SuperJo might be saved by CON tactical vote for LD
In other seats in Scotland we might see LAB and LD tactical vote for CON. Maybe Perth, Lanark and Hamilton W, Argyll & Bute, possibly Caithness
What`s your view on total SNP seats? Can go Under 45.5 on over/under bet at 5/6 and I`m tempted.
I have around 45 in mind but there are so many marginals in Scotland that this is a very tricky call.
LD will hold O & S SCon will hold BRS, DCT, D & G SLab will hold Edin South
Likely SLab: Coatbridge Like LD: Caithness Likely SCon: Banff, Moray, Aberdeen South
Tossup: Edin West (LD/SNP), NE Fife (LD/SNP), Angus (SCon/SNP), East Dunbartonshire (LD/SNP)
I'd be tempted by under 45.5.
SCon will hold West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. The Lib Dems have been forced to abandon long shots like this as they quickly retreat to a Hold strategy.
Today is all Trump and Boris meeting Merkel and Macron at no 10 and tonight the banquet with HMQ
And Corbyn, standing in front of a picket line
Tomorrow will be all about the NATO conference and international security
And then just 6 days campaign left
When does the Tory campaign start?
Seems to be doing ok with Boris up 4% to 41% approval and Corbyn down 2% to 22% in todays poll
Has HYUFD hacked your PB account? I remember those days just last summer when you planned on leaving the Conservative Party because they had just elected a charlatan as PM.
HYUFD is on the right of the party and I am on the left but we share one desire, to see Corbyn consigned to history
Apparently Hugh Grant is canvassing in London,going door to door to warn against the terrifying prospect of a Boris Johnson government,not sure it will change anything.
Claire Wright (Independent) to win Devon East from the Conservatives. You can get 7/4 if you're quick (she's shortening).
This is based on conversations and an amazing number of posters through her constituency.
N.B. I'm not saying she will, but that she's better than 7/4.
p.s. To show I'm not biased on this, I don't think Sarah Wollaston is going to win Totnes. This is a betting post.
Sarah Wollaston is not going to win the seat, despite the LibDems winning the poster war (as per usual).
Claire Wright always has a blizard of posters. I saw them in 2017. It is partly how she has got to where she has got to - I think most of her voters have a poster up.
In all the kerfuffle, one thing has gone overlooked
Boris has successfully dodged an interview with Andrew Neil
True but it doesn't't alter the fact that the man who is going to be our PM for the next 5 years is too frightened to do an interview with Andrew Neill.
Any vote for LAB LD SNP GRN and PC is a vote for a hard left CORBYNISTA government. Don't do it!
You're on the wrong site. We respond better on here if there's at least an attempt at logical argument.
Fuck off. Ave It is a great PB institution.
How would you know, you've only been around since May.
I lurked during my peak modelling years. As I've told you many times.
I'm not entirely convinced that you could keep your gob shut for years, regardless of the gruelling schedule of underpant wearing.
I don't think anyone believes the underpant modelling story anymore.
It's less convincing than Robert Del Naja denying he is Banksy - at least Robert can blame other band members.
...Move on, fanbois. Move on...
"Fanbois"??? I think you may have confused us with your fanclub.
Given the incredible facts of your lifetime as you have related them to us, I can appreciate the confusion, and no doubt the redditors of r/Byronic are even now filling the subreddit with many enconia for international crossdresser male models transitioning to be a woman who have recently visited Antarctica. But sadly we are not among their number.
However distressing it is to us, we must deal with you as we find you. No doubt you will one day reveal yourself to us in your full underpants-wearing glory, and I'm sure I speak for us all when I say that that image will be indelibly imprinted upon our mind. But until then we must suffer the lack.
Claire Wright (Independent) to win Devon East from the Conservatives. You can get 7/4 if you're quick (she's shortening).
This is based on conversations and an amazing number of posters through her constituency.
N.B. I'm not saying she will, but that she's better than 7/4.
p.s. To show I'm not biased on this, I don't think Sarah Wollaston is going to win Totnes. This is a betting post.
Thanks for the tip - I`ve placed a very small bet at 15/8 but to be honest I`ll be really surprised if anyone non-Tory wins Devon East. My parents live there and I know it well. Marquee_Mark: any comments?
Apparently Hugh Grant is canvassing in London,going door to door to warn against the terrifying prospect of a Boris Johnson government,not sure it will change anything.
How divine! Brown, now he would never have campaigned for him
Today is all Trump and Boris meeting Merkel and Macron at no 10 and tonight the banquet with HMQ
And Corbyn, standing in front of a picket line
Tomorrow will be all about the NATO conference and international security
And then just 6 days campaign left
When does the Tory campaign start?
Seems to be doing ok with Boris up 4% to 41% approval and Corbyn down 2% to 22% in todays poll
Has HYUFD hacked your PB account? I remember those days just last summer when you planned on leaving the Conservative Party because they had just elected a charlatan as PM.
HYUFD is on the right of the party and I am on the left but we share one desire, to see Corbyn consigned to history
I too would be only too happy to see the back of Corbyn. On topic Starter replacing him would be marvellous for me and the 150 or so remaining Labour MPs on December 13th.
With respect to your condemnation of the dreadful Corbyn and praise for the equally dreadful Johnson, can I point you in the biblical direction of Matthew 7. 3-5 Amen.
I actually think the media should work together and rather than trying to out do each other with silly stunts like the CH4 debate, come up with a concrete timetable between them to force politicians hands.
It is ridiculous that our potential leaders don't get interviewed for an extended period. I also think that the chancellors / shadows should as well.
The debates are just pantomime television, especially when the audiences are packed with mindless activist drones (of all persuasions).
The leaders agreeing to a single interview with each major channel (interviewer decided by broadcaster) is a far better way of seeing politicians forensically challenged.
Claire Wright (Independent) to win Devon East from the Conservatives. You can get 7/4 if you're quick (she's shortening).
This is based on conversations and an amazing number of posters through her constituency.
N.B. I'm not saying she will, but that she's better than 7/4.
p.s. To show I'm not biased on this, I don't think Sarah Wollaston is going to win Totnes. This is a betting post.
Thanks for the tip - I`ve placed a very small bet at 15/8 but to be honest I`ll be really surprised if anyone non-Tory wins Devon East. My parents live there and I know it well. Marquee_Mark: any comments?
Hope the bet is a £1.
CON hold. CON win every seat in SW outside Exeter and Bristol. Including a GAIN in Plymouth Sutton.
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I actually think the media should work together and rather than trying to out do each other with silly stunts like the CH4 debate, come up with a concrete timetable between them to force politicians hands.
It is ridiculous that our potential leaders don't get interviewed for an extended period. I also think that the chancellors / shadows should as well.
The debates are just pantomime television, especially when the audiences are packed with mindless activist drones (of all persuasions).
The leaders agreeing to a single interview with each major channel (interviewer decided by broadcaster) is a far better way of seeing politicians forensically challenged.
Further update on tactical voting (from the Guardian blog):
Almost a third of voters now say they will vote tactically in the election, according to polling carried out for the Electoral Reform Society (ERS), with the proportion rising rapidly.
The polling by BMG found 30% of people said they would be “voting for the best-positioned party/candidate to keep out another party/candidate that I dislike” on 12 December. This is up from 22% saying this at the start of the election campaign, and 24% in a parallel poll last week.
Only 51% of people said they would pick “the candidate/party I most prefer, regardless of how likely they are to win”.
That trend is not particularly surprising, over a period that has seen Labour and the Tories respectively squeeze the LD and BXP vote shares as voters focus on the realistic choices specific to their constituency.
Given Corbyn's abysmal favorability ratings, I would in any case expect relatively few habitual Labour voters to be supporting the party for any reason other than out of a resigned sense of electoral pragmatism in the absence of more moderate choices. And likewise I would expect that a number of Tory supporters and particularly Tory Remainers are resigned to voting Tory from a pragmatic appreciation of the risk that an old school Marxist could otherwise end up with the keys to No 10 rather than out of any enthusiasm for Johnson.
Why’s Boris campaigning in Salisbury? 17,000 odd majority. Keeping him out of trouble? SW Tory vote a bit soft? He should campaigning in Labour’ red wall.
Yes I wonder what security risk Boris could be highlighting in Salisbury. Could it be Corbyn and his ‘we should share all our evidence with Russia and see what they have to say about it’ approach to national security.
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I am still extremely concerned that Labour can squeeze Lib Dems some more, where as the Tories are relying on flat cap Fred and friends to change the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
In all the kerfuffle, one thing has gone overlooked
Boris has successfully dodged an interview with Andrew Neil
True but it doesn't't alter the fact that the man who is going to be our PM for the next 5 years is too frightened to do an interview with Andrew Neill.
I don't think Boris is personally scared to do an interview, but he's certainly politically concerned about the fallout if it was anything like Corbyn's evisceration. He won't do it now, there's far too much to lose this close to an election. In fact, he'd be utterly stupid to agree to it now.
The YouGov poll gives both the Tories and Labour something to be pleased about .
For Labour , Johnson’s big on crime and terrorists hasn’t moved the dial and for the Tories they maintain a stable lead with no sign of Labour making any progress .
The Green vote though at 4% is unlikely to be replicated on Election Day with that most likely to be squeezed by Labour , and there’s still a bit more room for Labour to squeeze the Lib Dems .
At the moment the Tories barring something bizarre will hit at least 40% , it’s really all about what Labour can do to narrow that .
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I am still extremely concerned that Labour can squeeze Lib Dems some more, where as the Tories are relying on flat cap Fred and friends to change the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
They don't as the Brexit Party are 3rd in most Labour Leave seats and taking enough Labour votes to give the Tories the seat
With only 9 days to go I wonder if the polls are going to stabilize.
With Christmas approaching I wouldn't be surprised if focus actually drifts away from the election...not us lot of course, we'll still be obsessing about sub-samples involving only Aunt Gladys and her friend Mavis.
My gut feeling is Labour are running out of road and they've stalled on the low to mid 30's which should leave just enough headroom for a Tory majority...barring any clown car moments from Boris.
Claire Wright (Independent) to win Devon East from the Conservatives. You can get 7/4 if you're quick (she's shortening).
This is based on conversations and an amazing number of posters through her constituency.
N.B. I'm not saying she will, but that she's better than 7/4.
p.s. To show I'm not biased on this, I don't think Sarah Wollaston is going to win Totnes. This is a betting post.
Sarah Wollaston is not going to win the seat, despite the LibDems winning the poster war (as per usual).
Claire Wright always has a blizard of posters. I saw them in 2017. It is partly how she has got to where she has got to - I think most of her voters have a poster up.
Re. Sarah, that's what I said!
No I've been speaking to people in the constituency too about Claire - people I'd have expected to be natural tory supporters. She has a lot of support. The 2017-19 parliament has made people more prone to support her, not less and she's been campaigning tirelessly for two years. Last time out she had a 4.5% swing from the tories. Now that Hugo Swire has stood down, she's pushing the newbie hard and she has tactical voting support too.
You can rubbish this if you like but I'm placing it as a hot tip for those on here who like betting without blinkers.
I knew the Lib Dems were in trouble, but I hadn’t realised that their lack of talent was so profound that Christine Jardine would be a top five candidate to be next leader.
LOLLLL, also potential for her to lose Edinburgh West. So 2 candidates who don't have a seat at the moment, 1 who may lose hers, Ed Davey the loser from last time, and Layla 'Punchy' Moran.
Claire Wright (Independent) to win Devon East from the Conservatives. You can get 7/4 if you're quick (she's shortening).
This is based on conversations and an amazing number of posters through her constituency.
N.B. I'm not saying she will, but that she's better than 7/4.
p.s. To show I'm not biased on this, I don't think Sarah Wollaston is going to win Totnes. This is a betting post.
Thanks for the tip - I`ve placed a very small bet at 15/8 but to be honest I`ll be really surprised if anyone non-Tory wins Devon East. My parents live there and I know it well. Marquee_Mark: any comments?
Hope the bet is a £1.
CON hold. CON win every seat in SW outside Exeter and Bristol. Including a GAIN in Plymouth Sutton.
If Ann Widdecombe doesn't bugger up Plymouth Sutton as the Brexit Party.
Claire Wright (Independent) to win Devon East from the Conservatives. You can get 7/4 if you're quick (she's shortening).
This is based on conversations and an amazing number of posters through her constituency.
N.B. I'm not saying she will, but that she's better than 7/4.
p.s. To show I'm not biased on this, I don't think Sarah Wollaston is going to win Totnes. This is a betting post.
Thanks for the tip - I`ve placed a very small bet at 15/8 but to be honest I`ll be really surprised if anyone non-Tory wins Devon East. My parents live there and I know it well. Marquee_Mark: any comments?
Hope the bet is a £1.
CON hold. CON win every seat in SW outside Exeter and Bristol. Including a GAIN in Plymouth Sutton.
Apparently Hugh Grant is canvassing in London,going door to door to warn against the terrifying prospect of a Boris Johnson government,not sure it will change anything.
How divine! Brown, now he would never have campaigned for him
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I am still extremely concerned that Labour can squeeze Lib Dems some more, where as the Tories are relying on flat cap Fred and friends to change the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
They don't as the Brexit Party are 3rd in most Labour Leave seats and taking enough Labour votes to give the Tories the seat
Just bear in mind that this is from the same person who confidently told us the Hungarian PM would veto the extension, that Macron was now Boris' best friend and would do the same and that Boris himself would resign rather than miss the Oct 31st guillotine.
The YouGov poll gives both the Tories and Labour something to be pleased about .
For Labour , Johnson’s big on crime and terrorists hasn’t moved the dial and for the Tories they maintain a stable lead with no sign of Labour making any progress .
The Green vote though at 4% is unlikely to be replicated on Election Day with that most likely to be squeezed by Labour , and there’s still a bit more room for Labour to squeeze the Lib Dems .
At the moment the Tories barring something bizarre will hit at least 40% , it’s really all about what Labour can do to narrow that .
Plus Labour's momentum is petering out and BXP is +2 (!), which means more to squeeze from them...
With only 9 days to go I wonder if the polls are going to stabilize.
With Christmas approaching I wouldn't be surprised if focus actually drifts away from the election...not us lot of course, we'll still be obsessing about sub-samples involving only Aunt Gladys and her friend Mavis.
My gut feeling is Labour are running out of road and they've stalled on the low to mid 30's which should leave just enough headroom for a Tory majority...barring any clown car moments from Boris.
Putting Boris in a clown car will probably boast his polling rating.
Further update on tactical voting (from the Guardian blog):
Almost a third of voters now say they will vote tactically in the election, according to polling carried out for the Electoral Reform Society (ERS), with the proportion rising rapidly.
The polling by BMG found 30% of people said they would be “voting for the best-positioned party/candidate to keep out another party/candidate that I dislike” on 12 December. This is up from 22% saying this at the start of the election campaign, and 24% in a parallel poll last week.
Only 51% of people said they would pick “the candidate/party I most prefer, regardless of how likely they are to win”.
True. That’s why I’ll be voting Tory, to keep out Corbyn.
Clearly not actually a teacher then. Teacher's at local comprehensives buy their own pens, pencils and ink just to keep lessons running. The truest sign ever we are at the absolute arse end of a Tory Administration. Plus your'e happy withdrawing from the EU science funding euratom etc etc?
Just imagine if Corbyn gets in and gives the schools the money and respect they deserve. Whatever would you do. Being a fyzicyst you clearly cannot be taken in buy the populist right wing. ' oh yeah mate Corbyn he's a terrorist its well known mate' (sharp exhalation of breath through teeth).
Why you so frightened:(???
Who said I teach at a comprehensive?
I voted remain and would have been much happier if we were staying in. An Ed Miliband type leader of Labour would probably have me voting Lib Dem without too many qualms. Jeremy Corbyn is altogether different. I am old enough to remember the end of the Seventies and the chaos of Labour relations at that time: I don’t want a government that thinks it was a golden age. I remember the IRA’s bombing campaign: I don’t want a Prime Minister whose response to the Brighton Bombing was to invite IRA leaders to Parliament. I don’t want a Prime Minister who instinctively sides with Britain’s enemies. I don’t want a Prime Minister who can’t see the antisemitism around him. Do I want Boris to be Prime Minister? No, I think he will probably end up beIng a disaster. But better him than Corbyn.
Claire Wright (Independent) to win Devon East from the Conservatives. You can get 7/4 if you're quick (she's shortening).
This is based on conversations and an amazing number of posters through her constituency.
N.B. I'm not saying she will, but that she's better than 7/4.
p.s. To show I'm not biased on this, I don't think Sarah Wollaston is going to win Totnes. This is a betting post.
Thanks for the tip - I`ve placed a very small bet at 15/8 but to be honest I`ll be really surprised if anyone non-Tory wins Devon East. My parents live there and I know it well. Marquee_Mark: any comments?
Hope the bet is a £1.
CON hold. CON win every seat in SW outside Exeter and Bristol. Including a GAIN in Plymouth Sutton.
Portsmouth South?
No I think we (CON) have had it there. Don't know why. Not SW though.
In all the kerfuffle, one thing has gone overlooked
Boris has successfully dodged an interview with Andrew Neil
True but it doesn't't alter the fact that the man who is going to be our PM for the next 5 years is too frightened to do an interview with Andrew Neill.
I don't think Boris is personally scared to do an interview, but he's certainly politically concerned about the fallout if it was anything like Corbyn's evisceration. He won't do it now, there's far too much to lose this close to an election. In fact, he'd be utterly stupid to agree to it now.
In all the kerfuffle, one thing has gone overlooked
Boris has successfully dodged an interview with Andrew Neil
True but it doesn't't alter the fact that the man who is going to be our PM for the next 5 years is too frightened to do an interview with Andrew Neill.
I don't think Boris is personally scared to do an interview, but he's certainly politically concerned about the fallout if it was anything like Corbyn's evisceration. He won't do it now, there's far too much to lose this close to an election. In fact, he'd be utterly stupid to agree to it now.
In all the kerfuffle, one thing has gone overlooked
Boris has successfully dodged an interview with Andrew Neil
True but it doesn't't alter the fact that the man who is going to be our PM for the next 5 years is too frightened to do an interview with Andrew Neill.
I don't think Boris is personally scared to do an interview, but he's certainly politically concerned about the fallout if it was anything like Corbyn's evisceration. He won't do it now, there's far too much to lose this close to an election. In fact, he'd be utterly stupid to agree to it now.
He thinks he is entitled to be PM without subjecting himself to the same scrutiny as others. And don't pretend that it's just too late to do it now - he should have done it already, the fact he hasn't is entirely down to him. Neil should just do the programme without him. I for one would be interested in hearing the questions, even if we are to be denied the answers.
Apparently Hugh Grant is canvassing in London,going door to door to warn against the terrifying prospect of a Boris Johnson government,not sure it will change anything.
How divine! Brown, now he would never have campaigned for him
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I am still extremely concerned that Labour can squeeze Lib Dems some more, where as the Tories are relying on flat cap Fred and friends to change the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
They don't as the Brexit Party are 3rd in most Labour Leave seats and taking enough Labour votes to give the Tories the seat
Just bear in mind that this is from the same person who confidently told us the Hungarian PM would veto the extension, that Macron was now Boris' best friend and would do the same and that Boris himself would resign rather than miss the Oct 31st guillotine.
He has form.
I said Macron would not allow further extension without EUref2 or a GE, we habe a GE, Boris also opposed further extension himself, just sent a photocopy of Parliament's vote for extension making clear his personal opposition
The YouGov poll gives both the Tories and Labour something to be pleased about .
For Labour , Johnson’s big on crime and terrorists hasn’t moved the dial and for the Tories they maintain a stable lead with no sign of Labour making any progress .
The Green vote though at 4% is unlikely to be replicated on Election Day with that most likely to be squeezed by Labour , and there’s still a bit more room for Labour to squeeze the Lib Dems .
At the moment the Tories barring something bizarre will hit at least 40% , it’s really all about what Labour can do to narrow that .
...also if the tiny LD vote is confined to LD/Tory marginals and Labour's declining vote is in the heartlands where they previously racked up enormous wasted majorities, both parties could end up being more economical with their votes than the Tories. Don't forget the fragrant Sir Chris Chope in Christchurch gets a few national Tory percentage points on his own!
With only 9 days to go I wonder if the polls are going to stabilize.
With Christmas approaching I wouldn't be surprised if focus actually drifts away from the election...not us lot of course, we'll still be obsessing about sub-samples involving only Aunt Gladys and her friend Mavis.
My gut feeling is Labour are running out of road and they've stalled on the low to mid 30's which should leave just enough headroom for a Tory majority...barring any clown car moments from Boris.
I was feeling exactly that while doing a bit of Christmas shopping today.
Thousands and thousands of people out enjoying themselves and probably not giving as much as five seconds of their time to politics.
Today is all Trump and Boris meeting Merkel and Macron at no 10 and tonight the banquet with HMQ
And Corbyn, standing in front of a picket line
Tomorrow will be all about the NATO conference and international security
And then just 6 days campaign left
When does the Tory campaign start?
Seems to be doing ok with Boris up 4% to 41% approval and Corbyn down 2% to 22% in todays poll
Has HYUFD hacked your PB account? I remember those days just last summer when you planned on leaving the Conservative Party because they had just elected a charlatan as PM.
HYUFD is on the right of the party and I am on the left but we share one desire, to see Corbyn consigned to history
I too would be only too happy to see the back of Corbyn. On topic Starter replacing him would be marvellous for me and the 150 or so remaining Labour MPs on December 13th.
With respect to your condemnation of the dreadful Corbyn and praise for the equally dreadful Johnson, can I point you in the biblical direction of Matthew 7. 3-5 Amen.
I do not praise Boris. He has so many faults but he is the only person right now who can beat Corbyn. I assume you mean Starmer but I expect labour will insist on a female
In all the kerfuffle, one thing has gone overlooked
Boris has successfully dodged an interview with Andrew Neil
True but it doesn't't alter the fact that the man who is going to be our PM for the next 5 years is too frightened to do an interview with Andrew Neill.
I don't think Boris is personally scared to do an interview, but he's certainly politically concerned about the fallout if it was anything like Corbyn's evisceration. He won't do it now, there's far too much to lose this close to an election. In fact, he'd be utterly stupid to agree to it now.
If he didn't lie and was on top of the policy detail he would have little to fear. If he actually knew what he was going to do when time runs out on a trade deal next summer he would have little to fear.
It won't make any difference to the election outcome but it will matter afterwards because we all know why he daren't risk the interview. To be fair many people who will vote for him know he's not up to the job. It won't matter next week but it will matter during the next 5 years.
Apparently Hugh Grant is canvassing in London,going door to door to warn against the terrifying prospect of a Boris Johnson government,not sure it will change anything.
How divine! Brown, now he would never have campaigned for him
A harsh blow. Job well done, I think.
Lads, lads.
While we're being inappropriate i've got a confession to make...i'm falling in love with Kate McCann.
Once day I was normal, then I register on here and now i'm obsessed with a political correspondent.
The YouGov poll gives both the Tories and Labour something to be pleased about .
For Labour , Johnson’s big on crime and terrorists hasn’t moved the dial and for the Tories they maintain a stable lead with no sign of Labour making any progress .
The Green vote though at 4% is unlikely to be replicated on Election Day with that most likely to be squeezed by Labour , and there’s still a bit more room for Labour to squeeze the Lib Dems .
At the moment the Tories barring something bizarre will hit at least 40% , it’s really all about what Labour can do to narrow that .
Plus Labour's momentum is petering out and BXP is +2 (!), which means more to squeeze from them...
Let’s say the Tories poll 43% on Election Day , Labour need to get within 6 points so 37% to make life a bit more difficult .
I can see Labour squeezing around 2% out of the Lib Dems and 1% out of the Greens . It’s touch and go because Labour might be overperforming in parts of the country like London and likely underperforming in the Midlands and the North .
With only 9 days to go I wonder if the polls are going to stabilize.
With Christmas approaching I wouldn't be surprised if focus actually drifts away from the election...not us lot of course, we'll still be obsessing about sub-samples involving only Aunt Gladys and her friend Mavis.
My gut feeling is Labour are running out of road and they've stalled on the low to mid 30's which should leave just enough headroom for a Tory majority...barring any clown car moments from Boris.
Agree with this. Nobody can accuse Labour of not throwing anything and everything they possibly could at this election, including some of the most ridiculous spending pledges and scare mongering tactics I can ever recall. Maybe the public are not as gullible as Labour think they are.
The Tory share has remained incredibly robust for the entire campaign, and unless there's a last minute fuck up from Boris, I reckon it's all but over now.
Further update on tactical voting (from the Guardian blog):
Almost a third of voters now say they will vote tactically in the election, according to polling carried out for the Electoral Reform Society (ERS), with the proportion rising rapidly.
The polling by BMG found 30% of people said they would be “voting for the best-positioned party/candidate to keep out another party/candidate that I dislike” on 12 December. This is up from 22% saying this at the start of the election campaign, and 24% in a parallel poll last week.
Only 51% of people said they would pick “the candidate/party I most prefer, regardless of how likely they are to win”.
That trend is not particularly surprising, over a period that has seen Labour and the Tories respectively squeeze the LD and BXP vote shares as voters focus on the realistic choices specific to their constituency.
Given Corbyn's abysmal favorability ratings, I would in any case expect relatively few habitual Labour voters to be supporting the party for any reason other than out of a resigned sense of electoral pragmatism in the absence of more moderate choices. And likewise I would expect that a number of Tory supporters and particularly Tory Remainers are resigned to voting Tory from a pragmatic appreciation of the risk that an old school Marxist could otherwise end up with the keys to No 10 rather than out of any enthusiasm for Johnson.
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I am still extremely concerned that Labour can squeeze Lib Dems some more, where as the Tories are relying on flat cap Fred and friends to change the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
Absolutely ... when the dust settles on this GE and the analysis is done the most fascinating thing will be to what extent traditional loyalites / habits remained intact. I share your nervousness. Lib Dems/Remainers will vote Labour in a heartbeat despite Corbyn but visceral hatred of the Tories will make it tough for dyed-in-the-wool Labour voters to put their cross in that box. Do they despise all that Corbyn stands for enough to vote for "Boris" to deliver Brexit - that is the question on which the GE rests.
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I am still extremely concerned that Labour can squeeze Lib Dems some more, where as the Tories are relying on flat cap Fred and friends to change the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
They don't as the Brexit Party are 3rd in most Labour Leave seats and taking enough Labour votes to give the Tories the seat
Just bear in mind that this is from the same person who confidently told us the Hungarian PM would veto the extension, that Macron was now Boris' best friend and would do the same and that Boris himself would resign rather than miss the Oct 31st guillotine.
He has form.
I said Macron would not allow further extension without EUref2 or a GE, we habe a GE, Boris also opposed further extension himself, just sent a photocopy of Parliament's vote for extension making clear his personal opposition
Aw, Boris this, Boris that. Quite sweet how you love him so. Just beware, he generally betrays all.
I actually think the media should work together and rather than trying to out do each other with silly stunts like the CH4 debate, come up with a concrete timetable between them to force politicians hands.
It is ridiculous that our potential leaders don't get interviewed for an extended period. I also think that the chancellors / shadows should as well.
The debates are just pantomime television, especially when the audiences are packed with mindless activist drones (of all persuasions).
The leaders agreeing to a single interview with each major channel (interviewer decided by broadcaster) is a far better way of seeing politicians forensically challenged.
I think they'd e much better without a studio audience. Let the public judge without the mob baying on either side.
In all the kerfuffle, one thing has gone overlooked
Boris has successfully dodged an interview with Andrew Neil
True but it doesn't't alter the fact that the man who is going to be our PM for the next 5 years is too frightened to do an interview with Andrew Neill.
I don't think Boris is personally scared to do an interview, but he's certainly politically concerned about the fallout if it was anything like Corbyn's evisceration. He won't do it now, there's far too much to lose this close to an election. In fact, he'd be utterly stupid to agree to it now.
He is debating Corbyn in a head to head on BBC on friday at 8.30pm
I expect that will be the last debate Boris will take part in
And 'not as bad as Zimbabwe', which had interest rates of 65,000% and life expectancies worse than 14th century England (both within living memory) is damning with faint praise.
The YouGov poll gives both the Tories and Labour something to be pleased about .
For Labour , Johnson’s big on crime and terrorists hasn’t moved the dial and for the Tories they maintain a stable lead with no sign of Labour making any progress .
The Green vote though at 4% is unlikely to be replicated on Election Day with that most likely to be squeezed by Labour , and there’s still a bit more room for Labour to squeeze the Lib Dems .
At the moment the Tories barring something bizarre will hit at least 40% , it’s really all about what Labour can do to narrow that .
Plus Labour's momentum is petering out and BXP is +2 (!), which means more to squeeze from them...
Let’s say the Tories poll 43% on Election Day , Labour need to get within 6 points so 37% to make life a bit more difficult .
I can see Labour squeezing around 2% out of the Lib Dems and 1% out of the Greens . It’s touch and go because Labour might be overperforming in parts of the country like London and likely underperforming in the Midlands and the North .
I honestly don't believe the 6% figure at this point, due to the potential for inefficient Labour distribution you mention. I think the Tories could scrape home (meaning over 322 - an overall majority of 1 given SF and deputy speakers) on 5%.
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I am still extremely concerned that Labour can squeeze Lib Dems some more, where as the Tories are relying on flat cap Fred and friends to change the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
Absolutely ... when the dust settles on this GE and the analysis is done the most fascinating thing will be to what extent traditional loyalites / habits remained intact. I share your nervousness. Lib Dems/Remainers will vote Labour in a heartbeat despite Corbyn but visceral hatred of the Tories will make it tough for dyed-in-the-wool Labour voters to put their cross in that box. Do they despise all that Corbyn stands for enough to vote for "Boris" to deliver Brexit - that is the question on which the GE rests.
Indeed. I am still expecting a lot of Lab-Tory switchers to not materialise and spoil Johnson's fanbois best fantasies. Every outcome of this election is potentially a loss for the UK. Corbyn=big economic disaster. Johnson + Brexit= economic disaster. Hung parliament = political disaster.
In all the kerfuffle, one thing has gone overlooked
Boris has successfully dodged an interview with Andrew Neil
True but it doesn't't alter the fact that the man who is going to be our PM for the next 5 years is too frightened to do an interview with Andrew Neill.
I don't think Boris is personally scared to do an interview, but he's certainly politically concerned about the fallout if it was anything like Corbyn's evisceration. He won't do it now, there's far too much to lose this close to an election. In fact, he'd be utterly stupid to agree to it now.
He is debating Corbyn in a head to head on BBC on friday at 8.30pm
I expect that will be the last debate Boris will take part in
I have a hunch Corbyn might just throw one more mad roll of the dice, and that is to announce the cancelling of all student debt live on air. It would certainly make the headlines and maybe run right into the following week.
Of course, we all know that the sums of money involved would never materialise, just like all the other pledges they've made. But still. I reckon Corbyn is just about desperate enough to say anything now, no matter how far fetched.
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I am still extremely concerned that Labour can squeeze Lib Dems some more, where as the Tories are relying on flat cap Fred and friends to change the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
Absolutely ... when the dust settles on this GE and the analysis is done the most fascinating thing will be to what extent traditional loyalites / habits remained intact. I share your nervousness. Lib Dems/Remainers will vote Labour in a heartbeat despite Corbyn but visceral hatred of the Tories will make it tough for dyed-in-the-wool Labour voters to put their cross in that box. Do they despise all that Corbyn stands for enough to vote for "Boris" to deliver Brexit - that is the question on which the GE rests.
Indeed. I am still expecting a lot of Lab-Tory switchers to not materialise and spoil Johnson's fanbois best fantasies. Every outcome of this election is potentially a loss for the UK. Corbyn=big economic disaster. Johnson + Brexit= economic disaster. Hung parliament = political disaster.
You know the chap currently visiting London became the President of the United States because rust-belt Democrats overcame the habit of a lifetime to vote for him, right?
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I am still extremely concerned that Labour can squeeze Lib Dems some more, where as the Tories are relying on flat cap Fred and friends to change the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
Absolutely ... when the dust settles on this GE and the analysis is done the most fascinating thing will be to what extent traditional loyalites / habits remained intact. I share your nervousness. Lib Dems/Remainers will vote Labour in a heartbeat despite Corbyn but visceral hatred of the Tories will make it tough for dyed-in-the-wool Labour voters to put their cross in that box. Do they despise all that Corbyn stands for enough to vote for "Boris" to deliver Brexit - that is the question on which the GE rests.
Indeed. I am still expecting a lot of Lab-Tory switchers to not materialise and spoil Johnson's fanbois best fantasies. Every outcome of this election is potentially a loss for the UK. Corbyn=big economic disaster. Johnson + Brexit= economic disaster. Hung parliament = political disaster.
Hung parliament = political disaster to be followed shortly afterwards by at least one of the economic disasters.
In all the kerfuffle, one thing has gone overlooked
Boris has successfully dodged an interview with Andrew Neil
True but it doesn't't alter the fact that the man who is going to be our PM for the next 5 years is too frightened to do an interview with Andrew Neill.
I don't think Boris is personally scared to do an interview, but he's certainly politically concerned about the fallout if it was anything like Corbyn's evisceration. He won't do it now, there's far too much to lose this close to an election. In fact, he'd be utterly stupid to agree to it now.
He is debating Corbyn in a head to head on BBC on friday at 8.30pm
I expect that will be the last debate Boris will take part in
I have a hunch Corbyn might just throw one more mad roll of the dice, and that is to announce the cancelling of all student debt live on air. It would certainly make the headlines and maybe run right into the following week.
Of course, we all know that the sums of money involved would never materialise, just like all the other pledges they've made. But still. I reckon Corbyn is just about desperate enough to say anything now, no matter how far fetched.
And what new voters to Labour will that attract? Arent the students already a slam dunk for them?
In all the kerfuffle, one thing has gone overlooked
Boris has successfully dodged an interview with Andrew Neil
True but it doesn't't alter the fact that the man who is going to be our PM for the next 5 years is too frightened to do an interview with Andrew Neill.
I don't think Boris is personally scared to do an interview, but he's certainly politically concerned about the fallout if it was anything like Corbyn's evisceration. He won't do it now, there's far too much to lose this close to an election. In fact, he'd be utterly stupid to agree to it now.
He is debating Corbyn in a head to head on BBC on friday at 8.30pm
I expect that will be the last debate Boris will take part in
I have a hunch Corbyn might just throw one more mad roll of the dice, and that is to announce the cancelling of all student debt live on air. It would certainly make the headlines and maybe run right into the following week.
Of course, we all know that the sums of money involved would never materialise, just like all the other pledges they've made. But still. I reckon Corbyn is just about desperate enough to say anything now, no matter how far fetched.
It could indeed be a powerful final throw of the dice.
Or it could implode immediately on live TV as a desperate old man literally starts making up magic money on the spot as he begs for a few more votes to avoid oblivion...
Apparently Hugh Grant is canvassing in London,going door to door to warn against the terrifying prospect of a Boris Johnson government,not sure it will change anything.
How divine! Brown, now he would never have campaigned for him
A harsh blow. Job well done, I think.
Lads, lads.
While we're being inappropriate i've got a confession to make...i'm falling in love with Kate McCann.
Once day I was normal, then I register on here and now i'm obsessed with a political correspondent.
Kate is excellent - indeed one of the best from Sky
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I am still extremely concerned that Labour can squeeze Lib Dems some more, where as the Tories are relying on flat cap Fred and friends to change the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
Absolutely ... when the dust settles on this GE and the analysis is done the most fascinating thing will be to what extent traditional loyalites / habits remained intact. I share your nervousness. Lib Dems/Remainers will vote Labour in a heartbeat despite Corbyn but visceral hatred of the Tories will make it tough for dyed-in-the-wool Labour voters to put their cross in that box. Do they despise all that Corbyn stands for enough to vote for "Boris" to deliver Brexit - that is the question on which the GE rests.
Indeed. I am still expecting a lot of Lab-Tory switchers to not materialise and spoil Johnson's fanbois best fantasies. Every outcome of this election is potentially a loss for the UK. Corbyn=big economic disaster. Johnson + Brexit= economic disaster. Hung parliament = political disaster.
Hung parliament = political disaster to be followed shortly afterwards by at least one of the economic disasters.
I think you underplay the tangible sense of abandonment felt by old Labour voters in some of these areas, especially the Midlands.
The same could have been said of Scotland 10 years ago. When these things break, the break fast...
DIg into the piece and there are some nuggets for them
Interesting. I actually think Labour's campaign has been quite good: it gives the impression of a party fizzing with ideas and not afraid to be adventurous. My guess is that will be enough to retain traditional Labour voters who might otherwise have flirted with Boris: a kind of 'A for effort' endorsement if you will.
In all the kerfuffle, one thing has gone overlooked
Boris has successfully dodged an interview with Andrew Neil
True but it doesn't't alter the fact that the man who is going to be our PM for the next 5 years is too frightened to do an interview with Andrew Neill.
I don't think Boris is personally scared to do an interview, but he's certainly politically concerned about the fallout if it was anything like Corbyn's evisceration. He won't do it now, there's far too much to lose this close to an election. In fact, he'd be utterly stupid to agree to it now.
He is debating Corbyn in a head to head on BBC on friday at 8.30pm
I expect that will be the last debate Boris will take part in
I have a hunch Corbyn might just throw one more mad roll of the dice, and that is to announce the cancelling of all student debt live on air. It would certainly make the headlines and maybe run right into the following week.
Of course, we all know that the sums of money involved would never materialise, just like all the other pledges they've made. But still. I reckon Corbyn is just about desperate enough to say anything now, no matter how far fetched.
And what new voters to Labour will that attract? Arent the students already a slam dunk for them?
Indeed yes, I doubt it would actually shift any seats, especially outside of London, but this is Corbyn we're talking about. I think we're long past the point of reason with him.
DIg into the piece and there are some nuggets for them
Interesting. I actually think Labour's campaign has been quite good: it gives the impression of a party fizzing with ideas and not afraid to be adventurous. My guess is that will be enough to retain traditional Labour voters who might otherwise have flirted with Boris: a kind of 'A for effort' endorsement if you will.
Traditional Labour voters are spitting on Corbyn for betraying them on Brexit. Their anger is likely to make itself felt on polling day.
Apparently Hugh Grant is canvassing in London,going door to door to warn against the terrifying prospect of a Boris Johnson government,not sure it will change anything.
How divine! Brown, now he would never have campaigned for him
A harsh blow. Job well done, I think.
Lads, lads.
While we're being inappropriate i've got a confession to make...i'm falling in love with Kate McCann.
Once day I was normal, then I register on here and now i'm obsessed with a political correspondent.
Kate is excellent - indeed one of the best from Sky
My missus has banned me from watching Sky News when Kate's on.
DIg into the piece and there are some nuggets for them
Interesting. I actually think Labour's campaign has been quite good: it gives the impression of a party fizzing with ideas and not afraid to be adventurous. My guess is that will be enough to retain traditional Labour voters who might otherwise have flirted with Boris: a kind of 'A for effort' endorsement if you will.
I need to point out that the goodness of an election campaign is measured by how well the party performs at an election. If the result for Labour is as bad as the polls predict, then it is a bad campaign.
I think you underplay the tangible sense of abandonment felt by old Labour voters in some of these areas, especially the Midlands.
The same could have been said of Scotland 10 years ago. When these things break, the break fast...
If the Tories win and Brexit is viewed as being done (yes, I know) then the natural supporters will coalesce around the party again.
Labour on the other hand have somehow got to try and stitch their leaver and reamainer cohorts together with a future position on the EU that would appear to enrage one group or the other.
Lib Dem's will be fine as will the odds-and-sods parties.
In all the kerfuffle, one thing has gone overlooked
Boris has successfully dodged an interview with Andrew Neil
True but it doesn't't alter the fact that the man who is going to be our PM for the next 5 years is too frightened to do an interview with Andrew Neill.
I don't think Boris is personally scared to do an interview, but he's certainly politically concerned about the fallout if it was anything like Corbyn's evisceration. He won't do it now, there's far too much to lose this close to an election. In fact, he'd be utterly stupid to agree to it now.
He is debating Corbyn in a head to head on BBC on friday at 8.30pm
I expect that will be the last debate Boris will take part in
I have a hunch Corbyn might just throw one more mad roll of the dice, and that is to announce the cancelling of all student debt live on air. It would certainly make the headlines and maybe run right into the following week.
Of course, we all know that the sums of money involved would never materialise, just like all the other pledges they've made. But still. I reckon Corbyn is just about desperate enough to say anything now, no matter how far fetched.
And what new voters to Labour will that attract? Arent the students already a slam dunk for them?
Only the however the millions still paying it back from the 90’s onward
Just had by 9-13th latest LD leaflets (including the regulation joke one from OGH).
It's utterly insane - there is zero chance they are sticking to spending limits - They must have spent £3 on me alone by this point, in a constituency they have no chance in.
If delivered by hand by volunteers they're not expensive.
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I am still extremely concerned that Labour can squeeze Lib Dems some more, where as the Tories are relying on flat cap Fred and friends to change the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
Absolutely ... when the dust settles on this GE and the analysis is done the most fascinating thing will be to what extent traditional loyalites / habits remained intact. I share your nervousness. Lib Dems/Remainers will vote Labour in a heartbeat despite Corbyn but visceral hatred of the Tories will make it tough for dyed-in-the-wool Labour voters to put their cross in that box. Do they despise all that Corbyn stands for enough to vote for "Boris" to deliver Brexit - that is the question on which the GE rests.
Indeed. I am still expecting a lot of Lab-Tory switchers to not materialise and spoil Johnson's fanbois best fantasies. Every outcome of this election is potentially a loss for the UK. Corbyn=big economic disaster. Johnson + Brexit= economic disaster. Hung parliament = political disaster.
You know the chap currently visiting London became the President of the United States because rust-belt Democrats overcame the habit of a lifetime to vote for him, right?
Yes, and that is what I *think* will happen here (at least to some extent). I'm not sure why it didn't happen in 2017 (or was it masked by Remainer tactical voting?) but in 2019, following another 2 years of dicking about over Brexit, it might. Then again, although we share many of the same "culture war" influencing factors, the UK is not the USA - tribal voting is more entrenched here.
Apparently Hugh Grant is canvassing in London,going door to door to warn against the terrifying prospect of a Boris Johnson government,not sure it will change anything.
How divine! Brown, now he would never have campaigned for him
A harsh blow. Job well done, I think.
Lads, lads.
While we're being inappropriate i've got a confession to make...i'm falling in love with Kate McCann.
Once day I was normal, then I register on here and now i'm obsessed with a political correspondent.
Kate is excellent - indeed one of the best from Sky
My missus has banned me from watching Sky News when Kate's on.
DIg into the piece and there are some nuggets for them
Interesting. I actually think Labour's campaign has been quite good: it gives the impression of a party fizzing with ideas and not afraid to be adventurous. My guess is that will be enough to retain traditional Labour voters who might otherwise have flirted with Boris: a kind of 'A for effort' endorsement if you will.
I need to point out that the goodness of an election campaign is measured by how well the party performs at an election. If the result for Labour is as bad as the polls predict, then it is a bad campaign.
Common knowledge in 2015 was that Cameron's campaign was lacklustre. Well, right up until the second dong.
DIg into the piece and there are some nuggets for them
Interesting. I actually think Labour's campaign has been quite good: it gives the impression of a party fizzing with ideas and not afraid to be adventurous. My guess is that will be enough to retain traditional Labour voters who might otherwise have flirted with Boris: a kind of 'A for effort' endorsement if you will.
If that was true, Labour would be heading for largest party, maybe even a majority. There is no evidence for that, no matter how hard you search for it. Several of the lifelong Labour voters I've spoken to will not vote for Labour again until Corbyn and McDonnell have long gone.
Lab's NHS line is a slow burn. It will pick up supporters all the way to polling day. I'm not sure they've stalled.
No they certainly haven't. Sniffles are spreading, NHS creaking and then you have Donald Trump in town and a bit of a smoking gun with Dominic Raab today.
It will burn and burn and burn all the way to Dec 12th. And as I've mentioned many times, it's FAR more important to Labour Leavers than Brexit.
DIg into the piece and there are some nuggets for them
Interesting. I actually think Labour's campaign has been quite good: it gives the impression of a party fizzing with ideas and not afraid to be adventurous. My guess is that will be enough to retain traditional Labour voters who might otherwise have flirted with Boris: a kind of 'A for effort' endorsement if you will.
Several of the lifelong Labour voters I've spoken to will not vote for Labour again until Corbyn and McDonnell have long gone.
Undoubtedly true but I know a lot of Labour supporters who said the same thing about Tony Blair ...
End of the day, Labour supporters are much more ready to hold their noses.
Apparently Hugh Grant is canvassing in London,going door to door to warn against the terrifying prospect of a Boris Johnson government,not sure it will change anything.
I hope he gets a Love Actually gag on every doorstep.
Interesting, we have had 2 decent polls for the Tories today and the betting line hasn't shifted.
I, for one, have been looking at RobD's graph every update hoping to see the gap stabilize. It finally happened yesterday/today ... every additional day the gap fails to close any further from now until GE day will make me breath slightly easier but I guess after 2017 nobody wants to conclude that Labour can't rise further.
I am still extremely concerned that Labour can squeeze Lib Dems some more, where as the Tories are relying on flat cap Fred and friends to change the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
Absolutely ... when the dust settles on this GE and the analysis is done the most fascinating thing will be to what extent traditional loyalites / habits remained intact. I share your nervousness. Lib Dems/Remainers will vote Labour in a heartbeat despite Corbyn but visceral hatred of the Tories will make it tough for dyed-in-the-wool Labour voters to put their cross in that box. Do they despise all that Corbyn stands for enough to vote for "Boris" to deliver Brexit - that is the question on which the GE rests.
Indeed. I am still expecting a lot of Lab-Tory switchers to not materialise and spoil Johnson's fanbois best fantasies. Every outcome of this election is potentially a loss for the UK. Corbyn=big economic disaster. Johnson + Brexit= economic disaster. Hung parliament = political disaster.
You know the chap currently visiting London became the President of the United States because rust-belt Democrats overcame the habit of a lifetime to vote for him, right?
Yes, and that is what I *think* will happen here (at least to some extent). I'm not sure why it didn't happen in 2017 (or was it masked by Remainer tactical voting?) but in 2019, following another 2 years of dicking about over Brexit, it might. Then again, although we share many of the same "culture war" influencing factors, the UK is not the USA - tribal voting is more entrenched here.
In 2017 Corbyn was still pretending to be in favour of leaving the EU, while Remainers projected their own fantasies onto him as the only opposition to May who definitely wanted to Leave. This time around Corbyn actually merits a decent chunk of the Remain vote (insofar as he merits anything), but Leavers rightly feel betrayed.
Comments
>This figure has now increased to 71%, and there has not been a corresponding change among 2017 Tory voters.
Lots more vote to squeeze.
https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1201823643229204480?s=20
ICM: Lead unchanged.
Kantar: Lead +1
YouGov: Lead unchanged.
Dare we hope that Labour's running out of Momentum?
Claire Wright always has a blizard of posters. I saw them in 2017. It is partly how she has got to where she has got to - I think most of her voters have a poster up.
Given the incredible facts of your lifetime as you have related them to us, I can appreciate the confusion, and no doubt the redditors of r/Byronic are even now filling the subreddit with many enconia for international crossdresser male models transitioning to be a woman who have recently visited Antarctica. But sadly we are not among their number.
However distressing it is to us, we must deal with you as we find you. No doubt you will one day reveal yourself to us in your full underpants-wearing glory, and I'm sure I speak for us all when I say that that image will be indelibly imprinted upon our mind. But until then we must suffer the lack.
Marquee_Mark: any comments?
With respect to your condemnation of the dreadful Corbyn and praise for the equally dreadful Johnson, can I point you in the biblical direction of Matthew 7. 3-5 Amen.
The leaders agreeing to a single interview with each major channel (interviewer decided by broadcaster) is a far better way of seeing politicians forensically challenged.
But not many more of them to endure.
CON hold. CON win every seat in SW outside Exeter and Bristol. Including a GAIN in Plymouth Sutton.
If they’d asked about the handsy Royal...
Given Corbyn's abysmal favorability ratings, I would in any case expect relatively few habitual Labour voters to be supporting the party for any reason other than out of a resigned sense of electoral pragmatism in the absence of more moderate choices. And likewise I would expect that a number of Tory supporters and particularly Tory Remainers are resigned to voting Tory from a pragmatic appreciation of the risk that an old school Marxist could otherwise end up with the keys to No 10 rather than out of any enthusiasm for Johnson.
I have said I think the Tories need to be showing 10+ leads right up to polling day to be on the safe side.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/03/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-foreign-policy-074193
For Labour , Johnson’s big on crime and terrorists hasn’t moved the dial and for the Tories they maintain a stable lead with no sign of Labour making any progress .
The Green vote though at 4% is unlikely to be replicated on Election Day with that most likely to be squeezed by Labour , and there’s still a bit more room for Labour to squeeze the Lib Dems .
At the moment the Tories barring something bizarre will hit at least 40% , it’s really all about what Labour can do to narrow that .
With Christmas approaching I wouldn't be surprised if focus actually drifts away from the election...not us lot of course, we'll still be obsessing about sub-samples involving only Aunt Gladys and her friend Mavis.
My gut feeling is Labour are running out of road and they've stalled on the low to mid 30's which should leave just enough headroom for a Tory majority...barring any clown car moments from Boris.
No I've been speaking to people in the constituency too about Claire - people I'd have expected to be natural tory supporters. She has a lot of support. The 2017-19 parliament has made people more prone to support her, not less and she's been campaigning tirelessly for two years. Last time out she had a 4.5% swing from the tories. Now that Hugo Swire has stood down, she's pushing the newbie hard and she has tactical voting support too.
You can rubbish this if you like but I'm placing it as a hot tip for those on here who like betting without blinkers.
What a field.
He has form.
I voted remain and would have been much happier if we were staying in. An Ed Miliband type leader of Labour would probably have me voting Lib Dem without too many qualms. Jeremy Corbyn is altogether different. I am old enough to remember the end of the Seventies and the chaos of Labour relations at that time: I don’t want a government that thinks it was a golden age. I remember the IRA’s bombing campaign: I don’t want a Prime Minister whose response to the Brighton Bombing was to invite IRA leaders to Parliament. I don’t want a Prime Minister who instinctively sides with Britain’s enemies. I don’t want a Prime Minister who can’t see the antisemitism around him.
Do I want Boris to be Prime Minister? No, I think he will probably end up beIng a disaster. But better him than Corbyn.
Thousands and thousands of people out enjoying themselves and probably not giving as much as five seconds of their time to politics.
Tick tock, tick tock...
It won't make any difference to the election outcome but it will matter afterwards because we all know why he daren't risk the interview. To be fair many people who will vote for him know he's not up to the job. It won't matter next week but it will matter during the next 5 years.
While we're being inappropriate i've got a confession to make...i'm falling in love with Kate McCann.
Once day I was normal, then I register on here and now i'm obsessed with a political correspondent.
I can see Labour squeezing around 2% out of the Lib Dems and 1% out of the Greens . It’s touch and go because Labour might be overperforming in parts of the country like London and likely underperforming in the Midlands and the North .
The Tory share has remained incredibly robust for the entire campaign, and unless there's a last minute fuck up from Boris, I reckon it's all but over now.
https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-tories-maintain-poll-lead-but-2017-labour-voters-come-round-to-supporting-corbyn-11877389
DIg into the piece and there are some nuggets for them
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uOMCb0JYkI
I expect that will be the last debate Boris will take part in
And 'not as bad as Zimbabwe', which had interest rates of 65,000% and life expectancies worse than 14th century England (both within living memory) is damning with faint praise.
Mr. Alistair, easily done.
Of course, we all know that the sums of money involved would never materialise, just like all the other pledges they've made. But still. I reckon Corbyn is just about desperate enough to say anything now, no matter how far fetched.
Or it could implode immediately on live TV as a desperate old man literally starts making up magic money on the spot as he begs for a few more votes to avoid oblivion...
Voters don't like desperation.
The same could have been said of Scotland 10 years ago. When these things break, the break fast...
I'm not sure they've stalled.
Labour on the other hand have somehow got to try and stitch their leaver and reamainer cohorts together with a future position on the EU that would appear to enrage one group or the other.
Lib Dem's will be fine as will the odds-and-sods parties.
Only Burgon has the talent (sic) to be a worthy successor to Corbyn.
https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/police-alerted-plymouth-labour-party-3602445
It will burn and burn and burn all the way to Dec 12th. And as I've mentioned many times, it's FAR more important to Labour Leavers than Brexit.
Bet accordingly ...
End of the day, Labour supporters are much more ready to hold their noses.
The result is a big net negative for Labour...