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Are the Tories absolutely sure they need to have a manifesto? At this stage it seems to only have downside risk.....5
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Thank you useful Libdems. You've helped the tories.wooliedyed said:Constituency polls are London again, Chuka within 6 but LDs a mile behind in Chelsea and in Hendon (3rd place)
Again.0 -
As I said last week, those were the two potential game changers for Labour. It seems they haven’t worked, so now they need some kind of miracle. They’re four nil down with half an hour to play. And their demented goalkeeper is shouting at a nice Jewish family in the stands, and not watching the game.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Exactly. Curtains.nunu2 said:
If Labour couldn't make a dent after their manifesto and the debate then when?geoffw said:
but . .CorrectHorseBattery said:
"The results suggest that the first week of televised debates between the party leaders has not made an immediate impact on the race."
move on please, nothing to see here.
Another of my predictions is maybe coming true. Labours manifesto is so scary and Marxist, it’s driving middle class Remainer switchers back to the Tories. So the LDs suffer.0 -
Previous thread, 8.35 am:
"Con 47: Lab 26: LD 11 is a possible outcome. That would be a mega tsunami for Boris."
Ahem. Buffs nails...0 -
Thanks Gin. Why am I still nervousGIN1138 said:
Here you go BigGBig_G_NorthWales said:
19 point lead. Is that a real poll and not fake news ?GIN1138 said:Opinium!!!!!!
And when was it done
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer0 -
Mr. Leave, I was just thinking that.0
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So, the voters won't be bought with the Marxist's Funny Money (ie, their own!)0
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Peaking just as postal votes are returned is entirely what Tories would hope for.geoffw said:Tories peak too soon. All is lost.
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I've actually started seeing the latter in action. I've put a smallish sum on us to take Hampstead and Kilburn for this reason. I think our vote will go up by a couple of thousand as Tory remainers come back in from the cold and the Labour remainers will vote Lib Dem after Jez saying he will stay neutral.Byronic said:
As I said last week, those were the two potential game changers for Labour. It seems they haven’t worked, so now they need some kind of miracle. They’re four nil down with half an hour to play. And their demented goalkeeper is shouting at a nice Jewish family I’m the stands, and not watching the game.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Exactly. Curtains.nunu2 said:
If Labour couldn't make a dent after their manifesto and the debate then when?geoffw said:
but . .CorrectHorseBattery said:
"The results suggest that the first week of televised debates between the party leaders has not made an immediate impact on the race."
move on please, nothing to see here.
I think another of my predictions is coming true. Labours manifesto is so scary and Marxist, it’s driving middle class Remainer switchers back to the Tories. So the LDs suffer.0 -
Indeed. I don't mind that they have become so partisan at this election, plenty of right wing papers on the other side. But it's when they pretend to be impartial that it's funny as in this case, when their bias couldn't be suppressed.MaxPB said:
Well not the effect they wanted!TOPPING said:I like the way the Graun says the 19-pt gap shows the debates didn't have an effect. Er, I think it shows they had a very substantial effect!!!
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Because the alternative to Boris is so scary.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Gin. Why am I still nervousGIN1138 said:
Here you go BigGBig_G_NorthWales said:
19 point lead. Is that a real poll and not fake news ?GIN1138 said:Opinium!!!!!!
And when was it done
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer0 -
No, the objection is well founded. 47% is clearly an outlier, even when compared with the run of positive polls for the Conservatives.nunu2 said:
Head. In. Sand.CorrectHorseBattery said:19 points, I just refuse to believe that will the final result. 47% of the vote, no way, sorry.
Looking at the figures from an historical perspective, the last time a party polled that well in a General Election was when Labour got 48% of the popular vote under Harold Wilson in 1966 - and that, of course, was when there were only three parties of any consequence contesting the election.
Even if there is a landslide at the end of all this, the Tory vote share is not going to be anything like that spectacular.1 -
How on earth can you be nervous . Unless Bozo shoots someone at the manifesto launch then I really can’t see anything changing .Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Gin. Why am I still nervousGIN1138 said:
Here you go BigGBig_G_NorthWales said:
19 point lead. Is that a real poll and not fake news ?GIN1138 said:Opinium!!!!!!
And when was it done
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer0 -
It does rely on Liverpool cocking it up, or getting injuries.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxy, already backed (little bit longer, on Ladbrokes a few days ago).
Hope Chelsea can beat Manchester City.
Edited extra bit: I think some are getting carried away with a single poll three weeks before the vote.
Perhaps we should field Hamza Choudhury on Boxing Day to man mark Salah again...
Man City back ahead again, but looking fragile at the back. They are going to drop points over the season.
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Tories still 1.06 to win most seats.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1321176950 -
SWR? London? [sucks teeth]. Daym, dude, hard run. Major symps.CorrectHorseBattery said:If my train ticket was £100 and it was late, I wouldn't care so much. But I pay nearly £500 a month and it's been on time twice.
(if it helps, I pay slightly less than that. Last week was the first in five weeks I didn't have to fill out a DelayRepay claim. I hate trains)
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I did say that what I had been hearing was that WVM was anti Corbyn, and indeed it looks like WVM is.. The same goes for that guy on Question Time. He was wrong about the 5% but it doesn't matter that he was wrong, he thinks Labour are going to screw him (and they will), and others will think the same even if they won't be.
Inheritance tax is the same thing, people hate inheritance tax on principle, even if they never will pay any (or receive from an estate that has to pay it)0 -
Tories in to 1.5 majority on Betfair0
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I was once on a train that arrived 12 hours late. It was between Istanbul and Athens though, so I suppose I should be grateful it ran at all. At one point the driver got out to pick some fruit - without slowing down the train (he didn’t need to).initforthemoney said:
being 16 minutes late and all of the above? being cancelled so the next one is even more overcrowded? being charged 5p more for the same level of service? a smell of urine or vomit? lots of dogs? headphones that bleed? self-important people talking loudly on phones about how they are 16 minutes late?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Can you explain what could be worse for my train than being 15 minutes late, overcrowded (with a lot of people standing), dirty (I had what looked like a shit stain on my seat the other day) and with faulty doors that don't open?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Believe me it can and was under BRCorrectHorseBattery said:
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.DeClare said:
They must be too young to remember the filthy dirty delayed 'services' that the British Railways Board used to operate between 1948-1994 what a nightmare!eristdoof said:
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.rural_voter said:
How have the Swiss railways apparently managed to do better than us over a really long period?Novo said:Those advocating nationalisation of the railways clearly cannot remember how bad British Rail was. Grossly unreliable and inefficient and prone to UK wide strikes paralysing the entire network.
100% elec trains
No Beeching closures
Lower subsidy
Affordable fares (unlike a £150-200 return London-Manchester)
Extreme punctuality.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.0 -
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Maybe 2017 lives too much in the memorynico67 said:
How on earth can you be nervous . Unless Bozo shoots someone at the manifesto launch then I really can’t see anything changing .Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Gin. Why am I still nervousGIN1138 said:
Here you go BigGBig_G_NorthWales said:
19 point lead. Is that a real poll and not fake news ?GIN1138 said:Opinium!!!!!!
And when was it done
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer0 -
The only reason E.S.B won the race was because Devon Loch fell (or jumped down rather).brokenwheel said:
The only reason why there's a change from the last poll is adjusting for TBP standing down.TOPPING said:I like the way the Graun says the 19-pt gap shows the debates didn't have an effect. Er, I think it shows they had a very substantial effect!!!
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Some of the polling may have taken place before the debate and manifesto.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Exactly. Curtains.nunu2 said:
If Labour couldn't make a dent after their manifesto and the debate then when?geoffw said:
but . .CorrectHorseBattery said:
"The results suggest that the first week of televised debates between the party leaders has not made an immediate impact on the race."
move on please, nothing to see here.0 -
I suspect the remaining Labour vote there is of the "Fuck off and die, Chuka, you Tory bastard" variety.Artist said:I'm assuming Chuka could squeeze some Labour votes if he's a clear 2nd. Surprised the Lib Dems are so far behind in Chelsea and Fulham. Hendon was always Tories versus Labour.
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Their manifesto should consist of a picture of Boris and two words, "not Corbyn".Time_to_Leave said:Are the Tories absolutely sure they need to have a manifesto? At this stage it seems to only have downside risk.....
It would be top trolling and would probably see them over the line...0 -
Dr. Foxy, they'll likely have a wobbly spot sooner or later, one would think.0
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I don't think the Lab manifesto made as much of an impression as last time. Two reasons:
1) No novelty factor. Most of it was similar to last time.
2) The media focussed on the total spending plans, rather than the individual goodies.
"Lab will spend £83bn more" doesn't win as many votes as "Lab will scrap tuition fees / increase benefits / give you a pay rise etc"0 -
Being 14 minutes late so you can't claim Delay Repayinitforthemoney said:
being 16 minutes late and all of the above? being cancelled so the next one is even more overcrowded? being charged 5p more for the same level of service? a smell of urine or vomit? lots of dogs? headphones that bleed? self-important people talking loudly on phones about how they are 16 minutes late?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Can you explain what could be worse for my train than being 15 minutes late, overcrowded (with a lot of people standing), dirty (I had what looked like a shit stain on my seat the other day) and with faulty doors that don't open?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Believe me it can and was under BRCorrectHorseBattery said:
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.DeClare said:
They must be too young to remember the filthy dirty delayed 'services' that the British Railways Board used to operate between 1948-1994 what a nightmare!eristdoof said:
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.rural_voter said:
How have the Swiss railways apparently managed to do better than us over a really long period?Novo said:Those advocating nationalisation of the railways clearly cannot remember how bad British Rail was. Grossly unreliable and inefficient and prone to UK wide strikes paralysing the entire network.
100% elec trains
No Beeching closures
Lower subsidy
Affordable fares (unlike a £150-200 return London-Manchester)
Extreme punctuality.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.1 -
Which might make the lead even bigger...Andy_JS said:
Some of the polling may have taken place before the debate and manifesto.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Exactly. Curtains.nunu2 said:
If Labour couldn't make a dent after their manifesto and the debate then when?geoffw said:
but . .CorrectHorseBattery said:
"The results suggest that the first week of televised debates between the party leaders has not made an immediate impact on the race."
move on please, nothing to see here.0 -
Opinium would see Leigh go blue for the first time ever. Last held by a non red in 1918 with the Liberals and even in 1983 the blues were 25% adrift.
If Leigh falls it really is end of days stuff for Labour.
Surely it cant?0 -
Would be interesting to see the BXP where Lab is incumbent. Perhaps the constituency polls will show it. I think Nigel may have been really helpful to the Tories across the board.0
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Indeed. I think the Lib Dems are going fare worse than expected in London. Not even because of anything they have done, Jez's Marxist manifesto has got a lot of Tory remainers running back home from the Lib Dems.MarqueeMark said:
I suspect the remaining Labour vote there is of the "Fuck off and die, Chuka, you Tory bastard" variety.Artist said:I'm assuming Chuka could squeeze some Labour votes if he's a clear 2nd. Surprised the Lib Dems are so far behind in Chelsea and Fulham. Hendon was always Tories versus Labour.
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What’s the half-life on that?Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Yes, I've been through that thought process, although we're still on 30 minutes minimum in Scotland for delay repay.JohnLilburne said:
Being 14 minutes late so you can't claim Delay Repayinitforthemoney said:
being 16 minutes late and all of the above? being cancelled so the next one is even more overcrowded? being charged 5p more for the same level of service? a smell of urine or vomit? lots of dogs? headphones that bleed? self-important people talking loudly on phones about how they are 16 minutes late?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Can you explain what could be worse for my train than being 15 minutes late, overcrowded (with a lot of people standing), dirty (I had what looked like a shit stain on my seat the other day) and with faulty doors that don't open?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Believe me it can and was under BRCorrectHorseBattery said:
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.DeClare said:
They must be too young to remember the filthy dirty delayed 'services' that the British Railways Board used to operate between 1948-1994 what a nightmare!eristdoof said:
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.rural_voter said:
How have the Swiss railways apparently managed to do better than us over a really long period?Novo said:Those advocating nationalisation of the railways clearly cannot remember how bad British Rail was. Grossly unreliable and inefficient and prone to UK wide strikes paralysing the entire network.
100% elec trains
No Beeching closures
Lower subsidy
Affordable fares (unlike a £150-200 return London-Manchester)
Extreme punctuality.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.0 -
Someone? I think it would have to be a puppy.....nico67 said:
How on earth can you be nervous . Unless Bozo shoots someone at the manifesto launch then I really can’t see anything changing .Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Gin. Why am I still nervousGIN1138 said:
Here you go BigGBig_G_NorthWales said:
19 point lead. Is that a real poll and not fake news ?GIN1138 said:Opinium!!!!!!
And when was it done
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer
An adorably cute puppy.0 -
So you're going for a lower share of the vote for the Tories than they achieved in 2017?Andy_JS said:
It won't be, because some soft Tories will peel off to other parties, the same as happened in 1983. They probably won't get more than 42% on the day.CorrectHorseBattery said:19 points, I just refuse to believe that will the final result. 47% of the vote, no way, sorry.
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No corbyn helps the tories nobody else stop talking shitenunu2 said:
Thank you useful Libdems. You've helped the tories.wooliedyed said:Constituency polls are London again, Chuka within 6 but LDs a mile behind in Chelsea and in Hendon (3rd place)
Again.2 -
A puppy offering free broadband and cuddlesMarqueeMark said:
Someone? I think it would have to be a puppy.....nico67 said:
How on earth can you be nervous . Unless Bozo shoots someone at the manifesto launch then I really can’t see anything changing .Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Gin. Why am I still nervousGIN1138 said:
Here you go BigGBig_G_NorthWales said:
19 point lead. Is that a real poll and not fake news ?GIN1138 said:Opinium!!!!!!
And when was it done
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer
An adorably cute puppy.0 -
As opposed to one?Black_Rook said:
No, the objection is well founded. 47% is clearly an outlier, even when compared with the run of positive polls for the Conservatives.nunu2 said:
Head. In. Sand.CorrectHorseBattery said:19 points, I just refuse to believe that will the final result. 47% of the vote, no way, sorry.
Looking at the figures from an historical perspective, the last time a party polled that well in a General Election was when Labour got 48% of the popular vote under Harold Wilson in 1966 - and that, of course, was when there were only three parties of any consequence contesting the election.
Even if there is a landslide at the end of all this, the Tory vote share is not going to be anything like that spectacular.0 -
Leigh is target seat 125......wooliedyed said:Opinium would see Leigh go blue for the first time ever. Last held by a non red in 1918 with the Liberals and even in 1983 the blues were 25% adrift.
If Leigh falls it really is end of days stuff for Labour.
Surely it cant?0 -
Just think if Labour had let May's deal pass with Labour votes they'd have been able to stand back and watch the Tory Party implode...1
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Well he and his travelling predecessor make so many predictions that by random chance one or two are going to land close to the mark.GIN1138 said:
Yes I've always thought that's a real possibility in the end.Byronic said:
Another of my predictions is maybe coming true. Labours manifesto is so scary and Marxist, it’s driving middle class Remainer switchers back to the Tories. So the LDs suffer.0 -
Boris should launch the manifesto from his dinner table
'I'll be right with you, we are just tucking into a kitten'0 -
Maybe Labour's manifesto did make an impression.MikeL said:I don't think the Lab manifesto made as much of an impression as last time. Two reasons:
1) No novelty factor. Most of it was similar to last time.
2) The media focussed on the total spending plans, rather than the individual goodies.
"Lab will spend £83bn more" doesn't win as many votes as "Lab will scrap tuition fees / increase benefits / give you a pay rise etc"0 -
That puppy, in fact any puppy could run a national broadband service better than Corbyn and McDonnellwooliedyed said:
A puppy offering free broadband and cuddlesMarqueeMark said:
Someone? I think it would have to be a puppy.....nico67 said:
How on earth can you be nervous . Unless Bozo shoots someone at the manifesto launch then I really can’t see anything changing .Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Gin. Why am I still nervousGIN1138 said:
Here you go BigGBig_G_NorthWales said:
19 point lead. Is that a real poll and not fake news ?GIN1138 said:Opinium!!!!!!
And when was it done
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer
An adorably cute puppy.0 -
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.nico67 said:Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
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Deeper, must go deeper!MarqueeMark said:
Leigh is target seat 125......wooliedyed said:Opinium would see Leigh go blue for the first time ever. Last held by a non red in 1918 with the Liberals and even in 1983 the blues were 25% adrift.
If Leigh falls it really is end of days stuff for Labour.
Surely it cant?0 -
Shades of a different Jeremy...MarqueeMark said:
Someone? I think it would have to be a puppy.....nico67 said:
How on earth can you be nervous . Unless Bozo shoots someone at the manifesto launch then I really can’t see anything changing .Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Gin. Why am I still nervousGIN1138 said:
Here you go BigGBig_G_NorthWales said:
19 point lead. Is that a real poll and not fake news ?GIN1138 said:Opinium!!!!!!
And when was it done
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer
An adorably cute puppy.0 -
Dunno if the usual 400 sample (5% MoE) but interesting nonetheless:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/11983060561006469120 -
Indeed, it has made an impression, just not the one Labour were hoping for.Sean_F said:
Maybe Labour's manifesto did make an impression.MikeL said:I don't think the Lab manifesto made as much of an impression as last time. Two reasons:
1) No novelty factor. Most of it was similar to last time.
2) The media focussed on the total spending plans, rather than the individual goodies.
"Lab will spend £83bn more" doesn't win as many votes as "Lab will scrap tuition fees / increase benefits / give you a pay rise etc"0 -
*cough*
It's one poll. Let's not over-egg things.0 -
There was always a certain aspect of Labour being 'too clever by half' throughout the last two years.GIN1138 said:Just think if Labour had let May's deal pass with Labour votes they'd have been able to stand back and watch the Tory Party implode...
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Almost everyone who is afraid of the Revolutionary Comrades of Evo Morales will be on tenterhooks until the result we want is (we hope) in the bag.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Gin. Why am I still nervousGIN1138 said:
Here you go BigGBig_G_NorthWales said:
19 point lead. Is that a real poll and not fake news ?GIN1138 said:Opinium!!!!!!
And when was it done
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer
That said, a consistent pattern of positive polling news for the rest of the evening will help to calm nerves just a little.
If all the companies have Labour still bobbing around the 30% mark (and ideally a little below that) then their steady and relentless upward trajectory, which we all remember from 2017, will have been halted. Then the question becomes whether or not they flatline for the rest of the campaign.
We have to hope that the Lib Dems can hold their remaining share (or, if they don't, that their losses include as many frightened soft centrist Remainers turning Tory to thwart Corbyn as they do various kinds of voters drifting back to Labour.)
Still 19 days to go. Tick tick tick tick...0 -
0
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No, I think after the whole Corbynet fiasco Labour lost all of its remaining credibility. It doesn't matter what individual sweeties they offered, people just don't believe them.MikeL said:I don't think the Lab manifesto made as much of an impression as last time. Two reasons:
1) No novelty factor. Most of it was similar to last time.
2) The media focussed on the total spending plans, rather than the individual goodies.
"Lab will spend £83bn more" doesn't win as many votes as "Lab will scrap tuition fees / increase benefits / give you a pay rise etc"0 -
Umunna has realistic hopes still in the Cities. But they can forget about Chelsea and Fulham.Andrew said:Dunno if the usual 400 sample (5% MoE) but interesting nonetheless:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/11983060561006469120 -
That's the opinium surely?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1198306972056973313
It's not an outlier...0 -
I remember a 1983 trip on the Venice-Athens train laughably called the Acropolis Express. 8 hours late, and a train full of drunken Yugoslav soldiers going home on leave. It was the fastest train on the line, but would stop for a half hour every now and again for the drivers break.Fysics_Teacher said:
I was once on a train that arrived 12 hours late. It was between Istanbul and Athens though, so I suppose I should be grateful it ran at all. At one point the driver got out to pick some fruit - without slowing down the train (he didn’t need to).initforthemoney said:
being 16 minutes lateCorrectHorseBattery said:
Can you explain what could be worse for my train than being 15 minutes late, overcrowded (with a lot of people standing), dirty (I had what looked like a shit stain on my seat the other day) and with faulty doors that don't open?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Believe me it can and was under BRCorrectHorseBattery said:
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.DeClare said:
They must be too young to remember the filthy dirty delayed 'services' that the British Railways Board used to operate between 1948-1994 what a nightmare!eristdoof said:
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.rural_voter said:
How have the Swiss railways apparently managed to do better than us over a really long period?Novo said:Those advocating nationalisation of the railways clearly cannot remember how bad British Rail was. Grossly unreliable and inefficient and prone to UK wide strikes paralysing the entire network.
100% elec trains
No Beeching closures
Lower subsidy
Affordable fares (unlike a £150-200 return London-Manchester)
Extreme punctuality.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.
Mind you, some of my friends had a worse trip on the notorious Magic Bus. That kept the speed up, but via the innovative technique of driver changes in the fast lane of the Autobahn. Ah, the joys of travel in less regulated days...0 -
Yeah I think they've got it wrong, looking at the results. They're identical to Opiniumwooliedyed said:
That's the opinium surely?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1198306972056973313
It's not an outlier...0 -
0
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At what stage might Labour unity fracture and a few home truths be stated by candidates not wholly onboard with the Messiah? Or do we have to wait for election night for that?0
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I do believe conservative remainers will return to the fold, along with others, scared witless by Corbyn's manifesto and that a majority does look likelyBlack_Rook said:
Almost everyone who is afraid of the Revolutionary Comrades of Evo Morales will be on tenterhooks until the result we want is (we hope) in the bag.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Gin. Why am I still nervousGIN1138 said:
Here you go BigGBig_G_NorthWales said:
19 point lead. Is that a real poll and not fake news ?GIN1138 said:Opinium!!!!!!
And when was it done
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer
That said, a consistent pattern of positive polling news for the rest of the evening will help to calm nerves just a little.
If all the companies have Labour still bobbing around the 30% mark (and ideally a little below that) then their steady and relentless upward trajectory, which we all remember from 2017, will have been halted. Then the question becomes whether or not they flatline for the rest of the campaign.
We have to hope that the Lib Dems can hold their remaining share (or, if they don't, that their losses include as many frightened soft centrist Remainers turning Tory to thwart Corbyn as they do various kinds of voters drifting back to Labour.)
Still 19 days to go. Tick tick tick tick...0 -
As I’ve always said you’re free to vote lib dem no way that it lets labour in so no need to fear a corbyn government.Black_Rook said:
Almost everyone who is afraid of the Revolutionary Comrades of Evo Morales will be on tenterhooks until the result we want is (we hope) in the bag.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Gin. Why am I still nervousGIN1138 said:
Here you go BigGBig_G_NorthWales said:
19 point lead. Is that a real poll and not fake news ?GIN1138 said:Opinium!!!!!!
And when was it done
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer
That said, a consistent pattern of positive polling news for the rest of the evening will help to calm nerves just a little.
If all the companies have Labour still bobbing around the 30% mark (and ideally a little below that) then their steady and relentless upward trajectory, which we all remember from 2017, will have been halted. Then the question becomes whether or not they flatline for the rest of the campaign.
We have to hope that the Lib Dems can hold their remaining share (or, if they don't, that their losses include as many frightened soft centrist Remainers turning Tory to thwart Corbyn as they do various kinds of voters drifting back to Labour.)
Still 19 days to go. Tick tick tick tick...0 -
Remarkably I was on that night train the very same year, although we got off in Belgrade. We felt clever bagging a compartment and drawing the curtains to discourage others, then the guard moves this Yugoslav family in with us who spend the entire evening drinking spirits and eating pickled vegetables.Foxy said:
I remember a 1983 trip on the Venice-Athens train laughably called the Acropolis Express. 8 hours late, and a train full of drunken Yugoslav soldiers going home on leave. It was the fastest train on the line, but would stop for a half hour every now and again for the drivers break.Fysics_Teacher said:
I was once on a train that arrived 12 hours late. It was between Istanbul and Athens though, so I suppose I should be grateful it ran at all. At one point the driver got out to pick some fruit - without slowing down the train (he didn’t need to).initforthemoney said:
being 16 minutes lateCorrectHorseBattery said:
Can you explain what could be worse for my train than being 15 minutes late, overcrowded (with a lot of people standing), dirty (I had what looked like a shit stain on my seat the other day) and with faulty doors that don't open?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Believe me it can and was under BRCorrectHorseBattery said:
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.DeClare said:
They must be too young to remember the filthy dirty delayed 'services' that the British Railways Board used to operate between 1948-1994 what a nightmare!eristdoof said:
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.rural_voter said:
How have the Swiss railways apparently managed to do better than us over a really long period?Novo said:Thosework.
100% elec trains
No Beeching closures
Lower subsidy
Affordable fares (unlike a £150-200 return London-Manchester)
Extreme punctuality.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.
Mind you, some of my friends had a worse trip on the notorious Magic Bus. That kept the speed up, but via the innovative technique of driver changes in the fast lane of the Autobahn. Ah, the joys of travel in less regulated days...0 -
Time_to_Leave said:
At what stage might Labour unity fracture and a few home truths be stated by candidates not wholly onboard with the Messiah? Or do we have to wait for election night for that?
The best thing now would be for the obvious Labour collapse to send their voters in the south across to the LibDems in large numbers0 -
Surely 47% less than 20 days before the election = home and hosed. Even a grotesque error would make this 40-32. Course, it's no guarantee of social peace if the vote is mainly about keeping Corbyn out, but choosing a leadership is the main point of elections - and then you reward or punish the government for its policies.
The EU must be delighted. It will either be deal shafting NI unionists, or a no-deal that is clearly the fault of the UK. Compare to another cobbled-together minority looking for another 153 special clauses and conditions and opt-ins. Just get them out and let the shock happen, would be the thinking there.0 -
He needs a Galloway style savagingTime_to_Leave said:At what stage might Labour unity fracture and a few home truths be stated by candidates not wholly onboard with the Messiah? Or do we have to wait for election night for that?
0 -
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.bigjohnowls said:
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.nico67 said:Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.0 -
I do wonder if this is a repeat of 1992 in that the Exit Poll turns out to be wrong, unlikely but possible I supposeBlack_Rook said:
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.bigjohnowls said:
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.nico67 said:Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.0 -
I know we need more polling but Corbyn's manifesto may just have scared so many that Boris is now the safe haven and Brexit is of lesser concernIanB2 said:Time_to_Leave said:At what stage might Labour unity fracture and a few home truths be stated by candidates not wholly onboard with the Messiah? Or do we have to wait for election night for that?
The best thing now would be for the obvious Labour collapse to send their voters in the south across to the LibDems in large numbers0 -
Labour are going to crash and burn 160-180 tories with 60+ majority no need to ramp them anymoreBlack_Rook said:
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.bigjohnowls said:
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.nico67 said:Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.0 -
It might lead to complacency amongst Tory supporters.EPG said:Surely 47% less than 20 days before the election = home and hosed. Even a grotesque error would make this 40-32. Course, it's no guarantee of social peace if the vote is mainly about keeping Corbyn out, but choosing a leadership is the main point of elections - and then you reward or punish the government for its policies.
The EU must be delighted. It will either be deal shafting NI unionists, or a no-deal that is clearly the fault of the UK. Compare to another cobbled-together minority looking for another 153 special clauses and conditions and opt-ins. Just get them out and let the shock happen, would be the thinking there.0 -
Surprisingly no change whatsoever in terms of Tory Seats on the spreads following that Opinium poll. The mid-spread price from both Sporting and Spreadex has remained at 342 seats all day0
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Probably they don't think the gap will be that large?peter_from_putney said:Surprisingly no change whatsoever in terms of Tory Seats on the spreads following that Opinium poll. The mid-spread price from both Sporting and Spreadex has remained at 342 seats all day
0 -
Not this time, once bitten, twice shyAndy_JS said:
It might lead to complacency amongst Tory supporters.EPG said:Surely 47% less than 20 days before the election = home and hosed. Even a grotesque error would make this 40-32. Course, it's no guarantee of social peace if the vote is mainly about keeping Corbyn out, but choosing a leadership is the main point of elections - and then you reward or punish the government for its policies.
The EU must be delighted. It will either be deal shafting NI unionists, or a no-deal that is clearly the fault of the UK. Compare to another cobbled-together minority looking for another 153 special clauses and conditions and opt-ins. Just get them out and let the shock happen, would be the thinking there.0 -
Honestly, I get the arguments that the Tory position isn't as strong as it looks. This might not be a 1997 landslide (though it really might). But even if the polls are overstated and tactical voting is up and they struggle in Scotland and Labour squeeze the LD vote a bit in the final weeks...
Who are the markets kidding making a Tory majority only a 1/2 shot?0 -
Looking at previous Opinium polling this fieldwork is likely to have been conducted on the 20th to the 22nd the same as the Panelbase which showed a ten point lead for the Tories .
That’s the emergency straw clutching that’s needed for Labour tonight .0 -
nah - he's plundered all of the Labour vote and the Tories he thought he had are running back to Boris, terrified of Corbyn's Crazies. Bet if you did that poll again now, he wouldn't be within 10.Black_Rook said:
Umunna has realistic hopes still in the Cities. But they can forget about Chelsea and Fulham.Andrew said:Dunno if the usual 400 sample (5% MoE) but interesting nonetheless:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/11983060561006469120 -
Too early to say.peter_from_putney said:
So you're going for a lower share of the vote for the Tories than they achieved in 2017?Andy_JS said:
It won't be, because some soft Tories will peel off to other parties, the same as happened in 1983. They probably won't get more than 42% on the day.CorrectHorseBattery said:19 points, I just refuse to believe that will the final result. 47% of the vote, no way, sorry.
0 -
Mr. EPG, you're assuming that poll is accurate. Others have leads far lower.0
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A windy night?IanB2 said:
Remarkably I was on that night train the very same year, although we got off in Belgrade. We felt clever bagging a compartment and drawing the curtains to discourage others, then the guard moves this Yugoslav family in with us who spend the entire evening drinking spirits and eating pickled vegetables.Foxy said:
I remember a 1983 trip on the Venice-Athens train laughably called the Acropolis Express. 8 hours late, and a train full of drunken Yugoslav soldiers going home on leave. It was the fastest train on the line, but would stop for a half hour every now and again for the drivers break.Fysics_Teacher said:
I was once on a train that arrived 12 hours late. It was between Istanbul and Athens though, so I suppose I should be grateful it ran at all. At one point the driver got out to pick some fruit - without slowing down the train (he didn’t need to).initforthemoney said:
being 16 minutes lateCorrectHorseBattery said:
Can you explain what could be worse for my train than being 15 minutes late, overcrowded (with a lot of people standing), dirty (I had what looked like a shit stain on my seat the other day) and with faulty doors that don't open?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Believe me it can and was under BRCorrectHorseBattery said:
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.DeClare said:
They must be too young to remember the filthy dirty delayed 'services' that the British Railways Board used to operate between 1948-1994 what a nightmare!eristdoof said:
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.rural_voter said:
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.
Mind you, some of my friends had a worse trip on the notorious Magic Bus. That kept the speed up, but via the innovative technique of driver changes in the fast lane of the Autobahn. Ah, the joys of travel in less regulated days...0 -
Wow. Chill. 😂nichomar said:
No corbyn helps the tories nobody else stop talking shitenunu2 said:
Thank you useful Libdems. You've helped the tories.wooliedyed said:Constituency polls are London again, Chuka within 6 but LDs a mile behind in Chelsea and in Hendon (3rd place)
Again.0 -
Worth noting that the exit poll methodology was heavily reworked in 2001/5 and has had no major errors since.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I do wonder if this is a repeat of 1992 in that the Exit Poll turns out to be wrong, unlikely but possible I supposeBlack_Rook said:
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.bigjohnowls said:
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.nico67 said:Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/0 -
In reality all passenger rail operations are publicly owned - the state owns the franchises and let's them out under fixed term contracts. At the end of the contract rights revert back to the owner. Ironically most of the "privatised" operators are publicly owned (Cross Country a division of Arriva owned by Deutsche Bahn for example).Richard_Tyndall said:And yet I use the East Coast Main line around 50 times a year and whilst it was in private ownership I did not have recourse to use the delay repay system once in 4 years. In the 10 months after it was taken back into public ownership I got my fare back because it was more than an hour delayed 7 times.
My recent experience of public vs private is completely the reverse of yours.
And double irony? The "nationalised" LNER? Run by DOHL - a limited company owned by the DFT but in reality run by Arup, Ernst & Young, and SNC Lavalin.
1 -
We don't know what the shares of the vote will finally be, the best thing to look at is basically the trend, that the Tories are now extending their lead. But how large that lead is, seems to be widely disputed.
How can you have some polls saying 19 and others saying 8? It's insane.0 -
A compartment? You were lucky...IanB2 said:
Remarkably I was on that night train the very same year, although we got off in Belgrade. We felt clever bagging a compartment and drawing the curtains to discourage others, then the guard moves this Yugoslav family in with us who spend the entire evening drinking spirits and eating pickled vegetables.Foxy said:
I remember a 1983 trip on the Venice-Athens train laughably called the Acropolis Express. 8 hours late, and a train full of drunken Yugoslav soldiers going home on leave. It was the fastest train on the line, but would stop for a half hour every now and again for the drivers break.Fysics_Teacher said:
I was once on a train that arrived 12 hours late. It was between Istanbul and Athens though, so I suppose I should be grateful it ran at all. At one point the driver got out to pick some fruit - without slowing down the train (he didn’t need to).initforthemoney said:
being 16 minutes lateCorrectHorseBattery said:
Can youBig_G_NorthWales said:
Believe me it can and was under BRCorrectHorseBattery said:
A lot of us look at the trains now and can't imagine how it could be much worse. My train has been on time twice in the last month. Twice.DeClare said:
They must be tooeristdoof said:
Most of the British population do not believe the private sector can run the railways better than a state owned organisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The majority of railways are publicly owned and run. I don't see why the British seem to think we can do it better.rural_voter said:
How have the Swiss railways apparently managed to do better than us over a really long period?Novo said:Thosework.
100% elec trains
No Beeching closures
Lower subsidy
Affordable fares (unlike a £150-200 return London-Manchester)
Extreme punctuality.
State-owned since 1902. BR was only nationalised in about 1947.
Even in NI the railways are entirely publicly owned.
Mind you, some of my friends had a worse trip on the notorious Magic Bus. That kept the speed up, but via the innovative technique of driver changes in the fast lane of the Autobahn. Ah, the joys of travel in less regulated days...
We had to stand in the corridor until we got to Thessaloniki. If we sat down the guard kicked us until we stood again, " No sleeping! No sleeping!" It was hard to know which was worse, the stench of the conscripts or the spray of urine from carriages ahead when hanging out the window.
(This is all true)0 -
it's a 2/3 shot . It's about 70% probabilityQuincel said:Honestly, I get the arguments that the Tory position isn't as strong as it looks. This might not be a 1997 landslide (though it really might). But even if the polls are overstated and tactical voting is up and they struggle in Scotland and Labour squeeze the LD vote a bit in the final weeks...
Who are the markets kidding making a Tory majority only a 1/2 shot?0 -
The 1992 exit poll still had the Tories taking most seats, just short of a majorityCorrectHorseBattery said:
I do wonder if this is a repeat of 1992 in that the Exit Poll turns out to be wrong, unlikely but possible I supposeBlack_Rook said:
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.bigjohnowls said:
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.nico67 said:Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.0 -
It said Hung Parliament in 2015 right?Quincel said:
Worth noting that the exit poll methodology was heavily reworked in 2001/5 and has had no major errors since.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I do wonder if this is a repeat of 1992 in that the Exit Poll turns out to be wrong, unlikely but possible I supposeBlack_Rook said:
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.bigjohnowls said:
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.nico67 said:Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/0 -
The anti-Brexit election morphs into the anti-Corbyn election?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I know we need more polling but Corbyn's manifesto may just have scared so many that Boris is now the safe haven and Brexit is of lesser concernIanB2 said:Time_to_Leave said:At what stage might Labour unity fracture and a few home truths be stated by candidates not wholly onboard with the Messiah? Or do we have to wait for election night for that?
The best thing now would be for the obvious Labour collapse to send their voters in the south across to the LibDems in large numbers0 -
If this Opinium poll turns out be accurate then Labour are more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.0
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If 2017 hadn’t happened that price would be 1.2 on the exchanges IMO. Just over 2 weeks out from the election and its been double figure leads in the last 12 polls...Quincel said:Honestly, I get the arguments that the Tory position isn't as strong as it looks. This might not be a 1997 landslide (though it really might). But even if the polls are overstated and tactical voting is up and they struggle in Scotland and Labour squeeze the LD vote a bit in the final weeks...
Who are the markets kidding making a Tory majority only a 1/2 shot?1 -
It might indeed, but then, incredibly, there's also an element who wish to be sure of voting for the winning side.Andy_JS said:
It might lead to complacency amongst Tory supporters.EPG said:Surely 47% less than 20 days before the election = home and hosed. Even a grotesque error would make this 40-32. Course, it's no guarantee of social peace if the vote is mainly about keeping Corbyn out, but choosing a leadership is the main point of elections - and then you reward or punish the government for its policies.
The EU must be delighted. It will either be deal shafting NI unionists, or a no-deal that is clearly the fault of the UK. Compare to another cobbled-together minority looking for another 153 special clauses and conditions and opt-ins. Just get them out and let the shock happen, would be the thinking there.0 -
It might also lead to a bandwagon where usual Tory supporters think there is no point lodging a protest vote. So seats like Beaconsfield, Cities of London and Westminster, St Albans, Dumfries get saved. Just a speculation. Point is even an 8-point lead would be enough. I know PB is full of smart, mainly conservative people, good probabilistic thinkers looking for all the possible angles and nervous about a repeat of 2017. But, as the man himself might say, "dudes", it's 19 points.Andy_JS said:
It might lead to complacency amongst Tory supporters.EPG said:Surely 47% less than 20 days before the election = home and hosed. Even a grotesque error would make this 40-32. Course, it's no guarantee of social peace if the vote is mainly about keeping Corbyn out, but choosing a leadership is the main point of elections - and then you reward or punish the government for its policies.
The EU must be delighted. It will either be deal shafting NI unionists, or a no-deal that is clearly the fault of the UK. Compare to another cobbled-together minority looking for another 153 special clauses and conditions and opt-ins. Just get them out and let the shock happen, would be the thinking there.0 -
The initial range had anything from labour most seats to Tories just shortHYUFD said:
The 1992 exit poll still had the Tories taking most seats, just short of a majorityCorrectHorseBattery said:
I do wonder if this is a repeat of 1992 in that the Exit Poll turns out to be wrong, unlikely but possible I supposeBlack_Rook said:
A consistent pattern would be bad for Labour, but not terminal. There's still nearly three weeks left until polling day, and the Tories need to get through their manifesto and another Johnson/Corbyn debate.bigjohnowls said:
Agreed game over if other polls look anything like this one.nico67 said:Game over . That Opinium is a shocker for Labour . And also terrible for the Lib Dems
That said, they should hopefully have learned their lessons re: the manifesto from last time, and there's no sign as yet of the TV set pieces moving the dial.
If the Tories can avoid any major fuck-ups then they ought to finish comfortably ahead on vote share. Whether this will be enough to translate into a decent majority, or any majority, is still anyone's guess.
For all we know, the strange looking numbers coming out of the model @Barnesian has been floating might transpire to be correct, especially if enough Labour habit voters revert to type in the polling booths in the marginals, the Lib Dem and Green votes collapse to the net benefit of Labour, and there's a substantial amount of Remain tactical voting.
I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait until at least the Exit Poll, and possibly even until four o'clock the following morning, before we've a firm idea of where this election is headed.1
This discussion has been closed.