politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ready for President Chuck Grassley?
Comments
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Nah, clearly Minimum Recommended Price.NoSpaceName said:
Molotov-Ribbentrop Pactsquareroot2 said:
MRP.. Member of the Russian Parliament ?nunu2 said:
The point at which British Communists have to start calling black white, and white black.0 -
Cherie Blair used to do supermarket sweeps to help Tony get elected!Theuniondivvie said:
Were there any populist leaders of the past who paraded their mistress and their dug?kle4 said:
What a bizarre thing to do.Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn
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Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 30% (-)
LDEM: 16% (+5)
BREX: 3% (-3)
via @DeltapollUK
Chgs. w/ 16 Nov0 -
You are "wishful thinking" and I claim my £5CorrectHorseBattery said:If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
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Tbf, my mum was more taken by the dog than by the girlfriend. That and the fact that the Tory candidate has the same first name as my mum.kle4 said:
Jesus, how persuasive is Dilyn? Should he get a Cabinet post?Benpointer said:
Carrie and Dilyn knocked on my mum's door today in Hastings, canvassing for the Tory candidate. They seem to have persuaded my mum to vote Tory.Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Boris will, at tomorrows manifesto launch, intoduce Carrie and maybe even Dilyn
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Re. Opinium - thanks, and blimey!0
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Look at the image - that's a lot of movement in a week.squareroot2 said:
You are "wishful thinking" and I claim my £5CorrectHorseBattery said:If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
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For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.0
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So whatCorrectHorseBattery said:Johnson numbers down again, to -10, Corbyn -34 which is up, so 20 points between them but Corbyn is slightly trending up
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You are amazing. Either in denial or grabbing at strawsCorrectHorseBattery said:If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
Has any poll tonight seen an increase at all for labour0 -
That's what I noticed too.Andrew said:For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.
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LDs will be a bit cheered by that one.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 30% (-)
LDEM: 16% (+5)
BREX: 3% (-3)
via @DeltapollUK
Chgs. w/ 16 Nov0 -
Deltapoll
Con 43 down 2
Labour 30 nc
LD 16 +50 -
The Swinson Surge is on!Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 30% (-)
LDEM: 16% (+5)
BREX: 3% (-3)
via @DeltapollUK
Chgs. w/ 16 Nov2 -
So given the mass easing of Tory nerves, the MRP model will show a hung Parliament right?0
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Maximum Retail Price shirley?TimT said:
Nah, clearly Minimum Recommended Price.NoSpaceName said:
Molotov-Ribbentrop Pactsquareroot2 said:
MRP.. Member of the Russian Parliament ?nunu2 said:
The point at which British Communists have to start calling black white, and white black.0 -
The average Tory lead must be near 13, 14 now?
That’s huge.0 -
Donald Trump
Chuka Umunna
Ed Milliband
Donald TrumpBlack_Rook said:
The Marxist blame list:rottenborough said:
And the BBC. Don't forget the role of the BBC in stopping Jezza winning power.Flashy5 said:
They will pin it all on Jez and Brexit and carry on with the Marxism.wooliedyed said:If labour do end up in the 160 to 180 range surely they are going to absolutely rip themselves apart over it? The left wont accept any move away from Corbynism and the cooper bennites will refuse to go on with it.
***NOT US!***
The Jews
The BBC
The Liberal Democrats
Nicola Sturgeon
The Jews
The Jews
Tories
Racist Tories
Fascist Racist Tories
Cheating Tories (dropping the Dementia Tax, the bastards!)
Rachel Riley (a Tory Jew)
Tory Jews
Jewish Tories
Rupert Murdoch
Thick Brexity Old People
MI5
ABSOLUTELY DEFINITELY NOT ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR JEREMY.
The Jews
The Jews
The Weather
Profiteering American Social Media Billionaires
(and Broadband Providers)
Billionaire Tory Donors
The Banks
Jewish Banks
The Jews
The Jews
Biased MSM
The Jewish Chronicle
Maureen Lipman (a Tory Jew)
The Jews
The Jews
Mossad Agents
Splitters!
AND NOT JOHN EITHER. OR DIANE. OR SEUMAS. OR LEN.
The Jews
Racist Northerners
Nigel Farage (a Tory racist)
The Jews
The Jews
The Queen (a thick Brexity old person, and probably Jewish)
The International Jewish Capitalist Conspiracy
Ignorant English Nationalist Racist Voter Scum
and
THE JEWS!
Have I missed anyone out?
Chuka Umunna
Ed Milliband and the Jewish labour MPs
Labour Friends of Israel
Jewish labour movement0 -
Given the leadership figures, I wouldn't be surprised if it was 50ish majority.Time_to_Leave said:So given the mass easing of Tory nerves, the MRP model will show a hung Parliament right?
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The fear of Corbyn is frightening the Tory Remainers back home . Labour need to get the body bags ready. GE nights gonna be a bloodbath. All because of the cowardice of moderate labour MPs to stand up to the Marxist Cabal that’s taken over their party.0
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Has Swinson managed to improve hers at all?Andrew said:For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.
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Labour is more popular than Corbyn.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's what I noticed too.Andrew said:For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.
The Tories are less popular than Johnson.
Therefore, Corbyn is only becoming more popular among people already committed to labour, and Johnson is losing support among those who never intended to vote Tory anyway.0 -
Historically the leadership splits have been a better indicator than headline VI.CorrectHorseBattery said:If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
Evidence of Shy Labour voters?
(gulps...)1 -
The crucial thing in this poll, as in all the others, is the inert state of labour polling. They aren’t going anywhere. They might even be slipping. And they’ve thrown their biggest rocks.Benpointer said:
LDs will be a bit cheered by that one.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 30% (-)
LDEM: 16% (+5)
BREX: 3% (-3)
via @DeltapollUK
Chgs. w/ 16 Nov0 -
The 58 billion is there in the grey book under the contingency .
It’s under sub header OMFG we’re fucked section , emergency code red bribe .
I’m a Labour voter but it’s not great if this is my response !2 -
Dreamworld.. its all within usual polling perameters. I suggest you go and have a chat with White Van Man and see what WVM thinks of Corbyn... and then put your ear mufflers on.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Look at the image - that's a lot of movement in a week.squareroot2 said:
You are "wishful thinking" and I claim my £5CorrectHorseBattery said:If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
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Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.0
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Do we have fieldwork dates for Opinium and Deltapoll?0
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I hope you're right.ydoethur said:
Labour is more popular than Corbyn.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's what I noticed too.Andrew said:For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.
The Tories are less popular than Johnson.
Therefore, Corbyn is only becoming more popular among people already committed to labour, and Johnson is losing support among those who never intended to vote Tory anyway.0 -
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You reminded me of that scene in Life of Brian with your last sentence.Byronic said:
The crucial thing in this poll, as in all the others, is the inert state of labour polling. They aren’t going anywhere. They might even be slipping. And they’ve thrown their biggest rocks.Benpointer said:
LDs will be a bit cheered by that one.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 30% (-)
LDEM: 16% (+5)
BREX: 3% (-3)
via @DeltapollUK
Chgs. w/ 16 Nov
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If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is TrumpFysics_Teacher said:Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
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I suppose the other remaining known unknown in the campaign is the visit of Trump for the NATO summit. He's going to want to pre-emptively claim credit for Johnson's big victory. There's potential for that to play badly for Johnson.
Edit: I see the Spectator / @Fysics_Teacher are ahead of me on this point.0 -
Indeed. It looks for patterns in voting behaviour by correlation with other data such as demographic (“multi-level regression” = MR) and then applies by extrapolation the correlations to demographic data for every constituency (“post-stratification” = P).BigRich said:
I think MRP is Multilateral Regressive Projection, or something like that and it attempts to caculate not just how many of one party have moved to another, but what type, e.g. age, income, and so on, In theory much better predicter than Uniform National Swing, but also quite hard to do unless you have a big load of data that can be crunched, and as such it will have a subjective element.squareroot2 said:
MRP.. Member of the Russian Parliament ?nunu2 said:0 -
A quick primer before the MRP lands.
https://medium.com/@theintersectuk/mrp-estimates-and-the-2019-general-election-9ac1794120d60 -
It depends on how it goes. If Corbyn becomes more popular than Johnson that will surely impact the polling. But right now this just seems to be noise coming back into alignment with party ratings.Black_Rook said:
I hope you're right.ydoethur said:
Labour is more popular than Corbyn.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's what I noticed too.Andrew said:For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.
The Tories are less popular than Johnson.
Therefore, Corbyn is only becoming more popular among people already committed to labour, and Johnson is losing support among those who never intended to vote Tory anyway.2 -
No. This is Corbyn's own insanitydr_spyn said:Sunday People losing the plot.
https://twitter.com/thesundaypeople/status/11983503426411110410 -
The former might be doing worse, and the latter better, on a personal level, but perhaps what they are offering is still appealing or not appealing to people separate to that.CorrectHorseBattery said:If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
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Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is TrumpFysics_Teacher said:Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
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How long before Labour comes out with its Socialist equivalent of Hague;s "Two weeks to save the pound"0
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Apparently Labour have got hold of the Russian dossier .Fysics_Teacher said:Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
Trump either says the NHS is up for sale or they dish the dirt !
Seriously though I’d be a little nervous if I was Bozo because Trump is deeply unpopular in the UK . You never know what he’s going to come out with.
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Not impossible: big win this time, Labour stays left, narrow win in 2024, God knows what politics will look like in 2029 (gene editing on the NHS, and Britain desperately asking for Russia's codes to shut down the EU pirate robots?).0
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peter_from_putney said:
After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.
Baxtering Deltapoll’s 13 lead gives a Tory majority of 102
Just shows how quickly a win becomes a landslide if the Tories have a double digit lead
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Last time though, this slow trend in Corbyn's numbers going up (and recall the gap was much wider last time), went somewhat unnoticed but at the end they ended up being tied, which almost predicted the Hung Parliament result in a way.kle4 said:
The former might be doing worse, and the latter better, on a personal level, but perhaps what they are offering is still appealing or not appealing to people separate to that.CorrectHorseBattery said:If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
I wonder if this is the change we will see now, or whether it's just noise. I'll stick with the noise for now.0 -
Black_Rook said:
Historically the leadership splits have been a better indicator than headline VI.
Evidence of Shy Labour voters?
(gulps...)
Totally confused here tbh :-) The Oppy leadership numbers are consistent with approx. an 8% gap between the parties, not 19%.
Could do with an Ipsos about now - they're the ones with the historical record on accurate leadership figures.
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Or 'Tomorrow Belongs to Me?'squareroot2 said:How long before Labour comes out with its Socialist equivalent of Hague;s "Two weeks to save the pound"
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Perhaps you two should get a room.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's what I noticed too.Andrew said:For all the big headline leads, the leadership approval ratings seem to be narrowing.
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Well even last time there was what, 1 poll which had Labour in front, and very few which had them within 2, as ended up being the result? So there may have been some of that last time and could well be again - but if the average lead is larger (and we are at the crossover point on that), they need to be realllly shy to make a difference.Black_Rook said:
Historically the leadership splits have been a better indicator than headline VI.CorrectHorseBattery said:If Johnson's numbers continue to go down and Corbyn's continue to go up, I just am more confused that Labour is stuck
Evidence of Shy Labour voters?
(gulps...)1 -
13.5% for the 10 polls so far this week excluding Deltapoll (just seen that one!)Byronic said:The average Tory lead must be near 13, 14 now?
That’s huge.0 -
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!1 -
Updated with guestimated fieldwork dates for a couple of the polls (just assumed it was seven days after their last weekly poll)
https://imgur.com/Ghj9bQY1 -
Americans don’t give two hoots for what a UK PM thinks or says. In the UK I’m sure Trump will be told what to say but whether he stays on script is another matter .Time_to_Leave said:
Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is TrumpFysics_Teacher said:Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
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Any chance Boris will think he’s Hugh Grant’s PM from Love Actually?nico67 said:
Apparently Labour have got hold of the Russian dossier .Fysics_Teacher said:Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
Trump either says the NHS is up for sale or they dish the dirt !
Seriously though I’d be a little nervous if I was Bozo because Trump is deeply unpopular in the UK . You never know what he’s going to come out with.0 -
I think it's simply a correction to the last poll, which had a weird LD dip. Corbyn's improved leader rating reflects the debate, where a substantial majority said he "did well", and he effectively tied the result - quite a lot of people thought "He's actually not that bad" but without rushing to vote Labour.kle4 said:
Weird LD movement lately. I think if they can settle around 15 they would take it.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1198347409098711041
Deltapoll, Tories -2, still massive lead though0 -
'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'dr_spyn said:"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats0 -
It is just 18 days awayChris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!0 -
In that seat, that's okay because people are moving the "right" way in that case. I reckon Chuka has a decent chance of taking itHYUFD said:
'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'dr_spyn said:"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats0 -
Thanks for doing this!RobD said:Updated with guestimated fieldwork dates for a couple of the polls (just assumed it was seven days after their last weekly poll)
https://imgur.com/Ghj9bQY
Without counting chickens there can be no doubt about black line crossover anymore. The 'ah but 2017' line doesn't work anymore, even with momentum being the wrong way Labour would need to do MUCH better than they did from this stage in 2017 to claw back the difference in order to lose like they did in 2017 again.
Interestingly Britainelects was doing a tracker too but sans black line early on which lots of lefties kept sharing, I've not seen it since. Anything happen with that?0 -
most people didn't watch the debate, nor do they give a flying fuck about the debate either. to ascribe changes in polling to a debate few watched is ludicrous IMHO.. WVM loathes Corbyn.. you heard it here ………….NickPalmer said:
I think it's simply a correction to the last poll, which had a weird LD dip. Corbyn's improved leader rating reflects the debate, where a substantial majority said he "did well", and he effectively tied the result - quite a lot of people thought "He's actually not that bad" but without rushing to vote Labour.kle4 said:
Weird LD movement lately. I think if they can settle around 15 they would take it.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1198347409098711041
Deltapoll, Tories -2, still massive lead though1 -
Is another hole being dug by Corbyn's acolytes?
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/11983537178898309130 -
One possible explanation - Leave voters really do see this as a Brexit election. They might not like Johnson, but they will use him to get what they want - Brexit.Andrew said:
Totally confused here tbh :-) The Oppy leadership numbers are consistent with approx. an 8% gap between the parties, not 19%.Black_Rook said:
Historically the leadership splits have been a better indicator than headline VI.
Evidence of Shy Labour voters?
(gulps...)
Could do with an Ipsos about now - they're the ones with the historical record on accurate leadership figures.
It could be that, once Brexit happens, public support for Johnson/Tories could evaporate. They won't worry about that too much when they have 52 months with a massive majority, but there could be moresurprisingwild opinion poll swings in the next Parliament than there were in this one.0 -
There are other types of favour Boris could offer.nico67 said:
Americans don’t give two hoots for what a UK PM thinks or says. In the UK I’m sure Trump will be told what to say but whether he stays on script is another matter .Time_to_Leave said:
Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is TrumpFysics_Teacher said:Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
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Will Labour let me fuck my neighbour's wife too?dr_spyn said:Sunday People losing the plot.
https://twitter.com/thesundaypeople/status/11983503426411110410 -
Well absolutely no sign of any increase in support for Labour with tonight's polls...
Next potential game changer is the Con manifesto tomorrow...0 -
2017 hasn't been repeated.Chris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
If there is a comeback from Corbyn now it would not be 2017 redux it would be even stranger than that.1 -
OT: you’re an xkcd fan, aren’t you?CorrectHorseBattery said:
In that seat, that's okay because people are moving the "right" way in that case. I reckon Chuka has a decent chance of taking itHYUFD said:
'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'dr_spyn said:"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
https://xkcd.com/936/0 -
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is just 18 days awayChris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!0 -
I'm an anti-Labourite rather than a Tory, but I'm certainly not complacent. I am *marginally* more confident now that the data appears to show the Labour has stalled, but I'm still very nervous. And probably will be until the result is known.Chris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!1 -
I think it impossible for Trump to stay on script, and in any case someone with a microphone and a camera will at some point ask him about what he thinks, and I think he would not be able to stay silent.nico67 said:
Americans don’t give two hoots for what a UK PM thinks or says. In the UK I’m sure Trump will be told what to say but whether he stays on script is another matter .Time_to_Leave said:
Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is TrumpFysics_Teacher said:Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
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Ah, so the entire anti Jewish smear against Labour, claiming Labour hates Jews, was just a dastardly plot by horrible Jews!dr_spyn said:Is another hole being dug by Corbyn's acolytes?
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1198353717889830913
Why did she delete that? Perfectly fine. Not going to cause any fuss at all.
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It's not Labour you have to worry about, I think your wife is the one who controls the 'will' in that scenario.Casino_Royale said:
Will Labour let me fuck my neighbour's wife too?dr_spyn said:Sunday People losing the plot.
https://twitter.com/thesundaypeople/status/11983503426411110410 -
You're the second person to noticeFysics_Teacher said:
OT: you’re an xkcd fan, aren’t you?CorrectHorseBattery said:
In that seat, that's okay because people are moving the "right" way in that case. I reckon Chuka has a decent chance of taking itHYUFD said:
'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'dr_spyn said:"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
https://xkcd.com/936/
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Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.Chris said:
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is just 18 days awayChris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!0 -
I think the bible says God is against you coveting your neighbour's ass, so it will take more than a government edict.1
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Or his ox, or his maidservant.TheScreamingEagles said:I think the bible says God is against you coveting your neighbour's ass, so it will take more than a government edict.
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*Puts hand up* I noticed too! Your handle pleased me immensely.CorrectHorseBattery said:
You're the second person to noticeFysics_Teacher said:
OT: you’re an xkcd fan, aren’t you?CorrectHorseBattery said:
In that seat, that's okay because people are moving the "right" way in that case. I reckon Chuka has a decent chance of taking itHYUFD said:
'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'dr_spyn said:"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
https://xkcd.com/936/0 -
Yes and if you get her preggers she can have it aborted the day before due date.Casino_Royale said:
Will Labour let me fuck my neighbour's wife too?dr_spyn said:Sunday People losing the plot.
https://twitter.com/thesundaypeople/status/1198350342641111041
Soft on slipping the neighbour one, soft on the outcome of slipping the neighbour one1 -
number of hours since last anti semitic incident.......dr_spyn said:Is another hole being dug by Corbyn's acolytes?
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/11983537178898309130 -
I do think that kind of headline backfires. People just don't buy it and it plays into an 'establisment is against us' narrative.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Why did you buy a counter with an hour on it? Minutes would have sufficed.Floater said:
number of hours since last anti semitic incident.......dr_spyn said:Is another hole being dug by Corbyn's acolytes?
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/11983537178898309130 -
Me too Black Rook. Calling it for the Tories now is like thinking the Terminator is defeated when there's still fifteen minutes of the film left to run.Black_Rook said:
I'm an anti-Labourite rather than a Tory, but I'm certainly not complacent. I am *marginally* more confident now that the data appears to show the Labour has stalled, but I'm still very nervous. And probably will be until the result is known.Chris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!0 -
Ask YouGov's poll came out at c2pm ,it was hardly back to earthByronic said:peter_from_putney said:After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.
Baxtering Deltapoll’s 13 lead gives a Tory majority of 102
Just shows how quickly a win becomes a landslide if the Tories have a double digit lead0 -
It's interesting that the sample claims to have voted Tory over Labour by 46%-36% in 2017. That could partly be genuinely false recall in line with their current preference, or it could be something to do with why it is an outlier.Chris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!0 -
Disagree. The electorate already believe Corbyn is a threat.kle4 said:
I do think that kind of headline backfires. People just don't buy it and it plays into an 'establisment is against us' narrative.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It will be the NHS and as they do it every couple of months no one listens anymore.squareroot2 said:How long before Labour comes out with its Socialist equivalent of Hague;s "Two weeks to save the pound"
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That simply isn't so. Adopting Deltapoll's 13% lead for the Tories, as opposed to YouGov's 12% lead, you clearly haven't correctly completed the section loading support for the SNP in Scotland. Having done this myself, allowing them 42% of the vote North of the Border and also allocating 3% of the OK vote to the Greens, although they only win 1 seat, this results in the Tories winning 360 seats for an overall majority of 70 seats, way short of the 102 seat majority you wrongly claim.Byronic said:peter_from_putney said:After the Tories' euphoria over this evening's Opinium 19% lead for them, it's back to earth with YouGov who report an unchanged 12% lead for the Blue team, indicating a far more modest majority of just 36 seats. It wouldn't take much of a late swing to eliminate that. It's not all over yet, not by any means.
Baxtering Deltapoll’s 13 lead gives a Tory majority of 102
Just shows how quickly a win becomes a landslide if the Tories have a double digit lead1 -
"Well, I would vote for you but I still really don't like that Jeremy Corbyn bloke."wooliedyed said:
Yes and if you get her preggers she can have it aborted the day before due date.Casino_Royale said:
Will Labour let me fuck my neighbour's wife too?dr_spyn said:Sunday People losing the plot.
https://twitter.com/thesundaypeople/status/1198350342641111041
Soft on slipping the neighbour one, soft on the outcome of slipping the neighbour one0 -
Enough detail ! LolTime_to_Leave said:
There are other types of favour Boris could offer.nico67 said:
Americans don’t give two hoots for what a UK PM thinks or says. In the UK I’m sure Trump will be told what to say but whether he stays on script is another matter .Time_to_Leave said:
Alternatively Boris gets to say “the NHS will not be part of any trade deal” on camera, with Trump; and he accepts it. Boris then delivers a favour come the US election.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If there is anyone who can fuck things up, it is TrumpFysics_Teacher said:Just listening to a Spectator podcast which points out one remaining bear trap for the Tories: the Trump visit in the weak before polling.
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You'll make me blush!Cookie said:
*Puts hand up* I noticed too! Your handle pleased me immensely.CorrectHorseBattery said:
You're the second person to noticeFysics_Teacher said:
OT: you’re an xkcd fan, aren’t you?CorrectHorseBattery said:
In that seat, that's okay because people are moving the "right" way in that case. I reckon Chuka has a decent chance of taking itHYUFD said:
'Asked how they would vote if Labour had no chance of winning locally, 57% of Labour supporters say they would switch to the Lib Dems, and only 9% to the Tories. But if Lib Dem supporters thought they had no chance of victory, just 37% would switch to Labour, while 16% would vote Tory.'dr_spyn said:"In the Cities of London and Westminster, Chuka Umunna could become the first non-Conservative MP for the area since 1874. The former Labour MP, now fighting the seat as a Liberal Democrat, is currently six points behind Nickie Aiken, the Conservative candidate. But Deltapoll’s figures show that tactical voting by Labour party supporters could give Umunna victory."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
I'm not fully convinced that Labour voters would be happy to vote for a Lib Dem who was still a Labour MP in February 2019.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats
https://xkcd.com/936/0 -
Really, it's irrelevant how exactly you count the days.ozymandias said:
Poll day no campaigning. It’s 18.Chris said:
It's 19 days - two days short of three weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is just 18 days awayChris said:
On any objective view, of course it is an outlier.squareroot2 said:
the outlierSunil_Prasannan said:Sorry which was the poll with a 19 point lead? I seem to have missed it
In the last 9 polls shown by Britain Elects, the leads were 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 16, 18 and 19. The median is 12 - in other words, about one point higher than the lead at this time during the 2017 campaign.
What I find remarkable is the confidence among Tories that 2017 isn't going to be repeated, despite the fact that the lead in the polls is so similar.
Particularly as the main difference in the polls is that the Lib Dems are currently 7-8 points higher than they were in 2017. In other words, there is a bigger reservoir of potential anti-Tory tactical votes.
Of course, none of us knows what it going to happen over the next three weeks. What surprises me is that so many people seem to think they do know!
The point is that the lead is only about one point more than at the same stage in 2017. Such changes as there were in the polls took place over about the last fortnight then, and they amounted to perhaps just one point decrease in the Tory rating, and perhaps two points increase in Labour's.
But what really made the difference was that the final polls were systematically overestimating the lead by about 5 points. My question is whether people can be sure that's not happening again.
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Interesting tidbit from the MORI this week, 3 people named the BNP! They are only standing in one seat. Makes them 50% more popular than Soubry's Change who had 2 people speak up for them0
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You know they will blame ... a dark conspiracy by powerful shadowy figures .... you just know it.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1198356480891793408
tin foil hats party.0 -
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?0 -
Every couple of months? They do it every day . . . it is almost as common as antisemitic incidents.Floater said:
It will be the NHS and as they do it every couple of months no one listens anymore.squareroot2 said:How long before Labour comes out with its Socialist equivalent of Hague;s "Two weeks to save the pound"
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Someone has probably already posted this but just in case they haven't;
https://t.co/qj43WI8S4N?amp=10 -
It is not the headlines but Boris canvassing with his Father that is good to seeCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1198357430293405698
What was this called when Labour proposed it?0
