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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Hats off! You are on fire tonight!
    You're Avon a laugh!
    I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.
    We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.
    Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.
    Sorry. This is now an Exe contest.
  • rcs1000 said:
    :smile: Capitalism - you can't beat it!
  • Who are the Others at 6? That seems extremely strange to be +5 !?
  • BluerBlue said:

    4 polls so far this week ... and the only change is Tories +1 in Kantar.

    Corbyn had better hurry up with that red wave. Is there anything left to nationalise? McDonald's, maybe?
    Renamed McDonnell's.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Hats off! You are on fire tonight!
    You're Avon a laugh!
    I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.
    We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.
    Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.
    Sorry. This is now an Exe contest.
    Tutt, Tutt.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    nichomar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems good politics/cheating in the Esher ground game
    Tories good politics/cheating in the Neill interview
    Labour good politics/cheating leaking out sensitive/secret documents on the NHS

    The Neil thing stands out. It relates to the fairness of election coverage by our national broadcaster. They've allowed one party leader to avoid the engagement which carries the most risk.
    They don't "allow" anything, party leaders choose which engagements they wish to partake in. Just because Corbyn and May agreed to Neil doesn't mean anyone else has to do so.

    Did they "allow" Cameron and Brown to avoid Neil in 2010?
    Did they "allow" Cameron and Miliband to avoid Neil in 2015?
    Did they "allow" Blair and Howard to avoid Neil in 2005?
    You know Johnson would be left a shivering jelly if he did the interview so you hide behind ‘he doesn’t he has to do it’ it’s pathetic but the great British public will not notice and all you are interested in is a Tory majority regardless how and on what basis it is gained. The new definition of one nation Tory makes me laugh as apparently a one nation Tory is reflective of the membership who think they occupy the center ground, well it’s a view.
    There's nothing new. Cameron didn't do it either and I respected him.

    Not a single leader I respect has ever agreed to be interviewed by Neil during an election campaign.
    You can dress it up any way you want but the fact remains that he was too scared to be interviewed by AN because it would expose his lies. It won't matter as far as the GE is concerned but it will matter afterwards

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Tyne to stop this now guys.

    Orwell, it was fun while it lasted.
    Wensum one complains it's time to stop.
  • SNP 4%. Tasty.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Another poll showing Labour's recovery has fizzled out...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    nichomar said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    Not if it means corbyn, sorry. Vote lib dem to show both of them they are useless. But it’s stupid because con 60+ majority so let’s stop playing games and start to realize that corbyn is the tories massive helper.
    What's your preferred outcome @nichomar ?
  • Who's getting sacked first: Corbyn, Swinson or Silva?

    I reckon Silva. Has anyone ever mentioned you have an uncanny resemblance to Johnny Depp?
    Not the worst person to have a resemblance to.

    I picked the avatar because people were throwing around the term "Libertarian Pirate Island" as an insult. I rather find the idea attractive not insulting so decided to roll with it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?
    Independents but that can’t count for +5 so there is a wobble in the data
    PC max 1% and nobody else could be more than 1% as they arent standing widely. 1% each for Change, Yorkshire, Liberal, SDP and the Loonies??!
    OMRLP surge!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited December 2019
    Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Hats off! You are on fire tonight!
    You're Avon a laugh!
    I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.
    We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.
    Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.
    Sorry. This is now an Exe contest.
    It Derwent stale Severn jokes ago
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    more like 3 weeks nearly.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?
    Independents but that can’t count for +5 so there is a wobble in the data
    PC max 1% and nobody else could be more than 1% as they arent standing widely. 1% each for Change, Yorkshire, Liberal, SDP and the Loonies??!
    OMRLP surge!
    Lord Buckethead a shoo in
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Who are the Others at 6? That seems extremely strange to be +5 !?
    That's others 1 others moving to CON soon 5 :smiley:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    spudgfsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Hats off! You are on fire tonight!
    You're Avon a laugh!
    I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.
    We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.
    Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.
    Sorry. This is now an Exe contest.
    It Derwent stale Severn jokes ago
    Really? Wye would you think that?
  • maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    I don't think I ever said it would be over. I have less hope than I did then in truth - but I still have hope :)
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    spudgfsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Hats off! You are on fire tonight!
    You're Avon a laugh!
    I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.
    We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.
    Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.
    Sorry. This is now an Exe contest.
    It Derwent stale Severn jokes ago
    Conwy stop this now please? You'll have us begging for Mersey.
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    Conservatives OM now 1.4 on Betfair
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    MaxPB said:

    Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.

    Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.

    The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    edited December 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Hats off! You are on fire tonight!
    You're Avon a laugh!
    I Kennet believe you just said that! I am getting my hat and coat.
    We’re having some fun Thames here tonight.
    Please Don’t abandon Yorkshire like that.
    Sorry. This is now an Exe contest.
    It Derwent stale Severn jokes ago
    (Last one) You're Afan a laugh.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    I don't think I ever said it would be over. I have less hope than I did then in truth - but I still have hope :)
    In the words of John Cleese - it's the hope that kills you.
  • ydoethur said:

    Tyne to stop this now guys.

    Orwell, it was fun while it lasted.
    Our race is Arun.
    Lord have Mersey!
  • MaxPB said:

    That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?
    The SDP are back, back, back...
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    more like 3 weeks nearly.
    In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.
  • River puns.

    Absolutely no nene.
  • maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    I don't think I ever said it would be over. I have less hope than I did then in truth - but I still have hope :)
    In the words of John Cleese - it's the hope that kills you.
    True. If Johnson gets a majority I'll be very sad - but such is life.
  • rcs1000 said:
    :smile: Capitalism - you can't beat it!
    Healthy free market there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    The odds for Ilford South are wrong generally. The idea Gapes has a personal vote is one of the funniest ideas in a while
  • SNP 4%. Tasty.

    It only seems to be down to higher turnout in Scotland for some reason rather than a genuine surge in SNP support. They're only on 40% in the subsample.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    more like 3 weeks nearly.
    In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.
    In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    River puns.

    Absolutely no nene.

    Look ouse talkin.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    Not if it means corbyn, sorry. Vote lib dem to show both of them they are useless. But it’s stupid because con 60+ majority so let’s stop playing games and start to realize that corbyn is the tories massive helper.
    What's your preferred outcome @nichomar ?
    Preferred would be a hung parliament brought on by a significant lib dem presence having taken 30 of Tory and 5/6 of labour it’s not going to happen. I’ve now moved to building a platform for the future which from my view requires a resurgent lib dem party and a Labour Party that has to face into the realities of life. Johnson will win, the tories will try to pretend it’s close but it isn’t there needs to be a sane center left political grouping in the UK and if labour fail to fulfill that role then it will be up to the lib dems.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    River puns.
    Absolutely no nene.

    Did anyone Esk you ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.

    Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.

    The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
    Yes, let's see if they fall back down to ~30% and if we can stay in the low to mid 40s.

    There's nothing about the current Labour campaign that screams anything other than "defend the castle" because the enemy is at the gates.

    I'm still waiting for their final freebie to be the Labour dividend, it's got to be on the way. Maybe something like £2000 cash per year per person to vote Labour.
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85

    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    more like 3 weeks nearly.
    In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.
    In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.
    Trump to win California?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    JamesP said:

    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    more like 3 weeks nearly.
    In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.
    In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.
    Trump to win California?
    Possible. Unlikely but possible.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    JamesP said:

    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    more like 3 weeks nearly.
    In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.
    In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.
    Trump to win California?
    I'd rather be dead in a ditch than see that happen.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Ure pretty Rye this evening.
    I can’t stand Humber bragging.
    I was just being a Tees.
    Shit pun, not your finest Stour.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    The movement in the polls appears to have stopped. If we simply take the 14 most recent nationwide polls currently listed on Wiki (i.e. those between the Kantar and ICM completed on 25 November and the most recent YouGov,) the mean value for the parties is as follows:

    Con 42.6%
    Lab 33.0%
    LD 13.1%

    Of the individual polling figures, 11 of the 14 Conservative values, 13 of the 14 Lib Dem values and all of the Labour values are within 2% of the mean.

    This doesn't imply, of course, that further movement is impossible. But it could well imply that those voters liable to be swayed have now been so, and that the campaign could be effectively over.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    more like 3 weeks nearly.
    In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.
    In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.
    Not in Chorley that can't. :smile:
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    edited December 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Another poll showing Labour's recovery has fizzled out...

    The even huger promises have gone against them this time, in 2017 they were claiming they could do big things but it was this side of toothpast manufacturers claims. This time they have to go bigger because of their own rhetoric, if the system was so awful and the rich to terrible they HAD to be brought into line so they HAD to go big or they were no better than the despised centrists and *spits* Tories.
    But at a certain point people just cannot believe that people with no track record of...well....anything, can pull off such a huge change so quickly. Mainly because they can't, their own experience of large bureaucracy being so limited they assume it must be easy because their own academic and philosophical readings tell them so. Change is easy, if you believe hard enough.
    These are people that ignore Holodomor and the Great leap forward in their own readings of history and point towards tractor figures.
  • BluerBlue said:

    saddened said:

    kinabalu said:

    saddened said:

    I think Boris, will be average at best. But what I like about him, is his ability to drive his opponents to foot stamping , teary eyed, frothing at the mouth impotent rage. It's not fair, it's not fair. He has to do AN, he just HAS to!
    Delicious.

    You are rather petty in other words?
    Easily amused. But, there's a lot to be amused about. The screaming and screaming until they're sick, about not appearing on AN is hilarious.
    The desire to "own the libs" (i.e. to make self-righteous lefty outriders choke on their political impotence) is not a small part of the populist right's electoral appeal.

    It's precisely because they send our despised opponents into a childish frenzy that we put up with a lot of stuff that would be less palatable if they were boring, straight bats.

    Boris vs. May in a nutshell.
    It's sad to see this kind of mindset of the US right infiltrate this country. It's a weirdly zero sum approach to politics (I can only be made happier by someone else being unhappier). As I think you note, ultimately it is people on the right who are being played by their political leaders - it's a distraction technique so you don't notice they're doing nothing to actually improve your life.
  • River puns.

    Absolutely no nene.

    Very Twee-d!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.

    Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.

    The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
    Yes, let's see if they fall back down to ~30% and if we can stay in the low to mid 40s.

    There's nothing about the current Labour campaign that screams anything other than "defend the castle" because the enemy is at the gates.

    I'm still waiting for their final freebie to be the Labour dividend, it's got to be on the way. Maybe something like £2000 cash per year per person to vote Labour.
    I'm still thinking it will be complete abolition of tuition fees, announced on Saturday evening. ;)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    I guess point is there are fringe candidates who people select when shown ballot paper.

    Whereas in previous poll no ballot paper so people were unaware of those candidates.

    Hence Others UP.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    more like 3 weeks nearly.
    In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.
    In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.
    Not in Chorley that can't. :smile:
    Trump brought over his electoral mind-control installations with him. Came over in a cargo plane shadowing Airforce One. They're being deployed from Stansted in secret convoys right now.
  • MikeL said:

    I guess point is there are fringe candidates who people select when shown ballot paper.

    Whereas in previous poll no ballot paper so people were unaware of those candidates.

    Hence Others UP.

    Seems a bit weird to do this with just a week to go!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Ure pretty Rye this evening.
    I can’t stand Humber bragging.
    I was just being a Tees.
    Shit pun, not your finest Stour.
    No need for such Ribbledry.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212

    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    more like 3 weeks nearly.
    In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.
    In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.
    Not in Chorley that can't. :smile:
    Is he marked as Independent or Labour on the ballot
  • Who's getting sacked first: Corbyn, Swinson or Silva?

    I reckon Silva. Has anyone ever mentioned you have an uncanny resemblance to Johnny Depp?
    Not the worst person to have a resemblance to!

    I picked the avatar because people kept using the phrase "Libertarian Pirate Island" as an insult. I find the idea attractive not insulting.
  • Who's getting sacked first: Corbyn, Swinson or Silva?

    I reckon Silva. Has anyone ever mentioned you have an uncanny resemblance to Johnny Depp?
    Not the worst person to have a resemblance to!

    I picked the avatar because people kept using the phrase "Libertarian Pirate Island" as an insult. I find the idea attractive not insulting.
    Are the Pirate Party libertarian?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited December 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.

    Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.

    The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
    Yes, let's see if they fall back down to ~30% and if we can stay in the low to mid 40s.

    There's nothing about the current Labour campaign that screams anything other than "defend the castle" because the enemy is at the gates.

    I'm still waiting for their final freebie to be the Labour dividend, it's got to be on the way. Maybe something like £2000 cash per year per person to vote Labour.
    I'm still thinking it will be complete abolition of tuition fees, announced on Saturday evening. ;)
    And that will finish them off for good.

    The more they promise now the sillier they seem. If it had been in the manifesto - fair enough - but this will just look like throwing shit at walls now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153


    I still live in hope.

    I have heard it springs eternal, so that's fine.
  • BluerBlue said:

    saddened said:

    kinabalu said:

    saddened said:

    I think Boris, will be average at best. But what I like about him, is his ability to drive his opponents to foot stamping , teary eyed, frothing at the mouth impotent rage. It's not fair, it's not fair. He has to do AN, he just HAS to!
    Delicious.

    You are rather petty in other words?
    Easily amused. But, there's a lot to be amused about. The screaming and screaming until they're sick, about not appearing on AN is hilarious.
    The desire to "own the libs" (i.e. to make self-righteous lefty outriders choke on their political impotence) is not a small part of the populist right's electoral appeal.

    It's precisely because they send our despised opponents into a childish frenzy that we put up with a lot of stuff that would be less palatable if they were boring, straight bats.

    Boris vs. May in a nutshell.
    It's sad to see this kind of mindset of the US right infiltrate this country. It's a weirdly zero sum approach to politics (I can only be made happier by someone else being unhappier). As I think you note, ultimately it is people on the right who are being played by their political leaders - it's a distraction technique so you don't notice they're doing nothing to actually improve your life.
    Climb down the rabbit hole of lefty Twitter and you'll see it's far from limited to the right. The left has been doing it long before us and better - winning acres of cultural ground while losing on economics - so for rightwingers it's still a great novelty to have leaders who can incense our more aggravating opponents the way they aggravate us. We haven't really had it in this country since Thatcher!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Guido doubling down, it turns out that “advance together” are standing five candidates, all in LD/Con contests, and are doing no campaigning except for high-quality anti-Tory leaflets that don’t mention their candidate, and all run by people who were active LDs two years ago. Their ‘party leader’ ran a website suggesting that she was trying to attract Tory to LD switchers.
    https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/advance-together-party-leader-objective-syphon-tory-votes-lib-dems/
    I imagine someone is going to report this to the police and Electoral Commission, hope there’s no emails anywhere, or maybe they were all with the press officer they suspended this week?

    There's a fine line here.

    If I stand in Jo Swinson's seat, and put out anti-Jo Swinson literature, that doesn't mention my name. Well, that's my business. I'm not associated with any political party so if I want to spend my money in that way, then that's fine.

    But if I was being bankrolled by the SNP, or what I was doing was at the behest of the SNP, then I would have crossed a line.

    My guess is that there will not be sufficient evidence that it was the latter.
    Um, hold on there a moment young Smithson, is that true? I think you are allowed to finance a policy objective (eg low taxation) but if it's party political (above a threshold?) then it has to be declared. This is Britain: there's always a form to fill out. Even if you are not a party member.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.

    Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.

    The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
    Yes, let's see if they fall back down to ~30% and if we can stay in the low to mid 40s.

    There's nothing about the current Labour campaign that screams anything other than "defend the castle" because the enemy is at the gates.

    I'm still waiting for their final freebie to be the Labour dividend, it's got to be on the way. Maybe something like £2000 cash per year per person to vote Labour.
    I'm still thinking it will be complete abolition of tuition fees, announced on Saturday evening. ;)
    And that will finish them off for good.

    The more they promise now the sillier they seem. If it had been in the manifesto - fair enough - but this will just look like throwing shit at walls now.
    Wouldn't even solve the issue, just kick the can down the road.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Pulpstar said:

    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    more like 3 weeks nearly.
    In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.
    In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.
    Not in Chorley that can't. :smile:
    Is he marked as Independent or Labour on the ballot
    The Speaker always stands as "The Speaker seeking re-election" or some very similar formula.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Ure pretty Rye this evening.
    I can’t stand Humber bragging.
    I was just being a Tees.
    Shit pun, not your finest Stour.
    No need for such Ribbledry.

    Wye oh wye?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?
    Independents but that can’t count for +5 so there is a wobble in the data
    PC max 1% and nobody else could be more than 1% as they arent standing widely. 1% each for Change, Yorkshire, Liberal, SDP and the Loonies??!
    OMRLP surge!
    Lord Buckethead a shoo in
    The real Lord Buckethead(ie Count Binface) or the fake one?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.

    Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.

    The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
    Yes, let's see if they fall back down to ~30% and if we can stay in the low to mid 40s.

    There's nothing about the current Labour campaign that screams anything other than "defend the castle" because the enemy is at the gates.

    I'm still waiting for their final freebie to be the Labour dividend, it's got to be on the way. Maybe something like £2000 cash per year per person to vote Labour.
    I'm still thinking it will be complete abolition of tuition fees, announced on Saturday evening. ;)
    Well it would also have to involve writing current debt off which they can only do by compensating those who bought the loan book. I doubt that many graduates believe it’s financially doable, the only thing they could offer is a revision to market rates and some movement on the payment triggers and write off times. Labour are desperate, they know they are in a hole but then losing as a true socialist was always more important than doing something for the less well off.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Ure pretty Rye this evening.
    I can’t stand Humber bragging.
    I was just being a Tees.
    Shit pun, not your finest Stour.
    No need for such Ribbledry.
    Wye oh wye?
    I’d Rother not go into that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    MikeL said:

    I guess point is there are fringe candidates who people select when shown ballot paper.

    Whereas in previous poll no ballot paper so people were unaware of those candidates.

    Hence Others UP.

    That lot was 1.2% in 2017
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    HaroldO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour have flatlined at 10 points off the lead.

    Yep. As expected all the puff has gone out of their climb.

    The question now is whether their gains start to unravel in the final days of the campaign and if it does will the pollsters pick it up?
    Yes, let's see if they fall back down to ~30% and if we can stay in the low to mid 40s.

    There's nothing about the current Labour campaign that screams anything other than "defend the castle" because the enemy is at the gates.

    I'm still waiting for their final freebie to be the Labour dividend, it's got to be on the way. Maybe something like £2000 cash per year per person to vote Labour.
    I'm still thinking it will be complete abolition of tuition fees, announced on Saturday evening. ;)
    And that will finish them off for good.

    The more they promise now the sillier they seem. If it had been in the manifesto - fair enough - but this will just look like throwing shit at walls now.
    Wouldn't even solve the issue, just kick the can down the road.
    Well there is that too.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Ure pretty Rye this evening.
    I can’t stand Humber bragging.
    I was just being a Tees.
    Shit pun, not your finest Stour.
    No need for such Ribbledry.
    Wye oh wye?
    I’d Rother not go into that.
    Chelt up!
  • Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    I guess point is there are fringe candidates who people select when shown ballot paper.

    Whereas in previous poll no ballot paper so people were unaware of those candidates.

    Hence Others UP.

    That lot was 1.2% in 2017
    0.8% in 2017!
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483

    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    more like 3 weeks nearly.
    In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.
    In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.
    Not in Chorley that can't. :smile:
    Nor in most of Northern Ireland.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    MaxPB said:

    That "Other" number looks awfully high. What is it, a ukip resurgence?
    They did the poll in East Devon and Beaconsfield?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Putting ComRes into the model hardly changes it.

    Tories two off an overall majority (technically but not in practice).
  • viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.
    They only really need 4 points. All to play for.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.
    True indeed. Those of us who do not wish to see a Tory majority must now put our faith in the pollsters having made a right horlicks of this election.

    It's not like they've been wrong before is it?
  • viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.
    True indeed. Those of us who do not wish to see a Tory majority must now put our faith in the pollsters having made a right horlicks of this election.

    It's not like they've been wrong before is it?
    I also think/hope this is the case :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Final-Daily-Telegraph-GE2019-VI-Poll-04c12d19h.pdf
    8 point lead with all respondents likely to vote.
    I think also 18-24 intention is up again.
    I still live in hope.

    I didn't spot you when we were canvassing there. But as Cove's go, Hope is one of the prettiest in our Totnes constituency.....

    https://www.visitsouthdevon.co.uk/things-to-do/hope-cove-beach-p180003
  • I still think there is the possibility of a shy Labour effect. Just a feeling.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    So just the 10pm megapoll to spoil the party?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Are we Don with the rother puns yet ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212

    Pulpstar said:

    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    I liked you more when you said the surge had to start in the next few days or you'd concede it was all over. c. 2 weeks ago I believe.
    more like 3 weeks nearly.
    In theory, with 75-80ish% of the votes cast on election day, a surge which happens overnight on the Wednesday would be all that is needed.
    In theory everyone who votes on the 12th could vote Conservative. In theory.
    Not in Chorley that can't. :smile:
    Is he marked as Independent or Labour on the ballot
    The Speaker always stands as "The Speaker seeking re-election" or some very similar formula.
    I think he'll get a huge vote
  • Do we seriously think MRP is just going to come out of nowhere?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    ComRes has Green 2 - not 3 as recorded on Wiki.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Pulpstar said:

    Are we Don with the rother puns yet ?

    Some Tyne ago.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Ure pretty Rye this evening.
    I can’t stand Humber bragging.
    I was just being a Tees.
    Shit pun, not your finest Stour.
    No need for such Ribbledry.
    Wye oh wye?
    I’d Rother not go into that.
    That'll be the Tay!
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    Do we seriously think MRP is just going to come out of nowhere?

    YouGov have said that they'll be doing another one but didn't commit to when. I personally expect it to be much nearer to the election (Monday or Tuesday)
  • viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.
    True indeed. Those of us who do not wish to see a Tory majority must now put our faith in the pollsters having made a right horlicks of this election.

    It's not like they've been wrong before is it?
    2015: Polls on average overstated Labour

    2017: Polls on average understated Labour

    2019: ?
  • MikeL said:

    ComRes has Green 2 - not 3 as recorded on Wiki.

    That's the wrong table linked to! (26-27 Nov)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.
    True indeed. Those of us who do not wish to see a Tory majority must now put our faith in the pollsters having made a right horlicks of this election.

    It's not like they've been wrong before is it?
    A balanced parliament is just about at the edge of MoE. So a bit of swing would be helpful.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    I still think there is the possibility of a shy Labour effect. Just a feeling.

    I'd say it's the other way around.
  • spudgfsh said:

    Do we seriously think MRP is just going to come out of nowhere?

    YouGov have said that they'll be doing another one but didn't commit to when. I personally expect it to be much nearer to the election (Monday or Tuesday)
    Perhaps they're holding it to see if they get an upset. They'll know any shrinkage of the Tory lead, or increasing of the Tory lead, will make better headlines.
  • OllyT said:

    nichomar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems good politics/cheating in the Esher ground game
    Tories good politics/cheating in the Neill interview
    Labour good politics/cheating leaking out sensitive/secret documents on the NHS

    The Neil thing stands out. It relates to the fairness of election coverage by our national broadcaster. They've allowed one party leader to avoid the engagement which carries the most risk.
    They don't "allow" anything, party leaders choose which engagements they wish to partake in. Just because Corbyn and May agreed to Neil doesn't mean anyone else has to do so.

    Did they "allow" Cameron and Brown to avoid Neil in 2010?
    Did they "allow" Cameron and Miliband to avoid Neil in 2015?
    Did they "allow" Blair and Howard to avoid Neil in 2005?
    You know Johnson would be left a shivering jelly if he did the interview so you hide behind ‘he doesn’t he has to do it’ it’s pathetic but the great British public will not notice and all you are interested in is a Tory majority regardless how and on what basis it is gained. The new definition of one nation Tory makes me laugh as apparently a one nation Tory is reflective of the membership who think they occupy the center ground, well it’s a view.
    There's nothing new. Cameron didn't do it either and I respected him.

    Not a single leader I respect has ever agreed to be interviewed by Neil during an election campaign.
    You can dress it up any way you want but the fact remains that he was too scared to be interviewed by AN because it would expose his lies. It won't matter as far as the GE is concerned but it will matter afterwards

    How much did it matter for Cameron and Blair?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Ure pretty Rye this evening.
    I can’t stand Humber bragging.
    I was just being a Tees.
    Shit pun, not your finest Stour.
    No need for such Ribbledry.
    Wye oh wye?
    I’d Rother not go into that.
    That'll be the Tay!
    No Nidd to be so dismissive.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38.
    If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it! :)

    I doubt if that margin would stop Johnson. More likely a majority of 30.
    That's at the moment. A bit of tactical voting, a few more people come over to the Labour side, off we go. I live in hope :)
    With great delicacy, I need to point out that it is difficult to cross an eight point gap in the last days.
    True indeed. Those of us who do not wish to see a Tory majority must now put our faith in the pollsters having made a right horlicks of this election.

    It's not like they've been wrong before is it?
    2015: Polls on average overstated Labour

    2017: Polls on average understated Labour

    2019: ?
    The Goldilocks election?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    I still think there is the possibility of a shy Labour effect. Just a feeling.

    Sticking with your 40-38 prediction?
  • Brom said:

    I still think there is the possibility of a shy Labour effect. Just a feeling.

    Sticking with your 40-38 prediction?
    I am for now yes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Ure pretty Rye this evening.
    I can’t stand Humber bragging.
    I was just being a Tees.
    Shit pun, not your finest Stour.
    No need for such Ribbledry.
    Wye oh wye?
    I’d Rother not go into that.
    That'll be the Tay!
    Dee-sist!!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Libdems drifting in York Outer, now 7/1.

    Their prize is ouseing away.
    Ure pretty Rye this evening.
    I can’t stand Humber bragging.
    I was just being a Tees.
    Shit pun, not your finest Stour.
    No need for such Ribbledry.
    Wye oh wye?
    I’d Rother not go into that.
    That'll be the Tay!
    All this punning requires some Trentchent criticism.
This discussion has been closed.