politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now the YouGov MRP projection – a CON majority of 68

rottenborough said:

I think this is very bad for Johnson.

If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.

LOL! If Con was on course to lose the election that would be bad news. But Con being on course to win the election is bad news as well?

Seems like whatever happens its a terrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories on PB sometimes.

If I was Boris I know I'd prefer this MRP to the 2017 MRP anyway.

wooliedyed said:

Controversial take time
Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

I think/hope you're right.

The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/cthomashealth/status/1199810676757291008

The data is not old, it's based on a Tory lead of 11%, which is where yougov is at the moment.

A lot of straw clutching going on

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/cthomashealth/status/1199810676757291008

Nope, Yougov shows Boris doing a Trump, getting an above average swing in white working class areas full of marginal Leave voting seats

Philip_Thompson said:

wooliedyed said:

Controversial take time
Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

I think/hope you're right.

The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.

It certainly gives the lie to "Tory fake news" when Corbyn waves 451 pages of it!

A cautionary note for blues

2017 MRP was bad for Tories because nobody believed it
2919 could be bad if everyone believes it

*** Betting Post ***

Sky Bet Ynys Mon Con 4/1

Philip_Thompson said:

wooliedyed said:

Controversial take time
Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

I think/hope you're right.

The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.

I bet Jezza never read it....just like the Withdrawal Act...and probably still thinks what he said was true, because his advisers told him and it is the biased media again.

BluerBlue said:

Philip_Thompson said:

wooliedyed said:

Controversial take time
Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

I think/hope you're right.

The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.

It certainly gives the lie to "Tory fake news" when Corbyn waves 451 pages of it!

The problem for Corbyn wasn't just that it was bullshit. It was that the reason it was bullshit could easily be explained in a few words. Claiming Boris was selling the NHS with documents from before he was Prime Minister was obviously laughable.

Last time round the average error for Tory/Labour was 0.06% per seat

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/cthomashealth/status/1199810676757291008

Nope, Yougov shows Boris doing a Trump, getting an above average swing in white working class areas full of marginal Leave voting seats

You are your own worst enemy. Please don't put Boris and Trump in the same sentence. 🙄

You may not like it but their voter coalitions are similar, winning big swings in white working class ex industrial areas and towns in the North and Midlands or Pennsylvania and the Midwest but losing some upper middle class voters in big cities and wealthy suburbs

rottenborough said:

Should this be PB's new masthead??

"Polls can’t tell you what is actually going to happen on polling day.”

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1199827542741401600

The BBC really needs to stop having on activists that pretend to be journalists.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Having just watched the Jezza interview, I know why he only managed to D's in his A-levels (despite going to one of the best state schools)....

*two 😂

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

wooliedyed said:

Controversial take time
Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

I think/hope you're right.

The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.

I bet Jezza never read it....just like the Withdrawal Act...and probably still thinks what he said was true, because his advisers told him and it is the biased media again.

I think its pretty certain Jezza never read it. Even if he had I'm not sure he'd understand it.

I can only imagine what a shit show his red box will be if he ever becomes PM. Gordo reported couldn't manage at all with the constant demands / speed required and he wasn't a total dunce.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just watching the Corbyn interview, what is really telling is he has no idea about the financial side of things. McDonnell has clearly told him x,y and z and Jezza is so dense he has thought that it doesn't sound quite right.
He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.

Boris would be equally, if not even more vague, this is why he can't do Neil interview, unless the Tories can get assurances from the BBC that Neil will only ask easy questions.

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just watching the Corbyn interview, what is really telling is he has no idea about the financial side of things. McDonnell has clearly told him x,y and z and Jezza is so dense he has thought that it doesn't sound quite right.
He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.

Boris would be equally, if not even more vague, this is why he can't do Neil interview, unless the Tories can get assurances from the BBC that Neil will only ask easy questions.

Boris problem is laziness / thinking he can wing it because he has done so for most of his life.

Looking at Newcastle under Lyme I see one of TissuePrice's predecessors in the seat was Spencer Horsey de Horsey. What a great name!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spencer_Horsey_de_Horsey

another_richard said:

*** Betting Post ***

Sky Bet Ynys Mon Con 4/1

Probably won't last long after the Tories are shown 7% ahead in the study.

I posted a week ago suggesting backing the seat spread of Labour to be above 208 on sporting index.

While suspended at the moment, probably until tomorrow morning. It was sitting on buy at 211.

I would seriously suggest this. Polls are tightening and tactical voting is going to be high, i believe Labour will finish around the 260 mark.

ReggieCide said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

wooliedyed said:

Controversial take time
Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

I think/hope you're right.

The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.

I bet Jezza never read it....just like the Withdrawal Act...and probably still thinks what he said was true, because his advisers told him and it is the biased media again.

I think its pretty certain Jezza never read it. Even if he had I'm not sure he'd understand it.

Perhaps he's having a problem with the new glasses

Even with Google Glass or Hololens, I don't think it would solve Jezza's shortcomings in the brain department.

Gabs3 said:

rottenborough said:

Should this be PB's new masthead??

"Polls can’t tell you what is actually going to happen on polling day.”

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1199827542741401600

The BBC really needs to stop having on activists that pretend to be journalists.

The BBC is populated with people pretending to be journalists so they likely wouldn't recognise a journalist if one slipped in

Ochil and Perthshire South,
Tories 41%

SNP 40%. Close

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

wooliedyed said:

Controversial take time
Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic

I think/hope you're right.

The thing is when Corbyn was waving redacted documents then it seemed plausible there'd be something nefarious hidden in them. Now unredacted documents are printed and there's nothing in them controversial it could be an "Emperors New Clothes" moment. The more the media looked into the documents the more they seemed to realise/state that what Corbyn was claiming isn't backed up by the documents. So he just looks like he is making it up now.

That is the danger of claiming something as your smoking gun.

I bet Jezza never read it....just like the Withdrawal Act...and probably still thinks what he said was true, because his advisers told him and it is the biased media again.

I think its pretty certain Jezza never read it. Even if he had I'm not sure he'd understand it.

I can only imagine what a shit show his red box will be if he ever becomes PM. Gordo reported couldn't manage at all with the constant demands / speed required and he wasn't a total dunce.

Could be the opposite problem as Gordo had though. Gordo apparently wanted to micromanage so got bogged on a few items then the others backed up. I'd imagine Corbyn would just sign whatever he was told to sign without thinking or reading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zQ55S-DJsM

My understanding was not only the micromanaging, but he was used to having weeks / months to prepare for set pieces like the budget and instead the stuff in the red box requires a decision that day.

So what happened was they put stuff in there, he took an age to read through, claimed he wanted to look at it more, end of the day he didn't finish, and they then had to put it back in the next day. There was a famous photo of when he left of piles of paperwork he hadn't got around to signing off as the backlog had grown and grown.

I don't see Corbyn having the same problem. Milne says he should sign something, he signs it.

The 75 Lab-Con battlegrounds and the 30 LD battlegrounds https://ukelect.wordpress.com/2019/11/27/the-key-seats/

Two weeks to go, they shouldn't be spending their time/money anywhere else.

Pulpstar said:

Last time round, Tories outperformed the MRP by 2.2% on average, Labour 2.1%, Plaid 0.9%.

Everyone else underperformed; SNP 1.4%, Lib Dems 1.9%, UKIP 1.6%, Greens 0.5%.

The question is, has yougov implemented changes to their model to reflect last time's errors? If so, we could be compensating twice. And was last time's variance due to random error, in which case there might be two lots of adjustments on a number that's actually right...

egg said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

If this happens, it is game on:

https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1199819421876928520

It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds

Looking at this big seat poll, not all those labour holds look credible on such a bad night, and many of the tory gains not credible on any night. This taking Labour seats because they voted leave thing was talked up and didn’t happen two years ago. Shippers suggests anti Semitic plays bigger this time. You might say, yet again, it didn’t happen last time because May messed election up. It still feels to me though that the truth is, when it comes to it, many labour leave voters 2016 are labour GE voters in GE.

They aren't this time as Boris is a Leaver, May was a Remainer and Corbyn has not delivered Brexit as he promised in 2017 while Boris will

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just watching the Corbyn interview, what is really telling is he has no idea about the financial side of things. McDonnell has clearly told him x,y and z and Jezza is so dense he has thought that it doesn't sound quite right.
He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.

He was clearly talking shite, either lying through his teeth or completely ignorant of the facts.

Beibheirli_C said:

camel said:

llef said:

Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon.
I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value.
Camel should be happy!

Yes, 5/1 in Ynys Mon would be up there with my 2017 Hallam surprise. I have 3s on North Norfolk too,
If this was the election result it would be bittersweet. Betting-wise, literally as good as it gets. Politically speaking, upsetting.
I expect some movement over the next 13 days though.

Anglesey? Conservative? They have won it twice in the last 100 years (1979 & 83) and the current Lab MP is sitting on a 5,000 majority..,

Indeed. Ynys Mon is my comedy bet. Though both of today's MRPs share my sense of humour.

As you can see, the tory PPC is a local lass with a long record of electoral success in Wales:

"The Conservatives have chosen the Chair of Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham Conservatives to stand in the Ynys Môn constituency.
Virginia Ann Crosbie is a maths teacher has lived in West Sussex for 10 years with her husband and three children. Her Grandfather was from Merthyr Tydfil, and her father from Monmouth. She has previously stood in the Rhondda constituency, winning 10% of the vote in 2017 which she describes on her website as an “exceptional result in a challenging election”.

Gabs3 said:

rottenborough said:

Should this be PB's new masthead??

"Polls can’t tell you what is actually going to happen on polling day.”

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1199827542741401600

The BBC really needs to stop having on activists that pretend to be journalists.

Put her up against Sir John Curtice, David Denver, Peter Kellner and the ghost of Tony King.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199812755815124992

camel said:

Beibheirli_C said:

camel said:

llef said:

Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon.
I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value.
Camel should be happy!

Yes, 5/1 in Ynys Mon would be up there with my 2017 Hallam surprise. I have 3s on North Norfolk too,
If this was the election result it would be bittersweet. Betting-wise, literally as good as it gets. Politically speaking, upsetting.
I expect some movement over the next 13 days though.

Anglesey? Conservative? They have won it twice in the last 100 years (1979 & 83) and the current Lab MP is sitting on a 5,000 majority..,

Indeed. Ynys Mon is my comedy bet. Though both of today's MRPs share my sense of humour.

As you can see, the tory PPC is a local lass with a long record of electoral success in Wales:

"The Conservatives have chosen the Chair of Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham Conservatives to stand in the Ynys Môn constituency.
Virginia Ann Crosbie is a maths teacher has lived in West Sussex for 10 years with her husband and three children. Her Grandfather was from Merthyr Tydfil, and her father from Monmouth. She has previously stood in the Rhondda constituency, winning 10% of the vote in 2017 which she describes on her website as an “exceptional result in a challenging election”.

When Keith Best won Anglesey in 1979 I think he was also elected the same day as a councillor in Brighton.

Well it might not have been him but there was certainly somebody who was elected as a councillor on the same day as he was unexpectedly elected an MP in a totally different place.

Change in Labour share between YouGov MRP and GE2017:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Sbmz9OAwHUz8fuFN2S9s011tDQw_RXmr4W1wjUb6bnw/edit#gid=0

HYUFD said:

Look at that map, big Tory gains north of Watford, none at all in the South bar Eastbourne and only 2 in London, Dagenham and Kensington.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1199816048037502981?s=20

This election could see the Tories becoming more like the GOP as their vote becomes more working class and northern and less middle class and southern, any losses they do make though to Liberals in London and the South mainly (bar 3 to the SNP)

If it does happen then maybe the Tories would start to really take the North South divide seriously instead of just messing around with vanity projects and paying lip service to the majority of the country.

Is Liverpool Riverside really going to have one of the worst changes for Labour, with a drop from 85% to 64%?

egg said:

HYUFD said:

egg said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

If this happens, it is game on:

https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1199819421876928520

It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds

Looking at this big seat poll, not all those labour holds look credible on such a bad night, and many of the tory gains not credible on any night. This taking Labour seats because they voted leave thing was talked up and didn’t happen two years ago. Shippers suggests anti Semitic plays bigger this time. You might say, yet again, it didn’t happen last time because May messed election up. It still feels to me though that the truth is, when it comes to it, many labour leave voters 2016 are labour GE voters in GE.

They aren't this time as Boris is a Leaver, May was a Remainer and Corbyn has not delivered Brexit as he promised in 2017 while Boris will

And that is the game in a nutshell. Is their politics defined by brexit, or labour. We will get a definitive answer this time, as to if you and Richard Tyndall are correct in your confidence, or I prove right that these people’s politics is primarily the economics of Labour when one or other has to give.

Oh I am not confident at all. I am still scarred from last time around so I take none of this on faith. I can just see justifiable reasons why things might happen a particular way. I will be over the moon if they do work out that way but at the moment feel I am just as likely going to be crushed again.

Increases in Labour share:

Leeds NW: +5%
Canterbury: +2%
Isle of Wight: +1%
Porsmouth South: +1%

egg said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

egg said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

If this happens, it is game on:

https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1199819421876928520

It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds

Looking at this big seat poll, not all those labour holds look credible on such a bad night, and many of the tory gains not credible on any night. This taking Labour seats because they voted leave thing was talked up and didn’t happen two years ago. Shippers suggests anti Semitic plays bigger this time. You might say, yet again, it didn’t happen last time because May messed election up. It still feels to me though that the truth is, when it comes to it, many labour leave voters 2016 are labour GE voters in GE.

As I have said often. Two years ago Corbyn effectively neutralised Brexit in Leave seats by promising he would make sure we left. He cannot do that this time.

Yeah that’s a good point.

I suspect the tories will need to destroy BXP on the ground to have a good night. The average voter isn't that switched on. I still know of people who are intending to vote BXP in labour held marginals because they want think that will deliver Brexit - indeed many think BXP will win seats. Problem the tories have is they don't have enough ground troops in old coalfield places like NE Wales, Durham and West Yorkshire where BXP are polling 5-10%.

camel said:

egg said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

egg said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

If this happens, it is game on:

https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1199819421876928520

It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holds

Looking at this big seat poll, not all those labour holds look credible on such a bad night, and many of the tory gains not credible on any night. This taking Labour seats because they voted leave thing was talked up and didn’t happen two years ago. Shippers suggests anti Semitic plays bigger this time. You might say, yet again, it didn’t happen last time because May messed election up. It still feels to me though that the truth is, when it comes to it, many labour leave voters 2016 are labour GE voters in GE.

As I have said often. Two years ago Corbyn effectively neutralised Brexit in Leave seats by promising he would make sure we left. He cannot do that this time.

Yeah that’s a good point.

I suspect the tories will need to destroy BXP on the ground to have a good night. The average voter isn't that switched on. I still know of people who are intending to vote BXP in labour held marginals because they want think that will deliver Brexit - indeed many think BXP will win seats. Problem the tories have is they don't have enough ground troops in old coalfield places like NE Wales, Durham and West Yorkshire where BXP are polling 5-10%.

BXP are also taking enough Labour votes to enable the Tories to win seats like Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Bolsover and Dagenham and Workington and West Bromwich East and West with Yougov tonight which have never elected a Tory MP before

Henrietta said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Last time round, Tories outperformed the MRP by 2.2% on average, Labour 2.1%, Plaid 0.9%.

Everyone else underperformed; SNP 1.4%, Lib Dems 1.9%, UKIP 1.6%, Greens 0.5%.

The question is, has yougov implemented changes to their model to reflect last time's errors? If so, we could be compensating twice. And was last time's variance due to random error, in which case there might be two lots of adjustments on a number that's actually right...

I'd like to compare the distribution of their confidence intervals with last time, and in particular to look at which 50 seats they felt and feel least confident about, but for some reason they haven't put CIs in their spreadsheet as they did in 2017.

There are a lot of *really* close LD/Con marginals in this model, many more than I would have expected. If the LDs get 17% rather than 14%, then they'll be on 20 plus seats, and if they get 12%, they could well end up down on the night.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would rather be in the position the conservatives are tonight than labour

However, I am not complacent and we have 13 more days before polls open

I intend keeping my feet on the ground and await the final verdict on the 13th December

Lots of betting opportunitirs I assume

Anyway time for me to say

'Good night folks'

Looking at the seven Clwyd seats
Aberconwy Con 47 Lab 41
Alyn Deeside Con 42 Lab 42
Clwyd South Con 43 Lab 41
Clwyd West Con 51 Lab 34
Delyn Con 43 Lab 43
Vale Clwyd Con 43 Lab 41
Wrexham Con 42 Lab 38

Does it seem plausible that the Tories could sweep all seven seats ?

Andy_JS said:

Increases in Labour share:

Leeds NW: +5%
Canterbury: +2%
Isle of Wight: +1%
Porsmouth South: +1%

Canterbury and Leeds NW both have large student populations. And tuition fees haven't even had a news cycle yet.

MRP & Don Valley..
We are given to believe that BJ&co will be receiving an 8% majority, or 4000 on a 2017 turnout.
Given Flinty had a 5000 lab Maj in 2017, and is quite well thought of hereabouts for actually supporting Leave (sort of), presumably nearly all of these ex pit villagers are now voting Tory.
This in a seat last held by a non-lab MP in 1918.
Not coincidentally, I suspect, at this last event the Tories didn't stand..
UGov are having a giraffe.

Andy_JS said:

The seat forecast I find most puzzling is the SNP gaining Caithness from the LDs. I'd be pretty surprised if that actually happens on election night.

Lib Denms winning here losing everywhere....

Looks like today's Labour dossier will be all the iffy stuff that Boris has said over the years...
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50581208

shiney2 said:

MRP & Don Valley..
We are given to believe that BJ&co will be receiving an 8% majority, or 4000 on a 2017 turnout.
Given Flinty had a 5000 lab Maj in 2017, and is quite well thought of hereabouts for actually supporting Leave (sort of), presumably nearly all of these ex pit villagers are now voting Tory.
This in a seat last held by a non-lab MP in 1918.
Not coincidentally, I suspect, at this last event the Tories didn't stand..
UGov are having a giraffe.

Flint will lose.

The problem that rebel Labour MPs have got is that their support for the Boris deal has not increased support for *them* as MPs but has hardened support for *Brexit* in their constituencies, and voters who want to "Get Brexit done" are much more likely to support Boris or Farage. In other words these MPs get no thanks at all from their constituents.

If the YouGov MRP gets it right again, I can see traditional opinion polls being ditched altogether in favour of MRP-type studies. (I know there is a certain overlap between the two methods).