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Things unrepeatable in polite company.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?1 -
Depending on the caveats, it’s quite cheap, but very clever retail politics. Don’t promise a cash sum, promise a change people can picture.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?1 -
Yes but your neighbour has to have equal right to yours.Casino_Royale said:
Will Labour let me fuck my neighbour's wife too?dr_spyn said:Sunday People losing the plot.
https://twitter.com/thesundaypeople/status/11983503426411110410 -
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Their previous LD number looks an outlier.kle4 said:
Weird LD movement lately. I think if they can settle around 15 they would take it.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1198347409098711041
Deltapoll, Tories -2, still massive lead though0 -
No. But underestimating by more than 5 may now be needed. Not impossible, polling companies seem to have an impossible job and getting it 'right' seems to be pure chance, but does seem more implausible.Chris said:
Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.ozymandias said:
Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.Chris said:
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is just 18 days awayChris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again.
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Soon Corbyn can retire to his allotment and check every day under the rhubarb leaves for Chuka and The JewsPhilip_Thompson said:
Every couple of months? They do it every day . . . it is almost as common as antisemitic incidents.Floater said:
It will be the NHS and as they do it every couple of months no one listens anymore.squareroot2 said:How long before Labour comes out with its Socialist equivalent of Hague;s "Two weeks to save the pound"
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Indeed. And even if the relentless and evil machine is finally crushed, there's no guarantee that there won't be a sequel in which a new and even more vicious one comes to destroy us all. Oh the horror!Cookie said:
Me too Black Rook. Calling it for the Tories now is like thinking the Terminator is defeated when there's still fifteen minutes of the film left to run.Black_Rook said:
I'm an anti-Labourite rather than a Tory, but I'm certainly not complacent. I am *marginally* more confident now that the data appears to show the Labour has stalled, but I'm still very nervous. And probably will be until the result is known.Chris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!1 -
You can never be sure.Chris said:
Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.ozymandias said:
Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.Chris said:
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is just 18 days awayChris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again.
.1 -
Philip_Thompson said:
Every couple of months? They do it every day . . . it is almost as common as antisemitic incidents.Floater said:
It will be the NHS and as they do it every couple of months no one listens anymore.squareroot2 said:How long before Labour comes out with its Socialist equivalent of Hague;s "Two weeks to save the pound"
Be real - no way is it as common as anti semitic incidentsPhilip_Thompson said:
Every couple of months? They do it every day . . . it is almost as common as antisemitic incidents.Floater said:
It will be the NHS and as they do it every couple of months no one listens anymore.squareroot2 said:How long before Labour comes out with its Socialist equivalent of Hague;s "Two weeks to save the pound"
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Whatevs. The Tory lead doubles with just one point extra. My thesis is good. You’re just a pedant obsessed with maths and “getting the sums right”, like that matters. It’s just pathetic.peter_from_putney said:
That simply isn't so. Adopting Deltapoll's 13% lead for the Tories, as opposed to YouGov's 12% lead, you clearly haven't correctly completed the section loading support for the SNP in Scotland. Having done this myself, allowing them 42% of the vote North of the Border and also allocating 3% of the OK vote to the Greens, although they only win 1 seat, this results in the Tories winning 360 seats for an overall majority of 70 seats, way short of the 102 seat majority you wrongly claim.Byronic said:peter_from_putney said:After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.
Baxtering Deltapoll’s 13 lead gives a Tory majority of 102
Just shows how quickly a win becomes a landslide if the Tories have a double digit lead-1 -
Alternatively re-purpose his allotment for re-development into a Synagogue and Israeli Community centre.wooliedyed said:
Soon Corbyn can retire to his allotment and check every day under the rhubarb leaves for Chuka and The JewsPhilip_Thompson said:
Every couple of months? They do it every day . . . it is almost as common as antisemitic incidents.Floater said:
It will be the NHS and as they do it every couple of months no one listens anymore.squareroot2 said:How long before Labour comes out with its Socialist equivalent of Hague;s "Two weeks to save the pound"
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there is a severe straw shortage being created on here tonight as Corbynistas are buying up balefuls for clutching purposes.0
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Stan (Laurel) and one who is always Hard-y?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not the headlines but Boris canvassing with his Father that is good to seeCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?0 -
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?
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what?Flashy5 said:
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?
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13.5% for the 11 polls including Deltapoll!Sunil_Prasannan said:
13.5% for the 10 polls so far this week excluding Deltapoll (just seen that one!)Byronic said:The average Tory lead must be near 13, 14 now?
That’s huge.0 -
Is that MRP coming or...?0
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I don't seem to recall the hospital parking charges pledge being particularly contentious.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?
It was the total weight of spending, the preposterous claims about how it was to be paid for, the huge wave of needless nationalisations and the plans to confiscate property at will that didn't go down so well.0 -
It’s also going to make it bloody hard to park at hospitals for those who need to, rather than those with routine appointments who can catch the bus.Flashy5 said:
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?
(I walk, which I appreciate I am fortunate in being able to do)0 -
Unless your neighbour's a higher rate taxpayer, right?bigjohnowls said:
Yes but your neighbour has to have equal right to yours.Casino_Royale said:
Will Labour let me fuck my neighbour's wife too?dr_spyn said:Sunday People losing the plot.
https://twitter.com/thesundaypeople/status/11983503426411110410 -
As I keep saying, according to the polls the lead is about one point more than at this point last time.kle4 said:
No. But underestimating by more than 5 may now be needed.Chris said:
Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.ozymandias said:
Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.Chris said:
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is just 18 days awayChris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again.
.
But if you're taking comfort from that one point extra lead over Labour, you need to remember that at this point in 2017 the polls put the Tories about 37 points ahead of the Lib Dems, compared with only 26-27 points now.0 -
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Hmmmm....CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1198360577174835200
Boom boom shake the room!0 -
Interesting to see the detail on the hospital car parking charges policy. The RVI in Newcastle is right in the middle of the city and its car parks are constantly full, so much so that staff are not allowed to park there.
No charges and it will be used by shoppers or commuters and the problem will get worse.0 -
Yet more pollsCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1198360577174835200
Boom boom shake the room!
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So MRP is saying not a wipe out for Labour - but a modest Tory majority. What lead that does that imply?0
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Here it is.CorrectHorseBattery said:Is that MRP coming or...?
https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/11983606299307909160 -
That's terrible for the LDs and rather better than I'd thought for the SNP.2
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Yes it's nice to know that one member of the family hasn't disowned himBig_G_NorthWales said:
It is not the headlines but Boris canvassing with his Father that is good to seeCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?0 -
I thought more parliamentary scrutiny was a good thing?CorrectHorseBattery said: 0 -
Polls aside from Opinium settling on a low double figure lead of about 12%. Enough for a very tidy majority0
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Tories would be more than happy with that. A solid majority, enough to deliver Brexit, and see through 5 years. Bring it on.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
You mean the jews?Floater said:
You know they will blame ... a dark conspiracy by powerful shadowy figures .... you just know it.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1198356480891793408
tin foil hats party.0 -
Hmmm.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Carmarthen East, Ceredigion, Dwyfor, Arfon, Ynys Môn.
Not sure Plaid will get all five.0 -
I'm fairly sure this is similar to the first MRP prediction last time and it was all downhill from there?0
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Also isn't too big, keeping the activists on their toes.Byronic said:
Tories would be more than happy with that. A solid majority, enough to deliver Brexit, and see through 5 years. Bring it on.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Honestly, I don't understand how anyone used to win a big majority.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Labour are above 200 but going backwards it is bad but not disastrous, if they drop below 200 it's catastrophic, I'd suggest, 9 years into a tory led government.CorrectHorseBattery said:So MRP is saying not a wipe out for Labour - but a modest Tory majority. What lead that does that imply?
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To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.Flashy5 said:
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.0 -
Is this like the Best for Britain one, with second-hand YouGov data?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Lib Dems only on 14. That would be bad for them.0 -
Except Labour had been gaining for about a week by this point.CorrectHorseBattery said:I'm fairly sure this is similar to the first MRP prediction last time and it was all downhill from there?
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Correct - it’s a statist one size fits all policy that should be left to each hospital to figure out - not a dictat from No 10.Gallowgate said:Interesting to see the detail on the hospital car parking charges policy. The RVI in Newcastle is right in the middle of the city and its car parks are constantly full, so much so that staff are not allowed to park there.
No charges and it will be used by shoppers or commuters and the problem will get worse.0 -
Horrific for the Lib Dems.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
BTW, apparently it's not a YouGov model as per last time, it's just using YouGov data. Don't know how or if that impacts the result0
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This would be their joint worst result in terms of seats since World War II. If ‘not a wipeout’ is their new metric they are more fecked than a White House intern under Clinton.CorrectHorseBattery said:So MRP is saying not a wipe out for Labour - but a modest Tory majority. What lead that does that imply?
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Yes, that is a problem for Leicester Royal Infirmary. When it was free, commuters would park there then walk into town. Very busy for rugby and football matches as well.Gallowgate said:Interesting to see the detail on the hospital car parking charges policy. The RVI in Newcastle is right in the middle of the city and its car parks are constantly full, so much so that staff are not allowed to park there.
No charges and it will be used by shoppers or commuters and the problem will get worse.
Presumably parking will be free for staff too!0 -
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. SimpleFysics_Teacher said:
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.Flashy5 said:
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.1 -
I would be delightedByronic said:
Tories would be more than happy with that. A solid majority, enough to deliver Brexit, and see through 5 years. Bring it on.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
NOTE THIS IS NOT THE OFFICIAL YOUGOV MRP
Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.4 -
This just demonstrates Boris's teflon quality - he's politically invincible. Let's be honest, if Boris stood up tomorrow and promised free broadband for all it would be declared a masterstroke. Unfair perhaps, but Boris has earned this by outwitting the EU at every turn and securing the greatest Brexit deal imaginable.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?0 -
I have a slight fancy for Plaid winning Rhondda.ydoethur said:
Hmmm.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Carmarthen East, Ceredigion, Dwyfor, Arfon, Ynys Môn.
Not sure Plaid will get all five.0 -
for feck's sake... gimme the real MRP.TheScreamingEagles said:NOTE THIS IS NOT THE OFFICIAL YOUGOV MRP
Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.0 -
If that result is repeated, what percentage of the vote are Tories and Labour on? Surely a lot tighter than 19 points?0
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Boooooo.TheScreamingEagles said:NOTE THIS IS NOT THE OFFICIAL YOUGOV MRP
Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.0 -
I hope soFoxy said:
Yes, that is a problem for Leicester Royal Infirmary. When it was free, commuters would park there then walk into town. Very busy for rugby and football matches as well.Gallowgate said:Interesting to see the detail on the hospital car parking charges policy. The RVI in Newcastle is right in the middle of the city and its car parks are constantly full, so much so that staff are not allowed to park there.
No charges and it will be used by shoppers or commuters and the problem will get worse.
Presumably parking will be free for staff too!0 -
Your personal romantic fantasies are no concern of ours.Cookie said:
I have a slight fancy for Plaid winning Rhondda.ydoethur said:
Hmmm.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Carmarthen East, Ceredigion, Dwyfor, Arfon, Ynys Môn.
Not sure Plaid will get all five.0 -
Well if it's the YouGov numbers they are using, I suspect it's the same as the YouGov lead...CorrectHorseBattery said:If that result is repeated, what percentage of the vote are Tories and Labour on? Surely a lot tighter than 19 points?
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You keep comparing it to 2017. What was the Tory lead this far out from the 2015 election?Chris said:
As I keep saying, according to the polls the lead is about one point more than at this point last time.kle4 said:
No. But underestimating by more than 5 may now be needed.Chris said:
Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.ozymandias said:
Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.Chris said:
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is just 18 days awayChris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again.
.
But if you're taking comfort from that one point extra lead over Labour, you need to remember that at this point in 2017 the polls put the Tories about 37 points ahead of the Lib Dems, compared with only 26-27 points now.0 -
Who’s going to do that? How would they verify it? Where would it take place?Byronic said:
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. SimpleFysics_Teacher said:
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.Flashy5 said:
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Nothing is as simple as that.0 -
Ah I didn't realise it was that simple, thanksRobD said:
Well if it's the YouGov numbers they are using, I suspect it's the same as the YouGov lead...CorrectHorseBattery said:If that result is repeated, what percentage of the vote are Tories and Labour on? Surely a lot tighter than 19 points?
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Jon Trickett is quite possibly one of these idiotsFloater said:
You know they will blame ... a dark conspiracy by powerful shadowy figures .... you just know it.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1198356480891793408
tin foil hats party.0 -
Ah.TheScreamingEagles said:NOTE THIS IS NOT THE OFFICIAL YOUGOV MRP
Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.0 -
I’m now very confused ! Does this mean YouGov themselves won’t be doing their own , if they are why would they let someone else use their data ?TheScreamingEagles said:NOTE THIS IS NOT THE OFFICIAL YOUGOV MRP
Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.0 -
No. That will be Thornberry.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Corbyn or Johnson would be much sweeter, but also somewhat unlikely.0 -
If the lead is 10 points as per ComRes, I think Labour can do it - but if it's any higher they can't.0
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The supermarket near my parents has a number plate scanner on entry and exit, it automatically gives you a ticket if you stay longer than the 3h limit.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to do that? How would they verify it? Where would it take place?Byronic said:
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. SimpleFysics_Teacher said:
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.Flashy5 said:
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Nothing is as simple as that.0 -
Do what?CorrectHorseBattery said:If the lead is 10 points as per ComRes, I think Labour can do it - but if it's any higher they can't.
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Exactly: an obvious workaround.Byronic said:
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. SimpleFysics_Teacher said:
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.Flashy5 said:
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.0 -
Very close in fact to the Baxterised projection of YouGov's own poll this evening and also to the likes of Prof. Stephen Fisher and indeed the spread-betting markets.Casino_Royale said:0 -
Sounds about right to me, thoughI think a bit light on the LDs, who are pretty steadily polling at double 2017 figures.CorrectHorseBattery said:
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They cut 20k off Raabs majority but only get 14 seats??? Seems a little oddCorrectHorseBattery said:2 -
We've got the bizarre situation of the Tories going from NOM to mega-landslide while still losing seats. This is surely an exceptional occurrence.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
So the Tory manifesto is going to be boring, very very boring0
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But sane.CorrectHorseBattery said:So the Tory manifesto is going to be boring, very very boring
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Somehow I don't think you are the target audience.CorrectHorseBattery said:So the Tory manifesto is going to be boring, very very boring
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Have you really not been in car parks or shopping centres where they do this?Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to do that? How would they verify it? Where would it take place?Byronic said:
Surely they’d adopt a supermarket approach. If you go to the hospital and see someone you get a ticket docked. Which allows free parking. SimpleFysics_Teacher said:
To be fair, I wouldn’t want to walk three miles with an ingrowing toenail.Flashy5 said:
Daft and it’s daft from the Cons - oooh we are soooo green and Greta - but take your Range Rover 3 miles for a scan on your ingrowing toe nail and chug out those fumes with free parking.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?
Here the devil will be in the detail: my local hospital in in the town centre so parking charges help discourage people parking there and then going into town. There are some obvious workarounds, but I can see the policy making finding a space even worse.
Nothing is as simple as that.-1 -
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
That's not really relevant. I'm not trying to make a projection.Fysics_Teacher said:
You keep comparing it to 2017. What was the Tory lead this far out from the 2015 election?Chris said:
As I keep saying, according to the polls the lead is about one point more than at this point last time.kle4 said:
No. But underestimating by more than 5 may now be needed.Chris said:
Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.ozymandias said:
Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.Chris said:
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is just 18 days awayChris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again.
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But if you're taking comfort from that one point extra lead over Labour, you need to remember that at this point in 2017 the polls put the Tories about 37 points ahead of the Lib Dems, compared with only 26-27 points now.
I'm simply suggesting people shouldn't be confident that the same thing as 2017 won't happen again - because we are very close to the same situation, according to the polls. That doesn't imply they should be confident the same thing will happen again!1 -
It's probably less accurate in the Plaid and SNP contests.ydoethur said:
Hmmm.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Carmarthen East, Ceredigion, Dwyfor, Arfon, Ynys Môn.
Not sure Plaid will get all five.0 -
To what do you ascribe the sharp recovery in Corbyn's rating, then (admittedly just from "dreadful" to "bad")? I'm not wedded to the debate theory, but it's the obvious thing for a change during this week, no? It's not helped the party yet, though, so it's of marginal interest.squareroot2 said:
most people didn't watch the debate, nor do they give a flying fuck about the debate either. to ascribe changes in polling to a debate few watched is ludicrous IMHO.. WVM loathes Corbyn.. you heard it here ………….NickPalmer said:
I think it's simply a correction to the last poll, which had a weird LD dip. Corbyn's improved leader rating reflects the debate, where a substantial majority said he "did well", and he effectively tied the result - quite a lot of people thought "He's actually not that bad" but without rushing to vote Labour.0 -
Cause a Hung ParliamentRobD said:
Do what?CorrectHorseBattery said:If the lead is 10 points as per ComRes, I think Labour can do it - but if it's any higher they can't.
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That is pretty similar to my model, which awards the Tories 353 seats, Labour 205, Lib Dem 18, SNP 51, Green 1 and PC 4, for a majority of 62. Waiting for the next Survation though to update the results.Casino_Royale said:1 -
Majority of 48. That would be lovely.0
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Boring the better. No dementia tax foul upsCorrectHorseBattery said:So the Tory manifesto is going to be boring, very very boring
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YouGov will be doing their own version which should come out next week.nico67 said:
I’m now very confused ! Does this mean YouGov themselves won’t be doing their own , if they are why would they let someone else use their data ?TheScreamingEagles said:NOTE THIS IS NOT THE OFFICIAL YOUGOV MRP
Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.
YouGov do sell their data to other organisations so they can do their analysis/predictions.0 -
Well, I promise to go through it with a moderately fine toothcomb if anyone wants to skip it in that case.CorrectHorseBattery said:So the Tory manifesto is going to be boring, very very boring
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How can the Lib Dems be on only 14 seats in this model and within 3,000 votes of unseating Raab?CorrectHorseBattery said:
I would have thought that if they get that close to winning Raab's seat they would have to be into the high 20s at a minimum already.1 -
It voted Remain but wasn’t like a stonking majority . Perhaps the fact he’s a vile odious creep is having an impact but that’s not an impediment to people like Francois and the rest of the ERG nutjobs .kle4 said:
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?CorrectHorseBattery said:
I can’t see the Tories losing Esher , that would only have a chance if they were having a bad night and I just can’t see that happening .0 -
Will the Tories be costing their proposals this time?kle4 said:
Well, I promise to go through it with a moderately fine toothcomb if anyone wants to skip it in that case.CorrectHorseBattery said:So the Tory manifesto is going to be boring, very very boring
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Hardline Brexiteer in a very Remainy part of the world.kle4 said:
Why would Raab be so vulnerable? I mean, he's pretty bad but that's no barrier to people retaining stonking majorities, are there local factors at play?CorrectHorseBattery said:
He's a human dildo given the way he's embarrassed himself over the location of Dover and handling of the Harry Dunn incident. Threatening to bankrupt his parents is not a good look.0 -
If I had to guess I'd put the SNP at 43-44 seats in Scotland, not 49.0
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Had hoped to see Labour beaten down to sub-200 but that would do as a result.CorrectHorseBattery said:
48 is more than enough to see the Govt through to 2024. They could execute boundary reform, wait for the SNP to win in 2021 and legislate for Indyref2. Notional majority of maybe 75 going into the next election, or more like 125 if Scotland goes.
Meanwhile, Ladbrokes now rate a Tory majority at 2/5, Hung Parliament at 9/4. Con at 1/20 for most seats.
The Rook household is united in its loathing of Corbyn and is trying not to get too excited. We both still fear that it could all go disastrously wrong...0 -
I've been deliberately avoiding all the political news today - are we good? 0
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Thanks for that . Very much appreciated. The YouGov model did pretty well last time .TheScreamingEagles said:
YouGov will be doing their own version which should come out next week.nico67 said:
I’m now very confused ! Does this mean YouGov themselves won’t be doing their own , if they are why would they let someone else use their data ?TheScreamingEagles said:NOTE THIS IS NOT THE OFFICIAL YOUGOV MRP
Merely another organisation using YouGov data and applying their own methodology.
YouGov do sell their data to other organisations so they can do their analysis/predictions.0 -
Possibly. Nobody really knows.BluerBlue said:I've been deliberately avoiding all the political news today - are we good?
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