politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

Gabs2 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Byronic said:

Horrifying survation poll.

The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.

They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.

The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.

The chances of Labour making 60-ish gains and forming a majority Corbyn government are nil.

The chances of Labour making a dozen gains, and the SNP the same, are only very slightly greater, and even if they did I suspect that the SNP would frustrate much of the Labour spending programme.

The chances of Labour stemming their losses, such that Tory losses to the SNP and the Lib Dems are sufficient to force Johnson from office are very slim, but in that case the Lib Dems would have a veto on Labour's political programme and would surely prevent most of it from being implemented. They will do only enough to ensure that such a government survives to hold a referendum. They won't be voting to nationalise the water companies, etc.

If Corbyn becomes Prime Minister he will be the weakest Prime Minister in history. His freedom to manoeuvre will be extremely limited.

I still expect him to lose dozens of seats and test the 200 barrier though. Seventy-five Liberal Democrats could be needed to prevent PM Johnson, and there's not much sign of them.

Corbyn could well win a majority. Tories are far too complacent, Momentum will have a great turnout operation, and British Left Wing voters do not give a damn about their Jewish compatriots.

Nah

Heard that BXP are withholding nominations until last minute …….. anyone heard of that being updated?

Seems like a negotiating tactic: eg Tories slowball 2 BXP targets, BXP withdraws from 20ish Lab leave seats.

Sean_F said:

Gabs2 said:

The graphical summary here is making me wonder about emigration again...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

I can't see very much to worry about. Averaging the most recent polls by 8 companies gives Conservative 38.5% to Labour 29%.

It is the trend lines that worry me.

https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1194247555116339200?s=21

Gabs2 said:

Sean_F said:

Gabs2 said:

The graphical summary here is making me wonder about emigration again...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

I can't see very much to worry about. Averaging the most recent polls by 8 companies gives Conservative 38.5% to Labour 29%.

It is the trend lines that worry me.

Trends peter out, usually.

Flanner said:

kinabalu said:

camel said:

272 + 49 SNP = JC4PM.
The budget currently is £300bn of someone else's money per seat gained.

You must await the "fully costed manifesto".


272, you think? I'm thinking a few less could still be made to work.

Begs an interesting question, if that were to happen, Cons most seats but Labour form a government - who has then "won" the great Christmas election of 2019?

The British people.

We get rid of Johnson. Swinson castrates Corbyn, so all he can do is call a referendum, get rid of Universal Credit, (possibly) send a (non-lethal) gunboat if China invades Guernsey and resign.
Then we have another election, with a respectable Centre-right leader (eg Hammond) back to run the Tories, a genuine social democrat running Labour, Swinson and Sturgeon as before and end up with a LibLab coalition, remaining in the Single Market but technically out of the EU

Simples.

The minor party in any coalition or supply & confidence arrangement gets screwed. Lib Dems in 2015, DUP in 2019, pretty much every example from the continent. Once Corbyn is PM, even if frustrated, Labour will blame problems on the minor parties not supporting him and he will win a majority at the next GE.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1194247555116339200?s=21

Nigel won't care. He'll be laughing all the way to the Lords.

algarkirk said:

GIN1138 said:

Byronic said:

GIN1138 said:

Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?

Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?

Yes I suppose so but I doubt Farage would want to pay for 250+ lost deposits.

If he hasn't withdrawn by the end of Thursday they'll be standing in those seats IMO.

If at 4 pm Thursday you don't have a valid nomination you can't stand. If at that time you do you must stand. You can't stand down even if you die. Though what happens if a dead person is elected I don't know.

By-election ASAP? If so then bizarrely it would actually be rational to vote for the dead person if one prefered the deceased person's party, to force another vote!

Edit - see @dyedwoolie has pointed out this does not happen

Time_to_Leave said:

It feels like the LibDems need to do something or say something to get in the news, especially if the court cases fall and they aren’t in the main debates.

They must have something eye catching in their manifesto, surely?

Difficult for the LDs to get attention when the main two parties are hogging the headlines with a succession of blunders and scandals.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Time_to_Leave said:

It feels like the LibDems need to do something or say something to get in the news, especially if the court cases fall and they aren’t in the main debates.

They must have something eye catching in their manifesto, surely?

Difficult for the LDs to get attention when the main two parties are hogging the headlines with a succession of blunders and scandals.

Maybe they should go with the “gay sex is a sin” angle again? It got them some press last time.

Gabs2 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Byronic said:

Horrifying survation poll.

The big risk in this election, for the Tories, was the possibility the Brexit vote would polarize rather than split. This seems to be happening. Remainers are holding noses and going Corbyn, in the hope of a hung parliament.

They may end up with an actual Corbyn government.

The only silver lining for Boris is this: If these polls continue to tighten Farage will yield again. He won’t have any choice.

The chances of Labour making 60-ish gains and forming a majority Corbyn government are nil.

The chances of Labour making a dozen gains, and the SNP the same, are only very slightly greater, and even if they did I suspect that the SNP would frustrate much of the Labour spending programme.

The chances of Labour stemming their losses, such that Tory losses to the SNP and the Lib Dems are sufficient to force Johnson from office are very slim, but in that case the Lib Dems would have a veto on Labour's political programme and would surely prevent most of it from being implemented. They will do only enough to ensure that such a government survives to hold a referendum. They won't be voting to nationalise the water companies, etc.

If Corbyn becomes Prime Minister he will be the weakest Prime Minister in history. His freedom to manoeuvre will be extremely limited.

I still expect him to lose dozens of seats and test the 200 barrier though. Seventy-five Liberal Democrats could be needed to prevent PM Johnson, and there's not much sign of them.

Corbyn could well win a majority. Tories are far too complacent, Momentum will have a great turnout operation, and British Left Wing voters do not give a damn about their Jewish compatriots.

Why not put £100 on a Corbyn majority? You'd make over £2k if it came in at present.

I'm on Corbyn Most seats at the moment

Tories +0, Labour + 490.

Hopefully a bit of "Day the polls turned" incoming

SandyRentool said:

Bird watching latest:

Apparently a black swan has been sighted swimming down a flooded street in South Yorkshire.

It took Bozo 5 days to see it.

He called a COBRA meeting, the reflex action of any PM wishing to create an appearance of 'doing something'.

Noo said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1194247555116339200?s=21

Magnifique

"Get Brexit done" of course means "Get Brexit started", so this divisive, bloody mess is set to run for years... and years... and years.

Unless, of course the Tories lose, in which case they will have received just punishment for inflicting their own bitter internal struggles on the rest of the country.

Peter_the_Punter said:

SandyRentool said:

Bird watching latest:

Apparently a black swan has been sighted swimming down a flooded street in South Yorkshire.

It took Bozo 5 days to see it.

He called a COBRA meeting, the reflex action of any PM wishing to create an appearance of 'doing something'.

I hate to be a pedant (that’s a lie) but it’s “COBR”.

Casino_Royale said:

Anabobazina said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.

Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.

The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.

That is also true to of any sane Tory voters.

We don't agree on much but I regard you as sane and intelligent, so I'm also keen to witness your cognitive dissonance in voting for a party with an odious clown as leader and a pig-thick hanger-flogger as home secretary.

True. But I live in a safe seat so I have some discretion.

I’ve said I’ll wait for the manifesto and how the campaign develops. I don’t rule out staying at home or spoiling my ballot.

Another option is voting Tory but underlining Damien Hinds name and saying ‘this vote is just for him’ on the paper.

If they want to count it as a spoiled ballot, so be it. It’ll give the returning officer something to do.

Fair enough – thanks for the reply.

Noo said:

blueblue said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.

Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.

The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.

It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?

You know, Tories look just as androidy to me. Both as bad as each other.

Do we lie to the fucking pollsters like clockwork?

Selebian said:

Flanner said:

kinabalu said:

camel said:

272 + 49 SNP = JC4PM.
The budget currently is £300bn of someone else's money per seat gained.

You must await the "fully costed manifesto".


272, you think? I'm thinking a few less could still be made to work.

Begs an interesting question, if that were to happen, Cons most seats but Labour form a government - who has then "won" the great Christmas election of 2019?

The British people.

We get rid of Johnson. Swinson castrates Corbyn, so all he can do is call a referendum, get rid of Universal Credit, (possibly) send a (non-lethal) gunboat if China invades Guernsey and resign.
Then we have another election, with a respectable Centre-right leader (eg Hammond) back to run the Tories, a genuine social democrat running Labour, Swinson and Sturgeon as before and end up with a LibLab coalition, remaining in the Single Market but technically out of the EU

Simples.

That does in fact sound very appealing.

Not sure how Lib-Lab coalition ends up out of EU though, even technically - kind of compromise that would make the LD's earlier compromise/sell out* on tuition fees look minor.

*delete according to personal viewpoint

I mean, the assumption is Labour would negotiate a soft Brexit and give if to Referendum (as is their policy) and the public would vote for it. Which I kinda assume would happen as well.

I mean, I'm more interested by the possible future of Corbyn and his Labour party putting lots of things to vote that are super popular (spending on NHS, renationalising the railways, regulating banks and big business) and just using it as a cudgel to beat the LDs with. Like, can the LDs, who consistently argue to centrists and lefties, that they are good on the environment vote down a Green New Deal? I just think Corbyn would lose those votes in any hung parliament, but be able to get the LDs to show themselves to be mostly Wet Tories. If Corbyn is PM, something bad is going on with the Tories anyway, so unlikely they can turn things around and win in 6 months / a year.

A Corbyn led Labour party delivers a (soft) Brexit, after hammering the LDs on the left, calls an election. I could see that winning big...

BUT we would need to see Corbyn in No 10 first, and I still think that is highly unlikely.

148grss said:

Casino_Royale said:

Anabobazina said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.

Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.

The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.

That is also true to of any sane Tory voters.

We don't agree on much but I regard you as sane and intelligent, so I'm also keen to witness your cognitive dissonance in voting for a party with an odious clown as leader and a pig-thick hanger-flogger as home secretary.

True. But I live in a safe seat so I have some discretion.

I’ve said I’ll wait for the manifesto and how the campaign develops. I don’t rule out staying at home or spoiling my ballot.

Another option is voting Tory but underlining Damien Hinds name and saying ‘this vote is just for him’ on the paper.

If they want to count it as a spoiled ballot, so be it. It’ll give the returning officer something to do.

I do wonder how far you're allowed to spoil the ballot, as long as you make it very clear how you're voting. Like, I want to find the definition of a spoilt ballot and make a ballot as close to spoilt as possible just so I can imagine the tellers arguing about it for ages.

I have a friend who tells me he once convinced the RO to accept a ballot that just had a male member drawn in one box as a "clear preference" for a specific candidate...

Any fule kno that a crudely drawn cock in the box counts as a vote. It's a fairly frequent occurrence, I'm assured.

dyedwoolie said:

algarkirk said:

GIN1138 said:

Byronic said:

GIN1138 said:

Closing dates for candidates to enter or withdraw from the election is Thursday so we'll know if Nigel intends to stand down the rest of the BXP candidates within the next two days?

Surely you can withdraw any time? You just lose your deposit, if you do it late. Isn’t that the idea?

Yes I suppose so but I doubt Farage would want to pay for 250+ lost deposits.

If he hasn't withdrawn by the end of Thursday they'll be standing in those seats IMO.

If at 4 pm Thursday you don't have a valid nomination you can't stand. If at that time you do you must stand. You can't stand down even if you die. Though what happens if a dead person is elected I don't know.

I think if there is a death it is postponed and run as a by election in the new parliament, cf Skipton and Ripon in 2010?

It was actually Thirsk and Malton. I remember going there to campaign after the general election. Lots of residents couldn't see why they were bothering as a government had been formed by then. I spent a lot of time explaining that they still needed a representative.

Noo said:

blueblue said:

Noo said:

blueblue said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.

Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.

The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.

It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?

You know, Tories look just as androidy to me. Both as bad as each other.

Do we lie to the fucking pollsters like clockwork?

Probably. Tories lie about most else.

Care to say which party of non-liars you're voting for?

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1194281918411481090

He was the future....

Nigel_Foremain said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

SandyRentool said:

Bird watching latest:

Apparently a black swan has been sighted swimming down a flooded street in South Yorkshire.

It took Bozo 5 days to see it.

He called a COBRA meeting, the reflex action of any PM wishing to create an appearance of 'doing something'.

I hate to be a pedant (that’s a lie) but it’s “COBR”.

I think you will find it is Cabinet Office Briefing Room A

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_Office_Briefing_Rooms

It is often mistakenly referred to as COBRA by journalists and other commentators who confuse the facility with the old Treasury Board Room - "Conference Room A" - located in Kent's Treasury

TOPPING said:

blueblue said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.

Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.

The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.

It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?

Because people don't care and/or have a laugh and/or don't have time to think about it. Right up until they are in the ballot box with pencil in hand.

I was a presiding officer at the European elections. I was somewhat taken aback by the number of people who came in to the polling station still seemingly dithering over who to vote for.

Jason said:

Isn't this strategy of releasing a manifesto just 2 weeks before polling day a huge risk for the Tories? Labour release theirs and hog all of the headlines for quite a while. Honey for everyone paid for by nasty billionaires and Amazon. Hhhmmm. That worries me more than a couple of opinion polls showing a 'squeeze' comfortably within a margin of error.

I'm guessing the logic is that Labour's trillions will make a big splash regardless, therefore instead of being drowned out the Tories wait for the initial wave to subside, so they get more attention and their message is fresher in the last fortnight. It's a risk, like everything else.

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Model updated with latest Survation poll (models runs off these polls - also updated Welsh and Scottish polls while I was at it). Back in hung parliament territory even with BXP not standing in Con seats. CON 320; LAB 234: LD 23; BXP 0; GRN 1; SNP 50; PC 4. If Survation are still the Gold Standard then Tories should be worried.

Interesting because materially different to the betting spreads. I have positive MTM on my (long Con) positions and am agonizing about whether to close or run them. Your model says close at least partially. Perhaps I ought to. If I don't and they turn into losses my pleasure at Boris falling short would be rather soiled.

Perhaps the betting markets are factoring in a further Farage retreat, or look at the full range of pollsters rather than just one (that is relatively favourable to Labour). Or maybe they are slow to respond? After all, my model was very similar to the betting spreads before I updated it with this poll. DYOR applies as always!

Impossible to find fault with this -

https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1194203810937409536

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1194270395555299330

Boris has got Farage and Verhofstat singing the praises of his deal?

Anabobazina said:

148grss said:

Casino_Royale said:

Anabobazina said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.

Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.

The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.

That is also true to of any sane Tory voters.

We don't agree on much but I regard you as sane and intelligent, so I'm also keen to witness your cognitive dissonance in voting for a party with an odious clown as leader and a pig-thick hanger-flogger as home secretary.

True. But I live in a safe seat so I have some discretion.

I’ve said I’ll wait for the manifesto and how the campaign develops. I don’t rule out staying at home or spoiling my ballot.

Another option is voting Tory but underlining Damien Hinds name and saying ‘this vote is just for him’ on the paper.

If they want to count it as a spoiled ballot, so be it. It’ll give the returning officer something to do.

I do wonder how far you're allowed to spoil the ballot, as long as you make it very clear how you're voting. Like, I want to find the definition of a spoilt ballot and make a ballot as close to spoilt as possible just so I can imagine the tellers arguing about it for ages.

I have a friend who tells me he once convinced the RO to accept a ballot that just had a male member drawn in one box as a "clear preference" for a specific candidate...

Any fule kno that a crudely drawn cock in the box counts as a vote. It's a fairly frequent occurrence, I'm assured.

the best way is a large cock drawn across all possibilities

Cookie said:

dr_spyn said:

NEC mates' rates.

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1194281002501365761

One of my minor linguistic irritations is the term 'born and bred'. It does not mean 'born and raised', which is what people who use it usually mean. It is possible that Claudia Webbe was 'bred' in Leicester but perhaps that is a level of detail too far for an election tweet.
Of course, she may mean her parents were from here, and their parents were from here, and so on. But I suspect she means 'born and raised'.

This is one of many linguistic battles I fear I am losing.

I'll join forces with you if you assist me in eliminating 'this moment in time'.

Really bad the GENOCIDE taking place in China. Even worse no Muslim majority country has said a thing about it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/arslan_hidayat/status/1194230303126151170

Cookie said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

SandyRentool said:

Bird watching latest:

Apparently a black swan has been sighted swimming down a flooded street in South Yorkshire.

It took Bozo 5 days to see it.

He called a COBRA meeting, the reflex action of any PM wishing to create an appearance of 'doing something'.

I hate to be a pedant (that’s a lie) but it’s “COBR”.

I thought it was an acronym for 'Cabinet Office Briefing Room A'. Presumably there is a COBRB and COBRC for less important/exciting sounding matters.

Here's another interesting acronym -

C - Communist
O - Offering
R - Reaches
B - Britain
Y - Yesterday's
N - News

You know the SNP line about how Scots are open and welcoming to immigration (unlike those English xenophobes)?

Horsefeathers...

http://britainelects.com/2019/11/12/british-attitudes-towards-immigration-are-relatively-similar-across-the-union-despite-brexit-divisions/

Cookie said:

dr_spyn said:

NEC mates' rates.

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1194281002501365761

One of my minor linguistic irritations is the term 'born and bred'. It does not mean 'born and raised', which is what people who use it usually mean. It is possible that Claudia Webbe was 'bred' in Leicester but perhaps that is a level of detail too far for an election tweet.
Of course, she may mean her parents were from here, and their parents were from here, and so on. But I suspect she means 'born and raised'.

This is one of many linguistic battles I fear I am losing.

I think that's because you're wrong about "bred"

breed (v.)
Old English bredan "bring (young) to birth, procreate," also "cherish, keep warm," from West Germanic *brodjan (source also of Old High German bruoten, German brüten "to brood, hatch"), from *brod- "fetus, hatchling," from PIE root *bhreu- "to boil, bubble, effervesce, burn." The etymological notion is incubation, warming to hatch.
Intransitive sense "come into being" is from c. 1200; that of "beget or bear offspring" is from mid-13c. Of livestock, etc., "procure by the mating of parents and rear for use," mid-14c. Sense of "grow up, be reared" (in a clan, etc.) is late 14c.; meaning "form by education" is from mid-15c.
https://www.etymonline.com/word/breed

Jason said:

Actually, I might put £100 on a Corbyn majority myself! That way, if it happens, the 2 grand will soften the blow a bit. If I lose, there's a very good chance he won't be PM! Win win!

£3300 with Betfair Exchange. So, take a fabulous 2 week hol to the Maldives and - speaking of "win wins" - when you get back Water will be under public ownership and Toby Young will have moved to Dubai.

https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1194289445459185670?s=20

blueblue said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.

Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.

The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.

It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?

Some of us have made this point repeatedly.

nico67 said:

It’s strange seeing some Tory supporters in here go into a blind panic over one poll..

On "wobbly Wednesday" one MP was heard to observe that the "Tories only ever panic in a crisis"

kinabalu said:

Jason said:

Actually, I might put £100 on a Corbyn majority myself! That way, if it happens, the 2 grand will soften the blow a bit. If I lose, there's a very good chance he won't be PM! Win win!

£3300 with Betfair Exchange. So, take a fabulous 2 week hol to the Maldives and - speaking of "win wins" - when you get back Water will be under public ownership and Toby Young will have moved to Dubai.

Yep saw that. I'm seriously tempted. It's a bet I would enjoy losing.

blueblue said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.

Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.

The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.

It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?

You raise a very good question.

blueblue said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.

Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.

The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.

It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?

We're used to the idea that government have awful mid-term polls and then pick up. This is possibly a variant of the same thing, because Brexit has dominated the agenda for years and Labour's position on that has been, uh, complicated. Now Labour has reached a reasonably defensible Brexit position AND the public debate has partly moved on from Brexit, things are evening up again ...a bit. If I were a Tory I'd still be pretty confident.

BTW, from my totally biased perspective, the other parties don't seem to have been prepared for the election not being just about Brexit. Conservative policy on non-Brexit issues is barely trying to be credible (deficit, who cares, we'll spend lots, we'll build 30 hospitals, well maybe 4 hospitals, whatever, no you can't have the details). LibDem policy outside Brexit and President Swinson is largely AWOL in their literature so far.

blueblue said:

nico67 said:

It’s strange seeing some Tory supporters in here go into a blind panic over one poll.

I can’t see Bozo making the errors that May did and I’m sure the manifesto will be one which has nothing controversial.

Unless the Tories do something really stupid it’s their election to lose. I’d love to see the back of the Tories but my head says they’ll get a decent majority .

The problem is that a lot of voters the Tories need are, frankly, self-indulgent and easily distracted. Tory Remainers say, "Ooh, I'm not sure about this thing with Nigel, maybe I'll go Lib Dem instead". BXP voters say "Ooh, I want Brexit, so BXP must be the best way to get it, never mind what the polls say".

Meanwhile LAB voters just go "Ooh, trillions of free stuff from Corbyn? Then it's Labour all the way!"

The tory critique of Corbyn has been pretty lacklustre, to my mind. The public knows Boris is going to be spending more money too.

Jason said:

kinabalu said:

Jason said:

Actually, I might put £100 on a Corbyn majority myself! That way, if it happens, the 2 grand will soften the blow a bit. If I lose, there's a very good chance he won't be PM! Win win!

£3300 with Betfair Exchange. So, take a fabulous 2 week hol to the Maldives and - speaking of "win wins" - when you get back Water will be under public ownership and Toby Young will have moved to Dubai.

Yep saw that. I'm seriously tempted. It's a bet I would enjoy losing.

The disappointment of Leave winning was mitigated a tadge for many PB Remainers thanks to @AndyJS' magnificent spreadsheet which meant we backed Leave at all prices throughout the night.

NickPalmer said:

blueblue said:

Casino_Royale said:

Labour will do well enough. Almost everyone who’s currently “don’t know” or hates Corbyn but is red-ish by tradition will peg their nose and still vote Labour on the day itself.

Their vote is utterly tribal and they just can’t help themselves.

The contortions of cognitive dissonance used to justify the votes will no doubt be interesting to see and read though.

It's utterly ridiculous. WTF is the point of political polling at all if Labour gets historically shit ratings all year round but as soon as an election is actually called the androids just wipe their memories and power back up?

We're used to the idea that government have awful mid-term polls and then pick up. This is possibly a variant of the same thing, because Brexit has dominated the agenda for years and Labour's position on that has been, uh, complicated. Now Labour has reached a reasonably defensible Brexit position AND the public debate has partly moved on from Brexit, things are evening up again ...a bit. If I were a Tory I'd still be pretty confident.

BTW, from my totally biased perspective, the other parties don't seem to have been prepared for the election not being just about Brexit. Conservative policy on non-Brexit issues is barely trying to be credible (deficit, who cares, we'll spend lots, we'll build 30 hospitals, well maybe 4 hospitals, whatever, no you can't have the details). LibDem policy outside Brexit and President Swinson is largely AWOL in their literature so far.

Your last point may well be true, but I'm no less thunderstruck about it. How much would it cost to hire a pair of clever young graduates whose only job would be to sit in a back office and come up with popular and at least plausible policies on all these issues, all day every day? What are these parties spending their money on? What research do they actually do?

TOPPING said:

Jason said:

kinabalu said:

Jason said:

Actually, I might put £100 on a Corbyn majority myself! That way, if it happens, the 2 grand will soften the blow a bit. If I lose, there's a very good chance he won't be PM! Win win!

£3300 with Betfair Exchange. So, take a fabulous 2 week hol to the Maldives and - speaking of "win wins" - when you get back Water will be under public ownership and Toby Young will have moved to Dubai.

Yep saw that. I'm seriously tempted. It's a bet I would enjoy losing.

The disappointment of Leave winning was mitigated a tadge for many PB Remainers thanks to @AndyJS' magnificent spreadsheet which meant we backed Leave at all prices throughout the night.

Indeed, although the scale of my winnings was compromised somewhat when, in a whisky-addled haze at 1am, I shovelled even more on Leave only to realise three minutes later I'd actually piled on Remain – and thus spent the next few minutes frantically trying my best to lay it off.

There's a moral there somewhere.

Cookie said:

One of my minor linguistic irritations is the term 'born and bred'. It does not mean 'born and raised', which is what people who use it usually mean. It is possible that Claudia Webbe was 'bred' in Leicester but perhaps that is a level of detail too far for an election tweet.
Of course, she may mean her parents were from here, and their parents were from here, and so on. But I suspect she means 'born and raised'.

This is one of many linguistic battles I fear I am losing.

Born and bred in X to me means that you were born in X and so were your family going back generations. For example, I was born and bred in South Yorkshire. As it happens I was also born and raised in South Yorkshire but that is different. If, for example, I had moved from there to London at the age of 2, instead of at 18, I would still say to people - if I was the sort to come out with this type of thing - that I was born and bred in South Yorkshire. And I think I would be within my rights to do so.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1194289797977821185?s=20

The Labour Leave voter numbers make grim reading for Labour.

On the other hand Lib Dem voters seem ripe for a tactical vote for Labour as the squeeze continues.

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

Jason said:

kinabalu said:

Jason said:

Actually, I might put £100 on a Corbyn majority myself! That way, if it happens, the 2 grand will soften the blow a bit. If I lose, there's a very good chance he won't be PM! Win win!

£3300 with Betfair Exchange. So, take a fabulous 2 week hol to the Maldives and - speaking of "win wins" - when you get back Water will be under public ownership and Toby Young will have moved to Dubai.

Yep saw that. I'm seriously tempted. It's a bet I would enjoy losing.

The disappointment of Leave winning was mitigated a tadge for many PB Remainers thanks to @AndyJS' magnificent spreadsheet which meant we backed Leave at all prices throughout the night.

Indeed, although the scale of my winnings was compromised somewhat when, in a whisky-addled haze at 1am, I shovelled even more on Leave only to realise three minutes later I'd actually piled on Remain – and thus spent the next few minutes frantically trying my best to lay it off.

There's a moral there somewhere.

LOL! We've all been there!