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wooliedyed said:

They cut 20k off Raabs majority but only get 14 seats??? Seems a little odd

Lots and lots of painfully close second places.

ozymandias said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

So the Tory manifesto is going to be boring, very very boring

But sane.

I can only admire your optimism.

Good night.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198361884191264770

Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?

Hardline Brexiteer in a very Remainy part of the world.

He's a human dildo given the way he's embarrassed himself over the location of Dover and handling of the Harry Dunn incident. Threatening to bankrupt his parents is not a good look.

Yes I forgot about that last bit .

The polls - not the OPINIUM one but the later ones - do indicate a Corbyn and Sturgeon majority is quite likely so beware!!!

NickPalmer said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198360629930790916?s=19

That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.

The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):

Con+31
Lab -49
LD +6
SNP +14
Plaid +1
- not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.

Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.

Doesn't it had LDs up 2? Thought we won 12 seat last time. I might have misunderstood your post, however.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198360629930790916?s=19

That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.

270,000? I know MRP samples are big, but it seems to me more like they must've burned through all YouGov's normal panel interviews and MRPs over a substantial period. IANAS, but I wonder if enough of those will have carried the level of demographic data needed for high quality regression and strata building.

Gallowgate said:

Byronic said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Flashy5 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698

What was this called when Labour proposed it?

Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.

To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.

Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.

Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. Simple

Who’s going to do that? How would they verify it? Where would it take place?

Nothing is as simple as that.

The problem at the Leicester Royal Infirmary is not the price of parking, but rather the availibility. I have never heard a complaint about the charges, but get several a day about the wait to get in the carpark.

It's supply and demand. Build us a 2000 space multi storey carpark*, then quibble about charges.

*where being an obvious first question! Perhaps scrap the new maternity and children's block to find space!

NickPalmer said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198360629930790916?s=19

That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.

The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):

Con+31
Lab -49
LD +6
SNP +14
Plaid +1
- not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.

Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.

It's +2 Lib Dem (they won 12 MPs at GE2017) and +32 Conservatives (compared to 317 at GE2017), so the numbers do balance.

Curtice explains why the seat lead might be slightly more modest that the headline polls suggest:

https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1198366319399329792?s=19

Andrew said:

Time_to_Leave said:

In the (one would think) unlikely event of a Tory win but a Boris loss, who gets the call from the Palace? Cabinet coronation of Hunt or Javid?

Bring back Theresa.

And she then gets her deal through parliament with Boris's majority.

NoSpaceName said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198361884191264770

How can the Lib Dems be on only 14 seats in this model and within 3,000 votes of unseating Raab?

I would have thought that if they get that close to winning Raab's seat they would have to be into the high 20s at a minimum already.

God alone knows. It's a shame we can't see the list of the 14 predicted seats. Perhaps the model predicts some extreme swings against a handful of Brexiteer Tories whilst, simultaneously, showing a string of successful Lab defences in constituencies like Cambridge, and handing a clutch of existing LD seats over to the SNP and Conservatives further away from London?

Westmorland and Lonsdale, North Norfolk, possibly Eastbourne, and one or more of the seats in Scotland might be rated as losses.

Anyway, the model appears to imply about four dozen net Labour losses. I would guess that kind of serious, but not catastrophic, damage implies the expected decimation in Scotland, significant reverses in the Midlands, but lighter damage in the North and Wales.

RobD said:

Time_to_Leave said:

In the (one would think) unlikely event of a Tory win but a Boris loss, who gets the call from the Palace? Cabinet coronation of Hunt or Javid?

Boris PM from the Lords?

Unelected Has-Beens?

Cookie said:

NickPalmer said:

squareroot2 said:

NickPalmer said:

I think it's simply a correction to the last poll, which had a weird LD dip. Corbyn's improved leader rating reflects the debate, where a substantial majority said he "did well", and he effectively tied the result - quite a lot of people thought "He's actually not that bad" but without rushing to vote Labour.

most people didn't watch the debate, nor do they give a flying fuck about the debate either. to ascribe changes in polling to a debate few watched is ludicrous IMHO.. WVM loathes Corbyn.. you heard it here ………….

To what do you ascribe the sharp recovery in Corbyn's rating, then (admittedly just from "dreadful" to "bad")? I'm not wedded to the debate theory, but it's the obvious thing for a change during this week, no? It's not helped the party yet, though, so it's of marginal interest.

I assign this to Labour/Momentum's social media barrage. In the run uo to an election, virtually every bit of politics I see without actively choosing to is on social media, and is relentlessly pro-Corbyn and anti-Tory.

Almost everything political I see on social media is incredibly anti Corbyn.

That's one of the things about it. We all see different things.

Casino_Royale said:

Curtice explains why the seat lead might be slightly more modest that the headline polls suggest:

https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1198366319399329792?s=19

Of course the 2017 mrp models had a range attached. This theoretically is a midpoint I guess?

Slight subtlety in the Tory plans on hospital parking. The BBC says it's for protected groups and night shift workers only.

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198360629930790916?s=19

Why have they listed the LibDems above the SNP?

RobD said:

Time_to_Leave said:

In the (one would think) unlikely event of a Tory win but a Boris loss, who gets the call from the Palace? Cabinet coronation of Hunt or Javid?

Boris PM from the Lords?

The irony of being governed by an unelected reject which was many Brexiters' primary argument in favour of leaving the EU.

My guess is that we will see a number of MRP models, and not all of them will be accurate.

NickPalmer said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198360629930790916?s=19

That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.

The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):

Con+31
Lab -49
LD +6
SNP +14
Plaid +1
- not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.

Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.

It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.

TheScreamingEagles said:

IshmaelZ said:

nico67 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198361884191264770

Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?

Hardline Brexiteer in a very Remainy part of the world.

He's a human dildo given the way he's embarrassed himself over the location of Dover and handling of the Harry Dunn incident. Threatening to bankrupt his parents is not a good look.

Yes I forgot about that last bit .

Surely "human dildo" is a compliment? Like "he ain't no man, he's a lovin' machine."

It was an autocorrect, it should read 'Marzipan dildo'

Steady on. Should Boris get decapitated in Uxbridge or fall on his sword when the Arcuri financial arrangement finally reaches full scandal status, Raab is quite likely next PM!

Another poll

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1198365285901881345

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198360629930790916?s=19

That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.

The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):

Con+31
Lab -49
LD +6
SNP +14
Plaid +1
- not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.

Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.

It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.

I still think they will.

About 9-12 seats, I think. LDs should hold onto all of theirs and Labour only 1-3 seats.

So, 40-45 SNP seats.

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198360629930790916?s=19

That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.

The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):

Con+31
Lab -49
LD +6
SNP +14
Plaid +1
- not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.

Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.

It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.

The lack of Scotland polling is depressing. I think 49 is too high for the Nats but not by much, more like 43 or 44 for me with 4 or 5 LDs and the rest Tories

Casino_Royale said:

Slight subtlety in the Tory plans on hospital parking. The BBC says it's for protected groups and night shift workers only.

Really is that it. What’s a protected group ?

The polling has also yet to take account of neutral gate

Andrew said:

wooliedyed said:

They cut 20k off Raabs majority but only get 14 seats??? Seems a little odd

Lots and lots of painfully close second places.

So they're only a popular leader away from a breakthrough?!

Also anyone who reports an MRP result without ranges should also be cock shot.

StuartDickson said:

Benpointer said:

Would just like to flag up 'Peak Tory Confidence' which occurred around late afternoon on Saturday 23rd November.

It's all downhill from here.

Peak Tory Confidence or Peak Tory Arrogance?

Depends if the results bear it out.

MarqueeMark said:

Black_Rook said:

BluerBlue said:

Black_Rook said:

BluerBlue said:

I've been deliberately avoiding all the political news today - are we good?

Possibly. Nobody really knows.

The polls must have been really awesome for you to say that.

Labour got up to 32% (+1) with ComRes. Labour surge watch continues. But yes, overall they weren't too bad. Doesn't mean that will remain the case though.

But you'd rather be in Boris's shoes than Corbyn's, with two and half weeks of campaigning left to go......

Of course. These things are all relative.

But there's still time for the robots to get marching. And remember 1992. Labour's reputation is so bad there could be meaningful numbers of Shy Labour voters this time.

But yours truly will never be satisfied. At least, not until we get to Friday 13th and the horror has been visited upon the Labour Party rather than the rest of us, hopefully. I'm too much of a pessimist and the stakes are too high.

kle4 said:

Oh what a shame
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198361226574778369

So we could get a Brexit Gvt but no Redwood, IDS, or Raab? It’s my Christmas wish list!

The MRP model is really bad for Labour.

Comfortable Tory majority but not enough for Corbyn to call it quits! He will still try to hang on with a result like that.

nico67 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Slight subtlety in the Tory plans on hospital parking. The BBC says it's for protected groups and night shift workers only.

Really is that it. What’s a protected group ?

See BBC website

A reminder of the danger of MRP without error bars

https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/1191352370917265408?s=19

StuartDickson said:

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198360629930790916?s=19

That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.

The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):

Con+31
Lab -49
LD +6
SNP +14
Plaid +1
- not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.

Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.

It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.

YouGov MRP did not do that well in Scotland. I presume failed to adjust for SNP polling overstatement.

I concur. And given the truly vast sample-size, most of the data is very stale.

I think Casino is about right on SNP Seats: low 40s, maybe even below 40, depending on how the SCon to SLD unwind pans out.

Thanks. Honest of you.

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

NOTE THIS IS NOT THE OFFICIAL YOUGOV MRP

Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.

Yes, I thought I detected some weaslery in Shippers words:

"Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election)" (my bold)

Interesting. They appear to have constituency-based data since they're opining about precise figures in individualk seats, so it's presumably done in cojunction with YouGov. But it seems extremely unlikely to be demographically balanced by constituency, doesn't it?

nunu2 said:

The MRP model is really bad for Labour.

Comfortable Tory majority but not enough for Corbyn to call it quits! He will still try to hang on with a result like that.

For 4.5 years? I doubt it.

Comres is probably the best poll for Labour because if you dig into the cross tabs . The Tories

Casino_Royale said:

wooliedyed said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1198360629930790916?s=19

That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.

The MRP gives:(compared with the last election, and ignoring defections in between):

Con+31
Lab -49
LD +6
SNP +14
Plaid +1
- not sure where the 3 extra seats come from there, but overall a clear picture. What would be helpful (and I imagine we'll get) is an indication of what happens if anyone goes up or down a few points - that will show how sensitive the model is to small changes overall.

Note that this is based on a LOT of YouGov data, so unlikely to be just the last couple of days. But the Tory lead has been pretty steady so it's likely to be broadly right.

It doesn't seem to give much hope to those thinking SCON will outperform.

The lack of Scotland polling is depressing. I think 49 is too high for the Nats but not by much, more like 43 or 44 for me with 4 or 5 LDs and the rest Tories

It's a different game north of the border.

MRP works well in modelling Tory or Labour seats, where demographics really drive it, but less so in an environment where unionist voters will swap votes amongst all three major parties to block the SNP.

The YouGov MRP in 2017 overestimated them too.

That’s a very good point . Also thanks for the other reply re the BBC.

Benpointer said:

nunu2 said:

The MRP model is really bad for Labour.

Comfortable Tory majority but not enough for Corbyn to call it quits! He will still try to hang on with a result like that.

For 4.5 years? I doubt it.

Corbyn will resign on 13.12.19 if Tory Maj.

Byronic said:

Whence this idea that Corbyn is improving his ratings? From Opinium?

The gold standard, IPSOS, still has him way way down in their latest poll, November 19. Just 4 days ago. Perhaps the debates really shifted things, but we have no authoritative evidence of that, yet.

From Deltapoll.

Alistair said:

I think this MRP will be too much dara over too long a time period. Lib Dems will be at pre squeeze strength.

YouGov asked for my information on Thursday/Friday night. I thought I had had the panel survey from them earlier in the week, but that turned out to be Ashcroft.

bigjohnowls said:

Benpointer said:

nunu2 said:

The MRP model is really bad for Labour.

Comfortable Tory majority but not enough for Corbyn to call it quits! He will still try to hang on with a result like that.

For 4.5 years? I doubt it.

Corbyn will resign on 13.12.19 if Tory Maj.

I suspect you are right.

I find it difficult to believe the LDs are only going to win 14 seats.

NickPalmer said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

NOTE THIS IS NOT THE OFFICIAL YOUGOV MRP

Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.

Yes, I thought I detected some weaslery in Shippers words:

"Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election)" (my bold)

Interesting. They appear to have constituency-based data since they're opining about precise figures in individualk seats, so it's presumably done in cojunction with YouGov. But it seems extremely unlikely to be demographically balanced by constituency, doesn't it?

Demographic data by constituency is available widely. It’s open data. The yougov survey correlates voting intention with their demographic data from their panel. Once you have the correlations you can apply them to the open data. Making a set of assumptions along the way, of course, which is the nub of the matter.

Benpointer said:

Black_Rook said:

Alistair said:

I think this MRP will be too much dara over too long a time period. Lib Dems will be at pre squeeze strength.

*IF* that's the case and you're implying that the model overstates the Lib Dems' strength then they could be in very serious trouble: back down below 10 seats?

I'd be very surprised - I've got them marked down for around 20 - but I think we've all been surprised by rather a lot of electoral outcomes in recent years...

The anecdotal data, including various constituency polls, seems to suggest the LD vote is heavily focused in seats they stand a chance in. If so, an overall 12-15% vote for them could deliver many more seats than UNS would predict.

This is what leaves me thinking that it's most likely that Johnson *just* squeaks a majority. If the Labour and Lib Dem vote is efficient as this suggests then the quirks of FPTP may leave Johnson raking in votes in leave areas for a large vote lead but with a minuscule majority. I'm beginning to rule out a hung parliament but I think a Tory landslide is wishful thinking and then some at present.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1198365856046239744

I am on Esther going LD at 6.

Esther McVey? I can't see it myself.