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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab’s rock solid safe seat now a key GE2019 battlegro

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  • Sandpit said:

    Cheating is probably the wrong word given that there is nothing in electoral law that states "thou shalt be interviewed by Andrew Neil," but I get the sentiment. Of course, there is nothing to say that Johnson wouldn't have been interviewed by Neil by now, and Corbyn wouldn't have kept well away, if Labour were doing really well with older voters and Johnson were desperate to win them back. Politicians will be politicians.

    I'm not sure what the BBC is supposed to do about this. They've no power to make the Prime Minister turn up, and there's very little they can do to try to embarass him that wouldn't fall foul of Ofcom - even assuming that any such action would have the effect that you would like. It could just as easily confirm voters who are already inclined to back the Prime Minister in their views of bias at the broadcaster, and thus firm up his support.

    The amazing thing is that Labour, LD, SNP and whoever else, isn’t running their social media 24/7 on Boris being a chicken, don’t have people following him everywhere he goes wearing chicken suits making utter arses of themselves in front of cameras etc etc.
    The typical sort of (younger) voter who gets all their news online isn't going to care that Johnson didn't turn up for a TV interview because they don't watch network TV; consequently, they didn't know that the interview was supposedly meant to be a thing, let alone feel dismayed that they didn't get to see it; and the vast majority of them probably haven't heard of Andrew Neil either.
    Agreed.

    Corbyn and Sturgeon were daft to do the Neil interviews. Johnson played them, and the BBC, beautifully. End of chapter. And another nail in the coffin of state broadcasting.

    The world has moved on. Politicians will wake up eventually.
    Not sure about that. None of this is game-changing stuff. Neil interviews have some impact but aren't massive, water-cooler events.

    Corbyn took a nasty but non-fatal hit by not apologising on antisemitism, and generally being at his stubborn and tetchy worst - a grumpy old man up past his bedtime. Sturgeon had tough questions but is a capable enough politician to deal well enough with it. Swinson probably did herself some favours, answering some doubters who feel she's not up to it. Johnson has had a bit of damage from chickening out, but he's frontrunner and probably correct that it's better to keep quiet and have a few people think you're a dullard than speak and remove all doubt.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464

    nichomar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems good politics/cheating in the Esher ground game
    Tories good politics/cheating in the Neill interview
    Labour good politics/cheating leaking out sensitive/secret documents on the NHS

    The Neil thing stands out. It relates to the fairness of election coverage by our national broadcaster. They've allowed one party leader to avoid the engagement which carries the most risk.
    They don't "allow" anything, party leaders choose which engagements they wish to partake in. Just because Corbyn and May agreed to Neil doesn't mean anyone else has to do so.

    Did they "allow" Cameron and Brown to avoid Neil in 2010?
    Did they "allow" Cameron and Miliband to avoid Neil in 2015?
    Did they "allow" Blair and Howard to avoid Neil in 2005?
    You know Johnson would be left a shivering jelly if he did the interview so you hide behind ‘he doesn’t he has to do it’ it’s pathetic but the great British public will not notice and all you are interested in is a Tory majority regardless how and on what basis it is gained. The new definition of one nation Tory makes me laugh as apparently a one nation Tory is reflective of the membership who think they occupy the center ground, well it’s a view.
    There's nothing new. Cameron didn't do it either and I respected him.

    Not a single leader I respect has ever agreed to be interviewed by Neil during an election campaign.
    Andrew Neil is good, but he is not God.
    What is the impact of Johnson's standing in the event of say a small win (majority of less than 10)...his conduct of the campaign is hardly likely to endear him to his backbenchers in the event of anything less than a clear win. Avoiding Andrew Neil indicates a lack of backbone and in a party where the MPs are not exactly fulsome in support of BJ a coup may be on the cards
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Bob Willis had been battling prostate cancer for three years, according to Jeff Stelling. RIP Bob
  • SLab drifting in Inverclyde: now 9/2, from 3/1.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Because gender neutral uniforms are more important than spelling/checking your work

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1202224091706667008?s=21

    It's not really an either/or though is it?
    How do you split the two in regard to their importance in education?
    I see the Tories have a policy on ending unfair hospital car parking charges; presumably because that's more important than treating patients.
    I think you’ve missed the point, that being there is a spelling mistake in Swinson’s tweet
    Her tweet is dishonest: it is not a “Plan for Britain’s Future” but rather a plan for England’s future.
    "Stereostype"
  • SLab drifting in Midlothian, now 7/2 (SLab Maj = 885).
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    kinabalu said:

    saddened said:

    I think Boris, will be average at best. But what I like about him, is his ability to drive his opponents to foot stamping , teary eyed, frothing at the mouth impotent rage. It's not fair, it's not fair. He has to do AN, he just HAS to!
    Delicious.

    You are rather petty in other words?
    Easily amused. But, there's a lot to be amused about. The screaming and screaming until they're sick, about not appearing on AN is hilarious.
  • nichomar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems good politics/cheating in the Esher ground game
    Tories good politics/cheating in the Neill interview
    Labour good politics/cheating leaking out sensitive/secret documents on the NHS

    The Neil thing stands out. It relates to the fairness of election coverage by our national broadcaster. They've allowed one party leader to avoid the engagement which carries the most risk.
    They don't "allow" anything, party leaders choose which engagements they wish to partake in. Just because Corbyn and May agreed to Neil doesn't mean anyone else has to do so.

    Did they "allow" Cameron and Brown to avoid Neil in 2010?
    Did they "allow" Cameron and Miliband to avoid Neil in 2015?
    Did they "allow" Blair and Howard to avoid Neil in 2005?
    You know Johnson would be left a shivering jelly if he did the interview so you hide behind ‘he doesn’t he has to do it’ it’s pathetic but the great British public will not notice and all you are interested in is a Tory majority regardless how and on what basis it is gained. The new definition of one nation Tory makes me laugh as apparently a one nation Tory is reflective of the membership who think they occupy the center ground, well it’s a view.

    Corbyn & certainly Swinson have got nothing to lose.
    Anyway from the polling nobody gives a cluck.
  • SLab drifting in Midlothian, now 7/2 (SLab Maj = 885).

    I cannot see Danielle Rowley holding on here at all, even narrowly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Because gender neutral uniforms are more important than spelling/checking your work

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1202224091706667008?s=21

    It's not really an either/or though is it?
    How do you split the two in regard to their importance in education?
    I see the Tories have a policy on ending unfair hospital car parking charges; presumably because that's more important than treating patients.
    I think you’ve missed the point, that being there is a spelling mistake in Swinson’s tweet
    Her tweet is dishonest: it is not a “Plan for Britain’s Future” but rather a plan for England’s future.
    "Stereostype"
    Really? Mine just plays music.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    nichomar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems good politics/cheating in the Esher ground game
    Tories good politics/cheating in the Neill interview
    Labour good politics/cheating leaking out sensitive/secret documents on the NHS

    The Neil thing stands out. It relates to the fairness of election coverage by our national broadcaster. They've allowed one party leader to avoid the engagement which carries the most risk.
    They don't "allow" anything, party leaders choose which engagements they wish to partake in. Just because Corbyn and May agreed to Neil doesn't mean anyone else has to do so.

    Did they "allow" Cameron and Brown to avoid Neil in 2010?
    Did they "allow" Cameron and Miliband to avoid Neil in 2015?
    Did they "allow" Blair and Howard to avoid Neil in 2005?
    You know Johnson would be left a shivering jelly if he did the interview so you hide behind ‘he doesn’t he has to do it’ it’s pathetic but the great British public will not notice and all you are interested in is a Tory majority regardless how and on what basis it is gained. The new definition of one nation Tory makes me laugh as apparently a one nation Tory is reflective of the membership who think they occupy the center ground, well it’s a view.
    There's nothing new. Cameron didn't do it either and I respected him.

    Not a single leader I respect has ever agreed to be interviewed by Neil during an election campaign.
    Andrew Neil is good, but he is not God.
    What is the impact of Johnson's standing in the event of say a small win (majority of less than 10)...his conduct of the campaign is hardly likely to endear him to his backbenchers in the event of anything less than a clear win. Avoiding Andrew Neil indicates a lack of backbone and in a party where the MPs are not exactly fulsome in support of BJ a coup may be on the cards
    I think Johnson now owns the Tory Party. This time last year I thought he had missed the the boat but he is in for the long haul I fear.
  • Libdems drifting in Wimbledon: now 2/1.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Aha! Block quote is working again.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    SLab drifting in Midlothian, now 7/2 (SLab Maj = 885).

    This can hardly be a surprise, they are very weak. I had a quick look at the tables from the latest YouGov and (with the usual health warnings about small sub-samples) the Rule of Halves obeyed by their Scotland-only poll in October appears to hold: SNP/2 = Con; Con/2 = Lab.

    Being outgunned 2:1 in vote share by the SCons is not, dare one say, a recipe for electoral success.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    This has been an awful GE campaign, Johnson has no ideology and Corbyn has a surfeit.
    Neither side has any really practical people left in senior positions, the only reason the Tories are ahead because their plans are more like a slow puncture rather than Labours smashing everything up and starting again.


  • What is the impact of Johnson's standing in the event of say a small win (majority of less than 10)...his conduct of the campaign is hardly likely to endear him to his backbenchers in the event of anything less than a clear win. Avoiding Andrew Neil indicates a lack of backbone and in a party where the MPs are not exactly fulsome in support of BJ a coup may be on the cards

    It's all an expectations game.

    In 2017, at the start of the campaign, if you'd offered a Tory MP a 50 seat majority they would NOT have taken it. They wanted 100+, and polls and local election performance fully justified that. So to go backwards was a disaster and poisoned May's relationship with the party even though she struggled on.

    In 2019, partly due to volatile polls, partly the performance in 2017, partly due to failing to leave the EU as promised. a sensible Tory would have bitten your hand off for say a 30 seat majority. If it turns out to be 10, that's pretty disappointing for them from where the polls are now, but would probably not be seen as spectacularly awful. It's just about adequate to get Johnson's Brexit deal through given the Clarke wing has been killed off and all candidates required to drink the Kool Aid, and to get other legislation through too.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Hi all. Are we getting a YouGov MRP tonight?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Sandpit said:

    Guido doubling down, it turns out that “advance together” are standing five candidates, all in LD/Con contests, and are doing no campaigning except for high-quality anti-Tory leaflets that don’t mention their candidate, and all run by people who were active LDs two years ago. Their ‘party leader’ ran a website suggesting that she was trying to attract Tory to LD switchers.
    https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/advance-together-party-leader-objective-syphon-tory-votes-lib-dems/
    I imagine someone is going to report this to the police and Electoral Commission, hope there’s no emails anywhere, or maybe they were all with the press officer they suspended this week?

    A description of the ex-UKIP “liberals” across the South West...
  • Sajid Javid in North Devon today (BoZo visited last week). It does look as if the Tories are getting rather twitchy about this seat - I await the latest iteration of You Gov MRP with interest.

    https://devonlive.com/news/devon-news/chancellor-sajid-javid-devon-morning-3607596
  • SLab drifting in Midlothian, now 7/2 (SLab Maj = 885).

    I cannot see Danielle Rowley holding on here at all, even narrowly.
    She’s the poorest of a very poor SLab17 crop.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Hi all. Are we getting a YouGov MRP tonight?

    Honestly. We get blockquote back and you still want more?

    Some people are just never satisfied.
  • SLab drifting in Midlothian, now 7/2 (SLab Maj = 885).

    I cannot see Danielle Rowley holding on here at all, even narrowly.
    She’s the poorest of a very poor SLab17 crop.
    Classic SLab nepotistic appointment.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    ydoethur said:

    Hi all. Are we getting a YouGov MRP tonight?

    Honestly. We get blockquote back and you still want more?

    Some people are just never satisfied.
    I am an entitled millennial after all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    Hi all. Are we getting a YouGov MRP tonight?

    Honestly. We get blockquote back and you still want more?

    Some people are just never satisfied.
    I am an entitled millennial after all.
    And a trainee lawyer...
  • nichomar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems good politics/cheating in the Esher ground game
    Tories good politics/cheating in the Neill interview
    Labour good politics/cheating leaking out sensitive/secret documents on the NHS

    The Neil thing stands out. It relates to the fairness of election coverage by our national broadcaster. They've allowed one party leader to avoid the engagement which carries the most risk.
    They don't "allow" anything, party leaders choose which engagements they wish to partake in. Just because Corbyn and May agreed to Neil doesn't mean anyone else has to do so.

    Did they "allow" Cameron and Brown to avoid Neil in 2010?
    Did they "allow" Cameron and Miliband to avoid Neil in 2015?
    Did they "allow" Blair and Howard to avoid Neil in 2005?
    You know Johnson would be left a shivering jelly if he did the interview so you hide behind ‘he doesn’t he has to do it’ it’s pathetic but the great British public will not notice and all you are interested in is a Tory majority regardless how and on what basis it is gained. The new definition of one nation Tory makes me laugh as apparently a one nation Tory is reflective of the membership who think they occupy the center ground, well it’s a view.
    There's nothing new. Cameron didn't do it either and I respected him.

    Not a single leader I respect has ever agreed to be interviewed by Neil during an election campaign.
    Andrew Neil is good, but he is not God.
    What is the impact of Johnson's standing in the event of say a small win (majority of less than 10)...his conduct of the campaign is hardly likely to endear him to his backbenchers in the event of anything less than a clear win. Avoiding Andrew Neil indicates a lack of backbone and in a party where the MPs are not exactly fulsome in support of BJ a coup may be on the cards
    'not exactly fulsome in support'

    As indicated in the recent leadership election?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    edited December 2019

    Sandpit said:

    Cheating is probably the wrong word given that there is nothing in electoral law that states "thou shalt be interviewed by Andrew Neil," but I get the sentiment. Of course, there is nothing to say that Johnson wouldn't have been interviewed by Neil by now, and Corbyn wouldn't have kept well away, if Labour were doing really well with older voters and Johnson were desperate to win them back. Politicians will be politicians.

    I'm not sure what the BBC is supposed to do about this. They've no power to make the ister in their views of bias at the broadcaster, and thus firm up his support.

    The amazing thing is that Labour, LD, SNP and whoever else, isn’t running their social media 24/7 on Boris being a chicken, don’t have people following him everywhere he goes wearing chicken suits making utter arses of themselves in front of cameras etc etc.
    The typical sort of (younger) voter who gets all their news online isn't going to care that Johnson didn't turn up for a TV interview because they don't watch network TV; consequently, they didn't know that the interview was supposedly meant to be a thing, let alone feel dismayed that they didn't get to see it; and the vast majority of them probably haven't heard of Andrew Neil either.
    Agreed.

    Corbyn and Sturgeon were daft to do the Neil interviews. Johnson played them, and the BBC, beautifully. End of chapter. And another nail in the coffin of state broadcasting.

    The world has moved on. Politicians will wake up eventually.
    Not sure about that. None of this is game-changing stuff. Neil interviews have some impact but aren't massive, water-cooler events.

    Corbyn took a nasty but non-fatal hit by not apologising on antisemitism, and generally being at his stubborn and tetchy worst - a grumpy old man up past his bedtime. Sturgeon had tough questions but is a capable enough politician to deal well enough with it. Swinson probably did herself some favours, answering some doubters who feel she's not up to it. Johnson has had a bit of damage from chickening out, but he's frontrunner and probably correct that it's better to keep quiet and have a few people think you're a dullard than speak and remove all doubt.
    Johnson is not a dullard, but he is unquestionably a liar and Neil would have hammered that home relentlessly. Nevertheless a non-appearance is weak and will cost - not hugely, but something. Had he appeared, that would have cost too, but again not hugely. Most people already know he's a liar and have factored that in.

    On the whole, six of one and half a dozen of the other.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    saddened said:

    kinabalu said:

    saddened said:

    I think Boris, will be average at best. But what I like about him, is his ability to drive his opponents to foot stamping , teary eyed, frothing at the mouth impotent rage. It's not fair, it's not fair. He has to do AN, he just HAS to!
    Delicious.

    You are rather petty in other words?
    Easily amused. But, there's a lot to be amused about. The screaming and screaming until they're sick, about not appearing on AN is hilarious.
    Oddly enough this is neither a reality TV show, comedy (well at times it is) or a football match it’s supposedly about who is the most competent potential PM with the best policies.
    Corbyn fails on both criteria
    Johnson fails on the first and nobody knows what his five year plan is on the second.
    Our voting system makes others views irrelevant so whilst you find humor in the situation many find it rather sad. Johnson will, undeservedly win by 60-80 corbyn will lead labour to a worse result than Foot but apart from the lie of getting brexit done nobody really knows what the duplicitous self promoting idiot will do. Funny though it is not.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited December 2019

    They don't "allow" anything, party leaders choose which engagements they wish to partake in. Just because Corbyn and May agreed to Neil doesn't mean anyone else has to do so.

    Did they "allow" Cameron and Brown to avoid Neil in 2010?
    Did they "allow" Cameron and Miliband to avoid Neil in 2015?
    Did they "allow" Blair and Howard to avoid Neil in 2005?

    No need for anal and deflecting linguistic contortions. The point is that just the one leader has managed to avoid the toughest BBC interview. This is not a good thing. It's a bad thing. Doesn't invalidate the election or anything - perspective - but it is a poor show. You need to accept the obvious truth of this conclusion.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Serious question. Discussions about Bolsover in previous threads. Do people think this is a seat a Labour would hold with a younger and more energetic candidate, or is it only Skinner’s personal popularity that has kept it red for so long?

    I think we can all agree Skinner is past it. His legendary level of attendance was well down last time I checked and he’s not been up to the usual standard of invective recently. But I was wondering what impact that was having.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Hi all. Are we getting a YouGov MRP tonight?

    In my sketchy memory I thought it was the 11th it was getting updated, but could easily be wrong.
  • @Sandpit

    Why do you read Guido? He got the Bum's Rush from here many years ago, and with good reason.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    No tele here, but from comments on this thread I guess it wasn't a car crash. One thing is certain:: she did better than Boris ( who should "man up").
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    ydoethur said:

    Andrew Neil trying to get Swinson to admit voters don't like her. I reckon she's holding her own at the minute.

    I am coming to the conclusion that in the event of a hung parliament Jo cannot support a minority Corbyn Government or a minority Corbyn/SNP government under any circumstances. I think she could support a Conservative minority government so long as Boris allows a second referendum. Is that likely?
    No.

    Anyway, if the Liberal Democrats outnumber the Euroscpetic Tories there seems a very real chance Swinson will be Prime Minister.
    This typo thing seems to be catching on.
    Are you a Lib Dme ?
  • Sandpit said:

    Cheating is probably the wrong word given that there is nothing in electoral law that states "thou shalt be interviewed by Andrew Neil," but I get the sentiment. Of course, there is nothing to say that Johnson wouldn't have been interviewed by Neil by now, and Corbyn wouldn't have kept well away, if Labour were doing really well with older voters and Johnson were desperate to win them back. Politicians will be politicians.

    I'm not sure what the BBC is supposed to do about this. They've no power to make the ister in their views of bias at the broadcaster, and thus firm up his support.

    The amazing thing is that Labour, LD, SNP and whoever else, isn’t running their social media 24/7 on Boris being a chicken, don’t have people following him everywhere he goes wearing chicken suits making utter arses of themselves in front of cameras etc etc.
    The typical sort of (younger) voter who gets all their news online isn't going to care that Johnson didn't turn up for a TV interview because they don't watch network TV; consequently, they didn't know that the interview was supposedly meant to be a thing, let alone feel dismayed that they didn't get to see it; and the vast majority of them probably haven't heard of Andrew Neil either.
    Agreed.

    Corbyn and Sturgeon were daft to do the Neil interviews. Johnson played them, and the BBC, beautifully. End of chapter. And another nail in the coffin of state broadcasting.

    The world has moved on. Politicians will wake up eventually.
    Not sure about that. None of this is game-changing stuff. Neil interviews have some impact but aren't massive, water-cooler events.

    Corbyn took a nasty but non-fatal hit by not apologising on antisemitism, and generally being at his stubborn and tetchy worst - a grumpy old man up past his bedtime. Sturgeon had tough questions but is a capable enough politician to deal well enough with it. Swinson probably did herself some favours, answering some doubters who feel she's not up to it. Johnson has had a bit of damage from chickening out, but he's frontrunner and probably correct that it's better to keep quiet and have a few people think you're a dullard than speak and remove all doubt.
    Johnson is not a dullard, but he is unquestionably a liar and Neil would have hammered that home relentlessly. Nevertheless a non-appearance is weak and will cost - not hugely, but something. Had he appeared, that would have cost too, but again not hugely. Most people already know he's a liar and have factored that in.

    On the whole, six of one and half a dozen of the other.
    Show me a politician that's not a liar.
  • Plaid shortening and Lab lengthening in Ynys Môn (Lab Maj = 5,259). New best prices:

    PC 6/4
    Con 2/1
    Lab 9/4
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    ydoethur said:

    Serious question. Discussions about Bolsover in previous threads. Do people think this is a seat a Labour would hold with a younger and more energetic candidate, or is it only Skinner’s personal popularity that has kept it red for so long?

    I think we can all agree Skinner is past it. His legendary level of attendance was well down last time I checked and he’s not been up to the usual standard of invective recently. But I was wondering what impact that was having.

    Wiki reckons he was born in 1932, which makes him 87. That’s an astonishing career, he’s been an MP since 1970.

    The question is, is his personal vote positive or negative?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andrew Neil trying to get Swinson to admit voters don't like her. I reckon she's holding her own at the minute.

    I am coming to the conclusion that in the event of a hung parliament Jo cannot support a minority Corbyn Government or a minority Corbyn/SNP government under any circumstances. I think she could support a Conservative minority government so long as Boris allows a second referendum. Is that likely?
    No.

    Anyway, if the Liberal Democrats outnumber the Euroscpetic Tories there seems a very real chance Swinson will be Prime Minister.
    This typo thing seems to be catching on.
    Are you a Lib Dme ?
    No, I’m just sutpid.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405



    Johnson is not a dullard, but he is unquestionably a liar and Neil would have hammered that home relentlessly. Nevertheless a non-appearance is weak and will cost - not hugely, but something. Had he appeared, that would have cost too, but again not hugely. Most people already know he's a liar and have factored that in.

    On the whole, six of one and half a dozen of the other.

    The downside risk is still there however so best to take the known hit and pray his lack of appearance doesn't make the news again.
  • Sajid Javid in North Devon today (BoZo visited last week). It does look as if the Tories are getting rather twitchy about this seat - I await the latest iteration of You Gov MRP with interest.

    https://devonlive.com/news/devon-news/chancellor-sajid-javid-devon-morning-3607596

    I don't know. Sajid Javid visiting isn't going to shift a lot of votes, to be honest.

    In terms of political visits by these second rank figures, I don't think parties plan them around where they feel there are big threats. It's probably more that they want Javid to talk about rural policing or something in an authentically rural place where he isn't massively likely to be lynched by angry natives.

    I know at least some organisers who basically tell the national party to sod off if the situation is really tight. These things are something of a faff to organise, distracting from other things, and the rewards are limited to the constituency campaign.
  • Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
  • Weather forecast for London on the 12th looking good: +7 and sunshine!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    @Sandpit

    Why do you read Guido? He got the Bum's Rush from here many years ago, and with good reason.

    I read everything from the Guardian to the Express, and hope that by being as well read as possible, eventually I will understand how the world works.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    HaroldO said:

    This has been an awful GE campaign, Johnson has no ideology and Corbyn has a surfeit.
    Neither side has any really practical people left in senior positions, the only reason the Tories are ahead because their plans are more like a slow puncture rather than Labours smashing everything up and starting again.

    Good summary.

    Imagine however if Labour also had to deliver Brexit.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    oooh Comres
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andrew Neil trying to get Swinson to admit voters don't like her. I reckon she's holding her own at the minute.

    I am coming to the conclusion that in the event of a hung parliament Jo cannot support a minority Corbyn Government or a minority Corbyn/SNP government under any circumstances. I think she could support a Conservative minority government so long as Boris allows a second referendum. Is that likely?
    No.

    Anyway, if the Liberal Democrats outnumber the Euroscpetic Tories there seems a very real chance Swinson will be Prime Minister.
    This typo thing seems to be catching on.
    Are you a Lib Dme ?
    No, I’m just sutpid.
    Don’t be so pudist.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    CON 42% (-1)
    LAB 32% (-1)
    LD 12% (-1)
    Other 15% (+4)
  • Weather forecast for London on the 12th looking good: +7 and sunshine!

    I wouldn't trust the weather forecast beyond 48 hours!
  • saddened said:

    kinabalu said:

    saddened said:

    I think Boris, will be average at best. But what I like about him, is his ability to drive his opponents to foot stamping , teary eyed, frothing at the mouth impotent rage. It's not fair, it's not fair. He has to do AN, he just HAS to!
    Delicious.

    You are rather petty in other words?
    Easily amused. But, there's a lot to be amused about. The screaming and screaming until they're sick, about not appearing on AN is hilarious.
    The desire to "own the libs" (i.e. to make self-righteous lefty outriders choke on their political impotence) is not a small part of the populist right's electoral appeal.

    It's precisely because they send our despised opponents into a childish frenzy that we put up with a lot of stuff that would be less palatable if they were boring, straight bats.

    Boris vs. May in a nutshell.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Hats off! You are on fire tonight!
  • How exactly does "gender neutrality" work in practice? Does it mean no-one is allowed to identify their gender except in the privacy of their own underwear? It would make the concept of female emancipation historically redundant. Who was the first female MP? Wash your mouth out with soap! On the upside, ladies' football could become yet another oppressed rural pursuit, with gender neutral saboteurs storming the field, puncturing the ball with their hatpins.
  • Who's getting sacked first: Corbyn, Swinson or Silva?
  • LD vote continues to drop, Remainers need to get serious and come back to Labour. We can still get a HP.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Previous quotes being hidden again - what's going on?!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,233
    edited December 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Guido doubling down, it turns out that “advance together” are standing five candidates, all in LD/Con contests, and are doing no campaigning except for high-quality anti-Tory leaflets that don’t mention their candidate, and all run by people who were active LDs two years ago. Their ‘party leader’ ran a website suggesting that she was trying to attract Tory to LD switchers.
    https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/advance-together-party-leader-objective-syphon-tory-votes-lib-dems/
    I imagine someone is going to report this to the police and Electoral Commission, hope there’s no emails anywhere, or maybe they were all with the press officer they suspended this week?

    There's a fine line here.

    If I stand in Jo Swinson's seat, and put out anti-Jo Swinson literature, that doesn't mention my name. Well, that's my business. I'm not associated with any political party so if I want to spend my money in that way, then that's fine.

    But if I was being bankrolled by the SNP, or what I was doing was at the behest of the SNP, then I would have crossed a line.

    My guess is that there will not be sufficient evidence that it was the latter.
  • Sandpit said:

    Cheating is probably the wrong word given that there is nothing in electoral law that states "thou shalt be interviewed by Andrew Neil," but I get the sentiment. Of course, there is nothing to say that Johnson wouldn't have been interviewed by Neil by now, and Corbyn wouldn't have kept well away, if Labour were doing really well with older voters and Johnson were desperate to win them back. Politicians will be politicians.

    I'm not sure what the BBC is supposed to do about this. They've no power to make the ister in their views of bias at the broadcaster, and thus firm up his support.

    The amazing thing is that Labour, LD, SNP and whoever else, isn’t running their social media 24/7 on Boris being a chicken, don’t have people following him everywhere he goes wearing chicken suits making utter arses of themselves in front of cameras etc etc.
    The typical sort of (younger) voter who gets all their news online isn't going to care that Johnson didn't turn up for a TV interview because they don't watch network TV; consequently, they didn't know that the interview was supposedly meant to be a thing, let alone feel dismayed that they didn't get to see it; and the vast majority of them probably haven't heard of Andrew Neil either.
    Agreed.

    Corbyn and Sturgeon were daft to do the Neil interviews. Johnson played them, and the BBC, beautifully. End of chapter. And another nail in the coffin of state broadcasting.

    The world has moved on. Politicians will wake up eventually.
    Not sure about that. None of this is game-changing stuff. Neil interviews have some impact but aren't massive, water-cooler events.

    Corbyn took a nasty but remove all doubt.
    Johnson is not a dullard, but he is unquestionably a liar and Neil would have hammered that home relentlessly. Nevertheless a non-appearance is weak and will cost - not hugely, but something. Had he appeared, that would have cost too, but again not hugely. Most people already know he's a liar and have factored that in.

    On the whole, six of one and half a dozen of the other.
    Show me a politician that's not a liar.
    It's facile and lazy to tar them all with the same brush. It also excuses the electorate's reluctance to punish the more blatantly and cynically dishonest amongst them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Ure pretty Rye this evening.
  • 4 polls so far this week ... and the only change is Tories +1 in Kantar.

    Corbyn had better hurry up with that red wave. Is there anything left to nationalise? McDonald's, maybe?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Ure pretty Rye this evening.
    I can’t stand Humber bragging.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Nice to have a poll, feel like we don’t get enough of them 1 week out from an election!
  • https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Final-Daily-Telegraph-GE2019-VI-Poll-04c12d19h.pdf
    8 point lead with all respondents likely to vote.
    I think also 18-24 intention is up again.
    I still live in hope.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited December 2019

    Hi all. Are we getting a YouGov MRP tonight?

    I did a YouGov with named constituency candidates on 25/11, MRP was 27/11. I did another YouGov with named candidates yesterday, so I'd guess tomorrow.

    It also had very specific questions about Corbyn, with an open ended question to offer your detailed opinion on his performance.
  • kinabalu said:

    They don't "allow" anything, party leaders choose which engagements they wish to partake in. Just because Corbyn and May agreed to Neil doesn't mean anyone else has to do so.

    Did they "allow" Cameron and Brown to avoid Neil in 2010?
    Did they "allow" Cameron and Miliband to avoid Neil in 2015?
    Did they "allow" Blair and Howard to avoid Neil in 2005?

    No need for anal and deflecting linguistic contortions. The point is that just the one leader has managed to avoid the toughest BBC interview. This is not a good thing. It's a bad thing. Doesn't invalidate the election or anything - perspective - but it is a poor show. You need to accept the obvious truth of this conclusion.
    No. I don't.

    One politician outsmarted the idiots opposing him. Well I don't want an idiot for PM so that's fine by me.

    Go cry to mummy. I'm sure whinging "it's so unfair" like some overentitled teenager will really impress Putin.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Hi all. Are we getting a YouGov MRP tonight?

    I did a YouGov with named constituency candidates on 25/11, MRP was 27/11. I did another YouGov with named candidates yesterday, so I'd guess tomorrow.

    It also had very specific questions about Corbyn, with an open ended question to offer your detailed opinion on his performance.
    I hope you said he's wonderful because he is delivering a Con majority!
  • Hi all. Are we getting a YouGov MRP tonight?

    I did a YouGov with named constituency candidates on 25/11, MRP was 27/11. I did another YouGov with named candidates yesterday, so I'd guess tomorrow.

    It also had very specific questions about Corbyn, with an open ended question to offer your detailed opinion on his performance.
    Good job I didn't do that one....not sure they would have enough space provided....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    Who's getting sacked first: Corbyn, Swinson or Silva?

    I reckon Silva. Has anyone ever mentioned you have an uncanny resemblance to Johnny Depp?
  • ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Hats off! You are on fire tonight!
    You're Avon a laugh!
  • LD vote continues to drop, Remainers need to get serious and come back to Labour. We can still get a HP.

    Depends on the constituency, doesn't it?

    You sure as hell don't want them doing that in Raab's constituency.
  • LD vote continues to drop, Remainers need to get serious and come back to Labour. We can still get a HP.

    Depends on the constituency, doesn't it?

    You sure as hell don't want them doing that in Raab's constituency.
    Yes, of course you're right
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    MaxPB said:

    That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?
    Independents but that can’t count for +5 so there is a wobble in the data
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Who's getting sacked first: Corbyn, Swinson or Silva?

    I reckon Silva. Has anyone ever mentioned you have an uncanny resemblance to Johnny Depp?
    That StuartDickson looks curiously familiar too!
  • MaxPB said:

    That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?
    At GE2017, others for GB (ie. exc. NI) was only 0.8%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Ure pretty Rye this evening.
    I can’t stand Humber bragging.
    I was just being a Tees.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    MaxPB said:

    That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?
    At GE2017, others for GB (ie. exc. NI) was only 0.8%.
    Never underestimate the electoral magnetism of the Yorkshire Party.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    edited December 2019

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Hats off! You are on fire tonight!
    You're Avon a laugh!
    I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,233
    In case anyone is wondering, that lady in East Devon is forecast to get 460% of the vote there.
  • So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    BluerBlue said:

    4 polls so far this week ... and the only change is Tories +1 in Kantar.

    Corbyn had better hurry up with that red wave. Is there anything left to nationalise? McDonald's, maybe?
    To be renamed Mc Donnells?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Hats off! You are on fire tonight!
    You're Avon a laugh!
    I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.
    We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    LD vote continues to drop, Remainers need to get serious and come back to Labour. We can still get a HP.


    Labour voters need to get behind the lib dems across the south of England and elsewhere and desert the nationalizing union promoting idiot so that maybe the Labour Party May one day be a relevant party seeking to do good for working people.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Tyne to stop this now guys.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    rcs1000 said:
    Brilliant,
    So either China takes over the world economy ... or disappears up its own @rse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited December 2019
    BluerBlue said:

    4 polls so far this week ... and the only change is Tories +1 in Kantar.

    Corbyn had better hurry up with that red wave. Is there anything left to nationalise? McDonald's, maybe?
    Corbynistas eating in McDonalds...I think not...thats for the plebs....Pret is the chain being brought under state control.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited December 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    In case anyone is wondering, that lady in East Devon is forecast to get 460% of the vote there.
    Is Lutfur Rahman doing postal vote operations on commission or something?
  • So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    Lol - there's no Labour surge in the polls, so you decided to create your own. Why not just pretend that Labour gets a landslide next Thursday and spend the next five years in blissful fantasy?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Tyne to stop this now guys.

    Orwell, it was fun while it lasted.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited December 2019

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    Not if it means corbyn, sorry. Vote lib dem to show both of them they are useless. But it’s stupid because con 60+ majority so let’s stop playing games and start to realize that corbyn is the tories massive helper.
  • rcs1000 said:

    In case anyone is wondering, that lady in East Devon is forecast to get 460% of the vote there.
    Wow, that's beats some of the wards in Bethnal Green!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    A bizarre amount for other party in that Savanta Comres poll.

    All the main parties down 1 .
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?
    Independents but that can’t count for +5 so there is a wobble in the data
    PC max 1% and nobody else could be more than 1% as they arent standing widely. 1% each for Change, Yorkshire, Liberal, SDP and the Loonies??!
  • BluerBlue said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    Lol - there's no Labour surge in the polls, so you decided to create your own. Why not just pretend that Labour gets a landslide next Thursday and spend the next five years in blissful fantasy?
    I only looked at what the data tables say. If people actually bother to vote, the gap reduces, which is as I would expect.
    I continue to hope for a Hung Parliament.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Tyne to stop this now guys.

    Orwell, it was fun while it lasted.
    Our race is Arun.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Hats off! You are on fire tonight!
    You're Avon a laugh!
    I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.
    We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.
    Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.
  • ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
This discussion has been closed.