politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to the first leaders’ TV debate of GE2019 – without a r

CORBYN will be a remainer if he needs to be, to keep SNP or LD happy

I’ve got some paint I’m watching dry,

I’m thinking how much better it would be at running the country than either of these losers.

I’ll get my “where the hell is Super Jo?” in early.

I expect Boris Johnson to win against a poor opponent (a bit like the Battle of Zama) but display all the humility of Crassus at Carrhae.

kyf_100 said:

So long as Corbyn doesn't promise to nationalise Wetherspoons and Boris can keep himself from humping someone's leg, both will be considered to have outperformed expectations.

In other words, the bar is set very low for this one. Who will disappoint the least?

Johnson, it is well known, wishes to screw Corbyn remorselessly.

But he will hopefully wait until December 12th and do it via the ballot box rather than live on stage.

Ave_it said:

CORBYN will be a remainer if he needs to be, to keep SNP or LD happy

Must be tense waiting for the big confrontation - Saturday 3pm

MikeSmithson said:

Ave_it said:

CORBYN will be a remainer if he needs to be, to keep SNP or LD happy

Must be tense waiting for the big confrontation - Saturday 3pm

We probably won't be playing next season so yes I'm quite nervous!

The starter to #MegaPollingSaturday3!

brokenwheel said:

Gallowgate said:

I’ll get my “where the hell is Super Jo?” in early.

Killing squirrels.

Has that story not tailed off yet?

It’s very convenient for me. I was teaching about Richard III earlier today and I explained why he was such an idiot to deny having planned to marry his niece. Immediately everyone gossiped about how the king had denied planning an extraordinary act of incest.

Now I have an up to the minute example as well.

MikeL said:

FPT: BBC has lost live coverage of final 2 rounds of Augusta Masters golf.

A blow for that August body.

The final garden stakes numbers are in

360 up (8 refusals 5 Corbyn 3 BREXIT) and I am officially knackered despite only being the driver.

My spell as silver van man is over.

2017 numbers for comparison 400

ydoethur said:

brokenwheel said:

Gallowgate said:

I’ll get my “where the hell is Super Jo?” in early.

Killing squirrels.

Has that story not tailed off yet?

It’s very convenient for me. I was teaching about Richard III earlier today and I explained why he was such an idiot to deny having planned to marry his niece. Immediately everyone gossiped about how the king had denied planning an extraordinary act of incest.

Now I have an up to the minute example as well.

I have literally no idea what that post is about

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

brokenwheel said:

Gallowgate said:

I’ll get my “where the hell is Super Jo?” in early.

Killing squirrels.

Has that story not tailed off yet?

It’s very convenient for me. I was teaching about Richard III earlier today and I explained why he was such an idiot to deny having planned to marry his niece. Immediately everyone gossiped about how the king had denied planning an extraordinary act of incest.

Now I have an up to the minute example as well.

I have literally no idea what that post is about

The bit about Richard, or the bit about squirrels?

bigjohnowls said:

Hence forth Tory Swinson is renamed super Jo as she has managed to halve LD VI in a couple of months.

Long may she reign.

I invented 'SuperJo' the week before last!

Benpointer said:

Gallowgate said:

I’ll get my “where the hell is Super Jo?” in early.

Tsk! Sloppy Jo!

Did she lose the appeal today then?

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

brokenwheel said:

Gallowgate said:

I’ll get my “where the hell is Super Jo?” in early.

Killing squirrels.

Has that story not tailed off yet?

It’s very convenient for me. I was teaching about Richard III earlier today and I explained why he was such an idiot to deny having planned to marry his niece. Immediately everyone gossiped about how the king had denied planning an extraordinary act of incest.

Now I have an up to the minute example as well.

I have literally no idea what that post is about

The bit about Richard, or the bit about squirrels?

The squirrels

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jo-swinson-squirrels-shooting-stones-lib-dems-slingshot-fake-news-a9209196.html

Spin will be that Jezza nailed and it and Boris was hoist by his own putard.

And then the polls will arrive at the weekend and it will have absolutely ni difference whatsoever.

timmo said:

Benpointer said:

Gallowgate said:

I’ll get my “where the hell is Super Jo?” in early.

Tsk! Sloppy Jo!

Did she lose the appeal today then?

Did they have leave to appeal?

I’m watching The Crown tonight.

Really.

I will get nothing from this debate.

Benpointer said:

Gallowgate said:

I’ll get my “where the hell is Super Jo?” in early.

Tsk! Sloppy Jo!

Did she lose the appeal today then?

RobD said:

Flashy4 said:

https://twitter.com/stvcolin/status/1194932302742200320?s=21

Erm, surely they could have picked a better time?

It will be adjourned pretty quickly

Casino_Royale said:

Ave_it said:

The key to CON is to get some of the seats we lost to LAB in 2010 and 2015 back (probably won't be Hove or ECA) but maybe places like Crewe, Ipswich, Reading W, even Kensington and Canterbury.

We are not going to be getting all these Northern seats where we haven't won before although maybe a few like Newcastle UL and Wrexham.

20 to 25 gains from LAB might be enough!

I can believe Reading West and Crewe and Nantwich. Derby North should be ok too.

I’m less confident of Kensington and Canterbury.

Ipswich, Bristol North West and Croydon Central maybe maybe not.

Hove, ECA, Enfield Southgate, Portsmouth South and Battersea definitely not.

Here are my model's latest predictions

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing

Note that I have dropped the Wales part of my model. It didn't reflect the regional swing and was too harsh on the Tories. I am now using a combination of Baxter, Flavible and MRP for Wales.
I have made the additive and multiplication models 50/50.
I have updated with the two polls tonight.

Con/Lab/LD

England 311/194/27
Wales 15/20/1
Scotland 5/1/5
Total 331/215/33

bigjohnowls said:

Hence forth Tory Swinson is renamed super Jo as she has managed to halve LD VI in a couple of months.

Long may she reign.

Well at least she doesn't help the tories as much as corbyn whch i is the single reason Johnson is heading for a majority.

Benpointer said:

timmo said:

Benpointer said:

Gallowgate said:

I’ll get my “where the hell is Super Jo?” in early.

Tsk! Sloppy Jo!

Did she lose the appeal today then?

Did they have leave to appeal?

She appeals to nobody

Apart from Gallowgate and OGH

RobD said:

Flashy4 said:

RobD said:

Flashy4 said:

https://twitter.com/stvcolin/status/1194932302742200320?s=21

Erm, surely they could have picked a better time?

Justice delayed is justice denied.

I might have a different opinion if he was standing again.

I don’t think the wheels of justice can be stopped from turning merely because the accused is a retired politician. Even if he was quite a senior one and there’s an election on.

Flashy4 said:

RobD said:

Flashy4 said:

RobD said:

Flashy4 said:

https://twitter.com/stvcolin/status/1194932302742200320?s=21

Erm, surely they could have picked a better time?

Justice delayed is justice denied.

I might have a different opinion if he was standing again.

It’s just a prelim hearing - but the charges may have been added to - or reduced..

OK, I see less reason for a delay for that. Might be different if the ex-leader was being charged a few days before election day!

Welcome to PB, btw (assuming this isn't your fourth account after the password debacle!)

Flashy4 said:

RobD said:

Flashy4 said:

RobD said:

Flashy4 said:

RobD said:

Flashy4 said:

https://twitter.com/stvcolin/status/1194932302742200320?s=21

Erm, surely they could have picked a better time?

Justice delayed is justice denied.

I might have a different opinion if he was standing again.

It’s just a prelim hearing - but the charges may have been added to - or reduced..

OK, I see less reason for a delay for that. Might be different if the ex-leader was being charged a few days before election day!

Welcome to PB, btw (assuming this isn't your fourth account after the password debacle!)

The ban hammer never forgets apparently.

an ex-con?

bigjohnowls said:

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Hence forth Tory Swinson is renamed super Jo as she has managed to halve LD VI in a couple of months.

Long may she reign.

Well at least she doesn't help the tories as much as corbyn whch i is the single reason Johnson is heading for a majority.

Why are LDs down from 22 to 12?

Nothing to do with Super Jo or Jezza?

Totally due to the sheer horror that many people feel about corbyn getting into power, you should really question why you want to lose elections and fail the people you pretend to want to help because losing with a true socialist platform is more important than actually changing people’s lives. Labour sub 200 big Tory majority all because of corbyn and his clique.

Casino_Royale said:

I’m watching The Crown tonight.

Really.

I will get nothing from this debate.

Better The Crown than The Clown?

bigjohnowls said:

My TV is fooked my Green has gone grey.

Must be the oddest PEB so far. Caroline Lucas actually looked somewhat scary!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ave_it said:

bigjohnowls said:

Hence forth Tory Swinson is renamed super Jo as she has managed to halve LD VI in a couple of months.

Long may she reign.

I invented 'SuperJo' the week before last!

My mum just called her a "junior office girl"

Boris = "filthy disgusting b*st*rd"
Corbyn = "useless idiot"

Maybe your mum should be PM! She would be an improvement on them!

Banterman said:

I don't think the mob outside the ITV studio chanting what sounds like "Tory scum" are going to win over any voters to Labour

I'd dearly love to ram that loudhailer up that scruffy rabbles nose.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Can we please all save time by stating now who we think has won.

I think SuperJo won it, by virtue of not appearing.

Larry the Cat.

He has managed to pivot out of the 'retirement' they had planned for him in the new year. Outstanding debating skills.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Can we please all save time by stating now who we think has won.

I think SuperJo won it, by virtue of not appearing.

I think the answer will be ITV. If the debate is interesting (however defined) ITV will get the credit, if it's boring no-one will tune into the others.

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Hence forth Tory Swinson is renamed super Jo as she has managed to halve LD VI in a couple of months.

Long may she reign.

Well at least she doesn't help the tories as much as corbyn whch i is the single reason Johnson is heading for a majority.

Why are LDs down from 22 to 12?

Nothing to do with Super Jo or Jezza?

Totally due to the sheer horror that many people feel about corbyn getting into power, you should really question why you want to lose elections and fail the people you pretend to want to help because losing with a true socialist platform is more important than actually changing people’s lives. Labour sub 200 big Tory majority all because of corbyn and his clique.

Totally due.

Really.

GIN1138 said:

bigjohnowls said:

My TV is fooked my Green has gone grey.

Must be the oddest PEB so far. Caroline Lucas actually looked somewhat scary!

Different. Black and white. Great performance. Superb.

So, I just read the Green Party Manifesto, as I assume has every reasonable person in the country.

First impressions
92 pages – a bit chunky, but bookmarked to the various sections, which I don’t recall others doing last time, so that’s convenient. No financial tables at the back like last time, which is a shame, but at least they attempt to explain their financing. The title ‘If not now, when?’ seems double edged, since given their likely vote share and seat numbers, are they not implicitly admitting it will be ‘never’ for them and their policies, if it is not now?

The executive summary of their five major themes (Green New Deal, Remain and Transform, Grow Democracy, The Green Quality of Life Guarantee, and The New Deal for Tax and Spend) is useful and well presented in ensuring it should be easy to remember at least one key detail of each theme even if you don’t get past page 3.

Inter chapter sections on what elected Greens are delivering is a bit underwhelming, but not a bad idea.

Overall the theme is being very transformational, although like all parties they are self-righteous. From the forward ‘The Green Party has always been on the right side of history and you can trust us to get the future right too’. Yes, the Green Party are always right.

Oh, I'm not done.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ave_it said:

bigjohnowls said:

Hence forth Tory Swinson is renamed super Jo as she has managed to halve LD VI in a couple of months.

Long may she reign.

I invented 'SuperJo' the week before last!

My mum just called her a "junior office girl"

Boris = "filthy disgusting b*st*rd"
Corbyn = "useless idiot"

Your mother is wrong.

Johnson is also a useless idiot.

And Corbyn is also a filthy disgusting bastard.

bigjohnowls said:

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Hence forth Tory Swinson is renamed super Jo as she has managed to halve LD VI in a couple of months.

Long may she reign.

Well at least she doesn't help the tories as much as corbyn whch i is the single reason Johnson is heading for a majority.

Why are LDs down from 22 to 12?

Nothing to do with Super Jo or Jezza?

Totally due to the sheer horror that many people feel about corbyn getting into power, you should really question why you want to lose elections and fail the people you pretend to want to help because losing with a true socialist platform is more important than actually changing people’s lives. Labour sub 200 big Tory majority all because of corbyn and his clique.

So since October LD down from 22 to 12 and its all Corbyns fault. At least your consistent.

Your leader is a voter repellent hypocritical lightweight you should get rid and get Layla in.

No way LD vote would be nose diving faster than a Beoing 737 Max without Super Jo.

You would find any lib dem leader repellent because you see them trying to occupy your entitled space in the ‘any but Tory vote’ spectrum and the bastards get elected to local councils depriving you of your god given right to anoint the next labour candidate. The tories believe the same, the duopoly is all they want to preserve but it will be what it will be. I predict that corbyn will be an even better helper than Michael Foot was to the Tory cause. It’s you’re own fault, nobody else you support him you live with him but at least criticism lib dem policies rather than petty personality slurs.

bigjohnowls said:

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Hence forth Tory Swinson is renamed super Jo as she has managed to halve LD VI in a couple of months.

Long may she reign.

Well at least she doesn't help the tories as much as corbyn whch i is the single reason Johnson is heading for a majority.

Why are LDs down from 22 to 12?

Nothing to do with Super Jo or Jezza?

Totally due to the sheer horror that many people feel about corbyn getting into power, you should really question why you want to lose elections and fail the people you pretend to want to help because losing with a true socialist platform is more important than actually changing people’s lives. Labour sub 200 big Tory majority all because of corbyn and his clique.

So since October LD down from 22 to 12 and its all Corbyns fault. At least your consistent.

Your leader is a voter repellent hypocritical lightweight you should get rid and get Layla in.

No way LD vote would be nose diving faster than a Beoing 737 Max without Super Jo.

As has already been explained, the LD vote going down is because of successful tactical voting. It will be going up in LD target seats and dropping rapidly in non-target seats to avoid splitting the remain vote. There are many more non-target seats so the average LD share comes down but hopefully the number of targets seats won by LDs goes up.

I'm not dismayed by it. It's nothing to do with Jo but a function of successful targeting.

ydoethur said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ave_it said:

bigjohnowls said:

Hence forth Tory Swinson is renamed super Jo as she has managed to halve LD VI in a couple of months.

Long may she reign.

I invented 'SuperJo' the week before last!

My mum just called her a "junior office girl"

Boris = "filthy disgusting b*st*rd"
Corbyn = "useless idiot"

Your mother is wrong.

Johnson is also a useless idiot.

And Corbyn is also a filthy disgusting bastard.

Swinson isn't a junior office girl?

kle4 said:

So, I just read the Green Party Manifesto, as I assume has every reasonable person in the country.

First impressions
92 pages – a bit chunky, but bookmarked to the various sections, which I don’t recall others doing last time, so that’s convenient. No financial tables at the back like last time, which is a shame, but at least they attempt to explain their financing. The title ‘If not now, when?’ seems double edged, since given their likely vote share and seat numbers, are they not implicitly admitting it will be ‘never’ for them and their policies, if it is not now?

The executive summary of their five major themes (Green New Deal, Remain and Transform, Grow Democracy, The Green Quality of Life Guarantee, and The New Deal for Tax and Spend) is useful and well presented in ensuring it should be easy to remember at least one key detail of each theme even if you don’t get past page 3.

Inter chapter sections on what elected Greens are delivering is a bit underwhelming, but not a bad idea.

Overall the theme is being very transformational, although like all parties they are self-righteous. From the forward ‘The Green Party has always been on the right side of history and you can trust us to get the future right too’. Yes, the Green Party are always right.

Oh, I'm not done.

The title is a nod to Primo Levi presumably.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Can we please all save time by stating now who we think has won.

I think SuperJo won it, by virtue of not appearing.

Kate Garraway.

Barnesian said:

Casino_Royale said:

Ave_it said:

The key to CON is to get some of the seats we lost to LAB in 2010 and 2015 back (probably won't be Hove or ECA) but maybe places like Crewe, Ipswich, Reading W, even Kensington and Canterbury.

We are not going to be getting all these Northern seats where we haven't won before although maybe a few like Newcastle UL and Wrexham.

20 to 25 gains from LAB might be enough!

I can believe Reading West and Crewe and Nantwich. Derby North should be ok too.

I’m less confident of Kensington and Canterbury.

Ipswich, Bristol North West and Croydon Central maybe maybe not.

Hove, ECA, Enfield Southgate, Portsmouth South and Battersea definitely not.

Here are my model's latest predictions

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing

Note that I have dropped the Wales part of my model. It didn't reflect the regional swing and was too harsh on the Tories. I am now using a combination of Baxter, Flavible and MRP for Wales.
I have made the additive and multiplication models 50/50.
I have updated with the two polls tonight.

Con/Lab/LD

England 311/194/27
Wales 15/20/1
Scotland 5/1/5
Total 331/215/33

Is that the first time you have predicted a workable Tory majority?

rottenborough said:

GIN1138 said:

bigjohnowls said:

My TV is fooked my Green has gone grey.

Must be the oddest PEB so far. Caroline Lucas actually looked somewhat scary!

Different. Black and white. Great performance. Superb.

Agreed. It is difficult to think what more she could have done to drive voters to either Lab or LDs.

Remain and Transform
Yawn – ‘the social contract is broken and the power game is rigged’. Student Common room stuff.

I get what they are saying about Leave not fixing people’s issues, but it seems very convenient that the Greens say they recognize why people voted for Brexit, and not one of them is that some people wanted to leave. The Greens channeling Daenerys Targaryen – people don’t know their own minds, but the Greens do.

Live streaming of meetings of the European Central Bank – now that’ll be a thrill ride! But a lot of these EU wide plans (there's loads to reform the EU) are not in the Greens’ power. But they do agree with not doing the Strasbourg move.

‘Reducing migration in the long term’. Never expected to see that. Needs EU wide minimum income guarantee, EU wide minimum wages, just for starters. The latter sounds impossible to me.

FPTP to go, of course, but for local councils they want all councils to vote every 2 years to elect 50% of its members. I think voting by thirds is dumb, and this is a bit better I guess, but forcing those that elect every 4 years to change seems at odds with their words on devolving things to localities, to trust them. Also to force them to move from Cabinet systems to Committee systems. Again, not a problem wanting more Committee systems back, but ‘requiring’ it?

Referendum on a Cornish assembly

Chancellor of the Exchequer to be supplanted from No. 11 by a Carbon Chancellor

Scrap the Home Office. Rename the Ministry of Defence to the Ministry for Security and Peace.

Overhaul of parliamentary language to make it self explanatory – this is just waffle. You can make things easier, I am sure, but its passing legislation, it’s going to get a bit legalistic at times.

Green Quality of life Guarantee
I’m starting to flag now, but its basically money money money for everyone. No one to be paid more than 10x that of the lowest paid worker, and no bonus more than the annual salary of the lowest paid worker.

Replacing Ofsted.

Not abolishing private schools, which surprises me.

Windrush day – a new bank holiday to celebrate migration.

New press regime to allow women to make complaints about media coverage encouraging misogyny.

Support employers to explire the benefits of offering menstruation and menopausal leave to workers – surprised this is not going to be a requirement.

Pardon small scale drug dealers. Cannabis legal, of course.

New deal for tax and spend
Council tax and business rates abolished – Land Value Tax . charge landowner a proportion of capital value of the land each year (est at 1.4% of current values)

Trident, new roads, airports, HS2 axed

Says extra operational expenditure of 141.5bn a year. Not sure that adds up given the 100bn a year on Green new deal.

Done.

MarqueeMark said:

Barnesian said:

Casino_Royale said:

Ave_it said:

The key to CON is to get some of the seats we lost to LAB in 2010 and 2015 back (probably won't be Hove or ECA) but maybe places like Crewe, Ipswich, Reading W, even Kensington and Canterbury.

We are not going to be getting all these Northern seats where we haven't won before although maybe a few like Newcastle UL and Wrexham.

20 to 25 gains from LAB might be enough!

I can believe Reading West and Crewe and Nantwich. Derby North should be ok too.

I’m less confident of Kensington and Canterbury.

Ipswich, Bristol North West and Croydon Central maybe maybe not.

Hove, ECA, Enfield Southgate, Portsmouth South and Battersea definitely not.

Here are my model's latest predictions

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing

Note that I have dropped the Wales part of my model. It didn't reflect the regional swing and was too harsh on the Tories. I am now using a combination of Baxter, Flavible and MRP for Wales.
I have made the additive and multiplication models 50/50.
I have updated with the two polls tonight.

Con/Lab/LD

England 311/194/27
Wales 15/20/1
Scotland 5/1/5
Total 331/215/33

Is that the first time you have predicted a workable Tory majority?

Yes. It's because of the Welsh effect rather than polling movement.

I see Jester was posing as south paw earlier.

We all know he is North Poor

South Rich

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If Corbyn does well, this will be the start.

If he does badly, it might well be the end.

Although I think Johnson running away from one of the debates isn't a great idea.

Corbyn will do well (be seen widely to have "won") and it will make absolutely no difference whatsoever.

Barnesian said:

bigjohnowls said:

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Hence forth Tory Swinson is renamed super Jo as she has managed to halve LD VI in a couple of months.

Long may she reign.

Well at least she doesn't help the tories as much as corbyn whch i is the single reason Johnson is heading for a majority.

Why are LDs down from 22 to 12?

Nothing to do with Super Jo or Jezza?

Totally due to the sheer horror that many people feel about corbyn getting into power, you should really question why you want to lose elections and fail the people you pretend to want to help because losing with a true socialist platform is more important than actually changing people’s lives. Labour sub 200 big Tory majority all because of corbyn and his clique.

So since October LD down from 22 to 12 and its all Corbyns fault. At least your consistent.

Your leader is a voter repellent hypocritical lightweight you should get rid and get Layla in.

No way LD vote would be nose diving faster than a Beoing 737 Max without Super Jo.

As has already been explained, the LD vote going down is because of successful tactical voting. It will be going up in LD target seats and dropping rapidly in non-target seats to avoid splitting the remain vote. There are many more non-target seats so the average LD share comes down but hopefully the number of targets seats won by LDs goes up.

I'm not dismayed by it. It's nothing to do with Jo but a function of successful targeting.

Let them believe what they want, the continued vitriol hatred from both left and right has sustained me for 36 years, we get in their way it destroys their key messages and it disrupts their ability to award minions with council seats in return for campaigning effort and funding.

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Why s it clashing with Wales match???

Nobody cares.