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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab’s rock solid safe seat now a key GE2019 battlegro

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:



    Ironically a huge Tory win could be doubly-good for the sanity of both parties.

    In Labour it would force Labour to look into its soul and realise what has gone wrong.
    In the Conservatives it would permit the PM to have some breathing space and not permit the ERG or other extreme wings to be able to veto policies.

    Boris sacked the Tory one Nation wing and conspired with ERG to unseat May and win No10. Chips will be cashed. Your going to be disappointed.
    No he didn't. He sacked extreme Europhile rebels. That has nothing to do with One Nation.

    What makes you define One Nation as Phil Hammond?
    Clarke, Rudd are together more One Nation than the remaining Conservative party. One Nation Conservatism is dead.

  • The favourability then (i.e. when the poll said a 16 point lead) was -9 to -38, what sort of lead does that suggest?

    I no longer have the spreadsheet in front of me, sorry. But probably something like 11pp off the top of my head. Mori's net leader favorability is a much better predictor than their headline poll numbers. Net favorability for Johnson-Corbyn is much less advantageous for the Tories than for Thatcher-Foot, but their headline poll numbers suggest a 1983 style lead. Leader favorability isn't in landslide territory this time around because (a) Corbyn has improved over the campaign and (b) people don't like Johnson either.
    Corbyn's gone from -39 at the start of the campaign to -38 now. That's hardly a rounding error let alone improving!
    That's because its partisan bullshit. it works both ways.
    Corbyn was -60 at the end of October (. I am not trying to be partisan, I am trying to predict the result. I am a Labour supporter but any analysis as opposed to opinions/bantz is meant to be unbiased. I actually looked at the net favorability issue expecting to find it pointing to bigger leads, not leads in line with the polling average and with betting markets. Feel free to ignore it if you think it's bullshit.
    Are you sure that is the same polling company.
    Yes.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710

    Labour's great hope, Trump, would dish Boris's campaign has failed to materalise with the headline being Trump falls out with Trudeau, cancels news conference, and flies home

    While Boris gets to look all Prime Ministerial with his closing speech and delivers a withering PPB at the end on Corbyn

    Yes - ironically NATO / Trump appears to have helped Boris - because it's pushed the GE out of the news for 3 days.

    That, following the terrorist incident last Friday, means there has now been 6 days with GE out of the news.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    Well, Corbyn is no longer the exciting new thing, is he?

    And it's not summer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:



    Ironically a huge Tory win could be doubly-good for the sanity of both parties.

    In Labour it would force Labour to look into its soul and realise what has gone wrong.
    In the Conservatives it would permit the PM to have some breathing space and not permit the ERG or other extreme wings to be able to veto policies.

    Boris sacked the Tory one Nation wing and conspired with ERG to unseat May and win No10. Chips will be cashed. Your going to be disappointed.
    No he didn't. He sacked extreme Europhile rebels. That has nothing to do with One Nation.

    What makes you define One Nation as Phil Hammond?
    Clarke, Rudd are together more One Nation than the remaining Conservative party. One Nation Conservatism is dead.
    Economically Boris is left of Cameron and Osborne, he is only not One Nation if you define One Nation as pro EU
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    GIN1138 said:

    Just to get everybody in the mood...BBC Exit polls 1992-2017..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myntJD4EXaQ

    Everyone loves a Big Bong but that one has multiple Big Bongs. :D
    2005 was on the money !
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Jonathan said:

    @Jonathan - that's my view. Johnson has made his choice. After forcing several ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party for not following the ERG line it's not credible to think that he can change tack now.

    His ideological purge was brutal. People somehow overlook it. There is a denial cult forming around Boris just as potent as the Corbyn cult. Like a soap opera battered spouse, they know Boris is a bad news but hope he will come good one day despite the black eye.
    It makes you long for a slap down like Jeremy Thorpe's to MacMillan;
    "Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life."
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

    Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

    Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

    Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

    I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).
    This campaign has at least killed the crap spun here by certain PB regulars that Bozo is somehow an Ace campaigner. In reality he is hiding behind the sofa and counting the days to next Thursday, while his party is barely fighting a campaign at all.
    He is a smart campaigner. He agreed to the very first debate with Corbyn and took Corbyn on head to head immediately thus neutering any charges of hiding for the rest of the country that don't want to watch 17 gazillion debates.
    That’s just partisan BS.

    If he were any good, he’d do the Neil interview confident that he could come away with at worst a draw, point to the comparison with Corbyn, and coast to victory on the 12th.

    In reality he is acting like a frightened child and from his hiding place praying that he will win by default.
    Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

    Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't
    I am a voter. I care.
    Yes, but maybe you care because of the type of questions that Neil would level at him, i.e. questions designed to embarrass rather than to enlighten?
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited December 2019

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

    Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

    Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

    Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

    I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).
    This campaign has at least killed the crap spun here by certain PB regulars that Bozo is somehow an Ace campaigner. In reality he is hiding behind the sofa and counting the days to next Thursday, while his party is barely fighting a campaign at all.
    He is a smart campaigner. He agreed to the very first debate with Corbyn and took Corbyn on head to head immediately thus neutering any charges of hiding for the rest of the country that don't want to watch 17 gazillion debates.
    That’s just partisan BS.

    If he were any good, he’d do the Neil interview confident that he could come away with at worst a draw, point to the comparison with Corbyn, and coast to victory on the 12th.

    In reality he is acting like a frightened child and from his hiding place praying that he will win by default.
    Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

    Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't
    I am a voter. I care.
    You'd never vote for him anyway and just want a last chance for something to go wrong. No thanks!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019
    alb1on said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    I just don't see Raab following the Portillo / Balls post politics career path.

    I'm not sure Raab is famous enough for people to care. Portillo in particular was all over the media back in the day and Balls was at least well-known. I'm not sure the voter on the Clapham omnibus could pick out Raab in a police line-up.
    Skinner is the more likely big name casualty anyway, followed by Swinson
    I have always admired optimism, but there comes a point when it becomes a substitute for sanity. If you really believe that rather than just playing the political game you can get 11/4 for the SNP beating Swinson. Skinner is not a big name to the public.
    I suspect more of the public recognise Skinner than Raab or even Swinson
  • Got our first LD leaflet today - mentions "Corbyn's Labour" (though I'm not sure Wes would take too kindly to that!) but no mention of the Tory candidate!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:



    Ironically a huge Tory win could be doubly-good for the sanity of both parties.

    In Labour it would force Labour to look into its soul and realise what has gone wrong.
    In the Conservatives it would permit the PM to have some breathing space and not permit the ERG or other extreme wings to be able to veto policies.

    Boris sacked the Tory one Nation wing and conspired with ERG to unseat May and win No10. Chips will be cashed. Your going to be disappointed.
    No he didn't. He sacked extreme Europhile rebels. That has nothing to do with One Nation.

    What makes you define One Nation as Phil Hammond?
    Clarke, Rudd are together more One Nation than the remaining Conservative party. One Nation Conservatism is dead.
    Economically Boris is left of Cameron and Osborne, he is only not One Nation if you define One Nation as pro EU
    Boris is not a One Nation Conservative, he is a One Johnson Conservative. A man with an ego so large he cannot live in a party with his own brother, let alone represent the whole country. We are all but pawns in his personal path to glory or infamy.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    Re: the approval ratings. While it doesn't look great for Labour I would caution that the surge in Corbyn's approval came much later than the surge in Labour VI in 2017; In fact it started about now. The next set of approval figures should be the ones to watch.
  • malcolmg said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Silly sloganeering. If you have finite assets, to allocate more to those with less you necessarily have to take from those with more. There's local pockets across which that is not necessarily true, and special rules might temporarily apply to pretendy assets like money, but overall it cannot not be the case.

    They seem to manage a more balanced society in the Nordic countries. Their rich people appear to be happy being just wealthy rather than wanting to have it all and have everybody else poor. The UK is a sh**hole.
    I have some experience of Scandinavia. It is rather more nuanced than that. There is a much stronger racist anti-foreigner sentiment there, for instance. I'm always struck by the obsession with migrants in the various Scandi-noir series.
    I’d like to see some objective academic studies before I started to believe that Scandinavians have “much stronger racist anti-foreigner sentiment” than, for example, English people. My experience, as a Scandinavian, is quite the opposite. We are very kind and tolerant towards non-Scandinavians.

    The one area where the English are much better is day-to-day friendliness, eg small talk and inquisitiveness with foreigners. Scandinavians are dreadful at that. But they are also shite at talking with their next door neighbours, so nothing to do with the foreigners per se.
    Stuart, it's anecdotal so far as I'm concerned. But, historically, there were quite strong fascist movements in most of the Scandi countries. Obviously social democracy has prevailed but there is a vein of that kind of sentiment there. BTW have Scandi friends and acquaintances so by no means down on those countries at all - quite the oppo.

    Historically, there were quite strong fascist movements in England too. Which stretched right to the top of society. The very top.
  • Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

    Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

    Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

    Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

    I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).
    This campaign has at least killed the crap spun here by certain PB regulars that Bozo is somehow an Ace campaigner. In reality he is hiding behind the sofa and counting the days to next Thursday, while his party is barely fighting a campaign at all.
    He is a smart campaigner. He agreed to the very first debate with Corbyn and took Corbyn on head to head immediately thus neutering any charges of hiding for the rest of the country that don't want to watch 17 gazillion debates.
    That’s just partisan BS.

    If he were any good, he’d do the Neil interview confident that he could come away with at worst a draw, point to the comparison with Corbyn, and coast to victory on the 12th.

    In reality he is acting like a frightened child and from his hiding place praying that he will win by default.
    Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

    Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't
    I am a voter. I care.
    Yes, but maybe you care because of the type of questions that Neil would level at him, i.e. questions designed to embarrass rather than to enlighten?
    Not really, I just think he should be subjected to proper scrutiny like the other party leaders. If you Tories had more faith in him you'd be happy for him to do it. You obviously don't, yet you think he is fit to run the country. It's absurd.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    HYUFD said:

    alb1on said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    I just don't see Raab following the Portillo / Balls post politics career path.

    I'm not sure Raab is famous enough for people to care. Portillo in particular was all over the media back in the day and Balls was at least well-known. I'm not sure the voter on the Clapham omnibus could pick out Raab in a police line-up.
    Skinner is the more likely big name casualty anyway, followed by Swinson
    I have always admired optimism, but there comes a point when it becomes a substitute for sanity. If you really believe that rather than just playing the political game you can get 11/4 for the SNP beating Swinson. Skinner is not a big name to the public.
    I suspect more of the public recognise Skinner than Raab or even Swinson
    Then I truly do doubt your sanity. After an election campaign in which he has been invisible I doubt that is true even of Labour members.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:



    Ironically a huge Tory win could be doubly-good for the sanity of both parties.

    In Labour it would force Labour to look into its soul and realise what has gone wrong.
    In the Conservatives it would permit the PM to have some breathing space and not permit the ERG or other extreme wings to be able to veto policies.

    Boris sacked the Tory one Nation wing and conspired with ERG to unseat May and win No10. Chips will be cashed. Your going to be disappointed.
    No he didn't. He sacked extreme Europhile rebels. That has nothing to do with One Nation.

    What makes you define One Nation as Phil Hammond?
    Clarke, Rudd are together more One Nation than the remaining Conservative party. One Nation Conservatism is dead.
    One Nation Conservativism is alive and well, we have a One Nation Conservative Prime Minister.

    Phil Hammond was never One Nation. Don't confuse One Nation with Europhile, they're not the same thing.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    HYUFD said:

    alb1on said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    I just don't see Raab following the Portillo / Balls post politics career path.

    I'm not sure Raab is famous enough for people to care. Portillo in particular was all over the media back in the day and Balls was at least well-known. I'm not sure the voter on the Clapham omnibus could pick out Raab in a police line-up.
    Skinner is the more likely big name casualty anyway, followed by Swinson
    I have always admired optimism, but there comes a point when it becomes a substitute for sanity. If you really believe that rather than just playing the political game you can get 11/4 for the SNP beating Swinson. Skinner is not a big name to the public.
    I suspect more of the public recognise Skinner than Raab or even Swinson
    Dennis Skinner losing Bolsover would really be a Portillo moment for me. he is well past his sell by date. More of a pantomime act these days.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    edited December 2019
    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

    Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

    Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

    Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

    I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).
    This campaign has at least killed the crap spun here by certain PB regulars that Bozo is somehow an Ace campaigner. In reality he is hiding behind the sofa and counting the days to next Thursday, while his party is barely fighting a campaign at all.
    He is a smart campaigner. He agreed to the very first debate with Corbyn and took Corbyn on head to head immediately thus neutering any charges of hiding for the rest of the country that don't want to watch 17 gazillion debates.
    That’s just partisan BS.

    If he were any good, he’d do the Neil interview confident that he could come away with at worst a draw, point to the comparison with Corbyn, and coast to victory on the 12th.

    In reality he is acting like a frightened child and from his hiding place praying that he will win by default.
    Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

    Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't
    I am a voter. I care.
    Yes, but maybe you care because of the type of questions that Neil would level at him, i.e. questions designed to embarrass rather than to enlighten?
    This overlooks one thing. It is, literally, impossible to embarrass Johnson. He could be caught groping Meghan Markle and would laugh it off.
  • JohnO said:

    And both the candidate and the founder of Advance Together (sic) both have strong LibDem links. Astonishing, isn't it.

    Reminds me of the 2015 Lib Dem Theresa May decapitation strategy in Maidenhead. That went well.
  • HYUFD said:

    alb1on said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    I just don't see Raab following the Portillo / Balls post politics career path.

    I'm not sure Raab is famous enough for people to care. Portillo in particular was all over the media back in the day and Balls was at least well-known. I'm not sure the voter on the Clapham omnibus could pick out Raab in a police line-up.
    Skinner is the more likely big name casualty anyway, followed by Swinson
    I have always admired optimism, but there comes a point when it becomes a substitute for sanity. If you really believe that rather than just playing the political game you can get 11/4 for the SNP beating Swinson. Skinner is not a big name to the public.
    I suspect more of the public recognise Skinner than Raab or even Swinson
    Only political geeks would recognise him.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

    Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

    Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

    Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

    I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).
    This campaign has at least killed the crap spun here by certain PB regulars that Bozo is somehow an Ace campaigner. In reality he is hiding behind the sofa and counting the days to next Thursday, while his party is barely fighting a campaign at all.
    He is a smart campaigner. He agreed to the very first debate with Corbyn and took Corbyn on head to head immediately thus neutering any charges of hiding for the rest of the country that don't want to watch 17 gazillion debates.
    That’s just partisan BS.

    If he were any good, he’d do the Neil interview confident that he could come away with at worst a draw, point to the comparison with Corbyn, and coast to victory on the 12th.

    In reality he is acting like a frightened child and from his hiding place praying that he will win by default.
    Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

    Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't
    I am a voter. I care.
    Yes, but maybe you care because of the type of questions that Neil would level at him, i.e. questions designed to embarrass rather than to enlighten?
    Not really, I just think he should be subjected to proper scrutiny like the other party leaders. If you Tories had more faith in him you'd be happy for him to do it. You obviously don't, yet you think he is fit to run the country. It's absurd.
    For the record I`m a Libdem not a Tory. I`m fed up with misrepresentations and lies all round.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    JohnO said:

    And both the candidate and the founder of Advance Together (sic) both have strong LibDem links. Astonishing, isn't it.
    The Electoral Commission and the Police really should look into this if this has been done to double the per-seat campaign spend in these seats.
    Lol. What kind of material do you think BXP candidates are putting out in the seats they are fighting?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,232

    rcs1000 said:

    Just to get everybody in the mood...BBC Exit polls 1992-2017..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myntJD4EXaQ

    Did they really forecast the LDs would gain only two seats? They completely missed massive levels of tactical voting.
    Do you mean 1997? No they forecast LDs getting 18% not 18 seats.

    Incidentally does anyone know anywhere a way of downloading the results (by party) of each seat in 1997? I can't find a chart of that anywhere.
    I'm looking at the screen grab. It has Tony Blair in the centre (which suggests the election is 1997), and then in the text below it says "Forecast LibDems gain around 2 seats".
  • Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

    Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

    Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

    Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

    I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn's (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).
    This campaign has at least killed the crap spun here by certain PB regulars that Bozo is somehow an Ace campaigner. In reality ting a campaign at all.
    He is a smart campaigner. He agreed to the very first debate with Corbyn and took Corbyn on head to head immediately thus neutering any charges of hiding for the rest of the country that don't want to watch 17 gazillion debates.
    That’s just partisan BS.

    If he were any good, he’d do the Neil interview confident that he could come away with at worst a draw, point to the comparison with Corbyn, and coast to victory on the 12th.

    In reality he is acting like a frightened child and from his hiding place praying that he will win by default.
    Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

    Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't
    I am a voter. I care.
    Yes, but maybe you care because of the type of questions that Neil would level at him, i.e. questions designed to embarrass rather than to enlighten?
    Not really, I just think he should be subjected to proper scrutiny like the other party leaders. If you Tories had more faith in him you'd be happy for him to do it. You obviously don't, yet you think he is fit to run the country. It's absurd.
    For the record I`m a Libdem not a Tory. I`m fed up with misrepresentations and lies all round.
    Then surely you'd like to see Johnson held properly accountable for his many lies by forensic questioning by one of our leading journalists. And I don't mean Philip Schofield.
  • The Corbynista from Dudley North that Sky News have got on needs to be recruited by the local Tories. She could talk Len McCluskey out of voting Labour.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    IanB2 said:

    That’s just partisan BS.

    If he were any good, he’d do the Neil interview confident that he could come away with at worst a draw, point to the comparison with Corbyn, and coast to victory on the 12th.

    In reality he is acting like a frightened child and from his hiding place praying that he will win by default.

    Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

    Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't
    I am a voter. I care.
    The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

    As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

    You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.
  • Jonathan said:

    @Jonathan - that's my view. Johnson has made his choice. After forcing several ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party for not following the ERG line it's not credible to think that he can change tack now.

    His ideological purge was brutal. People somehow overlook it. There is a denial cult forming around Boris just as potent as the Corbyn cult. Like a soap opera battered spouse, they know Boris is a bad news but hope he will come good one day despite the black eye.
    Garbage! The purge by Boris was nothing compared to MacMillan's 1962 Night of the Long Knives
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    IanB2 said:

    JohnO said:

    And both the candidate and the founder of Advance Together (sic) both have strong LibDem links. Astonishing, isn't it.
    The Electoral Commission and the Police really should look into this if this has been done to double the per-seat campaign spend in these seats.
    Lol. What kind of material do you think BXP candidates are putting out in the seats they are fighting?
    Not much if mine is anything to go by.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    I presume OGH's letters are like confetti in the post boxes of the poor voters of Esher...

    Looks like they’ve gone one better in this seat. Guido comes close to alleging they have a fake ‘independent’ candidate, for whom a £500 deposit unlocks a £30k spending allowance.
    https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/advance-together-party-leader-objective-syphon-tory-votes-lib-dems/
  • JohnO said:

    And both the candidate and the founder of Advance Together (sic) both have strong LibDem links. Astonishing, isn't it.

    Reminds me of the 2015 Lib Dem Theresa May decapitation strategy in Maidenhead. That went well.
    It was 2005 not 2015
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Garbage! The purge by Boris was nothing compared to MacMillan's 1962 Night of the Long Knives

    The ultra-remainers purged themselves.

    Once the WA has passed I think you will see a one-nation Conservative party reappear in the image of Boris who is 'wet'.

    I'd be happy to see some of those who sacrificed themselves for the EU back in the party at some point.
  • Re: the approval ratings. While it doesn't look great for Labour I would caution that the surge in Corbyn's approval came much later than the surge in Labour VI in 2017; In fact it started about now. The next set of approval figures should be the ones to watch.

    Not sure that's true.

    https://image.slidesharecdn.com/politicalmonitorjune2017charts-170602104938/95/political-monitor-june-2017-8-638.jpg?cb=1496402851

    It was May's fall that was decisive, not Corbyn's increase - which had started back in April when the election was called.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    @Jonathan - that's my view. Johnson has made his choice. After forcing several ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party for not following the ERG line it's not credible to think that he can change tack now.

    His ideological purge was brutal. People somehow overlook it. There is a denial cult forming around Boris just as potent as the Corbyn cult. Like a soap opera battered spouse, they know Boris is a bad news but hope he will come good one day despite the black eye.
    Garbage! The purge by Boris was nothing compared to MacMillan's 1962 Night of the Long Knives
    Nope. Macmillan sacked them from the cabinet. Boris sacked them from the party.
  • Sandpit said:

    I presume OGH's letters are like confetti in the post boxes of the poor voters of Esher...

    Looks like they’ve gone one better in this seat. Guido comes close to alleging they have a fake ‘independent’ candidate, for whom a £500 deposit unlocks a £30k spending allowance.
    https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/advance-together-party-leader-objective-syphon-tory-votes-lib-dems/
    “They have to have been delivered by Lib Dem leafleting teams. ‘Advance Together’ doesn’t have a ground game.”
  • HYUFD said:

    Has she apologized yet for promising to scrap tuition fees & then trebling them?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    “They have to have been delivered by Lib Dem leafleting teams. ‘Advance Together’ doesn’t have a ground game.”

    Serious if true.
  • melcf said:

    Bet 365 :
    Over and under seats for labour has slowly crept up, from baseline of 200 a few weeks ago, to be at 219 today
    Whilst the tories have slipped, from 350 to 340
    Lib Dems have been hammered

    Are we like in 2017? Something brewing out there, which we ignore?
    At this time, in 2017 it was talk of 400 tories seat. This time it's more of a small majority due to a collapse of Labour's Northern wall. This is after 9 years of austerity, cuts to the bone, specially in the North who rely on public services and spending.
    So on polling day, you expect many of them to wave the flag and vote for Boris, as a thank you for shafting me for 9 years?? Something does not add up. My gut feeling is, up North, Labour may lose 10-20 seats at the max. Many will end up voting Brexit Party, just to spite everyone.
    Would be happy to be proved wrong. Besides Brexit, Boris and Corbyn there are local leaders, many of whom have a personal vote or connection with the people. Which can easily bypass any national trends. As proven by Chris Matheson from Chester.

    For all the tedious claims about austerity the reality for most people is rather different. Here is an example of what people see in an area of Labour marginals:

    A brand new £8 million multiplex cinema in Doncaster’s Frenchgate Shopping Centre has been given the go-ahead and will open next year – the second new town centre cinema announced for the town in two days.

    The centre has received planning consent for the development and bosses are currently in discussions with two well-known cinema brands.

    Work on the £8 million investment will begin later this year, ahead of a spring 2020 opening.

    It comes just a day after a separate, new £8.5 million cinema and restaurant complex was announced for Sir Nigel Gresley Square.


    https://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/people/new-ps8-million-frenchgate-cinema-gets-go-ahead-and-will-open-next-year-41247
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Cookie said:

    Bob Willis - if you have 21 minutes to spare this evening, this is worth watching:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtPw_Ztlm_Q

    I always like watching a sportsman celebrate by basically looking quite cross. No-one ever beat Bob Willis at that.

    Also interesting how quiet cricket was in those days!

    That was a great 21 minutes, thanks.

    Gatting’s catch, at what is probably best described as a leg silly point, definitely being the highlight.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    HYUFD said:

    Has she apologized yet for promising to scrap tuition fees & then trebling them?
    Yes.
  • Interesting thread about poll turnout weighting: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200384070180866
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,443

    Jonathan said:

    @Jonathan - that's my view. Johnson has made his choice. After forcing several ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party for not following the ERG line it's not credible to think that he can change tack now.

    His ideological purge was brutal. People somehow overlook it. There is a denial cult forming around Boris just as potent as the Corbyn cult. Like a soap opera battered spouse, they know Boris is a bad news but hope he will come good one day despite the black eye.
    Garbage! The purge by Boris was nothing compared to MacMillan's 1962 Night of the Long Knives
    You're in denial. Macmillan only reshuffled his Cabinet. Johnson forced two ex-Chancellors and three more ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party. There's no precedent for it in British politics.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Sandpit said:

    I presume OGH's letters are like confetti in the post boxes of the poor voters of Esher...

    Looks like they’ve gone one better in this seat. Guido comes close to alleging they have a fake ‘independent’ candidate, for whom a £500 deposit unlocks a £30k spending allowance.
    https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/advance-together-party-leader-objective-syphon-tory-votes-lib-dems/
    And the “Liberals” standing in a batch of West Country seats are all genuine liberals? Despite most of them having been UKIP members not so long ago.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    SunnyJim said:


    “They have to have been delivered by Lib Dem leafleting teams. ‘Advance Together’ doesn’t have a ground game.”

    Serious if true.
    Pary members delivering leaflets for another candidate? Order of the day in Guildford where Anne Milton's are being delivered by people I know are Conservative members. Just try proving it is anything other than a similar matter.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Has she apologized yet for promising to scrap tuition fees & then trebling them?
    Yes.
    Does she believe in anything apart from revoke, transsexuals and killing squirrels?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Cookie said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Has she apologized yet for promising to scrap tuition fees & then trebling them?
    Yes.
    Does she believe in anything apart from revoke, transsexuals and killing squirrels?
    Yes, action to mitigate climate change.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    The fact that Bozo has to shoehorn the phrase 'One Nation' into every other sentence is clear evidence that he is not a One Nation Conservative.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

    As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

    You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

    In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

    The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

    This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Cookie said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Has she apologized yet for promising to scrap tuition fees & then trebling them?
    Yes.
    Does she believe in anything apart from revoke, transsexuals and killing squirrels?
    Castrating Johnson and despatching Corbyn to a care home?
  • Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Bob Willis - if you have 21 minutes to spare this evening, this is worth watching:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtPw_Ztlm_Q

    I always like watching a sportsman celebrate by basically looking quite cross. No-one ever beat Bob Willis at that.

    Also interesting how quiet cricket was in those days!

    That was a great 21 minutes, thanks.

    Gatting’s catch, at what is probably best described as a leg silly point, definitely being the highlight.
    Bob bowled even better to nearly repeat his Headingley heroics two years later:

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/16944/scorecard/63344/england-vs-new-zealand-2nd-test-new-zealand-tour-of-england-1983

    But the target was smaller and he had feeble support from the other end.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    SunnyJim said:


    “They have to have been delivered by Lib Dem leafleting teams. ‘Advance Together’ doesn’t have a ground game.”

    Serious if true.
    One might consider it underhand tactics but is that actually an offence though ?
    Anyone can deliver leaflets in the election so far as I'm aware.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    edited December 2019

    The fact that Bozo has to shoehorn the phrase 'One Nation' into every other sentence is clear evidence that he is not a One Nation Conservative.

    He's whatever the hell he thinks the punters want him to be, Sandy. You know that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,716
    Jonathan said:

    @Jonathan - that's my view. Johnson has made his choice. After forcing several ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party for not following the ERG line it's not credible to think that he can change tack now.

    His ideological purge was brutal. People somehow overlook it. There is a denial cult forming around Boris just as potent as the Corbyn cult. Like a soap opera battered spouse, they know Boris is a bad news but hope he will come good one day despite the black eye.
    It wasn't an ideological purge but a loyalty purge. People like Hammond convinced themselves that Johnson was committed to No Deal, but this just helped shore up his position with the people he was really getting ready to betray. If Johnson pulls off the same trick again, we're heading for a Hard BRINO.
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited December 2019

    Interesting thread about poll turnout weighting: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200384070180866

    They've applied the "Millennials and Cold" turnout filter... :wink:
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Interesting thread about poll turnout weighting: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200384070180866

    Showing the size of the Tory lead is very dependent on how turnout is treated.
  • kinabalu said:

    The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

    As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

    You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

    In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

    The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

    This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.
    It's called good politics, not cheating.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    kinabalu said:

    The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

    As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

    You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

    In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

    The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

    This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.
    How does the BBC force Boris to appear on TV?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    The fact that Bozo has to shoehorn the phrase 'One Nation' into every other sentence is clear evidence that he is not a One Nation Conservative.

    True . This one nation guff is getting as tired as Get Brexit Done .
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Cookie said:

    Bob Willis - if you have 21 minutes to spare this evening, this is worth watching:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtPw_Ztlm_Q

    I always like watching a sportsman celebrate by basically looking quite cross. No-one ever beat Bob Willis at that.

    Also interesting how quiet cricket was in those days!

    In the 1980s my first management job was marketing manager for Cornhill Insurance when we sponsored the tests. I can confirm that Bob Willis was capable of breaking into a broad smile. I saw him do this at a lunch where Ian Botham told the story about going out to bat with Boycott (the story related to a test in the 70s). Boycott had been doing what he always did - ignoring the interests of the team and playing at funereal pace when quick runs were needed. A young Botham, on the fall of the wicket, announced 'Don't worry lads, he'll be back in 5 minutes'. Botham went out, called a quick single, leant on his bat and watched Boycott stranded in the middle of the wicket. I did not see the original test, but Botham swore it was true and Willis wore the biggest smile I have ever seen as the story was told.
  • nico67 said:

    The fact that Bozo has to shoehorn the phrase 'One Nation' into every other sentence is clear evidence that he is not a One Nation Conservative.

    True . This one nation guff is getting as tired as Get Brexit Done .
    Whereas Corbyn doesn't pretend to be anything other than a hard leftist and openly reviles the moderate wing of his party...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

    As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

    You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

    In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

    The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

    This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.
    Cheating is probably the wrong word given that there is nothing in electoral law that states "thou shalt be interviewed by Andrew Neil," but I get the sentiment. Of course, there is nothing to say that Johnson wouldn't have been interviewed by Neil by now, and Corbyn wouldn't have kept well away, if Labour were doing really well with older voters and Johnson were desperate to win them back. Politicians will be politicians.

    I'm not sure what the BBC is supposed to do about this. They've no power to make the Prime Minister turn up, and there's very little they can do to try to embarass him that wouldn't fall foul of Ofcom - even assuming that any such action would have the effect that you would like. It could just as easily confirm voters who are already inclined to back the Prime Minister in their views of bias at the broadcaster, and thus firm up his support.
  • Banterman said:

    kinabalu said:

    The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

    As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

    You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

    In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

    The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

    This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.
    It's called good politics, not cheating.

    That's like saying a skilfully executed professional foul is good football. It may help you win the match, but it damages the sport.
    This whole episode is an interesting insight into the Tory character. It's not an attractive sight.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited December 2019
    nico67 said:

    The fact that Bozo has to shoehorn the phrase 'One Nation' into every other sentence is clear evidence that he is not a One Nation Conservative.

    True . This one nation guff is getting as tired as Get Brexit Done .
    It's the new 'long term economic plan'..... these messages repeated ad nauseam for we interested punters, is trying to reach those who barely want to tune in for anything to do with politics... Saving our NHS etc is the Labour equivalent EVERY election... what happened to their Brexit response of 'Get Brexit sorted' btw?
  • alb1on said:

    Cookie said:

    Bob Willis - if you have 21 minutes to spare this evening, this is worth watching:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtPw_Ztlm_Q

    I always like watching a sportsman celebrate by basically looking quite cross. No-one ever beat Bob Willis at that.

    Also interesting how quiet cricket was in those days!

    In the 1980s my first management job was marketing manager for Cornhill Insurance when we sponsored the tests. I can confirm that Bob Willis was capable of breaking into a broad smile. I saw him do this at a lunch where Ian Botham told the story about going out to bat with Boycott (the story related to a test in the 70s). Boycott had been doing what he always did - ignoring the interests of the team and playing at funereal pace when quick runs were needed. A young Botham, on the fall of the wicket, announced 'Don't worry lads, he'll be back in 5 minutes'. Botham went out, called a quick single, leant on his bat and watched Boycott stranded in the middle of the wicket. I did not see the original test, but Botham swore it was true and Willis wore the biggest smile I have ever seen as the story was told.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAeFm22xB7Q
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited December 2019
    Chris said:

    Interesting thread about poll turnout weighting: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200384070180866

    Showing the size of the Tory lead is very dependent on how turnout is treated.
    Yep - because if you use the 2017 actual voting ratios

    https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200398729220096

    which is a 7% gap and a 7% gap is hung Parliament territory.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    @eek

    They can't. But they could run a high profile piece on how they failed to secure him together with an apology for the resulting breach of their charter promise of impartiality. Something like that.
  • BluerBlue said:

    nico67 said:

    The fact that Bozo has to shoehorn the phrase 'One Nation' into every other sentence is clear evidence that he is not a One Nation Conservative.

    True . This one nation guff is getting as tired as Get Brexit Done .
    Whereas Corbyn doesn't pretend to be anything other than a hard leftist and openly reviles the moderate wing of his party...
    One Nation is a centreist rallying cry. There is nothing Centreist about the Conservative or Labour Parties as currently constituted.
  • Jonathan said:

    @Jonathan - that's my view. Johnson has made his choice. After forcing several ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party for not following the ERG line it's not credible to think that he can change tack now.

    His ideological purge was brutal. People somehow overlook it. There is a denial cult forming around Boris just as potent as the Corbyn cult. Like a soap opera battered spouse, they know Boris is a bad news but hope he will come good one day despite the black eye.
    Garbage! The purge by Boris was nothing compared to MacMillan's 1962 Night of the Long Knives
    You're in denial. Macmillan only reshuffled his Cabinet. Johnson forced two ex-Chancellors and three more ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party. There's no precedent for it in British politics.
    They were told explicitly that if they didn't support the position Boris had just been overwhelmingly elected party leader on, they would have the whip removed. Even after that, they were given the opportunity to repent.

    They chose to be sacked. Their choice.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If Ipsos Mori can put out these leadership ratings why on earth can they just not poll for voter intention in the same poll .

  • Banterman said:

    kinabalu said:

    The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

    As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

    You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

    In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

    The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

    This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.
    It's called good politics, not cheating.

    That's like saying a skilfully executed professional foul is good football. It may help you win the match, but it damages the sport.
    This whole episode is an interesting insight into the Tory character. It's not an attractive sight.
    You go ahead and concentrate on demonstrating attractive character traits, and we'll get on with winning and exercising political power. Deal? :wink:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Banterman said:

    It's called good politics, not cheating.

    It's both.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Banterman said:

    kinabalu said:

    The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

    As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

    You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

    In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

    The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

    This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.
    It's called good politics, not cheating.

    That's like saying a skilfully executed professional foul is good football. It may help you win the match, but it damages the sport.
    This whole episode is an interesting insight into the Tory character. It's not an attractive sight.
    Most of the World thinks a skilfully executed professional foul is good football since it may help you win the match, There are countless examples like Maradonna's handball
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    eek said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting thread about poll turnout weighting: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200384070180866

    Showing the size of the Tory lead is very dependent on how turnout is treated.
    Yep - because if you use the 2017 actual voting ratios

    https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200398729220096

    which is a 7% gap and a 7% gap is hung Parliament territory.
    People reweighting polls on twitter has a great record. Particularly enjoyed the 2012 Romney landslide.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019
    eek said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting thread about poll turnout weighting: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200384070180866

    Showing the size of the Tory lead is very dependent on how turnout is treated.
    Yep - because if you use the 2017 actual voting ratios

    https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200398729220096

    which is a 7% gap and a 7% gap is hung Parliament territory.
    And youth registration is even up on 2017.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    kinabalu said:

    Banterman said:

    It's called good politics, not cheating.

    It's both.
    Lib Dems good politics/cheating in the Esher ground game
    Tories good politics/cheating in the Neill interview
    Labour good politics/cheating leaking out sensitive/secret documents on the NHS
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    nico67 said:

    If Ipsos Mori can put out these leadership ratings why on earth can they just not poll for voter intention in the same poll .

    Because George Osborne is paying to have it in the Evening Standard tomorrow? ;)
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    eek said:

    How does the BBC force Boris to appear on TV?

    That's easy. they point a camera at him. Getting him to do an interview with Andrew Neil is an entirely different challenge
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019
    eek said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting thread about poll turnout weighting: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200384070180866

    Showing the size of the Tory lead is very dependent on how turnout is treated.
    Yep - because if you use the 2017 actual voting ratios

    https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200398729220096

    which is a 7% gap and a 7% gap is hung Parliament territory.
    No a 7% gap is what Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority and what Major got in 1992 when he won a majority
  • malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    I enjoy your posts - they focus on the betting.
    How many total SNP seats do you reckon?

    Low 40s.

    If pushed for an exact figure: 41.

    (If I’m miles out, in my defence, there are a hell of a lot of marginals.)
    I reckon trying to pick the Scottish seats is the trickiest aspect of this election by miles. Tories could be anywhere from 3 to 16.
    Tories could be anywhere from 4 to 20.
    Would you like a wager they are nowhere near 20
    I don’t think they’ll be anywhere near 20. It would mean them winning seats like Argyll and Bute, Central Ayrshire, East Lothian, Edinburgh North and Leith, Edinburgh South West, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, Lanark and Hamilton East, Linlithgow and East Falkirk, Midlothian, North Ayrshire and Arran or Paisley and North Renfrewshire.

    Those are all profoundly unlikely. But just imagine if:

    - SNP supporters fail to turn out
    - the SLD vote utterly collapses and goes straight to SCon
    - SLab vote halves, with most going straight to SCon
    - The SCons have wonderful differential turnout
    - Yes voters vote Green where there is a Green PPC

    Any of those things are feasible. In a nightmare scenario, all could happen.

    20 is their absolute dream upper limit. I’m not saying that that is what I expect to happen.
    I think James Kanga’ is on record as once saying to Ruth Davidson in a psephological presentation, “one day, you’ll win 20 seats.”

    She said; “no way.”
    She was right. She never will.
    Though there's an outside chance that the party that's been infested with the xenophobes, bigots and Brexiteers that she sneakily but assiduosly courted might do it, so Ruth will have done her bit if it ever cane to pass.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291

    Interesting thread about poll turnout weighting: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200384070180866

    Always think people who go trawling through opinion polls they don't like looking for weighting problems smacks of desperation. ;)
  • Banterman said:

    kinabalu said:

    The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

    As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

    You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

    In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

    The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

    This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.
    It's called good politics, not cheating.

    That's like saying a skilfully executed professional foul is good football. It may help you win the match, but it damages the sport.
    This whole episode is an interesting insight into the Tory character. It's not an attractive sight.
    In extremis, anything goes to prevent a Marxist government in the UK.

    Boris is playing to win anyway.

    I suspect even if he doesn't watch it, he knows the Queens Xmas message is on in the afternoon. That Corbyn can't even get that right, says so much about him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Given their seeming focus and message, will a Lib Dem membership card be mandatory at Wimbledon this year :D ?!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    GIN1138 said:

    nico67 said:

    If Ipsos Mori can put out these leadership ratings why on earth can they just not poll for voter intention in the same poll .

    Because George Osborne is paying to have it in the Evening Standard tomorrow? ;)
    Sounds plausible. I don't see any reason to expect a big change over the 9-10 level we've been seeing - nothing much has happened for a few days that I can see to change many minds.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Pulpstar said:

    Given their seeming focus and message, will a Lib Dem membership card be mandatory at Wimbledon this year :D ?!

    Henley and Glyndebourne certainly
  • HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting thread about poll turnout weighting: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200384070180866

    Showing the size of the Tory lead is very dependent on how turnout is treated.
    Yep - because if you use the 2017 actual voting ratios

    https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200398729220096

    which is a 7% gap and a 7% gap is hung Parliament territory.
    No a 7% gap is what Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority and what Major got in 1992 when he won a majority
    7% could just about be hung parliament territory but probably not. 6% probably would be. FWIW I think the lead is about 9-10% and the Tories will win a majority of about 40.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just to get everybody in the mood...BBC Exit polls 1992-2017..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myntJD4EXaQ

    Did they really forecast the LDs would gain only two seats? They completely missed massive levels of tactical voting.
    Do you mean 1997? No they forecast LDs getting 18% not 18 seats.

    Incidentally does anyone know anywhere a way of downloading the results (by party) of each seat in 1997? I can't find a chart of that anywhere.
    I'm looking at the screen grab. It has Tony Blair in the centre (which suggests the election is 1997), and then in the text below it says "Forecast LibDems gain around 2 seats".
    Oops LOL I missed that! 😊

    Does anyone know anywhere a way of downloading the results (by party) of each seat in 1997? I can't find a chart of that anywhere.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    I think a 7% lead would give a Tory majority. The Lib Dems don't look like they're getting particularly far into the Tory foothills and the Tories look as if though they're resisting the SNP in Scotland OK.
    Which means any sort of swing from Labour starts reaping net dividends very quickly.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    nico67 said:

    The fact that Bozo has to shoehorn the phrase 'One Nation' into every other sentence is clear evidence that he is not a One Nation Conservative.

    True . This one nation guff is getting as tired as Get Brexit Done .
    It's the new 'long term economic plan'..... these messages repeated ad nauseam for we interested punters, is trying to reach those who barely want to tune in for anything to do with politics... Saving our NHS etc is the Labour equivalent EVERY election... what happened to their Brexit response of 'Get Brexit sorted' btw?
    A reasonable point, Message discipline is for the consumption of the barely interested, not political anoraks like us.

    As @Scrapheap_as_was correctly points out, never mind the Tory guff: Labour have been boring us witless with their eternal "boy who cried wolf" routine over NHS privatisation for decades (whilst simultaneously, through PFI, injecting private profits made at the cost of the taxpayer into the healthcare system on a scale that its originator, John Major, never dared to attempt.) But they keep on banging the ropey old drum for a very good reason. It works.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    nico67 said:

    If Ipsos Mori can put out these leadership ratings why on earth can they just not poll for voter intention in the same poll .

    They probably have, but it’s under embargo for another couple of hours.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    It wasn't an ideological purge but a loyalty purge. People like Hammond convinced themselves that Johnson was committed to No Deal, but this just helped shore up his position with the people he was really getting ready to betray. If Johnson pulls off the same trick again, we're heading for a Hard BRINO.

    Yes. And do you agree with me that the Benn Act is what made this upcoming Tory majority inevitable?
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    alb1on said:

    Cookie said:

    Bob Willis - if you have 21 minutes to spare this evening, this is worth watching:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtPw_Ztlm_Q

    I always like watching a sportsman celebrate by basically looking quite cross. No-one ever beat Bob Willis at that.

    Also interesting how quiet cricket was in those days!

    In the 1980s my first management job was marketing manager for Cornhill Insurance when we sponsored the tests. I can confirm that Bob Willis was capable of breaking into a broad smile. I saw him do this at a lunch where Ian Botham told the story about going out to bat with Boycott (the story related to a test in the 70s). Boycott had been doing what he always did - ignoring the interests of the team and playing at funereal pace when quick runs were needed. A young Botham, on the fall of the wicket, announced 'Don't worry lads, he'll be back in 5 minutes'. Botham went out, called a quick single, leant on his bat and watched Boycott stranded in the middle of the wicket. I did not see the original test, but Botham swore it was true and Willis wore the biggest smile I have ever seen as the story was told.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAeFm22xB7Q
    Wonderful. I had not seen that film. Botham was a law unto himself. I remember that he had a contract with (I think) Nike and, after he came back from a short 'rest' due to having been found with some dope in the Windies, Nike prepared an advertising campaign with the tag line 'Botham's back on the grass'. He was all for it, but they chickened out.
  • Banterman said:

    Banterman said:

    kinabalu said:

    The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

    As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

    You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

    In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

    The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

    This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.
    It's called good politics, not cheating.

    That's like saying a skilfully executed professional foul is good football. It may help you win the match, but it damages the sport.
    This whole episode is an interesting insight into the Tory character. It's not an attractive sight.
    In extremis, anything goes to prevent a Marxist government in the UK.

    Boris is playing to win anyway.

    I suspect even if he doesn't watch it, he knows the Queens Xmas message is on in the afternoon. That Corbyn can't even get that right, says so much about him.
    You are degrading democracy though, don't complain if the other side think that they don't need to play fair either. "Anything goes" is a slippery slope.
    Also who gives a fuck about the Queen's Speech, seriously.
  • Stocky said:

    Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

    Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't

    I am a voter. I care.
    Yes, but maybe you care because of the type of questions that Neil would level at him, i.e. questions designed to embarrass rather than to enlighten?
    Not really, I just think he should be subjected to proper scrutiny like the other party leaders. If you Tories had more faith in him you'd be happy for him to do it. You obviously don't, yet you think he is fit to run the country. It's absurd.
    He had a head to head debate with the Leader of the Opposition? are you saying the Leader of the Opposition was incapable of holding him to account?

    Cameron always refused a debate with Andrew Neil. So did Blair and Brown from memory. I can't remember any of them agreeing to one during an election campaign. Funny that!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019
    There must be a very strange disjunction between the increased numbers of youth registrations since 2017, and the stated likelihood to vote that people are giving to pollsters, for these kind of weightings to be applied.

    Presumably, either the extent of the youth vote is still exceptionally fluid, or earlier enthusiasm has waned.

    I suspect a mixture of the two, which I think still means things are a little more unpredictable than they currently seem.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    edited December 2019
    Where does everyone think interest rates are going to go ?

    (Re)Mortgage provider offering me (With £999 fee)

    1.39% 2 years
    1.64% 3 years
    1.69% 5 years
    2.69% 10 years.

    The trackers are +0.84% 2 years, +1.44% 5 years
  • IanB2 said:

    JohnO said:

    And both the candidate and the founder of Advance Together (sic) both have strong LibDem links. Astonishing, isn't it.
    The Electoral Commission and the Police really should look into this if this has been done to double the per-seat campaign spend in these seats.
    Lol. What kind of material do you think BXP candidates are putting out in the seats they are fighting?
    I don't believe the BXP was set up by Tories to get around local spending limits.
This discussion has been closed.