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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now the YouGov MRP projection – a CON majority of 68

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121

    I think this is very bad for Johnson.

    If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.

    LOL! If Con was on course to lose the election that would be bad news. But Con being on course to win the election is bad news as well?

    Seems like whatever happens its a terrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories on PB sometimes. ;)

    If I was Boris I know I'd prefer this MRP to the 2017 MRP anyway. ;)
  • Controversial take time
    Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

    I think/hope you're right.

    The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

    That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    The data is not old, it's based on a Tory lead of 11%, which is where yougov is at the moment.

    A lot of straw clutching going on
  • Should this be PB's new masthead??

    "Polls can’t tell you what is actually going to happen on polling day.”

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1199827542741401600
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited November 2019
    Nope, Yougov shows Boris doing a Trump, getting an above average swing in white working class areas full of marginal Leave voting seats
  • camel said:

    llef said:

    Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon.
    I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value.
    Camel should be happy!

    Yes, 5/1 in Ynys Mon would be up there with my 2017 Hallam surprise. I have 3s on North Norfolk too,
    If this was the election result it would be bittersweet. Betting-wise, literally as good as it gets. Politically speaking, upsetting.
    I expect some movement over the next 13 days though.
    Anglesey? Conservative? :D:D:D:D They have won it twice in the last 100 years (1979 & 83) and the current Lab MP is sitting on a 5,000 majority..,
  • Controversial take time
    Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

    I think/hope you're right.

    The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

    That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.
    It certainly gives the lie to "Tory fake news" when Corbyn waves 451 pages of it!
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    PaulM said:

    MRP has Leigh as Con Gain.

    No. Just no. Leigh is not blue.

    Leigh isn't going Tory. No chance. And I wonder whether that points to the shortcomings of the MRP approach - places like Leigh demographically should not be as staunch Labour as they are - negligible BAME, above average home ownership etc But 100 years of Labour MPs and Labour councillors has to count for something
    Cough. Scotland. Cough.
    True, but places like Coatbridge went SNP, not Tory, and the basic pitch was that Scottish Labour weren't being anti-Tory enough.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    A cautionary note for blues

    2017 MRP was bad for Tories because nobody believed it
    2919 could be bad if everyone believes it
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    camel said:

    llef said:

    Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon.
    I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value.
    Camel should be happy!

    Yes, 5/1 in Ynys Mon would be up there with my 2017 Hallam surprise. I have 3s on North Norfolk too,
    If this was the election result it would be bittersweet. Betting-wise, literally as good as it gets. Politically speaking, upsetting.
    I expect some movement over the next 13 days though.
    Anglesey? Conservative? :D:D:D:D They have won it twice in the last 100 years (1979 & 83) and the current Lab MP is sitting on a 5,000 majority..,
    5,000 doesn't sound like a lot.
  • *** Betting Post ***

    Sky Bet Ynys Mon Con 4/1
  • HYUFD said:

    Nope, Yougov shows Boris doing a Trump, getting an above average swing in white working class areas full of marginal Leave voting seats
    You are your own worst enemy. Please don't put Boris and Trump in the same sentence. 🙄
  • Controversial take time
    Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

    I think/hope you're right.

    The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

    That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.
    I bet Jezza never read it....just like the Withdrawal Act...and probably still thinks what he said was true, because his advisers told him and it is the biased media again.
  • Having just watched the Jezza interview, I know why he only managed to D's in his A-levels (despite going to one of the best state schools)....
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    BluerBlue said:

    Controversial take time
    Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

    I think/hope you're right.

    The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

    That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.
    It certainly gives the lie to "Tory fake news" when Corbyn waves 451 pages of it!
    The problem for Corbyn wasn't just that it was bullshit. It was that the reason it was bullshit could easily be explained in a few words. Claiming Boris was selling the NHS with documents from before he was Prime Minister was obviously laughable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    While I think most of that is true, his third point is not a caveat at all, it's an opinion about which one looks best.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Last time round the average error for Tory/Labour was 0.06% per seat :o
  • Controversial take time
    Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

    I think/hope you're right.

    The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

    That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.
    I bet Jezza never read it....just like the Withdrawal Act...and probably still thinks what he said was true, because his advisers told him and it is the biased media again.
    I think its pretty certain Jezza never read it. Even if he had I'm not sure he'd understand it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Nope, Yougov shows Boris doing a Trump, getting an above average swing in white working class areas full of marginal Leave voting seats
    You are your own worst enemy. Please don't put Boris and Trump in the same sentence. 🙄
    You may not like it but their voter coalitions are similar, winning big swings in white working class ex industrial areas and towns in the North and Midlands or Pennsylvania and the Midwest but losing some upper middle class voters in big cities and wealthy suburbs
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    nunu2 said:

    The data is not old, it's based on a Tory lead of 11%, which is where yougov is at the moment.

    A lot of straw clutching going on
    19 to 26 Nov so some a week old but up to the same end day as Comres and after ICM
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    Should this be PB's new masthead??

    "Polls can’t tell you what is actually going to happen on polling day.”

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1199827542741401600

    The BBC really needs to stop having on activists that pretend to be journalists.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Last time round the average error for Tory/Labour was 0.06% per seat :o

    Witchcraft.
    Was that for their initial MRP or for the final one? It did change didn't it.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Having just watched the Jezza interview, I know why he only managed to D's in his A-levels (despite going to one of the best state schools)....

    *two 😂
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    camel said:

    llef said:

    Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon.
    I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value.
    Camel should be happy!

    Yes, 5/1 in Ynys Mon would be up there with my 2017 Hallam surprise. I have 3s on North Norfolk too,
    If this was the election result it would be bittersweet. Betting-wise, literally as good as it gets. Politically speaking, upsetting.
    I expect some movement over the next 13 days though.
    Anglesey? Conservative? :D:D:D:D They have won it twice in the last 100 years (1979 & 83) and the current Lab MP is sitting on a 5,000 majority..,
    I don't think they've ever won Newcastle under Lyme, but they're pretty strong favourites to win that of course, strange how things develop.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2019

    Controversial take time
    Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

    I think/hope you're right.

    The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

    That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.
    I bet Jezza never read it....just like the Withdrawal Act...and probably still thinks what he said was true, because his advisers told him and it is the biased media again.
    I think its pretty certain Jezza never read it. Even if he had I'm not sure he'd understand it.
    I can only imagine what a shit show his red box will be if he ever becomes PM. Gordo reported couldn't manage at all with the constant demands / speed required and he wasn't a total dunce.
  • *** Batting Post ***

    Betfair Erith Con 9/1

    I don't think they will win but the MRP has them only 3% behind.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,995

    Just watching the Corbyn interview, what is really telling is he has no idea about the financial side of things. McDonnell has clearly told him x,y and z and Jezza is so dense he has thought that it doesn't sound quite right.
    He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.

    Boris would be equally, if not even more vague, this is why he can't do Neil interview, unless the Tories can get assurances from the BBC that Neil will only ask easy questions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Gabs3 said:

    Should this be PB's new masthead??

    "Polls can’t tell you what is actually going to happen on polling day.”

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1199827542741401600

    The BBC really needs to stop having on activists that pretend to be journalists.
    So long as they are correctly identified there's no issue.
  • Just watching the Corbyn interview, what is really telling is he has no idea about the financial side of things. McDonnell has clearly told him x,y and z and Jezza is so dense he has thought that it doesn't sound quite right.
    He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.

    Boris would be equally, if not even more vague, this is why he can't do Neil interview, unless the Tories can get assurances from the BBC that Neil will only ask easy questions.
    Boris problem is laziness / thinking he can wing it because he has done so for most of his life.
  • Controversial take time
    Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

    I think/hope you're right.

    The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

    That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.
    I bet Jezza never read it....just like the Withdrawal Act...and probably still thinks what he said was true, because his advisers told him and it is the biased media again.
    I think its pretty certain Jezza never read it. Even if he had I'm not sure he'd understand it.
    I can only imagine what a shit show his red box will be if he ever becomes PM. Gordo reported couldn't manage at all with the constant demands / speed required and he wasn't a total dunce.
    Could be the opposite problem as Gordo had though. Gordo apparently wanted to micromanage so got bogged on a few items then the others backed up. I'd imagine Corbyn would just sign whatever he was told to sign without thinking or reading.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zQ55S-DJsM
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    HYUFD said:

    Nope, Yougov shows Boris doing a Trump, getting an above average swing in white working class areas full of marginal Leave voting seats
    You are your own worst enemy. Please don't put Boris and Trump in the same sentence. 🙄
    Can I add NHS? Boris, Trump, NHS.
    Hang on what’s missing? Our Farage!
    Trump, Boris, Farage. Our NHS.
    Actually you are wrong this time a Thomo, HY is right, Conservatives have rarely been so popular on the football terraces of Yorkshire grounds. They called democratic wall Trump busted through his brexit states, Boris is cutting through the same way with the same right wing populism and nationalism, and anti immigration ticket that is brexit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    I'm doing a spreadsheet with the change in Labour share by constituency, unless it's already been done.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    edited November 2019
    Looking at Newcastle under Lyme I see one of TissuePrice's predecessors in the seat was Spencer Horsey de Horsey. What a great name!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spencer_Horsey_de_Horsey
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    Pulpstar said:

    Last time round the average error for Tory/Labour was 0.06% per seat :o

    Witchcraft.
    Was that for their initial MRP or for the final one? It did change didn't it.
    Alastair (From Edinburgh) numbers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006

    *** Betting Post ***

    Sky Bet Ynys Mon Con 4/1

    Probably won't last long after the Tories are shown 7% ahead in the study.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Stella Creasy has had a baby girl today, which is lovely news, especially given her previous miscarriages.
  • I posted a week ago suggesting backing the seat spread of Labour to be above 208 on sporting index.

    While suspended at the moment, probably until tomorrow morning. It was sitting on buy at 211.

    I would seriously suggest this. Polls are tightening and tactical voting is going to be high, i believe Labour will finish around the 260 mark.
  • Controversial take time
    Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

    I think/hope you're right.

    The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

    That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.
    I bet Jezza never read it....just like the Withdrawal Act...and probably still thinks what he said was true, because his advisers told him and it is the biased media again.
    I think its pretty certain Jezza never read it. Even if he had I'm not sure he'd understand it.
    I can only imagine what a shit show his red box will be if he ever becomes PM. Gordo reported couldn't manage at all with the constant demands / speed required and he wasn't a total dunce.
    Could be the opposite problem as Gordo had though. Gordo apparently wanted to micromanage so got bogged on a few items then the others backed up. I'd imagine Corbyn would just sign whatever he was told to sign without thinking or reading.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zQ55S-DJsM
    My understanding was not only the micromanaging, but he was used to having weeks / months to prepare for set pieces like the budget and instead the stuff in the red box requires a decision that day.

    So what happened was they put stuff in there, he took an age to read through, claimed he wanted to look at it more, end of the day he didn't finish, and they then had to put it back in the next day. There was a famous photo of when he left of piles of paperwork he hadn't got around to signing off as the backlog had grown and grown.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    camel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Con Gain Wakefield, not particularly close either.

    I'll stake my trousers that this will not happen in two weeks time.
    You will have to eat them! 😮
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Controversial take time
    Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

    I think/hope you're right.

    The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

    That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.
    I bet Jezza never read it....just like the Withdrawal Act...and probably still thinks what he said was true, because his advisers told him and it is the biased media again.
    I think its pretty certain Jezza never read it. Even if he had I'm not sure he'd understand it.
    Perhaps he's having a problem with the new glasses
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2019

    Controversial take time
    Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

    I think/hope you're right.

    The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

    That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.
    I bet Jezza never read it....just like the Withdrawal Act...and probably still thinks what he said was true, because his advisers told him and it is the biased media again.
    I think its pretty certain Jezza never read it. Even if he had I'm not sure he'd understand it.
    Perhaps he's having a problem with the new glasses
    Even with Google Glass or Hololens, I don't think it would solve Jezza's shortcomings in the brain department.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Andy_JS said:

    Some of the best holds for Labour according to the model: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Canterbury, Croydon Central, Reading East, Bridgend, Gower, Newport West, Lincoln, Gedling, Lancaster.

    Lincoln is the one that seems the most anomalous.

    The Lincoln tory PPC is ex MP Karl McCartney who is *ahem* a controversial choice. I have a labour hold here.

    For more information on the colourful career of Karl McCartney, simply enter the phare "Karl McCartney" into Google. It's quite entertaining.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Gabs3 said:

    Should this be PB's new masthead??

    "Polls can’t tell you what is actually going to happen on polling day.”

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1199827542741401600

    The BBC really needs to stop having on activists that pretend to be journalists.
    The BBC is populated with people pretending to be journalists so they likely wouldn't recognise a journalist if one slipped in
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds
    Looking at this big seat poll, not all those labour holds look credible on such a bad night, and many of the tory gains not credible on any night. This taking Labour seats because they voted leave thing was talked up and didn’t happen two years ago. Shippers suggests anti Semitic plays bigger this time. You might say, yet again, it didn’t happen last time because May messed election up. It still feels to me though that the truth is, when it comes to it, many labour leave voters 2016 are labour GE voters in GE.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Ochil and Perthshire South,
    Tories 41%

    SNP 40%. Close
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    RobD said:

    camel said:

    llef said:

    Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon.
    I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value.
    Camel should be happy!

    Yes, 5/1 in Ynys Mon would be up there with my 2017 Hallam surprise. I have 3s on North Norfolk too,
    If this was the election result it would be bittersweet. Betting-wise, literally as good as it gets. Politically speaking, upsetting.
    I expect some movement over the next 13 days though.
    Anglesey? Conservative? :D:D:D:D They have won it twice in the last 100 years (1979 & 83) and the current Lab MP is sitting on a 5,000 majority..,
    5,000 doesn't sound like a lot.
    It is by North Wales standards.
  • Controversial take time
    Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

    I think/hope you're right.

    The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

    That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.
    I bet Jezza never read it....just like the Withdrawal Act...and probably still thinks what he said was true, because his advisers told him and it is the biased media again.
    I think its pretty certain Jezza never read it. Even if he had I'm not sure he'd understand it.
    I can only imagine what a shit show his red box will be if he ever becomes PM. Gordo reported couldn't manage at all with the constant demands / speed required and he wasn't a total dunce.
    Could be the opposite problem as Gordo had though. Gordo apparently wanted to micromanage so got bogged on a few items then the others backed up. I'd imagine Corbyn would just sign whatever he was told to sign without thinking or reading.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zQ55S-DJsM
    My understanding was not only the micromanaging, but he was used to having weeks / months to prepare for set pieces like the budget and instead the stuff in the red box requires a decision that day.

    So what happened was they put stuff in there, he took an age to read through, claimed he wanted to look at it more, end of the day he didn't finish, and they then had to put it back in the next day. There was a famous photo of when he left of piles of paperwork he hadn't got around to signing off as the backlog had grown and grown.
    I don't see Corbyn having the same problem. Milne says he should sign something, he signs it.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    The 75 Lab-Con battlegrounds and the 30 LD battlegrounds https://ukelect.wordpress.com/2019/11/27/the-key-seats/

    Two weeks to go, they shouldn't be spending their time/money anywhere else.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    edited November 2019
    *** Betting Post ***

    Betfair Bedford Lab 5/2
    Betfair Lincoln Lab 5/2
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Pulpstar said:

    Last time round, Tories outperformed the MRP by 2.2% on average, Labour 2.1%, Plaid 0.9%.

    Everyone else underperformed; SNP 1.4%, Lib Dems 1.9%, UKIP 1.6%, Greens 0.5%.

    The question is, has yougov implemented changes to their model to reflect last time's errors? If so, we could be compensating twice. And was last time's variance due to random error, in which case there might be two lots of adjustments on a number that's actually right...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    egg said:

    What an absolute bell-end he is. Middle class overgrown schoolboy cosplaying as a member of the proletariat.
    Well he has moved on from cosplaying as a violent anarchic....
    He sounds drunk.
    And as dozy as ever

    Cough Scotland Cough
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds
    Looking at this big seat poll, not all those labour holds look credible on such a bad night, and many of the tory gains not credible on any night. This taking Labour seats because they voted leave thing was talked up and didn’t happen two years ago. Shippers suggests anti Semitic plays bigger this time. You might say, yet again, it didn’t happen last time because May messed election up. It still feels to me though that the truth is, when it comes to it, many labour leave voters 2016 are labour GE voters in GE.
    They aren't this time as Boris is a Leaver, May was a Remainer and Corbyn has not delivered Brexit as he promised in 2017 while Boris will
  • egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds
    Looking at this big seat poll, not all those labour holds look credible on such a bad night, and many of the tory gains not credible on any night. This taking Labour seats because they voted leave thing was talked up and didn’t happen two years ago. Shippers suggests anti Semitic plays bigger this time. You might say, yet again, it didn’t happen last time because May messed election up. It still feels to me though that the truth is, when it comes to it, many labour leave voters 2016 are labour GE voters in GE.
    As I have said often. Two years ago Corbyn effectively neutralised Brexit in Leave seats by promising he would make sure we left. He cannot do that this time.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Just watching the Corbyn interview, what is really telling is he has no idea about the financial side of things. McDonnell has clearly told him x,y and z and Jezza is so dense he has thought that it doesn't sound quite right.
    He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.

    He was clearly talking shite, either lying through his teeth or completely ignorant of the facts.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm doing a spreadsheet with the change in Labour share by constituency, unless it's already been done.

    Where are your spreadsheets available Andy?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    camel said:

    llef said:

    Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon.
    I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value.
    Camel should be happy!

    Yes, 5/1 in Ynys Mon would be up there with my 2017 Hallam surprise. I have 3s on North Norfolk too,
    If this was the election result it would be bittersweet. Betting-wise, literally as good as it gets. Politically speaking, upsetting.
    I expect some movement over the next 13 days though.
    Anglesey? Conservative? :D:D:D:D They have won it twice in the last 100 years (1979 & 83) and the current Lab MP is sitting on a 5,000 majority..,
    Indeed. Ynys Mon is my comedy bet. Though both of today's MRPs share my sense of humour.

    As you can see, the tory PPC is a local lass with a long record of electoral success in Wales:

    "The Conservatives have chosen the Chair of Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham Conservatives to stand in the Ynys Môn constituency.
    Virginia Ann Crosbie is a maths teacher has lived in West Sussex for 10 years with her husband and three children. Her Grandfather was from Merthyr Tydfil, and her father from Monmouth. She has previously stood in the Rhondda constituency, winning 10% of the vote in 2017 which she describes on her website as an “exceptional result in a challenging election”.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2019
    Floater said:

    Just watching the Corbyn interview, what is really telling is he has no idea about the financial side of things. McDonnell has clearly told him x,y and z and Jezza is so dense he has thought that it doesn't sound quite right.
    He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.

    He was clearly talking shite, either lying through his teeth or completely ignorant of the facts.
    I think he is just completely ignorant of the facts. Somebody more switched on would have been able to counter some of what Neil was saying about tax take etc with some carefully chosen facts from the like of Piketty famous book and / or the elephant chart. Instead it was they pay a lot, I think, they can pay more.
  • Gabs3 said:

    Should this be PB's new masthead??

    "Polls can’t tell you what is actually going to happen on polling day.”

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1199827542741401600

    The BBC really needs to stop having on activists that pretend to be journalists.
    Put her up against Sir John Curtice, David Denver, Peter Kellner and the ghost of Tony King.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited November 2019
    Look at that map, big Tory gains north of Watford, none at all in the South bar Eastbourne and only 2 in London, Dagenham and Kensington.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199816048037502981?s=20

    This election could see the Tories becoming more like the GOP as their vote becomes more working class and northern and less middle class and southern, any losses they do make though to Liberals in London and the South mainly (bar 3 to the SNP)
  • GIN1138 said:

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199812755815124992

    Didn't another poll show the opposite?
  • camel said:

    camel said:

    llef said:

    Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon.
    I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value.
    Camel should be happy!

    Yes, 5/1 in Ynys Mon would be up there with my 2017 Hallam surprise. I have 3s on North Norfolk too,
    If this was the election result it would be bittersweet. Betting-wise, literally as good as it gets. Politically speaking, upsetting.
    I expect some movement over the next 13 days though.
    Anglesey? Conservative? :D:D:D:D They have won it twice in the last 100 years (1979 & 83) and the current Lab MP is sitting on a 5,000 majority..,
    Indeed. Ynys Mon is my comedy bet. Though both of today's MRPs share my sense of humour.

    As you can see, the tory PPC is a local lass with a long record of electoral success in Wales:

    "The Conservatives have chosen the Chair of Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham Conservatives to stand in the Ynys Môn constituency.
    Virginia Ann Crosbie is a maths teacher has lived in West Sussex for 10 years with her husband and three children. Her Grandfather was from Merthyr Tydfil, and her father from Monmouth. She has previously stood in the Rhondda constituency, winning 10% of the vote in 2017 which she describes on her website as an “exceptional result in a challenging election”.
    When Keith Best won Anglesey in 1979 I think he was also elected the same day as a councillor in Brighton.

    Well it might not have been him but there was certainly somebody who was elected as a councillor on the same day as he was unexpectedly elected an MP in a totally different place.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Floater said:

    Just watching the Corbyn interview, what is really telling is he has no idea about the financial side of things. McDonnell has clearly told him x,y and z and Jezza is so dense he has thought that it doesn't sound quite right.
    He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.

    He was clearly talking shite, either lying through his teeth or completely ignorant of the facts.
    I think he is just completely ignorant of the facts. Somebody more switched on would have been able to counter some of what Neil was saying about tax take etc with some carefully chosen facts from the like of Piketty famous book and / or the elephant chart. Instead it was they pay a lot, I think, they can pay more.
    I'm possibly alone in thinking Johnson would survive Brillo unscathed. The format is short - maybe 3 substantive questions - and frankly Corbyn pretty much survived despite being hopelessly out of his depth on economic matters.



  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds
    Looking at this big seat poll, not all those labour holds look credible on such a bad night, and many of the tory gains not credible on any night. This taking Labour seats because they voted leave thing was talked up and didn’t happen two years ago. Shippers suggests anti Semitic plays bigger this time. You might say, yet again, it didn’t happen last time because May messed election up. It still feels to me though that the truth is, when it comes to it, many labour leave voters 2016 are labour GE voters in GE.
    As I have said often. Two years ago Corbyn effectively neutralised Brexit in Leave seats by promising he would make sure we left. He cannot do that this time.
    Yeah that’s a good point.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2019
    camel said:

    Floater said:

    Just watching the Corbyn interview, what is really telling is he has no idea about the financial side of things. McDonnell has clearly told him x,y and z and Jezza is so dense he has thought that it doesn't sound quite right.
    He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.

    He was clearly talking shite, either lying through his teeth or completely ignorant of the facts.
    I think he is just completely ignorant of the facts. Somebody more switched on would have been able to counter some of what Neil was saying about tax take etc with some carefully chosen facts from the like of Piketty famous book and / or the elephant chart. Instead it was they pay a lot, I think, they can pay more.
    I'm possibly alone in thinking Johnson would survive Brillo unscathed. The format is short - maybe 3 substantive questions - and frankly Corbyn pretty much survived despite being hopelessly out of his depth on economic matters.



    Boris will do his usual bluster and he can't help himself when he goes into that mode by telling some story with iffy truth. Neil does his homework like no other political interviewer in the UK and is too switched on to not know if it is BS that Boris is trying to get away with.

    I know people point to how he charmed Paxman, but when he did Paxman was just mailing it in every night at Newsnight.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    camel said:

    Floater said:

    Just watching the Corbyn interview, what is really telling is he has no idea about the financial side of things. McDonnell has clearly told him x,y and z and Jezza is so dense he has thought that it doesn't sound quite right.
    He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.

    He was clearly talking shite, either lying through his teeth or completely ignorant of the facts.
    I think he is just completely ignorant of the facts. Somebody more switched on would have been able to counter some of what Neil was saying about tax take etc with some carefully chosen facts from the like of Piketty famous book and / or the elephant chart. Instead it was they pay a lot, I think, they can pay more.
    I'm possibly alone in thinking Johnson would survive Brillo unscathed. The format is short - maybe 3 substantive questions - and frankly Corbyn pretty much survived despite being hopelessly out of his depth on economic matters.



    Boris will do his usual bluster and he can't help himself when he goes into that mode by telling some story with iffy truth. Neil does his homework like no other political interviewer in the UK and is too switched on to not know if it is BS that Boris is trying to get away with.

    I know people point to how he charmed Paxman, but when he did Paxman was just mailing it in every night at Newsnight.
    Plus Paxman then was interviewing the loveable major of London, post Olympics triumph, not the current Prime Minister seeking a mandate.
  • HYUFD said:

    Look at that map, big Tory gains north of Watford, none at all in the South bar Eastbourne and only 2 in London, Dagenham and Kensington.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199816048037502981?s=20

    This election could see the Tories becoming more like the GOP as their vote becomes more working class and northern and less middle class and southern, any losses they do make though to Liberals in London and the South mainly (bar 3 to the SNP)

    If it does happen then maybe the Tories would start to really take the North South divide seriously instead of just messing around with vanity projects and paying lip service to the majority of the country.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds
    Looking at this big seat poll, not all those labour holds look credible on such a bad night, and many of the tory gains not credible on any night. This taking Labour seats because they voted leave thing was talked up and didn’t happen two years ago. Shippers suggests anti Semitic plays bigger this time. You might say, yet again, it didn’t happen last time because May messed election up. It still feels to me though that the truth is, when it comes to it, many labour leave voters 2016 are labour GE voters in GE.
    They aren't this time as Boris is a Leaver, May was a Remainer and Corbyn has not delivered Brexit as he promised in 2017 while Boris will
    And that is the game in a nutshell. Is their politics defined by brexit, or labour. We will get a definitive answer this time, as to if you and Richard Tyndall are correct in your confidence, or I prove right that these people’s politics is primarily the economics of Labour when one or other has to give.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    Is Liverpool Riverside really going to have one of the worst changes for Labour, with a drop from 85% to 64%?
  • egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds
    Looking at this big seat poll, not all those labour holds look credible on such a bad night, and many of the tory gains not credible on any night. This taking Labour seats because they voted leave thing was talked up and didn’t happen two years ago. Shippers suggests anti Semitic plays bigger this time. You might say, yet again, it didn’t happen last time because May messed election up. It still feels to me though that the truth is, when it comes to it, many labour leave voters 2016 are labour GE voters in GE.
    They aren't this time as Boris is a Leaver, May was a Remainer and Corbyn has not delivered Brexit as he promised in 2017 while Boris will
    And that is the game in a nutshell. Is their politics defined by brexit, or labour. We will get a definitive answer this time, as to if you and Richard Tyndall are correct in your confidence, or I prove right that these people’s politics is primarily the economics of Labour when one or other has to give.
    Oh I am not confident at all. I am still scarred from last time around so I take none of this on faith. I can just see justifiable reasons why things might happen a particular way. I will be over the moon if they do work out that way but at the moment feel I am just as likely going to be crushed again.
  • HenriettaHenrietta Posts: 136
    edited November 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Last time round, Tories outperformed the MRP by 2.2% on average, Labour 2.1%, Plaid 0.9%.

    Everyone else underperformed; SNP 1.4%, Lib Dems 1.9%, UKIP 1.6%, Greens 0.5%.

    The question is, has yougov implemented changes to their model to reflect last time's errors? If so, we could be compensating twice. And was last time's variance due to random error, in which case there might be two lots of adjustments on a number that's actually right...
    I'd like to compare the distribution of their confidence intervals with last time, and in particular to look at which 50 seats they felt and feel least confident about, but for some reason they haven't put CIs in their spreadsheet as they did in 2017.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    Increases in Labour share:

    Leeds NW: +5%
    Canterbury: +2%
    Isle of Wight: +1%
    Porsmouth South: +1%
  • Andy_JS said:

    Increases in Labour share:

    Leeds NW: +5%
    Canterbury: +2%
    Isle of Wight: +1%
    Porsmouth South: +1%

    F##king students.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    egg said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds
    Looking at this big seat poll, not all those labour holds look credible on such a bad night, and many of the tory gains not credible on any night. This taking Labour seats because they voted leave thing was talked up and didn’t happen two years ago. Shippers suggests anti Semitic plays bigger this time. You might say, yet again, it didn’t happen last time because May messed election up. It still feels to me though that the truth is, when it comes to it, many labour leave voters 2016 are labour GE voters in GE.
    As I have said often. Two years ago Corbyn effectively neutralised Brexit in Leave seats by promising he would make sure we left. He cannot do that this time.
    Yeah that’s a good point.
    I suspect the tories will need to destroy BXP on the ground to have a good night. The average voter isn't that switched on. I still know of people who are intending to vote BXP in labour held marginals because they want think that will deliver Brexit - indeed many think BXP will win seats. Problem the tories have is they don't have enough ground troops in old coalfield places like NE Wales, Durham and West Yorkshire where BXP are polling 5-10%.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,646

    Andy_JS said:

    Increases in Labour share:

    Leeds NW: +5%
    Canterbury: +2%
    Isle of Wight: +1%
    Porsmouth South: +1%

    F##king students.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gV-kY9JuqDE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited November 2019
    camel said:

    egg said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds
    Looking at this big seat poll, not all those labour holds look credible on such a bad night, and many of the tory gains not credible on any night. This taking Labour seats because they voted leave thing was talked up and didn’t happen two years ago. Shippers suggests anti Semitic plays bigger this time. You might say, yet again, it didn’t happen last time because May messed election up. It still feels to me though that the truth is, when it comes to it, many labour leave voters 2016 are labour GE voters in GE.
    As I have said often. Two years ago Corbyn effectively neutralised Brexit in Leave seats by promising he would make sure we left. He cannot do that this time.
    Yeah that’s a good point.
    I suspect the tories will need to destroy BXP on the ground to have a good night. The average voter isn't that switched on. I still know of people who are intending to vote BXP in labour held marginals because they want think that will deliver Brexit - indeed many think BXP will win seats. Problem the tories have is they don't have enough ground troops in old coalfield places like NE Wales, Durham and West Yorkshire where BXP are polling 5-10%.
    BXP are also taking enough Labour votes to enable the Tories to win seats like Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Bolsover and Dagenham and Workington and West Bromwich East and West with Yougov tonight which have never elected a Tory MP before
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    HYUFD said:

    Look at that map, big Tory gains north of Watford, none at all in the South bar Eastbourne and only 2 in London, Dagenham and Kensington.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199816048037502981?s=20

    This election could see the Tories becoming more like the GOP as their vote becomes more working class and northern and less middle class and southern, any losses they do make though to Liberals in London and the South mainly (bar 3 to the SNP)

    If it does happen then maybe the Tories would start to really take the North South divide seriously instead of just messing around with vanity projects and paying lip service to the majority of the country.
    Sadly, too many of their candidates (like the one for Yns Mon) seem to actually be from the South.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Henrietta said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Last time round, Tories outperformed the MRP by 2.2% on average, Labour 2.1%, Plaid 0.9%.

    Everyone else underperformed; SNP 1.4%, Lib Dems 1.9%, UKIP 1.6%, Greens 0.5%.

    The question is, has yougov implemented changes to their model to reflect last time's errors? If so, we could be compensating twice. And was last time's variance due to random error, in which case there might be two lots of adjustments on a number that's actually right...
    I'd like to compare the distribution of their confidence intervals with last time, and in particular to look at which 50 seats they felt and feel least confident about, but for some reason they haven't put CIs in their spreadsheet as they did in 2017.
    There are a lot of *really* close LD/Con marginals in this model, many more than I would have expected. If the LDs get 17% rather than 14%, then they'll be on 20 plus seats, and if they get 12%, they could well end up down on the night.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited November 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Look at that map, big Tory gains north of Watford, none at all in the South bar Eastbourne and only 2 in London, Dagenham and Kensington.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199816048037502981?s=20

    This election could see the Tories becoming more like the GOP as their vote becomes more working class and northern and less middle class and southern, any losses they do make though to Liberals in London and the South mainly (bar 3 to the SNP)

    If it does happen then maybe the Tories would start to really take the North South divide seriously instead of just messing around with vanity projects and paying lip service to the majority of the country.
    Sadly, too many of their candidates (like the one for Yns Mon) seem to actually be from the South.
    I know the Tory candidate for West Bromwich West is council house born and lives in the West Midlands and is projected to take the seat tonight so that is not always the case
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    I would rather be in the position the conservatives are tonight than labour

    However, I am not complacent and we have 13 more days before polls open

    I intend keeping my feet on the ground and await the final verdict on the 13th December

    Lots of betting opportunitirs I assume

    Anyway time for me to say

    'Good night folks'

    Looking at the seven Clwyd seats
    Aberconwy Con 47 Lab 41
    Alyn Deeside Con 42 Lab 42
    Clwyd South Con 43 Lab 41
    Clwyd West Con 51 Lab 34
    Delyn Con 43 Lab 43
    Vale Clwyd Con 43 Lab 41
    Wrexham Con 42 Lab 38

    Does it seem plausible that the Tories could sweep all seven seats ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
  • Andy_JS said:

    Increases in Labour share:

    Leeds NW: +5%
    Canterbury: +2%
    Isle of Wight: +1%
    Porsmouth South: +1%

    Canterbury and Leeds NW both have large student populations. And tuition fees haven't even had a news cycle yet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    edited November 2019
    edit
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    edited November 2019
    MRP & Don Valley..
    We are given to believe that BJ&co will be receiving an 8% majority, or 4000 on a 2017 turnout.
    Given Flinty had a 5000 lab Maj in 2017, and is quite well thought of hereabouts for actually supporting Leave (sort of), presumably nearly all of these ex pit villagers are now voting Tory.
    This in a seat last held by a non-lab MP in 1918.
    Not coincidentally, I suspect, at this last event the Tories didn't stand..
    UGov are having a giraffe.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    The seat forecast I find most puzzling is the SNP gaining Caithness from the LDs. I'd be pretty surprised if that actually happens on election night.
  • Andy_JS said:

    The seat forecast I find most puzzling is the SNP gaining Caithness from the LDs. I'd be pretty surprised if that actually happens on election night.

    Lib Denms winning here losing everywhere....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2019
    Think of a number, double it, then triple it...
    Labour claims it would plant two billion new trees in England by 2040 if they win the general election....Labour says it will make £2.5bn available to plant the trees in a number of sites, including urban parks, farmland and schools.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50578207
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2019
    Looks like today's Labour dossier will be all the iffy stuff that Boris has said over the years...
    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50581208
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    Bedford on a knife-edge if the YouGov MRP model is right, (and would probably also mean the seat losing its number one status in the swing bellwether stakes):

    Con 40%
    Lab 39%
    LD 11%
    BRX 6%
    Grn 4%

    This would mean a swing of 1.3% from Lab to Con compared to 4.2% overall if the YouGov headline figures are correct.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    shiney2 said:

    MRP & Don Valley..
    We are given to believe that BJ&co will be receiving an 8% majority, or 4000 on a 2017 turnout.
    Given Flinty had a 5000 lab Maj in 2017, and is quite well thought of hereabouts for actually supporting Leave (sort of), presumably nearly all of these ex pit villagers are now voting Tory.
    This in a seat last held by a non-lab MP in 1918.
    Not coincidentally, I suspect, at this last event the Tories didn't stand..
    UGov are having a giraffe.

    Flint will lose.

    The problem that rebel Labour MPs have got is that their support for the Boris deal has not increased support for *them* as MPs but has hardened support for *Brexit* in their constituencies, and voters who want to "Get Brexit done" are much more likely to support Boris or Farage. In other words these MPs get no thanks at all from their constituents.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Dadge said:

    shiney2 said:

    MRP & Don Valley..
    We are given to believe that BJ&co will be receiving an 8% majority, or 4000 on a 2017 turnout.
    Given Flinty had a 5000 lab Maj in 2017, and is quite well thought of hereabouts for actually supporting Leave (sort of), presumably nearly all of these ex pit villagers are now voting Tory.
    This in a seat last held by a non-lab MP in 1918.
    Not coincidentally, I suspect, at this last event the Tories didn't stand..
    UGov are having a giraffe.

    Flint will lose.

    The problem that rebel Labour MPs have got is that their support for the Boris deal has not increased support for *them* as MPs but has hardened support for *Brexit* in their constituencies, and voters who want to "Get Brexit done" are much more likely to support Boris or Farage. In other words these MPs get no thanks at all from their constituents.
    Nice theory. Tories however have selected another non-resident as their candidate. Here today, gone tomorrow etc. We're a bit local round here.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    edited November 2019
    If the YouGov MRP gets it right again, I can see traditional opinion polls being ditched altogether in favour of MRP-type studies. (I know there is a certain overlap between the two methods).
  • egg said:

    JohnO said:

    So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?

    I think it's Harriet, isn't it?
    No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).
    Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.
    YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.
    Agreed. That'a a huge problem with MRP polling
    It was hugely exciting an hour and half ago, is it now going in a bin 😕.
    Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the 2017 YouGov MRP released significantly closer to polling day?
This discussion has been closed.