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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to the first leaders’ TV debate of GE2019 – without a r

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  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Regardless of any snap poll Corbyn got what he wanted . I fail to see how this doesn’t improve his image.

    I think the order of the questions helped him, the Brexit part was a struggle , after that he was much better .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,327

    Michael Gove thinks.

    Your premise is flawed.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    I may be biased but I think Boris did better than I expected there.

    He definitely did at first, but towards the end he degraded into his normal interview form of having difficulty stringing a sentence together.

    I was also surprised he didn't have a few quirky phrases ready to go. Normally that's his media strategy- say something like "inverted pyramid of piffle" knowing that it will be in all the headlines
  • I may be biased but I think Boris did better than I expected there.

    I think he did better too. But I expected Corbyn to be a bit more animated about austerity etc and I didn’t feel he really got fired up. He also decided to go a bit prepared statement-y and didn’t take the opportunity to take a lot of shots at Boris whereas Boris took the opportunity to stick a few negative jibes in (perhaps a bit too much).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Chameleon said:

    Corbyn narrow win, but all his lines will be forgotten within a few hours, whereas 'get brexit done' will stick in the mind.

    That's the key.

    What matters is what's remembered.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    ..
  • What the fuck is the point in taking about Prince Andrew???

    We just heard Boris say Andy's "beyond reproach"?
    The Monarhy. Not Andy.
    Andy's part of the Monarchy, no?
    Not in any meaningful way, no.
    His mum's the Queen...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485
    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    Corbyn won’t care though...He comes across as much more genuine who actually does care about people.

    Blimey.

    Must have been something REALLY strong in your drinking game. Was it industrial alcohol or meths?
    Absinthe.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    nichomar said:

    What the fuck is the point in taking about Prince Andrew???

    We just heard Boris say Andy's "beyond reproach"?
    The Monarhy. Not Andy.
    Andy's part of the Monarchy, no?
    Both of the answers on the monarchy may end up being the most newsworthy part of the evening.
    Interesting, I remember corbyn response that I applauded but don’t remember johnsons
    The monarchy is "beyond reproach".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,652
    HYUFD said:

    God, that was crap.

    Yes, an hour of my life I will not get back, no real blows either way.

    Switching over to Golddigger on BBC1 like most viewers now I expect
    Shall I tell you the ending watched it all in one sitting.

    Thought it was marvellous.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    The format lost.

    the debate was not long enough and not focused enough. They weren't allowed to develop their answers enough and there was very little actual debate. It needed to either be much more focused on one or two topics or twice as long.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    MikeL said:

    Gove now in spin room on BBC News Channel.

    Ok, debates are of questionable usefulness, many agree that, but surely we can all agree that asking politicians what they thought in the spin rooms is completely pointless?

    Or possibly counter productive - I remember in 2010 some spinners for Brown were talking about substance over style so much, when I thought he'd been ok, that it made him seem worse.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    nichomar said:

    What the fuck is the point in taking about Prince Andrew???

    We just heard Boris say Andy's "beyond reproach"?
    The Monarhy. Not Andy.
    Andy's part of the Monarchy, no?
    Both of the answers on the monarchy may end up being the most newsworthy part of the evening.
    Interesting, I remember corbyn response that I applauded but don’t remember johnsons
    "The institution of the Monarchy is beyond reproach"

    He emphasised the word 'institution' a bit, I think to stress he wasn't making a comment on Prince Andrew.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    I may be biased but I think Boris did better than I expected there.

    I agree and he knew it at the end.

    I do think Boris could have just agreed with Corbyn on the Andy question it would have been an easy thing to do.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,848

    They were both crap. Corbyn looks shifty, Johnson sounds shifty. Corbyn couldn't answer where he stands on Brexit, Johnson couldn't answer even a Christmas question without talking about Brexit.

    Well duh. Politician in wanting the public to be left with one particular idea relentlessly promoting that idea shock.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Pochettino sacked.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Chameleon said:

    Corbyn narrow win, but all his lines will be forgotten within a few hours, whereas 'get brexit done' will stick in the mind.

    We have a winner. Does anyone seriously think Boris wanted to keep talking about Brexit instead of what he could REALLY leave Corbyn under the Christmas tree? Lol.
  • Boil it down - Jezza couldn’t answer on Brexit - the end.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485
    MikeL said:

    Pochettino sacked.

    What, again? Where had he gone to?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    They were both crap. Corbyn looks shifty, Johnson sounds shifty. Corbyn couldn't answer where he stands on Brexit, Johnson couldn't answer even a Christmas question without talking about Brexit.

    Yes, I think that's reasonable. There's sticking to your key message and overdoing it. And Corbyn doesn't bluster like Boris, but he dissembles like a pro.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849
    Crap versus more crap. The argument isn’t worth having. People should break with habit and vote for someone new.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    MikeL said:

    Chameleon said:

    Corbyn narrow win, but all his lines will be forgotten within a few hours, whereas 'get brexit done' will stick in the mind.

    That's the key.

    What matters is what's remembered.
    People laughing at corbyn twice and johnson once will also probably be remembered
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    I may be biased but I think Boris did better than I expected there.

    I think he did better too. But I expected Corbyn to be a bit more animated about austerity etc and I didn’t feel he really got fired up. He also decided to go a bit prepared statement-y and didn’t take the opportunity to take a lot of shots at Boris whereas Boris took the opportunity to stick a few negative jibes in (perhaps a bit too much).
    Yeah, Corbyn stuck to prepared lines, which meant he wasn't always on topic (you could practically see the thought process; "Trust? Well that's close enough to leadership, I'll use my prepared answer for that") whereas Boris took each question as it came, which is why his performance was much less consistent.

    Surprising mental agility from Corbyn though in his Christmas Carol answer
  • “You’re watching ITV - 9 o’clock now, and time for bollocks to go *in* to famous people’s mouths for an hour”.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243

    Michael Gove thinks Boris won.

    What's the little **** up to now? :D
  • kle4 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    I'm happy with that - Corbyn needed to destroy and humiliate Boris if he's going to overcome his lead, but he doesn't have it in him.

    Maybe not, but the election is not about Labour beating the Tories, its ensuring the Tories do not win by enough to, well, properly win.

    Has Corbyn done enough to follow the pattern of 2017 and see polling continue to tick up? Will Labour members have despaired, or LDs be put off?
    Remember that Labour have built up this myth of Corbyn The Great Campaigner, whose genius and powers of inspiration pulled Labour back from the brink in 2017 and nearly won a shocking upset...

    Did you see that man on stage today?
  • MikeL said:

    Gove now in spin room on BBC News Channel.

    He’s toasting the poor Labour sap he’s up against.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    Clear Corbyn win by the end in my view, but let's see what the snap poll says.

    That's such a crap comment Nick I expected better of you.
    He quite clearly did not win unless you call being laughed at winning!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    spudgfsh said:

    The format lost.

    the debate was not long enough and not focused enough. They weren't allowed to develop their answers enough and there was very little actual debate. It needed to either be much more focused on one or two topics or twice as long.

    Yes, an hour is not long enough for a debate, not when you have to cut them off from even pretty brief answers.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Both leaders got people in the crowd shouting 'woo'.

    Can I just repeat that there is no torture too medieval, no bit of Lego too sharp to kneel upon, and no upturned plug too inconveniently located on a nighttime trip to the bathroom for people who shout woo in a debate or comedy audience.

    It's the bellwether signifier of the douchebag.

    They should be put somewhere that Dante cut from the Inferno because it wouldn't get past the censors.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    spudgfsh said:

    The format lost.

    the debate was not long enough and not focused enough. They weren't allowed to develop their answers enough and there was very little actual debate. It needed to either be much more focused on one or two topics or twice as long.

    Agreed.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Gove and Gwynne having stand up row on BBC News Channel!
  • TOPPING said:

    They were both crap. Corbyn looks shifty, Johnson sounds shifty. Corbyn couldn't answer where he stands on Brexit, Johnson couldn't answer even a Christmas question without talking about Brexit.

    Well duh. Politician in wanting the public to be left with one particular idea relentlessly promoting that idea shock.
    And that point was made by Mike L above. I might have been annoyed and entertained by Johnson in equal measure but that's the main thing that stuck - that he endlessly kept going back to where does Corbyn stand on Brexit?

    The same thing. Endlessly repeated. If it's about you and you don't do it (*cough* string and stable) then it's a problem. But as Corbyn can't take a clear line on Brexit it isn't a problem as he won't demolish the Cummings attack line
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Daily Mail comments reckon Bozza won it by a ~ 10-1 margin or so.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Chameleon said:

    Corbyn narrow win, but all his lines will be forgotten within a few hours, whereas 'get brexit done' will stick in the mind.

    These debates are watched by millions of people who do not follow politics closely; it’s important that the key lines are hammered home, repetitive though they seem to us.
  • Could you imagine if that debate had been with all the leaders
  • I’ve just finished episode 5 of The Crown.

    In many ways a party election broadcast against a Corbyn Labour Government.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,709

    Clear Corbyn win by the end in my view, but let's see what the snap poll says.

    Nice unbiased opinion there. Snap poll =meaningless
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    Michael Gove thinks Boris won.

    There's a surprise.
    I think Gove as leader would be brilliant in these debates but lacking elsewhere which is probably why he's not leader.
  • In a good old fashioned pre-internet election the Tories would have a man in some sort of costume asking Corbyn that question via loud hailer every day. Labour would, of course be following Boris with a man dressed as a chlorinated chicken. I miss those days.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485
    Drutt said:

    Both leaders got people in the crowd shouting 'woo'.

    Can I just repeat that there is no torture too medieval, no bit of Lego too sharp to kneel upon, and no upturned plug too inconveniently located on a nighttime trip to the bathroom for people who shout woo in a debate or comedy audience.

    It's the bellwether signifier of the douchebag.

    They should be put somewhere that Dante cut from the Inferno because it wouldn't get past the censors.

    Worse. They should be on the first tee in Hell, with the guy who shouts out "In the hole!"
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732

    I may be biased but I think Boris did better than I expected there.

    He definitely did at first, but towards the end he degraded into his normal interview form of having difficulty stringing a sentence together.

    I was also surprised he didn't have a few quirky phrases ready to go. Normally that's his media strategy- say something like "inverted pyramid of piffle" knowing that it will be in all the headlines
    He threw in a “lacuna”.
  • When will people learn, it's about the undecideds
  • Pulpstar said:

    Evening all. The day the Poch turned :D ?!

    Pulpstar said:

    Evening all. The day the Poch turned :D ?!

    Wahay! Got him at 20/1 start of the season. Sod the politics, I'm off down the pub. :)
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    nico67 said:

    Regardless of any snap poll Corbyn got what he wanted . I fail to see how this doesn’t improve his image.

    I think the order of the questions helped him, the Brexit part was a struggle , after that he was much better .

    Are you for real? How could that performance improve his image?

    I can't get my head round how anyone could think what you just wrote.
  • 51/49 Johnson/Corbyn
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    BluerBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    I'm happy with that - Corbyn needed to destroy and humiliate Boris if he's going to overcome his lead, but he doesn't have it in him.

    Maybe not, but the election is not about Labour beating the Tories, its ensuring the Tories do not win by enough to, well, properly win.

    Has Corbyn done enough to follow the pattern of 2017 and see polling continue to tick up? Will Labour members have despaired, or LDs be put off?
    Remember that Labour have built up this myth of Corbyn The Great Campaigner, whose genius and powers of inspiration pulled Labour back from the brink in 2017 and nearly won a shocking upset...

    Did you see that man on stage today?
    I did not. But something I tend to believe is that sides often win, or lose, in spite of their own efforts. I don't think Remain or Leave were the best at putting their own cases forward for instance, often making the case for their opponents. I think to a lesser degree it happens in politics. You do still need pull factors to draw people to you, and inpirational leadership is part of that, but push factors are more vital, and can even add to the pull factors.

    Corbyn's personal ratings are in the toilet, yet the early campaigning has seen him and Labour increase. A reasonable, not breakout, performance, against the 'monster' Boris, could do a lot for the cause in spite of him landing no knock out blows. Boris will hope that Corbyn won't committ to remain or leave horrified LDs.
  • And damson jam won, because it’s now on my shopping list. Haven’t had it for ages.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,702
    Winner is in the eye of the beholder, obvs. The "Debate" didn't add anything to the debate.
  • On a serious point - if niche in the grand scheme...

    CCHQ rebranding their Twitter account “factcheckUK” in a nice neutral shade of purple is an *adopts Liz Truss voice* Absolute Disgrace.

    If you’ve got something to say about Corbyn, have the balls to say it as yourself. Don’t try and mislead people that you’re in any way neutral.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Effectively a dead heat
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Boris did say he will have a policy on social care in the Con manifesto.
  • That poll seems pretty fair tbh
  • glwglw Posts: 9,899
    edited November 2019
    MikeL said:

    Chameleon said:

    Corbyn narrow win, but all his lines will be forgotten within a few hours, whereas 'get brexit done' will stick in the mind.

    That's the key.

    What matters is what's remembered.
    I suspect that if you asked 100 random people to name something memorable that happened in a political debate hardly anyone would have an answer. Those that do would probably mention Nixon vs. JFK, Reagan's answer to Mondale about his age, and maybe Lloyd Bentsen's "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy" retort to Quayle.

    Has any British election TV debate produced a really memorable moment? Nothing springs to mind.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    That poll seems pretty fair tbh

    52/48 would have fulfilled the Banter Heuristic.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,759
    My daughter proposed a drinking game where you had to have a drink every time Boris went back to Brexit. Thank goodness we didn’t take her up on it (hic).
  • glw said:

    MikeL said:

    Chameleon said:

    Corbyn narrow win, but all his lines will be forgotten within a few hours, whereas 'get brexit done' will stick in the mind.

    That's the key.

    What matters is what's remembered.
    I suspect that if you asked random 100 people to name something memorable that happened in a political debate hardly anyone would have an answer. Those that do would probably mention Nixon vs. JFK, Reagan's answer to Mondale about his age, and maybe Lloyd Bentsen's "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy" retort to Quayle.

    Has any British election TV debate produced a really memorable moment? Nothing springs to mind.
    “I agree with Nick”.
  • 51/49 Johnson/Corbyn

    Ouch :wink:
  • “You’re watching ITV - 9 o’clock now, and time for bollocks to go *in* to famous people’s mouths for an hour”.

    I'd challenge the use of the word "famous" there...
  • I think Corbyn was stronger on everything but Brexit. So I guess 51/49 is fair.

    Annoyed because I backed the wrong side and lost by 2 points :(
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Has there been a debate or something?

    I wonder we're still just marking time on the naughty stool and going through the motions.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    nico67 said:

    Regardless of any snap poll Corbyn got what he wanted . I fail to see how this doesn’t improve his image.

    I think the order of the questions helped him, the Brexit part was a struggle , after that he was much better .

    Are you for real? How could that performance improve his image?

    I can't get my head round how anyone could think what you just wrote.
    It's Nico doh.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485
    Demand a recount. I'm sure it was 52:48.....
  • I'm really not sure anyones minds will be swayed much from that.

    So Corbyn loses a 'game change' opportunity.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,578
    TOPPING said:

    Clear Corbyn win by the end in my view, but let's see what the snap poll says.

    Is he in favour of leaving or remaining in the EU, Nick? He is leader of one of our two main political parties. What is his view? Let's let him lead us all.
    Why does he have to answer that question? He is neutral. Leave it to the people to decide and he'll implement it. I think that's fair enough. I certainly don't think it is a killer question though Johnson obviously thinks it is.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,962
    edited November 2019
    MikeL said:

    Boris did say he will have a policy on social care in the Con manifesto.

    And he said nobody should have to sell their home
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Steady as she goes, which i what the blues need.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Could you imagine if that debate had been with all the leaders

    That's Fri 29 Nov :lol:
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Arguably poor for Boris given Con poll lead.

    But demographics of TV viewers may not match whole population.

    But no way did anything significant enough happen to move many votes.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,281

    I may be biased but I think Boris did better than I expected there.

    Johnson had a clear strategy and he executed it well. Corbyn didn't, so Johnson's weaknesses were left untested.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    Getting an STD is probably more popular than Corbyn.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Regardless of any snap poll Corbyn got what he wanted . I fail to see how this doesn’t improve his image.

    I think the order of the questions helped him, the Brexit part was a struggle , after that he was much better .

    Are you for real? How could that performance improve his image?

    I can't get my head round how anyone could think what you just wrote.
    You’re missing the point . He came across more personable and likeable . And I’m not a Corbyn fan .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,759
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Ave_it said:

    Could you imagine if that debate had been with all the leaders

    That's Fri 29 Nov :lol:
    Will most postal votes have been cast by then?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Yeah, makes sense. Labour will trumpet is as showing Corbyn is a lot more liked than his doubters say, Tories will be disappointed its not more, but show they are ahead.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Drutt said:

    Both leaders got people in the crowd shouting 'woo'.

    Can I just repeat that there is no torture too medieval, no bit of Lego too sharp to kneel upon, and no upturned plug too inconveniently located on a nighttime trip to the bathroom for people who shout woo in a debate or comedy audience.

    It's the bellwether signifier of the douchebag.

    They should be put somewhere that Dante cut from the Inferno because it wouldn't get past the censors.

    Worse. They should be on the first tee in Hell, with the guy who shouts out "In the hole!"
    Between the "GEDDIN THE HOLE" guy and the "STOP BREXIT" guy.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    glw said:

    MikeL said:

    Chameleon said:

    Corbyn narrow win, but all his lines will be forgotten within a few hours, whereas 'get brexit done' will stick in the mind.

    That's the key.

    What matters is what's remembered.
    I suspect that if you asked 100 random people to name something memorable that happened in a political debate hardly anyone would have an answer. Those that do would probably mention Nixon vs. JFK, Reagan's answer to Mondale about his age, and maybe Lloyd Bentsen's "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy" retort to Quayle.

    Has any British election TV debate produced a really memorable moment? Nothing springs to mind.
    Not really, brit classics come from interviews usually. But did you threaten to overrule him?
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Ok so an even debate that Johnson just edges on points.

    Who wins the soundbite / meme war?

    I think Johnson by, oh I don't know, an absolute country mile.
  • Good news!

    In Labour's manifesto launch tomorrow they will announce the Nationalisation of leadership debates.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    They will. How could they get worse? How much by will be the thing.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    I know people tend to think Lewis Goodall is a Labour partisan, but he makes a good point on Twitter:

    Corbyn is way behind on satisfaction ratings and way back in the polls. So if 49% of people reckon he won the debate, that's an above-par result.

    Maybe we will see a #corbynsurge after all.
  • Bearing in mind Corbyn is hated, I think he'll be pleased with a loss within MoE
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    nichomar said:

    Effectively a dead heat

    You could have stopped at 'dead'.
  • spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    Naught but Tory propaganda :lol:
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    DavidL said:
    So Corbyn did better relative to the pre-debate expectations
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    nichomar is saying its a dead heat.
    nico67 says Corbyn won it.
    noo hasn't commented yet but will obviously saying Corbyn smashed it.

    Just saying.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    Getting an STD is probably more popular than Corbyn.
    Getting a tax bill from a JC government is more popular
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited November 2019
    Corbyn the winner - he's clearly not the best that Labour has got but more than a match for the mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon that leads the Conservative party (and yes there is much better in the Conservative party too!).
  • I know people tend to think Lewis Goodall is a Labour partisan, but he makes a good point on Twitter:

    Corbyn is way behind on satisfaction ratings and way back in the polls. So if 49% of people reckon he won the debate, that's an above-par result.

    Maybe we will see a #corbynsurge after all.

    My thoughts the same.

    Seems to me 50% of the audience went for "get Brexit done" and the other half groaned.

    The final result makes sense.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    When will people learn, it's about the undecideds
    If the Tories really are far ahead, undecideds breaking mostly Labour wouldn't save them. Personally I simply don't believe they are that far ahead.
  • Flashy4 said:
    I've just agreed with Daisley and it is now officially the end times.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I know people tend to think Lewis Goodall is a Labour partisan, but he makes a good point on Twitter:

    Corbyn is way behind on satisfaction ratings and way back in the polls. So if 49% of people reckon he won the debate, that's an above-par result.

    Maybe we will see a #corbynsurge after all.

    Or, you could say it splits along BXP/tory vs lab/ld/SNP lines almost perfectly
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited November 2019
    God damn that's a load off my anxiety. The polls may still tighten once all the Labour goodies get their airing this week, but I'm no longer afraid of the black swan that Corbyn might have had the ability to dazzle Boris in a one-on-one duel. That's huge - at least for me!
This discussion has been closed.