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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer starting to pull away in the Corbyn successor betting

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  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!

    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!

    Any vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    What if I want a hard left CORBYNISTA government?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!
    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!
    Ay vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    You're on the wrong site.
    We respond better on here if there's at least an attempt at logical argument.
    Fuck off. Ave It is a great PB institution.
    How would you know, you've only been around since May.
    I lurked during my peak modelling years. As I've told you many times.
    I'm not entirely convinced that you could keep your gob shut for years, regardless of the gruelling schedule of underpant wearing.
    I don't think anyone believes the underpant modelling story anymore.
    It's less convincing than Robert Del Naja denying he is Banksy - at least Robert can blame other band members.
    Why does it bleedin' matter? I fail to understand why any of you give a single tiny cosmonautical fuck who I really am. It's not like we're in a boring period of politics where there's nowt else to discuss!
    Move on, fanbois. Move on.
    It matters because this is a discussion site and you are posting stuff here that is quite obviously untrue. If you want to stay anonymous just make political comment and don’t say anything about your life.
    Er, I'll do what the fuck I like...
    Of course you will. So accord everyone else the same privilege of expressing their opinions about you.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    camel said:

    camel said:

    On topic, clearly Laura Pidcock should be the next Labour Leader. Apart from her socialist credentials and spunky personality, Laura has a masters degree in disaster management which might prove handy.

    It clearly has to be a woman. Long Bailey is a charisma vacuum and Rayner, for all her many attributes and her great back story, isn't as intellectually capable as Pidcock or Long Bailey.

    Shes at very high risk of losing her seat. The Kantar poll today for example would see her lose by a few %. I think shes a goner
    Well if Pidcock does lose her seat, that's meltdown territoriy and I think we'd be looking at 2 election cycles to see another Labour PM. It will be a shame for her, I think she's good and will get better.
    Perfect excuse to get her into a really safe seat at a by-election or next GE
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    Wondering if I should pop some money on LDs gaining Guildford

    Yes IMO.
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    Just received a Tory leaflet in Windsor for Adam Afriyie (the local MP).
    3 Priorities listed are

    Fighting Heathrow expansion
    Protecting against flooding
    Defending local vibrant economy

    There is no mention of Brexit at all, which I find strange as he was a spartan voting against May's deal.

    It's almost as though he is ashamed of it.....



  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    rpjs said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!

    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!

    Any vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    What if I want a hard left CORBYNISTA government?
    Then you'd be an idiot.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    edited December 2019

    I don't see Starmer laying a glove on Boris.....

    Much depends not so much on who Labour choose as leader but on how Johnson takes to being PM with a majority. Will he continue with "Boris" and all the brittle bluster, the facetious clowning around, the relentless lying that appears to be mandatory with that? Or will he kind of settle into things and assume some gravitas and dignity? Will he grow up a bit?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,755
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not doing so well in Scotland, needless to say. Falling behind mitteleuropa in maths and science. Be interesting to see how much coverage the stats get in the Scottish press given Nicola's pledge that it is her number one priority and the pride Scots take in education.

    Don't think Southron posters appreciate how vulnerable SNP will be over 'elf and edukayshon in the run up to the 2021 SP elections.
    Shame it doesn't count for a hill of turnips against the call for Yet Another Bloody Referendum in 2019 though....
    Tory frothers getting agitated that SNP are ever more popular , who would have thought it. What a pair of sour pusses. Have a look at your lying cheating party, UK in the toilet , English NHS crap, tuition fees, food banks , homeless , I could go on for hours yet you idiots whine about a miniscule of a % drop in an average.
    Afternoon, Malc. Scotland now behind Latvia and Slovenia in maths and drifting further behind England generally. Don't think Miss Jean Brodie would be impressed.
  • camel said:

    camel said:

    On topic, clearly Laura Pidcock should be the next Labour Leader. Apart from her socialist credentials and spunky personality, Laura has a masters degree in disaster management which might prove handy.

    It clearly has to be a woman. Long Bailey is a charisma vacuum and Rayner, for all her many attributes and her great back story, isn't as intellectually capable as Pidcock or Long Bailey.

    Is it just me or does Long Bailey look and sound like a refugee from a Wallace and Gromit movie? Sorry if that is ungallant but we have to be realistic in this forum. She is completely incredible as a potential PM.
    I'm a Manc, and her accent is grating to me. There are loads of great regional accents in the north, but she has developed a very exaggerated one.
    Rebecca Long Vowels. I hate long vowels. Not sure how they go down generally.
    It's weird because most people in Manchester speak with quite short flat vowels, I guess that is why it sounds off to me. Her Wiki page says she went to school in Chester, so could be some plastic Scouser vowels creeping in.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!
    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!
    Ay vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    You're on the wrong site.
    We respond better on here if there's at least an attempt at logical argument.
    Fuck off. Ave It is a great PB institution.
    How would you know, you've only been around since May.
    I lurked during my peak modelling years. As I've told you many times.
    I'm not entirely convinced that you could keep your gob shut for years, regardless of the gruelling schedule of underpant wearing.
    I don't think anyone believes the underpant modelling story anymore.
    It's less convincing than Robert Del Naja denying he is Banksy - at least Robert can blame other band members.
    Why does it bleedin' matter? I fail to understand why any of you give a single tiny cosmonautical fuck who I really am. It's not like we're in a boring period of politics where there's nowt else to discuss!
    Move on, fanbois. Move on.
    It matters because this is a discussion site and you are posting stuff here that is quite obviously untrue. If you want to stay anonymous just make political comment and don’t say anything about your life.
    Er, I'll do what the fuck I like...
    Of course you will. So accord everyone else the same privilege of expressing their opinions about you.
    *blue steel*
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Wondering if I should pop some money on LDs gaining Guildford

    Yes IMO.
    Make it a small bet. Lots of LD second places in SE. Lots of CON first places.

  • Any polls due today? Or do we wait for tomorrow's MRP?
  • IanB2 said:

    It matters because this is a discussion site ....

    It is? When did that start? Is it a new Vanilla feature?? :D:D
  • Byronic said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!
    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!
    Ay vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    You're on the wrong site.
    We respond better on here if there's at least an attempt at logical argument.
    Fuck off. Ave It is a great PB institution.
    How would you know, you've only been around since May.
    I lurked during my peak modelling years. As I've told you many times.
    I'm not entirely convinced that you could keep your gob shut for years, regardless of the gruelling schedule of underpant wearing.
    I don't think anyone believes the underpant modelling story anymore.
    It's less convincing than Robert Del Naja denying he is Banksy - at least Robert can blame other band members.
    Why does it bleedin' matter? I fail to understand why any of you give a single tiny cosmonautical fuck who I really am. It's not like we're in a boring period of politics where there's nowt else to discuss!
    Move on, fanbois. Move on.
    It matters because this is a discussion site and you are posting stuff here that is quite obviously untrue. If you want to stay anonymous just make political comment and don’t say anything about your life.
    Er, I'll do what the fuck I like...
    Of course you will. So accord everyone else the same privilege of expressing their opinions about you.
    *blue steel*
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbKBWtoH93Q
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Any polls due today? Or do we wait for tomorrow's MRP?

    It’s an expensive habit....
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,755
    Ave_it said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not doing so well in Scotland, needless to say. Falling behind mitteleuropa in maths and science. Be interesting to see how much coverage the stats get in the Scottish press given Nicola's pledge that it is her number one priority and the pride Scots take in education.

    Don't think Southron posters appreciate how vulnerable SNP will be over 'elf and edukayshon in the run up to the 2021 SP elections.
    Shame it doesn't count for a hill of turnips against the call for Yet Another Bloody Referendum in 2019 though....
    Tory frothers getting agitated that SNP are ever more popular , who would have thought it. What a pair of sour pusses. Have a look at your lying cheating party, UK in the toilet , English NHS crap, tuition fees, food banks , homeless , I could go on for hours yet you idiots whine about a miniscule of a % drop in an average.
    CON gain Argyll & Bute?
    Not impossible. The Sturgeon pledge to scrap Trident and close Faslane would be pretty traumatic for that end of the constituency (Helensburgh etc).
  • Any polls due today? Or do we wait for tomorrow's MRP?

    Hopefully a YouGov.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!
    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!
    Ay vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    You're on the wrong site.
    We respond better on here if there's at least an attempt at logical argument.
    Fuck off. Ave It is a great PB institution.
    How would you know, you've only been around since May.
    I lurked during my peak modelling years. As I've told you many times.
    I'm not entirely convinced that you could keep your gob shut for years, regardless of the gruelling schedule of underpant wearing.
    I don't think anyone believes the underpant modelling story anymore.
    It's less convincing than Robert Del Naja denying he is Banksy - at least Robert can blame other band members.
    Why does it bleedin' matter? I fail to understand why any of you give a single tiny cosmonautical fuck who I really am. It's not like we're in a boring period of politics where there's nowt else to discuss!
    Move on, fanbois. Move on.
    It matters because this is a discussion site and you are posting stuff here that is quite obviously untrue. If you want to stay anonymous just make political comment and don’t say anything about your life.
    Er, I'll do what the fuck I like...
    Of course you will. So accord everyone else the same privilege of expressing their opinions about you.
    *blue steel*
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbKBWtoH93Q
    What a magnificent film that is. It's one of the reasons I went into male modelling. Inspiring.
  • llef said:

    Just received a Tory leaflet in Windsor for Adam Afriyie (the local MP).
    3 Priorities listed are

    Fighting Heathrow expansion
    Protecting against flooding
    Defending local vibrant economy

    There is no mention of Brexit at all, which I find strange as he was a spartan voting against May's deal.

    It's almost as though he is ashamed of it.....



    Well he should get plenty of support on Heathrow from his Party Leader, who promised to lie down in front of the bulldozers!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Byronic said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!
    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!
    Ay vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    You're on the wrong site.
    We respond better on here if there's at least an attempt at logical argument.
    Fuck off. Ave It is a great PB institution.
    How would you know, you've only been around since May.
    I lurked during my peak modelling years. As I've told you many times.
    I'm not entirely convinced that you could keep your gob shut for years, regardless of the gruelling schedule of underpant wearing.
    I don't think anyone believes the underpant modelling story anymore.
    It's less convincing than Robert Del Naja denying he is Banksy - at least Robert can blame other band members.
    Why does it bleedin' matter? I fail to understand why any of you give a single tiny cosmonautical fuck who I really am. It's not like we're in a boring period of politics where there's nowt else to discuss!
    Move on, fanbois. Move on.
    It matters because this is a discussion site and you are posting stuff here that is quite obviously untrue. If you want to stay anonymous just make political comment and don’t say anything about your life.
    Er, I'll do what the fuck I like...
    Of course you will. So accord everyone else the same privilege of expressing their opinions about you.
    *blue steel*
    Polka Dot Bandit.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    llef said:

    Just received a Tory leaflet in Windsor for Adam Afriyie (the local MP).
    3 Priorities listed are

    Fighting Heathrow expansion
    Protecting against flooding
    Defending local vibrant economy

    There is no mention of Brexit at all, which I find strange as he was a spartan voting against May's deal.

    It's almost as though he is ashamed of it.....



    Nothing wrong with tailoring your message to your constituency. My issue is when you lie to your constituents such as Ed Miliband claiming he's continually voted for Brexit.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Any polls due today? Or do we wait for tomorrow's MRP?

    Hopefully a YouGov.
    Hopefully one with CON at least 10% clear.

    Is there another MRP tomorrow??

  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not doing so well in Scotland, needless to say. Falling behind mitteleuropa in maths and science. Be interesting to see how much coverage the stats get in the Scottish press given Nicola's pledge that it is her number one priority and the pride Scots take in education.

    Don't think Southron posters appreciate how vulnerable SNP will be over 'elf and edukayshon in the run up to the 2021 SP elections.
    Shame it doesn't count for a hill of turnips against the call for Yet Another Bloody Referendum in 2019 though....
    Tory frothers getting agitated that SNP are ever more popular , who would have thought it. What a pair of sour pusses. Have a look at your lying cheating party, UK in the toilet , English NHS crap, tuition fees, food banks , homeless , I could go on for hours yet you idiots whine about a miniscule of a % drop in an average.
    Afternoon, Malc. Scotland now behind Latvia and Slovenia in maths and drifting further behind England generally. Don't think Miss Jean Brodie would be impressed.
    They're doing alright on health though, So Dr Finlay will be delighted. Unless that claim turns out to be a load of Trossachs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    llef said:

    Just received a Tory leaflet in Windsor for Adam Afriyie (the local MP).
    3 Priorities listed are

    Fighting Heathrow expansion
    Protecting against flooding
    Defending local vibrant economy

    There is no mention of Brexit at all, which I find strange as he was a spartan voting against May's deal.

    It's almost as though he is ashamed of it.....



    Well he should get plenty of support on Heathrow from his Party Leader, who promised to lie down in front of the bulldozers!
    There weren’t any in Afghanistan when he was there.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Will the Momentum LP ever vote for a knight of the realm? And one who so regularly got shafted by his own leadership?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Aberdeen South is more vulnerable than Banff, the only Scottish seat to vote leave.

    Read somewhere that Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross might have voted for leave. Ironic as it has a LibDem MP.
    True according to Hanretty actually. Banff was the 'most leave' though. West Aberdeen Kincardine surprisingly remain too.
    My "shock" result of the election is Con gain CSER. The Caithness section of the seat just looks so much like the sort of place that could dramatically switch to the Tories. However even I would be shocked if it happened!
    Wouldn't be much of a "shock" result if you weren't! :-)
  • llef said:

    Just received a Tory leaflet in Windsor for Adam Afriyie (the local MP).
    3 Priorities listed are

    Fighting Heathrow expansion
    Protecting against flooding
    Defending local vibrant economy

    There is no mention of Brexit at all, which I find strange as he was a spartan voting against May's deal.

    It's almost as though he is ashamed of it.....



    So he should be ashamed - Windsor voted 53% Remain. Could be that he's detected a formidable Lib Dem surge.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Omnium said:

    rpjs said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!

    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!

    Any vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    What if I want a hard left CORBYNISTA government?
    Then you'd be an idiot.
    A number of posters on here forget that to a not insignificant group in society Corbyn represents no threat because the deal they have nothing to lose, this group is not the same as the so called left behind working class who could lose their brexit and believe The Mail etc. branding people as idiots is not a good starting point to winning them over, they just have a different perspective to those who believe Corbyn will be disastrous.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    llef said:

    Just received a Tory leaflet in Windsor for Adam Afriyie (the local MP).
    3 Priorities listed are

    Fighting Heathrow expansion
    Protecting against flooding
    Defending local vibrant economy

    There is no mention of Brexit at all, which I find strange as he was a spartan voting against May's deal.

    It's almost as though he is ashamed of it.....



    So he should be ashamed - Windsor voted 53% Remain. Could be that he's detected a formidable Lib Dem surge.
    Today's Darlington Tory leaflet is the same

    More GPs
    Revitalise the Town Centre (Good luck there)
    More Police (possibly)

    No mention of Brexit just a desire for a none hung Parliament.

  • kinabalu said:

    I don't see Starmer laying a glove on Boris.....

    Much depends not so much on who Labour choose as leader but on how Johnson takes to being PM with a majority. Will he continue with "Boris" and all the brittle bluster, the facetious clowning around, the relentless lying that appears to be mandatory with that? Or will he kind of settle into things and assume some gravitas and dignity? Will he grow up a bit?
    Yes, no and no.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    I missed this. Time to plan for the tub of lard again.
    Channel 4 cleared of bias for replacing PM with ice block in debate
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/03/channel-4-cleared-of-bias-for-replacing-pm-with-ice-block-in-debate
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited December 2019

    Any polls due today? Or do we wait for tomorrow's MRP?

    We usually get the regular YouGov VI on a Tuesday I think and we've still not seen that MORI that was in the works at the end of last week.
  • nichomar said:

    Omnium said:

    rpjs said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!

    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!

    Any vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    What if I want a hard left CORBYNISTA government?
    Then you'd be an idiot.
    A number of posters on here forget that to a not insignificant group in society Corbyn represents no threat because the deal they have nothing to lose, this group is not the same as the so called left behind working class who could lose their brexit and believe The Mail etc. branding people as idiots is not a good starting point to winning them over, they just have a different perspective to those who believe Corbyn will be disastrous.
    Anyone who believes in the benefits of a Corbyn government are as dumb as anyone that believes in Brexit and they deserve to be called out as such.

    Believing in Father Christmas or fairies at the end of the garden are articles of faith that are less stupid than thinking there is such thing as a benign Corbyn government or an economically beneficial Brexit.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    Stocky said:

    I think MarqueeMark may have been referring to kinabalu`s cheeky insertion?
    If you`ll pardon the expression.

    I bet he was too. But I was just the slick lawyer seeing a loophole to introduce the previously inadmissible. Exactly as Kavanagh QC would have done. And what a guy he was. Remainer to his toenails yet graciously if reluctantly accepting of the need to Leave.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    camel said:

    camel said:

    On topic, clearly Laura Pidcock should be the next Labour Leader. Apart from her socialist credentials and spunky personality, Laura has a masters degree in disaster management which might prove handy.

    It clearly has to be a woman. Long Bailey is a charisma vacuum and Rayner, for all her many attributes and her great back story, isn't as intellectually capable as Pidcock or Long Bailey.

    Is it just me or does Long Bailey look and sound like a refugee from a Wallace and Gromit movie? Sorry if that is ungallant but we have to be realistic in this forum. She is completely incredible as a potential PM.
    I'm a Manc, and her accent is grating to me. There are loads of great regional accents in the north, but she has developed a very exaggerated one.
    Rebecca Long Vowels. I hate long vowels. Not sure how they go down generally.
    It's weird because most people in Manchester speak with quite short flat vowels, I guess that is why it sounds off to me. Her Wiki page says she went to school in Chester, so could be some plastic Scouser vowels creeping in.
    ..
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Omnium said:

    rpjs said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!

    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!

    Any vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    What if I want a hard left CORBYNISTA government?
    Then you'd be an idiot.
    A number of posters on here forget that to a not insignificant group in society Corbyn represents no threat because the deal they have nothing to lose, this group is not the same as the so called left behind working class who could lose their brexit and believe The Mail etc. branding people as idiots is not a good starting point to winning them over, they just have a different perspective to those who believe Corbyn will be disastrous.
    Anyone who believes in the benefits of a Corbyn government are as dumb as anyone that believes in Brexit and they deserve to be called out as such.

    Believing in Father Christmas or fairies at the end of the garden are articles of faith that are less stupid than thinking there is such thing as a benign Corbyn government or an economically beneficial Brexit.
    I was trying to suggest that it may be better trying to point out that the perceived benefits of some of what is on offer from labour will disappear due to their other policies without that being carefully explained many will just see it as the haves defending what they have at the expense of the have nots.
  • nichomar said:

    Omnium said:

    rpjs said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!

    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!

    Any vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    What if I want a hard left CORBYNISTA government?
    Then you'd be an idiot.
    A number of posters on here forget that to a not insignificant group in society Corbyn represents no threat because the deal they have nothing to lose, this group is not the same as the so called left behind working class who could lose their brexit and believe The Mail etc. branding people as idiots is not a good starting point to winning them over, they just have a different perspective to those who believe Corbyn will be disastrous.
    Anyone who believes in the benefits of a Corbyn government are as dumb as anyone that believes in Brexit and they deserve to be called out as such.

    Believing in Father Christmas or fairies at the end of the garden are articles of faith that are less stupid than thinking there is such thing as a benign Corbyn government or an economically beneficial Brexit.
    You're going to be so distraught when Brexit happens and the roof doesn't cave in aren't you?
    The difference between Brexit and Corbyn is there's never been a Marxist country that has succeeded whereas there are a large number of successful countries outside of the EU, growing faster than those inside it.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    It's laughable to think the far Left Labour membership will vote for Wooden Top Starmer. He's a lot smarter than Corbyn, although profoundly dull, however, the membership won't be able to manipulate him the way they do so easily with Corbyn. I reckon they'll go for Pillock. Unelectable, of course, but she ticks a few boxes and she's as barking mad as Corbyn.
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174
    eek said:

    llef said:

    Just received a Tory leaflet in Windsor for Adam Afriyie (the local MP).
    3 Priorities listed are

    Fighting Heathrow expansion
    Protecting against flooding
    Defending local vibrant economy

    There is no mention of Brexit at all, which I find strange as he was a spartan voting against May's deal.

    It's almost as though he is ashamed of it.....



    So he should be ashamed - Windsor voted 53% Remain. Could be that he's detected a formidable Lib Dem surge.
    Today's Darlington Tory leaflet is the same

    More GPs
    Revitalise the Town Centre (Good luck there)
    More Police (possibly)

    No mention of Brexit just a desire for a none hung Parliament.

    Same as for Ranil in NE Hampshire. Leaflet in the post addressed to me. No mention of Boris or Brexit just a focus on "local issues" (housebuilding, roads, schools, GPs, etc) and a warning about hung Parliament / Corbyn if you vote Lib Dem. Seems like a CCHQ "template" approach in (very) safe Tory seats to me i.e. token effort not really required.

    Haven't noticed any posters from any party in any windows ... just a couple of Ranil billboards in the local farmers' fields. MRP says he'll lose some vote share to the Lib Dems but I doubt it ... the mood here is very Leavey and very anti-Corbyn (obv.).

    I'm meeting a mate for lunch tomorrow - he's involved with coordinating the Lib Dem effort in Winchester so l'll report back with any nuggets of info. from the front line.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Omnium said:

    rpjs said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!

    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!

    Any vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    What if I want a hard left CORBYNISTA government?
    Then you'd be an idiot.
    A number of posters on here forget that to a not insignificant group in society Corbyn represents no threat because the deal they have nothing to lose, this group is not the same as the so called left behind working class who could lose their brexit and believe The Mail etc. branding people as idiots is not a good starting point to winning them over, they just have a different perspective to those who believe Corbyn will be disastrous.
    Anyone who believes in the benefits of a Corbyn government are as dumb as anyone that believes in Brexit and they deserve to be called out as such.

    Believing in Father Christmas or fairies at the end of the garden are articles of faith that are less stupid than thinking there is such thing as a benign Corbyn government or an economically beneficial Brexit.
    I was trying to suggest that it may be better trying to point out that the perceived benefits of some of what is on offer from labour will disappear due to their other policies without that being carefully explained many will just see it as the haves defending what they have at the expense of the have nots.
    This is a fair point. I've got quite smart friends who simply don't understand how or why Corbyn's plans are "expensive". They don't grasp basic economics. Or wilfully refuse to understand.

    It's a kind of faith-based reaction.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    I think MarqueeMark may have been referring to kinabalu`s cheeky insertion?
    If you`ll pardon the expression.

    I bet he was too. But I was just the slick lawyer seeing a loophole to introduce the previously inadmissible. Exactly as Kavanagh QC would have done. And what a guy he was. Remainer to his toenails yet graciously if reluctantly accepting of the need to Leave.
    Your cheeky insertion is pardoned. Just don't make a habit of it....
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Jason said:

    It's laughable to think the far Left Labour membership will vote for Wooden Top Starmer. He's a lot smarter than Corbyn, although profoundly dull, however, the membership won't be able to manipulate him the way they do so easily with Corbyn. I reckon they'll go for Pillock. Unelectable, of course, but she ticks a few boxes and she's as barking mad as Corbyn.

    I think that's pretty much spot on.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    edited December 2019
    camel said:

    The correct euphemism is 'Churchillian" which I doubt Johnson would seek to deny.

    He would luv it. And why not? The Great Man was a national hero, no question. Although would we have won in 43 if he had stayed off the bottle? Probably not but it would have been nice to have found out.

    Anyway, you and I, the atm highly select grouping who detect something special about Laura P. In a few years everyone will be claiming they saw it. Just like with Thatcher.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    camel said:

    camel said:

    On topic, clearly Laura Pidcock should be the next Labour Leader. Apart from her socialist credentials and spunky personality, Laura has a masters degree in disaster management which might prove handy.

    It clearly has to be a woman. Long Bailey is a charisma vacuum and Rayner, for all her many attributes and her great back story, isn't as intellectually capable as Pidcock or Long Bailey.

    Is it just me or does Long Bailey look and sound like a refugee from a Wallace and Gromit movie? Sorry if that is ungallant but we have to be realistic in this forum. She is completely incredible as a potential PM.
    I'm a Manc, and her accent is grating to me. There are loads of great regional accents in the north, but she has developed a very exaggerated one.
    Rebecca Long Vowels. I hate long vowels. Not sure how they go down generally.
    It's weird because most people in Manchester speak with quite short flat vowels, I guess that is why it sounds off to me. Her Wiki page says she went to school in Chester, so could be some plastic Scouser vowels creeping in.
    Chester accent is a weird mix of Scouse, Manc and Welsh.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Jason said:

    It's laughable to think the far Left Labour membership will vote for Wooden Top Starmer. He's a lot smarter than Corbyn, although profoundly dull, however, the membership won't be able to manipulate him the way they do so easily with Corbyn. I reckon they'll go for Pillock. Unelectable, of course, but she ticks a few boxes and she's as barking mad as Corbyn.

    I think that's pretty much spot on.
    The chicks like him
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kinabalu said:

    camel said:

    The correct euphemism is 'Churchillian" which I doubt Johnson would seek to deny.

    He would luv it. And why not? The Great Man was a national hero, no question. Although would we have won in 43 if he had stayed off the bottle? Probably not but it would have been nice to have found out.

    Anyway, you and I, the atm highly select grouping who detect something special about Laura P. In a few years everyone will be claiming they saw it. Just like with Thatcher.
    I just watched a video of Pidcock speaking.

    She's Labour's version of Jo Swinson, right down to the chunky figure and weirdly big teeth. Personally I find her quite likeable, if unexciting, like Swinson; I wonder if she will annoy others - like Swinson.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    I think MarqueeMark may have been referring to kinabalu`s cheeky insertion?
    If you`ll pardon the expression.

    I bet he was too. But I was just the slick lawyer seeing a loophole to introduce the previously inadmissible. Exactly as Kavanagh QC would have done. And what a guy he was. Remainer to his toenails yet graciously if reluctantly accepting of the need to Leave.
    Your cheeky insertion is pardoned. Just don't make a habit of it....
    glug, glug
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Omnium said:

    rpjs said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!

    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!

    Any vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    What if I want a hard left CORBYNISTA government?
    Then you'd be an idiot.
    A number of posters on here forget that to a not insignificant group in society Corbyn represents no threat because the deal they have nothing to lose, this group is not the same as the so called left behind working class who could lose their brexit and believe The Mail etc. branding people as idiots is not a good starting point to winning them over, they just have a different perspective to those who believe Corbyn will be disastrous.
    Anyone who believes in the benefits of a Corbyn government are as dumb as anyone that believes in Brexit and they deserve to be called out as such.

    Believing in Father Christmas or fairies at the end of the garden are articles of faith that are less stupid than thinking there is such thing as a benign Corbyn government or an economically beneficial Brexit.
    I was trying to suggest that it may be better trying to point out that the perceived benefits of some of what is on offer from labour will disappear due to their other policies without that being carefully explained many will just see it as the haves defending what they have at the expense of the have nots.
    This is a fair point. I've got quite smart friends who simply don't understand how or why Corbyn's plans are "expensive". They don't grasp basic economics. Or wilfully refuse to understand.

    It's a kind of faith-based reaction.
    Nobody actually understands economics. It's not (yet) a science. It's as clear as a red-nose on a policeman that Labour's plans are quite astray from anything that looks like economic sense though.
    What is certain is that there is no such thing as free money.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,755
    camel said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    Not doing so well in Scotland, needless to say. Falling behind mitteleuropa in maths and science. Be interesting to see how much coverage the stats get in the Scottish press given Nicola's pledge that it is her number one priority and the pride Scots take in education.

    Don't think Southron posters appreciate how vulnerable SNP will be over 'elf and edukayshon in the run up to the 2021 SP elections.
    Shame it doesn't count for a hill of turnips against the call for Yet Another Bloody Referendum in 2019 though....
    Tory frothers getting agitated that SNP are ever more popular , who would have thought it. What a pair of sour pusses. Have a look at your lying cheating party, UK in the toilet , English NHS crap, tuition fees, food banks , homeless , I could go on for hours yet you idiots whine about a miniscule of a % drop in an average.
    Afternoon, Malc. Scotland now behind Latvia and Slovenia in maths and drifting further behind England generally. Don't think Miss Jean Brodie would be impressed.
    They're doing alright on health though, So Dr Finlay will be delighted. Unless that claim turns out to be a load of Trossachs.
    Load of Cairngorms. Sick Kids Hospital in Glasgow is a disaster and people up in arms about loss of maternity units in places like Elgin and Wick.
  • novanova Posts: 692
    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Omnium said:

    rpjs said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!

    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!

    Any vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    What if I want a hard left CORBYNISTA government?
    Then you'd be an idiot.
    A number of posters on here forget that to a not insignificant group in society Corbyn represents no threat because the deal they have nothing to lose, this group is not the same as the so called left behind working class who could lose their brexit and believe The Mail etc. branding people as idiots is not a good starting point to winning them over, they just have a different perspective to those who believe Corbyn will be disastrous.
    Anyone who believes in the benefits of a Corbyn government are as dumb as anyone that believes in Brexit and they deserve to be called out as such.

    Believing in Father Christmas or fairies at the end of the garden are articles of faith that are less stupid than thinking there is such thing as a benign Corbyn government or an economically beneficial Brexit.
    I was trying to suggest that it may be better trying to point out that the perceived benefits of some of what is on offer from labour will disappear due to their other policies without that being carefully explained many will just see it as the haves defending what they have at the expense of the have nots.
    This is a fair point. I've got quite smart friends who simply don't understand how or why Corbyn's plans are "expensive". They don't grasp basic economics. Or wilfully refuse to understand.

    It's a kind of faith-based reaction.
    I'm always amazed that people who clearly value their own intelligence, cannot comprehend that other intelligent people can have a different viewpoint.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    Byronic said:

    I just watched a video of Pidcock speaking.
    She's Labour's version of Jo Swinson, right down to the chunky figure and weirdly big teeth. Personally I find her quite likeable, if unexciting, like Swinson; I wonder if she will annoy others - like Swinson.

    Must have been an off day. She can be compelling. She can hit the heights. I'll dig out an example and post it.
  • Omnium said:

    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Omnium said:

    rpjs said:

    Ave_it said:

    CAUTION!

    CORBYN could be PM in 10 days time!

    Any vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!

    What if I want a hard left CORBYNISTA government?
    Then you'd be an idiot.
    A number of posters on here forget that to a not insignificant group in society Corbyn represents no threat because the deal they have nothing to lose, this group is not the same as the so called left behind working class who could lose their brexit and believe The Mail etc. branding people as idiots is not a good starting point to winning them over, they just have a different perspective to those who believe Corbyn will be disastrous.
    Anyone who believes in the benefits of a Corbyn government are as dumb as anyone that believes in Brexit and they deserve to be called out as such.

    Believing in Father Christmas or fairies at the end of the garden are articles of faith that are less stupid than thinking there is such thing as a benign Corbyn government or an economically beneficial Brexit.
    I was trying to suggest that it may be better trying to point out that the perceived benefits of some of what is on offer from labour will disappear due to their other policies without that being carefully explained many will just see it as the haves defending what they have at the expense of the have nots.
    This is a fair point. I've got quite smart friends who simply don't understand how or why Corbyn's plans are "expensive". They don't grasp basic economics. Or wilfully refuse to understand.

    It's a kind of faith-based reaction.
    Nobody actually understands economics. It's not (yet) a science. It's as clear as a red-nose on a policeman that Labour's plans are quite astray from anything that looks like economic sense though.
    What is certain is that there is no such thing as free money.
    But Tories just as bad,
    "Neither the Conservatives nor Labour are offering "credible" spending plans ahead of the general election, an influential research group has said.
    The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said it was "highly likely" the Tories would end up spending more than their manifesto pledges.
    Labour, it warned, would be unable to deliver its spending increases as it has promised.
    Neither party was being "honest" with voters, IFS director Paul Johnson said.
    The Liberal Democrats' manifesto, he said, would involve lower levels of borrowing than under Labour or the Conservatives, but would still be seen as "radical" in "most periods".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50585818
  • ridaligo said:

    eek said:

    llef said:

    Just received a Tory leaflet in Windsor for Adam Afriyie (the local MP).
    3 Priorities listed are

    Fighting Heathrow expansion
    Protecting against flooding
    Defending local vibrant economy

    There is no mention of Brexit at all, which I find strange as he was a spartan voting against May's deal.

    It's almost as though he is ashamed of it.....



    So he should be ashamed - Windsor voted 53% Remain. Could be that he's detected a formidable Lib Dem surge.
    Today's Darlington Tory leaflet is the same

    More GPs
    Revitalise the Town Centre (Good luck there)
    More Police (possibly)

    No mention of Brexit just a desire for a none hung Parliament.

    Same as for Ranil in NE Hampshire. Leaflet in the post addressed to me. No mention of Boris or Brexit just a focus on "local issues" (housebuilding, roads, schools, GPs, etc) and a warning about hung Parliament / Corbyn if you vote Lib Dem. Seems like a CCHQ "template" approach in (very) safe Tory seats to me i.e. token effort not really required.

    Haven't noticed any posters from any party in any windows ... just a couple of Ranil billboards in the local farmers' fields. MRP says he'll lose some vote share to the Lib Dems but I doubt it ... the mood here is very Leavey and very anti-Corbyn (obv.).

    I'm meeting a mate for lunch tomorrow - he's involved with coordinating the Lib Dem effort in Winchester so l'll report back with any nuggets of info. from the front line.
    I can understand why sitting Tory MPs don't feel it necessary to emphasise a pro Brexit message on their election leaflet in both of Remain voting NE Hampshire and Windsor. They probably feel that they can pretty well clean up the pro Brexit vote in the absence of the BXP, with their main concern to keep a reasonable proportion of Tory Remainers on board by appealing to a broader agenda. However, the rationale of a Tory challenger downplaying Brexit in 58% Leave voting Darlington is harder to fathom in the face of competition from the BXP for Leave voters.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    some price moves after than London poll. Labour cut to 1/25 to win Hampstead and Kilburn with Betfair/Paddys. 3/10 still available with Skybet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    Brom said:

    I’ve been informed today that Labour are not, in fact, giving up on Bishop and Darlo.

    If they'd given up on Darlington it would be an admission they'd lost the election.
    Proabaly Labour's best course of action to reduce seat losses....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    According to Mike's previous thread header, 56% of Lab Leavers would vote Lab, 23% Cons and so forth. Crunching the numbers of the Deltapoll results gets me to Cons 38% (12.2m), Lab (32%) 10.2m. Cons are currently predicted to lose 4 and Lab to lose 5 seats to the SNP which won't change the vote share much.
    As such bf's 35.00-39.99% Cons voteshare looks compelling at 4.1. I have dabbled.
    Or...what have I missed?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kinabalu said:
    All you've confirmed in my mind is that she's a female Corbyn. A mad conspiracy theorist with a distinctly unserious mind. Still, in the eye of the beholder and all that.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    kinabalu said:
    My god. You believe that rubbish?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    kinabalu said:
    Good to see LAB still going on about the miners' strike. That went well for them!


  • But Tories just as bad,
    "Neither the Conservatives nor Labour are offering "credible" spending plans ahead of the general election, an influential research group has said.
    The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said it was "highly likely" the Tories would end up spending more than their manifesto pledges.
    Labour, it warned, would be unable to deliver its spending increases as it has promised.
    Neither party was being "honest" with voters, IFS director Paul Johnson said.
    The Liberal Democrats' manifesto, he said, would involve lower levels of borrowing than under Labour or the Conservatives, but would still be seen as "radical" in "most periods".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50585818

    Sorry but that is just not true. When one side is proposing spending 20 or 30 times more than the other you cannot claim the party proposing the lower amount is 'just as bad'.

    Yes the Tories are not being sensible and are spending more than they should but in comparison with Labour at the moment they are amateurs when it comes to spending money we don't have.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    camel said:

    The correct euphemism is 'Churchillian" which I doubt Johnson would seek to deny.

    He would luv it. And why not? The Great Man was a national hero, no question. Although would we have won in 43 if he had stayed off the bottle? Probably not but it would have been nice to have found out.

    Anyway, you and I, the atm highly select grouping who detect something special about Laura P. In a few years everyone will be claiming they saw it. Just like with Thatcher.
    I just watched a video of Pidcock speaking.

    She's Labour's version of Jo Swinson, right down to the chunky figure and weirdly big teeth. Personally I find her quite likeable, if unexciting, like Swinson; I wonder if she will annoy others - like Swinson.
    She's Swinson with a trillion-pound price tag......
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited December 2019


    But Tories just as bad,
    "Neither the Conservatives nor Labour are offering "credible" spending plans ahead of the general election, an influential research group has said.
    The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said it was "highly likely" the Tories would end up spending more than their manifesto pledges.
    Labour, it warned, would be unable to deliver its spending increases as it has promised.
    Neither party was being "honest" with voters, IFS director Paul Johnson said.
    The Liberal Democrats' manifesto, he said, would involve lower levels of borrowing than under Labour or the Conservatives, but would still be seen as "radical" in "most periods".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50585818

    C'mon, hardly 'Just as bad'. That is bonkers. The single afterthought of bunging £58bn to the undeserving WASPIs is more than the entire credibility gap in the Tories' or LibDems' plans, and that's before you even start to try to get your head around the zillions for nationalisation, cutting hours in the NHS, further zillions for so-called 'investment', and all the other myriad of nonsense that Labour haven't even bothered to include in what they laughingly call their 'costings', which in turn are based on absurd assumptions for tax revenues.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I have just taken a Labour leaflet at my door - and advised the deliverer that I will vote Green next week on account of being unable to support a gender-vetted Labour candidate.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    edited December 2019
    Omnium said:

    Nobody actually understands economics. It's not (yet) a science. It's as clear as a red-nose on a policeman that Labour's plans are quite astray from anything that looks like economic sense though.
    What is certain is that there is no such thing as free money.

    Not to defend everything in the Labour manifesto but to make a general point. This iteration of Labour (unlike previous ones) is challenging the consensus that arose from Mrs Thatcher's revolution. Much of the comment about how "ridiculous" and "insane" the policies are is purely because this consensus has now become sterile received wisdom. Exactly as happened with the previous consensus before Thatcher blew it apart.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    Omnium said:

    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:



    A number of posters on here forget that to a not insignificant group in society Corbyn represents no threat because the deal they have nothing to lose, this group is not the same as the so called left behind working class who could lose their brexit and believe The Mail etc. branding people as idiots is not a good starting point to winning them over, they just have a different perspective to those who believe Corbyn will be disastrous.

    Anyone who believes in the benefits of a Corbyn government are as dumb as anyone that believes in Brexit and they deserve to be called out as such.

    Believing in Father Christmas or fairies at the end of the garden are articles of faith that are less stupid than thinking there is such thing as a benign Corbyn government or an economically beneficial Brexit.
    I was trying to suggest that it may be better trying to point out that the perceived benefits of some of what is on offer from labour will disappear due to their other policies without that being carefully explained many will just see it as the haves defending what they have at the expense of the have nots.
    This is a fair point. I've got quite smart friends who simply don't understand how or why Corbyn's plans are "expensive". They don't grasp basic economics. Or wilfully refuse to understand.

    It's a kind of faith-based reaction.
    Nobody actually understands economics. It's not (yet) a science. It's as clear as a red-nose on a policeman that Labour's plans are quite astray from anything that looks like economic sense though.
    What is certain is that there is no such thing as free money.
    But Tories just as bad,
    "Neither the Conservatives nor Labour are offering "credible" spending plans ahead of the general election, an influential research group has said.
    The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said it was "highly likely" the Tories would end up spending more than their manifesto pledges.
    Labour, it warned, would be unable to deliver its spending increases as it has promised.
    Neither party was being "honest" with voters, IFS director Paul Johnson said.
    The Liberal Democrats' manifesto, he said, would involve lower levels of borrowing than under Labour or the Conservatives, but would still be seen as "radical" in "most periods".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50585818
    Tory spending plans are nuts too. IFS is pretty clear that they're less mad though.

    Austerity was what we needed and to some extent still need. It's the price we payed for Gordon Brown, mainly, but also all of the others that preceded him.

    Labour have always been the harbingers of poverty.
  • ridaligo said:

    eek said:

    llef said:

    Just received a Tory leaflet in Windsor for Adam Afriyie (the local MP).
    3 Priorities listed are

    Fighting Heathrow expansion
    Protecting against flooding
    Defending local vibrant economy

    There is no mention of Brexit at all, which I find strange as he was a spartan voting against May's deal.

    It's almost as though he is ashamed of it.....



    So he should be ashamed - Windsor voted 53% Remain. Could be that he's detected a formidable Lib Dem surge.
    Today's Darlington Tory leaflet is the same

    More GPs
    Revitalise the Town Centre (Good luck there)
    More Police (possibly)

    No mention of Brexit just a desire for a none hung Parliament.

    Same as for Ranil in NE Hampshire. Leaflet in the post addressed to me. No mention of Boris or Brexit just a focus on "local issues" (housebuilding, roads, schools, GPs, etc) and a warning about hung Parliament / Corbyn if you vote Lib Dem. Seems like a CCHQ "template" approach in (very) safe Tory seats to me i.e. token effort not really required.

    Haven't noticed any posters from any party in any windows ... just a couple of Ranil billboards in the local farmers' fields. MRP says he'll lose some vote share to the Lib Dems but I doubt it ... the mood here is very Leavey and very anti-Corbyn (obv.).

    I'm meeting a mate for lunch tomorrow - he's involved with coordinating the Lib Dem effort in Winchester so l'll report back with any nuggets of info. from the front line.
    I can understand why sitting Tory MPs don't feel it necessary to emphasise a pro Brexit message on their election leaflet in both of Remain voting NE Hampshire and Windsor. They probably feel that they can pretty well clean up the pro Brexit vote in the absence of the BXP, with their main concern to keep a reasonable proportion of Tory Remainers on board by appealing to a broader agenda. However, the rationale of a Tory challenger downplaying Brexit in 58% Leave voting Darlington is harder to fathom in the face of competition from the BXP for Leave voters.
    Sleaford and North Hykeham Conservative leaflet seems to be rather different to those previously mentioned.

    The three priorities mentioned are:

    Investment in Local NHS Services
    Get Brexit Done
    Better Infrastructure, more police, protected rural communities.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    edited December 2019
    With Holly and Phil drawing an apology out of a kicking and screaming Corbyn, Boris has agreed to an interview on This Morning. Brave, but dangerous!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Nobody actually understands economics. It's not (yet) a science. It's as clear as a red-nose on a policeman that Labour's plans are quite astray from anything that looks like economic sense though.
    What is certain is that there is no such thing as free money.

    Not to defend everything in the Labour manifesto but to make a general point. This iteration of Labour (unlike previous ones) is challenging the consensus that arose from Mrs Thatcher's successful revolution. Much of the comment about how "ridiculous" and "insane" the policies are is purely because this consensus has now become sterile received wisdom. Exactly as happened with the previous consensus before Thatcher blew it apart.
    I think its very unlikely that fairy tales will turn out to be a solid basis for rational economic thought. The consensus is not well founded, but its certainly clear that some things are true and some things are false.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    She's a good speaker, is my point. Draws you in.
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174

    ridaligo said:

    eek said:

    llef said:

    Just received a Tory leaflet in Windsor for Adam Afriyie (the local MP).
    3 Priorities listed are

    Fighting Heathrow expansion
    Protecting against flooding
    Defending local vibrant economy

    There is no mention of Brexit at all, which I find strange as he was a spartan voting against May's deal.

    It's almost as though he is ashamed of it.....



    So he should be ashamed - Windsor voted 53% Remain. Could be that he's detected a formidable Lib Dem surge.
    Today's Darlington Tory leaflet is the same

    More GPs
    Revitalise the Town Centre (Good luck there)
    More Police (possibly)

    No mention of Brexit just a desire for a none hung Parliament.

    Same as for Ranil in NE Hampshire. Leaflet in the post addressed to me. No mention of Boris or Brexit just a focus on "local issues" (housebuilding, roads, schools, GPs, etc) and a warning about hung Parliament / Corbyn if you vote Lib Dem. Seems like a CCHQ "template" approach in (very) safe Tory seats to me i.e. token effort not really required.

    Haven't noticed any posters from any party in any windows ... just a couple of Ranil billboards in the local farmers' fields. MRP says he'll lose some vote share to the Lib Dems but I doubt it ... the mood here is very Leavey and very anti-Corbyn (obv.).

    I'm meeting a mate for lunch tomorrow - he's involved with coordinating the Lib Dem effort in Winchester so l'll report back with any nuggets of info. from the front line.
    I can understand why sitting Tory MPs don't feel it necessary to emphasise a pro Brexit message on their election leaflet in both of Remain voting NE Hampshire and Windsor. They probably feel that they can pretty well clean up the pro Brexit vote in the absence of the BXP, with their main concern to keep a reasonable proportion of Tory Remainers on board by appealing to a broader agenda. However, the rationale of a Tory challenger downplaying Brexit in 58% Leave voting Darlington is harder to fathom in the face of competition from the BXP for Leave voters.
    Ah, yes, my bad ... I seem to remember we were Leave here but, you're right, I just re-checked and NE Hampshire was 54% remain (I must say I'm surprised by that) ... so, it makes perfect sense for Ranil to avoid the "B" word.
  • ridaligo said:

    eek said:

    llef said:

    Just received a Tory leaflet in Windsor for Adam Afriyie (the local MP).
    3 Priorities listed are

    Fighting Heathrow expansion
    Protecting against flooding
    Defending local vibrant economy

    There is no mention of Brexit at all, which I find strange as he was a spartan voting against May's deal.

    It's almost as though he is ashamed of it.....



    So he should be ashamed - Windsor voted 53% Remain. Could be that he's detected a formidable Lib Dem surge.
    Today's Darlington Tory leaflet is the same

    More GPs
    Revitalise the Town Centre (Good luck there)
    More Police (possibly)

    No mention of Brexit just a desire for a none hung Parliament.

    Same as for Ranil in NE Hampshire. Leaflet in the post addressed to me. No mention of Boris or Brexit just a focus on "local issues" (housebuilding, roads, schools, GPs, etc) and a warning about hung Parliament / Corbyn if you vote Lib Dem. Seems like a CCHQ "template" approach in (very) safe Tory seats to me i.e. token effort not really required.

    Haven't noticed any posters from any party in any windows ... just a couple of Ranil billboards in the local farmers' fields. MRP says he'll lose some vote share to the Lib Dems but I doubt it ... the mood here is very Leavey and very anti-Corbyn (obv.).

    I'm meeting a mate for lunch tomorrow - he's involved with coordinating the Lib Dem effort in Winchester so l'll report back with any nuggets of info. from the front line.
    I can understand why sitting Tory MPs don't feel it necessary to emphasise a pro Brexit message on their election leaflet in both of Remain voting NE Hampshire and Windsor. They probably feel that they can pretty well clean up the pro Brexit vote in the absence of the BXP, with their main concern to keep a reasonable proportion of Tory Remainers on board by appealing to a broader agenda. However, the rationale of a Tory challenger downplaying Brexit in 58% Leave voting Darlington is harder to fathom in the face of competition from the BXP for Leave voters.
    Sleaford and North Hykeham Conservative leaflet seems to be rather different to those previously mentioned.

    The three priorities mentioned are:

    Investment in Local NHS Services
    Get Brexit Done
    Better Infrastructure, more police, protected rural communities.

    I guess each candidate got to pick their 3 things. Theresa's three things are public services, trains and the environment. She mentions "as PM I gave the NHS the biggest single cash boost in its history"
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    kinabalu said:


    Not to defend everything in the Labour manifesto but to make a general point. This iteration of Labour (unlike previous ones) is challenging the consensus that arose from Mrs Thatcher's revolution. Much of the comment about how "ridiculous" and "insane" the policies are is purely because this consensus has now become sterile received wisdom. Exactly as happened with the previous consensus before Thatcher blew it apart.

    Simplification of course but I have never seen a consensus that agrees with gross overspending compared to sound money.

    At worst he latter may have implications around funding levels but the former is the sure path to a Venezuela/Zimbabwe type outcome.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    Omnium said:

    I think its very unlikely that fairy tales will turn out to be a solid basis for rational economic thought. The consensus is not well founded, but its certainly clear that some things are true and some things are false.

    You think the Thatcher settlement is eternal?
  • Today is all Trump and Boris meeting Merkel and Macron at no 10 and tonight the banquet with HMQ

    And Corbyn, standing in front of a picket line

    Tomorrow will be all about the NATO conference and international security

    And then just 6 days campaign left
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    edited December 2019
    Anyway, must go. But I want to say something important before I do.

    I like David Gauke.
  • Today is all Trump and Boris meeting Merkel and Macron at no 10 and tonight the banquet with HMQ

    And Corbyn, standing in front of a picket line

    Tomorrow will be all about the NATO conference and international security

    And then just 6 days campaign left

    When does the Tory campaign start?
  • Jeremy Corbyn vowed to confront Donald Trump at Buckingham Palace tonight after the US president took a wrecking ball to his claims the US want to seize the NHS.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7751171/Jeremy-Corbyn-vows-confront-Donald-Trump-Buckingham-Palace.html

    I have a vision of Queenie going leave it Jezza its not worth it...
  • llefllef Posts: 301

    some price moves after than London poll. Labour cut to 1/25 to win Hampstead and Kilburn with Betfair/Paddys. 3/10 still available with Skybet.

    yes indeed, betfair cut labour to 1/5 in bermondsey , libs out to 3/1.
    was 4/9 on labour earlier
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Just had by 9-13th latest LD leaflets (including the regulation joke one from OGH).

    It's utterly insane - there is zero chance they are sticking to spending limits - They must have spent £3 on me alone by this point, in a constituency they have no chance in.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    I think its very unlikely that fairy tales will turn out to be a solid basis for rational economic thought. The consensus is not well founded, but its certainly clear that some things are true and some things are false.

    You think the Thatcher settlement is eternal?
    It wasn't a 'settlement' it was a simple recognition of truth. (Some, but not much, quibble room in the definition of 'truth' here)

    Left wing economics simply doesn't exist. It just doesn't make sense. Every time its been tried its been worse than even the detractors would have it.
  • Today is all Trump and Boris meeting Merkel and Macron at no 10 and tonight the banquet with HMQ

    And Corbyn, standing in front of a picket line

    Tomorrow will be all about the NATO conference and international security

    And then just 6 days campaign left

    When does the Tory campaign start?
    Seems to be doing ok with Boris up 4% to 41% approval and Corbyn down 2% to 22% in todays poll
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited December 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Nobody actually understands economics. It's not (yet) a science. It's as clear as a red-nose on a policeman that Labour's plans are quite astray from anything that looks like economic sense though.
    What is certain is that there is no such thing as free money.

    Not to defend everything in the Labour manifesto but to make a general point. This iteration of Labour (unlike previous ones) is challenging the consensus that arose from Mrs Thatcher's revolution. Much of the comment about how "ridiculous" and "insane" the policies are is purely because this consensus has now become sterile received wisdom. Exactly as happened with the previous consensus before Thatcher blew it apart.
    Absolutely. Bin Corbyn and the anti-semites, get sound on defence and security, and accept a sensible form of leave (something EEA based but no CU) and Labour could easily have my vote. I’m not alone (well I’m probably quite picky on EU policy but otherwise not alone).
    Edit- Oh and bin mad stuff like nationalising broadband but hopefully that’s a given. Some nationalisations can make sense.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Jason said:

    kinabalu said:
    All you've confirmed in my mind is that she's a female Corbyn. A mad conspiracy theorist with a distinctly unserious mind. Still, in the eye of the beholder and all that.
    And there you have it, friends. Within weeks she will be there, sharing hustings with Keir Starmer and Rebecca Long Bailey in front of the labour membership.
    You don't have to share kinabalu's politics. This is a betting site. As Ave it would have it, Piddy nailed on!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'm reading insane shit that the LD internal polling is showing Swinson down 3 to 6 points on the SNP.

    If so I would like to deeply apologise to those people. I mocked for suggesting Swinson could be in trouble.
  • Alistair said:

    I'm reading insane shit that the LD internal polling is showing Swinson down 3 to 6 points on the SNP.

    If so I would like to deeply apologise to those people. I mocked for suggesting Swinson could be in trouble.

    From what I hear, she spends little time in the constituency, which has not gone down well locally. However, I'm sure there's every chance of her hanging on. Could go either way.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Alistair said:

    I'm reading insane shit that the LD internal polling is showing Swinson down 3 to 6 points on the SNP.

    If so I would like to deeply apologise to those people. I mocked for suggesting Swinson could be in trouble.

    Linky :?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    camel said:

    Jason said:

    kinabalu said:
    All you've confirmed in my mind is that she's a female Corbyn. A mad conspiracy theorist with a distinctly unserious mind. Still, in the eye of the beholder and all that.
    And there you have it, friends. Within weeks she will be there, sharing hustings with Keir Starmer and Rebecca Long Bailey in front of the labour membership.
    You don't have to share kinabalu's politics. This is a betting site. As Ave it would have it, Piddy nailed on!
    Ave it is never wrong and now projects as per above Durham NW LAB hold. So it could be SuperLaura LAB leader soon!

    Assuming the CORBYNISTA swing doesn't happen on 12 Dec...



  • But Tories just as bad,
    "Neither the Conservatives nor Labour are offering "credible" spending plans ahead of the general election, an influential research group has said.
    The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said it was "highly likely" the Tories would end up spending more than their manifesto pledges.
    Labour, it warned, would be unable to deliver its spending increases as it has promised.
    Neither party was being "honest" with voters, IFS director Paul Johnson said.
    The Liberal Democrats' manifesto, he said, would involve lower levels of borrowing than under Labour or the Conservatives, but would still be seen as "radical" in "most periods".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50585818

    Sorry but that is just not true. When one side is proposing spending 20 or 30 times more than the other you cannot claim the party proposing the lower amount is 'just as bad'.

    Yes the Tories are not being sensible and are spending more than they should but in comparison with Labour at the moment they are amateurs when it comes to spending money we don't have.
    … but they're more likely to actually be able to spend it. Labour can afford to be more outrageous as their best bet is a minority government when they will be held back.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    camel said:

    Jason said:

    kinabalu said:
    All you've confirmed in my mind is that she's a female Corbyn. A mad conspiracy theorist with a distinctly unserious mind. Still, in the eye of the beholder and all that.
    And there you have it, friends. Within weeks she will be there, sharing hustings with Keir Starmer and Rebecca Long Bailey in front of the labour membership.
    You don't have to share kinabalu's politics. This is a betting site. As Ave it would have it, Piddy nailed on!
    Long odds Bailey speaks with real passion too. Starmer err.. not so much.
  • maaarsh said:

    Just had by 9-13th latest LD leaflets (including the regulation joke one from OGH).

    It's utterly insane - there is zero chance they are sticking to spending limits - They must have spent £3 on me alone by this point, in a constituency they have no chance in.

    If delivered by hand by volunteers they're not expensive.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Ave_it said:

    camel said:

    Jason said:

    kinabalu said:
    All you've confirmed in my mind is that she's a female Corbyn. A mad conspiracy theorist with a distinctly unserious mind. Still, in the eye of the beholder and all that.
    And there you have it, friends. Within weeks she will be there, sharing hustings with Keir Starmer and Rebecca Long Bailey in front of the labour membership.
    You don't have to share kinabalu's politics. This is a betting site. As Ave it would have it, Piddy nailed on!
    Ave it is never wrong and now projects as per above Durham NW LAB hold. So it could be SuperLaura LAB leader soon!

    Assuming the CORBYNISTA swing doesn't happen on 12 Dec...

    There is always the danger that labour lose 60 seats and the silly old duffer stays on for one more push. But the next generation are snapping at his heels. And the next generation is leftist and it is female.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212

    maaarsh said:

    Just had by 9-13th latest LD leaflets (including the regulation joke one from OGH).

    It's utterly insane - there is zero chance they are sticking to spending limits - They must have spent £3 on me alone by this point, in a constituency they have no chance in.

    If delivered by hand by volunteers they're not expensive.
    What's the print cost of a leaflet ?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    maaarsh said:

    Just had by 9-13th latest LD leaflets (including the regulation joke one from OGH).

    It's utterly insane - there is zero chance they are sticking to spending limits - They must have spent £3 on me alone by this point, in a constituency they have no chance in.

    If delivered by hand by volunteers they're not expensive.
    I've had 7 by mail. If they're delivering by volunteers then these people are morons as I'm in a safe seat next door to a major target for the yellow peril.
This discussion has been closed.