Putting ComRes into the model hardly changes it. Tories two off an overall majority (technically but not in practice).
I'm clinging to 322 being the actual zero line for the Tories: 650 - 1 Speaker - 7 Sinn Fein = 642. 642/ 2 = 321. Then 2 Tory MPs become deputy speakers, so zero line rises +2 to 323. But 1 Labour MP must become the final deputy speaker, so 323-1 = 322.
Therefore 323 = majority of 2 over all other voting MPs in the House.
Now, I'm not brilliant at maths, but I think this is right!
Johnson has had a couple of good days with a largely positive media , I was expecting the Tories to rise in the polls so I’m a bit surprised by the static picture shown in the Savanta Comres poll.
So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38. If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!
The movement in the polls appears to have stopped. If we simply take the 14 most recent nationwide polls currently listed on Wiki (i.e. those between the Kantar and ICM completed on 25 November and the most recent YouGov,) the mean value for the parties is as follows:
Con 42.6% Lab 33.0% LD 13.1%
Of the individual polling figures, 11 of the 14 Conservative values, 13 of the 14 Lib Dem values and all of the Labour values are within 2% of the mean.
This doesn't imply, of course, that further movement is impossible. But it could well imply that those voters liable to be swayed have now been so, and that the campaign could be effectively over.
Just realised that 43/33/13 is *exactly* the set of values shown in tonight's ComRes, if disregarding the reallocation of 1% from each party to the mysteriously buoyant Plaid/Speaker/Grieve/Ukip/SDP/Loony faction. That's quite satisfying.
I still think there is the possibility of a shy Labour effect. Just a feeling.
You mean the self-effacing anti-semites who paint swastikas on Conservatives placards in the middle of the night? I'd like to think there aren't enough of them to swing an election, but maybe you know better?
So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38. If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!
The movement in the polls appears to have stopped. If we simply take the 14 most recent nationwide polls currently listed on Wiki (i.e. those between the Kantar and ICM completed on 25 November and the most recent YouGov,) the mean value for the parties is as follows:
Con 42.6% Lab 33.0% LD 13.1%
Of the individual polling figures, 11 of the 14 Conservative values, 13 of the 14 Lib Dem values and all of the Labour values are within 2% of the mean.
This doesn't imply, of course, that further movement is impossible. But it could well imply that those voters liable to be swayed have now been so, and that the campaign could be effectively over.
Just realised that 43/33/13 is *exactly* the set of values shown in tonight's ComRes, if disregarding the reallocation of 1% from each party to the mysteriously buoyant Plaid/Speaker/Grieve/Ukip/SDP/Loony faction. That's quite satisfying.
If there is any movement now it won’t be till the last 4 or 5 days and bit of shyness on day, there won’t be any in weekend polls, much like 92. Remember the Tories can drop in the polls even with more people deciding to vote for them.
Putting ComRes into the model hardly changes it. Tories two off an overall majority (technically but not in practice).
I'm clinging to 322 being the actual zero line for the Tories: 650 - 1 Speaker - 7 Sinn Fein = 642. 642/ 2 = 321. Then 2 Tory MPs become deputy speakers, so zero line rises +2 to 323. But 1 Labour MP must become the final deputy speaker, so 323-1 = 322.
Therefore 323 = majority of 2 over all other voting MPs in the House.
Now, I'm not brilliant at maths, but I think this is right!
Will Labours red wall crumble? It's A vs B Been trawling through social media pages, of candidates from Scunthrope, Wrexham , Lincoln etc. The major conflict seems to be between Austerity vs Brexit Strong views about Brexit and how the local MPs voted against it, so labelled traitors. Against NHS privatisation and the decline in public services. Can't predict final outcome, but yes, the Labour strongholds have been shaken. It's how many seats they lose, 20?40? Don't know
This campaign has been going on long enough. The election really should be the day after tomorrow. Why is it so long?
We potentially have to put up with the next government for a full five years. It’s probably a good idea to see who most outlives their welcome before election day...
This campaign has been going on long enough. The election really should be the day after tomorrow. Why is it so long?
I think FTPA makes them drag on longer than they used to?
3-4 weeks is ample time for an election campaign IMO.
The period between the dissolution of Parliament in early November and what is beginning to look like the levelling off in the polls in late November was about three weeks.
Johnson has had a couple of good days with a largely positive media , I was expecting the Tories to rise in the polls so I’m a bit surprised by the static picture shown in the Savanta Comres poll.
Yesterday and today have been very good for Boris and will not show up in these polls
I expect his personal ratings will rise in the next few polls
I also think most have made their mind up and of course Boris's last three days are at the time postal votes are going in
We actually had a young Corbynista canvas us today and when I said I could not vote for a marxist, anti west, anti semite he just seemed as if he had heard it door after door (an air of acceptance)
Have the Tories selected the right candidates in the North? For example, the guy in Lincoln is not much liked and considered a pompous pk.Besides being involved in expenses fiddle and even hired his wife to work. There is a newbe selected in Scunthorpe, who has mounted a decent, brexit based campaign. However prior to this, she was hardly known in the area and not been involved in any major or even minor public work. She has to remind the mases that she is local born and bred!! Sarah Atherton from Wrexham, seems a little tired and washout, with hardly any major campaigning or social media foot print. Tories seem to have put all their eggs in one Brexit basket
Tories = Liverpool SNP = Leicester Labour = Everton Lib Dems = Altrincham Stanley
I suspect Labour would take that. Still in the Premiership...for now at least. I think the SNP would prefer to be Celtic, or at the very least Rangers. Accrington Stanley have been on the up for a number of seasons now too.
Tories = Liverpool SNP = Leicester Labour = Everton Lib Dems = Altrincham Stanley
I suspect Labour would take that. Still in the Premiership...for now at least. I think the SNP would prefer to be Celtic, or at the very least Rangers.
Because second in the English Premiership is shit compared to being top of the Scottish Premiership. Sounds about right......
Johnson has had a couple of good days with a largely positive media , I was expecting the Tories to rise in the polls so I’m a bit surprised by the static picture shown in the Savanta Comres poll.
Yesterday and today have been very good for Boris and will not show up in these polls
I expect his personal ratings will rise in the next few polls
I also think most have made their mind up and of course Boris's last three days are at the time postal votes are going in
We actually had a young Corbynista canvas us today and when I said I could not vote for a marxist, anti west, anti semite he just seemed as if he had heard it door after door (an air of acceptance)
Poor sod! You might at least have added that nor would you vote for a social democratic, pro-West, pro-Israeli Leader of his Party either. It would have been equally true, but less hurtful.
Johnson has had a couple of good days with a largely positive media , I was expecting the Tories to rise in the polls so I’m a bit surprised by the static picture shown in the Savanta Comres poll.
Yesterday and today have been very good for Boris and will not show up in these polls
I expect his personal ratings will rise in the next few polls
I also think most have made their mind up and of course Boris's last three days are at the time postal votes are going in
We actually had a young Corbynista canvas us today and when I said I could not vote for a marxist, anti west, anti semite he just seemed as if he had heard it door after door (an air of acceptance)
Poor sod! You might at least have added that nor would you vote for a social democratic, pro-West, pro-Israeli Leader of his Party either. It would have been equally true, but less hurtful.
He took it well to be fair. Looked battle weary to be honest
BBC Scotland are doing another 'comedy character interviews the leaders' programme, as in 2017. Willie Rennie is highly effective on these, with quite a surreal sense of humour.
Tories = Liverpool SNP = Leicester Labour = Everton Lib Dems = Altrincham Stanley
I suspect Labour would take that. Still in the Premiership...for now at least. I think the SNP would prefer to be Celtic, or at the very least Rangers.
Because second in the English Premiership is shit compared to being top of the Scottish Premiership. Sounds about right......
My analysis was purely based on Nationalist criteria. If the SNP want to leave the UK, they won't want to be lumbered with being in an English Football league. On a similar note I have found another flaw in Thommo's theory. Don't scousers detest Boris after one of his essays? Phil Thompson should have known that.
PB provides a confluence between political discourse and poor punning.
Things not looking good for the red Team with a week to go.
We'll know for certain Aire long. Once the exit poll has Calder Tory majority.
Then the recriminations will start: Wye did we lose? Dee minus for the campaign. Forth defeat in a row.
Labour are in the shallows. My source says Corbyn out of his depth.
It's plain. Tories going to gorge on Labour seats. A rapids rise in the marginals becomes a flood. A channel to a big majority. There'll be no run-off. Take it to the bank. Dam, the left cries.
PB provides a confluence between political discourse and poor punning.
Things not looking good for the red Team with a week to go.
We'll know for certain Aire long. Once the exit poll has Calder Tory majority.
Then the recriminations will start: Wye did we lose? Dee minus for the campaign. Forth defeat in a row.
Labour are in the shallows. My source says Corbyn out of his depth.
It's plain. Tories going to gorge on Labour seats. A rapids rise in the marginals becomes a flood. A channel to a big majority. There'll be no run-off. Take it to the bank. Dam, the left cries.
And with that, off to the riverbed......
Do you serve as the Tory source for your Labour source, when called for?
BBC Scotland are doing another 'comedy character interviews the leaders' programme, as in 2017. Willie Rennie is highly effective on these, with quite a surreal sense of humour.
Richard Leonard, not so much.
If Wee Jimmy Krankie is asking the questions - who is answering for the SNP?
Guido doubling down, it turns out that “advance together” are standing five candidates, all in LD/Con contests, and are doing no campaigning except for high-quality anti-Tory leaflets that don’t mention their candidate, and all run by people who were active LDs two years ago. Their ‘party leader’ ran a website suggesting that she was trying to attract Tory to LD switchers. https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/advance-together-party-leader-objective-syphon-tory-votes-lib-dems/ I imagine someone is going to report this to the police and Electoral Commission, hope there’s no emails anywhere, or maybe they were all with the press officer they suspended this week?
As usual, of course, Dipso Staines is talking out of his rear end. They are standing in Mid Sussex where Labour were miles ahead of the LDs in 2017 and are ahead of the LDs in the betting market. But the truth has always been an inconvenience for Dipso.
Johnson has had a couple of good days with a largely positive media , I was expecting the Tories to rise in the polls so I’m a bit surprised by the static picture shown in the Savanta Comres poll.
The smell of his trying to take advantage of the London Bridge attack balances the achievement of not completely cocking up the Nato meeting.
So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38. If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!
You've lost. And BADLY.
Get a sane, non-Marxist, non-Jew-hating leader, and you will win, EASILY.
Until it is known that the pollsters have not underestimated Labour again then it will not be over, but with a week to go and a mostly steady lead above that of last time now, it's on the brink for Labour.
No bread? Eat Brexit Spent hours trawling through social posts of candidates up North. Few recurring themes are as follows- Brexit, Austerity, NHS, Cuts, Corbyn is scum Significant percentages want Brexit done and are miffed about their local MPs voting against the bill. Very interesting, people are so engrossed in brexit, they forget basic bread and butter issues.
Johnson has had a couple of good days with a largely positive media , I was expecting the Tories to rise in the polls so I’m a bit surprised by the static picture shown in the Savanta Comres poll.
The smell of his trying to take advantage of the London Bridge attack balances the achievement of not completely cocking up the Nato meeting.
Another 10 points for Boris by humiliating Trump? Or is that all offset by Boris humiliating Trump with an arch-Eurofederalist like Macron?
So ComRes with all likely to vote + weighted is 30/38. If people actually bother to come out to vote, we can definitely stop Boris Johnson. Let's do it!
You've lost. And BADLY.
Get a sane, non-Marxist, non-Jew-hating leader, and you will win, EASILY.
Don't count your chickens quite yet...it is far from official that he will crash and burn like a Nish Kumar stand-up gig.
At least if he does, he can stop having to pretend to do things like watch the Queen's speech at Christmas.
Comments
Therefore 323 = majority of 2 over all other voting MPs in the House.
Now, I'm not brilliant at maths, but I think this is right!
Remember the Tories can drop in the polls even with more people deciding to vote for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/04/sinn-fein-stand-aside-remain-candidates-three-constituencies-general-election
3-4 weeks is ample time for an election campaign IMO.
Been trawling through social media pages, of candidates from Scunthrope, Wrexham , Lincoln etc. The major conflict seems to be between Austerity vs Brexit
Strong views about Brexit and how the local MPs voted against it, so labelled traitors. Against NHS privatisation and the decline in public services.
Can't predict final outcome, but yes, the Labour strongholds have been shaken. It's how many seats they lose, 20?40? Don't know
.
SNP = Leicester
Labour = Everton
Lib Dems = Altrincham Stanley
Footballs not you bag is it Thommo?
*ba doom tish*
47-28-10.....
I expect his personal ratings will rise in the next few polls
I also think most have made their mind up and of course Boris's last three days are at the time postal votes are going in
We actually had a young Corbynista canvas us today and when I said I could not vote for a marxist, anti west, anti semite he just seemed as if he had heard it door after door (an air of acceptance)
For example, the guy in Lincoln is not much liked and considered a pompous pk.Besides being involved in expenses fiddle and even hired his wife to work.
There is a newbe selected in Scunthorpe, who has mounted a decent, brexit based campaign. However prior to this, she was hardly known in the area and not been involved in any major or even minor public work. She has to remind the mases that she is local born and bred!!
Sarah Atherton from Wrexham, seems a little tired and washout, with hardly any major campaigning or social media foot print.
Tories seem to have put all their eggs in one Brexit basket
I think the SNP would prefer to be Celtic, or at the very least Rangers. Accrington Stanley have been on the up for a number of seasons now too.
You should put a Sok in it.
Perhaps TV channels might be disappointed.
Things not looking good for the red Team with a week to go.
We'll know for certain Aire long. Once the exit poll has Calder Tory majority.
Then the recriminations will start: Wye did we lose? Dee minus for the campaign. Forth defeat in a row.
I will watch Boris v Corbyn on friday, however
Richard Leonard, not so much.
Or maybe we will see a poll with 15% giving up on Corbyn? Maybe a week tomorrow?
On a similar note I have found another flaw in Thommo's theory. Don't scousers detest Boris after one of his essays? Phil Thompson should have known that.
It's plain. Tories going to gorge on Labour seats. A rapids rise in the marginals becomes a flood. A channel to a big majority. There'll be no run-off. Take it to the bank. Dam, the left cries.
And with that, off to the riverbed......
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1202353947266211846
However, until the votes are counted I am not celebrating a majority Boris government
Polls look very settled
Boris has had a good week, Corbyn not so
But still I am not calling it a majority government
Have a good nights rest
Good night folks
Get a sane, non-Marxist, non-Jew-hating leader, and you will win, EASILY.
RIP.
8/43.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/momentum-jeremy-corbyn-general-election-jon-lansman-labour-a9232271.html
Everyone seems to have ignored what YouGov actually said!
I guess there's probably a fair degree of none-of-the-above contrariness going on too.
It did not have to be this way but labour elected Corbyn !!!!
Spent hours trawling through social posts of candidates up North. Few recurring themes are as follows- Brexit, Austerity, NHS, Cuts, Corbyn is scum
Significant percentages want Brexit done and are miffed about their local MPs voting against the bill. Very interesting, people are so engrossed in brexit, they forget basic bread and butter issues.
They'd be mad to give up when there is every likelihood 2024 will be like 1997 when Labour could have won with anyone leading them.
At least if he does, he can stop having to pretend to do things like watch the Queen's speech at Christmas.