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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab’s rock solid safe seat now a key GE2019 battlegro

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    kinabalu said:

    Yes. And do you agree with me that the Benn Act is what made this upcoming Tory majority inevitable?
    Quite possibly. I always thought Johnson was bluffing and parliament should have made him own everything that happened instead of trying to box him in.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,828
    Sandpit said:

    They probably have, but it’s under embargo for another couple of hours.
    Don’t their polls come out in the morning ready for the Evening Standard .

    It looks like the sum total of tonight’s poll excitement is going to be just Savanta Comres .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Cheating is probably the wrong word given that there is nothing in electoral law that states "thou shalt be interviewed by Andrew Neil," but I get the sentiment. Of course, there is nothing to say that Johnson wouldn't have been interviewed by Neil by now, and Corbyn wouldn't have kept well away, if Labour were doing really well with older voters and Johnson were desperate to win them back. Politicians will be politicians.

    I'm not sure what the BBC is supposed to do about this. They've no power to make the Prime Minister turn up, and there's very little they can do to try to embarass him that wouldn't fall foul of Ofcom - even assuming that any such action would have the effect that you would like. It could just as easily confirm voters who are already inclined to back the Prime Minister in their views of bias at the broadcaster, and thus firm up his support.
    The amazing thing is that Labour, LD, SNP and whoever else, isn’t running their social media 24/7 on Boris being a chicken, don’t have people following him everywhere he goes wearing chicken suits making utter arses of themselves in front of cameras etc etc.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,838
    alb1on said:

    In the 1980s my first management job was marketing manager for Cornhill Insurance when we sponsored the tests. I can confirm that Bob Willis was capable of breaking into a broad smile. I saw him do this at a lunch where Ian Botham told the story about going out to bat with Boycott (the story related to a test in the 70s). Boycott had been doing what he always did - ignoring the interests of the team and playing at funereal pace when quick runs were needed. A young Botham, on the fall of the wicket, announced 'Don't worry lads, he'll be back in 5 minutes'. Botham went out, called a quick single, leant on his bat and watched Boycott stranded in the middle of the wicket. I did not see the original test, but Botham swore it was true and Willis wore the biggest smile I have ever seen as the story was told.
    http://en.espn.co.uk/cricket/sport/story/192409.html
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Looking at the Ipsos Mori published tables and comparing them with the last one, Mori should have the Conservative lead at somewhere between 16-13%.
    Which would mean, if the lead is that large, it's all over except for the weather.

    The polls are settling around a Conservative majority of 24-64. Even if Labour get 35% in the end, if the weather doesn't affect election day the Conservatives still get a majority.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Where does everyone think interest rates are going to go ?

    (Re)Mortgage provider offering me (With £999 fee)

    1.39% 2 years
    1.64% 3 years
    1.69% 5 years
    2.69% 10 years.

    The trackers are +0.84% 2 years, +1.44% 5 years

    Is that not just them mitigating risk? Ie rates could still be low in 10 years but the longer the horizon the more risk there is?

    Its remarkable that 2.69% is the fixed rate, it demonstrates a confidence that rates will probably remain low for some time to come still.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,872
    edited December 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Where does everyone think interest rates are going to go ?

    (Re)Mortgage provider offering me (With £999 fee)

    1.39% 2 years
    1.64% 3 years
    1.69% 5 years
    2.69% 10 years.

    The trackers are +0.84% 2 years, +1.44% 5 years

    I've just taken a five year fix, more out of laziness that I don't want to have to switch again in two years, but I got a very decent rate.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,561
    Pulpstar said:

    Where does everyone think interest rates are going to go ?

    (Re)Mortgage provider offering me (With £999 fee)

    1.39% 2 years
    1.64% 3 years
    1.69% 5 years
    2.69% 10 years.

    The trackers are +0.84% 2 years, +1.44% 5 years

    My personal opinion is that they'll go nowehere until there's been another recession. we're getting to the position where one is becoming due as well. after that another couple of years before it goes up.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Pulpstar said:

    Where does everyone think interest rates are going to go ?

    (Re)Mortgage provider offering me (With £999 fee)

    1.39% 2 years
    1.64% 3 years
    1.69% 5 years
    2.69% 10 years.

    The trackers are +0.84% 2 years, +1.44% 5 years

    If we knew the answer to that, we’d all be millionaires!
    Assuming Corbyn doesn’t win the election, they’ll probably creep up until the next recession, when they’ll fall for a couple of years.
    Don’t do anything before the election!
  • You are degrading democracy though, don't complain if the other side think that they don't need to play fair either. "Anything goes" is a slippery slope.
    Also who gives a fuck about the Queen's Speech, seriously.

    Who's degrading democracy and why?

    Every PM besides the godawful May always evaded Neil so how is Boris setting any negative precedent given he is following the well-worn path of every other PM.
  • Sandpit said:

    The amazing thing is that Labour, LD, SNP and whoever else, isn’t running their social media 24/7 on Boris being a chicken, don’t have people following him everywhere he goes wearing chicken suits making utter arses of themselves in front of cameras etc etc.
    Instead of that, the man who used to wear the chicken suit for the daily mirror, Lee Cain, is now working at the top of Boris Johnson's campaign team, as their "voice from the streets".
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,267
    Pulpstar said:

    Where does everyone think interest rates are going to go ?

    (Re)Mortgage provider offering me (With £999 fee)

    1.39% 2 years
    1.64% 3 years
    1.69% 5 years
    2.69% 10 years.

    The trackers are +0.84% 2 years, +1.44% 5 years

    Do those tracker percentages include or exclude th BoE base rate 0.75%?
    Are these Nationwide B S rates?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Pulpstar said:

    Where does everyone think interest rates are going to go ?

    (Re)Mortgage provider offering me (With £999 fee)

    1.39% 2 years
    1.64% 3 years
    1.69% 5 years
    2.69% 10 years.

    The trackers are +0.84% 2 years, +1.44% 5 years

    0%
    If interest rates can't rise due to weak demand and investment during an expansion, they won't rise until way after the next recession or perhaps never again as Japan has showed.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,487
    edited December 2019
    Andrew Neil trying to get Swinson to admit voters don't like her. I reckon she's holding her own at the minute.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999

    He had a head to head debate with the Leader of the Opposition? are you saying the Leader of the Opposition was incapable of holding him to account?

    Cameron always refused a debate with Andrew Neil. So did Blair and Brown from memory. I can't remember any of them agreeing to one during an election campaign. Funny that!
    Labour have been amateurs over AN. No way should Corbyn have appeared until Boris was locked in too. Can you imagine Mandy or Campbell making such a school-boy error?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773

    One Nation Conservativism is alive and well, we have a One Nation Conservative Prime Minister.
    If you define the nation as "the English" than arguably this is the case. You could even stretch a point and include Wales. But given his insouciance regarding Scotland and the fact that he threw Northern Ireland under the bus, I don't think you can say Johnson is a One Nation Conservative if the nation under discussion is the United Kingdom. May genuinely cared about the Union, but Boris does not.
  • Andrew Neil trying to get Swinson to admit voters don't like her. I reckon she's holding her own at the minute.

    She's doing OK so far.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,838
    edited December 2019
    OK, here is a question:

    Who the af are the 35% of motorway users who don’t think arbitrary limits are imposed on SMART motorways for no reason?!

    https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/news/motoring-news/68-of-drivers-say-smart-motorways-compromise-safety
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems good politics/cheating in the Esher ground game
    Tories good politics/cheating in the Neill interview
    Labour good politics/cheating leaking out sensitive/secret documents on the NHS

    The Neil thing stands out. It relates to the fairness of election coverage by our national broadcaster. They've allowed one party leader to avoid the engagement which carries the most risk.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,892
    edited December 2019
    viewcode said:

    If you define the nation as "the English" than arguably this is the case. You could even stretch a point and include Wales. But given his insouciance regarding Scotland and the fact that he threw Northern Ireland under the bus, I don't think you can say Johnson is a One Nation Conservative if the nation under discussion is the United Kingdom. May genuinely cared about the Union, but Boris does not.
    Indeed. His pitch is in fact naked and unashamed English Nationalism mixed with Nixonian populism, and the Tories barely even attempt to conceal this nowadays.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm looking at the screen grab. It has Tony Blair in the centre (which suggests the election is 1997), and then in the text below it says "Forecast LibDems gain around 2 seats".
    That should be 2005 not 1997.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Sandpit said:

    The amazing thing is that Labour, LD, SNP and whoever else, isn’t running their social media 24/7 on Boris being a chicken, don’t have people following him everywhere he goes wearing chicken suits making utter arses of themselves in front of cameras etc etc.
    The typical sort of (younger) voter who gets all their news online isn't going to care that Johnson didn't turn up for a TV interview because they don't watch network TV; consequently, they didn't know that the interview was supposedly meant to be a thing, let alone feel dismayed that they didn't get to see it; and the vast majority of them probably haven't heard of Andrew Neil either.
  • Pulpstar said:

    2005 was on the money !
    To be honest it's pretty good throughout.

    It called the Tories as being on 301 seats rather than 336 in 1992 (so an error of 35 seats) but that's not awful.

    It has become so because it also gave Kinnock a chance of being short by 13 too, and I think that's the worst it has been.

    I expect the exit poll next week to be accurate within +/- 20 seats.
  • You are degrading democracy though, don't complain if the other side think that they don't need to play fair either. "Anything goes" is a slippery slope.
    Also who gives a fuck about the Queen's Speech, seriously.
    Labour doesn't play fair in the slightest already. And they want to stuff the voting rolls with non-citizens in the biggest act of electoral-rigging in generations, so you'll forgive me if I don't lose any sleep over Andrew Neil!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Where does everyone think interest rates are going to go ?

    (Re)Mortgage provider offering me (With £999 fee)

    1.39% 2 years
    1.64% 3 years
    1.69% 5 years
    2.69% 10 years.

    The trackers are +0.84% 2 years, +1.44% 5 years

    There is likely to be a recession over that time period, so it's possible rates could be cut but then again the job market and wages could be sluhgish.

    If you can take the risk a 2 year tracker. Otherwise I'd fix for 5 years if you're not moving, subject to ER penalities etc.
  • eek said:

    Yep - because if you use the 2017 actual voting ratios

    https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200398729220096

    which is a 7% gap and a 7% gap is hung Parliament territory.
    57% turnout in 18 to 24 age group klaxon...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,267
    Stocky said:

    Do those tracker percentages include or exclude th BoE base rate 0.75%?
    Are these Nationwide B S rates?

    I think they must exclude. So in that case the fixed rates look better. I`d be between the 5 year and 10 year fixed. £999 is a chunky fee.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    Pulpstar said:

    One might consider it underhand tactics but is that actually an offence though ?
    Anyone can deliver leaflets in the election so far as I'm aware.
    You have to declare election expenditure. If the Libs are indulging in sub-rosa political activity then it's an offence.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    She's doing OK so far.
    A score draw is her best result possible but doing ok so far
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,005
    IanB2 said:

    Lol. What kind of material do you think BXP candidates are putting out in the seats they are fighting?
    Anybody remember the Literal Democrat (notice the 't') in the '94 Euros who got 10,000 votes. The Tories won by 700.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The typical sort of (younger) voter who gets all their news online isn't going to care that Johnson didn't turn up for a TV interview because they don't watch network TV; consequently, they didn't know that the interview was supposedly meant to be a thing, let alone feel dismayed that they didn't get to see it; and the vast majority of them probably haven't heard of Andrew Neil either.
    But it wouldn’t have been difficult to persuade their online supporters to get a ‘meme’ going that Johnson’s a chicken who doesn’t want difficult interviews.

    Too late now though, postal votes are pouring in and we’re looking at a ten point lead come Election Day.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    Jo stands for inconsistency.

    We want a referendum! Not that one!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999

    The fact that Bozo has to shoehorn the phrase 'One Nation' into every other sentence is clear evidence that he is not a One Nation Conservative.

    It is clear evidence that some people still take a degree of convincing.

    But 5 years in 10 Downing Street will remedy that.
  • viewcode said:

    If you define the nation as "the English" than arguably this is the case. You could even stretch a point and include Wales. But given his insouciance regarding Scotland and the fact that he threw Northern Ireland under the bus, I don't think you can say Johnson is a One Nation Conservative if the nation under discussion is the United Kingdom. May genuinely cared about the Union, but Boris does not.
    Boris threw NI under the bus? The Conservatives bought NI the bus, asked NI to drive it, were a little but vague about the direction, at the last minute NI refused to agree to go anywhere, and all got off the bus in protest. The bus then drove away without them.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2019
    Because gender neutral uniforms are more important than spelling/checking your work

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1202224091706667008?s=21
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,579

    Andrew Neil trying to get Swinson to admit voters don't like her. I reckon she's holding her own at the minute.

    I am coming to the conclusion that in the event of a hung parliament Jo cannot support a minority Corbyn Government or a minority Corbyn/SNP government under any circumstances. I think she could support a Conservative minority government so long as Boris allows a second referendum. Is that likely?

    She is talking nonsense but doing much better than Corbyn did.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773

    Boris threw NI under the bus? The Conservatives bought NI the bus, asked NI to drive it, were a little but vague about the direction, at the last minute NI refused to agree to go anywhere, and all got off the bus in protest. The bus then drove away without them.
    That is perhaps an overliteral interpretation of the metaphor. It's not a real bus.

    Ah, my coat. Thank you, so kind.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    I think Boris, will be average at best. But what I like about him, is his ability to drive his opponents to foot stamping , teary eyed, frothing at the mouth impotent rage. It's not fair, it's not fair. He has to do AN, he just HAS to!
    Delicious.
  • Swinson skewered by her time in the coalition government. Still not doing too badly though.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099

    Boris threw NI under the bus? The Conservatives bought NI the bus, asked NI to drive it, were a little but vague about the direction, at the last minute NI refused to agree to go anywhere, and all got off the bus in protest. The bus then drove away without them.
    Bloody buses - you wait for ages and then four come along in one post.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,838
    viewcode said:

    That is perhaps an overliteral interpretation of the metaphor. It's not a real bus.

    Ah, my coat. Thank you, so kind.
    Will you please stop?
  • Have to say Jo Swinson is doing ok so far
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    isam said:

    Because gender neutral uniforms are more important than spelling/checking your work

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1202224091706667008?s=21

    It's not really an either/or though is it?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773

    Bloody buses - you wait for ages and then four come along in one post.
    Poisson distribution (sorry, it's a tic... :) )
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    isam said:

    Because gender neutral uniforms are more important than spelling/checking your work

    ttps://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1202224091706667008?s=21

    Nah, the “gender neutral passports” were the funniest one. Because there’s no international standard for passports, and every other country is quite happy to give a visa to someone who can’t decide if they’re male or female.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    viewcode said:

    That is perhaps an overliteral interpretation of the metaphor. It's not a real bus.

    Ah, my coat. Thank you, so kind.
    The real buses are built in Northern Ireland.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,579

    Swinson skewered by her time in the coalition government. Still not doing too badly though.

    I think she is being given an easier ride than he would give Boris.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Bloody buses - you wait for ages and then four come along in one post.
    You are clearly not from the Rural North where 4 buses dont even come along in a week
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,838

    I am coming to the conclusion that in the event of a hung parliament Jo cannot support a minority Corbyn Government or a minority Corbyn/SNP government under any circumstances. I think she could support a Conservative minority government so long as Boris allows a second referendum. Is that likely?
    No.

    Anyway, if the Liberal Democrats outnumber the Euroscpetic Tories there seems a very real chance Swinson will be Prime Minister.
  • kinabalu said:

    The Neil thing stands out. It relates to the fairness of election coverage by our national broadcaster. They've allowed one party leader to avoid the engagement which carries the most risk.
    They don't "allow" anything, party leaders choose which engagements they wish to partake in. Just because Corbyn and May agreed to Neil doesn't mean anyone else has to do so.

    Did they "allow" Cameron and Brown to avoid Neil in 2010?
    Did they "allow" Cameron and Miliband to avoid Neil in 2015?
    Did they "allow" Blair and Howard to avoid Neil in 2005?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296

    Cheating is probably the wrong word given that there is nothing in electoral law that states "thou shalt be interviewed by Andrew Neil," but I get the sentiment. Of course, there is nothing to say that Johnson wouldn't have been interviewed by Neil by now, and Corbyn wouldn't have kept well away, if Labour were doing really well with older voters and Johnson were desperate to win them back. Politicians will be politicians.

    I'm not sure what the BBC is supposed to do about this. They've no power to make the Prime Minister turn up, and there's very little they can do to try to embarass him that wouldn't fall foul of Ofcom - even assuming that any such action would have the effect that you would like. It could just as easily confirm voters who are already inclined to back the Prime Minister in their views of bias at the broadcaster, and thus firm up his support.

    I don't think something has to be illegal for it to be cheating. Anyway I don't blame him I blame the BBC. They have a duty to be fair in an election. In allowing just "Boris" to avoid their most challenging interviewer - if they do nothing to mitigate - they have failed in that duty. It's not the end of democracy as we know it but it IS quite a serious matter.
  • Swinson skewered by her time in the coalition government. Still not doing too badly though.

    She's better in this one to one format than meeting the great British public. However, she's on shaky ground on multiple areas - coalition record, second EU referendum but not Indyref2 etc.

    Better than Jezza, though. Less arsey about being asked questions.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Indeed. His pitch is in fact naked and unashamed English Nationalism mixed with Nixonian populism, and the Tories barely even attempt to conceal this nowadays.
    *IF* your analysis is correct then one could also argue that, given something like 45% of the Scots and Northern Irish don't care about the Union, it was not a total surprise that an English Prime Minister who didn't much care for it either should eventually emerge.

    Since the last Blair victory in 2005, the Tory overall majority in terms of English seats only has been 61 (2010,) 103 (2015) and 59 (2017.) All comfortable margins, and all greater than the total number of seats in Wales. Now that Labour have gone crackers and show no signs of an imminent return to sanity, the dissolution of the Union arguably represents England's best medium-term defence against a Corbynite Government propped up by SNP votes. If some English Tories secretly harbour this view then this oughtn't to be considered particularly odd.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,838

    She's better in this one to one format than meeting the great British public. However, she's on shaky ground on multiple areas - coalition record, second EU referendum but not Indyref2 etc.

    Better than Jezza, though. Less arsey about being asked questions.
    That’s setting the bar so low even an anorexic limbo dancer couldn’t slip under it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    ydoethur said:

    No.

    Anyway, if the Liberal Democrats outnumber the Euroscpetic Tories there seems a very real chance Swinson will be Prime Minister.
    She has done very well even apologizing for mistakes or wrong choices in coalition. No shouty shouty quite relaxed 7/10
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099

    You are clearly not from the Rural North where 4 buses dont even come along in a week
    Obviously here in the privileged rural south we have a four buses per hour in every Dorset village.

    Or maybe not.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,579
    ydoethur said:

    No.

    Anyway, if the Liberal Democrats outnumber the Euroscpetic Tories there seems a very real chance Swinson will be Prime Minister.
    I have had along day, which is my excuse for not understanding what you are saying.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999
    edited December 2019
    Best poster site this election must go to Conservative Mel Stride. He has a poster on the A38 next to the famous full size Star Wars AT-ST Walker that a local built for his two girls to play in.

    It looks awesome! I hope somebody gets an image up of it.

    This is the beast (been repainted recently):

    https://metro.co.uk/2019/02/05/sci-fi-fan-can-keep-star-wars-vehicle-outside-winning-planning-permission-8451059/
  • ydoethur said:

    That’s setting the bar so low even an anorexic limbo dancer couldn’t slip under it.
    Hey, I didn't say it wasn't.
    Better than not turning up, though.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    Banterman said:

    They were told explicitly that if they didn't support the position Boris had just been overwhelmingly elected party leader on, they would have the whip removed. Even after that, they were given the opportunity to repent.

    They chose to be sacked. Their choice.
    Giving advance notice of doing something extreme does not make it less extreme.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2019

    It's not really an either/or though is it?
    How do you split the two in regard to their importance in education?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,828
    edited December 2019
    Good on Jo Swinson for putting herself through the AN ordeal . I thought she did okay .

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999

    Bloody buses - you wait for ages and then four come along in one post.
    What does it say on the side of them?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,838

    I have had along day, which is my excuse for not understanding what you are saying.
    Roughly:

    No, it is not likely Boris Johnson will concede a second referendum.

    For that to happen, the Liberal Democrats would have to outnumber Eurosceptic Tory MPs, which will after this election be almost the entire party. Therefore, if they outnumber the ERG, they are likely to have a majority in Parliament and Swinson will be PM.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,838

    What does it say on the side of them?
    £350 million a week - for unlimited off peak travel.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    isam said:

    How do you split the two in regard to their importance in education?
    In this world of emojis, isn't spelling a rather outdated skill?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,579
    nichomar said:

    She has done very well even apologizing for mistakes or wrong choices in coalition. No shouty shouty quite relaxed 7/10
    She was OK, but if you tot up what she actually said she was only a 5 at best. That compares to Corbyn's solid 0.5 out of 10 performance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    That's like saying a skilfully executed professional foul is good football. It may help you win the match, but it damages the sport.
    This whole episode is an interesting insight into the Tory character. It's not an attractive sight.
    Because what our country really needs right now is a PM who has only got one oar in the water.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    They don't "allow" anything, party leaders choose which engagements they wish to partake in. Just because Corbyn and May agreed to Neil doesn't mean anyone else has to do so.

    Did they "allow" Cameron and Brown to avoid Neil in 2010?
    Did they "allow" Cameron and Miliband to avoid Neil in 2015?
    Did they "allow" Blair and Howard to avoid Neil in 2005?
    You know Johnson would be left a shivering jelly if he did the interview so you hide behind ‘he doesn’t he has to do it’ it’s pathetic but the great British public will not notice and all you are interested in is a Tory majority regardless how and on what basis it is gained. The new definition of one nation Tory makes me laugh as apparently a one nation Tory is reflective of the membership who think they occupy the center ground, well it’s a view.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    nico67 said:

    Good on Jo Swinson for putting herself through the AN ordeal . I thought she did okay .

    Yes she did OK from the bit I saw.

    BORIS your turn now!

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,579
    ydoethur said:

    Roughly:

    No, it is not likely Boris Johnson will concede a second referendum.

    For that to happen, the Liberal Democrats would have to outnumber Eurosceptic Tory MPs, which will after this election be almost the entire party. Therefore, if they outnumber the ERG, they are likely to have a majority in Parliament and Swinson will be PM.
    Thanks for the explanation, but is that a squadron of pigs I see flying by?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999
    GIN1138 said:

    Everyone loves a Big Bong but that one has multiple Big Bongs. :D
    Multiple big bongs was a recommeneded procedure for surviving thirteen years of Blair and Brown
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,838
    nichomar said:

    You know Johnson would be left a shivering jelly if he did the interview so you hide behind ‘he doesn’t he has to do it’ it’s pathetic but the great British public will not notice and all you are interested in is a Tory majority regardless how and on what basis it is gained. The new definition of one nation Tory makes me laugh as apparently a one nation Tory is reflective of the membership who think they occupy the center ground, well it’s a view.
    Oh, come on. He wouldn’t be that bad, surely?

    Surely?

    Ummm....ok, well:
    https://youtu.be/GUf9wsPFtJE
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,838
    edited December 2019

    Thanks for the explanation, but is that a squadron of pigs I see flying by?
    Only one squadron?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,579
    ydoethur said:

    Oh, come on. He wouldn’t be that bad, surely?

    Surely?

    Ummm....ok, well:
    https://youtu.be/GUf9wsPFtJE
    You are just trolling poor old Boris now!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999
    Ave_it said:

    Yes she did OK from the bit I saw.

    BORIS your turn now!

    You've got Farage first.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296

    Quite possibly. I always thought Johnson was bluffing and parliament should have made him own everything that happened instead of trying to box him in.

    Exactly. They gave him an alibi and then for good measure an election in which to use it to maximum effect. Hapless.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited December 2019
    Guido doubling down, it turns out that “advance together” are standing five candidates, all in LD/Con contests, and are doing no campaigning except for high-quality anti-Tory leaflets that don’t mention their candidate, and all run by people who were active LDs two years ago. Their ‘party leader’ ran a website suggesting that she was trying to attract Tory to LD switchers.
    https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/advance-together-party-leader-objective-syphon-tory-votes-lib-dems/
    I imagine someone is going to report this to the police and Electoral Commission, hope there’s no emails anywhere, or maybe they were all with the press officer they suspended this week?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    isam said:

    How do you split the two in regard to their importance in education?
    I see the Tories have a policy on ending unfair hospital car parking charges; presumably because that's more important than treating patients.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Regarding poll weight the one thing that stuck with me is that in 2015 smart people on here noticed pollsters (especially YouGov) had completely messed up their weightings and gave the young far too high a propensity to vote. And once you dragged them down to historical levels the Cons had a healthy lead.
    I ignored those people when I put national level bets.

    I think about that a lot.
  • ydoethur said:

    Only one squadron?
    Tory defence cuts
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,838

    Tory defence cuts
    Well, they’re twenty thousand pigs down...
  • The typical sort of (younger) voter who gets all their news online isn't going to care that Johnson didn't turn up for a TV interview because they don't watch network TV; consequently, they didn't know that the interview was supposedly meant to be a thing, let alone feel dismayed that they didn't get to see it; and the vast majority of them probably haven't heard of Andrew Neil either.
    Agreed.

    Corbyn and Sturgeon were daft to do the Neil interviews. Johnson played them, and the BBC, beautifully. End of chapter. And another nail in the coffin of state broadcasting.

    The world has moved on. Politicians will wake up eventually.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,579
    ydoethur said:

    Well, they’re twenty thousand pigs down...
    That really doesn't deserve a response!
  • Evening all,

    Been busy all day. Just seen the Bob Willis news. Now I feel old.
  • nichomar said:

    You know Johnson would be left a shivering jelly if he did the interview so you hide behind ‘he doesn’t he has to do it’ it’s pathetic but the great British public will not notice and all you are interested in is a Tory majority regardless how and on what basis it is gained. The new definition of one nation Tory makes me laugh as apparently a one nation Tory is reflective of the membership who think they occupy the center ground, well it’s a view.
    There's nothing new. Cameron didn't do it either and I respected him.

    Not a single leader I respect has ever agreed to be interviewed by Neil during an election campaign.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    So, if you look at the last three polls with reference to each pollster's previous poll, the Labour surge seems to have come to a halt:

    You Gov - 9% lead remains a 9% lead (28-29/11 vs 2-3/12)
    ICM - 7% lead remains a 7% lead (22-25/11 vs 29-2/12)
    Kantar - 11% leads increases to 12% lead (21-25/11 vs 28-2/12)

    If none of these pollsters changed methodology or waiting between their polls, my guess is Labour are running out of time to stop a Con majority.
  • Where is Antifrank/Meeks?
  • There's nothing new. Cameron didn't do it either and I respected him.

    Not a single leader I respect has ever agreed to be interviewed by Neil during an election campaign.
    Andrew Neil is good, but he is not God.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I see the Tories have a policy on ending unfair hospital car parking charges; presumably because that's more important than treating patients.
    I think you’ve missed the point, that being there is a spelling mistake in Swinson’s tweet
  • Where is Antifrank/Meeks?

    Opening a tin of pineapple?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Any polls later?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999

    Where is Antifrank/Meeks?

    I think he said he would be away for a while "for reasons that would become obvious".

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The thing I'm amazed by is how a news paper editor who associated with a holocaust denier and unrepentantly published HIV/AIDs denial is now a respected political interviewer rather than a pariah.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,198
    Good for JSwinson.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,838
    edited December 2019

    I think he said he would be away for a while "for reasons that would become obvious".
    I hope he’s not planning a coup.

    I mean, Mr Eagles will never survive being force fed pineapple on his pizza.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    saddened said:

    I think Boris, will be average at best. But what I like about him, is his ability to drive his opponents to foot stamping , teary eyed, frothing at the mouth impotent rage. It's not fair, it's not fair. He has to do AN, he just HAS to!
    Delicious.

    You are rather petty in other words?
  • isam said:

    I think you’ve missed the point, that being there is a spelling mistake in Swinson’s tweet
    Her tweet is dishonest: it is not a “Plan for Britain’s Future” but rather a plan for England’s future.
  • Where is Antifrank/Meeks?

    He's been around regularly throughout the GE campaign, but maybe not for the last day or so. He's also far less active on the betting front than he has been in the past. Not that one could blame him ... there just seems to be an almost negligible interest on this site for such activity, which was once its corner stone.
This discussion has been closed.