Is there anything on how YG have assessed tactical voting in this MRP?
For example I suspect East Devon will be possibly (the only) Independent win (Claire Wright): if tactical voting works.
(Seems incomprehensible why Greens and LDs stood against her, and Lab for that matter).
And it could come significantly into play with those close SNP/Con seats and with PC/Con/Lab in Ynys Môn.
Tactical voting seats will be the most difficult to estimate using this method because demographics obviously cannot take tactical voting into account.
Corbyn really was terrible, so you can't blame the useless old duffer! If Corbyn is ducking out Boris really shouldn't do them either.
I wonder if our labour voters will still be shouting about cowardice
Corbyn's already dead fox has well and truly been shot. This is excellent news for Johnson as he has the capacity to turn an interview into a crisis. Also with today's fantastic Tory Yougov results why should Johnson take the risk?
"a seven-way debate between party leaders on the BBC on Friday night will feature Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, in Mr Corbyn’s place."
The annointed one, if more proof were really needed. Still available at 9/2 as next Labour leader.
"a seven-way debate between party leaders on the BBC on Friday night will feature Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, in Mr Corbyn’s place."
The annointed one, if more proof were really needed. Still available at 9/2 as next Labour leader.
Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?
Getting over 200 seats with Jeremy Corbyn as leader would be an extraordinary result for Labour. It gives the party a thoroughly undeserved chance to bounce back, especially given what’s coming down the line. My expectation was (is) comfortably sub-200.
If I remember correctly from the photo posted on twitter earlier today, Tories have lost ~30 seats over the past week or so (according to their model).
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.
Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurtod 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%
Those all sound right to me. And I can see Chipping Barnet being a problem for the Tories: maybe you Essex Tories ought to move over there to do some campaigning for Theresa Villiers.
Perhaps but also need to ensure Dagenham goes blue as forecast too
Surprised the Tory majority isn't a bit more than 2% in 70% Leave-voting Dagenham.
Dagenham has a lower population of Boomers than national average (26% vs 31%). Age is the strongest indicator of voting intention, even more than Brexit IMO.
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.
Yes, but that is different. She is not a former MP who left their party and stood against it like the others.
The purpose of MRP is not to accurately predict every seat, but to accurately predict the total number of seats like the Exit Poll. With 632 seats it's reliable but with 50 states it's not, the sample would be too small for states that are as large as a european country by them selves, that's why yougov's american MRP failed in the 2016 US presidential election.
I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.
This won’t surprise anyone who knows the Midlands. Incredibly patriotic and makes up a tonne of the lads who follow England away. It also has a history of voting Tory, more so than many of the Northern pit towns where I expect drift home to Labour.
Having lived in the Midlands most of my life, I do agree. The Midlands industrial culture was mostly one of smaller enterprising firms, particularly in engineering. The motor industry being the only major nationalised one, and that was nationalised late on. This is quite a contrast with the old coal, steel and ship building towns of the NE and Wales. As a result, the Midlands is a culture more open to free enterprise and markets, and Conservatism.
The Midlands will be a bloodbath for Labour. Corbyn is designed to repel Midlands voters.
Is there anything on how YG have assessed tactical voting in this MRP?
For example I suspect East Devon will be possibly (the only) Independent win (Claire Wright): if tactical voting works.
(Seems incomprehensible why Greens and LDs stood against her, and Lab for that matter).
And it could come significantly into play with those close SNP/Con seats and with PC/Con/Lab in Ynys Môn.
Tactical voting seats will be the most difficult to estimate using this method because demographics obviously cannot take tactical voting into account.
😶. Aren’t all seats tactical voting seats in this election. Take Mogg seat as an example. Is it % swing since last election, as Jeremy vine would display, or in fact adding up all leave votes in the seat giving to Mogster, all remain votes in the seat giving them to libdem, and calculating what swing remain need to oust leader of the house, factoring in libdem done well in seat this year giving Jacob a libdem counsellor, and that the voters put in Labour MP few elections ago?
I think you can see some of the reasoning behind this study in the fact that Wirral West is "likely Lab" and Wirral South is "lean Lab". I assume that's because Wirral West is a more prosperous constituency and therefore the Labour performance is assumed to be stronger on this occasion. But I'm not sure it's right in terms of those two Wirral seats.
I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.
This won’t surprise anyone who knows the Midlands. Incredibly patriotic and makes up a tonne of the lads who follow England away. It also has a history of voting Tory, more so than many of the Northern pit towns where I expect drift home to Labour.
Having lived in the Midlands most of my life, I do agree. The Midlands industrial culture was mostly one of smaller enterprising firms, particularly in engineering. The motor industry being the only major nationalised one, and that was nationalised late on. This is quite a contrast with the old coal, steel and ship building towns of the NE and Wales. As a result, the Midlands is a culture more open to free enterprise and markets, and Conservatism.
The Midlands will be a bloodbath for Labour. Corbyn is designed to repel Midlands voters.
Easily solved. Put a Peaky Blinders cap on his head.
Seriously, if they are holding up in cities, youth quake mark 2 around Uni’s, dying hard in NE and late recovery in Wales, they need to be slaughtered somewhere for the predictions to be accurate. Didn’t feel like that though even in early 18 point lead days whenever Boris went there. I recall Big G getting excited by Boris making innuendo in a Coventry factory amongst middle aged men, but doesn’t their wives cancel out those votes?
Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?
Getting over 200 seats with Jeremy Corbyn as leader would be an extraordinary result for Labour. It gives the party a thoroughly undeserved chance to bounce back, especially given what’s coming down the line. My expectation was (is) comfortably sub-200.
Absolutely. I have the Tories around 400 too, based on very indifferent support for the LDs. To be honest Labour deserve to be sub 200, but then again so do the Tories under Boris, but sadly they are currently operating in the high 300s with more to come.
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.
That is very useful. So Labour probably need to win Grimsby and Dudley North to make it a hung parliament. That’s a tough ask with their Brexit policy.
I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.
This won’t surprise anyone who knows the Midlands. Incredibly patriotic and makes up a tonne of the lads who follow England away. It also has a history of voting Tory, more so than many of the Northern pit towns where I expect drift home to Labour.
Having lived in the Midlands most of my life, I do agree. The Midlands industrial culture was mostly one of smaller enterprising firms, particularly in engineering. The motor industry being the only major nationalised one, and that was nationalised late on. This is quite a contrast with the old coal, steel and ship building towns of the NE and Wales. As a result, the Midlands is a culture more open to free enterprise and markets, and Conservatism.
The Midlands will be a bloodbath for Labour. Corbyn is designed to repel Midlands voters.
Easily solved. Put a Peaky Blinders cap on his head.
Corbyn is daft enough to have the blade facing inwards.
Is there anything on how YG have assessed tactical voting in this MRP?
For example I suspect East Devon will be possibly (the only) Independent win (Claire Wright): if tactical voting works.
(Seems incomprehensible why Greens and LDs stood against her, and Lab for that matter).
And it could come significantly into play with those close SNP/Con seats and with PC/Con/Lab in Ynys Môn.
Tactical voting seats will be the most difficult to estimate using this method because demographics obviously cannot take tactical voting into account.
😶. Aren’t all seats tactical voting seats in this election. Take Mogg seat as an example. Is it % swing since last election, as Jeremy vine would display, or in fact adding up all leave votes in the seat giving to Mogster, all remain votes in the seat giving them to libdem, and calculating what swing remain need to oust leader of the house, factoring in libdem done well in seat this year giving Jacob a libdem counsellor, and that the voters put in Labour MP few elections ago?
Most seats are safe seats and therefore tactical voting won't feature much.
If you’re a Tory supporter I expect you’d wish the next two weeks flies by and just want it over and done with.
I think the danger for the Tories is really to not drop the Ming vase . Johnson really just has to avoid any gaffes and hope the Trump visit goes okay .
That visit must be causing some concern in no 10 , although I expect Trump to stay on message re the NHS he can still do some damage.
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.
Grieve is doing quite well in the poll with 28% (though not well enough). I still haven't fully understood how they trade off their small constituency samples and demographic projections.
Looking at the minor parties: Lucas romps home in Brighton, but the Greens don't make much progress in Bristol or anywhere else. BXP stand to come second in Barnsley Central, and get 20% in a dozen or so seats, but they're not close to winning anywhere on these figures. Not many SNP marginals and Plaid has little to win or lose. No Northern Ireland figures here.
Some of the best holds for Labour according to the model: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Canterbury, Croydon Central, Reading East, Bridgend, Gower, Newport West, Lincoln, Gedling, Lancaster.
If you’re a Tory supporter I expect you’d wish the next two weeks flies by and just want it over and done with.
I think the danger for the Tories is really to not drop the Ming vase . Johnson really just has to avoid any gaffes and hope the Trump visit goes okay .
That visit must be causing some concern in no 10 , although I expect Trump to stay on message re the NHS he can still do some damage.
Yep I think that is a good summary of where we are. Unless we see a real uptick in the polls this is going to be very nervy next couple of weeks.
First reactions: I'm pretty content with how the MRP compares with my somewhat simpler model using similar vote shares. The MRP has the Conservatives on 359 seats across GB, based on an 11% lead. My own model has them on 332 in England alone, when the same 43/32/14/3 split is applied. Allowing for Scotland and Wales, that seems in the same sort of ball park with the MRP predicting maybe a handful more Conservative gains net (a difference which can be narrowed down to its the virtual absence of LD net gains.) On an 11% lead I've also got the Conservatives picking up quite a few heavily Leave seats such as Wolves NE (Lab) and Norfolk N (LD), whilst failing to pick up some heavily Labour Remain seats such as Kensington. That said, a question over the MRP model has to be over the assumptions that lead the LDs to pick up only 1 net seat despite nearly doubling their 2017 vote share. How reasonable are the assumptions on tactical voting built in to the MRP model, and can likely behaviours in individual seats really be captured by multi-level regression modelling alone? The other question is the data time frame in the model. Although it is based on data up to 26th November, how far back does that time frame extend? As there is clear evidence of narrowing in the polls, an 11% gap seems a bit high based on current polling.
It is high. The whole shebang could be based on a Tory poll lead that isn't there.
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.
That is very useful. So Labour probably need to win Grimsby and Dudley North to make it a hung parliament. That’s a tough ask with their Brexit policy.
Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?
Getting over 200 seats with Jeremy Corbyn as leader would be an extraordinary result for Labour. It gives the party a thoroughly undeserved chance to bounce back, especially given what’s coming down the line. My expectation was (is) comfortably sub-200.
Extraordinarily bad yes, even when squeezing the Liberal vote to death unlike 1983 Corbyn still does worse than Ed Miliband and Kinnock and Gordon Brown
It ain't going to happen. This is based on Tories winning by 11 and the campaign is going all Labour's way over the past week.
For the Tories, all they can hope for is no more slip-ups and hope that enough tight seats go their way. They have to also hope that the Lib Dems can get a bit of traction and take back a few % from Labour.
It's true that yougov found that Labour where closing the gap by around 0.5% per day since Nov.20 till today. If that trend continues until polling day then the swing would fall to just 2%, which would make a Consevative majority of around 0-20. Another thing, if Labour continue to rise it should impact the SNP in Scotland just like the Conservative surge did.
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.
Grieve is doing quite well in the poll with 28% (though not well enough). I still haven't fully understood how they trade off their small constituency samples and demographic projections.
Looking at the minor parties: Lucas romps home in Brighton, but the Greens don't make much progress in Bristol or anywhere else. BXP stand to come second in Barnsley Central, and get 20% in a dozen or so seats, but they're not close to winning anywhere on these figures. Not many SNP marginals and Plaid has little to win or lose. No Northern Ireland figures here.
I think the Greens will be ahead of Labour on IOW, not third place in this MRP. I agree that it doesn't seem to anticipate tactical voting very well. If I can find enough time at the weekend, I shall produce my own spreadsheet model.
Here is one question; Why are Labour not looking like winning a majority of their own, in fact they are nowhere near doing so? I mean they are literally telling the public they can make their lives hugely better, and all for almost free yet they are nowhere near holding power outright.
Because voters realise that promises of free money isn't wise.
Some voters. Not a sufficient number for the Tories.
Though that said, things would be very different without Scotland.
Here's what probably happens in the event of a Hung Parliament:
1. SNP, Lib Dems and Labour Europhiles all insist on a 2nd EU referendum. It is held. Narrow win for Remain. 2. In helping to shove the UK back into the EU, the SNP then wreck their 2nd shot at independence, because they can't convince enough Scottish voters why leaving the EU under one set of terms was a disaster but leaving under another set of terms would be a panacea
If it weren't for Scottish votes the Tories could win outright with 296 seats and would be better than 90% likely to bring it home against any plausible Labour surge. But that's a counterfactual. In the real world the Scottish votes are there, and the SNP may soon end up in a most invidious position.
If they successfully lobby for Britain's place in Europe then they'll probably end up locking Scotland into the UK too.
Indeed, BUT simultaneously, if UK remains in EU the case for Scotland to leave becomes much less hard to argue (WRT borders, trade, standards, free movement, currency. Same for Irish Unification).
The previous argument suggesting Scotland should stay in the UK to remain in the EU has been revealed as the joke it was, and the (meaningless) 'Vow' can't be repeated this time. They'll also get their currency act together, and won't be arguing on oil anymore which was always tenuous and volatile; the Greens there will put a more cogent argument with them.
If SNP win big and there's a hung parliament, that is really the only chance in near future; the spectre of Boris Johnson and Tories and Brexit having been kept out by a nick might still be enough. The main impediment would be the LDs (and Con) trying to block a ref if there was a Lab min Gov.
Sturgeon better make a better attack on Johnson then Lab and Corbyn (who doesn't do such personal attacks), and she's started.
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.
That is very useful. So Labour probably need to win Grimsby and Dudley North to make it a hung parliament. That’s a tough ask with their Brexit policy.
I'm amazed they have Dudley North as close.
It's 20% EM and they'll stick with Labour in the main.
If you’re a Tory supporter I expect you’d wish the next two weeks flies by and just want it over and done with.
I think the danger for the Tories is really to not drop the Ming vase . Johnson really just has to avoid any gaffes and hope the Trump visit goes okay .
That visit must be causing some concern in no 10 , although I expect Trump to stay on message re the NHS he can still do some damage.
If Trump does drop a clanger, it [Love] actually gives Boris a priceless PR opportunity - "I'm sorry Mr. President, but our NHS is not for sale to anyone, for any price. Not even to you".
So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.
Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?
Getting over 200 seats with Jeremy Corbyn as leader would be an extraordinary result for Labour. It gives the party a thoroughly undeserved chance to bounce back, especially given what’s coming down the line. My expectation was (is) comfortably sub-200.
Extraordinarily bad yes, even when squeezing the Liberal vote to death unlike 1983 Corbyn still does worse than Ed Miliband and Kinnock and Gordon Brown
Labour should be doing much, much worse in my opinion.
Is there anything on how YG have assessed tactical voting in this MRP?
For example I suspect East Devon will be possibly (the only) Independent win (Claire Wright): if tactical voting works.
(Seems incomprehensible why Greens and LDs stood against her, and Lab for that matter).
And it could come significantly into play with those close SNP/Con seats and with PC/Con/Lab in Ynys Môn.
Tactical voting seats will be the most difficult to estimate using this method because demographics obviously cannot take tactical voting into account.
😶. Aren’t all seats tactical voting seats in this election. Take Mogg seat as an example. Is it % swing since last election, as Jeremy vine would display, or in fact adding up all leave votes in the seat giving to Mogster, all remain votes in the seat giving them to libdem, and calculating what swing remain need to oust leader of the house, factoring in libdem done well in seat this year giving Jacob a libdem counsellor, and that the voters put in Labour MP few elections ago?
Most seats are safe seats and therefore tactical voting won't feature much.
If this was two weeks before 92 who predicted Patten to fall?
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.
If the Tories had any sense they would be taking this and going all Lib Dems and for all the close seats putting the bar charts on there with a clear message.
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.
After 2017, no one will believe it, and no doubt worse polls will come out between now and election day that will create the impression of a tight race and avoid complacency.
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.
Is this poll gonna have cut-through with anyone other than us nerds? It may in turn build a narrative in the media of comfortable Tory win that is dangerous for Boris, but on the other hand all other recent polls have showed a narrowing. The Tories can whip out the Survations and ICMs of this world, with their 7% leads, and say 'look chaps, this is just way too tight'.
In addition, the Tories can point wavering Brexiteers in northern and Midlands seats to 2017 for what happens when people give their vote to magic Grandpa: hung parliament, no Brexit.
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.
But all the seats they are winning are ones that wish to get Brexit done. He knows that and the message is resonating. He is harnessing Brexit to win the election and he knows it is more powerful than the plague on both their houses message.
Leigh isn't going Tory. No chance. And I wonder whether that points to the shortcomings of the MRP approach - places like Leigh demographically should not be as staunch Labour as they are - negligible BAME, above average home ownership etc But 100 years of Labour MPs and Labour councillors has to count for something
Some of the best holds for Labour according to the model: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Canterbury, Croydon Central, Reading East, Bridgend, Gower, Newport West, Lincoln, Gedling, Lancaster.
Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?
Getting over 200 seats with Jeremy Corbyn as leader would be an extraordinary result for Labour. It gives the party a thoroughly undeserved chance to bounce back, especially given what’s coming down the line. My expectation was (is) comfortably sub-200.
What’s so extraordinary about it? They did it two years ago. Small sample size(!) but labour have never not got over 200 seats with Corbyn as leader
Some of the best holds for Labour according to the model: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Canterbury, Croydon Central, Reading East, Bridgend, Gower, Newport West, Lincoln, Gedling, Lancaster.
Is there anything on how YG have assessed tactical voting in this MRP?
For example I suspect East Devon will be possibly (the only) Independent win (Claire Wright): if tactical voting works.
(Seems incomprehensible why Greens and LDs stood against her, and Lab for that matter).
And it could come significantly into play with those close SNP/Con seats and with PC/Con/Lab in Ynys Môn.
Tactical voting seats will be the most difficult to estimate using this method because demographics obviously cannot take tactical voting into account.
😶. Aren’t all seats tactical voting seats in this election. Take Mogg seat as an example. Is it % swing since last election, as Jeremy vine would display, or in fact adding up all leave votes in the seat giving to Mogster, all remain votes in the seat giving them to libdem, and calculating what swing remain need to oust leader of the house, factoring in libdem done well in seat this year giving Jacob a libdem counsellor, and that the voters put in Labour MP few elections ago?
Most seats are safe seats and therefore tactical voting won't feature much.
If this was two weeks before 92 who predicted Patten to fall?
As I recall it was widely predicted he was in trouble, to the point where it was suggested he could take leave from party chairman duties and campaign in his seat full time, but he chose not to.
Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?
Getting over 200 seats with Jeremy Corbyn as leader would be an extraordinary result for Labour. It gives the party a thoroughly undeserved chance to bounce back, especially given what’s coming down the line. My expectation was (is) comfortably sub-200.
Extraordinarily bad yes, even when squeezing the Liberal vote to death unlike 1983 Corbyn still does worse than Ed Miliband and Kinnock and Gordon Brown
Labour should be doing much, much worse in my opinion.
I really beg to differ here.
The Tories have been in charge for nearly a decade (the majority of which with out a majority) presided over some pretty tough economic measures (as needed as they may have been, still vastly unpopular) leading the absolute shambles of brexit, having gone through 3 Prime Ministers, multiple MP's leaving the party to cross the floor. That's just the start.
Bear in mind Major's victory in 1992 is the only occasion of a party winning 4 consecutive general elections since 1900. So to suggest that Labour should be doing worse than losing 50+ seats and recording their worst general election result in terms of seats since 1935, in what would be their 4th consecutive general election loss is frankly astonishing.
If any Corbynistas are reading this, Just know that the any other Labour leader should be thrashing the Tories at the moment.
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.
Unlikely as most of the seats where LD swing to Labour would count are Labour holds anyway, the Tories gains are mainly in Leave seats the LDs vote is negligible and there is a big Brexit Party vote to squeeze. Those seats are pro Boris and pro Brexit
"a seven-way debate between party leaders on the BBC on Friday night will feature Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, in Mr Corbyn’s place."
The annointed one, if more proof were really needed. Still available at 9/2 as next Labour leader.
They are pointing out it’s another one Boris playing safety first from, maybe in greenhouse with kinnock? It’s that poor chief sec to the tres again, or cannon fodder as probably known in CCHQ. And Jo and Nic will say why’s Boris running scared from debating us, and will go easy on wrongbaileys all being sisters together. No I did not mention the Scottish play. Farage is there to uptick his own vote. What’s lost on some People is when Farage so effectively lays into labour its Tory votes he’s winning.
Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon. I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value. Camel should be happy!
Yes, 5/1 in Ynys Mon would be up there with my 2017 Hallam surprise. I have 3s on North Norfolk too, If this was the election result it would be bittersweet. Betting-wise, literally as good as it gets. Politically speaking, upsetting. I expect some movement over the next 13 days though.
Just watching the Corbyn interview, what is really telling is he has no idea about the financial side of things. McDonnell has clearly told him x,y and z and Jezza is so dense he has thought that it doesn't sound quite right. He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.
Some of the best holds for Labour according to the model: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Canterbury, Croydon Central, Reading East, Bridgend, Gower, Newport West, Lincoln, Gedling, Lancaster.
Lincoln is the one that seems the most anomalous.
Lincoln is low on the Boomer percentage at 27.6%
Is Boomer the new gammon?
No, but age is a very strong indicator of voting intention, perhaps stronger than Brexit vote. I am a tail end Boomer myself, just a month off being Gen X, a demographic that I feel is a better fit.
If you’re a Tory supporter I expect you’d wish the next two weeks flies by and just want it over and done with.
I think the danger for the Tories is really to not drop the Ming vase . Johnson really just has to avoid any gaffes and hope the Trump visit goes okay .
That visit must be causing some concern in no 10 , although I expect Trump to stay on message re the NHS he can still do some damage.
If Trump does drop a clanger, it [Love] actually gives Boris a priceless PR opportunity - "I'm sorry Mr. President, but our NHS is not for sale to anyone, for any price. Not even to you".
Now that would be a dramatic end to the campaign
It would be but any mention of the NHS being part of trade talks from Trump would be a disaster for Johnson regardless of his come back.
I don’t see Trump causing problems over the NHS but there are other areas in which he could cause some problems.
Controversial take time Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic
It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds
Comments
The annointed one, if more proof were really needed. Still available at 9/2 as next Labour leader.
Ooh, handy
https://twitter.com/forwardnotback/status/1199823502364282880
With 632 seats it's reliable but with 50 states it's not, the sample would be too small for states that are as large as a european country by them selves, that's why yougov's american MRP failed in the 2016 US presidential election.
If some of this type of stuff comes to pass, then 2019 will be a watershed election
Take Mogg seat as an example. Is it % swing since last election, as Jeremy vine would display, or in fact adding up all leave votes in the seat giving to Mogster, all remain votes in the seat giving them to libdem, and calculating what swing remain need to oust leader of the house, factoring in libdem done well in seat this year giving Jacob a libdem counsellor, and that the voters put in Labour MP few elections ago?
Seriously, if they are holding up in cities, youth quake mark 2 around Uni’s, dying hard in NE and late recovery in Wales, they need to be slaughtered somewhere for the predictions to be accurate.
Didn’t feel like that though even in early 18 point lead days whenever Boris went there. I recall Big G getting excited by Boris making innuendo in a Coventry factory amongst middle aged men, but doesn’t their wives cancel out those votes?
To be honest Labour deserve to be sub 200, but then again so do the Tories under Boris, but sadly they are currently operating in the high 300s with more to come.
I think the danger for the Tories is really to not drop the Ming vase . Johnson really just has to avoid any gaffes and hope the Trump visit goes okay .
That visit must be causing some concern in no 10 , although I expect Trump to stay on message re the NHS he can still do some damage.
Looking at the minor parties: Lucas romps home in Brighton, but the Greens don't make much progress in Bristol or anywhere else. BXP stand to come second in Barnsley Central, and get 20% in a dozen or so seats, but they're not close to winning anywhere on these figures. Not many SNP marginals and Plaid has little to win or lose. No Northern Ireland figures here.
Lincoln is the one that seems the most anomalous.
Another thing, if Labour continue to rise it should impact the SNP in Scotland just like the Conservative surge did.
If I can find enough time at the weekend, I shall produce my own spreadsheet model.
The previous argument suggesting Scotland should stay in the UK to remain in the EU has been revealed as the joke it was, and the (meaningless) 'Vow' can't be repeated this time. They'll also get their currency act together, and won't be arguing on oil anymore which was always tenuous and volatile; the Greens there will put a more cogent argument with them.
If SNP win big and there's a hung parliament, that is really the only chance in near future; the spectre of Boris Johnson and Tories and Brexit having been kept out by a nick might still be enough. The main impediment would be the LDs (and Con) trying to block a ref if there was a Lab min Gov.
Sturgeon better make a better attack on Johnson then Lab and Corbyn (who doesn't do such personal attacks), and she's started.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
Now that would be a dramatic end to the campaign
Warrington South was Tory 2010-2017
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
LDs now polling higher in Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham, Cities of London and Westminster and Wimbledon than a seat they held from 1997 to 2015
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1199827794949296128
In addition, the Tories can point wavering Brexiteers in northern and Midlands seats to 2017 for what happens when people give their vote to magic Grandpa: hung parliament, no Brexit.
Con 35%
Lab 28%
PC 28%
BRX 9%
LDs and Greens are negligible.
Con 43%, Lab 39%, BRX 10%, LD 5%, Grn 2%.
The Tories have been in charge for nearly a decade (the majority of which with out a majority) presided over some pretty tough economic measures (as needed as they may have been, still vastly unpopular) leading the absolute shambles of brexit, having gone through 3 Prime Ministers, multiple MP's leaving the party to cross the floor. That's just the start.
Bear in mind Major's victory in 1992 is the only occasion of a party winning 4 consecutive general elections since 1900. So to suggest that Labour should be doing worse than losing 50+ seats and recording their worst general election result in terms of seats since 1935, in what would be their 4th consecutive general election loss is frankly astonishing.
If any Corbynistas are reading this, Just know that the any other Labour leader should be thrashing the Tories at the moment.
And Jo and Nic will say why’s Boris running scared from debating us, and will go easy on wrongbaileys all being sisters together.
No I did not mention the Scottish play.
Farage is there to uptick his own vote. What’s lost on some People is when Farage so effectively lays into labour its Tory votes he’s winning.
If this was the election result it would be bittersweet. Betting-wise, literally as good as it gets. Politically speaking, upsetting.
I expect some movement over the next 13 days though.
He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.
I am a tail end Boomer myself, just a month off being Gen X, a demographic that I feel is a better fit.
https://twitter.com/JamesDMorris/status/1199816086537068545
Everyone else underperformed; SNP 1.4%, Lib Dems 1.9%, UKIP 1.6%, Greens 0.5%.
I don’t see Trump causing problems over the NHS but there are other areas in which he could cause some problems.
https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1199819421876928520
Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic