politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab’s rock solid safe seat now a key GE2019 battlegro

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Ironically a huge Tory win could be doubly-good for the sanity of both parties.

In Labour it would force Labour to look into its soul and realise what has gone wrong.
In the Conservatives it would permit the PM to have some breathing space and not permit the ERG or other extreme wings to be able to veto policies.

Boris sacked the Tory one Nation wing and conspired with ERG to unseat May and win No10. Chips will be cashed. Your going to be disappointed.

No he didn't. He sacked extreme Europhile rebels. That has nothing to do with One Nation.

What makes you define One Nation as Phil Hammond?

Clarke, Rudd are together more One Nation than the remaining Conservative party. One Nation Conservatism is dead.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Labour's great hope, Trump, would dish Boris's campaign has failed to materalise with the headline being Trump falls out with Trudeau, cancels news conference, and flies home

While Boris gets to look all Prime Ministerial with his closing speech and delivers a withering PPB at the end on Corbyn

Yes - ironically NATO / Trump appears to have helped Boris - because it's pushed the GE out of the news for 3 days.

That, following the terrorist incident last Friday, means there has now been 6 days with GE out of the news.

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Ironically a huge Tory win could be doubly-good for the sanity of both parties.

In Labour it would force Labour to look into its soul and realise what has gone wrong.
In the Conservatives it would permit the PM to have some breathing space and not permit the ERG or other extreme wings to be able to veto policies.

Boris sacked the Tory one Nation wing and conspired with ERG to unseat May and win No10. Chips will be cashed. Your going to be disappointed.

No he didn't. He sacked extreme Europhile rebels. That has nothing to do with One Nation.

What makes you define One Nation as Phil Hammond?

Clarke, Rudd are together more One Nation than the remaining Conservative party. One Nation Conservatism is dead.

Economically Boris is left of Cameron and Osborne, he is only not One Nation if you define One Nation as pro EU

Jonathan said:

LostPassword said:

@Jonathan - that's my view. Johnson has made his choice. After forcing several ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party for not following the ERG line it's not credible to think that he can change tack now.

His ideological purge was brutal. People somehow overlook it. There is a denial cult forming around Boris just as potent as the Corbyn cult. Like a soap opera battered spouse, they know Boris is a bad news but hope he will come good one day despite the black eye.

It makes you long for a slap down like Jeremy Thorpe's to MacMillan;
"Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life."

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).

This campaign has at least killed the crap spun here by certain PB regulars that Bozo is somehow an Ace campaigner. In reality he is hiding behind the sofa and counting the days to next Thursday, while his party is barely fighting a campaign at all.

He is a smart campaigner. He agreed to the very first debate with Corbyn and took Corbyn on head to head immediately thus neutering any charges of hiding for the rest of the country that don't want to watch 17 gazillion debates.

That’s just partisan BS.

If he were any good, he’d do the Neil interview confident that he could come away with at worst a draw, point to the comparison with Corbyn, and coast to victory on the 12th.

In reality he is acting like a frightened child and from his hiding place praying that he will win by default.

Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't

I am a voter. I care.

You'd never vote for him anyway and just want a last chance for something to go wrong. No thanks!

Got our first LD leaflet today - mentions "Corbyn's Labour" (though I'm not sure Wes would take too kindly to that!) but no mention of the Tory candidate!

Re: the approval ratings. While it doesn't look great for Labour I would caution that the surge in Corbyn's approval came much later than the surge in Labour VI in 2017; In fact it started about now. The next set of approval figures should be the ones to watch.

Stocky said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn't vote Corbyn if he was the only choice on the ballot, but I think they have had a better campaign than the Tories (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).

This campaign has at least killed the crap spun here by certain PB regulars that Bozo is somehow an Ace campaigner. In reality he is hiding behind the sofa and counting the days to next Thursday, while his party is barely fighting a campaign at all.

He is a smart campaigner. He agreed to the very first debate with Corbyn and took Corbyn on head to head immediately thus neutering any charges of hiding for the rest of the country that don't want to watch 17 gazillion debates.

That’s just partisan BS.

If he were any good, he’d do the Neil interview confident that he could come away with at worst a draw, point to the comparison with Corbyn, and coast to victory on the 12th.

In reality he is acting like a frightened child and from his hiding place praying that he will win by default.

Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't

I am a voter. I care.

Yes, but maybe you care because of the type of questions that Neil would level at him, i.e. questions designed to embarrass rather than to enlighten?

Not really, I just think he should be subjected to proper scrutiny like the other party leaders. If you Tories had more faith in him you'd be happy for him to do it. You obviously don't, yet you think he is fit to run the country. It's absurd.

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Ironically a huge Tory win could be doubly-good for the sanity of both parties.

In Labour it would force Labour to look into its soul and realise what has gone wrong.
In the Conservatives it would permit the PM to have some breathing space and not permit the ERG or other extreme wings to be able to veto policies.

Boris sacked the Tory one Nation wing and conspired with ERG to unseat May and win No10. Chips will be cashed. Your going to be disappointed.

No he didn't. He sacked extreme Europhile rebels. That has nothing to do with One Nation.

What makes you define One Nation as Phil Hammond?

Clarke, Rudd are together more One Nation than the remaining Conservative party. One Nation Conservatism is dead.

One Nation Conservativism is alive and well, we have a One Nation Conservative Prime Minister.

Phil Hammond was never One Nation. Don't confuse One Nation with Europhile, they're not the same thing.

JohnO said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1202186385333063685

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1202186951337631744

And both the candidate and the founder of Advance Together (sic) both have strong LibDem links. Astonishing, isn't it.

Reminds me of the 2015 Lib Dem Theresa May decapitation strategy in Maidenhead. That went well.

HYUFD said:

alb1on said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

eek said:

I just don't see Raab following the Portillo / Balls post politics career path.

I'm not sure Raab is famous enough for people to care. Portillo in particular was all over the media back in the day and Balls was at least well-known. I'm not sure the voter on the Clapham omnibus could pick out Raab in a police line-up.

Skinner is the more likely big name casualty anyway, followed by Swinson

I have always admired optimism, but there comes a point when it becomes a substitute for sanity. If you really believe that rather than just playing the political game you can get 11/4 for the SNP beating Swinson. Skinner is not a big name to the public.

I suspect more of the public recognise Skinner than Raab or even Swinson

Only political geeks would recognise him.

Philip_Thompson said:

JohnO said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1202186385333063685

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1202186951337631744

And both the candidate and the founder of Advance Together (sic) both have strong LibDem links. Astonishing, isn't it.

The Electoral Commission and the Police really should look into this if this has been done to double the per-seat campaign spend in these seats.

Lol. What kind of material do you think BXP candidates are putting out in the seats they are fighting?

Stocky said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Stocky said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

I imagine that everyone's already seen this, but anyway...

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202249094862983170

Johnson's ratings down only a touch, Corbyn flatlining. Johnson 24 points ahead of Corbyn (and the Tories also 22 points ahead of Labour on "best campaign" question.)

Perhaps the Conservatives are winning the campaign this time? Seven days remaining for Labour to turn things around.

Basically Jezza is exactly where he started the campaign.

I am really struggling to get my head around the Tories winning the campaign by such a margin....I wouldn's (even if the policies are a combination of ridiculously expensive, self defeating and / or unworkable).

This campaign has at least killed the crap spun here by certain PB regulars that Bozo is somehow an Ace campaigner. In reality ting a campaign at all.

He is a smart campaigner. He agreed to the very first debate with Corbyn and took Corbyn on head to head immediately thus neutering any charges of hiding for the rest of the country that don't want to watch 17 gazillion debates.

That’s just partisan BS.

If he were any good, he’d do the Neil interview confident that he could come away with at worst a draw, point to the comparison with Corbyn, and coast to victory on the 12th.

In reality he is acting like a frightened child and from his hiding place praying that he will win by default.

Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't

I am a voter. I care.

Yes, but maybe you care because of the type of questions that Neil would level at him, i.e. questions designed to embarrass rather than to enlighten?

Not really, I just think he should be subjected to proper scrutiny like the other party leaders. If you Tories had more faith in him you'd be happy for him to do it. You obviously don't, yet you think he is fit to run the country. It's absurd.

For the record I`m a Libdem not a Tory. I`m fed up with misrepresentations and lies all round.

Then surely you'd like to see Johnson held properly accountable for his many lies by forensic questioning by one of our leading journalists. And I don't mean Philip Schofield.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

That’s just partisan BS.

If he were any good, he’d do the Neil interview confident that he could come away with at worst a draw, point to the comparison with Corbyn, and coast to victory on the 12th.

In reality he is acting like a frightened child and from his hiding place praying that he will win by default.

Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't

I am a voter. I care.

The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

https://twitter.com/jonathansimons/status/1202291262394638336?s=20

Jonathan said:

LostPassword said:

@Jonathan - that's my view. Johnson has made his choice. After forcing several ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party for not following the ERG line it's not credible to think that he can change tack now.

His ideological purge was brutal. People somehow overlook it. There is a denial cult forming around Boris just as potent as the Corbyn cult. Like a soap opera battered spouse, they know Boris is a bad news but hope he will come good one day despite the black eye.

Garbage! The purge by Boris was nothing compared to MacMillan's 1962 Night of the Long Knives

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I presume OGH's letters are like confetti in the post boxes of the poor voters of Esher...

Looks like they’ve gone one better in this seat. Guido comes close to alleging they have a fake ‘independent’ candidate, for whom a £500 deposit unlocks a £30k spending allowance.
https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/advance-together-party-leader-objective-syphon-tory-votes-lib-dems/

NorthCadboll said:

Garbage! The purge by Boris was nothing compared to MacMillan's 1962 Night of the Long Knives

The ultra-remainers purged themselves.

Once the WA has passed I think you will see a one-nation Conservative party reappear in the image of Boris who is 'wet'.

I'd be happy to see some of those who sacrificed themselves for the EU back in the party at some point.

NorthCadboll said:

Jonathan said:

LostPassword said:

@Jonathan - that's my view. Johnson has made his choice. After forcing several ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party for not following the ERG line it's not credible to think that he can change tack now.

His ideological purge was brutal. People somehow overlook it. There is a denial cult forming around Boris just as potent as the Corbyn cult. Like a soap opera battered spouse, they know Boris is a bad news but hope he will come good one day despite the black eye.

Garbage! The purge by Boris was nothing compared to MacMillan's 1962 Night of the Long Knives

Nope. Macmillan sacked them from the cabinet. Boris sacked them from the party.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1202294907936923651?s=20

Has she apologized yet for promising to scrap tuition fees & then trebling them?

melcf said:

Bet 365 :
Over and under seats for labour has slowly crept up, from baseline of 200 a few weeks ago, to be at 219 today
Whilst the tories have slipped, from 350 to 340
Lib Dems have been hammered

Are we like in 2017? Something brewing out there, which we ignore?
At this time, in 2017 it was talk of 400 tories seat. This time it's more of a small majority due to a collapse of Labour's Northern wall. This is after 9 years of austerity, cuts to the bone, specially in the North who rely on public services and spending.
So on polling day, you expect many of them to wave the flag and vote for Boris, as a thank you for shafting me for 9 years?? Something does not add up. My gut feeling is, up North, Labour may lose 10-20 seats at the max. Many will end up voting Brexit Party, just to spite everyone.
Would be happy to be proved wrong. Besides Brexit, Boris and Corbyn there are local leaders, many of whom have a personal vote or connection with the people. Which can easily bypass any national trends. As proven by Chris Matheson from Chester.

For all the tedious claims about austerity the reality for most people is rather different. Here is an example of what people see in an area of Labour marginals:

A brand new £8 million multiplex cinema in Doncaster’s Frenchgate Shopping Centre has been given the go-ahead and will open next year – the second new town centre cinema announced for the town in two days.

The centre has received planning consent for the development and bosses are currently in discussions with two well-known cinema brands.

Work on the £8 million investment will begin later this year, ahead of a spring 2020 opening.

It comes just a day after a separate, new £8.5 million cinema and restaurant complex was announced for Sir Nigel Gresley Square.

https://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/people/new-ps8-million-frenchgate-cinema-gets-go-ahead-and-will-open-next-year-41247

funkhauser said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1202294907936923651?s=20

Has she apologized yet for promising to scrap tuition fees & then trebling them?

Yes.

NorthCadboll said:

Jonathan said:

LostPassword said:

@Jonathan - that's my view. Johnson has made his choice. After forcing several ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party for not following the ERG line it's not credible to think that he can change tack now.

His ideological purge was brutal. People somehow overlook it. There is a denial cult forming around Boris just as potent as the Corbyn cult. Like a soap opera battered spouse, they know Boris is a bad news but hope he will come good one day despite the black eye.

Garbage! The purge by Boris was nothing compared to MacMillan's 1962 Night of the Long Knives

You're in denial. Macmillan only reshuffled his Cabinet. Johnson forced two ex-Chancellors and three more ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party. There's no precedent for it in British politics.

SunnyJim said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

“They have to have been delivered by Lib Dem leafleting teams. ‘Advance Together’ doesn’t have a ground game.”

Serious if true.

Pary members delivering leaflets for another candidate? Order of the day in Guildford where Anne Milton's are being delivered by people I know are Conservative members. Just try proving it is anything other than a similar matter.

Cookie said:

Jonathan said:

funkhauser said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1202294907936923651?s=20

Has she apologized yet for promising to scrap tuition fees & then trebling them?

Yes.

Does she believe in anything apart from revoke, transsexuals and killing squirrels?

Yes, action to mitigate climate change.

Black_Rook said:

The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.

Sandpit said:

Cookie said:

Bob Willis - if you have 21 minutes to spare this evening, this is worth watching:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtPw_Ztlm_Q

I always like watching a sportsman celebrate by basically looking quite cross. No-one ever beat Bob Willis at that.

Also interesting how quiet cricket was in those days!

That was a great 21 minutes, thanks.

Gatting’s catch, at what is probably best described as a leg silly point, definitely being the highlight.

Bob bowled even better to nearly repeat his Headingley heroics two years later:

https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/16944/scorecard/63344/england-vs-new-zealand-2nd-test-new-zealand-tour-of-england-1983

But the target was smaller and he had feeble support from the other end.

SandyRentool said:

The fact that Bozo has to shoehorn the phrase 'One Nation' into every other sentence is clear evidence that he is not a One Nation Conservative.

He's whatever the hell he thinks the punters want him to be, Sandy. You know that.

handandmouse said:

Interesting thread about poll turnout weighting: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200384070180866

They've applied the "Millennials and Cold" turnout filter...

kinabalu said:

Black_Rook said:

The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.

It's called good politics, not cheating.

SandyRentool said:

The fact that Bozo has to shoehorn the phrase 'One Nation' into every other sentence is clear evidence that he is not a One Nation Conservative.

True . This one nation guff is getting as tired as Get Brexit Done .

nico67 said:

SandyRentool said:

The fact that Bozo has to shoehorn the phrase 'One Nation' into every other sentence is clear evidence that he is not a One Nation Conservative.

True . This one nation guff is getting as tired as Get Brexit Done .

Whereas Corbyn doesn't pretend to be anything other than a hard leftist and openly reviles the moderate wing of his party...

Banterman said:

kinabalu said:

Black_Rook said:

The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.

It's called good politics, not cheating.

That's like saying a skilfully executed professional foul is good football. It may help you win the match, but it damages the sport.
This whole episode is an interesting insight into the Tory character. It's not an attractive sight.

alb1on said:

Cookie said:

Bob Willis - if you have 21 minutes to spare this evening, this is worth watching:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtPw_Ztlm_Q

I always like watching a sportsman celebrate by basically looking quite cross. No-one ever beat Bob Willis at that.

Also interesting how quiet cricket was in those days!

In the 1980s my first management job was marketing manager for Cornhill Insurance when we sponsored the tests. I can confirm that Bob Willis was capable of breaking into a broad smile. I saw him do this at a lunch where Ian Botham told the story about going out to bat with Boycott (the story related to a test in the 70s). Boycott had been doing what he always did - ignoring the interests of the team and playing at funereal pace when quick runs were needed. A young Botham, on the fall of the wicket, announced 'Don't worry lads, he'll be back in 5 minutes'. Botham went out, called a quick single, leant on his bat and watched Boycott stranded in the middle of the wicket. I did not see the original test, but Botham swore it was true and Willis wore the biggest smile I have ever seen as the story was told.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAeFm22xB7Q

@eek

They can't. But they could run a high profile piece on how they failed to secure him together with an apology for the resulting breach of their charter promise of impartiality. Something like that.

LostPassword said:

NorthCadboll said:

Jonathan said:

LostPassword said:

@Jonathan - that's my view. Johnson has made his choice. After forcing several ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party for not following the ERG line it's not credible to think that he can change tack now.

His ideological purge was brutal. People somehow overlook it. There is a denial cult forming around Boris just as potent as the Corbyn cult. Like a soap opera battered spouse, they know Boris is a bad news but hope he will come good one day despite the black eye.

Garbage! The purge by Boris was nothing compared to MacMillan's 1962 Night of the Long Knives

You're in denial. Macmillan only reshuffled his Cabinet. Johnson forced two ex-Chancellors and three more ex-Cabinet ministers out of the Parliamentary Party. There's no precedent for it in British politics.

They were told explicitly that if they didn't support the position Boris had just been overwhelmingly elected party leader on, they would have the whip removed. Even after that, they were given the opportunity to repent.

They chose to be sacked. Their choice.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Banterman said:

kinabalu said:

Black_Rook said:

The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.

It's called good politics, not cheating.

That's like saying a skilfully executed professional foul is good football. It may help you win the match, but it damages the sport.
This whole episode is an interesting insight into the Tory character. It's not an attractive sight.

You go ahead and concentrate on demonstrating attractive character traits, and we'll get on with winning and exercising political power. Deal?

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Banterman said:

kinabalu said:

Black_Rook said:

The avoidance of Neil appears, I am sorry to say, to be the product of political calculation. The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61: the Tories have the bulk of the likely TV audience for the thing in the bag already. I suspect that most of the people who care about his ducking this interview are likely those atypically interested in politics (a small section of the electorate) and committed Labour supporters who were hoping to tune in to see the PM get a drubbing.

As I suggested earlier, any possible advantage for Boris Johnson in trying to argue his case on TV is outweighed by the potential for gaffes to be turned into ten-second video clips and spread all over social media.

You can make a perfectly reasonable argument that all of this amounts to his dodging scrutiny or being chicken, but in terms purely of political advantage his steering well clear of the interview is probably a wise choice. That's the reality of it.

In other words if you are allowed to cheat in a contest with so much at stake you will cheat.

The fact is that he is shirking the most demanding TV engagement of the campaign when all the other party leaders have done it.

This is a Bad Thing that should not be celebrated. The Beeb is to blame. It should do something to rectify.

It's called good politics, not cheating.

That's like saying a skilfully executed professional foul is good football. It may help you win the match, but it damages the sport.
This whole episode is an interesting insight into the Tory character. It's not an attractive sight.

Most of the World thinks a skilfully executed professional foul is good football since it may help you win the match, There are countless examples like Maradonna's handball

eek said:

Chris said:

handandmouse said:

Interesting thread about poll turnout weighting: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200384070180866

Showing the size of the Tory lead is very dependent on how turnout is treated.

Yep - because if you use the 2017 actual voting ratios

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200398729220096

which is a 7% gap and a 7% gap is hung Parliament territory.

And youth registration is even up on 2017.

kinabalu said:

Banterman said:

It's called good politics, not cheating.

It's both.

Lib Dems good politics/cheating in the Esher ground game
Tories good politics/cheating in the Neill interview
Labour good politics/cheating leaking out sensitive/secret documents on the NHS

eek said:

How does the BBC force Boris to appear on TV?

That's easy. they point a camera at him. Getting him to do an interview with Andrew Neil is an entirely different challenge

StuartDickson said:

Casino_Royale said:

StuartDickson said:

malcolmg said:

StuartDickson said:

MarqueeMark said:

StuartDickson said:

Stocky said:

I enjoy your posts - they focus on the betting.
How many total SNP seats do you reckon?

Low 40s.

If pushed for an exact figure: 41.

(If I’m miles out, in my defence, there are a hell of a lot of marginals.)

I reckon trying to pick the Scottish seats is the trickiest aspect of this election by miles. Tories could be anywhere from 3 to 16.

Tories could be anywhere from 4 to 20.

Would you like a wager they are nowhere near 20

I don’t think they’ll be anywhere near 20. It would mean them winning seats like Argyll and Bute, Central Ayrshire, East Lothian, Edinburgh North and Leith, Edinburgh South West, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, Lanark and Hamilton East, Linlithgow and East Falkirk, Midlothian, North Ayrshire and Arran or Paisley and North Renfrewshire.

Those are all profoundly unlikely. But just imagine if:

- SNP supporters fail to turn out
- the SLD vote utterly collapses and goes straight to SCon
- SLab vote halves, with most going straight to SCon
- The SCons have wonderful differential turnout
- Yes voters vote Green where there is a Green PPC

Any of those things are feasible. In a nightmare scenario, all could happen.

20 is their absolute dream upper limit. I’m not saying that that is what I expect to happen.

I think James Kanga’ is on record as once saying to Ruth Davidson in a psephological presentation, “one day, you’ll win 20 seats.”

She said; “no way.”

She was right. She never will.

Though there's an outside chance that the party that's been infested with the xenophobes, bigots and Brexiteers that she sneakily but assiduosly courted might do it, so Ruth will have done her bit if it ever cane to pass.

Given their seeming focus and message, will a Lib Dem membership card be mandatory at Wimbledon this year ?!

GIN1138 said:

nico67 said:

If Ipsos Mori can put out these leadership ratings why on earth can they just not poll for voter intention in the same poll .

Because George Osborne is paying to have it in the Evening Standard tomorrow?

Sounds plausible. I don't see any reason to expect a big change over the 9-10 level we've been seeing - nothing much has happened for a few days that I can see to change many minds.

HYUFD said:

eek said:

Chris said:

handandmouse said:

Interesting thread about poll turnout weighting: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200384070180866

Showing the size of the Tory lead is very dependent on how turnout is treated.

Yep - because if you use the 2017 actual voting ratios

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202200398729220096

which is a 7% gap and a 7% gap is hung Parliament territory.

No a 7% gap is what Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority and what Major got in 1992 when he won a majority

7% could just about be hung parliament territory but probably not. 6% probably would be. FWIW I think the lead is about 9-10% and the Tories will win a majority of about 40.

I think a 7% lead would give a Tory majority. The Lib Dems don't look like they're getting particularly far into the Tory foothills and the Tories look as if though they're resisting the SNP in Scotland OK.
Which means any sort of swing from Labour starts reaping net dividends very quickly.

nico67 said:

If Ipsos Mori can put out these leadership ratings why on earth can they just not poll for voter intention in the same poll .

They probably have, but it’s under embargo for another couple of hours.

another_richard said:

alb1on said:

Cookie said:

Bob Willis - if you have 21 minutes to spare this evening, this is worth watching:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtPw_Ztlm_Q

I always like watching a sportsman celebrate by basically looking quite cross. No-one ever beat Bob Willis at that.

Also interesting how quiet cricket was in those days!

In the 1980s my first management job was marketing manager for Cornhill Insurance when we sponsored the tests. I can confirm that Bob Willis was capable of breaking into a broad smile. I saw him do this at a lunch where Ian Botham told the story about going out to bat with Boycott (the story related to a test in the 70s). Boycott had been doing what he always did - ignoring the interests of the team and playing at funereal pace when quick runs were needed. A young Botham, on the fall of the wicket, announced 'Don't worry lads, he'll be back in 5 minutes'. Botham went out, called a quick single, leant on his bat and watched Boycott stranded in the middle of the wicket. I did not see the original test, but Botham swore it was true and Willis wore the biggest smile I have ever seen as the story was told.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAeFm22xB7Q

Wonderful. I had not seen that film. Botham was a law unto himself. I remember that he had a contract with (I think) Nike and, after he came back from a short 'rest' due to having been found with some dope in the Windies, Nike prepared an advertising campaign with the tag line 'Botham's back on the grass'. He was all for it, but they chickened out.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Stocky said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Where have you been. Boris has had wall to wall media coverage over the last few days and debates with Corbyn live on BBC on Friday evening

Yes he has ducked Neil so far but do you think any of the voters even care. It would be different if he was hiding which he isn't

I am a voter. I care.

Yes, but maybe you care because of the type of questions that Neil would level at him, i.e. questions designed to embarrass rather than to enlighten?

Not really, I just think he should be subjected to proper scrutiny like the other party leaders. If you Tories had more faith in him you'd be happy for him to do it. You obviously don't, yet you think he is fit to run the country. It's absurd.

He had a head to head debate with the Leader of the Opposition? are you saying the Leader of the Opposition was incapable of holding him to account?

Cameron always refused a debate with Andrew Neil. So did Blair and Brown from memory. I can't remember any of them agreeing to one during an election campaign. Funny that!

Where does everyone think interest rates are going to go ?

(Re)Mortgage provider offering me (With £999 fee)

1.39% 2 years
1.64% 3 years
1.69% 5 years
2.69% 10 years.

The trackers are +0.84% 2 years, +1.44% 5 years