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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to the first leaders’ TV debate of GE2019 – without a remainer
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I’m thinking how much better it would be at running the country than either of these losers.
The betting market does indeed think there is a 64% probability of a Con overall majority. But the poll is saying that '22% of those polled predicted Con overall Majority' The respondents are being asked to pick the most likely winner, not give an estimate of the probability. The two are not the same thing at all.
In other words, the bar is set very low for this one. Who will disappoint the least?
But he will hopefully wait until December 12th and do it via the ballot box rather than live on stage.
The starter to #MegaPollingSaturday3!
It’s very convenient for me. I was teaching about Richard III earlier today and I explained why he was such an idiot to deny having planned to marry his niece. Immediately everyone gossiped about how the king had denied planning an extraordinary act of incest.
Now I have an up to the minute example as well.
*I reserve the right to withdraw these remarks if this unlikely event happens
360 up (8 refusals 5 Corbyn 3 BREXIT) and I am officially knackered despite only being the driver.
My spell as silver van man is over.
2017 numbers for comparison 400
Long may she reign.
And then the polls will arrive at the weekend and it will have absolutely ni difference whatsoever.
Really.
I will get nothing from this debate.
On indyref2, he can't keep both happy.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
Note that I have dropped the Wales part of my model. It didn't reflect the regional swing and was too harsh on the Tories. I am now using a combination of Baxter, Flavible and MRP for Wales.
I have made the additive and multiplication models 50/50.
I have updated with the two polls tonight.
Con/Lab/LD
England 311/194/27
Wales 15/20/1
Scotland 5/1/5
Total 331/215/33
Apart from Gallowgate and OGH
Nothing to do with Super Jo or Jezza?
Welcome to PB, btw (assuming this isn't your fourth account after the password debacle!)
Boris = "filthy disgusting b*st*rd"
Corbyn = "useless idiot"
I think SuperJo won it, by virtue of not appearing.
He has managed to pivot out of the 'retirement' they had planned for him in the new year. Outstanding debating skills.
Your leader is a voter repellent hypocritical lightweight you should get rid and get Layla in.
No way LD vote would be nose diving faster than a Beoing 737 Max without Super Jo.
These are not potential presidents, they are simply individuals seeking election in their constituencies and hoping that they can then persuade enough fellow MPs to make them PM. We should stop Americanising our electoral system in this way.
Rant over... for now.
Really.
The media love the debates because they get to be the center of attention and make it look like they are calling the shots and making the politicians dance to their tune - look what happened to Theresa when she ducked out of them.
At times I think the media believe general elections are just about them pushing around politicians... while the public is shut out of the process.
Voters finally gets their say on 12/12/19 but until then GBP are out in the cold. Which I think is partly why 2015, 2017 and now 2019 general elections have seemed to lackluster.
First impressions
92 pages – a bit chunky, but bookmarked to the various sections, which I don’t recall others doing last time, so that’s convenient. No financial tables at the back like last time, which is a shame, but at least they attempt to explain their financing. The title ‘If not now, when?’ seems double edged, since given their likely vote share and seat numbers, are they not implicitly admitting it will be ‘never’ for them and their policies, if it is not now?
The executive summary of their five major themes (Green New Deal, Remain and Transform, Grow Democracy, The Green Quality of Life Guarantee, and The New Deal for Tax and Spend) is useful and well presented in ensuring it should be easy to remember at least one key detail of each theme even if you don’t get past page 3.
Inter chapter sections on what elected Greens are delivering is a bit underwhelming, but not a bad idea.
Overall the theme is being very transformational, although like all parties they are self-righteous. From the forward ‘The Green Party has always been on the right side of history and you can trust us to get the future right too’. Yes, the Green Party are always right.
Oh, I'm not done.
We live in a post-satire society.
Johnson is also a useless idiot.
And Corbyn is also a filthy disgusting bastard.
I'm not dismayed by it. It's nothing to do with Jo but a function of successful targeting.
Green New Deal
Business will be incentivized to lead the way on the new deal apparently, but not clear how. Power and resources to local government it says, a common ideal, but what if devolved governments and local government do not want to follow the ideals? This section is heavy on promising that there will be huge transformation, and promises 100bn a year for that, but at least in this section its unclear why that amount, and it makes the huge transformation sound very easy. But it’s saying nice things for the most part.
Good luck with transforming the planning system to make wind and other power generation easier – taking on the NIMBY’s!
Connect our electricity supply with Europe. I don’t know if we do this to some extent already, or how feasible it is, but it sounds cool.
‘Ban fracking and other unconventional forms of fossil fuel extraction, now and forever’. What’s a conventional form of fossil fuel extraction? Mining? Why is that ok because it is conventional?
All homes to improve insultation. 100,000 new council homes a year (cynic in me says why that number and not a bit more or a bit less? Just that they needed to get to 6 figures to sound good). Secure, lifetime tenancies for the council homes.
New developments to have safe pedestrian access to shops and schools, or are ‘within 1km of a local rail, tube or tram station, or 500m of a high frequency bus service’. That seems awfully close.
Going big on ‘a new golden age of train’. But still cautious enough to say railways will be taken into public ownership over a period of 10 years. As predicted stopping the building of new runways and ‘all’ increased road capacity.
A network of electrical vehicle charging points – that does seem needed.
Promoting stay at home working - and employers reimbursing working hours heating, electricity and wi fi costs.
Plenty on farming practices, makes sense given their strength in the SW I’d guess. ‘Legislate for a right to food giving everyone access to healthy, nutritious, locally grown food’ for schools though?
And the big one – Universal Basic income. Paid to everyone, regardless of employment status. In my experience its people who work on lower incomes who hate this idea, but whatever.
If he does badly, it might well be the end.
Although I think Johnson running away from one of the debates isn't a great idea.
Poch sacked.
https://twitter.com/SpursOfficial/status/1196874518951796736
Inevitable given he's less successful than George Graham and Juande Ramos
Yawn – ‘the social contract is broken and the power game is rigged’. Student Common room stuff.
I get what they are saying about Leave not fixing people’s issues, but it seems very convenient that the Greens say they recognize why people voted for Brexit, and not one of them is that some people wanted to leave. The Greens channeling Daenerys Targaryen – people don’t know their own minds, but the Greens do.
Live streaming of meetings of the European Central Bank – now that’ll be a thrill ride! But a lot of these EU wide plans (there's loads to reform the EU) are not in the Greens’ power. But they do agree with not doing the Strasbourg move.
‘Reducing migration in the long term’. Never expected to see that. Needs EU wide minimum income guarantee, EU wide minimum wages, just for starters. The latter sounds impossible to me.
FPTP to go, of course, but for local councils they want all councils to vote every 2 years to elect 50% of its members. I think voting by thirds is dumb, and this is a bit better I guess, but forcing those that elect every 4 years to change seems at odds with their words on devolving things to localities, to trust them. Also to force them to move from Cabinet systems to Committee systems. Again, not a problem wanting more Committee systems back, but ‘requiring’ it?
Referendum on a Cornish assembly
Chancellor of the Exchequer to be supplanted from No. 11 by a Carbon Chancellor
Scrap the Home Office. Rename the Ministry of Defence to the Ministry for Security and Peace.
Overhaul of parliamentary language to make it self explanatory – this is just waffle. You can make things easier, I am sure, but its passing legislation, it’s going to get a bit legalistic at times.
Green Quality of life Guarantee
I’m starting to flag now, but its basically money money money for everyone. No one to be paid more than 10x that of the lowest paid worker, and no bonus more than the annual salary of the lowest paid worker.
Replacing Ofsted.
Not abolishing private schools, which surprises me.
Windrush day – a new bank holiday to celebrate migration.
New press regime to allow women to make complaints about media coverage encouraging misogyny.
Support employers to explire the benefits of offering menstruation and menopausal leave to workers – surprised this is not going to be a requirement.
Pardon small scale drug dealers. Cannabis legal, of course.
New deal for tax and spend
Council tax and business rates abolished – Land Value Tax . charge landowner a proportion of capital value of the land each year (est at 1.4% of current values)
Trident, new roads, airports, HS2 axed
Says extra operational expenditure of 141.5bn a year. Not sure that adds up given the 100bn a year on Green new deal.
Done.
https://selectra.co.uk/energy/news/policy/brexit-energy
We all know he is North Poor
South Rich