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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer starting to pull away in the Corbyn successor betting
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If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he would then get his chance to become LD leader and appeal to centrist voters Labour have abandoned
Especially if Labour keep it fairly close in 10 days time, it will be one more heave strategy with a leader without all the baggage of Jezza.
I think electability will trump gender. It's happening in America, Warren fading behind two blokes. So without one woman to get behind Keir might assume the moderates and the electability votes.
A question, for the Lib Dems, can Chuka be party leader if he loses his seat? Will they want him if so?
Also, does Starmer end up being Neil Kinnock? Rebuilds the party and detoxifies the brand which takes ages, then loses the election? Who is John Smith?
On the London poll on the last thread, isn't the position that Labour was actually doing worse (relatively) in London than elsewhere in terms of falling share (mainly because of the LD surge) and they've now pulled into line? I suspect that differential turnout mobilisation will be more significant in London than elsewhere, since it's easier to have 500 members working effectively in a London seat than in somewhere like High Peak.
I'd like to see an Yvette Cooper leadership with the likes of Hilary Benn and Ed Miliband among the top roles.
I think Labour have a potential front bench currently sat on the backbenches which would be 10% ahead in the polls right now.
He's one of my lower results in the betting, I wouldn't rule out McDonnell personally.
Starmer is not a Blairite, he will not be returning Labour to the centre.
Even though Starmer is entirely built on a golden spoon background and is a much use as a pink lemon.
Could be LAB maj 150 in 2024!
Next, I think the length of the contest matters, and within that the constituency that will be voting. For example, would there be an acting leader for a while and how long will you have had to be a member/supporter to get a vote?
CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!
Any vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!
Also, the SNP surge was a spectacular event which probs would've scuppered any Labour leader at that point.
Labour is now the only major party that has never had a woman leader and the pressure to find one will be intense.
None of their leading female MPs impress me much though.
Turns out it was Rosy Cobb, the LibDem's head of press. Ooooooops.
https://order-order.com/2019/12/03/libdem-head-press-rosy-cobb-suspended-party/
I had to look quite hard before I spotted a picture of SuperJo
Outside of that cannot see Starmer, Cooper, or Piddock. Maybe Raynor one day, but not yet. Need to look more broadly and give a few newer MP's a chance to make the case for themselves see if someone rises to the top.
We respond better on here if there's at least an attempt at logical argument.
Remember if they do lose the election the membership won't be blaming Corbyn they will blame dirty tricks and the media. The former members and the voters see him as the problem but they don't get a say.
This phenomenon is spreading outside central london to other parts of the capital now.
But he's not going to bring the party to the centre again, he isn't a Blairite. Anyone thinking he's going to be very centrist hasn't read much of his past or views. He'll be somewhere between Ed and Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1201799051227934720?s=20
https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1201588655204241415
And....I think the way the wind appears to be blowing, the Lib Dem taking a left-centre social and a centre / centre-right economic party is going to struggle.
We've had three times in the last century where there was a landslide because the opposition [after the election] was utterly unelectable and incapable of being elected: 1931, 1945 and 1997. The opposition was elected after that 14, 14 and 13 years later respectively.
So perhaps we're due a Labour government by 2033? Fingers crossed that will be long enough to get themselves to sort themselves out.
Remainers: Cons lose 6% to Labour, gain 2%
Net gain: Cons 16% - an 8% swing from Labour to Con.
An average 8%. It's going to be lumpy as all hell....
Models today look, erm, interesting to say the least.
Basic round up here:
https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9961-cold-snowy-general-election-day-next-week-a-possibility-according-to-the-weather-models
My 2nd choice would be Jess Phillips.
Then Labour recovered by taking on Militant under Kinnock then New Labour under Blair, had it not the SDP could have overtaken it being just 2% behind in 1983.
If the LDs get a leader from Labour like Roy Jenkins was e.g. Umunna with no connection to the Coalition then Labour is doomed if it embraces Momentum further rather than taking it on
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7664323/Mobility-scooter-user-powers-rising-floods-Sheffield.html
Most Remainers are not going to vote Tory now regardless, ignore Leavers and it will be the Brexit Party gaining at Tories expense
Tory 60+ majority labour sub 200
We'll be fighting Rejoin. If anybody can still be arsed to make the case....
Either way I'd estimate there will be approx 1m Lab to Con leave movers in line with what a lot of the polling suggests, that is going to be 2,000+ people in each constituency in the North and Midlands then the gains will be substantial.
And, to be fair, they are also mercifully short...
(ducks, runs out of door)
I am on Ryanair website now looking at the flight options.
1/ Not a woman
2/ Not really in the cabal
3/ Sufficiently in the cabal to not be trusted
4/ Oily
I do think he's the best Labour have got, but that's not saying much, and for the reasons above I can't see him getting the job.
Corbyn won't go anyway. He'll hang on whatever the result. Even McDonnell knows this.
Elections are about winning power. What is best for the country is how you exercise power. And Leaving is about being able to democratically control that. Its all integrated. If you want the best for the country then you need to be able to get the best to exercise the leavers of power and kick them out if they're no good.
Almost a third of voters now say they will vote tactically in the election, according to polling carried out for the Electoral Reform Society (ERS), with the proportion rising rapidly.
The polling by BMG found 30% of people said they would be “voting for the best-positioned party/candidate to keep out another party/candidate that I dislike” on 12 December. This is up from 22% saying this at the start of the election campaign, and 24% in a parallel poll last week.
Only 51% of people said they would pick “the candidate/party I most prefer, regardless of how likely they are to win”.
Don't think Southron posters appreciate how vulnerable SNP will be over 'elf and edukayshon in the run up to the 2021 SP elections.