MRP has Leigh going blue (Tossup but with Con slightly in the lead). If you really believe this that Leigh will go blue you can get 7/2 on that. Surely value if this is accurate.
I do not believe this for that constituency. I can not see Leigh ever going blue unless the Tories are on 1931 style landslides.
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Tories need to communicate this, fast and hard, if they want to win. Most BXP voters must know by now that they might stop Brexit entirely, and not care, but on shares like that the Tories only need a little more squeeze., But they've squeezed a lot already.
According to the YouGov data, the Tories have a sizeable majority. There's no incentive for Brexit Party voters to make Johnson's majority any bigger. In fact they want him to have a smallish majority so that the Spartans can stop him softening Brexit.
I see from the detailed map at the YouGov site, that there are a number of 'tossup' seats. Four in the NE of Scotland, and a scattered bunch in England and Wales.
How has YouGov called them? Because if they call them CON but they go Lab/SNP/LD it might make the night interesting after all.
I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.
Well it is the combination of Brexit and willingness to vote Tory in the past, unlike the North where despite Brexit it is still a very difficult for people not to vote like they have their whole life.
Labour majorities have been tumbling for years in Northern ex-mining seats. It is only now that they are coming into play.
What this YouGov (and recent polling) does is give Labour confidence that if they keep throwing out the unfunded bribes and smears it appears to be working and the negative stuff coming back isn't having any effect.
MRP has Leigh going blue (Tossup but with Con slightly in the lead). If you really believe this that Leigh will go blue you can get 7/2 on that. Surely value if this is accurate.
I do not believe this for that constituency. I can not see Leigh ever going blue unless the Tories are on 1931 style landslides.
This is going to be the high watermark for the Cons in the MRP.
This can be a bad moment for the Conservatives 😧. More safety first campaigning like labour in 92 thinking its in the bag. 😕 And this whole horrid thing now serves as tackyvote battle map dropped on remainers like mana. But are they really set for headline majority if election was tomorrow, based on one polling firm whilst others disagree, and as the PB experts look at each seat they are saying, really? The number of what build it responses sounds like a lot, but divided by 650 constituency’s? Hm. 🤔. Not that iffy constituency polling based on low numbers again? I stand by my suspicion this is a dangerous poll for the Tories.
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
Um, although I think that's a rather bold statement ... I do think this poll is not as great for the tories as they might have hoped.
Three other pollsters have their lead at 7% (not the 11% on which this is based) and narrowing.
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.
Not even sure of regaining second place platforms on which to build in many of them. I really don't think they can go many more years in the SW like that, surely at some point the local authority base gets eroded if for a decade at parliamentary time the LDs are not the anti-Tory choice?
I see from the detailed map at the YouGov site, that there are a number of 'tossup' seats. Four in the NE of Scotland, and a scattered bunch in England and Wales.
How has YouGov called them? Because if they call them CON but they go Lab/SNP/LD it might make the night interesting after all.
*clutches straws*
Scotland looks pretty unpredictable. At least six toss-ups there.
Looks like Tories could be between 6-12 seats there.
It ain't going to happen. This is based on Tories winning by 11 and the campaign is going all Labour's way over the past week.
For the Tories, all they can hope for is no more slip-ups and hope that enough tight seats go their way. They have to also hope that the Lib Dems can get a bit of traction and take back a few % from Labour.
Not so sure the campaign is going all labours way . The AN interview was car crash tv , the NHS lies from Corbyn has unravelled within 8 hours . Labour has used up its remaining ammo . And that’s not to mention the real election going on below the radar in the marginals with social media and targeted campaigning . Corbyns wheels are coming off his wagon . Nothing is guaranteed , but read the runes, labour are a busted flush , when the likes of good men like Ian Austin are saying vote Boris to save us from Corbyn You know it’s over. If the British people rejected EdM then sure as hell they will reject JCorbyn . Barring BJ getting caught with a sheep in Downing Street it’s game over .
Yes the NE isn't fertile hunting ground but bishop auck, Darlington and stockton go I think and Sedgefield and Blyth valley and tynemouth seem in play
However the first results of the night will let us know what's ahead because if Labour's lead in the Sunderlands is slashed but they hold on we'll know Boris is on course for a majority. If there's very little change on 2017 its all going tititicus verticus and if any of the Sunderlands should actually go Blue it's a Con landslide.
I see from the detailed map at the YouGov site, that there are a number of 'tossup' seats. Four in the NE of Scotland, and a scattered bunch in England and Wales.
How has YouGov called them? Because if they call them CON but they go Lab/SNP/LD it might make the night interesting after all.
*clutches straws*
If you look at the chart/graph on the toss-up seats, they usually have one of the parties slightly ahead. That's how they called them I guess. They use the phrase toss-up when it's less than around 3% either way I think.
What this YouGov (and recent polling) does is give Labour confidence that if they keep throwing out the unfunded bribes and smears it appears to be working and the negative stuff coming back isn't having any effect.
I fully expect it going to the gutter from here.
I don’t think that’s right. If anything the AN interview showed these splurges of cash are drawn from no where. I think the public will rapidly lose patience with huge additional promises. Labour will just be left looking foolish. I think they’ve cooked their own goose in this respect.
A few well placed bribes works. Throwing the kitchen sink at it - well people will just begin to laugh. And they are starting to do just that.
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn.
Perception that the Conservatives aren't running a very good campaign (again).
Belief that history repeats itself.
Belief that Labour core will eventually come home to Labour.
Sense that Corbyn and Labour are getting traction.
Nerves about opinion polls these days.
And above all, probably, narrowing polls with Labour's share improving.
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.
It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.
No, but they might be swinging behind a big fat cheque arriving.
Theresa Villiers could be in trouble in Chipping Barnet.
This is possibly a result of insufficient Jews in the sample. Hendon shouldn't be near as close as the model suggests, even if the polls narrow. Chipping has fewer Jews but enough to matter - although of the three Barnet seats it's the most likely to flip, now the LDs have collapsed.
Interesting that they have Labour marginally ahead of Chuka in Cities of London & Westminster. The betting markets seem to have largely discounted Labour. Having said that, in practice I suspect Chuka will come second by a fair margin, simply because of the intensive ground game.
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.
It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.
Why do you assume the tories can’t widen the gap in the final two weeks?
constituency - Con - LD Eastbourne - 48 - 38 Wokingham - 46 - 36 Hazel Grove - 48 - 39 Edinburgh North and Leith - 21 - 12 Kensington - 37 - 29 Lewes - 47 - 41 North Norfolk - 46 - 40 St Ives - 46 - 40 Cheadle - 47 - 42 Guildford - 44 - 39 Winchester - 47 - 44 South Cambridgeshire - 42 - 40 Cheltenham - 45 - 45 Carshalton and Wallington - 40 - 41 Ceredigion - 21 - 22 Westmorland and Lonsdale - 42 - 47
7-8 near misses for the LDs there and, with MoE and micro-campaigning, and Swinson not being a Muppet, could convert into x 20 MPs, or so.
She could squeeze 3 or 4 of them I think Cheltenham and South Cambs are likely, but if the Libs get squeezed nationally by Labour I’d expect they might fall back in these seats too as the national picture becomes Boris vs Corbyn.
Exit poll called Finchely for Labour last time, don't think that's happening again, even if it is a knock down fight for second place there. I wonder if they can increase their leaflet count further!
Ironic as in Johnson refused to take part in both so why should Corbyn . The DT doesn’t bother to pretend anymore , it’s just a fan magazine for Bozo .
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
Um, although I think that's a rather bold statement ... I do think this poll is not as great for the tories as they might have hoped.
Three other pollsters have their lead at 7% (not the 11% on which this is based) and narrowing.
It's not that bold, it's what the precedent of the last election (since which nothing fundamental has changed) tells us.
The Tories need to win outright to stay in power. If we're anywhere short of a majority then the horse-trading between Labour and the other Opposition parties begins.
I reckon that the SNP and the Lib Dems (whatever they might say at the moment) will concede a Corbyn-led administration in exchange for the referendums, especially the EU vote which needs to be negotiated with the EU27 very quickly, The only possible complicating factor is if the DUP - who are very anti-Corbyn and, presumably, willing to see a crash-out Brexit by accident just so long as the Irish Sea border is binned as a result - end up holding the balance of power between the two blocs again.
The Labour surge is now underway. The prospects of a Conservative win look slight.
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.
Well it is the combination of Brexit and willingness to vote Tory in the past, unlike the North where despite Brexit it is still a very difficult for people not to vote like they have their whole life.
Labour majorities have been tumbling for years in Northern ex-mining seats. It is only now that they are coming into play.
Amusingly, Bolsover leans Conservative.
Skinner's graceless losing speech might be one worth staying up for.
Erith and Thamesmead is strangely close. Labour 10k majority in London.
Half the seat is white working-class which is good for the Tories. The other half is mainly Africans who tend not to be as good for Labour as West Indians, Pakistanis, etc. Also I seem to remember reading that they have a much lower turnout than other groups.
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.
It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.
Why do you assume the tories can’t widen the gap in the final two weeks?
Going on all of the 2017 campaign and a month of this one?
I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.
Well it is the combination of Brexit and willingness to vote Tory in the past, unlike the North where despite Brexit it is still a very difficult for people not to vote like they have their whole life.
Labour majorities have been tumbling for years in Northern ex-mining seats. It is only now that they are coming into play.
Amusingly, Bolsover leans Conservative.
Skinner's graceless losing speech might be one worth staying up for.
Leigh isn't going Tory. No chance. And I wonder whether that points to the shortcomings of the MRP approach - places like Leigh demographically should not be as staunch Labour as they are - negligible BAME, above average home ownership etc But 100 years of Labour MPs and Labour councillors has to count for something
One seat to watch where word is Labour are doing badly on the ground is Brighton Kemptown..... "likely Labour" says YouGov.
That’s the deciding post of the night for me, because I would be surprised if that happened. libdems didn’t benefit from lumpy labour vote as it goes tactical across south west last time like libdems will get this time. Is this kind of polling picking up tv enough?
Here is one question; Why are Labour not looking like winning a majority of their own, in fact they are nowhere near doing so? I mean they are literally telling the public they can make their lives hugely better, and all for almost free yet they are nowhere near holding power outright.
Leigh isn't going Tory. No chance. And I wonder whether that points to the shortcomings of the MRP approach - places like Leigh demographically should not be as staunch Labour as they are - negligible BAME, above average home ownership etc But 100 years of Labour MPs and Labour councillors has to count for something
The fear of giving Johnson a big majority might play well for Labour in some seats they’re currently forecast to lose . It might also help the Lib Dems .
Tory supporters are of course happy with the YouGov and they should be . I think most would have taken this two weeks out from the GE.
However some of the seats are very close and tactical voting isn’t factored in .
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.
It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.
Why do you assume the tories can’t widen the gap in the final two weeks?
I don't think they have it in them. They are playing it safe with their manifesto so don't have anything eye catching to offer, there's nothing new to throw at Corbyn and Boris is not as good as he thinks he is, and as long as the message is that the Tories might win a majority the Labour squeeze on the LDs will continue and they will close to within 4-6% by the vote (if a bit higher, then a shy Labour factor, because the low poll ratings going into the election show people are not enthused by them, will push up the vote a bit), and that will deny a majority and that is all that is needed.
NE Derbyshire was one seat where they got it wrong last time. They said leans Labour and the Tories won it comfortably.
That's very useful thanks. In 2017 they got ynys Mon almost spot on except overstated libs by 5% which should have been added 50/50 to con and plaid. Maybe cons are fav after all!
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.
It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.
Why do you assume the tories can’t widen the gap in the final two weeks?
I don't think they have it in them. They are playing it safe with their manifesto so don't have anything eye catching to offer, there's nothing new to throw at Corbyn and Boris is not as good as he thinks he is, and as long as the message is that the Tories might win a majority the Labour squeeze on the LDs will continue and they will close to within 4-6% by the vote (if a bit higher, then a shy Labour factor, because the low poll ratings going into the election show people are not enthused by them, will push up the vote a bit), and that will deny a majority and that is all that is needed.
The WASPI bribe wasn't in Labour’s manifesto. This is nonsense.
NE Derbyshire was one seat where they got it wrong last time. They said leans Labour and the Tories won it comfortably.
That's very useful thanks. In 2017 they got ynys Mon almost spot on except overstated libs by 5% which should have been added 50/50 to con and plaid. Maybe cons are fav after all!
It's only one seat. I don't know how many other seats they got wrong because I haven't studied it in detail.
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
The best part for the Tories about these new found northern/midland seats is... like I suspect North East Derbyshire will show, once they go blue they're probably not going back to Labour.
I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.
Well it is the combination of Brexit and willingness to vote Tory in the past, unlike the North where despite Brexit it is still a very difficult for people not to vote like they have their whole life.
Labour majorities have been tumbling for years in Northern ex-mining seats. It is only now that they are coming into play.
Amusingly, Bolsover leans Conservative.
Skinner's graceless losing speech might be one worth staying up for.
I would enjoy that very much.
But the labour team there seem so confident, what does the pollster know there own efforts doesn’t?
I see from the detailed map at the YouGov site, that there are a number of 'tossup' seats. Four in the NE of Scotland, and a scattered bunch in England and Wales.
How has YouGov called them? Because if they call them CON but they go Lab/SNP/LD it might make the night interesting after all.
*clutches straws*
Edinburgh West is a dead heat on the MRP - plenty of fun and games still to come, Scottish voters love to surprise.
The fear of giving Johnson a big majority might play well for Labour in some seats they’re currently forecast to lose . It might also help the Lib Dems .
Tory supporters are of course happy with the YouGov and they should be . I think most would have taken this two weeks out from the GE.
However some of the seats are very close and tactical voting isn’t factored in .
But equally it might help the LDs hold North Norfolk and Eastbourne if voters there don't fear Corbyn entering 10 Downing Street.
Comments
Eastbourne - 48 - 38
Wokingham - 46 - 36
Hazel Grove - 48 - 39
Edinburgh North and Leith - 21 - 12
Kensington - 37 - 29
Lewes - 47 - 41
North Norfolk - 46 - 40
St Ives - 46 - 40
Cheadle - 47 - 42
Guildford - 44 - 39
Winchester - 47 - 44
South Cambridgeshire - 42 - 40
Cheltenham - 45 - 45
Carshalton and Wallington - 40 - 41
Ceredigion - 21 - 22
Westmorland and Lonsdale - 42 - 47
Con: 34.0
Lab: 56.4
The actual result was
Con: 35.8
Lab: 56.2
MRP has Leigh going blue (Tossup but with Con slightly in the lead). If you really believe this that Leigh will go blue you can get 7/2 on that. Surely value if this is accurate.
I do not believe this for that constituency. I can not see Leigh ever going blue unless the Tories are on 1931 style landslides.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
I fully expect it going to the gutter from here.
Edit: And Darlo.
More safety first campaigning like labour in 92 thinking its in the bag. 😕
And this whole horrid thing now serves as tackyvote battle map dropped on remainers like mana.
But are they really set for headline majority if election was tomorrow, based on one polling firm whilst others disagree, and as the PB experts look at each seat they are saying, really?
The number of what build it responses sounds like a lot, but divided by 650 constituency’s? Hm. 🤔. Not that iffy constituency polling based on low numbers again?
I stand by my suspicion this is a dangerous poll for the Tories.
Three other pollsters have their lead at 7% (not the 11% on which this is based) and narrowing.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/27/jeremy-corbyn-dodges-tv-debates-disastrous-bbc-interview/
It will be.
How are the rest of your best holding up?
Find the Constituencies with the lowest LMS error between 2017 GE results and YouGov 2017 MRP.
Bet on any odds against current 1st place in the 2019 results.
Looks like Tories could be between 6-12 seats there.
A few well placed bribes works. Throwing the kitchen sink at it - well people will just begin to laugh. And they are starting to do just that.
Belief that history repeats itself.
Belief that Labour core will eventually come home to Labour.
Sense that Corbyn and Labour are getting traction.
Nerves about opinion polls these days.
And above all, probably, narrowing polls with Labour's share improving.
Con - 50
Lab - 37
Labour doing well in university places like Portsmouth, Canterbury, Cambridge, Exeter, etc.
Having said that, in practice I suspect Chuka will come second by a fair margin, simply because of the intensive ground game.
I got 15/8.
Oh wait.... for who? The Lib Dems? Probably.
The Tories need to win outright to stay in power. If we're anywhere short of a majority then the horse-trading between Labour and the other Opposition parties begins.
I reckon that the SNP and the Lib Dems (whatever they might say at the moment) will concede a Corbyn-led administration in exchange for the referendums, especially the EU vote which needs to be negotiated with the EU27 very quickly, The only possible complicating factor is if the DUP - who are very anti-Corbyn and, presumably, willing to see a crash-out Brexit by accident just so long as the Irish Sea border is binned as a result - end up holding the balance of power between the two blocs again.
The Labour surge is now underway. The prospects of a Conservative win look slight.
Skinner's graceless losing speech might be one worth staying up for.
I mean they are literally telling the public they can make their lives hugely better, and all for almost free yet they are nowhere near holding power outright.
Tory supporters are of course happy with the YouGov and they should be . I think most would have taken this two weeks out from the GE.
However some of the seats are very close and tactical voting isn’t factored in .