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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now the YouGov MRP projection – a CON majority of 68

From the Times – The first YouGov MRP projectionhttps://t.co/RycenPP2qB pic.twitter.com/X3no4gBfAO

Read the full story here

wooliedyed

No Chuka no cry

Sunil_Prasannan

Second like LAB

tlg86

Second like Swinson in leaders resigning on 13 December.

Andy_JS

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

FrancisUrquhart

It ain't going to happen. This is based on Tories winning by 11 and the campaign is going all Labour's way over the past week.

For the Tories, all they can hope for is no more slip-ups and hope that enough tight seats go their way. They have to also hope that the Lib Dems can get a bit of traction and take back a few % from Labour.

DavidL

So can we just cancel the election and take this?

tlg86

csv file from the web:

https://1drv.ms/u/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpijZ1Eob6KF9C2yun

kle4

Sean_F said:

Well, what do you know?
It turns out that Labour are not storming to victory after all.

They don't need to win, to win.

ozymandias said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ozymandias said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

For the Tories to get a majority, I don't think they can afford anymore slip ups...and have to come out fighting hard. No far, their campaign has been nearly non-existent, when you compare it to when they won in 2015, with carefully organized day by day stuff.

Pointless expending ammunition in the first few weeks. It’s the last two weeks the electorate starts paying attention. Apparently.

Expect Cons to ramp up from here. Labour used most of their ammo already.

I remember in 2017 we kept saying when is the Tory campaign going to start...when will they start concentrating their fire on the bonkers Labour policies and Corbyn history....it came with about 3 days to go to the GE and was all way too late.

Chill. This. Isn’t. 2017.

Why isn't it?

MaxPB

DavidL said:

So can we just cancel the election and take this?

Yes please!

kle4

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

Tories need to communicate this, fast and hard, if they want to win. Most BXP voters must know by now that they might stop Brexit entirely, and not care, but on shares like that the Tories only need a little more squeeze., But they've squeezed a lot already.

FrancisUrquhart

I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.

kle4

DavidL said:

So can we just cancel the election and take this?

Only way it will be borne out. The updated one will be quite different given how things are already moving along.

humbugger

FrancisUrquhart said:

It ain't going to happen. This is based on Tories winning by 11 and the campaign is going all Labour's way over the past week.

For the Tories, all they can hope for is no more slip-ups and hope that enough tight seats go their way. They have to also hope that the Lib Dems can get a bit of traction and take back a few % from Labour.

The campaign has not gone all Labour's way in the last 48 hours at all, with Corbyn and their policies being subject to considerable scrutiny and some shocking coverage. The impact of this will not be reflected in the polls yet.

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.

I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.

Andy_JS

Canterbury: leans Labour.
Hastings & Rye: leans Conservative.

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

Am I going to have to do another spreadsheet to summarise the seat forecasts?

brokenwheel

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

You should read Ashcroft's latest poll. Lots of TBPers answer 0-10% liklihood of voting Conservative, many of them came from Labour.

Alistair

tlg86 said:

csv file from the web:

https://1drv.ms/u/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpijZ1Eob6KF9C2yun

Champion

Banterman

What will all the broadcasters do when all their favourites like Chuka & Anna & Sam all have no jobs or role in public life? Who's going to push the case for rejoining the EU then?

tlg86

Westmorland & Lonsdale:
LD - 47
Con - 42
St Ives:
Con - 46
LD - 40
Richmond Park:
LD - 53
Con - 39

TheScreamingEagles

Emily Thornberry is winning by 32%

Richard_Nabavi

May I for the second time today draw the attention of political punters to Cambridge.

StuartDickson

East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.

Richard_Nabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

Emily Thornberry is winning by 32%

You can't have everything.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

Emily Thornberry is winning by 32%

Obviously. Anyone with half a brain can see Labour will never lose around there.

FrancisUrquhart

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.

I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.

Well it is the combination of Brexit and willingness to vote Tory in the past, unlike the North where despite Brexit it is still a very difficult for people not to vote like they have their whole life.

Artist

YouGov has Lib Dems 2nd in Kensington as opposed to Labour in the earlier MRP.

Richard_Tyndall

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

As others have said previously I think this might (MIGHT!) be a misreading of this. It is entirely possible that in those traditional Labour seats it is only the existence of the Brexit Party which is keeping the Conservatives in contention. It is very likely that many of those TBP voters would go to Labour rather than the Tories if TBP were not standing.

wooliedyed

Beckett!!!

kle4

HaroldO said:

Is it just me or are people less invested this time? In 2017 the GE was a huge event, this time it feels all rather hollow.

IDK, people seem just as up for it as last time as far as I can see. Maybe it's being in a safe seat, I cannot tell when things are genuinely exciting.

Alistair

Edinburgh West Tossup



I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.

But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.

I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.

GIN1138

tlg86 said:

Second like Swinson in leaders resigning on 13 December.

They have her seat as "Lean Lib-Dem" so if the Lib-Dem position gets any worse she could be out before she can resign.

Andy_JS

TheScreamingEagles said:

Emily Thornberry is winning by 32%

As low as that?

tlg86

StuartDickson said:

East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.

LD - 38
SNP - 33

brokenwheel

Banterman said:

What will all the broadcasters do when all their favourites like Chuka & Anna & Sam all have no jobs or role in public life? Who's going to push the case for rejoining the EU then?

Lol, they're always wheeling out failed politicians anyway.

Andy_JS

brokenwheel said:

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

You should read Ashcroft's latest poll. Lots of TBPers answer 0-10% liklihood of voting Conservative, many of them came from Labour.

I'm quoting directly from YouGov who say the Tories would be ahead in these seats without the Brexit Party.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199812755815124992

GIN1138

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...

FrancisUrquhart

YouGov have Labour winning Cambridge easily....The Lib Dems are f##ked if they can't even make that place close.

kle4

StuartDickson said:

East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.

One of those tactical voting sites for remainers was pretty amusing, since the stock text about who you need to vote for to get a remainer was still up insisting the LDs were necessary even as it showed it was a dead heat fight between LDs and SNP in that seat. I mean, if remaining is the critical factor it really doesn't matter there, you might as well go on other policies at the same time.

Ave_it

wooliedyed said:

Beckett!!!

Yes I can see us winning Derby S

Derby N is safe for us now even if we have a CHB swing!

bigjohnowls

Bolsover Tory Gain

tlg86

Chesterfield:

Lab - 42
Con - 36
Brexit - 9
LD - 8
Green 3

llef

Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon.
I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value.
Camel should be happy!

Andy_JS

Swinson needs to adopt a softer image pretty quickly. Her schoolmistress persona obviously isn't coming across well to voters.

nico67

Well thankfully the MRP wasn’t just based on Opinium ! Lol

Because the model can’t factor in tactical voting it’s going to be a bit of a problem .Does anyone know if we’re going to have just one more of these polls or two .

Andy_JS

Stoke Central: toss up.
Stoke North: leans Conservative.
Stoke South: safe Conservative.
Newcastle-under-Lyme: likely Conservative.

Philip_Thompson

MRP has Leigh as Con Gain.

No. Just no. Leigh is not blue.

Andrew

Alistair said:

Edinburgh West Tossup

….snip...

I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.

But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.

I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.

Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.

Casino_Royale

Looks like Richard Tice is shitting the bed for the Tories in Hartlepool.

StuartDickson

Edinburgh West a toss-up SLD/SNP, as is Caithness.

This MRP is absolutely horrific for the Lib Dems. Swinson must be a goner?

tlg86

Canterbury:

Lab - 47
Con - 43

kle4

Upper range for PC in Ceredigion looks very high. LDs really seem to struggle in Wales.

Pulpstar

Well we'll know how this has gone very very early in the night.

Con gain Yns Mons lol

Casino_Royale

Looks like Aaron will make it in N-U-L too.

brokenwheel

Pidcock safe, lolz.

BluerBlue

OH YOU BEAUTY!

Yes, I've been too chicken to check until now. And I'm still scared that 2 weeks could change the position...

GIN1138

Boris holds on! Raab hold on!

TheWhiteRabbit

If YouGov is correct, for the first time in ages, the Cons will have almost as many ultra safe (/inefficient) seats as Labour

IanB2

Although disappointing for the LibDems in terms of the headline, search through their targets and there are a fair few where the race is still on, with a close finish in store.

wooliedyed

Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

kle4

A midpoint of 67% predicted for Labour in Manchester Gorton, down nearly 10%, the losers.

Pulpstar

Con Gain Wakefield, not particularly close either.

FrancisUrquhart

wooliedyed said:

Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.

Wulfrun_Phil

The main parties' position regarding precedents learned from 2017 has changed tonight.

For Labour, until now the experience of 2017 gave hope for 2019. Their position is now that the relative accuracy of the MRP projection for the 2017 election shouldn't be taken as a reason to rely on it for the 2019 election (especially as the 2017 MRP in fact underestimated the Conservative seat count by 16).
For the Conservatives, the precedent of the 2017 campaign is suddenly giving them renewed hope.
However, for the LDs, the MRP still sucks.

Philip_Thompson

wooliedyed said:

Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

So lower end of range is a majority?

tlg86

Constituency - Con - Lab
Bury South - 43 - 40
Hendon - 43 - 40
Warwick and Leamington - 42 - 39
West Bromwich West - 41 - 38
Dagenham and Rainham - 40 - 38
Darlington - 43 - 41
Scunthorpe - 42 - 40
Vale of Clwyd - 43 - 41
Clwyd South - 43 - 41
Bedford - 40 - 39
Dewsbury - 42 - 41
Keighley - 43 - 42
Leigh - 40 - 39
Stoke-on-Trent Central - 40 - 39
West Bromwich East - 40 - 39
Workington - 41 - 40

MarqueeMark

wooliedyed said:

Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

So many toss-up seats - I don't know how they have been decided in the headline number.

Pulpstar

I'll have to remember to cancel the Times after the election, offer on £3 for 3 months atm.

Pulpstar

LD gain St Albans very comfortably.

Mexicanpete

GIN1138 said:

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...

All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD!
Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?

rpjs

Philip_Thompson said:

MRP has Leigh as Con Gain.

No. Just no. Leigh is not blue.

For once, Mr Thompson, I agree with you.

Andy_JS

Pulpstar said:

LD gain St Albans very comfortably.

It voted 61% Remain.

Philip_Thompson

Birkenhead is Safe Labour with Other (Frank Field?) on 10%. Do we believe that. I'd think Frank Field would stand a chance there.

Benpointer

StuartDickson said:

Edinburgh West a toss-up SLD/SNP, as is Caithness.

This MRP is absolutely horrific for the Lib Dems. Swinson must be a goner?

I suspect she'll hold on until the actual results are in on 13th Dec

FrancisUrquhart

I don't think it is helpful for the Tories to have all the media reporting the prediction of a healthy majority for them at this stage.

kle4

It will be very interesting to see what happens in Brighton when Caroline Lucas is no longer there.

GIN1138

Labour holds on the north-east.

StuartDickson

Andy_JS said:

Swinson needs to adopt a softer image pretty quickly. Her schoolmistress persona obviously isn't coming across well to voters.

Too late. She’s had her 15 minutes.

nunu2

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

Wow, it looks like the actual numbers are worse for Labour then the headlines.

Mysticrose

A bit of something for everyone in this poll. Labour shouldn't be too disheartened.

Remember, the poll takes no account of constituency or tactical voting. A couple more % points and we're right into hung parliament territory.

The tories will be happy enough but also, I think, a bit nervous. It's not landslide territory and after their onslaught on Corbyn I think they would hope to be much further ahead.

The LibDems may be the most disappointed, but see the previous point. There's no constituency level or tactical voting.

Two weeks to go. All to play for.

Alistair

Andrew said:

Alistair said:

Edinburgh West Tossup

….snip...

I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.

But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.

I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.

Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.

The error bars and individual constituency results are utterly vital. Without them the MRP is a giant waste of time. The point is to show how you get to those numbers.

That's what makes MRP so powerful and informative.

And the 2017 midpoints where pretty fucking good last time out.

Black_Rook

BluerBlue said:

OH YOU BEAUTY!

Yes, I've been too chicken to check until now. And I'm still scared that 2 weeks could change the position...

It will.

Andy_JS

FrancisUrquhart said:

YouGov have Labour winning Cambridge easily....The Lib Dems are f##ked if they can't even make that place close.

All those students and lecturers who think Corbyn is the best thing since sliced bread.

kle4

TheWhiteRabbit said:

If YouGov is correct, for the first time in ages, the Cons will have almost as many ultra safe (/inefficient) seats as Labour

The efficiency of the vote has gone to crap - it's critical to my view of this election, so if it is efficient I willlook very silly.

tlg86

Constituency - Con - Lab
Bury North - 43 - 43
Chipping Barnet - 41 - 41
High Peak - 42 - 42
Weaver Vale - 42 - 42
Delyn - 43 - 43
Alyn and Deeside - 42 - 42
Bolton North East - 41 - 42
Sedgefield - 40 - 41
Gower - 42 - 43
Coventry North West - 40 - 42
Heywood and Middleton - 38 - 40
Bridgend - 41 - 43
Birmingham, Northfield - 40 - 43
Coventry South - 40 - 43
Erith and Thamesmead - 38 - 41
Gedling - 41 - 44
Lancaster and Fleetwood - 40 - 43
Lincoln - 41 - 44
Stockton North - 39 - 42
Worsley and Eccles South - 39 - 42

Brom

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.

I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.

This won’t surprise anyone who knows the Midlands. Incredibly patriotic and makes up a tonne of the lads who follow England away. It also has a history of voting Tory, more so than many of the Northern pit towns where I expect drift home to Labour.

nunu2

MarqueeMark said:

wooliedyed said:

Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

So many toss-up seats - I don't know how they have been decided in the headline number.

They take the mid point

FrancisUrquhart

GIN1138 said:

Labour holds on the north-east.

I think that is a big take away. They are holding on in South Wales and the North East.

Casino_Royale

wooliedyed said:

No Chuka no cry

I've certainly backed the Tories there.

Firstly, I think Lab/LDs will cancel each other out and, second, it's just the sort of wealthy seat where fear of Corbyn will greatly exceed Brexit.

Pulpstar

Amazing situation in the Cities, Labour holding onto their vote there really painful for Chuka. Dead heat for 2nd, Tories on 40%.

MarqueeMark

Horrific results for the LibDems in the SW.

One seat to watch where word is Labour are doing badly on the ground is Brighton Kemptown..... "likely Labour" says YouGov.

bigjohnowls

GIN1138 said:

Andy_JS said:

Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:

Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%.
Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%.
Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%.
Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%.
Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.

If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...

Dont think 2017 saw a swing to May

Nor will 2019 see a swing to Brave Sir Boris imo

Pulpstar

Andy_JS said:

Pulpstar said:

LD gain St Albans very comfortably.

It voted 61% Remain.

Yes I backed the LDs there and said even if the Tories get 400 seats LD should gain it.

Mysticrose

FrancisUrquhart said:

wooliedyed said:

Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.

That's true.

Remember, ComRes, ICM and Deltapoll all have the lead currently at 7%.

Alistair

CSV of the 2017 Yougov MRP results if you wish to compare what actually happened to the predictions last time out.

https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

llef

kle4 said:

Upper range for PC in Ceredigion looks very high. LDs really seem to struggle in Wales.

Agreed. Plaid over 40% seems incredibly unlikely. ( Though I have heard anecdotally that he is a helpful and competent mp).

Sean_F

FrancisUrquhart said:

It ain't going to happen. This is based on Tories winning by 11 and the campaign is going all Labour's way over the past week.

For the Tories, all they can hope for is no more slip-ups and hope that enough tight seats go their way. They have to also hope that the Lib Dems can get a bit of traction and take back a few % from Labour.

The Conservatives could easily win by 11. Look at the leader ratings, and other internal numbers.

But, even if it's 42/37 in the end, the Tories will have a small majority.

FrancisUrquhart

Totally O/T...

Go master quits because AI 'cannot be defeated'

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50573071

Anybody who saw the AlphaGo documentary....they had to put people on the roof with him because they were worried about him jumping at one point.

ozymandias

Mysticrose said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

wooliedyed said:

Tory range 328 to 385 acc to yougov

Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.

That's true.

Remember, ComRes, ICM and Deltapoll all have the lead currently at 7%.

Leads can go back up as well as down 😉

StuartDickson

tlg86 said:

StuartDickson said:

East Dunbartonshire (Swinson’s seat) is neck-and-neck according to MRP.

LD - 38
SNP - 33

But look at the bars. The SNP could be as high as 45%. Swinson could be as low as 30%.

Swinson is way too short in the markets.

TheValiant

I see from the detailed map at the YouGov site, that there are a number of 'tossup' seats. Four in the NE of Scotland, and a scattered bunch in England and Wales.

How has YouGov called them? Because if they call them CON but they go Lab/SNP/LD it might make the night interesting after all.

*clutches straws*