Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.
It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.
Why do you assume the tories can’t widen the gap in the final two weeks?
Because how would this happen?
All Labour needs to do is keep banging on about the NHS between now and election day and the gap will continue to narrow.
All the Tories can really do is point out that Labour can't finance their colossal spending pledges, but all the Labour-leaning slab of the electorate will see is (1) incomprehensibly vast sums of money being used to provide all sorts of goodies and (2) won't that make Our Beloved NHS even more wonderful than it already is?
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.
It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.
Why do you assume the tories can’t widen the gap in the final two weeks?
I don't think they have it in them. They are playing it safe with their manifesto so don't have anything eye catching to offer, there's nothing new to throw at Corbyn and Boris is not as good as he thinks he is, and as long as the message is that the Tories might win a majority the Labour squeeze on the LDs will continue and they will close to within 4-6% by the vote (if a bit higher, then a shy Labour factor, because the low poll ratings going into the election show people are not enthused by them, will push up the vote a bit), and that will deny a majority and that is all that is needed.
The WASPI bribe wasn't in Labour’s manifesto. This is nonsense.
So you believe that having criticised Labour's WASPI bribe, a Tory party which has played it very safe in its policies is going to come up with a ridiculous bribe like Labour? What absurd policy they cannot fund are you expecting them to come up with? You've also only addressed one point of a range of reasons.
Here is one question; Why are Labour not looking like winning a majority of their own, in fact they are nowhere near doing so? I mean they are literally telling the public they can make their lives hugely better, and all for almost free yet they are nowhere near holding power outright.
Because voters realise that promises of free money isn't wise.
Seats where Labour is just holding on because of the Brexit Party, according to MPR:
Weaver Vale: Lab 42%, Con 42%. High Peak: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Alyn & Deeside: Lab 42%, Con 42%. Bury North: Lab 43%, Con 43%. Bolton NE: Lab 42%, Con 41%. Gower: Lab 43%, Con 42%. Sedgefield: Lab 41%, Con 40%. Delyn: Lab 43%, Con 43%.
If we see the usual 2-3% swing to the government in the final week of the campaign all of those could fall...
All those look like Tory gains to me which puts Boris in landslide territory. Well done Boris, well done HYUFD! Labour now heading sub-200! Do we still think Corbyn will stay on after this drubbing?
Labour still have another fortnight to keep on closing that gap. Those voters will continue to drift back home. There's more than enough time for the Con lead to slip down into Hung Parliament territory.
Corbyn's not going anywhere except into 10 Downing Street.
I simply don't understand the prevalent belief here that the UK is swinging behind Corbyn, whose ratings are currently -30% to -40%.
It's in spite of him. The Labour share is getting into the mid 30s, and unless the Tories break away further that might be enough to deny Boris a majority, and that is literally all Labour need to do.
Why do you assume the tories can’t widen the gap in the final two weeks?
I don't think they have it in them. They are playing it safe with their manifesto so don't have anything eye catching to offer, there's nothing new to throw at Corbyn and Boris is not as good as he thinks he is, and as long as the message is that the Tories might win a majority the Labour squeeze on the LDs will continue and they will close to within 4-6% by the vote (if a bit higher, then a shy Labour factor, because the low poll ratings going into the election show people are not enthused by them, will push up the vote a bit), and that will deny a majority and that is all that is needed.
Hmmm. Sounds like when Johnson was written off before he came back with a deal. Impossible it was said. Boris going nowhere it was said.
Saying this is like 2017 is like those French generals at the start of WW2 expecting a replay of WW1.
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Sir Peter Bottomley. The other Mr Rook looked this up earlier. There are no survivors from the 1974 elections. Bottomley was first returned in a by-election in 1975.
I'm going to be negative and say that this is based on an 11 point national poll lead, we're probably at about 9% at the moment so we're realistically looking at a 40 seat majority. I think the lead increases a bit this week and stabilises next week. Labour's campaign looks to have peaked a bit earlier than last time as well, the WASPI stuff should have been saved for next week.
Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurrock 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%, to hold Herts SW 46% to 19% for Gauke
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Sir Peter Bottomley. The other Mr Rook looked this up earlier. There are no survivors from the 1974 elections. Bottomley was first returned in a by-election in 1975.
Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurtod 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%
Those all sound right to me. And I can see Chipping Barnet being a problem for the Tories: maybe you Essex Tories ought to move over there to do some campaigning for Theresa Villiers.
First reactions: I'm pretty content with how the MRP compares with my somewhat simpler model using similar vote shares. The MRP has the Conservatives on 359 seats across GB, based on an 11% lead. My own model has them on 332 in England alone, when the same 43/32/14/3 split is applied. Allowing for Scotland and Wales, that seems in the same sort of ball park with the MRP predicting maybe a handful more Conservative gains net (a difference which can be narrowed down to its the virtual absence of LD net gains.) On an 11% lead I've also got the Conservatives picking up quite a few heavily Leave seats such as Wolves NE (Lab) and Norfolk N (LD), whilst failing to pick up some heavily Labour Remain seats such as Kensington. That said, a question over the MRP model has to be over the assumptions that lead the LDs to pick up only 1 net seat despite nearly doubling their 2017 vote share. How reasonable are the assumptions on tactical voting built in to the MRP model, and can likely behaviours in individual seats really be captured by multi-level regression modelling alone? The other question is the data time frame in the model. Although it is based on data up to 26th November, how far back does that time frame extend? As there is clear evidence of narrowing in the polls, an 11% gap seems a bit high based on current polling.
Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurtod 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%
Here is one question; Why are Labour not looking like winning a majority of their own, in fact they are nowhere near doing so? I mean they are literally telling the public they can make their lives hugely better, and all for almost free yet they are nowhere near holding power outright.
Some other interesting figures: Johnson OK but not comfoirtable in Uxbridge - 50/37/7/3. Corbyn and Thornberry safe as houses. Hendon almost too close to call Con/Lab, but non-Tory vote exactly split in Finchley and Cities of London and Westminster. Portsmouth S leaning Labour, as I thought, and Totnes strong Tory, as also reported here. Trust your PB canvassers!
Haven't analysed in detail, but my impression is that Labour is again doing reasonably well in London. It's the north that's the problem.
Leigh isn't going Tory. No chance. And I wonder whether that points to the shortcomings of the MRP approach - places like Leigh demographically should not be as staunch Labour as they are - negligible BAME, above average home ownership etc But 100 years of Labour MPs and Labour councillors has to count for something
Cough. Scotland. Cough.
Sure, these things can happen and the effect can be massive and sustained when it does, a dam bursting. But most heartlands remain that way. One of the earliest seats to declare which might indicate if the Tories are in for a good night, Workington, is a toss up I see.
Leigh isn't going Tory. No chance. And I wonder whether that points to the shortcomings of the MRP approach - places like Leigh demographically should not be as staunch Labour as they are - negligible BAME, above average home ownership etc But 100 years of Labour MPs and Labour councillors has to count for something
This is exactly what people said about the MRP last time.
"Oh Canterbury is never going Labour, don't be ridiculous, what a stupid.... Etc etc"
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
Here is the error on the aggregate
29-54 for the SNP is quite the range.
It is, and a very fair one.
There's a plausible explanation for them ending up at either of those boundaries.
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Sir Peter Bottomley. The other Mr Rook looked this up earlier. There are no survivors from the 1974 elections. Bottomley was first returned in a by-election in 1975.
Thanks.
It goes to Barry Sheerman after him and then frank field in the unlikely event he holds following which Harriet is the only other pre 1983 MP. Barry and frank were 79ers and harriet a by election in 82. Likely to ge just 2 mps in the house who were there when Maggie came in as PM
Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.
That's true.
Remember, ComRes, ICM and Deltapoll all have the lead currently at 7%.
Leads can go back up as well as down 😉
Not the cautious way the Tories have started playing.
If they haven’t learnt from 2017 then I agree. But don’t be surprised to see an acceleration in last two weeks.
Always best to sit tight and let your enemy expend their ammo whilst sitting tight. When they’re spent - then’s the time to attack. I could be wrong but don’t assume anything.
They didn’t back it though, they merely voted for a 2nd reading, that is very different than actually backing anything merely wishing to explore it and let it be heard as proved by Boris hiding it away and going for an election.
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
Here is the error on the aggregate
29-54 for the SNP is quite the range.
Same in 2017 as well. Scotland is made up of about 50 marginals these days.
Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurtod 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%
I see from the detailed map at the YouGov site, that there are a number of 'tossup' seats. Four in the NE of Scotland, and a scattered bunch in England and Wales.
How has YouGov called them? Because if they call them CON but they go Lab/SNP/LD it might make the night interesting after all.
*clutches straws*
Edinburgh West is a dead heat on the MRP - plenty of fun and games still to come, Scottish voters love to surprise.
LibDems are covering it in activists. If they lose it it will be a huge shock to me (and my bank balance)
A bit 2005, with Corbyn doing a bit better than Howard. At least the Tories could be overhauled in 5 years.
'Could be'? Of course they would be, and by a massive margin, if only the Labour Party were trying to be a serious party of government. Sadly the evidence is that they are not.
Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurtod 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%
Those all sound right to me. And I can see Chipping Barnet being a problem for the Tories: maybe you Essex Tories ought to move over there to do some campaigning for Theresa Villiers.
Perhaps but also need to ensure Dagenham goes blue as forecast too
I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.
This won’t surprise anyone who knows the Midlands. Incredibly patriotic and makes up a tonne of the lads who follow England away. It also has a history of voting Tory, more so than many of the Northern pit towns where I expect drift home to Labour.
Having lived in the Midlands most of my life, I do agree. The Midlands industrial culture was mostly one of smaller enterprising firms, particularly in engineering. The motor industry being the only major nationalised one, and that was nationalised late on. This is quite a contrast with the old coal, steel and ship building towns of the NE and Wales. As a result, the Midlands is a culture more open to free enterprise and markets, and Conservatism.
I think there is also a big shy Tory factor in labour leave constituencies, people who would never admit to anyone they are voting Tory out of fear of Corbyn , even their own spouses. The Tory majority could potentially be much larger
NE Derbyshire was one seat where they got it wrong last time. They said leans Labour and the Tories won it comfortably.
That's very useful thanks. In 2017 they got ynys Mon almost spot on except overstated libs by 5% which should have been added 50/50 to con and plaid. Maybe cons are fav after all!
It's only one seat. I don't know how many other seats they got wrong because I haven't studied it in detail.
I am going to knock up a 2017 accuracy metric for the MRP tomorrow if I can get the time.
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
Here is the error on the aggregate
29-54 for the SNP is quite the range.
Same in 2017 as well. Scotland is made up of about 50 marginals these days.
Nerve wracking, but it's probably better that way.
They didn’t back it though, they merely voted for a 2nd reading, that is very different than actually backing anything merely wishing to explore it and let it be heard as proved by Boris hiding it away and going for an election.
A good five or six of them were pretty much nailed on as backing it based on their previous votes and comments.
Swinson needs to adopt a softer image pretty quickly. Her schoolmistress persona obviously isn't coming across well to voters.
Well the vote share has doubled, so I would disagree, the problem is the distribution of those votes.
The LibDem vote may have doubled since 2017, but since the campaign started the LibDems have lost 1 in 3 of their supporters. That has unarguably been solely on Swinson's watch.
This can be a bad moment for the Conservatives 😧. More safety first campaigning like labour in 92 thinking its in the bag. 😕 And this whole horrid thing now serves as tackyvote battle map dropped on remainers like mana. But are they really set for headline majority if election was tomorrow, based on one polling firm whilst others disagree, and as the PB experts look at each seat they are saying, really? The number of what build it responses sounds like a lot, but divided by 650 constituency’s? Hm. 🤔. Not that iffy constituency polling based on low numbers again? I stand by my suspicion this is a dangerous poll for the Tories.
After the experience of 2 years ago i'd be surprised to see any Tory being complacent.
I wouldn't be happy even if we were 30 points ahead.
First reactions: I'm pretty content with how the MRP compares with my somewhat simpler model using similar vote shares. The MRP has the Conservatives on 359 seats across GB, based on an 11% lead. My own model has them on 332 in England alone, when the same 43/32/14/3 split is applied. Allowing for Scotland and Wales, that seems in the same sort of ball park with the MRP predicting maybe a handful more Conservative gains net (a difference which can be narrowed down to its the virtual absence of LD net gains.) On an 11% lead I've also got the Conservatives picking up quite a few heavily Leave seats such as Wolves NE (Lab) and Norfolk N (LD), whilst failing to pick up some heavily Labour Remain seats such as Kensington. That said, a question over the MRP model has to be over the assumptions that lead the LDs to pick up only 1 net seat despite nearly doubling their 2017 vote share. How reasonable are the assumptions on tactical voting built in to the MRP model, and can likely behaviours in individual seats really be captured by multi-level regression modelling alone? The other question is the data time frame in the model. Although it is based on data up to 26th November, how far back does that time frame extend? As there is clear evidence of narrowing in the polls, an 11% gap seems a bit high based on current polling.
Correction - MRP does have the Conservatives taking Kensington. The point applies to Battersea though.
I think there is also a big shy Tory factor in labour leave constituencies, people who would never admit to anyone they are voting Tory out of fear of Corbyn , even their own spouses. The Tory majority could potentially be much larger
The shy voter is really not such an issue now as the majority of polls are online . It’s more evident in phone polling and even more so with face to face surveys .
A bit 2005, with Corbyn doing a bit better than Howard. At least the Tories could be overhauled in 5 years.
'Could be'? Of course they would be, and by a massive margin, if only the Labour Party were trying to be a serious party of government. Sadly the evidence is that they are not.
And they won't be, if the Far Left isn't heavily defeated in this election.
Given that is on an 11% lead....Tories could fail to get 300 easily.
That's true.
Remember, ComRes, ICM and Deltapoll all have the lead currently at 7%.
Leads can go back up as well as down 😉
Not the cautious way the Tories have started playing.
If they haven’t learnt from 2017 then I agree. But don’t be surprised to see an acceleration in last two weeks.
Always best to sit tight and let your enemy expend their ammo whilst sitting tight. When they’re spent - then’s the time to attack. I could be wrong but don’t assume anything.
A manifesto day is a party’s key day, it could be the day the Tories blew this election, by your metaphor they didn’t fire a shot. Having said that though, Labour are having a nightmare week a key week for chaser getting momentum. No bounce in polling at the weekend. Anti Semitism gaining big traction. And now their NHS dossier rubbished by the media and falling flat on its face. Have they got anything left, or down and out now And we are looking at final result in this poll and seat projection. Shouting NHS and getting such a derisory reaction could be the moment they realise Boris shot their fox.
NE Derbyshire was one seat where they got it wrong last time. They said leans Labour and the Tories won it comfortably.
That's very useful thanks. In 2017 they got ynys Mon almost spot on except overstated libs by 5% which should have been added 50/50 to con and plaid. Maybe cons are fav after all!
It's only one seat. I don't know how many other seats they got wrong because I haven't studied it in detail.
I was thanking Alistair for his info. Not having a go at you in case you thought I was. On the flip side, yougov in 2017 had arfon as a labour win and ceredigion as a lib win, both were won by plaid. They also underestimated plaid % in dwyfor and carmartyen east. So not a good model for plaid it would seem.
Here is one question; Why are Labour not looking like winning a majority of their own, in fact they are nowhere near doing so? I mean they are literally telling the public they can make their lives hugely better, and all for almost free yet they are nowhere near holding power outright.
Because voters realise that promises of free money isn't wise.
Some voters. Not a sufficient number for the Tories.
Though that said, things would be very different without Scotland.
Here's what probably happens in the event of a Hung Parliament:
1. SNP, Lib Dems and Labour Europhiles all insist on a 2nd EU referendum. It is held. Narrow win for Remain. 2. In helping to shove the UK back into the EU, the SNP then wreck their 2nd shot at independence, because they can't convince enough Scottish voters why leaving the EU under one set of terms was a disaster but leaving under another set of terms would be a panacea
If it weren't for Scottish votes the Tories could win outright with 296 seats and would be better than 90% likely to bring it home against any plausible Labour surge. But that's a counterfactual. In the real world the Scottish votes are there, and the SNP may soon end up in a most invidious position.
If they successfully lobby for Britain's place in Europe then they'll probably end up locking Scotland into the UK too.
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.
So if the beast loses only Bottomley and Barry Sheerman will remember the first day of Thatchers premiership in the house, only Bottomley will be able to tell tales of PMs Wilson and Callaghan
Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurtod 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%
Those all sound right to me. And I can see Chipping Barnet being a problem for the Tories: maybe you Essex Tories ought to move over there to do some campaigning for Theresa Villiers.
Perhaps but also need to ensure Dagenham goes blue as forecast too
Surprised the Tory majority isn't a bit more than 2% in 70% Leave-voting Dagenham.
I would rather be in the position the conservatives are tonight than labour
However, I am not complacent and we have 13 more days before polls open
I intend keeping my feet on the ground and await the final verdict on the 13th December
Lots of betting opportunitirs I assume
Anyway time for me to say
'Good night folks'
Massive win for the Tories tonight. Boris has captured the zeitgeist. Personally disappointed as Brexit, and even no deal Brexit could be on the cards. The architect of this predicted Tory landslide is Jeremy Corbyn, but will he stay or will he go?
I don't think many people expected most of the defectors to win seats, or even do that well, bar one or two, but it will be interesting to see which perform best.
I genuinely do not see this. I can't shape the constituency into a form where this happens.
But for Reference the 2017 YouGov called this almost perfectly right.
I have a lot of money going down the drain at the moment.
Massive error bars on individual MRP constituency predictions though, could be some wildly different outcomes there. I'm not even they should publish them tbh, just spit out the aggregate and be done with it.
Here is the error on the aggregate
29-54 for the SNP is quite the range.
Same in 2017 as well. Scotland is made up of about 50 marginals these days.
Nerve wracking, but it's probably better that way.
They didn’t back it though, they merely voted for a 2nd reading, that is very different than actually backing anything merely wishing to explore it and let it be heard as proved by Boris hiding it away and going for an election.
A good five or six of them were pretty much nailed on as backing it based on their previous votes and comments.
But as 2nd reading wasn’t a meaningful vote it is spin to say they backed it.
But going back to them losing a leave seat in a brexit election, it’s still a long held labour seat, with, Flint in particular, widely respected incumbent, the sort of thing polls and voting models always say will fall but end up dying hard? Dying hard at Christmas seems most appropriate can I say? Or is that a ban?
So if the beast loses only Bottomley and Barry Sheerman will remember the first day of Thatchers premiership in the house, only Bottomley will be able to tell tales of PMs Wilson and Callaghan
Here is the impact of the Brexit Party standing and not standing in this example on the Yougov MRP: Swings to Conservative Reading West: 4 Reading East:1.5 Bolton West: 8 Bolton N.E: 4 The swing to the Conservatives is about twice as large in the North than in the South, but the Brexit Party standing in Labour seats and not standing in Conservative seats translates into a national swing that is uniformed, so according to yougov you can use plain UNS to predict the overall seat numbers. For example my swingometer junking the Brexit party using yougov's toplines would give a majority of 64.
The best part for the Tories about these new found northern/midland seats is... like I suspect North East Derbyshire will show, once they go blue they're probably not going back to Labour.
Apparently a number of other people are doing spreadsheets so I won't duplicate their effort.
Boo! On Bolsover, I confess to having an irrational dislike of Skinner. The most famous anecdotes about him make him seem like the worst kind of partisan, the kind who act childishly but think that is a point of pride. Hopefully that is not the case.
Turns out the distribution of hardcore remainers outside SW London is suboptimal for the Lib Dems and in fact most of those 2nd reffers/Stop Brexiters were actual "Fuck off the Tories, and you the yellow Tories" Labourites instead.... Christ what a siren song.
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.
Comments
All Labour needs to do is keep banging on about the NHS between now and election day and the gap will continue to narrow.
All the Tories can really do is point out that Labour can't finance their colossal spending pledges, but all the Labour-leaning slab of the electorate will see is (1) incomprehensibly vast sums of money being used to provide all sorts of goodies and (2) won't that make Our Beloved NHS even more wonderful than it already is?
Brexit didn't happen and...
Saying this is like 2017 is like those French generals at the start of WW2 expecting a replay of WW1.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mrp-election-poll-boris-johnson-heads-for-big-majority-qrqsq9f7r
I'm pretty content with how the MRP compares with my somewhat simpler model using similar vote shares. The MRP has the Conservatives on 359 seats across GB, based on an 11% lead. My own model has them on 332 in England alone, when the same 43/32/14/3 split is applied. Allowing for Scotland and Wales, that seems in the same sort of ball park with the MRP predicting maybe a handful more Conservative gains net (a difference which can be narrowed down to its the virtual absence of LD net gains.)
On an 11% lead I've also got the Conservatives picking up quite a few heavily Leave seats such as Wolves NE (Lab) and Norfolk N (LD), whilst failing to pick up some heavily Labour Remain seats such as Kensington.
That said, a question over the MRP model has to be over the assumptions that lead the LDs to pick up only 1 net seat despite nearly doubling their 2017 vote share. How reasonable are the assumptions on tactical voting built in to the MRP model, and can likely behaviours in individual seats really be captured by multi-level regression modelling alone?
The other question is the data time frame in the model. Although it is based on data up to 26th November, how far back does that time frame extend? As there is clear evidence of narrowing in the polls, an 11% gap seems a bit high based on current polling.
Edit: I see she'll be beaten by a mere man. Still, the moral victory is hers.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mrp-election-poll-boris-johnson-heads-for-big-majority-qrqsq9f7r
Night all.
Haven't analysed in detail, but my impression is that Labour is again doing reasonably well in London. It's the north that's the problem.
One of the earliest seats to declare which might indicate if the Tories are in for a good night, Workington, is a toss up I see.
"Oh Canterbury is never going Labour, don't be ridiculous, what a stupid.... Etc etc"
There's a plausible explanation for them ending up at either of those boundaries.
Always best to sit tight and let your enemy expend their ammo whilst sitting tight. When they’re spent - then’s the time to attack. I could be wrong but don’t assume anything.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_by_seniority_(2017–2019)
However, I am not complacent and we have 13 more days before polls open
I intend keeping my feet on the ground and await the final verdict on the 13th December
Lots of betting opportunitirs I assume
Anyway time for me to say
'Good night folks'
Know jack all.
As a result, the Midlands is a culture more open to free enterprise and markets, and Conservatism.
I wouldn't be happy even if we were 30 points ahead.
Goodnight BigG.
For example I suspect East Devon will be possibly (the only) Independent win (Claire Wright): if tactical voting works.
(Seems incomprehensible why Greens and LDs stood against her, and Lab for that matter).
And it could come significantly into play with those close SNP/Con seats and with PC/Con/Lab in Ynys Môn.
TOries outperformed the most in... Isle of Wight, also Yeovil notably.
32%, 19% out.
Otherwise, they'll go for "one more heave".
Night all.
Having said that though, Labour are having a nightmare week a key week for chaser getting momentum. No bounce in polling at the weekend. Anti Semitism gaining big traction. And now their NHS dossier rubbished by the media and falling flat on its face. Have they got anything left, or down and out now And we are looking at final result in this poll and seat projection.
Shouting NHS and getting such a derisory reaction could be the moment they realise Boris shot their fox.
The SNP are, fractionally. ahead but have much wider error bars than the Conservatives.
Though that said, things would be very different without Scotland.
Here's what probably happens in the event of a Hung Parliament:
1. SNP, Lib Dems and Labour Europhiles all insist on a 2nd EU referendum. It is held. Narrow win for Remain.
2. In helping to shove the UK back into the EU, the SNP then wreck their 2nd shot at independence, because they can't convince enough Scottish voters why leaving the EU under one set of terms was a disaster but leaving under another set of terms would be a panacea
If it weren't for Scottish votes the Tories could win outright with 296 seats and would be better than 90% likely to bring it home against any plausible Labour surge. But that's a counterfactual. In the real world the Scottish votes are there, and the SNP may soon end up in a most invidious position.
If they successfully lobby for Britain's place in Europe then they'll probably end up locking Scotland into the UK too.
W07000041 Ynys Môn
W07000042 Delyn
W07000043 Alyn and Deeside
W07000044 Wrexham
W07000045 Llanelli
Personally disappointed as Brexit, and even no deal Brexit could be on the cards.
The architect of this predicted Tory landslide is Jeremy Corbyn, but will he stay or will he go?
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
Explains the ever more hysterical lies from Labour
Only Wolves SE, Walsall S and Warley left as Labour seats.
But going back to them losing a leave seat in a brexit election, it’s still a long held labour seat, with, Flint in particular, widely respected incumbent, the sort of thing polls and voting models always say will fall but end up dying hard?
Dying hard at Christmas seems most appropriate can I say? Or is that a ban?
Swings to Conservative
Reading West: 4
Reading East:1.5
Bolton West: 8
Bolton N.E: 4
The swing to the Conservatives is about twice as large in the North than in the South, but the Brexit Party standing in Labour seats and not standing in Conservative seats translates into a national swing that is uniformed, so according to yougov you can use plain UNS to predict the overall seat numbers.
For example my swingometer junking the Brexit party using yougov's toplines would give a majority of 64.
On Bolsover, I confess to having an irrational dislike of Skinner. The most famous anecdotes about him make him seem like the worst kind of partisan, the kind who act childishly but think that is a point of pride. Hopefully that is not the case.
Christ what a siren song.