politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base
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Figures aplenty from Ashcroft. Note inter alia:
"For voters as a whole, the most popular answer [to "What is the most important thing to happen?] is “more funding for public services like the NHS, schools, social care and the police,” followed by “action on a specific issue I care about other than Brexit,” and “having a good local MP, whatever their views on national politics.” “Getting Brexit done” was fourth overall..."
Now this isn't exactly fair, since that second option lumps everyone's favourite hobby-horses together. But it illustrates why some of us are finding that Brexit doesn't get raised on the doorstep much.
Note also that LibDem voters prefer Corbyn to Johnson by a 2-1 margin. But I'm cherry-picking - you'll find things to please Tories too.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/11/election-priorities-best-pm-preferred-government-trust-on-the-economy-best-party-on-brexit-introducing-my-general-election-dashboard/#more-16190
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Did find somebody today who hadn't voted since sticking his X against the Referendum Party.
Thought he would probably get off his arse and vote for Boris.0 -
HITLER ?? !!TOPPING said:Is this one of those Hitler looked so cute when he was sleeping things?
Between you and @Gabs2 we really are going some on the 'AS' this afternoon.
No, look, quite a tart joke actually, but I suspect you did not watch the video, so perhaps we ought to leave it there.
Give it a whirl, though, if you have a minute later on. You might be pleasantly surprised.0 -
Yes, I'm sure SKY will be trying to keep this one under wraps...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not sure if Sky have discussed this poll yet but I can imagine some very sour facesGIN1138 said:
Stay At Home Party?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not sure where the missing 3% has gonecontrarian said:
In that poll, labour is squeezing the libs in equal measure, but the Cons are only getting three of the BXP's six.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
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So we have one poll with the Conservatives 14 points in front and one with them 6 (or as Nick Palmer pointed out, 5.5) points in front.camel said:
In the absence of anyone else mentioning the "squeeze"Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
The squeeze is on!
What we can we conclude from this? Given MOEs, the lead is somewhere between 2.5 and 17. Not reassuring!
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It's possible but tough, I think the Labour and Lib vote will split fairly evenly here. Berger might make 2nd but with no BXP and Freer getting over 20,000 votes I don't think Berger's Jewisness and Remainyness is enough to get her over the line.ralphmalph said:
I think Berger.Brom said:
Umunna has the best chance IMO followed by Gyimah. Wollaston will hopefully be toast because its a 2 way contest. The best Lib Dem gains of the above will be in 3 way marginals.Stocky said:nunu2 said: "Your in a safe Tory seat. Dr. Sarah is not going to win it."
So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?0 -
ralphmalph said: "I think Berger."
That could be a good spot - LibDems are slight odds-on to win that seat.
I wouldn`t back at those odds though. Libdems 6.6% in 2017 and 3.3% in 2015.0 -
There must be someone out there who hasn't voted since Natural Law 92!MarqueeMark said:Did find somebody today who hadn't voted since sticking his X against the Referendum Party.
Thought he would probably get off his arse and vote for Boris.
Edit- or even better someone who says their last vote was for the Ecology Party0 -
It's not at all easy. I have to work at it.Big_G_NorthWales said:It is easy to like policies with no heed to cost and after todays freebies on education labour look like they are starting into their next 1.2 trillion
The cost of these policies is insane0 -
Is there anything going on at SpIn with constituency bets? I placed one at the weekend but it is now 'suspended' and the whole market seems to have gone AWOL.0
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Why not?FrancisUrquhart said:The difference in all these polls is the tory figure. Labour are going to get 30 come what may. If the tories only get 35/36 they are in trouble, yougov thinks they will break 40 (which i just can't see).
LD defectors spooked back and more brexit voters defecting to tories.0 -
LOLblueblue said:
What has the food done to them ?!?dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1194281918411481090
He was the future....0 -
I'm getting some very cryptic messages from CCHQ about tonight's party political broadcast.
Saying it will be like ntg we have ever seen before...
Man the lifeboats0 -
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Mr. 1983, the problem with the last manifesto wasn't not being focus grouped, it was being intensely and obviously stupid.
Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, everyone. And let's hope the weather improves.0 -
LD defectors spooked back to Boris - I really can't see any doing that.basicbridge said:
Why not?FrancisUrquhart said:The difference in all these polls is the tory figure. Labour are going to get 30 come what may. If the tories only get 35/36 they are in trouble, yougov thinks they will break 40 (which i just can't see).
LD defectors spooked back and more brexit voters defecting to tories.0 -
2017 Labour Leave voters prefer a Boris Government to a Corbyn government 54% to 46%.NickPalmer said:Figures aplenty from Ashcroft. Note inter alia:
"For voters as a whole, the most popular answer [to "What is the most important thing to happen?] is “more funding for public services like the NHS, schools, social care and the police,” followed by “action on a specific issue I care about other than Brexit,” and “having a good local MP, whatever their views on national politics.” “Getting Brexit done” was fourth overall..."
Now this isn't exactly fair, since that second option lumps everyone's favourite hobby-horses together. But it illustrates why some of us are finding that Brexit doesn't get raised on the doorstep much.
Note also that LibDem voters prefer Corbyn to Johnson by a 2-1 margin. But I'm cherry-picking - you'll find things to please Tories too.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/11/election-priorities-best-pm-preferred-government-trust-on-the-economy-best-party-on-brexit-introducing-my-general-election-dashboard/#more-16190
2017 Tory Remain voters prefer a Boris Government to a Corbyn government 89% to 11%.
Brexit Party voters back a Boris Government to a Corbyn government by 91% to 9%.
2 thirds of Leave voters name getting Brexit done as their top priority, for Remain voters the top priority is the NHS
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The objections to geographical sub-samples apply to other types of sub-samples too. As do the merits.NickPalmer said:Interesting stats in the Survation poll. Highlights:
* The lead is actually 5.5% (rounding to 6)
* Certainty to vote declines in proportion to income - maybe not surprising, but worth noting.
* Labour has a huge lead (10-16 points) among highly-educated people (levels 3-4) but is miles behind by a 2-1 margin among people with few or no qualifications.The archetypal Labour voter is a highly-educated person on a low income (yes, teachers and lecturers).
* Georgraphical subsample fans will find the SNP rampant in Scotland and terrible Labour polling, but Labour doing very well in the Midlands.
cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/12123703/6th-8th-November-Survation-Voting-Intention.xlsx1 -
(Not a serious post.)
There are some odd photos emerging of EdM following Corbyn around. He looks a broken man. Reminds me of that character in GoT - Greyjoy I think. Alarming!0 -
The Herald is about to buy The Scotsman.*
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
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Theon Greyjoy aka ReekOmnium said:(Not a serious post.)
There are some odd photos emerging of EdM following Corbyn around. He looks a broken man. Reminds me of that character in GoT - Greyjoy I think. Alarming!0 -
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixtiesStuartDickson said:The Herald is about to buy The Scotsman.*
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”0 -
That's the fella.dyedwoolie said:
Theon Greyjoy aka ReekOmnium said:(Not a serious post.)
There are some odd photos emerging of EdM following Corbyn around. He looks a broken man. Reminds me of that character in GoT - Greyjoy I think. Alarming!0 -
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.0 -
This is after removing TBP as an option in CON-held seats.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
CON should obviously be happy about the headline numbers, but it should be a disappointment that they're getting so little benefit from TBP being taken out compared to LAB. Since it's all CON-held seats TBP are leaving (not just marginals), the CON uplift will disproportionately consist of voters in safe CON seats0 -
Talks of landslides unnerve me and maybe you a little bitHYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Farage's move looks like a huge moment but until the results are revealed I intend keeping my feet on the ground.
That old expression 'once bitten, twice shy' comes very much to mind0 -
Quite marked differences in the Green vote. 4% in the YouGov and just 1% in the Survation .
I think the Lib Dems are in a bit of trouble . Looking at the Ashcroft poll. 92% of Labour Remainers from 2017 would rather see a Corbyn government .
I still think the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% by the GE , I’d go as low as 10% , the BP not standing in Tory seats is going to make life much more difficult for them .
I’d like to see them do well but I think things are moving against them .
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I do not think it is possible to know the exact effect of Farage's decisionStereotomy said:
This is after removing TBP as an option in CON-held seats.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
CON should obviously be happy about the headline numbers, but it should be a disappointment that they're getting so little benefit from TBP being taken out compared to LAB. Since it's all CON-held seats TBP are leaving (not just marginals), the CON uplift will disproportionately consist of voters in safe CON seats
I would expect that Farage's tacit approval of Boris deal is likely to see more break conservative than to labour0 -
Indeed.HYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5%
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%0 -
That poll gives a Tory landslide and is up to date, Survation is out of date as it was taken before Farage's announcement he was standing down BXP candidates in Tory seats.Stereotomy said:
This is after removing TBP as an option in CON-held seats.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
CON should obviously be happy about the headline numbers, but it should be a disappointment that they're getting so little benefit from TBP being taken out compared to LAB. Since it's all CON-held seats TBP are leaving (not just marginals), the CON uplift will disproportionately consist of voters in safe CON seats
Hence the BXP were on 10% with Survation and the Tories on 36% but the BXP only on 4% with Yougov and the Tories on 42%1 -
The difference is Boris is ruthless, charismatic and can campaign unlike poor Theresa and will not do gaffes like the Dementia TaxBig_G_NorthWales said:
Talks of landslides unnerve me and maybe you a little bitHYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Farage's move looks like a huge moment but until the results are revealed I intend keeping my feet on the ground.
That old expression 'once bitten, twice shy' comes very much to mind0 -
To be honest I do not see this GE following the 2017 oneBenpointer said:
Indeed.HYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5%
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%0 -
Boris takes off his energy maske......he's actually Cameron all this time!Luckyguy1983 said:0 -
We are still not under ‘fair’ news representation rules they only kick in on Friday. Will it make a difference I don’t know but Tory rampers for labour are doing a good job to scare people back to the blue side you see that on here most nights. They could be 15% in front but they will still tell you that the only way to avoid corbyn is vote for the amoral lying PM0
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Nor do I. But it will be interesting to see where it differs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not see this GE following the 2017 oneBenpointer said:
Indeed.HYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5%
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%
The Tory lead started to crumble 21 days ahead of the 2017 GE.0 -
It would be a more convincing argument if the Tories principal policy wasn't going to have an adverse impact of around 6% of GDP.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is easy to like policies with no heed to cost and after todays freebies on education labour look like they are starting into their next 1.2 trillionkinabalu said:
But I like the policies, is the point. Most of them anyway. Your description is merely a projection of your deeply subjective opinion that they will be disastrous. You said it's all "tribal". That is nonsense. It's about the policies.Casino_Royale said:Yes, you seem comfortable with supporting an extremist who wants to set classes against each other, threatens the absolute fundamentals of our national security and would take a scorched-earth approach to our economy, destroying any wealth and property that didn’t escape out the door first.
I’ve made my views on your support of that and desire to campaign for it very clear.
I can prove it to you.
Imagine Labour were offering big tax and spending cuts, NHS privatization and tight limits on immigration, and the Cons were offering increased tax & spend, more open borders and nationalization of the utilities.
I would vote Con. Of course I would.
Policies.
See?
The cost of these policies is insane
Choose your economic poison, or choose Lib Dems.0 -
2017 isn't the only recent election.Benpointer said:
Indeed.HYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5%
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%
Do you have the comparison for before GE15?0 -
Agreed, Boris’s gaffes will be completely different, but no less damaging. He is certainly ruthless.HYUFD said:
The difference is Boris is ruthless, charismatic and can campaign unlike poor Theresa and will not do gaffes like the Dementia TaxBig_G_NorthWales said:
Talks of landslides unnerve me and maybe you a little bitHYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Farage's move looks like a huge moment but until the results are revealed I intend keeping my feet on the ground.
That old expression 'once bitten, twice shy' comes very much to mind0 -
In the early sixties it was still a great national institution. The grave, authoritative voice of paternalist Scotia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixtiesStuartDickson said:The Herald is about to buy The Scotsman.*
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
Still was in the early seventies and eighties.
Now it is less serious than Viz and less authoritative than The Star.0 -
Good news for YOUGOV!
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!0 -
No GE follows the previous one, except perhaps 2001 which is an oddity. Largely speaking they are their own self-contained events, and pollsters have also usually changed or tweaked their methodology for each.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not see this GE following the 2017 oneBenpointer said:
Indeed.HYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5%
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%
I think the only thing I feel confident in predicting this time around is that it won’t be a Labour wipeout. That doesn’t mean the party won’t do badly.0 -
LibDems are the post-war consensus party. But clearly hardly anyone is choosing that.Foxy said:
It would be a more convincing argument if the Tories principal policy wasn't going to have an adverse impact of around 6% of GDP.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is easy to like policies with no heed to cost and after todays freebies on education labour look like they are starting into their next 1.2 trillionkinabalu said:
But I like the policies, is the point. Most of them anyway. Your description is merely a projection of your deeply subjective opinion that they will be disastrous. You said it's all "tribal". That is nonsense. It's about the policies.Casino_Royale said:Yes, you seem comfortable with supporting an extremist who wants to set classes against each other, threatens the absolute fundamentals of our national security and would take a scorched-earth approach to our economy, destroying any wealth and property that didn’t escape out the door first.
I’ve made my views on your support of that and desire to campaign for it very clear.
I can prove it to you.
Imagine Labour were offering big tax and spending cuts, NHS privatization and tight limits on immigration, and the Cons were offering increased tax & spend, more open borders and nationalization of the utilities.
I would vote Con. Of course I would.
Policies.
See?
The cost of these policies is insane
Choose your economic poison, or choose Lib Dems.0 -
I think it emphasises the point that BXP voters include a chunk of labour voters who can't/won't vote tory so when the BXP option is taken away, they go back home to the reds. We all know the BXP voters aren't just a simple chunk who will swing in to the Blue team if not given the BXP option...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not sure where the missing 3% has gonecontrarian said:
In that poll, labour is squeezing the libs in equal measure, but the Cons are only getting three of the BXP's six.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.0 -
Even The Grauniad has given up hope of a resurrection by The Jezziah:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/12/angela-rayner-lets-rip-as-jeremy-corbyn-dies-on-his-lips-labour-election-education0 -
Ok, this is definitely a very minor political story in the context of today, but of all the ones that there have been it seems one of the stupidest - why are the Tories considering selecting a convicted criminal (and a very recently convicted one) as their candidate in Ynys Mon? I'd rather think picking him for the recall by-election was all the personal loyalty that need be shown.0
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It was a national institution and she left it and went to 'Jenners' another Princes Street institution of it's day and just at the time my dear wife and I got engaged below the Scott Monument in Princes Street gardensStuartDickson said:
In the early sixties it was still a great national institution. The grave, authoritative voice of paternalist Scotia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixtiesStuartDickson said:The Herald is about to buy The Scotsman.*
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
Still was in the early seventies and eighties.
Now it is less serious than Viz and less authoritative than The Star.
So many happy memories of 'Auld Reekie'0 -
Neil took it down the drainStuartDickson said:
In the early sixties it was still a great national institution. The grave, authoritative voice of paternalist Scotia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixtiesStuartDickson said:The Herald is about to buy The Scotsman.*
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
Still was in the early seventies and eighties.
Now it is less serious than Viz and less authoritative than The Star.0 -
The other day someone was predicting that Watford might escape relegation...Ave_it said:Good news for YOUGOV!
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!0 -
Even the first JC was denied three times by supporters.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Even The Grauniad has given up hope of a resurrection by The Jezziah:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/12/angela-rayner-lets-rip-as-jeremy-corbyn-dies-on-his-lips-labour-election-education
That's a paraphrase of a real comment on LabourList in the 2017 election, I hope as a parody.0 -
Tories on 42% but when are they going to start their campaign?? Been non-existent.0
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Was that around the time of the loony we'll take away pensioner benefits " message?Benpointer said:
Nor do I. But it will be interesting to see where it differs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not see this GE following the 2017 oneBenpointer said:
Indeed.HYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5%
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%
The Tory lead started to crumble 21 days ahead of the 2017 GE.0 -
1-2 more weeks, and I think we can be pretty confident of whether this is 2017 all over again or not.Benpointer said:
Nor do I. But it will be interesting to see where it differs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not see this GE following the 2017 oneBenpointer said:
Indeed.HYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5%
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%
The Tory lead started to crumble 21 days ahead of the 2017 GE.0 -
Spurs fans are looking over our shoulders at them....SquareRoot said:
The other day someone was predicting that Watford might escape relegation...Ave_it said:Good news for YOUGOV!
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!0 -
I can't imagine PP broadcasts will have the impact they once did (if they ever did). In the era os smarts TVs, Netflix, etc, who is going to sit and listen to a message they are not receptive to? How many minds will it change?0
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They won't be as he will promise tax cuts and more spending not tax rises and spending cuts and with delivering Brexit on top that is all that matters to swing votersJonathan said:
Agreed, Boris’s gaffes will be completely different, but no less damaging. He is certainly ruthless.HYUFD said:
The difference is Boris is ruthless, charismatic and can campaign unlike poor Theresa and will not do gaffes like the Dementia TaxBig_G_NorthWales said:
Talks of landslides unnerve me and maybe you a little bitHYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Farage's move looks like a huge moment but until the results are revealed I intend keeping my feet on the ground.
That old expression 'once bitten, twice shy' comes very much to mind0 -
I'm sure they'll be squeezed nationally, but not as much as last time thanks to the Brexit and Corbyn factors. But they need to maintain a good national campaign to stop votes ebbing away in their 80 target seats. They need to maintain an average of 25-30% in those seats, and let local campaigning do the rest. I still think they'll get 30 seats, although Farage's decision has obviously made it harder.nico67 said:Quite marked differences in the Green vote. 4% in the YouGov and just 1% in the Survation .
I think the Lib Dems are in a bit of trouble . Looking at the Ashcroft poll. 92% of Labour Remainers from 2017 would rather see a Corbyn government .
I still think the Lib Dems will be lucky to poll 12% by the GE , I’d go as low as 10% , the BP not standing in Tory seats is going to make life much more difficult for them .
I’d like to see them do well but I think things are moving against them .0 -
I think the first debate in a weeks time will tell us a lot.kle4 said:
1-2 more weeks, and I think we can be pretty confident of whether this is 2017 all over again or not.Benpointer said:
Nor do I. But it will be interesting to see where it differs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not see this GE following the 2017 oneBenpointer said:
Indeed.HYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5%
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%
The Tory lead started to crumble 21 days ahead of the 2017 GE.2 -
POEMWAS - Ed Miliband looks very fed up. World class eye rolling.
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/11942925150101585920 -
Plenty of us have been canvassing and leafleting in marginals, me included and Boris is also touring the country and launched the campaign last week with a Birmingham rally.KentRising said:Tories on 42% but when are they going to start their campaign?? Been non-existent.
0 -
It's the John Crace sketch - not sure it's necessarily meant to convey the official Grauniad view, just saying.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Even The Grauniad has given up hope of a resurrection by The Jezziah:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/12/angela-rayner-lets-rip-as-jeremy-corbyn-dies-on-his-lips-labour-election-education0 -
Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
https://mobile.twitter.com/home0 -
Any SLab-activists out there? Behold and weep:
Best prices - Rutherglen and Hamilton West (Gerard Killen, Scottish Labour & Co-operative)
SNP 1/5 (shortening)
SLab 7/2
SCon 33/1
SLD 50/1
(I remember when this was a Tory seat.)0 -
Quite. Gaffes can have effect, but the positive stuff is harder to make effective.Cookie said:I can't imagine PP broadcasts will have the impact they once did (if they ever did). In the era os smarts TVs, Netflix, etc, who is going to sit and listen to a message they are not receptive to? How many minds will it change?
0 -
The 2017 voting stats suggest that the pensioners lapped it up. Their grandchildren were appalled!SquareRoot said:
Was that around the time of the loony we'll take away pensioner benefits " message?Benpointer said:
Nor do I. But it will be interesting to see where it differs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not see this GE following the 2017 oneBenpointer said:
Indeed.HYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5%
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%
The Tory lead started to crumble 21 days ahead of the 2017 GE.0 -
really?camel said:
The 2017 voting stats suggest that the pensioners lapped it up. Their grandchildren were appalled!SquareRoot said:
Was that around the time of the loony we'll take away pensioner benefits " message?Benpointer said:
Nor do I. But it will be interesting to see where it differs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not see this GE following the 2017 oneBenpointer said:
Indeed.HYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5%
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%
The Tory lead started to crumble 21 days ahead of the 2017 GE.0 -
I will wait until Friday 13th of all days. It sure is going to be unlucky for many but whokle4 said:
1-2 more weeks, and I think we can be pretty confident of whether this is 2017 all over again or not.Benpointer said:
Nor do I. But it will be interesting to see where it differs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not see this GE following the 2017 oneBenpointer said:
Indeed.HYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5%
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%
The Tory lead started to crumble 21 days ahead of the 2017 GE.0 -
"...tax cuts and more spending..."HYUFD said:
They won't be as he will promise tax cuts and more spending not tax rises and spending cuts and with delivering Brexit on top that is all that matters to swing votersJonathan said:
Agreed, Boris’s gaffes will be completely different, but no less damaging. He is certainly ruthless.HYUFD said:
The difference is Boris is ruthless, charismatic and can campaign unlike poor Theresa and will not do gaffes like the Dementia TaxBig_G_NorthWales said:
Talks of landslides unnerve me and maybe you a little bitHYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Farage's move looks like a huge moment but until the results are revealed I intend keeping my feet on the ground.
That old expression 'once bitten, twice shy' comes very much to mind
Whatever happened to sound financial management?0 -
Indeed a lot of my mates are Spurs fans, its been a golden season for taking the mick...Scrapheap_as_was said:
Spurs fans are looking over our shoulders at them....SquareRoot said:
The other day someone was predicting that Watford might escape relegation...Ave_it said:Good news for YOUGOV!
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!0 -
Apparently even though May was not a real Brexiter and was a terrible campaigner, and Boris is supposed to not have either flaw, he still cannot win without also going on a populist spending spree. It's the proof that even some of his staunchest supporters do not think he is awesome as they project.Benpointer said:
"...tax cuts and more spending..."HYUFD said:
They won't be as he will promise tax cuts and more spending not tax rises and spending cuts and with delivering Brexit on top that is all that matters to swing votersJonathan said:
Agreed, Boris’s gaffes will be completely different, but no less damaging. He is certainly ruthless.HYUFD said:
The difference is Boris is ruthless, charismatic and can campaign unlike poor Theresa and will not do gaffes like the Dementia TaxBig_G_NorthWales said:
Talks of landslides unnerve me and maybe you a little bitHYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Farage's move looks like a huge moment but until the results are revealed I intend keeping my feet on the ground.
That old expression 'once bitten, twice shy' comes very much to mind
Whatever happened to sound financial management?0 -
I love american primaries, everyone gets their turn in the spotlight, however momentarily.nunu2 said:Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
https://mobile.twitter.com/home
The only downside is how bloody long the process is.0 -
My mum and I visited Jenners last week. She is a former loyal, regular customer. She was absolutely horrified. The brand name might survive (briefly), but the institution is stone dead. Tragic to witness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was a national institution and she left it and went to 'Jenners' another Princes Street institution of it's day and just at the time my dear wife and I got engaged below the Scott Monument in Princes Street gardensStuartDickson said:
In the early sixties it was still a great national institution. The grave, authoritative voice of paternalist Scotia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixtiesStuartDickson said:The Herald is about to buy The Scotsman.*
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
Still was in the early seventies and eighties.
Now it is less serious than Viz and less authoritative than The Star.
So many happy memories of 'Auld Reekie'
Edinburgh is a conundrum. So much is outstanding. So much is total shite.
Don’t get me going on what they were doing under the Scott Monument.0 -
Unemployment is half 2010 levels and the deficit is down but a populist campaign is needed to win, more 2017 pain will loseBenpointer said:
"...tax cuts and more spending..."HYUFD said:
They won't be as he will promise tax cuts and more spending not tax rises and spending cuts and with delivering Brexit on top that is all that matters to swing votersJonathan said:
Agreed, Boris’s gaffes will be completely different, but no less damaging. He is certainly ruthless.HYUFD said:
The difference is Boris is ruthless, charismatic and can campaign unlike poor Theresa and will not do gaffes like the Dementia TaxBig_G_NorthWales said:
Talks of landslides unnerve me and maybe you a little bitHYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Farage's move looks like a huge moment but until the results are revealed I intend keeping my feet on the ground.
That old expression 'once bitten, twice shy' comes very much to mind
Whatever happened to sound financial management?1 -
Watford right back in contention! We are going to wear our Corbyn masks for all future games to scare off the opposition!SquareRoot said:
Indeed a lot of my mates are Spurs fans, its been a golden season for taking the mick...Scrapheap_as_was said:
Spurs fans are looking over our shoulders at them....SquareRoot said:
The other day someone was predicting that Watford might escape relegation...Ave_it said:Good news for YOUGOV!
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!
0 -
He doesn't need a majority to scupper things for the Tories, although obviously the Tories would be happy to take a 6% lead compared to last time.HYUFD said:
A 6% Tory lead with Survation is about the same as Cameron's 2010 and 2015 leads, hardly Corbyn majorityAve_it said:Good news for YOUGOV!
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!0 -
Agreed. Unless someone can come up with a video (PP broadcast or not) that goes viral for some reason.kle4 said:
Quite. Gaffes can have effect, but the positive stuff is harder to make effective.Cookie said:I can't imagine PP broadcasts will have the impact they once did (if they ever did). In the era os smarts TVs, Netflix, etc, who is going to sit and listen to a message they are not receptive to? How many minds will it change?
0 -
Tipping point.
David Coburn has announced he will now be supporting the BJ party in the GE.0 -
We visited a few months ago and is it does look tired in parts but the City is still magic to usStuartDickson said:
My mum and I visited Jenners last week. She is a former loyal, regular customer. She was absolutely horrified. The brand name might survive (briefly), but the institution is stone dead. Tragic to witness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was a national institution and she left it and went to 'Jenners' another Princes Street institution of it's day and just at the time my dear wife and I got engaged below the Scott Monument in Princes Street gardensStuartDickson said:
In the early sixties it was still a great national institution. The grave, authoritative voice of paternalist Scotia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixtiesStuartDickson said:The Herald is about to buy The Scotsman.*
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
Still was in the early seventies and eighties.
Now it is less serious than Viz and less authoritative than The Star.
So many happy memories of 'Auld Reekie'
Edinburgh is a conundrum. So much is outstanding. So much is total shite.
Don’t get me going on what they were doing under the Scott Monument.0 -
Besides, the 2015 Green Party musical number PPB has yet to be topped. What have the others got? Some cliched lines everyone has heard a million times before, things that are only scandals if not already an opponent, and maybe some celebrity saying how if you were raised decently like them, you'd vote for X?Cookie said:I can't imagine PP broadcasts will have the impact they once did (if they ever did). In the era os smarts TVs, Netflix, etc, who is going to sit and listen to a message they are not receptive to? How many minds will it change?
0 -
That's the crucial Bam demographic tied up then.Theuniondivvie said:Tipping point.
David Coburn has announced he will now be supporting the BJ party in the GE.0 -
Yepp. A journalist of very little brain.malcolmg said:
Neil took it down the drainStuartDickson said:
In the early sixties it was still a great national institution. The grave, authoritative voice of paternalist Scotia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixtiesStuartDickson said:The Herald is about to buy The Scotsman.*
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
Still was in the early seventies and eighties.
Now it is less serious than Viz and less authoritative than The Star.0 -
Who?Theuniondivvie said:Tipping point.
David Coburn has announced he will now be supporting the BJ party in the GE.0 -
I was at the Watford game on Friday night. We were awful and made them look better that they were. in 7 games Norwich have conceded 16 goals and scored 2 consolation goals. We even manage to make ManUre look good the other weekAve_it said:
Watford right back in contention! We are going to wear our Corbyn masks for all future games to scare off the opposition!SquareRoot said:
Indeed a lot of my mates are Spurs fans, its been a golden season for taking the mick...Scrapheap_as_was said:
Spurs fans are looking over our shoulders at them....SquareRoot said:
The other day someone was predicting that Watford might escape relegation...Ave_it said:Good news for YOUGOV!
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!0 -
Apologies - I typed that wrong. I meant the Tories winning most seats. The back price was 1.06 when I posted. It's now 1.07.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pierrot, sorry for the late reply, but is a Con majority actually 1.06?!
0 -
can you suggest a better way to avoid Corbyn?nichomar said:We are still not under ‘fair’ news representation rules they only kick in on Friday. Will it make a difference I don’t know but Tory rampers for labour are doing a good job to scare people back to the blue side you see that on here most nights. They could be 15% in front but they will still tell you that the only way to avoid corbyn is vote for the amoral lying PM
0 -
My great grandfather had the first electric vacuum cleaner in the city of Edinburgh.StuartDickson said:
My mum and I visited Jenners last week. She is a former loyal, regular customer. She was absolutely horrified. The brand name might survive (briefly), but the institution is stone dead. Tragic to witness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was a national institution and she left it and went to 'Jenners' another Princes Street institution of it's day and just at the time my dear wife and I got engaged below the Scott Monument in Princes Street gardensStuartDickson said:
In the early sixties it was still a great national institution. The grave, authoritative voice of paternalist Scotia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixtiesStuartDickson said:The Herald is about to buy The Scotsman.*
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
Still was in the early seventies and eighties.
Now it is less serious than Viz and less authoritative than The Star.
So many happy memories of 'Auld Reekie'
Edinburgh is a conundrum. So much is outstanding. So much is total shite.
Don’t get me going on what they were doing under the Scott Monument.
I have a very soft spot for the place. My grandmother spoke very precise Morningside (I was going to say broad Morningside, but Morningside isn't broad) her whole life, even 50 years after leaving the place.1 -
Useful corrective to all the piss and wind we spout in here and on Twitter. (Not sure of the source.. just saw the image tweeted). Bit sad really!
https://twitter.com/duncanrobinson/status/1194318050788610056?s=201 -
And let's face it, at least a couple of Mogg's points will be by virtue of people having heard of him.Harris_Tweed said:Useful corrective to all the piss and wind we spout in here and on Twitter. (Not sure of the source.. just saw the image tweeted). Bit sad really!
https://twitter.com/duncanrobinson/status/1194318050788610056?s=20
0 -
I stayed in digs in Morningside in 1960Cookie said:
My great grandfather had the first electric vacuum cleaner in the city of Edinburgh.StuartDickson said:
My mum and I visited Jenners last week. She is a former loyal, regular customer. She was absolutely horrified. The brand name might survive (briefly), but the institution is stone dead. Tragic to witness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was a national institution and she left it and went to 'Jenners' another Princes Street institution of it's day and just at the time my dear wife and I got engaged below the Scott Monument in Princes Street gardensStuartDickson said:
In the early sixties it was still a great national institution. The grave, authoritative voice of paternalist Scotia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixtiesStuartDickson said:The Herald is about to buy The Scotsman.*
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
Still was in the early seventies and eighties.
Now it is less serious than Viz and less authoritative than The Star.
So many happy memories of 'Auld Reekie'
Edinburgh is a conundrum. So much is outstanding. So much is total shite.
Don’t get me going on what they were doing under the Scott Monument.
I have a very soft spot for the place. My grandmother spoke very precise Morningside (I was going to say broad Morningside, but Morningside isn't broad) her whole life, even 50 years after leaving the place.0 -
I know the dialect, and the societal niche, very well. I was brought up in the Braid Hills and know Morningside like the back of my hand.Cookie said:
My great grandfather had the first electric vacuum cleaner in the city of Edinburgh.StuartDickson said:
My mum and I visited Jenners last week. She is a former loyal, regular customer. She was absolutely horrified. The brand name might survive (briefly), but the institution is stone dead. Tragic to witness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was a national institution and she left it and went to 'Jenners' another Princes Street institution of it's day and just at the time my dear wife and I got engaged below the Scott Monument in Princes Street gardensStuartDickson said:
In the early sixties it was still a great national institution. The grave, authoritative voice of paternalist Scotia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My sister used to work for the Scotsman in the early sixtiesStuartDickson said:The Herald is about to buy The Scotsman.*
Unionists eat Unionists. Patriots point and laugh.
(*according to BBC Radio Scotland; hilariously they added the detail that The Scotsman “wasn’t worth much”
Still was in the early seventies and eighties.
Now it is less serious than Viz and less authoritative than The Star.
So many happy memories of 'Auld Reekie'
Edinburgh is a conundrum. So much is outstanding. So much is total shite.
Don’t get me going on what they were doing under the Scott Monument.
I have a very soft spot for the place. My grandmother spoke very precise Morningside (I was going to say broad Morningside, but Morningside isn't broad) her whole life, even 50 years after leaving the place.
Unfortunately, as far as I can see, the old Morningside is long dead. I can’t even face visiting the place now.0 -
My take on it is it may seem Another day when Tories vacated the battlefield and allowed opponents to put ideas out there, but there were key moments about today that clearly points to the result.Luckyguy1983 said:
And let's face it, at least a couple of Mogg's points will be by virtue of people having heard of him.Harris_Tweed said:Useful corrective to all the piss and wind we spout in here and on Twitter. (Not sure of the source.. just saw the image tweeted). Bit sad really!
https://twitter.com/duncanrobinson/status/1194318050788610056?s=20
In case you missed it, Guardian pretty sceptical how it is going for Corbyn today, trying to break it gently to their readership that the bubble has burst and he’s going to lose big
“just anecdotally, the atmosphere is warm here, but the audience doesn’t seem quite as big, as young or as lively as the most memorable Labour events I went to during the 2017 campaign. Back then, some Corbyn fans were coming from miles around just to get a glimpse of their man. Labour campaigners I chatted to here said they were finding a lot of “undecideds” on the doorstep. Perhaps enthusiasm will build as we get closer to 12 December?”
Luke warm atmosphere, small crowds, voters in key seats in Blackpool politely uncommitted on the doorstep contrasts will the oomph, excitement, big crowds and star quality Boris is drawing in his grand tour. A picture is beginning to emerge now of the final result, isn’t it?0 -
While that's probably true, you're missing the fun here.MarqueeMark said:
All fail.Stocky said:nunu2 said: "Your in a safe Tory seat. Dr. Sarah is not going to win it."
So out of the defectors - Wollaston, Lee, Gyimah, Umunna, Sandbach, Berger, Angela Smith - who has the BEST chance of election? What odds all 7 fail?
Rank the defectors by size of loss, in votes. Use a negative number to indicate a win.
I can then work out who got closest, and send a prize :-)
0 -
Why is Corbyn wearing a poppy? Doesn't remembrance end on the 11th? If this were Johnson I imagine the Twitter fringe would be saying this proves it's old footage and he didn't really visit twice...dr_spyn said:POEMWAS - Ed Miliband looks very fed up. World class eye rolling.
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/11942925150101585920 -
That wasn't my recollection; it stopped my mum voting Tory (she's 76).SquareRoot said:
really?camel said:
The 2017 voting stats suggest that the pensioners lapped it up. Their grandchildren were appalled!SquareRoot said:
Was that around the time of the loony we'll take away pensioner benefits " message?Benpointer said:
Nor do I. But it will be interesting to see where it differs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest I do not see this GE following the 2017 oneBenpointer said:
Indeed.HYUFD said:
That Tory lead almost exactly matches Thatcher's 42.4% to 27.6% lead over Foot in 1983 except with the LDs polling 10% lower than the SDP/Alliance did. That is Tory landslide territory but obviously a long way to goBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+2)
LDM: 15% (-2)
BXP: 4% (-6)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 7-8 Nov.
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE19 = 11.5%
Tory average lead (last 6 polls) 30 days before GE17 was 18.2%
The Tory lead started to crumble 21 days ahead of the 2017 GE.0 -
Spludgfish - I suspect we will both be in the Championship next season. But hopefully it will be Villa, Southampton and someone else instead!spudgfsh said:
I was at the Watford game on Friday night. We were awful and made them look better that they were. in 7 games Norwich have conceded 16 goals and scored 2 consolation goals. We even manage to make ManUre look good the other weekAve_it said:
Watford right back in contention! We are going to wear our Corbyn masks for all future games to scare off the opposition!SquareRoot said:
Indeed a lot of my mates are Spurs fans, its been a golden season for taking the mick...Scrapheap_as_was said:
Spurs fans are looking over our shoulders at them....SquareRoot said:
The other day someone was predicting that Watford might escape relegation...Ave_it said:Good news for YOUGOV!
A few hours ago all us CONS on here were predicting CORBYN maj! Nasty Survation!!!
0
