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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to the first leaders’ TV debate of GE2019 – without a r

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  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    51 v 49 is a good result for Corbyn .

    Bearing in mind Corbyns favourability was in the toilet before this debate .
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    kle4 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    They will. How could they get worse? How much by will be the thing.
    They could stay where they are as people have generally made their mind up on JC. but even if they did improve I can't see it being enough to make a difference.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,652

    Good news!

    In Labour's manifesto launch tomorrow they will announce the Nationalisation of leadership debates.

    Shrills Wallets
  • SKY has Rebecca Long Bailey on and she really is irritating as well as being thick. I do hope Labour replaces Corbyn with her after the General Election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    DavidL said:
    So Corbyn did better relative to the pre-debate expectations
    Depends whose expectations you mean. A great many people, here and elsewhere, said he would do fine, or even well, despite his terrible personal ratings. The expectations were not as low as they might have appeared.
  • I didn’t watch the debate and, strangely enough, I find I don’t care.

    Is this normal?
  • nico67 said:

    51 v 49 is a good result for Corbyn .

    Bearing in mind Corbyns favourability was in the toilet before this debate .

    And it will still be in the toilet afterwards.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    nico67 said:

    51 v 49 is a good result for Corbyn .

    Bearing in mind Corbyns favourability was in the toilet before this debate .

    And still will be. Probably further down the u-bend.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    nico67 said:

    51 v 49 is a good result for Corbyn .

    Bearing in mind Corbyns favourability was in the toilet before this debate .

    I predict they will remain in the toilet after the debate.
  • I may be biased but I think Boris did better than I expected there.

    I think he did better too. But I expected Corbyn to be a bit more animated about austerity etc and I didn’t feel he really got fired up. He also decided to go a bit prepared statement-y and didn’t take the opportunity to take a lot of shots at Boris whereas Boris took the opportunity to stick a few negative jibes in (perhaps a bit too much).
    Yeah, Corbyn stuck to prepared lines, which meant he wasn't always on topic (you could practically see the thought process; "Trust? Well that's close enough to leadership, I'll use my prepared answer for that") whereas Boris took each question as it came, which is why his performance was much less consistent.

    Surprising mental agility from Corbyn though in his Christmas Carol answer
    Corbyn did actually have a few witty grandpa moments as opposed to crotchety old fart ramped up to 100%, which I wasnt expecting.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243

    I know people tend to think Lewis Goodall is a Labour partisan, but he makes a good point on Twitter:

    Corbyn is way behind on satisfaction ratings and way back in the polls. So if 49% of people reckon he won the debate, that's an above-par result.

    Maybe we will see a #corbynsurge after all.

    LOL! A narrow win for Boris turns into a win for Corbyn? riiiiiiiiiiiigggghhhhhht
  • I seriously wonder if "get Brexit done" will become the new strong and stable. Half of the audience were bored of it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Lol, PB Tory hive mind at work? :)
  • Agreed it won’t change much.

    But just one thought: if all you usually see of Corbyn is the tabloid headlines and echo chamber nonsense, he probably came across as a bit less batty than most were expecting, while Boris was pretty much meeting expectations (good catchphrases but full of bluster and a bit rude).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    spudgfsh said:

    kle4 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    They will. How could they get worse? How much by will be the thing.
    They could stay where they are as people have generally made their mind up on JC. but even if they did improve I can't see it being enough to make a difference.
    I honestly don't think they would stay where they are - we know plenty of Labour people are in a bit of state about Corbyn, and a reasonable performance would, I'm sure, see them buck up a bit and say he is doing better again, particularly when the meaningless post debate snap shot puts it neck and neck.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    I seriously wonder if "get Brexit done" will become the new strong and stable. Half of the audience were bored of it.

    Were they, and was it half?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited November 2019
    Never mind the exit poll, will there be any kind of indication of how many people actually sat through that?
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    BluerBlue said:

    God damn that's a load off my anxiety. The polls may still tighten once all the Labour goodies get their airing this week, but I'm no longer afraid of the black swan that Corbyn might have had the ability to dazzle Boris in a one-on-one duel. That's huge - at least for me!

    Absolutely. I'm genuinely terrified of that crazy communist. Buzzing right now which tells me everything I need to know. Corbyn didn't do nearly enough.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    I didn’t watch the debate and, strangely enough, I find I don’t care.

    Is this normal?

    I do believe that is what the rest of the country feel like about politics for most of the time. or so I've heard rumoured anyway
  • kle4 said:

    DavidL said:
    So Corbyn did better relative to the pre-debate expectations
    Depends whose expectations you mean. A great many people, here and elsewhere, said he would do fine, or even well, despite his terrible personal ratings. The expectations were not as low as they might have appeared.
    I think bearing in mind the general public hate Corbyn and they aren't switched on like we are, he'll be happy to get basically half of the vote in a poll like this.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485
    RobD said:

    I seriously wonder if "get Brexit done" will become the new strong and stable. Half of the audience were bored of it.

    Were they, and was it half?
    Just 48%.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,848
    Barnesian said:

    TOPPING said:

    Clear Corbyn win by the end in my view, but let's see what the snap poll says.

    Is he in favour of leaving or remaining in the EU, Nick? He is leader of one of our two main political parties. What is his view? Let's let him lead us all.
    Why does he have to answer that question? He is neutral. Leave it to the people to decide and he'll implement it. I think that's fair enough. I certainly don't think it is a killer question though Johnson obviously thinks it is.
    It is a killer question because he is the leader of the Labour Party and it is the most important issue facing our country.

    Or why not a referendum on privatisation in the NHS?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,519
    Flashy4 said:
    No, I definitely can't imagine that. Odd idea.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Thanks everyone for watching it, so I didn't have to.

    The burdens we bear. Just to talk myself up, I've also read and summarised the Green Party Manifesto across 4 posts earlier so no one else has to as well.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,281

    On a serious point - if niche in the grand scheme...

    CCHQ rebranding their Twitter account “factcheckUK” in a nice neutral shade of purple is an *adopts Liz Truss voice* Absolute Disgrace.

    If you’ve got something to say about Corbyn, have the balls to say it as yourself. Don’t try and mislead people that you’re in any way neutral.

    Pretending to be something you're not is the definition of a fraud. We've lost all self-respect for ourselves to let politicians get away with this sort of thing.
  • kle4 said:

    DavidL said:
    So Corbyn did better relative to the pre-debate expectations
    Depends whose expectations you mean. A great many people, here and elsewhere, said he would do fine, or even well, despite his terrible personal ratings. The expectations were not as low as they might have appeared.
    I thought Corbyn would win, if I’m absolutely honest. I’m surprised by that poll. Usually the opposition do well in these sort of debates.

    I’m afraid I don’t subscribe to the “a draw is good for Jezza” narrative. I thought he did fine, apart from some real wobbliness at the start. But I’m not sure a draw is good enough.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited November 2019

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:
    So Corbyn did better relative to the pre-debate expectations
    Depends whose expectations you mean. A great many people, here and elsewhere, said he would do fine, or even well, despite his terrible personal ratings. The expectations were not as low as they might have appeared.
    I think bearing in mind the general public hate Corbyn and they aren't switched on like we are, he'll be happy to get basically half of the vote in a poll like this.
    Cool.

    800 people thought he did well. Only 17 million odd others who think he's a waste of human skin.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    kle4 said:

    Thanks everyone for watching it, so I didn't have to.

    The burdens we bear. Just to talk myself up, I've also read and summarised the Green Party Manifesto across 4 posts earlier so no one else has to as well.
    Doing God's work.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243

    I seriously wonder if "get Brexit done" will become the new strong and stable. Half of the audience were bored of it.

    They've focused grouped the crap out of Get Brexit Done. They know it works and they know it's working.

    "Strong and Stable" never worked because Theresa could never sell it. Boris can sell Get Brexit Done (is selling it)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    I seriously wonder if "get Brexit done" will become the new strong and stable. Half of the audience were bored of it.

    The Labour half.

    Honestly he hit it a bit too clumsily in several questions, he should have dialled it back a touch while still making it his main theme, but the groans at the end were just plain stupid - it was totally reasonable to make that point as a summation.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,281
    kle4 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    They will. How could they get worse? How much by will be the thing.
    The graph doesn't compare like with like because we haven't had the final Ipsos-MORI poll before the election.
  • kle4 said:

    DavidL said:
    So Corbyn did better relative to the pre-debate expectations
    Depends whose expectations you mean. A great many people, here and elsewhere, said he would do fine, or even well, despite his terrible personal ratings. The expectations were not as low as they might have appeared.
    I think bearing in mind the general public hate Corbyn and they aren't switched on like we are, he'll be happy to get basically half of the vote in a poll like this.
    Cool.

    800 people thought he did well. Only 17 million odd others who think he's a waste of human skin.
    It's a representative sample.

    I think it's all to play for quite honestly - but we'll see in a few weeks.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .
  • kle4 said:

    I seriously wonder if "get Brexit done" will become the new strong and stable. Half of the audience were bored of it.

    The Labour half.

    Honestly he hit it a bit too clumsily in several questions, he should have dialled it back a touch while still making it his main theme, but the groans at the end were just plain stupid - it was totally reasonable to make that point as a summation.
    Was it half Labour/half Tory? I thought the middle was undecided but might have got that wrong
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    The audience knew what we know.
    Johnson is an utter liar, and Corbyn ineffectual.

    In the end, hating both, I thought Corbyn came out with surprising passion and dignity, ie outperformed my low expectations. Johnson was pretty much at par.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,759

    DavidL said:
    So Corbyn did better relative to the pre-debate expectations
    Possibly. I thought he didn’t look quite right. His right eye was funny and his lens on that side looked blurred. His glasses were sitting at an odd angle as well. It crossed my mind he had had a mild stroke. But he spoke as well as he normally does.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485

    I know people tend to think Lewis Goodall is a Labour partisan, but he makes a good point on Twitter:

    Corbyn is way behind on satisfaction ratings and way back in the polls. So if 49% of people reckon he won the debate, that's an above-par result.

    Maybe we will see a #corbynsurge after all.

    My thoughts the same.

    Seems to me 50% of the audience went for "get Brexit done" and the other half groaned.

    The final result makes sense.
    And how much of that audience was from outside the metropolis?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Thanks everyone for watching it, so I didn't have to.

    The burdens we bear. Just to talk myself up, I've also read and summarised the Green Party Manifesto across 4 posts earlier so no one else has to as well.
    Doing God's work.
    I only worship at the church of OGH, and his high priest, TSE :)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    This is the first election where I pretty much don’t give a toss. The Tories *are* ahead by a country mile, and it is sickening.
  • I know people tend to think Lewis Goodall is a Labour partisan, but he makes a good point on Twitter:

    Corbyn is way behind on satisfaction ratings and way back in the polls. So if 49% of people reckon he won the debate, that's an above-par result.

    Maybe we will see a #corbynsurge after all.

    My thoughts the same.

    Seems to me 50% of the audience went for "get Brexit done" and the other half groaned.

    The final result makes sense.
    And how much of that audience was from outside the metropolis?
    Who knows.

    I'm satisfied with Corbyn's performance - and he'll have done better than most expected, I think.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Flashy4 said:
    No, I definitely can't imagine that. Odd idea.
    I think it's irony - or sarcasm.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485
    nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .

    Keep whistling. The nights are dark and cold......
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited November 2019
    nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .

    The PB Tories aren't the brightest peas in the pod as I have said on numerous occasions. They're fairly ugly too! :smiley:

    Expect the next set of polls to show a narrowing gap.
  • I didn’t watch the debate and, strangely enough, I find I don’t care.

    Is this normal?

    I am ruing the loss of an hour of my life. Although I did do some stuff on the PC while it was on, including ordering some new running shoes, so it wasn't completely wasted
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,848
    kle4 said:

    Thanks everyone for watching it, so I didn't have to.

    The burdens we bear. Just to talk myself up, I've also read and summarised the Green Party Manifesto across 4 posts earlier so no one else has to as well.
    Thank you that was very useful.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    kle4 said:

    I seriously wonder if "get Brexit done" will become the new strong and stable. Half of the audience were bored of it.

    The Labour half.

    Honestly he hit it a bit too clumsily in several questions, he should have dialled it back a touch while still making it his main theme, but the groans at the end were just plain stupid - it was totally reasonable to make that point as a summation.
    Was it half Labour/half Tory? I thought the middle was undecided but might have got that wrong
    It was a joke. It was a bad look for Boris and a sign he'd hit that point too repetitively for the audience, and so now in video clips, but there's nothing wrong with a simple, repetitive political slogan. We'll here 'for the many not the few' a bazillion times this election campaign too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    murali_s said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .

    The PB Tories aren't the brightest peas in the pod as I have said on numerous occasions. They're fairly ugly too! :smiley:

    Expect the next set of polls to show a narrowing gap.
    Oi, cheeky bugger. :o
  • nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .


    How many points of improvement in his leadership ratings do you predict as a result?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    murali_s said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .

    The PB Tories aren't the brightest peas in the pod as I have said on numerous occasions. They're fairly ugly too! :smiley:

    Expect the next set of polls to show a narrowing gap.
    Given how big the gap is with many pollsters I would think so!

    Slightly bad timing for the Tories to get some really big bumps, it will make any drop look worse than it is.
  • ArthurArthur Posts: 63
    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    The image says the scores are from "immediately before" an election, and someone has written at the top "heading into" an election. Nice try. There's a long way to go yet... What's the biggest min-to-max spread a leader's ratings have had in an election period?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089

    I didn’t watch the debate and, strangely enough, I find I don’t care.

    Is this normal?

    I am ruing the loss of an hour of my life. Although I did do some stuff on the PC while it was on, including ordering some new running shoes, so it wasn't completely wasted
    What did you go for ?
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    I seriously wonder if "get Brexit done" will become the new strong and stable. Half of the audience were bored of it.

    The half that want to remain.
    The clue is in "Studio Audience".
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    Just think... 2 debates down only 12 more to go!

    (ok people won't care about 5 of them outside their bit of the UK)
  • nico67 said:

    51 v 49 is a good result for Corbyn .

    Bearing in mind Corbyns favourability was in the toilet before this debate .

    Not really - He only got 49 out of 60 non con voters.

  • Xtrain said:

    nichomar is saying its a dead heat.
    nico67 says Corbyn won it.
    noo hasn't commented yet but will obviously saying Corbyn smashed it.

    Just saying.

    noo hasn't commented yet but will obviously saying Corbyn smashed it greetings, Islamophobes.
  • May I suggest waiting for viewing figures in the morning? If they are lucky, five million, with a few more at the end as folk tuned in for “I’m a Celeb”.

    Secondary question is “how will it be clipped for the 10pm news”. The Boris question has to feature. Which of Corbyn’s points? The NHS/US trade deal. Maybe, but the Boris denial was very passionate and will be there too.

    Hmmm
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited November 2019
    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .

    The PB Tories aren't the brightest peas in the pod as I have said on numerous occasions. They're fairly ugly too! :smiley:

    Expect the next set of polls to show a narrowing gap.
    Oi, cheeky bugger. :o
    I'm mellowing out in my old age. I did say "fairly"!
  • I'm surprised given it was Boris's obvious line and the media's line for months that Corbyn didn't have a clear answer on the Brexit question in what is reasonably by many being called The Brexit Election.

    He needs to get an actual answer PDQ.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Arthur said:

    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    The image says the scores are from "immediately before" an election, and someone has written at the top "heading into" an election. Nice try. There's a long way to go yet... What's the biggest min-to-max spread a leader's ratings have had in an election period?
    His rating started going up from before the campaign started in 2017. It has yet to improve this time around.
  • Xtrain said:

    I seriously wonder if "get Brexit done" will become the new strong and stable. Half of the audience were bored of it.

    The half that want to remain.
    The clue is in "Studio Audience".
    It wasn't divided that way. It was Labour/Tory. Corby needs the Labour Leavers back - and I wonder if that might have done it.

    We will see.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    Arthur said:

    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    The image says the scores are from "immediately before" an election, and someone has written at the top "heading into" an election. Nice try. There's a long way to go yet... What's the biggest min-to-max spread a leader's ratings have had in an election period?
    TBF it shows how much of a mountain Corbyn has to climb. He did climb a long way last time but that was mainly because TM made him look better by being so ineffective and robotic
  • Pulpstar said:

    I didn’t watch the debate and, strangely enough, I find I don’t care.

    Is this normal?

    I am ruing the loss of an hour of my life. Although I did do some stuff on the PC while it was on, including ordering some new running shoes, so it wasn't completely wasted
    What did you go for ?
    Inov8 Roclites for light trail stuff. They have some cushioning as well so work well on mixed terrain, a bit of road etc. I've got out and out trail shoes (Inov8s as well) but nothing intermediate. They were also only £51 :-)
  • nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .

    You’re just spinning in the opposite direction.

    Look, I try to be objective as I can be. I didn’t think Corbyn did badly (other than at the start) but he didn’t knock it out of the park, and I think he needed to. I do think Boris became a broken record at the end, but also did better than I expected.

    I suspect CCHQ will take a tie, and Corbyn will be glad he didn’t crash and burn. But I doubt it will have any massive effect either way.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,848
    murali_s said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .

    The PB Tories aren't the brightest peas in the pod as I have said on numerous occasions. They're fairly ugly too! :smiley:

    Expect the next set of polls to show a narrowing gap.
    To channel Trainspotting. They aren't the brightest peas in the pod and yet in the polls the Labour Party is miles behind the party the PB Tories support.

    Go figure.
  • RobD said:

    Arthur said:

    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    The image says the scores are from "immediately before" an election, and someone has written at the top "heading into" an election. Nice try. There's a long way to go yet... What's the biggest min-to-max spread a leader's ratings have had in an election period?
    His rating started going up from before the campaign started in 2017. It has yet to improve this time around.
    It has improved though. Kantar showed earlier it has gone up.
  • nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Regardless of any snap poll Corbyn got what he wanted . I fail to see how this doesn’t improve his image.

    I think the order of the questions helped him, the Brexit part was a struggle , after that he was much better .

    Are you for real? How could that performance improve his image?

    I can't get my head round how anyone could think what you just wrote.
    You’re missing the point . He came across more personable and likeable . And I’m not a Corbyn fan .
    Corbyn was actually OK, and I am someone who thinks he is an absolute pillock 99% of the time.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    It's incredible that these debates, if they happen at all, are not chaired by Andrew Neil.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,736
    Boris let Corbyn slightly off the hook after the first 20mins or so.

    His point about Brexit, although important, isn't the only substantial blow he can land on Corbyn. To play on just this issue was a bit of a lost opportunity.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    BluerBlue said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .


    How many points of improvement in his leadership ratings do you predict as a result?
    I’m not predicting anything . But really how can this debate have harmed Corbyn , he came into it with dire leader ratings and 49% liked his performance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,327

    Xtrain said:

    I seriously wonder if "get Brexit done" will become the new strong and stable. Half of the audience were bored of it.

    The half that want to remain.
    The clue is in "Studio Audience".
    It wasn't divided that way. It was Labour/Tory. Corby needs the Labour Leavers back
    Do they not matter in the other 630 seats, or have you already written those off?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    I'm surprised given it was Boris's obvious line and the media's line for months that Corbyn didn't have a clear answer on the Brexit question in what is reasonably by many being called The Brexit Election.

    He needs to get an actual answer PDQ.

    especially if he's going to be laughed at for his current policy. it looked painful every time he trotted out the 'renegotiate and referendum' line. especially when being asked his personal view on brexit.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    When are postal votes likely to hit doormats?
  • Pulpstar said:
    I'm not sure debates have mattered since 2010 to be honest.
  • Good evening all.

    Did not watch the debate but if Boris just edged it on the poll that's good enough for me.

    I do find myself in the strange position of agreeing wholeheartedly with BJO in that I share his view of Gold Digger. I've binge watched it and thought it superb. Any PBer wanting a few hours off politics should give it a try.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,848

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Regardless of any snap poll Corbyn got what he wanted . I fail to see how this doesn’t improve his image.

    I think the order of the questions helped him, the Brexit part was a struggle , after that he was much better .

    Are you for real? How could that performance improve his image?

    I can't get my head round how anyone could think what you just wrote.
    You’re missing the point . He came across more personable and likeable . And I’m not a Corbyn fan .
    Corbyn was actually OK, and I am someone who thinks he is an absolute pillock 99% of the time.
    Don't wholly disagree. Both were doing their reasonable man impression. No latin from Johnson, no shouty red face from Corbyn. But the disadvantage of that approach was that on subjects they weren't absolutely on top of (Brexit for Jezza, everything else for Bozza) they appeared somewhat weak.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    edited November 2019

    RobD said:

    Arthur said:

    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    The image says the scores are from "immediately before" an election, and someone has written at the top "heading into" an election. Nice try. There's a long way to go yet... What's the biggest min-to-max spread a leader's ratings have had in an election period?
    His rating started going up from before the campaign started in 2017. It has yet to improve this time around.
    It has improved though. Kantar showed earlier it has gone up.
    By a net of 1, margin of error, compared with the huge deficit he has. Anyway, I'm specifically talking about the MORI series. He went from -41 (late March 2017) to -11 (late May 2017) in the run up to the 2017 election. He was at -60 in mid September 2019, unchanged in late October 2019.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    When are postal votes likely to hit doormats?

    Around next Tuesday I understand.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,652
    RoyalBlue said:

    When are postal votes likely to hit doormats?

    29th November
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,327
    nico67 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .


    How many points of improvement in his leadership ratings do you predict as a result?
    I’m not predicting anything . But really how can this debate have harmed Corbyn , he came into it with dire leader ratings and 49% liked his performance.
    But even a Labour loyalist is admitting he lost. To get anything out of it, he needed to win and win big. This far behind, he cannot afford to be losing more ground.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    RoyalBlue said:

    When are postal votes likely to hit doormats?

    From next Tuesday, according to the card I had today.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243
    edited November 2019
    FTPA meaning the election campaign drags on for weeks and weeks and weeks and multiple TV debates have combined to take the fun out of general elections IMO.

    What's wrong with a relativey short 3-4 week election campaign and John Major's soap box? ;)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,578
    Flashy4 said:

    Boil it down - Jezza couldn’t answer on Brexit - the end.

    TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    TOPPING said:

    Clear Corbyn win by the end in my view, but let's see what the snap poll says.

    Is he in favour of leaving or remaining in the EU, Nick? He is leader of one of our two main political parties. What is his view? Let's let him lead us all.
    Why does he have to answer that question? He is neutral. Leave it to the people to decide and he'll implement it. I think that's fair enough. I certainly don't think it is a killer question though Johnson obviously thinks it is.
    It is a killer question because he is the leader of the Labour Party and it is the most important issue facing our country.

    Or why not a referendum on privatisation in the NHS?
    I suspect he will agree a free vote for Labour MPs and keep above the fray himself. That's exactly what Wilson did in 1975.

    "In a 1975 pamphlet Prime Minister Harold Wilson said: "I ask you to use your vote. For it is your vote that will now decide. The Government will accept your verdict."[3] The pamphlet also said: "Now the time has come for you to decide. The Government will accept your decision — whichever way it goes.""

  • Corbyn being OK means he's better than most of the public think he is, which is a win for him - I think that is how he will perceive it.

    It'll also give the Labour members a kickstart they need.

    I just wasn't convinced by Johnson on anything other than on Brexit - which he won on. But it was tiring by the end.
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited November 2019
    nico67 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .


    How many points of improvement in his leadership ratings do you predict as a result?
    I’m not predicting anything . But really how can this debate have harmed Corbyn , he came into it with dire leader ratings and 49% liked his performance.
    I very much doubt it will change his ratings much at all - which is terrible for him, as he needs to improve fast.

    Not to mention that the 49% who think Corbyn did well will be voting for several different parties, whereas most of the 51% will be voting for only one...
  • RoyalBlue said:

    When are postal votes likely to hit doormats?

    26th November from our authority
  • ArthurArthur Posts: 63
    TOPPING said:

    murali_s said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .

    The PB Tories aren't the brightest peas in the pod as I have said on numerous occasions. They're fairly ugly too! :smiley:

    Expect the next set of polls to show a narrowing gap.
    To channel Trainspotting. They aren't the brightest peas in the pod and yet in the polls the Labour Party is miles behind the party the PB Tories support.

    Go figure.
    Perhaps non-Tories such as Isaac Levido and Dominic Cummings are better at running the Tories' campaign for them than any real Tories would be?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    nico67 said:

    Hilarious to see some of the spin from Tories in here .

    Given they’re about 10 to 15 points ahead in the polls and Corbyn had a minus 40 odd favourability the fact he scored well with 49% of those watching according to the poll will be a win for him .


    How many points of improvement in his leadership ratings do you predict as a result?
    I’m not predicting anything . But really how can this debate have harmed Corbyn , he came into it with dire leader ratings and 49% liked his performance.
    But even a Labour loyalist is admitting he lost. To get anything out of it, he needed to win and win big. This far behind, he cannot afford to be losing more ground.
    And a lot on here thought Boris would tank . And he didn't. Boris went into this the underdog in expectation - not Corbyn.

    Corbyn did these debates last time. He needed to knock it out of the park. He didn't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Given its money splashing time and austerity is over, the next recession will come as a shock to people who think the times ahead will be all milk and honey.
    TOPPING said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Regardless of any snap poll Corbyn got what he wanted . I fail to see how this doesn’t improve his image.

    I think the order of the questions helped him, the Brexit part was a struggle , after that he was much better .

    Are you for real? How could that performance improve his image?

    I can't get my head round how anyone could think what you just wrote.
    You’re missing the point . He came across more personable and likeable . And I’m not a Corbyn fan .
    Corbyn was actually OK, and I am someone who thinks he is an absolute pillock 99% of the time.
    Don't wholly disagree. Both were doing their reasonable man impression. No latin from Johnson, no shouty red face from Corbyn. But the disadvantage of that approach was that on subjects they weren't absolutely on top of (Brexit for Jezza, everything else for Bozza) they appeared somewhat weak.
    I think this is the soundest summary. I think Boris's best non-Brexit moment was refuting the Corbyn claims about what he'd do with the NHS, as it was angry but not ranty, while Corbyn's best moment was, ironically, about what leadership means, about listening to people.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,848
    Barnesian said:

    Flashy4 said:

    Boil it down - Jezza couldn’t answer on Brexit - the end.

    TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    TOPPING said:

    Clear Corbyn win by the end in my view, but let's see what the snap poll says.

    Is he in favour of leaving or remaining in the EU, Nick? He is leader of one of our two main political parties. What is his view? Let's let him lead us all.
    Why does he have to answer that question? He is neutral. Leave it to the people to decide and he'll implement it. I think that's fair enough. I certainly don't think it is a killer question though Johnson obviously thinks it is.
    It is a killer question because he is the leader of the Labour Party and it is the most important issue facing our country.

    Or why not a referendum on privatisation in the NHS?
    I suspect he will agree a free vote for Labour MPs and keep above the fray himself. That's exactly what Wilson did in 1975.

    "In a 1975 pamphlet Prime Minister Harold Wilson said: "I ask you to use your vote. For it is your vote that will now decide. The Government will accept your verdict."[3] The pamphlet also said: "Now the time has come for you to decide. The Government will accept your decision — whichever way it goes.""

    So why not a referendum on privatisation in the NHS?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Arthur said:

    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    The image says the scores are from "immediately before" an election, and someone has written at the top "heading into" an election. Nice try. There's a long way to go yet... What's the biggest min-to-max spread a leader's ratings have had in an election period?
    His rating started going up from before the campaign started in 2017. It has yet to improve this time around.
    It has improved though. Kantar showed earlier it has gone up.
    By a net of 1, margin of error, compared with the huge deficit he has. Anyway, I'm specifically talking about the MORI series. He went from -41 (late March 2017) to -11 (late May 2017) in the run up to the 2017 election. He was at -60 in mid September 2019, unchanged in late October 2019.
    he was aided by the way that TM looked so wooden (and by the Tory manifesto). Just look at how much TMs ratings fell as JCs rose. Boris's failing are already priced into the ratings and may go down but not in the same manner.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485
    It should have come from a working men's club in Stoke.

    Be worth seeing what they'd laugh at, what they would treat with contempt.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited November 2019
    We need Byronics opinion.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,652
    TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    Flashy4 said:

    Boil it down - Jezza couldn’t answer on Brexit - the end.

    TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    TOPPING said:

    Clear Corbyn win by the end in my view, but let's see what the snap poll says.

    Is he in favour of leaving or remaining in the EU, Nick? He is leader of one of our two main political parties. What is his view? Let's let him lead us all.
    Why does he have to answer that question? He is neutral. Leave it to the people to decide and he'll implement it. I think that's fair enough. I certainly don't think it is a killer question though Johnson obviously thinks it is.
    It is a killer question because he is the leader of the Labour Party and it is the most important issue facing our country.

    Or why not a referendum on privatisation in the NHS?
    I suspect he will agree a free vote for Labour MPs and keep above the fray himself. That's exactly what Wilson did in 1975.

    "In a 1975 pamphlet Prime Minister Harold Wilson said: "I ask you to use your vote. For it is your vote that will now decide. The Government will accept your verdict."[3] The pamphlet also said: "Now the time has come for you to decide. The Government will accept your decision — whichever way it goes.""

    So why not a referendum on privatisation in the NHS?
    Result binding on all future Governments.
  • GIN1138 said:

    I seriously wonder if "get Brexit done" will become the new strong and stable. Half of the audience were bored of it.

    They've focused grouped the crap out of Get Brexit Done. They know it works and they know it's working.

    "Strong and Stable" never worked because Theresa could never sell it. Boris can sell Get Brexit Done (is selling it)
    Get Brexit Done is the new Long Term Economic Plan from 2015 that got said to the point of people being sick of it, but also got the Tories a majority.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    edited November 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Arthur said:

    spudgfsh said:

    This image is why I doubt any of the debates will make much difference unless they can improve JCs ratings

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1196861090245861376

    The image says the scores are from "immediately before" an election, and someone has written at the top "heading into" an election. Nice try. There's a long way to go yet... What's the biggest min-to-max spread a leader's ratings have had in an election period?
    His rating started going up from before the campaign started in 2017. It has yet to improve this time around.
    It has improved though. Kantar showed earlier it has gone up.
    By a net of 1, margin of error, compared with the huge deficit he has. Anyway, I'm specifically talking about the MORI series. He went from -41 (late March 2017) to -11 (late May 2017) in the run up to the 2017 election. He was at -60 in mid September 2019, unchanged in late October 2019.
    he was aided by the way that TM looked so wooden (and by the Tory manifesto). Just look at how much TMs ratings fell as JCs rose. Boris's failing are already priced into the ratings and may go down but not in the same manner.
    I should have also mentioned that Johnson's rating has improved from -18 to +2 between mid September 2019 and late October 2019
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    The big result of the night: Wales qualify for the European Championships.

    The rest is noise.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,281
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:
    So Corbyn did better relative to the pre-debate expectations
    Possibly. I thought he didn’t look quite right. His right eye was funny and his lens on that side looked blurred. His glasses were sitting at an odd angle as well. It crossed my mind he had had a mild stroke. But he spoke as well as he normally does.
    It's how David Miliband becomes the next Prime Minister.

    Corbyn passes away peacefully in his sleep.
    The NEC turn to respected elder statesman Ed Miliband to lead Labour through the rest of the campaign.
    The British public, nostalgic for the more innocent days of 2015, decide they like the idea of a Coalition of Chaos with Miliband compared to getting Brexit done.
    After the election Johnson remains PM while negotiations drag on between Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems.
    David Miliband wins the delayed vote in the Islington North constituency.
    David Miliband is then the only candidate to pass the nominations threshold for the Labour leadership.
    Two days later he enters Number 10 to a crowd proudly waving their EU-mandated straight bananas.

    Naturally I hope that Corbyn enjoys a long and healthy retirement on his allotment, but it's not the most implausible scenario.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    We need Byronics opinion.

    Do they have wifi in Antarctica? :p
  • GIN1138 said:

    I seriously wonder if "get Brexit done" will become the new strong and stable. Half of the audience were bored of it.

    They've focused grouped the crap out of Get Brexit Done. They know it works and they know it's working.

    "Strong and Stable" never worked because Theresa could never sell it. Boris can sell Get Brexit Done (is selling it)
    Get Brexit Done is the new Long Term Economic Plan from 2015 that got said to the point of people being sick of it, but also got the Tories a majority.
    While out canvassing it’s the most repeated line back from those saying they’ll vote conservative.
This discussion has been closed.