The election of course is not over, easy to forget we had 11 and 12 poll leads (alongside some small ones) this time in 2017, not to mention a second terrorist attack. I personally had a breakthrough moment on Monday evening when I started to feel the public was taking note of the Labour giveaway losing traction and the Tory campaign clicking into gear (after a few poor days in Manifesto week).
I would be hugely surprised if the Tory victory percentage is not bigger than 3% last time out but I also feel a 5 or 6% win is possible, both of which in my mind carry a small chance of a hung parliament. There should be zero room for complacency, thinks can unravel very quickly if focus is lost, but I’m hoping every day the status quo continues the Tories will be at the very least piling up a decent postal vote lead.
The election of course is not over, easy to forget we had 11 and 12 poll leads (alongside some small ones) this time in 2017, not to mention a second terrorist attack. I personally had a breakthrough moment on Monday evening when I started to feel the public was taking note of the Labour giveaway losing traction and the Tory campaign clicking into gear (after a few poor days in Manifesto week).
I would be hugely surprised if the Tory victory percentage is not bigger than 3% last time out but I also feel a 5 or 6% win is possible, both of which in my mind carry a small chance of a hung parliament. There should be zero room for complacency, thinks can unravel very quickly if focus is lost, but I’m hoping every day the status quo continues the Tories will be at the very least piling up a decent postal vote lead.
There also has to be at least one more attempt at a massive public bribe by Labour.
No bread? Eat Brexit Spent hours trawling through social posts of candidates up North. Few recurring themes are as follows- Brexit, Austerity, NHS, Cuts, Corbyn is scum Significant percentages want Brexit done and are miffed about their local MPs voting against the bill. Very interesting, people are so engrossed in brexit, they forget basic bread and butter issues.
The whole thing has been an absolute triumph in displacement activity, engineered by a few obsessives and rich men meeting in stately homes.
Just watched the Swinson interview. I thought she played Neil off the park.
The Neil Boris has been hiding from? Destroyed by a girly swot Even Achilles had a heel that was held as he was dipped, perhaps Boris was dipped by his neils
Putting ComRes into the model hardly changes it. Tories two off an overall majority (technically but not in practice).
Your Lib Dem seats look way too optimistic.
I’ve been giving poor Barnesian a lot of grief over this for a while. Not sure even the most ambitious Lib Dem reckons they will take some of those SW or NW seats. These were seats that were probably going to fall when they were polling 18% but not anymore.
Putting ComRes into the model hardly changes it. Tories two off an overall majority (technically but not in practice).
Your Lib Dem seats look way too optimistic.
I’ve been giving poor Barnesian a lot of grief over this for a while. Not sure even the most ambitious Lib Dem reckons they will take some of those SW or NW seats. These were seats that were probably going to fall when they were polling 18% but not anymore.
Agree, I think the 12 - 15 range. Poor leader,campaign going nowhere & flat-lining at best in the polls.
Interesting that Ivan Lewis in Bury South has endorsed the Conservatives despite being on the ballot paper as an independent.
Happened in the future NI at the 1918 Election - there were a couple of seats where SF and the Irish Party endorsed one another despite both being on the ballot. But in Down East the pact broke down and the Unionists won on a split Nationalist vote.
The longer this campaign has gone on, the less inclined I am to vote for any of the three main parties:-
1. Corbyn: no. Lots of reasons - mainly dragging his party into a Far Leftist illiberal anti-Semitic gutter. And the WASPI bribe has really annoyed me. 2. Boris: no. A total charlatan. Has made a Faustian pact with the Hard Brexiteers for the sake of his ambition thereby trashing the main things which made traditional Conservatism worthwhile. 3. Swinson: strategically inept and talking dangerous rubbish over the Gender Recognition Act. Apparently expecting people with gender dysphoria to undergo medical tests is too too ghastly to contemplate but women are expected to put up with having men invade their private spaces and the risk of some of them abusing that. In Lib Dem La-La-land, rape is not as ghastly as being asked questions by a doctor.
In my constituency that leaves the Brexit Party (as if!) or the Greens.
The longer this campaign has gone on, the less inclined I am to vote for any of the three main parties:-
1. Corbyn: no. Lots of reasons - mainly dragging his party into a Far Leftist illiberal anti-Semitic gutter. And the WASPI bribe has really annoyed me. 2. Boris: no. A total charlatan. Has made a Faustian pact with the Hard Brexiteers for the sake of his ambition thereby trashing the main things which made traditional Conservatism worthwhile. 3. Swinson: strategically inept and talking dangerous rubbish over the Gender Recognition Act. Apparently expecting people with gender dysphoria to undergo medical tests is too too ghastly to contemplate but women are expected to put up with having men invade their private spaces and the risk of some of them abusing that. In Lib Dem La-La-land, rape is not as ghastly as being asked questions by a doctor.
In my constituency that leaves the Brexit Party (as if!) or the Greens.
Or the Meeks option - abstaining in person.
What a choice.
My choice at this election is LD or Con. I live in a very safe seat so it won't make any difference, which in some ways gives you more freedom to choose how to vote. It means you don't have to consider voting tactically to keep out a party you don't like.
The election of course is not over, easy to forget we had 11 and 12 poll leads (alongside some small ones) this time in 2017, not to mention a second terrorist attack. I personally had a breakthrough moment on Monday evening when I started to feel the public was taking note of the Labour giveaway losing traction and the Tory campaign clicking into gear (after a few poor days in Manifesto week).
I would be hugely surprised if the Tory victory percentage is not bigger than 3% last time out but I also feel a 5 or 6% win is possible, both of which in my mind carry a small chance of a hung parliament. There should be zero room for complacency, thinks can unravel very quickly if focus is lost, but I’m hoping every day the status quo continues the Tories will be at the very least piling up a decent postal vote lead.
There also has to be at least one more attempt at a massive public bribe by Labour.
Yep there is definitely a bribe in the offing, the Tories will be expecting this and many on here have speculated it will be student loan based. I’d say Labour have a few issues with this:
1. I think they have pushed spending giveaways too far that they have damaged credibility and become detrimental to winning round undecided voters 2. Students and young graduates are on balance not the votes they need, they have them already and by and large they are outside the 2019 battleground 3. The votes they do need if anything will be repelled by giveaways to the young middle classes given they are predominently older voters who had no education beyond 18.
I think with Trump buggering off their best chance to make a dent in the Tory lead has disappeared across the Atlantic so I expect Labour to just double down on the NHS for a few more days and hope it’s somehow newsworthy enough to scare Lab to Tory switchers.
The election of course is not over, easy to forget we had 11 and 12 poll leads (alongside some small ones) this time in 2017, not to mention a second terrorist attack. I personally had a breakthrough moment on Monday evening when I started to feel the public was taking note of the Labour giveaway losing traction and the Tory campaign clicking into gear (after a few poor days in Manifesto week).
I would be hugely surprised if the Tory victory percentage is not bigger than 3% last time out but I also feel a 5 or 6% win is possible, both of which in my mind carry a small chance of a hung parliament. There should be zero room for complacency, thinks can unravel very quickly if focus is lost, but I’m hoping every day the status quo continues the Tories will be at the very least piling up a decent postal vote lead.
There also has to be at least one more attempt at a massive public bribe by Labour.
Yep there is definitely a bribe in the offing, the Tories will be expecting this and many on here have speculated it will be student loan based. I’d say Labour have a few issues with this:
1. I think they have pushed spending giveaways too far that they have damaged credibility and become detrimental to winning round undecided voters 2. Students and young graduates are on balance not the votes they need, they have them already and by and large they are outside the 2019 battleground 3. The votes they do need if anything will be repelled by giveaways to the young middle classes given they are predominently older voters who had no education beyond 18.
I think with Trump buggering off their best chance to make a dent in the Tory lead has disappeared across the Atlantic so I expect Labour to just double down on the NHS for a few more days and hope it’s somehow newsworthy enough to scare Lab to Tory switchers.
OJ and his mates are having a go at the "voting Tories means you want to kill babies" line currently, well on twitter. This whole thing is going to get worse before the big day occurs.
The longer this campaign has gone on, the less inclined I am to vote for any of the three main parties:-
1. Corbyn: no. Lots of reasons - mainly dragging his party into a Far Leftist illiberal anti-Semitic gutter. And the WASPI bribe has really annoyed me. 2. Boris: no. A total charlatan. Has made a Faustian pact with the Hard Brexiteers for the sake of his ambition thereby trashing the main things which made traditional Conservatism worthwhile. 3. Swinson: strategically inept and talking dangerous rubbish over the Gender Recognition Act.
Or the Meeks option - abstaining in person.
What a choice.
Nothing wrong in not voting in normal times. With the main parties as they are, these ain’t normal just as you describe, so even more reason not voting is honourable position. No one died for you to vote so you got to vote, they died so you can make your own mind up and voice it on this blog without bullying and threats or worse. I’m of similar mind except I fear brexit on this country its impact on the poorest most disadvantaged in this country. Brexit will break the mould and transform our politics, and the soul of our country. If UK continues it’s decline in the world, increasingly like a third world country with extremes between rich and poor and increased volatility in living standards in between those extremes, which seems almost certain considering post industrial with huge demographic time bomb, and how our cowardly safety first politics missed the bus transforming our economy and revolutionising our tax system, (death/dementia tax, HS2 anyone?) then it is this culture that will shape the politics. If this is the culture you won’t be able to escape it’s impact on politics as we drift away from centre governments into populism. Populism pushes the idea of popular sovereignty above the independence of democratic institutions, and above professionalism of the representatives of those institutions. Where populism doesn’t like government, has no time for criticism in media or from politics or politicians, I will oppose that populism. Only one thing provokes me more than populist opportunism masquerading as values and agenda for government, this is moralist ideology. Moralist ideology repeating itself to believe it is the voice of all the people, deaf to anyone with a dissimilar view. Its not a head over emotion decision just as Brexit isn’t emotion over head decision, being old I too feel the desire to turn the clock back, so it’s a weigh up of what emotion and head says, and in my opinion we will be more wealthy and stable going forward if we remain. And thinking of the future generations who take the baton, leaving them wealthy and stable is the best thing to leave them.
Comments
I would be hugely surprised if the Tory victory percentage is not bigger than 3% last time out but I also feel a 5 or 6% win is possible, both of which in my mind carry a small chance of a hung parliament. There should be zero room for complacency, thinks can unravel very quickly if focus is lost, but I’m hoping every day the status quo continues the Tories will be at the very least piling up a decent postal vote lead.
Even Achilles had a heel that was held as he was dipped, perhaps Boris was dipped by his neils
Poor leader,campaign going nowhere & flat-lining at best in the polls.
1. Corbyn: no. Lots of reasons - mainly dragging his party into a Far Leftist illiberal anti-Semitic gutter. And the WASPI bribe has really annoyed me.
2. Boris: no. A total charlatan. Has made a Faustian pact with the Hard Brexiteers for the sake of his ambition thereby trashing the main things which made traditional Conservatism worthwhile.
3. Swinson: strategically inept and talking dangerous rubbish over the Gender Recognition Act. Apparently expecting people with gender dysphoria to undergo medical tests is too too ghastly to contemplate but women are expected to put up with having men invade their private spaces and the risk of some of them abusing that. In Lib Dem La-La-land, rape is not as ghastly as being asked questions by a doctor.
In my constituency that leaves the Brexit Party (as if!) or the Greens.
Or the Meeks option - abstaining in person.
What a choice.
1. I think they have pushed spending giveaways too far that they have damaged credibility and become detrimental to winning round undecided voters
2. Students and young graduates are on balance not the votes they need, they have them already and by and large they are outside the 2019 battleground
3. The votes they do need if anything will be repelled by giveaways to the young middle classes given they are predominently older voters who had no education beyond 18.
I think with Trump buggering off their best chance to make a dent in the Tory lead has disappeared across the Atlantic so I expect Labour to just double down on the NHS for a few more days and hope it’s somehow newsworthy enough to scare Lab to Tory switchers.
I’m of similar mind except I fear brexit on this country its impact on the poorest most disadvantaged in this country. Brexit will break the mould and transform our politics, and the soul of our country. If UK continues it’s decline in the world, increasingly like a third world country with extremes between rich and poor and increased volatility in living standards in between those extremes, which seems almost certain considering post industrial with huge demographic time bomb, and how our cowardly safety first politics missed the bus transforming our economy and revolutionising our tax system, (death/dementia tax, HS2 anyone?) then it is this culture that will shape the politics. If this is the culture you won’t be able to escape it’s impact on politics as we drift away from centre governments into populism. Populism pushes the idea of popular sovereignty above the independence of democratic institutions, and above professionalism of the representatives of those institutions. Where populism doesn’t like government, has no time for criticism in media or from politics or politicians, I will oppose that populism. Only one thing provokes me more than populist opportunism masquerading as values and agenda for government, this is moralist ideology. Moralist ideology repeating itself to believe it is the voice of all the people, deaf to anyone with a dissimilar view.
Its not a head over emotion decision just as Brexit isn’t emotion over head decision, being old I too feel the desire to turn the clock back, so it’s a weigh up of what emotion and head says, and in my opinion we will be more wealthy and stable going forward if we remain. And thinking of the future generations who take the baton, leaving them wealthy and stable is the best thing to leave them.
Tranmere Rovers and Liverpool.
EDIT: LOL just spotted the typo 😊