right now.Benpointer said:
Not in Chorley that can't.ozymandias said:
In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.JamesP said:
In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.ozymandias said:
more like 3 weeks nearly.maaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
Seems a bit weird to do this with just a week to go!MikeL said:I guess point is there are fringe candidates who people select when shown ballot paper.
Whereas in previous poll no ballot paper so people were unaware of those candidates.
Hence Others UP.0 -
No need for such Ribbledry.KentRising said:
Shit pun, not your finest Stour.Nigelb said:
I was just being a Tees.ydoethur said:
I can’t stand Humber bragging.Nigelb said:
Ure pretty Rye this evening.ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
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Is he marked as Independent or Labour on the ballotBenpointer said:
Not in Chorley that can't.ozymandias said:
In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.JamesP said:
In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.ozymandias said:
more like 3 weeks nearly.maaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
Not the worst person to have a resemblance to!Mexicanpete said:
I reckon Silva. Has anyone ever mentioned you have an uncanny resemblance to Johnny Depp?Philip_Thompson said:Who's getting sacked first: Corbyn, Swinson or Silva?
I picked the avatar because people kept using the phrase "Libertarian Pirate Island" as an insult. I find the idea attractive not insulting.0 -
Are the Pirate Party libertarian?Philip_Thompson said:
Not the worst person to have a resemblance to!Mexicanpete said:
I reckon Silva. Has anyone ever mentioned you have an uncanny resemblance to Johnny Depp?Philip_Thompson said:Who's getting sacked first: Corbyn, Swinson or Silva?
I picked the avatar because people kept using the phrase "Libertarian Pirate Island" as an insult. I find the idea attractive not insulting.0 -
And that will finish them off for good.GIN1138 said:
I'm still thinking it will be complete abolition of tuition fees, announced on Saturday evening.MaxPB said:
Yes, let's see if they fall back down to ~30% and if we can stay in the low to mid 40s.GIN1138 said:
Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.MaxPB said:Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.
The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
There's nothing about the current Labour campaign that screams anything other than "defend the castle" because the enemy is at the gates.
I'm still waiting for their final freebie to be the Labour dividend, it's got to be on the way. Maybe something like £2000 cash per year per person to vote Labour.
The more they promise now the sillier they seem. If it had been in the manifesto - fair enough - but this will just look like throwing shit at walls now.0 -
I have heard it springs eternal, so that's fine.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I still live in hope.
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Climb down the rabbit hole of lefty Twitter and you'll see it's far from limited to the right. The left has been doing it long before us and better - winning acres of cultural ground while losing on economics - so for rightwingers it's still a great novelty to have leaders who can incense our more aggravating opponents the way they aggravate us. We haven't really had it in this country since Thatcher!OnlyLivingBoy said:
It's sad to see this kind of mindset of the US right infiltrate this country. It's a weirdly zero sum approach to politics (I can only be made happier by someone else being unhappier). As I think you note, ultimately it is people on the right who are being played by their political leaders - it's a distraction technique so you don't notice they're doing nothing to actually improve your life.BluerBlue said:
The desire to "own the libs" (i.e. to make self-righteous lefty outriders choke on their political impotence) is not a small part of the populist right's electoral appeal.saddened said:
Easily amused. But, there's a lot to be amused about. The screaming and screaming until they're sick, about not appearing on AN is hilarious.kinabalu said:
You are rather petty in other words?saddened said:I think Boris, will be average at best. But what I like about him, is his ability to drive his opponents to foot stamping , teary eyed, frothing at the mouth impotent rage. It's not fair, it's not fair. He has to do AN, he just HAS to!
Delicious.
It's precisely because they send our despised opponents into a childish frenzy that we put up with a lot of stuff that would be less palatable if they were boring, straight bats.
Boris vs. May in a nutshell.1 -
Um, hold on there a moment young Smithson, is that true? I think you are allowed to finance a policy objective (eg low taxation) but if it's party political (above a threshold?) then it has to be declared. This is Britain: there's always a form to fill out. Even if you are not a party member.rcs1000 said:
There's a fine line here.Sandpit said:Guido doubling down, it turns out that “advance together” are standing five candidates, all in LD/Con contests, and are doing no campaigning except for high-quality anti-Tory leaflets that don’t mention their candidate, and all run by people who were active LDs two years ago. Their ‘party leader’ ran a website suggesting that she was trying to attract Tory to LD switchers.
https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/advance-together-party-leader-objective-syphon-tory-votes-lib-dems/
I imagine someone is going to report this to the police and Electoral Commission, hope there’s no emails anywhere, or maybe they were all with the press officer they suspended this week?
If I stand in Jo Swinson's seat, and put out anti-Jo Swinson literature, that doesn't mention my name. Well, that's my business. I'm not associated with any political party so if I want to spend my money in that way, then that's fine.
But if I was being bankrolled by the SNP, or what I was doing was at the behest of the SNP, then I would have crossed a line.
My guess is that there will not be sufficient evidence that it was the latter.0 -
Wouldn't even solve the issue, just kick the can down the road.ozymandias said:
And that will finish them off for good.GIN1138 said:
I'm still thinking it will be complete abolition of tuition fees, announced on Saturday evening.MaxPB said:
Yes, let's see if they fall back down to ~30% and if we can stay in the low to mid 40s.GIN1138 said:
Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.MaxPB said:Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.
The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
There's nothing about the current Labour campaign that screams anything other than "defend the castle" because the enemy is at the gates.
I'm still waiting for their final freebie to be the Labour dividend, it's got to be on the way. Maybe something like £2000 cash per year per person to vote Labour.
The more they promise now the sillier they seem. If it had been in the manifesto - fair enough - but this will just look like throwing shit at walls now.0 -
The Speaker always stands as "The Speaker seeking re-election" or some very similar formula.Pulpstar said:
Is he marked as Independent or Labour on the ballotBenpointer said:
Not in Chorley that can't.ozymandias said:
In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.JamesP said:
In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.ozymandias said:
more like 3 weeks nearly.maaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
Nigelb said:
No need for such Ribbledry.KentRising said:
Shit pun, not your finest Stour.Nigelb said:
I was just being a Tees.ydoethur said:
I can’t stand Humber bragging.Nigelb said:
Ure pretty Rye this evening.ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
Wye oh wye?0 -
The real Lord Buckethead(ie Count Binface) or the fake one?wooliedyed said:
Lord Buckethead a shoo innichomar said:
OMRLP surge!wooliedyed said:
PC max 1% and nobody else could be more than 1% as they arent standing widely. 1% each for Change, Yorkshire, Liberal, SDP and the Loonies??!nichomar said:
Independents but that can’t count for +5 so there is a wobble in the dataMaxPB said:
That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Well it would also have to involve writing current debt off which they can only do by compensating those who bought the loan book. I doubt that many graduates believe it’s financially doable, the only thing they could offer is a revision to market rates and some movement on the payment triggers and write off times. Labour are desperate, they know they are in a hole but then losing as a true socialist was always more important than doing something for the less well off.GIN1138 said:
I'm still thinking it will be complete abolition of tuition fees, announced on Saturday evening.MaxPB said:
Yes, let's see if they fall back down to ~30% and if we can stay in the low to mid 40s.GIN1138 said:
Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.MaxPB said:Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.
The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
There's nothing about the current Labour campaign that screams anything other than "defend the castle" because the enemy is at the gates.
I'm still waiting for their final freebie to be the Labour dividend, it's got to be on the way. Maybe something like £2000 cash per year per person to vote Labour.0 -
With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
I’d Rother not go into that.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Wye oh wye?Nigelb said:
No need for such Ribbledry.KentRising said:
Shit pun, not your finest Stour.Nigelb said:
I was just being a Tees.ydoethur said:
I can’t stand Humber bragging.Nigelb said:
Ure pretty Rye this evening.ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
0 -
Well there is that too.HaroldO said:
Wouldn't even solve the issue, just kick the can down the road.ozymandias said:
And that will finish them off for good.GIN1138 said:
I'm still thinking it will be complete abolition of tuition fees, announced on Saturday evening.MaxPB said:
Yes, let's see if they fall back down to ~30% and if we can stay in the low to mid 40s.GIN1138 said:
Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.MaxPB said:Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.
The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
There's nothing about the current Labour campaign that screams anything other than "defend the castle" because the enemy is at the gates.
I'm still waiting for their final freebie to be the Labour dividend, it's got to be on the way. Maybe something like £2000 cash per year per person to vote Labour.
The more they promise now the sillier they seem. If it had been in the manifesto - fair enough - but this will just look like throwing shit at walls now.0 -
Chelt up!Nigelb said:
I’d Rother not go into that.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Wye oh wye?Nigelb said:
No need for such Ribbledry.KentRising said:
Shit pun, not your finest Stour.Nigelb said:
I was just being a Tees.ydoethur said:
I can’t stand Humber bragging.Nigelb said:
Ure pretty Rye this evening.ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
0 -
-
Nor in most of Northern Ireland.Benpointer said:
Not in Chorley that can't.ozymandias said:
In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.JamesP said:
In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.ozymandias said:
more like 3 weeks nearly.maaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!
0 -
They did the poll in East Devon and Beaconsfield?MaxPB said:
That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Putting ComRes into the model hardly changes it.
Tories two off an overall majority (technically but not in practice).
0 -
They only really need 4 points. All to play for.viewcode said:
With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
True indeed. Those of us who do not wish to see a Tory majority must now put our faith in the pollsters having made a right horlicks of this election.viewcode said:
With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!
It's not like they've been wrong before is it?0 -
Professor Karlan explains why Tump need to be impeached:
https://www.businessinsider.com/pamela-karlan-impeachment-witness-texas-analogy-trump-ukraine-scandal-2019-12?r=US&IR=T
0 -
I also think/hope this is the caseBenpointer said:
True indeed. Those of us who do not wish to see a Tory majority must now put our faith in the pollsters having made a right horlicks of this election.viewcode said:
With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!
It's not like they've been wrong before is it? 0 -
I didn't spot you when we were canvassing there. But as Cove's go, Hope is one of the prettiest in our Totnes constituency.....CorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Final-Daily-Telegraph-GE2019-VI-Poll-04c12d19h.pdf
8 point lead with all respondents likely to vote.
I think also 18-24 intention is up again.
I still live in hope.
https://www.visitsouthdevon.co.uk/things-to-do/hope-cove-beach-p1800030 -
I still think there is the possibility of a shy Labour effect. Just a feeling.0
-
So just the 10pm megapoll to spoil the party?0
-
Are we Don with the rother puns yet ?0
-
I think he'll get a huge voteBlack_Rook said:
The Speaker always stands as "The Speaker seeking re-election" or some very similar formula.Pulpstar said:
Is he marked as Independent or Labour on the ballotBenpointer said:
Not in Chorley that can't.ozymandias said:
In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.JamesP said:
In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.ozymandias said:
more like 3 weeks nearly.maaarsh said:
I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!0 -
Do we seriously think MRP is just going to come out of nowhere?0
-
ComRes has Green 2 - not 3 as recorded on Wiki.0
-
That'll be the Tay!Nigelb said:
I’d Rother not go into that.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Wye oh wye?Nigelb said:
No need for such Ribbledry.KentRising said:
Shit pun, not your finest Stour.Nigelb said:
I was just being a Tees.ydoethur said:
I can’t stand Humber bragging.Nigelb said:
Ure pretty Rye this evening.ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
0 -
YouGov have said that they'll be doing another one but didn't commit to when. I personally expect it to be much nearer to the election (Monday or Tuesday)CorrectHorseBattery said:Do we seriously think MRP is just going to come out of nowhere?
0 -
2015: Polls on average overstated LabourBenpointer said:
True indeed. Those of us who do not wish to see a Tory majority must now put our faith in the pollsters having made a right horlicks of this election.viewcode said:
With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!
It's not like they've been wrong before is it?
2017: Polls on average understated Labour
2019: ?0 -
That's the wrong table linked to! (26-27 Nov)MikeL said:ComRes has Green 2 - not 3 as recorded on Wiki.
0 -
A balanced parliament is just about at the edge of MoE. So a bit of swing would be helpful.Benpointer said:
True indeed. Those of us who do not wish to see a Tory majority must now put our faith in the pollsters having made a right horlicks of this election.viewcode said:
With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!
It's not like they've been wrong before is it?0 -
I'd say it's the other way around.CorrectHorseBattery said:I still think there is the possibility of a shy Labour effect. Just a feeling.
1 -
Perhaps they're holding it to see if they get an upset. They'll know any shrinkage of the Tory lead, or increasing of the Tory lead, will make better headlines.spudgfsh said:
YouGov have said that they'll be doing another one but didn't commit to when. I personally expect it to be much nearer to the election (Monday or Tuesday)CorrectHorseBattery said:Do we seriously think MRP is just going to come out of nowhere?
0 -
How much did it matter for Cameron and Blair?OllyT said:
You can dress it up any way you want but the fact remains that he was too scared to be interviewed by AN because it would expose his lies. It won't matter as far as the GE is concerned but it will matter afterwardsPhilip_Thompson said:
There's nothing new. Cameron didn't do it either and I respected him.nichomar said:
You know Johnson would be left a shivering jelly if he did the interview so you hide behind ‘he doesn’t he has to do it’ it’s pathetic but the great British public will not notice and all you are interested in is a Tory majority regardless how and on what basis it is gained. The new definition of one nation Tory makes me laugh as apparently a one nation Tory is reflective of the membership who think they occupy the center ground, well it’s a view.Philip_Thompson said:
They don't "allow" anything, party leaders choose which engagements they wish to partake in. Just because Corbyn and May agreed to Neil doesn't mean anyone else has to do so.kinabalu said:
The Neil thing stands out. It relates to the fairness of election coverage by our national broadcaster. They've allowed one party leader to avoid the engagement which carries the most risk.Pulpstar said:Lib Dems good politics/cheating in the Esher ground game
Tories good politics/cheating in the Neill interview
Labour good politics/cheating leaking out sensitive/secret documents on the NHS
Did they "allow" Cameron and Brown to avoid Neil in 2010?
Did they "allow" Cameron and Miliband to avoid Neil in 2015?
Did they "allow" Blair and Howard to avoid Neil in 2005?
Not a single leader I respect has ever agreed to be interviewed by Neil during an election campaign.0 -
No Nidd to be so dismissive.Sunil_Prasannan said:
That'll be the Tay!Nigelb said:
I’d Rother not go into that.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Wye oh wye?Nigelb said:
No need for such Ribbledry.KentRising said:
Shit pun, not your finest Stour.Nigelb said:
I was just being a Tees.ydoethur said:
I can’t stand Humber bragging.Nigelb said:
Ure pretty Rye this evening.ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
0 -
The Goldilocks election?Sunil_Prasannan said:
2015: Polls on average overstated LabourBenpointer said:
True indeed. Those of us who do not wish to see a Tory majority must now put our faith in the pollsters having made a right horlicks of this election.viewcode said:
With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hopeydoethur said:
I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.CorrectHorseBattery said:So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!
It's not like they've been wrong before is it?
2017: Polls on average understated Labour
2019: ?0 -
Sticking with your 40-38 prediction?CorrectHorseBattery said:I still think there is the possibility of a shy Labour effect. Just a feeling.
0 -
I am for now yes.Brom said:
Sticking with your 40-38 prediction?CorrectHorseBattery said:I still think there is the possibility of a shy Labour effect. Just a feeling.
0 -
Dee-sist!!!Sunil_Prasannan said:
That'll be the Tay!Nigelb said:
I’d Rother not go into that.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Wye oh wye?Nigelb said:
No need for such Ribbledry.KentRising said:
Shit pun, not your finest Stour.Nigelb said:
I was just being a Tees.ydoethur said:
I can’t stand Humber bragging.Nigelb said:
Ure pretty Rye this evening.ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
0 -
All this punning requires some Trentchent criticism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
That'll be the Tay!Nigelb said:
I’d Rother not go into that.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Wye oh wye?Nigelb said:
No need for such Ribbledry.KentRising said:
Shit pun, not your finest Stour.Nigelb said:
I was just being a Tees.ydoethur said:
I can’t stand Humber bragging.Nigelb said:
Ure pretty Rye this evening.ydoethur said:
Their prize is ouseing away.StuartDickson said:Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
0
This discussion has been closed.